US ECONOMICS

CONSUMER CREDIT

FED. June 5, 2020. Consumer Credit April 2020

In April, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19-1/2 percent. Revolving credit decreased at a annual rate of 65 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 4 percent.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/g19.pdf

UN

U.S. Department of State. 06/05/2020. Briefing with U.S. Representative to the UN Ambassador Kelly Craft On U.S. Engagement at the United Nations Security Council. Kelly Craft, United States Ambassador to the United Nations. Via Teleconference

MS ORTAGUS: Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. I’m particularly pleased today to welcome my friend and our ambassador at the United Nations, Kelly Craft, to this on-the-record briefing, which I think is her first briefing to the State Department bullpen, so be nice to her, guys.

To highlight our priorities and major lines of effort at the UN Security Council, Kelly will be on today to discuss that and will take your questions. Among other issues that we can discuss today: working to materialize Secretary Guterres’ call for a global ceasefire; ensuring adequate humanitarian support to Syria’s beleaguered men, women, and children; addressing China’s actions to erode Hong Kong’s autonomy and its democratic nature; and supporting a democratic transition in South Sudan.

Ambassador Craft will open with some brief introductory remarks, and then per usual we will devote the rest of our time to taking as many questions as possible. Remember, please, you can go ahead and get in the question queue now if you’d like. You just dial 1 and then 0. So again, this call is on-the-record, but please remember that the contents of this briefing are embargoed until the end of the call. Ambassador Craft, go ahead.

AMBASSADOR CRAFT: Thank you, Morgan. Good morning, everyone. I’m especially delighted today to have this chance to speak with each of you. And since this is my first time, as Morgan mentioned, with the State Department press corps, it’s even more great to be with you, though I wish and I’m looking forward to the moment that we can actually be in person. We’re going to have time to address questions on a range of important issues that have emerged in recent weeks, but I thought that I would begin by filling you in on central issues that affect the UN and make all the difference between effective policy and disfunction.

One of the central themes that has been motivating my work since joining my colleagues at the U.S. mission in September has been the credibility of the UN Security Council and of the United Nations more broadly. When the American people, and any taxpayer around the world for that matter, ask how their tax dollars are being spent, we need to be able to provide a satisfactory answer. And for too long, a gap has been growing between our words and our actions on critical issues in the Security Council.

When I first took this job I told President Trump that I really wanted to show him that the UN, and the Security Council specifically, were still institutions capable of making a difference, and to do that we have to bolster the council’s credibility. I think you’ll hear a lot of words today about credibility, and that’s been one of my main focuses.

Some of you have seen that back in December, when the United States held the presidency of the council, our primary focus was on council credibility and unity, which involved outlining specific goals, making unbiased assessments of previous efforts, and taking steps to ensure that the council remained engaged in working towards resolving international crises just as it was created to do. And I have to say that I saw firsthand, when invited the Security Council on a trip to my home state of Kentucky, the benefits of having them outside the city of New York and to an area that the travel was relatively easy. When we all returned, the relationships that we built really flourished. And yes, we still disagreed and we still disagree, but we – it’s in a more – it’s more of a way that we are human and we know each other. And we also are able to laugh at ourselves and one another, so I think that has been really very helpful for the council for all of us to be together.

In the time of COVID-19, the credibility begins with me by keeping the lights on, and that’s why my incredible team at the U.S. Mission has led a very swift and early effort to transition the new voting procedures and a VTC format for council engagements. It’s essential for the UN to continue performing its core functions, and we’ve been making sure that this is happening. Far too many lives are at stake for us to be slowed down by the pandemic.

I do want to briefly touch on an issue that I’m sure that you all would be interested in, and that is the council’s approach to any COVID-related products, including a potential council resolution which has – would be following the secretary-general’s March 23rd call for the global ceasefire. And once again, this is going to come back to the credibility of the council. During this truly global challenge, it is of course important for the council to demonstrate unity and understanding of the gravity of this situation. As we all know, this situation knows no boundaries or nationality. But we also believe that when the council speaks, its words must not be empty. That means we will not shy away from plainly stating what is really needed to combat this pandemic – full transparency, full accountability – and that means we should not and cannot praise organizations or give voice to countries whose actions have not in fact been praiseworthy.

We’ve been working and we will continue to work closely with our colleagues to bring about credible council engagement on this issue. And there’s been several places where our focus on credibility and meaningful action has resulted in improved outcomes since I’ve arrived in New York – for example, South Sudan. The council has played a critical role in encouraging the formation of a transitional government, both through consistent engagement and by traveling to South Sudan in 2019. The government there plans to hold elections in 2021. Furthermore, the arms embargo imposed in 2018 have made South Sudan a genuinely safer place. And we were glad to once again bolster the council’s credibility by renewing this embargo at the end of May.

There are several other mandate renewals we secured at the end of the month, including missions in Iraq and Somalia that demonstrated the council is capable of addressing important issues. But the truth is there are several areas where the council’s failure to act have deeply harmed the credibility of this council. Nowhere is this clearer than on the question of Syria and cross-border aid. And I know that you’ve spoken to Jim Jeffrey, and it’s just very important to emphasize the importance of the cross-border aid in Syria, because it’s the people of Syria that we are very concerned about.

There are millions of innocent Syrian women, children, and men that are depending on lifesaving assistance from outside of the country. Until January of this year, the assistance was coming into the country through four different border crossings. Due to Russia and China’s obstruction, two of those were unfortunately closed, not for any other reason other than to voice the murderous Assad regime. And once again, what we’re concerned about is not the Assad regime but the people of Syria.

The UN reporting from the secretary-general has clearly indicated that the best possible way to get desperately needed food and medicine to northeast Syria is by opening a third border crossing. However, once again, our Russian and Chinese colleagues have objected to even this strictly humanitarian endeavor.

China repeatedly states it is concerned about the Syrian people, but its continued obstruction says something very different. If China was really concerned, it would have listened to the advice of the WHO, a body whose recommendations they claim to value practically in every other arena. Some policy disagreements are not black and white, but this one is. Failure to provide humanitarian relief to Syria will send innocent people to their deaths and condemn millions to a grim future. If this council does not renew cross-border aid in July, our critics will rightly be able to ask if we’re capable of fulfilling even the most basic elements of our mandate.

Most recently, we have seen the People’s Republic of China block a Security Council meeting regarding what is taking place in Hong Kong. As I have said to my fellow council members in closed session last week, China’s actions are in direct conflict with its international obligations and implicate international peace and security. When the world sees us failing to address a matter as urgent and important as this, it only serves to further undermine the credibility of the Security Council.

So as you can tell, there’s a number of issues on which we’ve seen success, but a clear-eyed and honest assessment of the council activities suggests that we’ve got a long way to go. We need to earn the full confidence of the American people and the international community. And one of those things that Secretary Pompeo has already talked about is an extension of the arms embargo, Iran arms embargo, before the current one expires October 18th.

This is the work that I’m committed to as long as I have the honor of serving as President Trump’s UN ambassador. And so with that, Morgan, I’ll stop and I’ll hand it over to you to begin our Q&A.

MS ORTAGUS: Great. Thanks so much, Kelly. We’re first going to turn it over to Carol Morello, Washington Post.

OPERATOR: And Carol, your line is open. Please, go ahead.

QUESTION: Okay, thank you. Can you hear me? Thank you for being with us, Ambassador. A number of world leaders have expressed horror, and “consternation,” in the worlds of Justin Trudeau, about what’s going on in the United States, specifically about the means used to disperse peaceful protestors before the President walked through Lafayette Square for a photo op. I was wondering what kind of criticism that you were hearing and if this has made it more difficult for you to make the U.S. voice heard and listened to when you stand up for basic democratic values. Thank you.

AMBASSADOR CRAFT: Thank you, Carol. Of course, we denounce this awful killing of George Floyd. I mean, it is intolerable. It is brutality. There is no other way to define it. However, there is no moral equivalent between our free society, which works through tough problems like racism, and other societies which do not allow anything to be discussed because it has – they are of authoritative regimes.

What I really want to stress is that I would challenge anyone to compare their record with our record as far as how they treat situations. If you want to ask China why are we not talking about the Uighurs, why are we not talking about their treatment of Africans, the Tibetans – we need to have a dialogue on the difference. And I think that what’s been really important that I have seen are the people in the council that have called and reached out in support of the fact that the U.S. is allowing the freedom of speech. We want that – those to be peaceful demonstrations, as the attorney general has stated, but I have seen nothing but support from my fellow council members. Yes, we have Russia and China that are trying to change the narrative, but that’s normal.

So I look at the positive that we are going to uphold our democracy. We are going to allow people across the country to have peaceful demonstrations and the opportunity to speak freely. To me, there is such a distinct difference between the authoritative regimes and a freedom-loving nation as the one that we are all so honored to be able to live in. This is something that I’ve stressed through our open discussion at the UN, that we have democratic elections and we have a judicial system, and they do not. So thank you for that question.

MS ORTAGUS: Great, thanks. Kylie Atwood, CNN.

OPERATOR: Kylie, your line is open. Please, go ahead.

QUESTION: Thanks for doing this, Ambassador. I just have – I have two questions for you. The first is in regard to your opening remarks in which you criticize China for not listening to the WHO with regard to Syria. Given that the Trump administration has cut funding to the WHO, is your messaging at odds with the Trump administration’s actions here?

And then my second question is just a follow-up with regard to everything that we’ve seen here in the U.S. right now. Have you provided any guidance to State Department employees who are based in New York City about partaking in peaceful protest? And are they allowed to partake in those protests if they’re fundamentally focused on combating racism in the U.S.? Thank you.

AMBASSADOR CRAFT: Thank you, Kylie. When it comes to the WHO, you have seen what the President has said. I mean, we want an institution that is going to be accountable. We want an institution that is going to be making a difference. I mean, we had reforms the last time, during the SARS outbreak, to prevent this very thing that’s happening at the moment. We have to take action when an organization does not follow by the rules. We have a great track record of other organizations such as NATO, the World Food Program, other organizations following through, but when there – it comes to the WHO, a multilateral institution, they have to work. China has been using the WHO; they have not been transparent. They have not allowed us to hold them accountable. And for China to not agree on Syria but yet uphold the WHO, I find – actually, I find it disgusting, to be quite honest with you.

To talk about your guidance, I just sent out a letter to my staff yesterday at the USUN. I’m on a weekly call with different groups. And you know, I sensed yesterday a lot of uncertainty and I just wanted them to know, through my letter than I e-mailed yesterday, that we – we’re all in this together. It is a very difficult time in New York. I am with them. Without them, I can’t be productive, so I need each and every one of them. I too wish I could be there in person just like I wish I could be there today with all of you to speak face to face. I wish I could be there in person, but we are all sheltering in place. The UN is not open, neither is the USUN. So I have reached out. It’s funny you said that. I just wrote the letter 24 hours ago to send out to the USUN, because I have to tell you, everybody’s feeling very uncertain at the moment, and that’s why it’s so important that we all – you – I mean, I have to depend on the press to be able to highlight the issues that are going on in the world, because we’re not in the Security Council in person. So we have to all be able to speak freely, and I just wanted them to know that I hear them, I’m there with them, we’re in this together, and we will win this. Thanks, Kylie.

MS ORTAGUS: Thank you. And now we have Edith Lederer from the Associated Press.

OPERATOR: Please, go ahead.

QUESTION: Thank you, Madam Ambassador, and apologies but I’m filling in for our State Department correspondent who is not there today. I have a question about Iran and how the U.S. is going to pursue this arms embargo, given that the Russian ambassador has said quite unequivocally that they oppose any change to the arms embargo and do not believe that the United States has any standing to invoke the snapback provision in the JCPOA because of the Trump administration’s pull-out in 2018. So how are you going to try and move ahead on this? Thank you.

AMBASSADOR CRAFT: Thank you, Edith. It’s great to hear your voice. Can they hear me – can – I don’t – yeah, okay. First of all, the U.S. is going to exercise all of our diplomatic options to ensure that the UN arms embargo is extended. My job is to make sure that this arms embargo extension happens. I mean, I’m working very closely with the Secretary, with Brian Hook – this 2231 that’s going to be coming up for renewal. What I say to people is on October 18th – and this is what the Secretary has reiterated – do we want Russia selling weapons to Iran? Do we want China selling – do we want anyone providing and/or selling weapons to Iran once this arms embargo – if we do not extend this embargo?

I’m stressing that Russia and China need to join a global consensus on Iran’s conduct. This is about the people – not only the people of Iran, but the people in the Middle East. We have to think about the unintended consequences and ramifications. This is an absolute imperative that we exercise all of our options to make certain that this UN arms embargo is extended.

MS ORTAGUS: Great, thanks. Okay. I think we have —

AMBASSADOR CRAFT: Do you want me to — I think also, just because I owe to this Edith about the snapbacks, I think that I really encourage everybody to be able to read this 2231 which makes clear that the U.S. retains the right to initiate a snapback renewal for the arms embargo. Thanks, Edith.

MS ORTAGUS: Thank you so much. Next up we have Said Arikat.

OPERATOR: Please, go ahead.

QUESTION: (Inaudible) Morgan. Thank you, Madam Ambassador. Today marks the 53rd anniversary since Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem have had to endure a very brutal Israeli military occupation. Do you believe that the time has come to end this occupation? Thank you.

AMBASSADOR CRAFT: Thank you, Said. We have – in January, the President put forth a Vision for Peace, and I just want to make sure that, as I say to everybody in the council, this is not set in stone. This is not something that we are pushing. This is an opportunity for Israel and the Palestinians to sit at the table together.

I am personally deeply committed to making certain that we facilitate this peace plan. Through Jared Kushner and through President Trump and Secretary Pompeo we’ve been working very closely to make certain that both Israel and the Palestinians – as you remember, the President said we are here for you, we want to bring you to the table – that both sides understand that this Vision for Peace is – it’s very detailed, it’s very realistic, it’s very implementable, and it meets the core requirements for both Israel and the Palestinian people. That’s my concern, are the people.

You see both sides are hurting. Both want to go about their lives. We want the economic and their economy to grow. We want them to have their own way of life. And it’s just imperative that as the USUN ambassador, that I really work very close with both of the PRs to ensure that we have people sit together at the table. Until we have dialogue, there’s going to be nothing. So there is a lot of room within this Vision for Peace, but we have to have them at the table first before we know what each side has in mind. So I’m really stressing and really pushing, whether it be through a Quartet, whether it be through just my engagement at the Security Council or with the PR in Palestine – Palestinian PR, Israeli PR, we have – you have to get to the table. Otherwise, we don’t know how each side is truly feeling about the Vision for Peace.

MS ORTAGUS: Thank you. Okay. Now we have Michelle Nichols from Reuters.

QUESTION: Hi, Ambassador. Thanks for doing this. Hope you’re doing well. Just a follow-up to Edith’s question, just to be a little more sort of direct: When are you planning to circulate the draft resolution to extend the arms embargo on Iran?

And on the World Health Organization, when does that decision take effect to withdraw? There was a resolution, I think in like 1948 – not a resolution, a – or Congress – something to do with Congress saying that they would give one year notice and pay up what they owe. So I just wanted to find out when that’s happening. Thanks.

AMBASSADOR CRAFT: You’re welcome. It’s good to hear from you. As far as going to your first question about the arms embargo, we have shared a draft resolution – the arms embargo resolution with the UK, France, Germany, I believe Estonia, and Russia. So pretty soon we’ll be sharing the full 15, but we are trying to really work very carefully, very thoroughly to prepare for this October 18th, and we’re speaking to different council members. Before I share any of the other members a draft, I want to make certain that everyone understands where – that we are committed to making certain that the UN Security Council does not allow this to expire in October. So they need to understand my firm, solid commitment to the people in Iran, to the people in the region, and I think they’ll understand better then once they’re able to see the draft embargo.

As far as the WHO, we are working with the White House and the Secretary on the timing. We have – I’m sure you know this, Michelle, being at the UN – the U.S. has given more than any country. We’re at $1 billion now for combating COVID-19. And as you know, we’re always the first to step up and we have done so, and the American people have been extremely generous on their own at about 11 billion thus far. So thank you for bringing that up. That’s a good question.

MS ORTAGUS: Great. We have time for one more question, and we’ll go to Joel Gehrke.

QUESTION: Hi, thank you. I actually wanted to circle back kind of to the – Carol’s question at the top. I was wondering, related to the protests this week, the attorney general mentioned that there are foreign actors involved in disinformation efforts targeting the U.S. I wonder, do you think that China or Russia specifically are doing anything to support or stoke violence on the one hand, and is that affecting any of your engagement with them now? And then on the other hand, are you worried that authoritarians watching this kind of controversy and this kind of debate about how to contain the violence will feel emboldened to quote American rhetoric or Western condemnation of the U.S. of different policies when they want to take actions that are undeniable abuses of power and protesters?

AMBASSADOR CRAFT: Thank you. I really appreciate you bringing that up, Joel. First of all, with George Floyd, I mean, I can’t stress enough how this killing was – it’s awful. I mean, it’s intolerable. I could go on and on. However, we have to remember that there is no moral equivalence between our free society and other societies. I mean, if you think about how we work through racism, we work through all problems, and we always prevail. Goodness prevails in the United States because we are a country of democracy. With authoritative regimes like China, other – it doesn’t happen that way. They are only pushing their agenda toward us in order to hide what they’re doing. I mean, we should ask them, we should challenge them. We should challenge them to compare their record with ours. What are they doing about the Uighurs? How are they handling this brutal treatment to the Africans, to the Tibetans? I mean, let’s talk about – let’s get the difference out in the open.

Now, when it comes to the council and my relationship with the council members, I have to say that I try to look for the positive and in ways that I can work with China, with Russia. There have been many ways with Russia working on counterterrorism. These relationships that you build – yes, we’re going to disagree and there’s going to be no one that’s going to stand up for this country with China and Russia more than the United States and more than myself at the USUN. But you have to do it in a way that you’re not cutting off the dialogue, because I have to have that dialogue in order to show the other 12 members of the Security Council that we can work together. But while we do disagree and while I make – my eyes are wide open and I voice my opinions, I might voice it with a little bit more kindness. It doesn’t mean it’s weakness, but I also have to let the other countries know that we are willing to work on positive reform and on bringing China and Russia to the table with us. And that’s my goal.

And that goes back to that credibility issue that I was talking about, and I will say that one thing I have learned about this council and for that matter the other – the rest of the UN member-states is that we have all been affected by this COVID-19 pandemic. It doesn’t matter where, what corner of the world; we’ve all been affected by this economically, socially, and I have seen a real gathering even in the midst of disagreements on this resolution that we’re trying to put forth for the global ceasefire, I have seen a togetherness that – you know there’s a silver lining in everything, and with COVID-19, even with China – I mean, they’re concerned about their people. They know I’m concerned about their people.

They also know that my heart is with areas that already have conflict, and that is whether it’s South Sudan, whether it’s Syria. We have a horrific situation in Yemen, in Lebanon, Libya – anywhere – in Bangladesh, anywhere where there are groups of refugees, you wouldn’t believe the kind of softness that I’m seeing within the council because of the COVID-19. It affects every one of us. It doesn’t matter who you are. It doesn’t matter what part of society that you are within that country.

So I’m really trying to focus on the goodness, what I’m seeing in some of the PRs, and I’m hoping that we’ll have a success, that we’ll be able to have a council resolution on the global ceasefire, that we’ll be able then to move on to July for the cross-border issues in Syria. You’ve got to start somewhere, and you’ve got to have a positive reinforcement, and we’ve got to have a camaraderie, and then I can work toward pointing out the negativity. They all know how I feel, but I have to show them that I’m willing to work to get to what the U.S. stands for, and that is for the people, for democracy all over the world.

MS ORTAGUS: Well, that’s a wonderful way to end, Kelly. Thank you so much for joining in. We’d love for you to come back more regularly and brief our State Department bullpen.

AMBASSADOR CRAFT: Thank you.

CHINA

U.S. Department of State. 06/06/2020. On the Chinese Communist Party’s Obscene Propaganda. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State

The Chinese Communist Party’s callous exploitation of the tragic death of George Floyd to justify its authoritarian denial of basic human dignity exposes its true colors yet again. As with dictatorships throughout history, no lie is too obscene, so long as it serves the Party’s lust for power. This laughable propaganda should not fool anyone.

The contrast between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could not be more stark.

In China, when a church burns, the attack was almost certainly directed by the CCP. In America, when a church burns, the arsonists are punished by the government, and it is the government that brings fire trucks, water, aid, and comfort to the faithful.

In China, peaceful protesters from Hong Kong to Tiananmen Square are clubbed by armed militiamen for simply speaking out. Reporters writing of these indignities are sentenced to long terms in prison. In the United States, law enforcement – both state and federal – brings rogue officers to justice, welcomes peaceful protests while forcefully shutting down looting and violence, and exercises power pursuant to the Constitution to protect property and liberty for all. Our free press covers events wall to wall, for all the world to see.

In China, when doctors and journalists warn of the dangers of a new disease, the CCP silences and disappears them, and lies about death totals and the extent of the outbreak. In the United States, we value life and build transparent systems to treat, cure, and underwrite – more than any other nation – pandemic solutions for the globe.

In China, when citizens hold opinions that diverge from CCP dogma, the Party imprisons them in re-education camps. And, when people – such as those in Hong Kong and Taiwan – with common roots in an awe-inspiring civilization that has endured for thousands of years embrace freedom, that freedom is crushed, and the people subordinated to Party dictates and demands. In the United States, in contrast, even amidst reckless rioting, we demonstrate our robust commitment to the rule of law, transparency, and unalienable human rights.

Beijing in recent days has showcased its continuing contempt for the truth and scorn for law. The CCP’s propaganda efforts – seeking to conflate the United States’ actions in the wake of the death of George Floyd with the CCP’s continued denial of basic human rights and freedom – should be seen for the fraud that they are.

During the best of times, the PRC ruthlessly imposes communism. Amid the most difficult challenges, the United States secures freedom.

U.S. Department of State. 06/06/2020. Secretary Michael R. Pompeo With Samantha Renck of The Daily Caller. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State. Via Teleconference

QUESTION:  We are celebrating the 76th anniversary of D-Day.  What is the continued significance of this day for the United States and the world?  Do you think it has any lessons for today’s global environment?

SECRETARY POMPEO:  Well, the shape of the world today, the freedom we have, the strong sense that the ideas that America’s founders put in the heads of all of us as Americans, they were vindicated through the efforts of American forces.  When tyranny came, when the bad actors had taken over Europe and were on the verge of taking over the world in this great global conflagration, those people who believed in democracy, those people who believed that our rights were God-given and came from him, prevailed.

And so that moment – the moment when America rose 150,000, if I remember right, men, 12,000 aircraft, thousands of sea vessels crossing the Channel into Normandy to defend freedom all across the globe – it impacts us today, it shapes us today.  I am always proud that I’m a Kansan, and it was a great Kansan who led that great expedition and successfully vindicated the central tenets of the world that exists today and the ideas that human beings have dignity because of their humanness, and that individual freedom and human rights are the proper way for governments to behave.

QUESTION:  Now, the reason D-Day happened is because Germany seized France.  The Chinese have just seized Hong Kong.  Do you see any parallels between what Germany did to France to what China did and is continuing to do to Hong Kong?

SECRETARY POMPEO:  The United States is ever mindful that when we engage in conflict, we do so as a final straw, when there is no other option to protect freedom.  We know, too, that authoritarian regimes have a tendency towards seeking increased land and power and to expand the scope of their tyranny.  And it’s certainly the case that the promises that the Chinese Communist Party had made in their treaty with the United Kingdom – that they broke when they made the decision to deny Hong Kong people the freedoms that they had been promised – were similar to some of the promises that were broken back in the days when Germany advanced against the rest of Europe.

But we have an obligation to work, to work diplomatically with the Chinese Communist Party, to work to make sure that we protect Americans in every way that we can.  D-Day reminds us of the costs when we engage in conflict in the way that we did back those many years ago, and reminds me as the Secretary of State today of my absolute obligation to exhaust all possibilities before we ever find ourselves in a place where we have to put young men and women at risk in order to achieve the efforts to secure America’s freedom.

QUESTION:  On D-Day the United States invaded Normandy to restore Western civilization.  Do you see the United States doing something similar in Hong Kong to restore democracy?

SECRETARY POMPEO:  Now remember, remember in Hong Kong our task – what the President said on Friday we were going to do – is we were going to go make clear our expectation that China change its course, that it return to the status quo ex ante where the freedom that they had promised to the people of Hong Kong would be provided to them.  And in the event that they do not – if they pass the national security law that we think they may pass, or if they delay or cancel the elections that are scheduled for September of this year – they will have made a fundamental breach not to just the United States but on their promises to the United Kingdom and the world.  And the tools that the President laid out on Friday that we will use to respond will be engaged, and they’ll be executed.  That will be the beginning of how we begin to think about what we will do to do our best to create maximal freedom for the people of Hong Kong and ensure that the people of America continue to remain free and secure.

QUESTION:  Due to the nature of modern warfare, we’ll likely never see another massive frontal assault like we did on D-Day.  In your opinion, what is or will be our modern-day D-Day?  Where are the front lines, and who or what will we be fighting?

SECRETARY POMPEO:  There’s no doubt that technology has fundamentally reshaped the way warfare has been engaged.  Even over the past 15 years you’ve seen it.  You’ve seen more cyber activity, cyber activity by state actors and non-state actors as well.  You can see the ever-increasing militarization of space with satellites that can now provide detailed imagery for militaries around the world.  So it’s true; as time changes, militaries change.

But make no mistake about it.  Some of the tools – I was a soldier once on an M1 tanker.  Those tools still matter.  You see nations continue to build out their conventional weapons systems as well for conflicts that take that shape.  It is absolutely true that there is ever-greater risk, and as the capacity for nuclear weapons and capabilities expand, it’s why we’re trying to get the Chinese into arms control discussions; as you see those capabilities expand, there is increased threats to the world, and we need to be mindful that those threats can be potentially devastating not only for a city, a town, a state, or a country, but for the entire world.

And so our diplomatic efforts and America’s leadership in the world is aimed at making sure that we reduce the risk that anybody will ever use weapons of those nature – of that nature, and in so making sure that we reduce risk here to the United States of America and the American people.  It’s what President Trump’s “America First” foreign policy is centrally aimed at.

QUESTION:  Mr. Secretary, one final question.  How has the Trump administration continued to advance the significance of the victories that we saw on D-Day?

SECRETARY POMPEO:  In every element of what President Trump and our team have tried to do on national security, it’s been deeply consistent with what the team that invaded on D-Day was aimed to achieve.  So whether it’s our efforts at protecting religious freedom, something that’s been at the center of what this administration has sought to achieve, or our efforts to enforce the central idea of national sovereignty where each country gets the right to make decisions for itself in a way that reflects its own history, but do so in a way that is not cost-imposing on other countries.

And then the legacy from that war, the multilateral institutions that grew out of that, whether it was institutions like NATO, we have worked to make sure that those institutions still continue to function the way they did in the immediate aftermath of that war.  We know that after 70-plus years now the risk that those institutions no longer are fit for purpose is real, and so we have striven to make sure that every nation that was part of that coalition that protected democracy and freedom around the world understands it has a continuing obligation to assist in the global effort to maintain that freedom and democracy in as many nations as possible.

QUESTION:  Mr. Secretary, thank you again for taking the time to interview with me today.  I hope we can speak again in the future.

SECRETARY POMPEO:  I’d welcome that, Samantha.  Thanks for your time today as well.  So long, ma’am.

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FMI. 05/06/2020. Coraje en la línea de fuego: Las respuestas de política económica de las economías de mercados emergentes y en desarrollo frente a la pandemia de COVID-19
Por Martin Mühleisen, Vladimir Klyuev, Sarah Sanya

La crisis del coronavirus es una crisis sin igual que en las economías de mercados emergentes y en desarrollo (EMED) ha desencadenado una respuesta de política económica sin igual, tanto en su alcance como en su magnitud.

Pese a su diversidad y, en algunos casos, a sus recursos limitados, este amplio grupo de países —formado por mercados emergentes y países de bajo ingreso— ha reforzado la provisión de servicios sanitarios y proporcionado un apoyo sin precedentes a hogares, empresas y mercados financieros. Aunque debido al limitado margen de maniobra de la política económica la magnitud de la respuesta se ha mantenido en un nivel inferior al de las economías avanzadas, algunos han conseguido incluso ayudar a otros países.

Un mundo totalmente nuevo

La actividad económica en las EMED se ha desacelerado a un ritmo no visto en los últimos 50 años, a medida que el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 devasta la economía mundial. Varios países están experimentando un brusco descenso de los flujos comerciales y de capitales, así como el impacto de un descenso sin precedentes de los precios del petróleo y otras materias primas. Se ha producido una oleada de rebajas en las calificaciones de la deuda soberana.

El observatorio de políticas del FMI resume las principales respuestas de política económica frente a la pandemia de COVID-19 y, en estas respuestas, se observan algunos denominadores comunes.

Política fiscal para salvar vidas y proteger los medios de vida

La política fiscal se ha situado al frente de la respuesta de las EMED. En las EMED, la crisis sanitaria hace necesario un enorme gasto en atención de la salud, aunque este incremento se ve eclipsado frente al volumen de recursos necesarios para apoyar a toda la economía. Los países han ofrecido préstamos, garantías y exoneraciones fiscales a sociedades y pymes y han ampliado el apoyo a los hogares vulnerables mediante el aumento de las prestaciones por desempleo y subsidios sobre las tarifas de los servicios públicos.

El financiamiento de estas nuevas medidas proviene de distintas fuentes, entre otras, el endeudamiento, la utilización de reservas, la reorganización de prioridades dentro de los presupuestos existentes y el apoyo multilateral.

Cuando comenzó la crisis, algunas economías estaban ya en una situación vulnerable, con un crecimiento débil, altos niveles de deuda y un espacio fiscal limitado para apoyar al sector sanitario y a la economía decaída. Alrededor de la mitad de los países de bajo ingreso se encontraban en una situación crítica causada por el sobreendeudamiento, o en alto riesgo de estarlo, incluso antes de la crisis, según el análisis de sostenibilidad de la deuda realizado por el FMI. Como consecuencia en parte de estas limitaciones, en el plano fiscal la respuesta discrecional total al shock ha sido menor (aunque aun así considerable) tanto en las economías de mercados emergentes como en las de bajo ingreso, del 2,8 y 1,4% del PIB, respectivamente, en gastos adicionales y reducciones de impuestos, en comparación con el 8,6% del PIB en las economías avanzadas.

Respaldo monetario y al sector financiero: Un ancla para la estabilidad

Los bancos centrales de las EMED han amortiguado el impacto del shock en las condiciones crediticias mediante recortes de las tasas de interés de política monetaria e inyecciones de liquidez. A diferencia de episodios anteriores de presiones debidas a la salida de capitales —como la primera etapa de la Crisis Financiera Mundial—, la mayoría de las economías de mercados emergentes han rebajado sus tasas de política monetaria (la mayoría en 50 o más puntos básicos) en lugar de elevarlas. Esto podría atribuirse a que las presiones inflacionarias son menores y los marcos de política monetaria por lo general gozan de mayor credibilidad.

Al igual que muchas economías avanzadas, algunos mercados emergentes cuentan con poco margen para nuevos recortes de las tasas de interés y han implementado respuestas de «política monetaria no convencional», como son las compras de bonos corporativos y públicos.

Las restricciones regulatorias, incluidas las restricciones en materia de liquidez y clasificación de préstamos, se han flexibilizado para que los bancos puedan brindar un mayor apoyo durante la pandemia.

Además, algunos países, entre ellos China, Colombia y Turquía, han relajado ciertas medidas macroprudenciales, como las limitaciones a la concesión de préstamos y el endeudamiento introducidas para contener el crecimiento excesivo de los préstamos así como la acumulación de riesgos sistémicos en el sector financiero que puede suceder en épocas de bonanza. En estos momentos, esa relajación de las medidas puede sostener la oferta de crédito a las personas y los sectores económicos más afectados.

Mantenimiento de la flexibilidad

Las monedas de las EMED con tipos de cambio flexibles se han depreciado en respuesta a las presiones causadas por la salida de capitales y al aumento de la aversión al riesgo, por encima del 25% en algunos casos.

Muchas economías han recurrido a sus reservas para compensar parte de la presión, para lo cual han intervenido en los mercados de divisas y han utilizado sus reservas internacionales. Unos pocos países han relajado los controles a la entrada de capitales, mientras que la aplicación de medidas para frenar la salida de capitales ha sido muy limitada.

Digitalización: Una tabla de salvación para proteger a los sectores vulnerables

Países como Bolivia e Indonesia están utilizando la tecnología digital para contrarrestar las repentinas dificultades económicas por las que atraviesan los hogares y las pequeñas y medianas empresas, así como para limitar la propagación de la enfermedad creando incentivos para evitar los pagos en efectivo. Otros, como Colombia y Kenya, están garantizando el acceso a bajo costo a servicios digitales (relajando las restricciones al acceso a internet) y financieros (comisiones de pagos electrónicos y dinero móvil). Zambia ofrece subsidios a pequeños agricultores mediante una plataforma digital.

«Las soluciones digitales han contribuido a focalizar el alivio en los sectores vulnerables y a acrecentar la eficacia de las políticas macro tradicionales».

Gestión de las perturbaciones en los suministros

Como respuesta a las trabas en las cadenas mundiales de suministro debido a la pandemia y el confinamiento prolongado, muchos países han adoptado medidas para garantizar la seguridad alimentaria y el acceso continuado a suministros médicos, en su mayoría de forma temporal. Por ejemplo, varios países han introducido controles de precios y emitido regulaciones contra el aumento de los precios de productos alimenticios básicos y suministros médicos. Algunos han flexibilizado los controles sobre las importaciones. Lamentablemente, en varios casos se introdujeron restricciones a la exportación de alimentos y productos farmacéuticos.

Solidaridad internacional: Ayudar a los países a ir más allá

En respuesta al shock causado por la COVID-19 se ha activado y reforzado la red mundial de seguridad financiera. La Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos ha establecido nuevas líneas de crédito recíproco con bancos centrales de varias economías avanzadas y emergentes.

La iniciativa de moratoria de la deuda liderada por el G-20 y la asistencia financiera del FMI y otras instituciones está ayudando a las EMED a hacer frente a los problemas. El FMI ha actuado con rapidez para proporcionar asistencia de emergencia a más de 60 países. Asimismo, frente al aumento de la demanda de liquidez, el FMI ha establecido recientemente una nueva Línea de Liquidez a Corto Plazo (LLCP) como parte de su respuesta ante la COVID-19 para complementar sus instrumentos de crédito. Además, los bancos centrales de las principales economías avanzadas han proporcionado liquidez en forma masiva, que si bien se ha orientado en primer lugar a apoyar las condiciones financieras internas también ha aliviado las presiones sobre las economías de mercados emergentes y en desarrollo.

Al mismo tiempo, las EMED también están ampliando la asistencia mutua y a otros países que lo necesitan. En concreto, los bancos regionales de desarrollo están proporcionando apoyo a empresas del sector privado, financiamiento comercial y un acceso continuado a suministros médicos. Entre los ejemplos de asistencia bilateral están Albania, que ha enviado un equipo de médicos a Italia, y Vietnam, que ha donado suministros médicos a países vecinos y a economías avanzadas.

Las EMED se han visto duramente afectadas por el shock de la COVID-19 y la reacción que ha desencadenado en los mercados. El análisis del observatorio de políticas del FMI muestra una respuesta de política económica extraordinaria, reforzada por la innovación y la cooperación internacional. En esta situación sin precedentes y en rápida evolución, los países pueden aprender de sus homólogos, y el FMI tiene la determinación de recopilar e intercambiar información sobre las prácticas óptimas e incorporar estos datos en sus propios análisis para continuar brindando asistencia a los países miembros.

DOCUMENTO: https://blog-dialogoafondo.imf.org/?p=13528&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

FMI. 05/06/2020. Salvaguardar la seguridad alimentaria de África en épocas de la COVID-19
Por Pritha Mitra y Seung Mo Choi

La seguridad alimentaria peligra en África subsahariana. Para muchos africanos, la sucesión de catástrofes naturales y epidemias dificulta el acceso a suficientes alimentos seguros y nutritivos para atender sus necesidades dietéticas. Los ciclones Idai y Kenneth, las plagas de langostas en África oriental y las sequías en África meridional y oriental son algunos ejemplos. La pandemia de COVID-19 no es más que la última catástrofe que ha engrosado las filas de las 240 millones de personas que pasan hambre en la región. En algunos países, más de 70% de la población tiene problemas para alimentarse.

África subsahariana es la región con la mayor inseguridad alimentaria del mundo, y en la edición de junio de 2020 de Perspectivas económicas regionales de África subsahariana mostramos que el cambio climático la está agudizando.

La región subsahariana es particularmente vulnerable a las fuerzas del cambio climático. Casi la mitad de la población vive por debajo de la línea de pobreza y depende de la agricultura pluvial, el arreo de ganado y la pesca para sobrevivir. Con cada shock climático —sequía, inundación, ciclón—, los agricultores sufren directamente, en tanto que la escasez encarece los alimentos para todos.

Vidas perdidas, mayor vulnerabilidad

Los africanos pueden caer fácilmente en la inseguridad alimentaria porque su capacidad de adaptación está limitada por numerosos factores, como el bajo nivel de ahorro y de acceso a las finanzas y los seguros. En consecuencia, se pierden vidas, la malnutrición aumenta, la salud desmejora y la matriculación escolar cae. En última instancia, todo eso daña la capacidad productiva de la economía.

Durante estos tiempos de COVID-19, todas estas dificultades están a la vista.

Aunque son críticas para salvar vidas, las medidas de contención y control de la pandemia de COVID-19 podrían exacerbar la inseguridad alimentaria. El cierre de fronteras, los confinamientos y los toques de queda decretados para frenar la propagación de la enfermedad están trastocando cadenas de suministro que, aun en circunstancias normales, tienen dificultades para abastecer mercados y suministrar a los agricultores semillas y otros insumos.

La concepción de medidas para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria en la época de la COVID-19

En esta coyuntura crítica, África subsahariana tiene que priorizar políticas encaminadas a mitigar los riesgos en torno a la seguridad alimentaria como parte de programas de estímulo fiscal que contrarresten la pandemia. Nuestro análisis sugiere que esas políticas deberían centrarse en la expansión de la producción agrícola y el fortalecimiento de la capacidad de los hogares para resistir shocks. Eso tendría la ventaja agregada de reducir las desigualdades y promover al mismo tiempo el crecimiento y el empleo.

Estímulo de la producción agrícola

Incluso antes de la pandemia, muchos países de la región estaban activamente dedicados a proteger la oferta alimentaria incrementando la productividad de los cultivos y reduciendo su sensibilidad a las inclemencias meteorológicas. Por ejemplo, Mozambique es sede de un programa piloto internacional para la producción de nuevas semillas de frijol que toleran el calor; entre tanto, en Etiopía, la producción de algunos agricultores se acrecentó hasta 40% gracias al desarrollo de variedades de trigo resistentes a la roya (causada por temperaturas más altas y precipitaciones volátiles).

Para mantener ese ímpetu es necesario avanzar en la mejora del riego, las semillas y la protección frente a la erosión, todo lo cual estimularía sustancialmente la producción. En el ínterin, concientizar a los agricultores también aceleraría la implementación de estas medidas.

Resistencia a los shocks: Un impacto desproporcionado

La adaptación al cambio climático es crítica para salvaguardar el avance en términos del desarrollo económico que África subsahariana ha realizado con tanto esfuerzo durante las últimas décadas. Sin embargo, será especialmente difícil dados la limitada capacidad y los limitados recursos financieros de los países.

Entonces, la prioridad debería ser avanzar en determinados ámbitos críticos que podrían tener un impacto desproporcionado a la hora de reducir las posibilidades de que una familia sufra inseguridad alimentaria debido a shocks producidos por el cambio climático o las pandemias.

Por ejemplo, el progreso en el terreno de las finanzas, las telecomunicaciones, la vivienda y la atención de la salud podría reducir el riesgo de escasez alimentaria de una familia en 30%:

• Un nivel más alto de ingresos (de distintas fuentes) y el acceso a las finanzas ayudarían a los hogares a comprar alimentos aun cuando los precios suben, permitiéndoles invertir en resiliencia antes de un shock y manejarse mejor posteriormente.
• El acceso a las redes de telefonía móvil les permite a las personas beneficiarse del sistema de alerta anticipada y les brinda a los agricultores información sobre los precios de los alimentos y las condiciones meteorológicas; un simple mensaje de voz o de texto podría ayudarlos a decidir cuándo conviene plantar o regar.
• La vivienda y las edificaciones agrícolas mejor construidas protegerían a las personas y a los alimentos almacenados de los shocks climáticos. Sumadas a buenos sistemas de saneamiento y drenaje, también preservarían la capacidad de ingresos de las personas al evitar las lesiones y la propagación de enfermedades, asegurando a la vez el suministro de agua potable.
• La mejora de la atención de la salud acelera la reincorporación a la fuerza laboral tras un shock y, junto con la educación, incrementa el potencial de ingreso y ayuda a informar las decisions.

La asistencia social también tiene un profundo impacto, ya que es crítica para compensar los ingresos perdidos y el poder adquisitivo tras un shock. Los seguros y el financiamiento para riesgos de catástrofes también pueden ser críticos, pero el éxito de esos programas en África subsahariana a menudo depende de subsidios públicos y mejoras de la educación financiera.

Concentrar las estrategias de adaptación de África subsahariana en las políticas que surten efectos desproporcionados, como la seguridad alimentaria, ayudará a reducir los costos. La implementación de estas estrategias será costosa: según muchos expertos, ascenderá a USD 30.000 millones a USD 50.000 millones (2–3% del PIB regional) cada año durante la próxima década.

Pero invertir hoy será mucho menos costoso que el frecuente alivio de desastres en el futuro, tanto en términos de vidas como de medios de vida. Según nuestro análisis, el ahorro generado por el recorte de los gastos después de un desastre podría ser inmensamente superior al costo de la inversión inicial en el fortalecimiento de la resiliencia y los mecanismos necesarios para afrontar el shock.

Procurarse fuentes de financiamiento es una tarea especialmente ardua contra el telón de fondo de la pandemia y la creciente aversión mundial al riesgo. Pero al incrementar el respaldo financiero a favor de la adaptación al cambio climático en África subsahariana, los socios para el desarrollo pueden realizar una contribución gigantesca al ayudar a los africanos a poner comida en la mesa y recuperarse de la pandemia.

DOCUMENTO: https://blog-dialogoafondo.imf.org/?p=13541&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

THE WORLD BANK GROUP. JUNE 6, 2020. COVID 19: Building a stronger recovery

Developing countries and the international community can take steps now to hasten recovery after the worst of the health crisis has passed, according to analytical chapters released from our latest Global Economic Prospects report. Securing core public services, getting money directly to people, and maintaining the private sector will limit the harm and help prepare for recovery.

• Food security: Malawi’s chronic condition of nutrition and food insecurity can deteriorate further in the coming months and COVID-19 can make the fragile agri-based economic system fall apart. To ensure food security, Malawi needs to keep the food system going. Three immediate actions are needed.
• Community impact: The World Bank’s community-driven operations draw from a strong track record of moving funds quickly and flexibly in response to crises, including in Indonesia after the 2004 tsunami. Such platforms can quickly support immediate action during COVID-19 as well.
• Related: The COVID-19 crisis highlights the everyday vulnerability in rural Indonesia, where 35 million people lack basic water and 70 million lack basic sanitation. Learn how the PAMSIMAS Program continues to improve WASH access for those who need it most.
• Health and Sanitation: With a weak health system and lack of access to water and sanitation, Haiti faces significant risks from the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Bank’s response to COVID-19 focuses on detection and infection control in health facilities while improving access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) in public spaces and health facilities.
• Telecom is booming: COVID-19 has caused a spike in the demand for connectivity and digital services. In this new sector analysis, IFC explains how this has brought business opportunities for telecoms companies.
• Due (data) diligence: The timeliness of COVID-19 case data has had a marked impact on the global fight to limit the deadly virus, leading us to wonder: What would the world look like if all development data were as timely as COVID-19 case data?
• Circular economy: Principles of the circular economy are being applied to help us cope with the current pandemic. What lessons can we take from COVID-19 for a sustainable future?
• Listen: The World Bank’s Global Director for Education, Jaime Saavedra, walks us through COVID-19’s impact on schools, students, learning, and the solutions countries are implementing.
• Go deeper: Learn how the World Bank Group is responding to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. Explore our multilingual portal.

Countries Can Take Steps Now to Rebuild from COVID-19. Securing core public services, getting money directly to people and maintaining the private sector will limit the harm and help prepare for recovery

WASHINGTON, June 2, 2020 – The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the economic shutdowns are dealing a severe blow to the global economy and especially poorer countries. Developing countries and the international community can take steps now to speed recovery after the worst of the health crisis has passed and blunt long-term adverse effects, according to analytical chapters released today from the World Bank Group’s Global Economic Prospects report.

Short-term response measures to address the health emergency and secure core public services will need to be accompanied by comprehensive policies to boost long-term growth, including by improving governance and business environments, and expanding and improving the results of investment in education and public health. To make future economies more resilient, many countries will need systems that can build and retain more human and physical capital during the recovery – using policies that reflect and encourage the post-pandemic need for new types of jobs, businesses and governance systems.

The analysis has been released ahead of the June 8 issuance of the full report, which will include the Bank Group’s latest forecasts for the global economy.

“The scope and speed with which the COVID-19 pandemic and economic shutdowns have devastated the poor around the world are unprecedented in modern times. Current estimates show that 60 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty in 2020. These estimates are likely to rise further, with the reopening of advanced economies the primary determinant,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “Policy choices made today – including greater debt transparency to invite new investment, faster advances in digital connectivity, and a major expansion of cash safety nets for the poor – will help limit the damage and build a stronger recovery. The financing and building of productive infrastructure are among the hardest-to-solve development challenges in the post-pandemic recovery. We need to see measures to speed litigation and the resolution of bankruptcies and reform the costly subsidies, monopolies and protected state-owned enterprises that have slowed development.”

Deep recessions associated with the pandemic will likely exacerbate the multi-decade slowdown in economic growth and productivity, the primary drivers of higher living standards and poverty reduction. Adding to the inequality problem from slow trend growth, the poor and vulnerable are among the hardest hit by the pandemic and economic shutdown – including through infection, school closures and lower remittance flows.

Measures needed to protect public health have undercut an already fragile global economy, causing deep recessions in advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) alike. EMDEs that have weak health systems; those that rely heavily on global trade, tourism, or remittances from abroad; and those that depend on commodity exports will be particularly hard-hit, the analysis notes.

In the long-term, the pandemic will leave lasting damage through multiple channels, including lower investment; erosion of physical and human capital due to closure of businesses and loss of schooling and jobs; and a retreat from global trade and supply linkages. These effects will lower potential output – the output an economy can sustain at full employment and capacity – and labor productivity well into the future. Pre-existing vulnerabilities, fading demographic dividends, and structural bottlenecks will amplify the long-term damage of deep recessions associated with the pandemic.

“When the pandemic struck, many emerging and developing economies were already vulnerable due to record-high debt levels and much weaker growth. Combined with structural bottlenecks, this will amplify the long-term damage of deep recessions associated with the pandemic,” said Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions.“Urgent measures are needed to limit the damage, rebuild the economy, and make growth more robust, resilient and sustainable.”

Policies to rebuild both in the short and long-term entail strengthening health services and putting in place very targeted stimulus measures to help reignite growth. This includes efforts to maintain the private sector and get money directly to people so that we may see a quicker return to business creation after this pandemic has passed. During the mitigation period, countries should focus on sustaining economic activity with targeted support to provide liquidity to households, firms and government essential services. At the same time, policymakers should remain vigilant to counter potential financial disruptions.

During the recovery period, countries will need to calibrate the winding down of public support and should be targeting broader development challenges. The analysis discusses the importance of allowing an orderly allocation of new capital toward sectors that are productive in the new post-pandemic structures that emerge.  To succeed in this, countries will need reforms that allow capital and labor to adjust relatively fast – by speeding the resolution of disputes, reducing regulatory barriers, and reforming the costly subsidies, monopolies and protected state-owned enterprises that have slowed development.

To make future economies more resilient, many countries will need systems that can build and retain more human and physical capital during the recovery – using policies that reflect and encourage the post-pandemic need for new types of jobs, businesses and governance systems. Enhancing transparency in financial commitments and investment would also help rebuild confidence and facilitate investment growth.

Restrictions on mobility and the global recession have resulted in the steepest one-month drop in oil prices on record, in March. The predominantly demand-driven plunge in oil prices, which came on the heels of disagreements among oil producers about production targets, has been accompanied by a steep rise in global oil inventories. The analysis also details the implications of the oil price plunge for the global economy and, in particular, for energy-exporting EMDEs.

In the short-term, while restrictions on transport and travel remain in place, low oil prices are unlikely to provide much support for growth and may, instead, compound the damage wrought by the pandemic by further weakening the finances of producers. Low oil prices are likely to provide at best marginal support to global activity early in the recovery.

“Oil-exporting emerging and developing economies entered the current crisis with eroded fiscal positions after having drawn on them to weather the 2014-16 oil price drop. In addition to the unprecedented public health crisis, these economies are now experiencing sharp economic downturns as their export revenues nosedive,” said Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group. “Even if oil prices rise as global oil demand recovers, the recent plunge in prices is another reminder for oil-exporting countries of the urgency to continue with reforms to diversify their economies.”

Current low oil prices also present an opportunity to review energy pricing policies as energy-importing EMDEs need to move away from costly subsidy schemes and allocate their limited fiscal resources for higher-priority expenditures involving improvements in public health and education programs.

World Bank Group COVID-19 Response

The World Bank Group, one of the largest sources of funding and knowledge for developing countries, is taking broad, fast action to help developing countries strengthen their pandemic response. We are supporting public health interventions, working to ensure the flow of critical supplies and equipment, and helping the private sector continue to operate and sustain jobs. We will be deploying up to $160 billion in financial support over 15 months to help more than 100 countries protect the poor and vulnerable, maintain the private sector, and bolster economic recovery. This includes $50 billion of new IDA resources through grants and highly concessional loans.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/06/02/countries-can-take-steps-now-to-speed-recovery-from-covid-19?cid=ECR_E_NewsletterWeekly_EN_EXT&deliveryName=DM67118

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ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRASIL ECONOMICS

CORONAVÍRUS

FGV. 05/06/2020. Impactos da COVID-19. Efeitos da pandemia no setor imobiliário

Nos últimos três meses, o índice de confiança no setor imobiliário caiu quase 25 pontos. O número é bastante representativo, principalmente porque a pandemia começou no momento em que o setor estava começando a retomada no crescimento. Segundo Ana Maria Castelo, coordenadora de projetos do FGV IBRE, o setor de construção não teve uma paralisação significativa, mas obviamente o ritmo das obras não permaneceu o mesmo. As empresas tiveram de oferecer condições para o andamento do trabalho em casa no setor administrativo e muitas vendas caíram porque estandes tiveram de ser fechados.

VÍDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RuhYK0Wh1M&feature=youtu.be

CONTAS PÚBLICAS

MEconomia. STN. REUTES. 5 DE JUNHO DE 2020. Mansueto vê como otimista projeção de déficit primário em 10% do PIB
Por Gabriel Ponte

BRASÍLIA (Reuters) - O secretário do Tesouro, Mansueto Almeida, afirmou nesta sexta-feira que a projeção para um déficit primário em torno de 10% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) para 2020 pode ser considerada, na conjuntura atual, “otimista”.

“Dez por cento do PIB para o déficit primário em 2020 passou a ser uma estimativa otimista. Se algum dos programas (de auxílio) for renovado para além de três meses, e parte da arrecadação para ser paga no segundo semestre postergada, o déficit primário será maior”, afirmou Mansueto em videoconferência promovida pela Verde Asset Management.

O secretário também apontou que o grande desafio do país é continuar avançando com a agenda do ajuste fiscal, mirando na estabilização da trajetória da dívida pública no longo prazo, de forma que ela não se torne impagável.

“A nossa falha em não continuar com o ajuste fiscal, e perder a âncora fiscal, é um país que vai ter dívida muito alta, um gasto muito alto, e os juros vão subir, e essa dívida vai se tornar impagável”, pontuou.

Mansueto também afirmou que, caso o programa de auxílio emergencial fosse tornado permanente pelo governo federal, isso implicaria uma despesa primária de mais de 8% do PIB. “A gente teria que aumentar a carga tributária do Brasil em mais de 10 pontos do PIB. É possível? Não é possível, então não faz o mínimo sentido”, explicou.

Segundo Mansueto, uma eventual extensão até o fim do ano, sob os valores atuais, do pagamento do benefício para trabalhadores informais, autônomos e desempregados em meio à crise provocada pela pandemia do Covid-19, iria fazer com que a dívida do país ultrapassasse 100% do PIB em 2020.

“A gente está falando aí de uma despesa de mais de 4% do PIB, despesa primária. Nosso déficit nominal ia para mais de 20% do PIB. A nossa dívida, tranquilamente, passaria de 100% do PIB. Essa conta, no próximo ano, eu não teria dúvida, ficaria muito salgada”, relatou.

O presidente Jair Bolsonaro já anunciou que acertou com a equipe econômica o pagamento de uma quarta e quinta parcelas do auxílio, em valor inferior aos 600 reais pagos nas três primeiras tranches, mas não houve ainda um anúncio oficial da prorrogação.

Nesta sexta, o secretário Especial de Fazenda, Waldery Rodrigues, afirmou que o pagamento adicional de mais duas parcelas do auxílio emergencial, em valor somado de 600 reais, iria custar mais 51 bilhões de reais aos cofres públicos, elevando a despesa total com o programa a cerca de 200 bilhões de reais.

PAGAMENTO DO BNDES

Em relação ao pagamento de dívidas pelo Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) ao Tesouro Nacional, Mansueto afirmou que haverá o desembolso de valor firmado em contrato ainda durante o governo do ex-presidente Michel Temer, entre 24 a 26 bilhões de reais, neste ano.

“Acredito que a partir do próximo ano, enfim, os pagamentos extras voltem, o que vai contribuir para a dívida pública também”, complementou.

ENERGIA

OPEP. RÚSSIA. REUTERS. 6 DE JUNHO DE 2020. OPEP e Rússia estenderão cortes na produção até o fim de julho
Por Ahmad Ghaddar e Rania El Gamal e Alex Lawler

MOSCOU/DUBAI/LONDRES (Reuters) - A Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo (Opep), a Rússia e aliados devem prorrogar neste sábado os cortes na produção de petróleo até o fim de julho, depois de os preços do barril terem dobrado nos últimos dois meses após a entidade ter decidido retirar quase 10% da oferta mundial do mercado.

    De acordo com um esboço de declaração obtido pela Reuters, o grupo chamado de OPEP+ também vai exigir que países como Nigéria e Iraque, que excederam suas cotas em maio e junho, compensem com cortes extras na produção de julho a setembro.

    A OPEP+ fechou acordo em abril para reduzir a oferta de petróleo em 9,7 milhões de barris por dia durante maio e junho, em um esforço para aumentar os preços da commodity, que desabaram por conta da crise do coronavírus. Esses cortes devem cair para 7,7 milhões de barris por dia de julho a dezembro.

    O barril do tipo Brent atingiu na sexta-feira maior preço em três meses, acima de 42 dólares, após chegar a custar menos de 20 dólares em abril. Mesmo assim, os preços ainda estão um terço abaixo daqueles observados no fim do ano passado.

    “Apesar dos progressos feitos até agora, não podemos afrouxar a política por ela ter dado certo”, disse o ministro de Energia da Argélia, Mohamed Arkab, atual presidente da OPEP, na abertura de reunião deste sábado.

    O esboço do comunicado informa que um comitê de monitoramento do órgão se reunirá todo mês até dezembro para recomendar o nível adequado de cortes na produção. A próxima reunião será em 18 de junho.

    Duas fontes da OPEP disseram que o grupo já concordou em uma extensão de um mês. Antes do encontro, fontes disseram que a Arábia Saudita considerava estender os cortes até dezembro.

    Maior produtora mundial e líder de fato do grupo, a Arábia Saudita e a Rússia estão agindo para que os preços subam, mas não ultrapassem muito os 50 dólares por barril, para evitar dar competitividade ao petróleo de xisto norte-americano.

A acordo de abril foi feito em meio à pressão do presidente norte-americano, Donald Trump, que teme a quebra de empresas do setor de energia nos EUA e ameaçou retirar suas tropas de território saudita caso o preço não voltasse a subir. Ele conversou com líderes russos e da Arábia Saudita antes da reunião e afirmou estar contente com a elevação.

    Com as restrições do coronavírus caindo mundo afora, a demanda por petróleo deve exceder a oferta em julho, mas a OPEP ainda tem 1 bilhão de barris em estoque, acumulados desde março, para despejar no mercado e regular os preços.

O comitê ministerial de monitoramento da OPEC+, conhecido como JMMC, vai se reunir mensalmente até dezembro para avaliar as condições do mercado e recomendar níveis de cortes. A próxima reunião do grupo foi marcada para 18 de junho e o próximo encontro da Opep e da Opep+ deve ocorrer entre 30 de novembro e 1 de dezembro.

Reportagem de Vladimir Soldatkin e Olesya Astakhova em Moscou, Rania El Gamal em Dubai, Alex Lawler e Ahmad Ghaddar em Londres, Libby George em Abuja, Ahmed Rasheed em Bagdá, Lamine Chikhi em Algiers

ANP. 01 de Junho de 2020. ANP publica versão em inglês de estudo sobre aproveitamento do gás do Pré-sal

A ANP publicou hoje (1/6) a versão em língua inglesa do “Estudo sobre o Aproveitamento do Gás Natural do Pré Sal”, lançado pela Agência em março. A publicação tem como foco o aumento da comercialização e da participação do gás natural do Pré-Sal na matriz energética do País, em linha com as diretrizes estabelecidas nas Resoluções nº 10/2016, 17/2017 e 16/2019 do Conselho Nacional de Política Energética (CNPE) e no Programa Novo Mercado de Gás.

Coordenado pela ANP, o estudo foi desenvolvido pela Agência em conjunto como Ministério de Minas e Energia (MME), a Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE), a Pré-Sal Petróleo SA (PPSA) e o BNDES. A Casa Civil da Presidência da República também acompanhou a evolução dos trabalhos por meio de representantes do Programa de Parcerias de Investimentos – PPI.

Estudo sobre o Aproveitamento do Gás Natural do Pré-Sal

A publicação tem como foco o aumento da comercialização e da participação do gás natural do pré-sal  na matriz energética do Brasil, em linha com as diretrizes estabelecidas nas Resoluções nºs 10/2016, 17/2017 e 16/2019 do Conselho Nacional de Política Energética (CNPE), assim como as diretrizes estabelecidas no Programa Novo Mercado de Gás.

Estudo: http://www.anp.gov.br/arquivos/estudos/aproveitamento-gn-pre-sal.pdf

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LGCJ.: