US ECONOMICS

EMPLOYMENT

DoL. BLS. June 5, 2020. THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- MAY 2020

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate 
declined to 13.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These
improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity
that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
and efforts to contain it. In May, employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality,
construction, education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment
in government continued to decline sharply.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey
measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.
The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.
For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two
surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 1.4 percentage points to 13.3 percent in May, and
the number of unemployed persons fell by 2.1 million to 21.0 million. Reflecting the
effects of the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to contain it, the unemployment rate
and the number of unemployed persons are up by 9.8 percentage points and 15.2 million,
respectively, since February. (See table A-1. For more information about how the
household survey and its measures were affected by the coronavirus pandemic, see the
box note at the end of the news release.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates declined in May for adult men
(11.6 percent), adult women (13.9 percent), Whites (12.4 percent), and Hispanics (17.6
percent). The jobless rates for teenagers (29.9 percent), Blacks (16.8 percent), and
Asians (15.0 percent) showed little change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2,
and A-3.)

The number of unemployed persons who were on temporary layoff decreased by 2.7 million
in May to 15.3 million, following a sharp increase of 16.2 million in April. Among
those not on temporary layoff, the number of permanent job losers continued to rise,
increasing by 295,000 in May to 2.3 million. (See table A-11.)

In May, the number of unemployed persons who were jobless less than 5 weeks decreased
by 10.4 million to 3.9 million. These individuals made up 18.5 percent of the
unemployed. The number of unemployed persons who were jobless 5 to 14 weeks rose by
7.8 million to 14.8 million, accounting for about 70.8 percent of the unemployed. The
number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.2 million,
increased by 225,000 over the month and represented 5.6 percent of the unemployed.
(See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate increased by 0.6 percentage point in May to 60.8
percent, following a decrease of 2.5 percentage points in April. Total employment,
as measured by the household survey, rose by 3.8 million in May to 137.2 million,
following a large decline in April. After an 8.7 percentage-point decline in April,
the employment-population ratio rose by 1.5 percentage points to 52.8 percent in
May. (See table A-1.)

In May, the number of persons who usually work full time increased by 2.2 million
to 116.5 million, and the number who usually work part time rose by 1.6 million to
20.7 million. Part-time workers accounted for about two-fifths of the over-the-month
employment growth. (See table A-9.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 10.6 million,
changed little in May, but is up by 6.3 million since February. These individuals,
who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their
hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. This group
includes persons who usually work full time and persons who usually work part time.
(See table A-8.)

The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 9.0
million, declined by 954,000 in May, after increasing by 4.4 million in April. These
individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking
for work during the last 4 weeks or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Persons marginally attached to the labor force--a subset of persons not in the labor
force who currently want a job--numbered 2.4 million in May, little different from
the prior month. These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were
available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had
not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Discouraged workers, a
subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them,
numbered 662,000 in May, also little changed from the previous month. (See Summary
table A.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2.5 million in May, reflecting a
limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus
pandemic and efforts to contain it. Employment fell by 1.4 million and 20.7 million,
respectively, in March and April. Despite the over-the-month increase, nonfarm
employment in May was 13 percent below its February level. Large employment increases
occurred in May in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services,
and retail trade. Government employment continued to decline sharply. (See table B-1.
For more information about how the establishment survey and its measures were affected
by the coronavirus pandemic, see the box note at the end of the news release.)

In May, employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 1.2 million, following losses
of 7.5 million in April and 743,000 in March. Over the month, employment in food
services and drinking places rose by 1.4 million, accounting for about half of the gain
in total nonfarm employment. May's gain in food services and drinking places followed
steep declines in April and March (-6.1 million combined). In contrast, employment in
the accommodation industry fell in May (-148,000) and has declined by 1.1 million since
February.

Construction employment increased by 464,000 in May, gaining back almost half of
April's decline (-995,000). Much of the gain occurred in specialty trade contractors
(+325,000), with growth about equally split between the residential and nonresidential
components. Job gains also occurred in construction of buildings (+105,000), largely in
residential building.

Employment increased by 424,000 in education and health services in May, after a
decrease of 2.6 million in April. Health care employment increased by 312,000 over the
month, with gains in offices of dentists (+245,000), offices of other health
practitioners (+73,000), and offices of physicians (+51,000). Elsewhere in health care,
job losses continued in nursing and residential care facilities (-37,000) and hospitals
(-27,000). Employment increased in the social assistance industry (+78,000), reflecting
increases in child day care services (+44,000) and individual and family services
(+29,000). Employment in private education rose by 33,000 over the month.

In May, employment in retail trade rose by 368,000, after a loss of 2.3 million in
April. Over-the-month job gains occurred in clothing and clothing accessories stores
(+95,000), automobile dealers (+85,000), and general merchandise stores (+84,000). By
contrast, job losses continued in electronics and appliance stores (-95,000) and in
auto parts, accessories, and tire stores (-36,000).

Employment increased in the other services industry in May (+272,000), following a
decline of 1.3 million in April. About two-thirds of the May increase occurred in
personal and laundry services (+182,000).

In May, manufacturing employment rose by 225,000, with gains about evenly split between
the durable and nondurable goods components. In April, manufacturing employment
declined by 1.3 million, with about two-thirds of the loss occurring in the durable
goods component. Within durable goods, employment gains in May were led by motor
vehicles and parts (+28,000), fabricated metal products (+25,000), and machinery
(+23,000). Within nondurable goods, job gains occurred in plastics and rubber products
(+30,000) and food manufacturing (+25,000).

Professional and business services added 127,000 jobs in May, after shedding 2.2 million
jobs in April. Over the month, employment rose in services to buildings and dwellings
(+68,000) and temporary help services (+39,000), while employment declined in management
of companies and enterprises (-22,000).

Financial activities added 33,000 jobs over the month, following a loss of 264,000 jobs
in April. In May, employment gains occurred in real estate and rental and leasing
(+24,000) and in credit intermediation and related activities (+7,000).

Wholesale trade employment was up by 21,000 in May, largely reflecting job gains in its
nondurable goods component (+13,000). In April, wholesale trade employment declined by
383,000.

In May, employment continued to decline in government (-585,000), following a drop of
963,000 in April. Employment in local government was down by 487,000 in May. Local
government education accounted for almost two-thirds of the decrease (-310,000),
reflecting school closures. Employment also continued to decline in state government
(-84,000), particularly in state education (-63,000).

Employment in information fell by 38,000 in May, following a decline of 272,000 in April.

Mining continued to lose jobs in May (-20,000), with most of the decline occurring in
support activities for mining (-16,000). Mining employment has declined by 77,000 over
the past 3 months.

Employment in transportation and warehousing decreased in May (-19,000), after an April
decline of 553,000. Air transportation lost 50,000 jobs over the month, following a
loss of 79,000 jobs in April. In May, employment rose by 12,000 in couriers and
messengers and 10,000 in transit and ground passenger transportation.

In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell by
29 cents to $29.75, following a gain of $1.35 in April. Average hourly earnings of
private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees decreased by 14 cents to $25.00
in May. The decreases in average hourly earnings largely reflect job gains among lower-
paid workers; this change put downward pressure on the average hourly earnings estimates.
(See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.5 hour
to 34.7 hours in May. In manufacturing, the workweek rose by 0.8 hour to 38.9 hours, and
overtime increased by 0.3 hour to 2.4 hours. The average workweek for production and
nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.6 hour to 34.1 hours.
While employees in most industries saw an increase in their workweeks in May, the
employment changes, especially in industries with shorter workweeks, complicate monthly
comparisons of the average weekly hours estimates. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down by 492,000,
from -881,000 to -1.4 million, and the change for April was revised down by 150,000,
from -20.5 million to -20.7 million. With these revisions, employment in March and
April  combined was 642,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result
from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last
published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. A methodological
change to the establishment survey's birth-death model contributed to the revision for
March. For more information, see the box note at the end of the news release.) After
revisions, job losses have averaged 6.5 million per month over the past 3 months.
_______________________________________________________________________________________

 |            |
 |            |
 |   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on May 2020 Establishment and Household Survey Data   |
 |            |
 |            |
 | Data collection for both surveys was affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. |
 | In the establishment survey, approximately one-fifth of the data is collected at four |
 | regional data collection centers. Although these centers were closed, about three-    |
 | quarters of the interviewers at these centers worked remotely to collect data by      |
 | telephone. Additionally, BLS encouraged businesses to report electronically. The      |
 | collection rate for the establishment survey in May was 69 percent, slightly lower    |
 | than collection rates prior to the pandemic. The household survey is generally        |
 | collected through in-person and telephone interviews, but personal interviews were    |
 | not conducted for the safety of interviewers and respondents. The household survey    |
 | response rate, at 67 percent, was about 15 percentage points lower than in months     |
 | prior to the pandemic.          |
 |            |
 | In the establishment survey, workers who are paid by their employer for all or any    |
 | part of the pay period including the 12th of the month are counted as employed, even  |
 | if they were not actually at their jobs. Workers who are temporarily or permanently   |
 | absent from their jobs and are not being paid are not counted as employed, even if    |
 | they are continuing to receive benefits.        |
 |            |
 | The estimation methods used in the establishment survey were the same for May as they |
 | were for April. However, after further research, BLS extended the modifications that  |
 | were made to the April birth-death model back to March, which accounted for a portion |
 | of the revision to March data. For more information, see      |
 | www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-may-2020.pdf.    |
 |            |
 | In the household survey, individuals are classified as employed, unemployed, or not   |
 | in the labor force based on their answers to a series of questions about their        |
 | activities during the survey reference week (May 10th through May 16th). Workers who  |
 | indicate they were not working during the entire survey reference week and expect to  |
 | be recalled to their jobs should be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. In  |
 | May, a large number of persons were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff.     |
 |            |
 | However, there was also a large number of workers who were classified as employed but |
 | absent from work. As was the case in March and April, household survey interviewers   |
 | were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-     |
 | related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent  |
 | that not all such workers were so classified. BLS and the Census Bureau are           |
 | investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking      |
 | additional steps to address the issue.       |
 |            |
 | If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other       |
 | reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had    |
 | been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate      |
 | would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally   |
 | adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data from the household    |
 | survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are    |
 | taken to reclassify survey responses.        |
 |            |
 | More information is available at         |
 | www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-may-2020.pdf.    |
 |            |
 |_______________________________________________________________________________________|

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

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ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRAZIL ECONOMICS

PIB

FGV. IBRE. 03/06/2020. Atividade Econômica aponta retração de 7,0% da economia em abril

O IAE-FGV – 1ª Prévia, aponta retração de 7,0% da atividade econômica em abril, em comparação a março. Este resultado mostra o impacto negativo gerado pela COVID-19 na economia brasileira, no primeiro mês completo de isolamento social. Na análise interanual a queda registrada em abril foi de 10,9%. Ambas as taxas foram recorde de retração nestas comparações considerando a série histórica iniciada em 2000.

Os maiores impactos negativos foram sentidos nas atividades industriais e de serviços, que apresentaram recordes de retração em abril, na análise interanual. As quedas mais acentuadas na indústria total foram na transformação seguida da construção; e, nos serviços as maiores quedas foram no comércio, nos transportes e em outros serviços. À exceção da construção, todas as demais atividades citadas apresentaram as maiores retrações de suas respectivas séries históricas.

No trimestre móvel, o indicador aponta retração de 5,0% no trimestre em abril, em relação ao trimestre findo em janeiro e de 3,7% na comparação interanual.

O IAE-FGV é um indicador que antecipa a tendência da economia brasileira a partir da divulgação de três versões com base na divulgação das principais pesquisas mensais de atividade divulgadas pelo IBGE. As principais informações para a atualização do indicador são: Pesquisa Industrial Mensal – Produção Física (PIM-PF); Pesquisa Mensal de Comércio (PMC) e; Pesquisa Mensal de Serviços (PMS).

DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/noticias/atividade-economica-aponta-retracao-de-70-da-economia-em-abril

INDÚSTRIA

CNI. 05/06/2020. Desempenho da pequena indústria bate recorde negativo. Com recuo de 4,1 pontos, o Índice de Desempenho da Pequena Indústria ficou em 27,1 pontos em abril, menor patamar da série histórica. A falta de demanda, resultado das restrições impostas ao comércio, assumiu a primeira posição no ranking de principais problemas

O Panorama da Pequena Indústria (PPI) mostra o impacto da pandemia de covid-19 no segmento. Os dados da Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI) dão a dimensão da retração nas atividades, a situação financeira, os principais problemas, o nível de confiança e as perspectivas da pequena indústria.

Em março e abril, com duas quedas representativas, o Índice de Desempenho da Pequena Indústria registrou os dois menores índices da série histórica. Nos dois meses, as reduções foram de 13 pontos em março e 4,1 pontos em abril, quando o indicador ficou em 27,1 pontos numa escala de 0 a 100.

A retração foi sentida em todos os setores, com maior ênfase na transformação, com 17,7 pontos negativos e construção, queda de 15,7 pontos. Em menor escala aparece a extrativa, com uma redução de 6,9 pontos. Nesse cenário, a situação financeira das pequenas indústrias se deteriorou. O Índice de Situação Financeira da pequena empresa caiu 9,1 pontos, para 32 pontos. O valor é 4,4 pontos abaixo do registrado no 1º trimestre de 2019 e 5,2 pontos abaixo da média histórica do índice.

“A falta de demanda, resultado das restrições impostas ao comércio, do isolamento e da piora da confiança dos consumidores, assumiu a primeira posição no ranking de principais problemas enfrentados pelas pequenas empresas da indústria de transformação”, destaca o relatório técnico do PPI. “Como resultado da crise, nota-se, em todos os segmentos, aumento da importância da inadimplência dos clientes entre os principais problemas enfrentados pela pequena indústria. A falta de capital de giro também ganhou importância entre os principais problemas”, completa o documento.

O otimismo registrado no início do ano se deteriorou diante da pandemia de covid-19. Com quedas consecutivas em março (-3,4 pontos), abril (-25,2 pontos) e maio (-0,1 ponto), quando atingiu 34,8 pontos, o Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial (ICEI) atingiu 34,8 pontos no último mês. “A falta de confiança contribui para a paralisação dos investimentos e dificulta a recuperação da atividade econômica”, explica o relatório técnico do PPI.

Quadro semelhante pode ser percebido no Índice de Perspectivas da pequena indústria, que recuou 22,2 pontos em abril na comparação com o mês anterior e ficou em 29,2 pontos, menor patamar da série histórica iniciada em novembro de 2013. Em maio, o índice registrou pequena melhora, de 2,5 pontos, para 31,7 pontos. O índice aponta que as perspectivas da pequena indústria seguem pessimistas, 13,7 pontos abaixo da média histórica.

Panorama da Pequena Indústria

Esta é a terceira edição do Panorama da Pequena Indústria. A pesquisa elenca quatro indicadores: desempenho, situação financeira, perspectivas e índice de confiança. Todos os índices variam de 0 a 100 pontos. Quanto maior ele for, melhor é a performance do setor.

A composição dos índices leva em consideração itens como volume de produção, número de empregados, utilização da capacidade instalada, satisfação com o lucro operacional e situação financeira, facilidade de acesso ao crédito, expectativa de evolução da demanda e intenção de investimento e de contratação.

A pesquisa é divulgada trimestralmente com base na análise dos dados da pequena indústria levantados na Sondagem Industrial, na Sondagem Indústria da Construção e no Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial (ICEI). Todos os meses, as pesquisas ouvem mais de 900 empresários de empresas de pequeno porte.

DOCUMENTO: https://noticias.portaldaindustria.com.br/noticias/economia/desempenho-da-pequena-industria-bate-recorde-negativo/

INFLAÇÃO

FGV. IBRE. 05/06/2020. IGP-DI sobe 1,07% em maio

O Índice Geral de Preços – Disponibilidade Interna (IGP-DI) subiu 1,07% em maio, percentual superior ao apurado no mês anterior, quando havia registrado taxa de 0,05%. Com este resultado, o índice acumula alta de 2,89% no ano e de 6,81% em 12 meses. Em maio de 2019, o índice havia subido 0,40% e acumulava elevação de 6,93% em 12 meses.

“Nesta apuração, o IPA respondeu integralmente pela aceleração do IGP-DI. A elevação do preço de commodities importantes, como soja (7,18% para 8,59%) e minério de ferro (8,02% para 12,32%), somado ao aumento dos preços dos combustíveis, principalmente da gasolina (-30,44% para 11,21%), contribuiu para o avanço da taxa do indicador. Os demais índices componentes do IGP-DI seguiram em direção oposta, especialmente o IPC-DI, que registrou a maior queda dentro do período de estabilização da inflação. A série histórica do IPC-DI, iniciada em fevereiro de 1944, mostra que esta é a maior queda desde junho de 1957, quando o índice caira 1,08%”, afirma André Braz, Coordenador dos Índices de Preços.

O Índice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo (IPA) subiu 1,77% em maio, após variar 0,11% em abril. Na análise por estágios de processamento, o grupo Bens Finais passou de -0,22% em abril para 1,24% em maio. O principal responsável por este avanço foi o subgrupo combustíveis para o consumo, cuja taxa passou de -25,02% para 5,89%. O índice de Bens Finais (ex), que resulta da exclusão de alimentos in natura e combustíveis para o consumo, variou 0,90% em maio, contra 0,92% em abril.

A taxa do grupo Bens Intermediários passou de -2,02% em abril para -0,09% em maio. O principal responsável por este movimento foi o subgrupo combustíveis e lubrificantes para a produção, cuja taxa passou de -22,11% para -6,48%. O índice de Bens Intermediários (ex), calculado após a exclusão de combustíveis e lubrificantes para a produção, variou 0,68% em maio, ante 1,12% no mês anterior.

O estágio das Matérias-Primas Brutas variou 4,15% em maio. Em abril, a taxa havia sido de 2,65%. Contribuíram para o avanço da taxa do grupo os seguintes itens: minério de ferro (8,02% para 12,32%), aves (-5,49% para 3,20%) e soja em grão (7,18% para 8,59%). Em sentido oposto, vale citar milho em grão (-1,79% para -6,40%), café em grão (6,63% para -1,05%) e leite in natura (1,12% para -2,26%).

O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) aprofundou a queda em sua taxa de variação, a qual passou de -0,18% para -0,54%. Sete das oito classes de despesa componentes do índice registraram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação: Alimentação (1,10% para 0,37%), Educação, Leitura e Recreação (-0,90% para -2,12%), Habitação (0,13% para -0,19%), Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,35% para 0,21%), Despesas Diversas (0,35% para 0,10%), Transportes (-2,02% para -2,06%) e Comunicação (0,04% para 0,01%). Nestas classes de despesa, vale mencionar o comportamento dos itens: laticínios (2,98% para -0,21%), passagem aérea (-6,03% para -14,08%), tarifa de eletricidade residencial (0,05% para -0,93%), artigos de higiene e cuidado pessoal (0,50% para 0,06%), alimentos para animais domésticos (2,11% para 0,03%), etanol (-11,11% para -11,83%) e tarifa de telefone residencial (0,18% para 0,00%).

Em contrapartida, apenas o grupo Vestuário (-0,32% para -0,23%) apresentou acréscimo em sua taxa de variação. Esta classe de despesa foi influenciada pelo item roupas, cuja taxa passou de -0,24% para -0,06%.

Núcleo do IPC e Índice de Difusão

O núcleo do IPC registrou taxa de 0,11% em maio, ante 0,24% no mês anterior. Dos 85 itens componentes do IPC, 42 foram excluídos do cálculo do núcleo. Destes, 21 apresentaram taxas abaixo de -0,02% linha de corte inferior, e 21 registraram variações acima de 0,25%, linha de corte superior. Em maio, o índice de difusão, que mede a proporção de itens com taxa de variação positiva, ficou em 47,74%, 10,97 pontos percentuais abaixo do registrado em abril, quando o índice foi de 58,71%.

O Índice Nacional de Custo da Construção (INCC) variou 0,20% em maio, ante 0,22% no mês anterior. Os três grupos componentes do INCC registraram as seguintes variações na passagem de abril para maio: Materiais e Equipamentos (0,61% para 0,55%), Serviços (0,01% para 0,02%) e Mão de Obra que não variou pelo segundo mês consecutivo.

DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/noticias/igp-di-sobe-107-em-maio

FGV. IBRE. 05/06/2020. Inflação para famílias com renda até 2,5 salários mínimos recua mas permanece acima do IPC-BR

O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor - Classe 1 (IPC-C1) de maio caiu 0,30%, ficando 0,34 ponto percentual (p.p.) abaixo de abril quando o índice registrou taxa de 0,04%. Com este resultado, o indicador acumula alta de 0,81% no ano e 2,59% nos últimos 12 meses.

Em maio o IPC-BR variou -0,54%. A taxa do indicador nos últimos 12 meses ficou em 1,83%, nível abaixo do registrado pelo IPC-C1.

Nesta apuração, sete das oito classes de despesa componentes do índice registraram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação: Alimentação (1,29% para 0,67%), Habitação (0,16% para -0,25%), Educação, Leitura e Recreação (-0,76% para -1,97%), Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,29% para 0,19%), Despesas Diversas (0,34% para 0,14%), Transportes (-1,87% para -1,97%) e Comunicação (0,05% para 0,03%). Nestas classes de despesa, vale destacar o comportamento dos itens: laticínios (3,25% para -0,17%), tarifa de eletricidade residencial (0,13% para -0,83%), cursos formais (-0,67% para -2,14%), medicamentos em geral (0,24% para 0,03%), alimentos para animais domésticos (2,07% para 0,57%), óleo diesel (-4,68% para -8,47%) e tarifa de telefone residencial (0,18% para -0,01%).

Em contrapartida, o grupo Vestuário (-0,24% para -0,17%) apresentou avanço em sua taxa de variação. Nesta classe de despesa, vale citar o item acessórios do vestuário (-0,14% para 0,48%).

DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/noticias/inflacao-para-familias-com-renda-ate-25-salarios-minimos-recua-mas-permanece-acima-do-3

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SPECIAL

Dear reader,

Last week we asked you what the IMF should focus on this year, and what keeps you up at night. Many responses—from all over the world—mentioned the economic recovery coming out of the pandemic, so we would like to dig a little deeper. What are your top three concerns about the recovery, and why? Let me know directly. Your thoughts will help inform our broader thinking, research and analysis.

GREENER, SMARTER, FAIRER

"One hundred and seventy countries are going to finish this year with a smaller economy than at the start of the year, and we already project that there will be more debt, bigger deficits, and more unemployment," said Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva this week to 225,000 live participants of the Great Reset Dialogue hosted by the World Economic Forum. "And there is a very high risk of more inequality and more poverty. Unless we act." Read her remarks, which focus on how we can build a greener, smarter, and fairer world coming out of the crisis.

In pursuit of a greener future, we must better understand the connection between climate change and the financial system. Case in point: the IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report examines the impact of climate change physical risk (loss of life and property as well as disruptions to economic activity) on financial stability, and finds that equity investors might not be pricing these risks adequately. In a new blog, the IMF's Felix Suntheim and Jérôme Vandenbussche dig into why.

It's also important to note that in the June 2020 Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, published yesterday, we show that climate change is increasing food insecurity. More broadly, adapting to climate change will cost sub-Saharan Africa US$30 billion to US$50 billion per year for the next ten years. But in a new blog, the IMF's Pritha Mitra and Seung Mo Choi say the cost of not acting is far greater. Prefer a podcast? Listen here (14 min).

We've been thinking about the impact of a warmer world for some time, and since today is World Environment Day, I wanted to point you to a recent roundup of our climate change research, and a recent issue of Finance & Development magazine focused on the economics of climate change.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

For an in-depth look at the state of the global economy today and how the IMF is continuing to respond to the pandemic, I encourage you to watch Managing Director Georgieva's recent video interview with the Washington Post's David Ignatius. The discussion focused on inequality, debt relief and suspension, reopening and much more. Read the full transcript here.

If you're interested in getting even further in the weeds, carve out some time to watch our Chief Economist Gita Gopinath discuss the Great Lockdown in great detail—with a slew of charts and other visuals to bring this story to life. You can also download her slides (start from page 16).

Speaking of the Great Lockdown, what about countries that never closed? The IMF's Sweden team recently explained that the merits of Sweden’s strategy to contain COVID-19—which is based more on recommendations and social responsibility than legal obligations­­—are increasingly attracting attention, both from a health and an economic perspective.

EMERGING MARKETS IN CRISIS

"Economic activity in emerging markets has decelerated at a pace unseen in at least 50 years as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic ravages the global economy," writes the IMF's Martin Mühleisen, Vladimir Klyuev, and Sarah Sanya in a new blog about policy responses in emerging markets to the crisis. If you're interested in learning more about how the pandemic is impacting financial conditions in emerging markets, read MD Georgieva's opening remarks to a recent UN event on Financing for Development in the Era of COVID-19.

In particular, emerging market economies in the Middle East and Central Asia are confronting one of the most severe and widespread crises ever, with a confluence of fast-moving shocks ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to financial market volatility, a plunge in oil prices, and domestic lockdown. The IMF currently expects this diverse group of economies—Armenia, Bahrain, Egypt, Georgia, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates—to contract by 1.7 percent in 2020. Read this new op-ed by the IMF's Jihad Azour to explore these issues further.

If you would like to zoom in on the Middle East, set aside 1-hour to watch Azour's recent in-depth discussion, hosted by the Brookings Institution, on how COVID-19 and the oil shock will reshape the region.

Turning to sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF's Abebe Selassie recently provided a comprehensive tour of IMF emergency assistance to Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. The two-hour discussion and Q&A, hosted by the World Bank, is chalk-full of insights into how the region is faring during the crisis, the role of debt and debt relief, and much more.

FLEXIBLE CREDIT FOR LATIN AMERICA

The IMF recently approved Flexible Credit Line (FCL) requests from Chile (US$23.8 billion) and Peru (US$11 billion). Available to countries with a strong economic track record and policy frameworks, the FCL does not carry standard conditions, provides insurance against external shocks, and will help strengthen financial resilience while responding to the pandemic. Chile and Peru join Colombia and Mexico as recipients of this credit line, which altogether total about US$107 billion.

POLICIES, POLITICS AND PANDEMICS

Our summer 2020 issue of Finance & Development magazine, published this week, focuses on economic policymaking and politics through the lens of COVID-19. Harvard's Jeff Frieden, LSE's Andrés Velasco, and Richard Edelman examine the importance of institutions, identity, and trust, respectively. The IMF's Antoinette Sayeh and Ralph Chami weigh policy solutions as this crisis robs millions of migrants of work opportunities,  slashing remittances, the single most important flow of income for many poor countries. Read the article or listen to the new podcast on this topic. In addition, six prominent thinkers including Daniel Susskind, Ian Bremmer and Sharan Burrow reflect on how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the world. Interested in the full issue? Read it here.

IMF AND COVID-19

We just updated our global policy tracker to help our member countries be more aware of the experiences of others in combating COVID-19, and we are regularly updating our lending tracker, which visualizes the latest emergency financial assistance and debt relief to member countries approved by the IMF’s Executive Board.

There are now 66 countries that have been approved to receive emergency financing, totaling about US$23.5 billion. Recent approvals include Bangladesh, Honduras, Sierra Leone, Barbados, Mongolia, and The Bahamas. If you're wondering how the IMF is helping ensure transparent and accountable use of COVID-19 financial assistance, read this fact sheet, and if you're looking for our latest Q&A about the IMF's response to COVID-19, click here.

P.S. In non-COVID-19 related news, IMF authors Rasmané Ouedraogo and Amadou N. Sy just published a new working paper that found that an increase in digital adoption in Africa is associated with a reduction in the perception of corruption and an increase in trust in tax officials. However, the paper also shows that the dampening effect of digitalization on corruption is hindered in countries where the government has a pattern of intentionally shutting down the Internet.

We are also continually producing a special series of notes—more than 50 to date—by IMF experts to help members address the economic effects of COVID-19 on a range of topics.

Thank you again very much for your interest in our newsletters. We really appreciate your time. If you have any questions, comments or feedback of any kind, please do write me a note.

Stay healthy and see you next week,

Rahim Kanani

International Monetary Fund

rkanani@IMF.org

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/

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LGCJ.: