US ECONOMICS

OAS

U.S. Department of State. 01/17/2020. The OAS Revival. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State. Organization of American States. Washington, D.C.

SECRETARY POMPEO:  Thank you.  Good morning, everyone.  I want to thank the Permanent Council Chair from Guyana for honoring the United States request to speak today.  And I’d also like to recognize the OAS’s superb Secretary General, Luis Almagro, for your excellent leadership in support of democratic values.  I want to extend my regards, too, to Assistant Secretary General Nestor Mendez, as well.  Good to see you this morning.  And I further want to thank our ambassador, Carlos Trujillo, for all the good work that you’ve done here leading the American mission at the OAS with great vision and with great energy and vigor.  Thank you for that.

I’m reminded as I stand in front of this beautiful array of people and in this gorgeous place – I’m reminded that it was an American secretary of state, a man named James Blaine, who first advocated for a closer union of the American states in the late 19th century.  It was his vision that would become this institution, the OAS, in 1948.

It’s been an incredible privilege as America’s 70th Secretary of State to carry on my predecessor’s legacy.  Almost exactly one year ago, I spoke inside this same magnificent building.  It was a dreary, rainy day.  But this place sits in view of some of America’s greatest monuments to liberty.  They were all bright with the glow of freedom even in the gloomy day around them.

The United States had, the day before, recognized Juan Guaido as the interim president of Venezuela.  Thirteen other OAS nations had done the same.  I was proud to urge every one of your countries to join us in that.

Throughout this past year, the OAS has been a vanguard for helping the Venezuelan people, they who are so downtrodden and starving because of Maduro’s cruelty.

In only three months – very fast by diplomatic standards – we sat a new representative from Venezuela to the OAS, Ambassador Tarre.

We have helped bolster Juan Guaido’s legitimacy in the international community, despite Maduro’s best efforts to undermine him.

We revived the Rio Treaty, which led to increased travel restriction on Maduro and dozens of other officials.  And you all should know that more actions will be coming.

Maduro certainly knows that we mean business.  It’s why he sought to withdraw Venezuela from this institution, the OAS.  We welcomed Venezuela’s new representative before he got the chance to do so.

We mean what we say in that charter that my – the previous speakers referred to.  The OAS Charter says as follows, quote:  “Representative democracy is an indispensable condition for the stability, peace, and development of the region.”  End of quote.

This is multilateralism, nations coming together in a way that truly does work.

These have been landmark actions, and in taking these actions we’re returning to the spirit the OAS showed in the 1950s and 1960s.  We sent election monitors to Costa Rica in 1962.  Two years later, we imposed sanctions on Cuba for attempting to overthrow the democratically elected Government of Venezuela by force.

But sadly, the OAS drifted in the 1970s and 1980s.  Military dictatorships in our hemisphere colluded to prevent concerted action to support freedom.  Some Latin American countries were still in the thrall to leftist ideas that produced repression for their own kind at home and stagnation in this building.  And even in the early part of this century, with the OAS, many nations were more concerned with building consensus with authoritarians than actually solving problems.

But the good news is – and I’m so proud of what you all have accomplished – that’s all changed.  Yes, we enjoyed a resurgence of the democratic values in the ‘90s.  But these days – more than ever – our values drive actions that support a hemisphere of freedom.

As I said in Santiago last year, in 2019, people of the Americas have brought a new wave of freedom, freedom-minded governments all throughout our hemisphere.  Only – only in Cuba and Nicaragua and Venezuela do we face stains of tyranny on a great canvas of freedom in our hemisphere.

Look at the work that we have all done together.  We have rejected despotism this year, besides what we’ve done in Venezuela.

In Nicaragua, the Permanent Council named a Commission of Member States that has investigated the Ortega regime’s killing of hundreds and made clear recommendations for the future of that country.

More recently, the OAS honored the former Bolivian government’s request to conduct an audit of the disputed election results.  The probe conducted uncovered proof of massive and systemic fraud.  It helped end the violence that had broken out over the election dispute.  It helped the Bolivian Congress unanimously establish a date and conditions for a new election.  And it honored – importantly, it honored the Bolivian people’s courageous demand for a free and fair election, and for democracy.

These actions didn’t happen within the OAS by accident.  It took hard work.  They happened because the member states – you all – decided to use the organization to get results.  All of us, together.

They happened because we have a leader for our times as well.  Secretary Almagro is fearless in guarding against authoritarian regimes.  He believes in multilateralism that holds people accountable, that puts new ideas on the table, and forces countries to take a position.

He restored the OAS financial health too – building the reserve fund and strengthening internal financial controls.  This is crucial to making the OAS effective in promoting prosperity throughout the region.

Just a handful of years ago, the U.S. Congress – not far from where we all are right now – the U.S. Congress openly entertained slashing funding for the OAS.  Now Congress, America’s Congress, is more eager than ever to support what we’re doing together, because his leadership values capture the bipartisan values of freedom and of democracy.  And the good financial management here too gives confidence that OAS progress will be effective, cost-effective, and transparent.

Secretary Almagro is worthy of our respect and our admiration.  The heroes in the Hall of the Americas would be proud of what he’s done.  He is a true champion for freedom throughout our entire hemisphere.

And his example isn’t just for those of us in the room.  I think other leaders and other organizations – from the UN, to ASEAN, to NATO – should take note of how this institution has been run by the Secretary General – and this body has been crafted – how multilateralism that works has permeated what we all do together.

It’s energetic, it’s effective, it says – it says enterprise work must achieve real results, not just process; resolutions whose words aren’t worth whims, but are truly a basis for joint and collective action; and institutions that take votes that are responsive to the most important issues, not exercises in finding the lowest common denominator amongst us.

Now, I know, Secretary General, that you have seven children, so you’ve had a lot of practice building chaos – building from chaos and bringing order.  But all jokes aside, this is what multilateralism ought to be.  This is what happens when it’s done well.  I spoke about this 13 months ago in Brussels – I critiqued some multilateral organizations:

Sleepwalking elements of the international order must wake up.  Wishful thinking won’t restrain authoritarians in Caracas, or in Beijing, or in Tehran.

The meeting rooms of Washington and Brussels are a front line – a front line all their own.  Our citizens are trusting us to defend them – and to defend their liberties.  They deserve multilateralism that works.

Some good news – some good news right here from our own hemisphere: we are already holding the torch.

On Sunday I’ll leave on a trip to the region.  It’s only fitting that my first stop will be in Bogota – the very city where the OAS charter was forged.  Our good friend, our ally Colombia – along with Brazil – has been a leader in this forum in holding the former Maduro regime accountable.   This week, Colombia will build on the good work we did in Buenos Aires last summer and another counterterrorism ministerial.  More than 20 nations have said, “Let’s take on the bad guys.”

I’ll then head off to Costa Rica, a great friend whose commitment to democracy has been clear for many decades, and we’ll discuss the crisis of authoritarianism right on its own border with Nicaragua.

I’ll then travel to Jamaica, a good friend of America.  My team told me that would be a really tough duty.  I’ll gather at an important meeting with many Caribbean leaders to discuss how we can all work together to promote our common democratic values and prosperity for all of our people.

I’m looking forward to a fantastic set of meetings.

I want to end here with a thought – a thought that recalls the roots of this body’s great work throughout time.

In 1948, the OAS adopted the American Declaration of the Rights and Duties of Man – the world’s first-ever international human rights declaration.  It was a major influence on the Universal Declaration of Human Rights that followed it.  The OAS document reads as follows.  It says:

“All men are born free and equal, in dignity and in rights, and, being endowed by nature with reason and conscience, they should conduct themselves as brothers one to another.”

It’s up to each of you, it’s up to each of us to protect dignity and rights.  It’s up to us to conduct diplomacy as brothers – and sisters – of the citizens that we each represent.  It’s us to up – it’s up to us to sustain a multilateralism that truly works.

May God bless you all.  May God bless the work that is done here in this magnificent place.  And may God bless all of the Americas.

Thank you for being with me this morning.

COLOMBIA

U.S. Department of State. 01/20/2020. COLOMBIA AND THE UNITED STATES: STRENGTHENING OUR PARTNERSHIP

 “The United States values our friendship with Colombia – a relationship rooted in a shared set of values, a commitment to democracy, the rule of law, and fundamental human rights.”

— U.S. Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo, October 9, 2019

Secretary Pompeo will travel to Colombia on January 19 to speak at the Third Western Hemisphere Counterterrorism Ministerial in Bogota and participate in bilateral meetings with senior officials from Colombia and other countries.   The Secretary will reaffirm the strong U.S. partnership with Colombia to address peace and security for citizens, to counter narcotics production and trafficking, and to discuss the humanitarian crisis of Venezuelan refugees.

COUNTERTERRORISM SUMMIT TO CONFRONT SHARED THREATS

• The United States will join 20 nations in Bogota to broaden and deepen bilateral and multilateral counterterrorism cooperation in the Western Hemisphere. This engagement follows two previous Western Hemisphere Counterterrorism Ministerial meetings hosted in Washington, D.C., in December 2018 and in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in July 2019.
• The Ministerial will address Iran-backed terrorist proxy Hizballah’s activities in the hemisphere. Paraguay, Brazil, and Peru have arrested Hizballah operatives in the past several years on terrorism, money laundering, and other criminal charges.
• Argentina and Paraguay have adopted designations regimes and sanctioned Hizballah and other terrorist groups within the past year, while Honduras and Guatemala have stated their intent to designate Hizballah. We applaud this progress and encourage other countries to follow these examples.
• Ministerial participants will also discuss the Maduro regime’s hosting of ELN, FARC dissidents, and Hizballah sympathizers in Venezuela.  The U.S. government has certified Venezuela as “not fully cooperating with U.S. anti-terrorism” efforts annually since 2006.
• Ministerial participants will also commemorate the one-year anniversary of an attack by the ELN terrorist group on a police barrack in Bogota, killing 22 cadets.

ADVANCING COMMON SECURITY GOALS

• The United States and Colombia enjoy a long-standing friendship.  We officially recognized Colombia as an independent state in 1822, and our first diplomatic presence in Colombia was established in 1823.
• Colombia continues to be a strong partner for the United States on security issues, including counterterrorism and counternarcotics.  We are working together to reduce coca cultivation and cocaine production by 50 percent by the end of 2023.  President Duque recently announced that, with substantial U.S. assistance, Colombia eradicated more than 100,000 hectares of coca in 2019.
• The United States strongly supports Colombia’s comprehensive, whole-of-government strategy for addressing the coca/cocaine problem, which focuses on dismantling criminal organizations, reducing drug supply and demand, combating money laundering, and increasing state presence and economic opportunity in poor rural areas, where narcotics trafficking thrives.

OUR PARTNERSHIP, ROOTED IN DEMOCRATIC VALUES, SUPPORTS PEACE AND PROSPERITY

• Colombia is a key U.S. partner in ongoing efforts to help Venezuela in its return to democracy and economic prosperity.  Colombia’s leadership has been essential in coordinating regional support for Interim President Juan Guaido, as well as condemning Maduro’s misrule and adopting policies to isolate his regime, including in the OAS and Lima Group.
• The U.S. government has spent more than $251 million to help Colombia address the Venezuelan crisis and support the estimated 1.63 million Venezuelan refugees that Colombia hosts.
• Since 2016, the United States has provided more than one billion dollars in direct and indirect support to peace implementation – by far the largest contribution of any international actor.
• The United States is Colombia’s largest trade and investment partner, with large investments in the mining and manufacturing sectors. Colombia is the United States’ third-largest trade partner in Latin America, with two-way goods trade of $29 billion in 2018.  U.S.-owned affiliates account for more than 90,000 jobs in Colombia.
• We are building on our mutual success under the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA). U.S. agriculture exports have more than doubled under the CTPA, reaching a record level of $2.91 billion in 2018.  Such trade benefits both the United States and the Colombian people.

U.S. Department of State. 01/20/2020. Secretary Michael R. Pompeo and Colombian President Ivan Duque at a Press Availability. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State. Bogota, Colombia. General Santander Police Academy

PRESIDENT DUQUE:  (In Spanish.)

SECRETARY POMPEO:  Thank you, President Duque.  Good to see you again.  Good morning, everyone.  In the United States, today it’s Martin Luther King Day.  Happy recognition of this great American leader.

Before I recap my meeting with the president, I want to comment on the tragic loss that Mission Colombia and the entire State Department suffered this past weekend.  As you may already know, one of our team members, an American, is missing and presumed dead as a result of a boating accident that occurred on Saturday.  We’ve notified the next of kin but are withholding the name of the victim for privacy considerations.  Other government personnel – some assigned to Colombia and others visiting – were also rescued at the scene of the accident.  Some sustained modest injuries, and one was airlifted to the United States yesterday for treatment.

I want to thank President Duque – you, and your team, and your government – also the private citizens of Colombia – for the outstanding assistance that they provided during the course of the rescue operations.  And to my entire State Department team, Susan and I are with you in your grief.  You have my word the department will do everything in our power to comfort and support those who have suffered from this devastating loss.

Turning back to my meeting with President Duque, it’s always a privilege to come here to Colombia and visit with dear friends of the United States of America.  It’s great to get here so early in the new year.  As President Duque said, I’ve been to Colombia multiple times.  This is, in fact, my ninth trip to the region.  This region is our shared home.  What happens here in Colombia affects all of us in the United States.  And I’ve said repeatedly, most recently at the OAS just a few days ago, I’m glad to see that cooperation between democratic nations of the Western Hemisphere is at an all-time high.  Citizens are rejecting authoritarianism and embracing freedom, and that’s good for all of us.  We aspire to have a hemisphere of freedom.

The longstanding friendship between the United States and Colombia has been key to this democratic vision, and to its evolution over these past few years.  President Duque and I just discussed our commitment, our reaffirmation of a commitment and our shared values.  At the top of the agenda was the enormous humanitarian crisis in Venezuela caused by Nicolas Maduro and his regime.  I saw firsthand the devastating consequences of what Maduro brought when I traveled to Cucuta a few months back.  The world must continue to support the Venezuelan people’s efforts to restore their democracy and put an end to Maduro’s tyranny, which harms millions of Venezuelans and has an impact on Colombia, and indeed on the entire region.  The United States is grateful for the Colombian people’s generosity.  Their outstanding effort to take care of 1.6 million refugees is truly remarkable and stands in sharp contrast to the misery inflicted by Maduro.

I’m also proud of what we did together last year at the UN General Assembly in New York.  Under the Rio Treaty, we joined forces with 13 countries to share information and apply sanctions to current and former regime members, and their families.  The United States and Colombia will continue to work with those countries bilaterally to help the Venezuelan people restore democracy.

Turning to security matters, a major purpose of this trip is to build on the hemisphere’s good counterterrorism work that we did in Buenos Aires last July.  We’ll do that again with our ministerial here in just a little bit this morning.  This multilateral cooperation, so much of it targeting the financial activity of Iranian proxy groups, would have been unlikely even just a few years ago.  Colombia’s active role reflects its enduring security partnership, and your exemplary commitment to fighting all forms of terrorism is deeply appreciated and benefits everyone in the region.

Colombia has also done this at great cost.  In just a few moments I’ll attend a memorial ceremony for the 22 police cadets slain and dozens wounded by ELN terrorists just over a year ago.  President Duque and I both know that those losses, that suffering, was not in vain.

Our talks, too, affirmed our shared resolve to continue to fight drug trafficking and other forms of organized crime.  As a result of aggressive counter-narcotics efforts by President Trump and President Duque, President Duque’s administration has rolled back record high coca cultivation and cocaine production levels.  Much work remains; we’ll keep the progress going.  I know that we can.

And finally, too, Colombia is a champion in this hemisphere of freedom.  Through our shared commitment to democratic governance, the rule of law, and respect for human rights, we applaud how the Colombian Government responded to protests last year with professionalism, good planning, respect for human dignity and decency, and calls for a national dialogue.  The United States values this important friendship.  We will continue to prioritize it and prioritize our relationships here in the region, and we’ll continue to build partnerships for that hemisphere of freedom.

Thank you, Mr. President, for being with me this morning.

PRESIDENT DUQUE:  (In Spanish.)

(Via interpreter)  Thank you very much, dear Secretary Pompeo.  I would also like first of all to express our solidarity and our condolences.  Our solidarity for the incident that occurred over the weekend, which was an accident and that affected some U.S. citizens, and naturally express our condolences for what has been a several-days search for embassy officials.

As you all know, we have the national navy teams as well as all the local and coast guard services engaged in the corresponding investigation in an effort to reach fruitful results so as to find the body of the person that has not been found yet.  You know, Secretary Pompeo, that we have a shared solidarity in this respect and the people of Colombia regret the incident.

In the second place, I would like to thank you for coming back to Colombia, and I want to thank you for visiting this school, the General Santander Police Academy.  This is a cadet training center of national police of Colombia – men and women, young men and women who have made the decision to follow the path to do good, to serve the community, to serve the people, to be willing to put their life on the line for others.

So your visit today is something that we receive as homage to those 22 angels that were brutally and cruelly assassinated by terrorism, but they accompany us from the sky and they hope that we build in Colombia, but in other parts of the world, a concept of peace with legality where we see the rule of law, to impose exemplary sanctions against whoever resorts to these despicable actions.  And I thank you for participating in this homage.  And I believe that this hemispheric effort against terrorism is of paramount importance.  It’s important because there are too many Latin American countries, there will be many Latin American countries present here, and they will continue the efforts that started not just in Buenos Aires and in Santiago, the preparatory meeting, but in D.C. so that we have the best possible coordination to stand up to this global scourge.

And once again, if this, Mr. Secretary Pompeo, should be a meeting where the countries of Latin America can progress in the implementation of all the instruments derived from the UN Security Council on the fight against terrorism, and underlining Resolution 1373 of the year 2001 whereby we all condemn, censor, sanction, and adopt the necessary actions whenever we see states sponsoring, protecting, or allowing that terrorist activities take place in their country.

In this morning’s conversation, we were able to share our concerns regarding the support that the tyranny and dictatorship of Nicolas Maduro is giving to terrorists in its territory.  And I will address that topic during the conference.  But I am convinced that this meeting that also has TIAR member countries, will allow us to elevate those denouncements and sanctions, and the international community will be more strict in its combating terrorism.

Allow me to add our deepfelt gratitude for last week’s visit by Dr. Adam Boehler, who reports to you directly.  And Adam is currently leading the new financial instrument for development that has been an evolution of what – it used to be the OPIC.  His visit to Colombia was very, very important because it was clear that the United States has an agenda to support the territorial approach development projects, as well as to build peace with legality by bringing financial and development tools to the regions to enhance the provision of public goods in regions harshly hit by violence and poverty.  I believe that the effort made last week with this very important announcement for coming years reaffirms that we will be in the regions with security and justice, and at the same time with the provision of public goods.  So we truly thank you for your support.

I would also like to express – as you yourself have said – that the work in combating drugs will be maintained.  It is comprehensive, and it responds to a government policy and to a state policy that combine a multiplicity of tools.  But we can clearly say that in the year 2019 was a year where Colombia reached peak numbers in manual eradication and seizures, as well as achieving record numbers in destroying the illegal labs and capabilities of these illegal groups.  In 2019, we also made great strides in development projects in regions harshly hit by this scourge.  And there is yet a lot more to be done, but every day we need to improve our capabilities.  And I am convinced that this alliance of shared responsibility and coordination must be preserved in order to stand up to one of the worst scourges faced by our societies.

Mr. Secretary Pompeo, allow me now to address the topic of the humanitarian assistance provided to Venezuelan migrants in Colombia.  U.S. support has been very important.  We need to mobilize more resources from the international community to service the migrant population, particularly the one arriving in our country seeking medical care or vaccination that know they cannot find in Venezuela.  We also need to mobilize additional efforts from the international community to deal with the malnutrition of the children arriving in our country.  That’s why we are so interested in the next few days urging and calling other countries to join us in our cause.

But I would like to thank what has been true coordination to denounce the evil effects of the dictatorship of Nicolas Maduro in the worst humanitarian and migration crisis that Latin America has seen in its recent history.  And we discussed it today, because we are talking about over 6 million people who have left Venezuela in recent years.  And Colombia has received 1.6 million Venezuelan migrants, and we know the fiscal, social, and economic pressure this brings with it.  But it is clear to us that the only way to solve this is when we see a credible transition taking place in Venezuela.  And hence the importance of what you and I discussed today and that we have announced publicly in recent days: the urgent plea to hold and call – to call and hold free, credible elections in Venezuela.  And for such free and credible elections will also go hand in hand with an economic reactivation plan, and there we see the entire international community converge around that.

We stand firm in that regard, Secretary Pompeo, and we will do the same in all international instances.  We will repeat this plea, this call, and I would like to say that the progress made in TIAR to denounce all that the Venezuelan dictatorship is doing through its criminal structures must translate into pressuring that political transition as promptly as possible.

The other topics we have looked at today are of the bilateral and hemispheric nature.  But allow me to close by saying the following: This meeting that has brought us here today, where we will talk about the binational agenda reaffirms the commitment of two countries to strengthen their trade, their investment, their joint work in favor of security, combating terrorism and combating narco-trafficking.  Colombia and the United States have had a historical alliance, and it will be preserved, maintained, and enhanced.  And today we are strengthened because we want to defend freedom in a country such as our sister nation of Venezuela.

Thank you very much, Secretary Pompeo.  And once again, my solidarity with you for the incidents occurred in recent days.  Thank you very much.  (Applause.)

VENEZUELA

U.S. Department of State. 01/20/2020. Secretary Michael R. Pompeo With Venezuelan Interim President Juan Guaido. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State. Bogota, Colombia. General Santander Police Academy

INTERIM PRESIDENT GUAIDO:  (In Spanish.)

SECRETARY POMPEO:  President Guaido, thank you for being here today.  And thank you for joining a huge group of countries today who’s working on fighting terrorism all around the world, including in Venezuela.

A couple thoughts.  First, for the Venezuelan people, I want you to know that your president is a great leader who wants to take your country in the right direction – the direction of freedom, democracy, to restore economic prosperity.  You should know that countries across the world – in Latin America, where we are today, here in Colombia; in Europe; the United States; all across North America – the people, the democratic people of those countries are with you.  We’re here to ensure – to do everything we can to ensure that you get that opportunity, you get the chance simply to live the lives that you want, with democracy and freedom, so that you can take care of your families.  And President Guaido is working diligently to achieve that.

On the other hand, Maduro has engaged in activities that have now caused millions of people to have to flee Venezuela.  He’s destroyed lives.  He’s destroyed families.  He’s now added to his terror regime, working alongside terror organizations inside of his own country.  He’s now running an operation that looks more like a cartel than anything else that one could describe.  This isn’t good for Venezuela, it’s not good for the countries that are around Venezuela – here in Colombia, Ecuador, or all the countries of the region, for Peru, for Brazil.  These people have now had to flee those countries so that they could do the simple thing of taking care of their family because of Maduro’s terrorism.

The United States and all the countries that assembled here today for this Counterterrorism Ministerial will continue to work to solve this problem set.  We have a real opportunity to expand on democracy and freedoms throughout South America.  We’ve seen in the last years, we’ve seen it expand and grow.  We will get this hemisphere of freedom, and we’re prepared to work alongside President Guaido and the good people of Venezuela to deliver democracy.

Thank you for (inaudible).

MS ORTAGUS:  Okay.  Humeyra, go ahead.

QUESTION:  Hello.  Could you tell us a little bit about your meetings in Davos?  Are you going to be meeting with President Trump?  And how are you planning to get back into the country?  Are you not worried about getting arrested?

And to Secretary Pompeo:  Are you prepared to sanction Russia over its backing of the Maduro government?  For example, oil company Rosneft  Thank you.

INTERIM PRESIDENT GUAIDO:  (Via interpreter) (Inaudible) at the risk of being jailed or killed.  The dictatorship is brutal, and there are thousands that are maintaining (inaudible) in jail in several others.  The risk exists in Venezuela.  We are aware of that, and we have the duty to get a transition (inaudible).  Yes, there is a risk we assume on behalf of Venezuelans, in behalf of democracy.  It is – and this is important because we are not alone, the Venezuelans.  We are fighting in Venezuela.  We’re facing armed groups, paramilitary groups that are financed by the dictators.  We are joined in a cause.  We are a country united, fighting to recover democracy.  There is no problem among ideological tendencies.  It’s a problem of terrorism, a turning against democracy and freedom.

And as we go forwards, I will talk about details of our important meetings in Europe with the European Union.  And they will take place in Davos, yes.

SECRETARY POMPEO:  We don’t talk about particular sanctions, but everyone can fully expect that the United States is not done.  The work that we’ve done over these past months has been building to the place that we find ourselves today, and I would fully expect that there will be further actions that the United States will take to continue to support President Guaido and the Venezuelan people.

MS ORTAGUS:  Okay.  RCN?

QUESTION:  Yes, hi.  How are you?  Mr. Guaido, Mr. Secretary Pompeo, thanks for being here.  If is – if there’s evidence of the presence of Hizballah in Venezuela, will the Department of State of the United States will consider putting the regiment of Venezuela in the list of the countries that support terrorism?

SECRETARY POMPEO:  So we’re constantly evaluating which countries to designate as terrorist entities.  But make no mistake about it, whether it’s the ELN or the FARC, there are elements of Hizballah throughout many countries in South America.  Very happy today to see that the Colombians today added to their list of terrorist organizations Hizballah.  We’ve now seen multiple countries in Central and South America follow the lead of the United States, have designated Hizballah a terrorist organization.  And the United States is constantly reviewing how we can most effectively drive out this terrorism not only from the United States, but from the entire North American continent.

MS ORTAGUS:  Cami, CBS.

QUESTION:  Just to follow up on the first question, specifically what can European leaders do to help you?  And do you feel like you’ve lost momentum at home?

INTERIM PRESIDENT GUAIDO:  (Via interpreter) The fight for democracy does not lose momentum.  We find alternatives, different pathways; we reinforce mechanisms.  And we – when a dictatorship with links with the ELN and Hizballah and who has not been ashamed to infiltrate the different organizations in murdering political leaders in Venezuela.  They are very active.  And Venezuela has mobilized to (inaudible) is in Europe.  He’ll be in London tomorrow.  We’ll have bilaterals at the World Economic Forum.

But I prefer to talk about that later.  We live in a dictatorship, so we are implementing strategies to attain our objectives, reinforce the pressure against dictatorships.  The dictators won’t want to give up the power they’ve taken.  They generated the greatest migration in the continent.  We’re much more like Syria than like Cuba.  The indicators in terms of migration, access to services, the inflation, there’s no vaccines for our children – they are dying because of lack of food.

So this is a long-term strategy.  We’re facing it.  So there are forces that cannot be stopped when you seek democracy.  This is what we’re seeing in Venezuela.  We’re mobilizing.  We have demonstrating, and we are not going to be different in the next few months.

MS ORTAGUS:  Blu Radio.

QUESTION:  Mr. Secretary Pompeo, right here.  Colombia has now the same terrorist list as the United States, but the government had to make clear that FARC is not on our terrorist list since the peace process was signed.  Why after three years of the peace process FARC is still in the terrorist list of the United States?

SECRETARY POMPEO:  Each country makes its own sovereign decisions.  And I spoke with President Duque today.  There is no separation between our vision for how it is that terrorism needs to be fought.  We’re working together on that.  Our teams across multiple agencies are working to deliver on efforts to take – counter terrorism not only out of Colombia, but out of the provinces that adjoin Colombia from Venezuela.  We are united in that mission.  There is no daylight between how Colombia and the United States think about the battle for freedom and the fight against terrorists.

QUESTION:  But are you considering taking out FARC?

SECRETARY POMPEO:  May I – may I just go back?  You asked a question about what the Europeans can do.  There – it was suggested in that question somehow that there’s separation between how the Europeans and the Americans and others are thinking about this.  I was just with the leaders from Europe last night in Berlin.  They share the same view we do.  This is a failed state, and the fight for democracy is valuable and real.  It’s just as valuable and real to the Europeans as it is to the Americans.  And so we are working closely alongside them to deliver freedom for the people of Venezuela.  No one should – I’ve heard ideas, something of that we underestimated Maduro.  What’s been underestimated is the desire for freedom that rests in the hearts of the Venezuelan people.  We are collectively – the Europeans, the other countries in South America, and the United States – determined to deliver that outcome for the people of Venezuela.

QUESTION:  And you’re not afraid that losing momentum —

MS ORTAGUS:  Thank you, press.

QUESTION:  Thank you.

MS ORTAGUS:  Thanks, everybody.

QUESTION:  Thank you.

COUNTERTERRORISM

U.S. Department of State. 01/19/2020. Acting Undersecretary for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights Ambassador Nathan A. Sales Travels to Colombia

Ambassador Nathan A. Sales will travel to Bogota, Colombia, from January 19–21. Ambassador Sales will participate in the Third Western Hemisphere Counterterrorism Ministerial and, acting with the authorities of the Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights, meet with senior Colombian officials to discuss bilateral and regional cooperation on counternarcotics, migration, information sharing, and counterterrorist financing issues.

U.S. Department of State. 01/19/2020. Secretary Michael R. Pompeo Remarks to Traveling Press. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State. En Route to Lajes The Azores, Portugal

SECRETARY POMPEO: So just a couple things, then I’m happy to take a few questions. First of all, I’m sure you’ve seen the reporting from Colombia that there was a ship that had an accident. There was a person underneath the chief of mission control who’s missing and presumed dead, a very unfortunate accident. We’re notifying next of kin, and I just want to express my deep concern about this. It was a terrible event.

Second, I just left the Berlin gathering where we had most of the parties who have the capacity to improve the lives of the Libyan people. There was progress made towards a full-fledged ceasefire, a truce, temporary stand-down. There’s still a lot of work to do. It’s a complicated battlefield. But you had President Erdogan, President Putin, Chancellor Merkel, all making a sincere commitment; Special Representative Salame who’s running the UN (inaudible) making a sincere commitment and said we’re going to do this – we’re going to reduce risks, we’re going to conduct the ceasefire. Still some questions about how well and how effectively we can monitor this, but I’m optimistic that there will be less violence and there’ll be an opportunity to begin the conversation that Special Representative Salame has been trying to get going between the Libyan parties – much more likely today than it was before this meeting. So I’m appreciative of what Chancellor Merkel was able to do.

And then finally, I’m looking forward to the trip. We’ll have a – we will start off with a meeting with President Duque and then move into the reason for the trip, which is a counterterrorism gathering put together by nations from – leaders from all across South American countries, talking about how we’re going to counter terrorism and how we’re going to work on this together.

So with that, happy to take a handful of questions.

QUESTION: So just —

MS ORTAGUS: Wait, that’s not how we do it here. We’ll go around and everybody gets one question each.

Go ahead, Humeyra.

SECRETARY POMPEO: Hi.

QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, hi, hello. How – what – how big of a priority is Libya for President Trump? What is the U.S. prepared to do? Are you prepared to militarily engage if it comes to that? And if Hiftar seizes Tripoli, would you recognize him as the legitimate leader?

SECRETARY POMPEO: Well, we never get out in front of things we will do or the things we won’t do. America has a counterterrorism interest there. There are important energy opportunities there in Libya. One of the things I did mention is that we hope that the closure that had taken place – the closure of some of the crude oil getting out – we hope that will be opened up as a result of this conversation as well. And we’re committed to a political resolution, as we have been for a long time, and we’re implementing U.S., United States’ efforts, diplomatic efforts to achieving that outcome.

MS ORTAGUS: Okay. Kevin, your turn.

QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, there’s been some reports that President – that President Guaido is going to be in Colombia. Are you planning to meet with him and what are your goals with regards to Venezuela as it relates to Colombia?

SECRETARY POMPEO: Yeah. Well, we hope he’ll be there. When we have leaders and we’re talking about counterterrorism in South America, he’s the duly elected leader in Venezuela; we hope he’ll join us and I look forward to having a meeting with him. Our mission in Venezuela hasn’t changed. We are convinced that the Venezuelan people deserve a better 2020 than they had in 2019. Maduro has been destructive. He – you have millions of people who have to flee the country to the very country I’m headed to, to Colombia. Our mission set is to continue to work through all the diplomatic channels to achieve the outcome that President Trump laid out now about 18 months ago.

MS ORTAGUS: CBS.

QUESTION: Can you talk about some of the ideas that were discussed about enforcing a ceasefire in Libya, and was there a commitment to the UN arms embargo from various sides?

SECRETARY POMPEO: Yeah, so we talked a lot about the UN arms embargo and the fact that there are many nations that are violating that. There was lots of conversation about how it is we’ll get these various participants who have been providing weapons systems that have been fueling this conflict, and the need to unwind that. I think we made progress, at least progress in getting fewer new weapons systems, fewer new forces to flow into the region, so that we can get at least a standstill so that we can begin to unwind this potential tragedy and get to the political resolution that I know everybody that came there today wanted to achieve.

QUESTION: And the monitoring of the ceasefire?

SECRETARY POMPEO: Yeah, I’m going to let Chancellor Merkel talk about that. I hope that she’ll have something that she can announce tomorrow.

MS ORTAGUS: Jessica.

QUESTION: Back to on Venezuela.

SECRETARY POMPEO: Yes, ma’am.

QUESTION: Would you agree with what has been said by Abrams that the U.S. underestimated Russia and is – are you prepared to sanction Rosneft? And how much of a setback would you say the National Assembly violence that we saw in the past week is for the goal there?

SECRETARY POMPEO: I think everyone understood that the challenge – the challenge of restoring democracy to Venezuela – was going to be difficult. I don’t – I can speak for most of the folks that I deal with every day around the world: We all knew this would be an enormous challenge, that Maduro would not go away easily. We’ve made real progress. If the Cubans will stop propping him up – and we’re working to convince them that this is not in the Cuban people’s best interest – and if those around him from a security perspective will ultimately make the conclusion that Venezuela is better off with Maduro having departed, then I think we can get our objective. But I – everybody wants to know the day and the hour. We don’t know the day and the hour. What we know is we can help the opposition continue to congeal, continue to build forces. They represent the Venezuelan people, and our mission set is to deliver a set of free and fair elections to the Venezuelan people so that they can have a presidential election that represents them and we can begin to put the Venezuelan economy back on its feet and get it going in the right direction.

MS ORTAGUS: (Inaudible.) All right.

QUESTION: I just wanted to clarify: Has the State Department opened its own investigation into the security of Ambassador Yovanovitch when she was in Ukraine? And can you clarify some —

SECRETARY POMPEO: Sorry, did who open their own investigation?

QUESTION: The State Department.

QUESTION: Has the State Department opened its own investigation? And something you said on some radio shows last week about not communicating, not knowing Lev Parnas. Can you say that you knew what he was tasked with as an associate of Rudy Giuliani on behalf of the President personally, while he was in Ukraine?

SECRETARY POMPEO: I’d never heard of Lev Parnas until this all became public.

QUESTION: And about the investigation?

SECRETARY POMPEO: Anytime there are allegations that some officer of the State Department is at risk, we take a look at it. We’re committed to that and we’ll keep doing it. Sometimes we resolve these things very quickly – we conclude that what we thought might have been going on wasn’t going on and we can end it quickly; sometimes we need to do more. We don’t talk about it in detail in terms of what we’re actually doing. But I want every one of the members of the State Department team to know that if there are allegations that someone is doing something that might put them at risk, the State Department takes those allegations seriously and we’ll do our best not only to figure out what’s real, but to make sure that they’re safe and secure.

MS ORTAGUS: Okay. Thanks, everybody.

SECRETARY POMPEO: Great. Thanks, everybody.

QUESTION: Thank you, sir.

SECRETARY POMPEO: Have a great trip. Just another couple of hours.

U.S. Department of State. 01/20/2020. Secretary Michael R. Pompeo At the Opening Plenary of the Third Western Hemisphere Counterterrorism Ministerial. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State. Bogota, Colombia. General Santander Police Academy

SECRETARY POMPEO:  Good morning.  Buenos dias, everyone.  Thanks for the Colombians’ gracious hosting of this event.  I was very encouraged how we grew our regional focus on terrorism when we had our meeting in July.  The tough stand that we took, we united.  It was proof that we intend to build out a hemisphere of freedom together.

Today’s effort continues that work.  It’s very fitting that we gather today in this place.  Only one year ago not yards from where we’re sitting, ELN terrorists carried out a deadly attack on the grounds of this police academy, killing and wounding dozens of promising cadets.  The ceremony we just held with the family members of the victims was quite moving, and reminds us all of the work that we have in front of us.

It hit home for me just as it did for Colombia.  Several of the victims were attending the academy on scholarships from the United States.  On behalf of the American people, I send my condolences to those victims and to their loved ones.

That attack underscored how terrorism doesn’t discriminate by nationality.  It doesn’t care; it threatens all of us.  The ELN killed or injured cadets from Colombia, from Ecuador, from Panama.  We must continue to combat terrorism wherever it rears its ugly head.

And we’re not just referring to the people who detonate bombs and pull triggers.  I also mean the networks that facilitate those acts.  Take, for example, the Maduro regime, which has harbored supporters of terrorist groups like ELN and FARC dissidents who have helped drive the growth of violence and illicit trafficking in the country.  These groups must lay down their arms, and the Maduro regime must be held to account for its support of them.

I want to thank everyone in the region who has supported Juan Guaido, the national assembly, and the Venezuelan people as they seek to restore democracy and prosperity in their country.  We all know, too, that the Iranian regime’s top terrorist proxy, Hizballah, has found a home in Venezuela under Maduro.  This is unacceptable.

Since last we met, the United States has done our part to take down the threat of Iran’s proxies.  We eliminated Qasem Soleimani, and we strengthened our maximum pressure campaign of economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and strategic deterrence.  The United States is encouraged to see how other nations have also confronted Hizballah and other terror groups.

When we met in July, Argentina established its domestic terrorism designations regime and used it to sanction Hizballah.  Our Paraguayan allies also established a designations regime and sanctioned Hizballah, ISIS, and also al-Qaida.  And in just the last several weeks, Honduras has announced it is declaring Hizballah a terrorist organization, and the new administration in Guatemala has stated its intention to do the same.  The Peruvian prosecution of alleged Hizballah operative Mohammed Hamdar continues as we sit here today.

Last year, 2019, the government in Argentina froze the financial assets of 14 individuals belonging to the Barakat.  Brazilian federal police arrested its leader, Assad Ahmad Barakat, and with good cause.  Today the United States of America applauds what we just heard from President Duque, our friend and ally Colombia’s declaring Hizballah a terrorist organization.  I hope that other nations will take similar steps to crack down on this group and other terrorist organizations by levying designations, cutting off terrorist financing, and bringing charges against suspected operatives.

Finally, there are a few more actions we should take to counter terror activities.  We must honor the high-level commitments made at the last ministerial to do better countering terror finance and travel, and fulfill our UN Security Council obligations on these same matters.

We call on all of our neighbors to adopt legal frameworks that enable them to sanction terrorists.  We must increase information sharing between our intelligence and law enforcement agencies as well, and we must work together to make our institutions designated to combat terror more transparent and more effective.  And we must rally other nations in the hemisphere to join the more than 20 of us who are here today.

Neutralizing terrorists is one of President Trump’s top national security priorities.  The United States is ready to partner with each and every one of your countries in every way possible.  Let’s share the burden.  Let’s work on this program so that we can indeed have a hemisphere of freedom.

Thank you, Madam Foreign Minister.

MRE. DCOM. 20/01/2020. Agenda do Senhor Ministro de Estado das Relações Exteriores

Oferenda floral em homenagem às vítimas do atentado terrorista de 17 de janeiro de 2019;   Abertura da 3ª Conferência Ministerial de Luta contra o Terrorismo no Hemisfério;  Adoção da Declaração de Bogotá contra o Terrorismo;  Encerramento da 3ª Conferência Ministerial de Luta contra o Terrorismo no Hemisfério;  Fotografia oficial, seguida pela leitura à imprensa da Declaração de Bogotá contra o Terrorismo; Encontro com o Secretário de Estado dos EUA, Mike Pompeo; Almoço oferecido pela Ministra de Relações Exteriores da Colômbia, Claudia Blum de Barberi.

SOUTH AMERICA

U.S. Department of State. 01/20/2020. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale’s Travel to Bolivia and Uruguay

Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale will travel to La Paz, Bolivia and Montevideo, Uruguay, January 20-24.  In La Paz, he will meet with Transitional President Anez and other Bolivian political leaders.  They will discuss the need to ensure free, fair, inclusive and transparent elections on May 3 and opportunities to improve economic growth and strengthen our bilateral relationship.

In Montevideo, Under Secretary Hale will meet with Uruguayan President-elect Luis Lacalle Pou and other Uruguyan political leaders.  They will discuss opportunities to strengthen the bilateral relationship under the new Uruguayan administration, support for democracy in Venezuela, and regional economic development.

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ORGANISMS

GLOBAL ECONOMY

IMF. JANUARY 20, 2020. Tentative Stabilization, Sluggish Recovery?
By Gita Gopinath

In the October World Economic Outlook, we described the global economy as in a synchronized slowdown, with escalating downside risks that could further derail growth. Since then, some risks have partially receded with the announcement of a US-China Phase I trade deal and lower likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Monetary policy has continued to support growth and buoyant financial conditions. With these developments, there are now tentative signs that global growth may be stabilizing, though at subdued levels.

In this update to the World Economic Outlook, we project global growth to increase modestly from 2.9 percent in 2019 to 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021. The slight downward revision of 0.1 percent for 2019 and 2020, and 0.2 percent for 2021, is owed largely to downward revisions for India. The projected recovery for global growth remains uncertain. It continues to rely on recoveries in stressed and underperforming emerging market economies, as growth in advanced economies stabilizes at close to current levels.

There are preliminary signs that the decline in manufacturing and trade may be bottoming out. This is partly from an improvement in the auto sector as disruptions from new emission standards start to fade. A US-China Phase I deal, if durable, is expected to reduce the cumulative negative impact of trade tensions on global GDP by end 2020—from 0.8 percent to 0.5 percent.

The projected recovery for global growth remains uncertain.

The service sector remains in expansionary territory, with resilient consumer spending supported by sustained wage growth. The almost synchronized monetary easing across major economies has supported demand and contributed an estimated 0.5 percentage point to global growth in both 2019 and 2020.

In advanced economies, growth is projected to slow slightly from 1.7 percent in 2019 to 1.6 percent in 2020 and 2021. Export dependent economies like Germany should benefit from improvements in external demand, while US growth is forecast to slow as fiscal stimulus fades.

For emerging market and developing economies, we forecast a pickup in growth from 3.7 percent in 2019 to 4.4 percent in 2020 and 4.6 percent in 2021, a downward revision of 0.2 percent for all years. The biggest contributor to the revision is India, where growth slowed sharply owing to stress in the nonbank financial sector and weak rural income growth. China’s growth has been revised upward by 0.2 percent to 6 percent for 2020, reflecting the trade deal with the United States.

The pickup in global growth for 2020 remains highly uncertain as it relies on improved growth outcomes for stressed economies like Argentina, Iran, and Turkey and for underperforming emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, India, and Mexico.

Risks retreating but still prominent

Overall, the risks to the global economy remain on the downside, despite positive news on trade and diminishing concerns of a no-deal Brexit. New trade tensions could emerge between the United States and the European Union, and US-China trade tensions could return. Such events alongside rising geopolitical risks and intensifying social unrest could reverse easy financing conditions, expose financial vulnerabilities, and severely disrupt growth.

Importantly, even if downside risks appear to be somewhat less salient than in 2019, policy space to respond to them is also more limited. It is therefore essential that policymakers do no harm and further reduce policy uncertainty, both domestic and international. This will help to revive investment, which remains weak.

Policy priorities

Monetary policy should remain accommodative where inflation is still muted. With interest rates expected to stay low for long, macroprudential tools should be proactively used to prevent the build-up of financial risks.

Given historically low interest rates alongside weak productivity growth, countries with fiscal space should invest in human capital and climate-friendly infrastructure to raise potential output. Economies with unsustainable debt levels will need to consolidate, including through effective revenue mobilization. To ensure a timely fiscal response if growth were to slow sharply, countries should prepare contingent measures in advance and enhance automatic stabilizers. A coordinated fiscal response may be needed to improve the effectiveness of individual measures. Across all economies, a key imperative is to undertake structural reforms, enhance inclusiveness, and ensure that safety nets protect the vulnerable.

Countries need to cooperate on multiple fronts to lift growth and spread prosperity. They need to reverse protectionist trade barriers and resolve the impasse over the World Trade Organization’s appellate court. They must adopt strategies to limit the rise in global temperatures and the severe consequences of weather-related natural disasters. A new international taxation regime is needed to adapt to the growing digital economy and to curtail tax avoidance and evasion, while ensuring that all countries receive their fair share of tax revenues.

To conclude, while there are signs of stabilization, the global outlook remains sluggish and there are no clear signs of a turning point. There is simply no room for complacency, and the world needs stronger multilateral cooperation and national-level policies to support a sustained recovery that benefits all.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://blogs.imf.org/2020/01/20/tentative-stabilization-sluggish-recovery/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

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INDICADORES/INDICATORS

• US ECONOMIC INDICATORS
• US INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
• BALANÇA COMERCIAL BRASILEIRA
• BACEN. BOLETIM FOCUS: RELATÓRIO SEMANAL DE MERCADO (Projeções atualizadas semanalmente pelas 100 principais instituições financeiras que operam no Brasil, para os principais indicadores da economia brasileira)
• BACEN. Indicadores Econômicos Consolidados
• BACEN. Indicadores Econômicos Selecionados
• BACEN. IBC-Br
• BACEN. Câmbio
• BOVESPA
• INDICADORES DO BANCO MUNDIAL

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BACEN. BOLETIM FOCUS: RELATÓRIO SEMANAL DE MERCADO

(Projeções atualizadas semanalmente pelas 100 principais instituições financeiras que operam no Brasil, para os principais indicadores da economia brasileira)

ANÁLISE

BACEN. PORTAL G1. 20/01/2020. Mercado reduz estimativa de inflação em 2020 e vê alta maior do PIB. Previsão de inflação deste ano passou de 3,58% para 3,56%. Economistas elevaram de 2,30% para 2,31% a projeção para o crescimento da economia nesse ano.
Por Alexandro Martello, G1 — Brasília

Os economistas do mercado financeiro reduziram sua estimativa de inflação para este ano e também passaram a projetar um crescimento um pouco maior do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB).

As projeções fazem parte do boletim de mercado, conhecido como relatório "Focus", divulgado nesta segunda-feira (20) pelo Banco Central (BC). Os dados constam de um levantamento feito na semana passada com mais de 100 instituições financeiras.

De acordo com o boletim, os analistas do mercado financeiro reduziram a estimativa de inflação para 2020 de 3,58% para 3,56%. Foi a terceira queda consecutiva do indicador.

A expectativa de inflação do mercado para este ano segue abaixo da meta central, de 4%. O intervalo de tolerância do sistema de metas varia de 2,5% a 5,5%.

A meta de inflação é fixada pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN). Para alcançá-la, o Banco Central eleva ou reduz a taxa básica de juros da economia (Selic).

No ano passado, o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA), considerado a inflação oficial do Brasil, fechou em 4,31%, acima do centro da meta para o ano, que era de 4,25%. Foi a maior inflação anual desde 2016.

Para 2021, o mercado financeiro manteve a estimativa de inflação em 3,75%. No ano que vem, a meta central de inflação é de 3,75% e será oficialmente cumprida se o índice oscilar de 2,25% a 5,25%.

Produto Interno Bruto

O mercado financeiro elevou a previsão de crescimento para a economia brasileira em 2020 de 2,30% para 2,31%. Para o próximo ano, a previsão de crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) permaneceu em 2,50%.

O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços feitos no país, independentemente da nacionalidade de quem os produz, e serve para medir o comportamento da economia brasileira.

Outras estimativas

• Taxa de juros: o mercado manteve a previsão para a taxa Selic no fim de 2020 em 4,5% ao ano. Atualmente, a taxa de juros já está nesse patamar. Para o fechamento de 2021, a expectativa do mercado para a taxa Selic permaneceu estável em 6,25% ao ano.
• Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio no fim de 2020 subiu de R$ 4,04 para R$ 4,05 por dólar. Para o fechamento de 2021, continuou em R$ 4 por dólar.
• Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção em 2020 subiu de US$ 37,31 bilhões para US$ 37,40 bilhões de resultado positivo. Para o ano que vem, a estimativa dos especialistas do mercado continuou em US$ 35 bilhões.
• Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil, em 2020, permaneceu em US$ 80 bilhões. Para 2021, a estimativa dos analistas recuou de US$ 84,75 bilhões para US$ 84,50 bilhões.

BACEN. REUTERS. 20 DE JANEIRO DE 2020. Mercado reduz projeção para inflação e vê mais crescimento em 2020
Por Camila Moreira

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - O mercado voltou a reduzir a expectativa para a inflação este ano ao mesmo tempo em que ajustou para cima as contas para o crescimento da economia, de acordo com a pesquisa Focus divulgada pelo Banco Central nesta segunda-feira.

O levantamento semanal mostrou que a expectativa para a alta do IPCA em 2020 caiu pela terceira semana seguida, em 0,02 ponto percentual, a 3,56%. Para 2021 permaneceu em um avanço de 3,75%.

O centro da meta oficial de 2020 é de 4% e, de 2021, de 3,75%, ambos com margem de tolerância de 1,5 ponto percentual para mais ou menos.

A revisão ocorre na esteira de uma perspectiva mais fraca para a alta dos preços administrados este ano. Os economistas consultados passaram a ver inflação dos administrados de 3,77%, ante 3,81% antes.

Para o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), a estimativa de crescimento este ano foi elevada a 2,31%, de 2,30% na semana anterior, enquanto que para 2021 continuou em 2,5%.

Contribuiu para esse aumento a melhora do cenário para a produção industrial, que deve crescer 2,19% em 2020, contra 2,10% previstos anteriormente. Entretanto, para 2021 a perspectiva de expansão caiu em 0,05 ponto, a 2,45%.

A pesquisa semanal com uma centena de economistas mostrou ainda que a taxa básica de juros terminará este ano a 4,5% e o próximo a 6,25%, sem alterações.

A Selic fechou 2019 a 4,5%, nova mínima histórica, após novo corte de 0,5 ponto percentual em dezembro, quando o BC indicou cautela em relação aos juros daqui para frente em meio a uma retomada econômica com mais ímpeto.

O Top-5, grupo dos que mais acertam as previsões continua vendo a Selic a 4,25% em 2020 e a 6,25% em 2021.

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ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRAZIL ECONOMICS

COMÉRCIO EXTERIOR BRASILEIRO

MEconomia. 20/01/2020. Comércio Exterior. Corrente de comércio chega a US$ 5,864 bilhões na terceira semana de janeiro. A balança registrou déficit de US$ 816 milhões no período, com importações superando as exportações; no mês, há superávit de US$ 934 milhões

A balança comercial brasileira registrou US$ 5,864 bilhões de exportações e importações, na terceira semana do mês de janeiro, segundo dados divulgados nesta segunda-feira (20/01) pela Secretaria de Comércio Exterior (Secex) do Ministério da Economia. O resultado foi gerado pela soma das exportações, no valor de US$ 2,524 bilhões, e importações, que chegaram a US$ 3,340 bilhões, com déficit de US$ 816 milhões no período. No acumulado do mês, a corrente de comércio alcançou US$ 16,760 bilhões, soma de US$ 8,847 bilhões em exportações e US$ 7,913 bilhões de importações, gerando saldo positivo de US$ 934 milhões.

A média das exportações da terceira semana chegou a US$ 504,8 milhões, 44,1% abaixo da média de US$ 903,3 milhões até a segunda semana, em razão da diminuição nas vendas das três categorias de produtos. Os semimanufaturados baixaram 49,1%, de US$ 141,5 milhões para US$ 72 milhões, puxados por semimanufaturados de ferro ou aço, celulose, ouro em formas semimanufaturadas, couros e peles, e ferro-liga.

Nos básicos, a redução foi de 43,3%, de US$ 453,7 milhões para US$ 257,3 milhões, por conta de minério de ferro, petróleo em bruto, algodão em bruto, carnes bovina, suína e de frango, minério de cobre. Já nos manufaturados, o recuo foi de 43%, de US$ 308,1 milhões para US$ 175,5 milhões, em razão, principalmente, de aviões, álcoois acíclicos e seus derivados halogenados, óleos combustíveis, máquinas e aparelhos para terraplanagem, óxidos e hidróxidos de alumínio.

Do lado das importações, houve crescimento de 2,2% na mesma comparação – média da terceira semana, de US$ 668 milhões, sobre a média até a segunda semana, de US$ 653,4 milhões. A alta se deve, principalmente, ao aumento nos gastos com combustíveis e lubrificantes, farmacêuticos, cobre e suas obras, bebidas e álcool, além de siderúrgicos.

Análise do mês

Nas exportações, comparadas as médias até a terceira semana de janeiro de 2020 (US$ 737,3 milhões) com a de janeiro de 2019 (US$ 822,0 milhões), houve queda de 10,3%, em razão das diminuições de 21% nas vendas de produtos manufaturados, de US$ 320,1 milhões para US$ 252,8 milhões – por conta de plataforma para extração de petróleo, partes de motores e turbinas para aviação, laminados planos de ferro ou aço, automóveis de passageiros, motores e turbinas para aviação –, e de 14,3% em semimanufaturados, de US$ 131,4 milhões para US$ 112,5 milhões – por conta de celulose, semimanufaturados de ferro/aço, ferro-ligas, ferro fundido, alumínio em bruto.

Por outro lado, cresceram as vendas de produtos básicos (+0,4%), de US$ 370,5 milhões para US$ 371,9 milhões, por conta, principalmente, de algodão em bruto, carnes bovina, suína e de frango, minério de ferro e petróleo em bruto.

Relativamente a dezembro do ano passado, houve diminuição de 14,7% nas exportações, em virtude da retração em produtos básicos (-22,3%), de US$ 478,6 milhões para US$ 371,9 milhões, e manufaturados (-12%), de US$ 287,5 milhões para US$ 252,8 milhões. No entanto, cresceram as exportações de produtos semimanufaturados (+14,2%), de US$ 98,5 milhões para US$ 112,5 milhões.

Importações no mês

Nas importações, a média diária até a terceira semana de janeiro de 2020 (US$ 659,4 milhões), ficou 11,5% abaixo da média de janeiro de 2019 (US$ 744,9 milhões). Nesse comparativo, diminuíram os gastos, principalmente, com aeronaves e peças (-34,6%), adubos e fertilizantes (-31,4%), combustíveis e lubrificantes (-17,9%), cereais e produtos da indústria da moagem (-16,3%), veículos automóveis e partes (-7,6%).

Na comparação com dezembro de 2019, houve crescimento de 10,3%, pelos aumentos em farmacêuticos (+41,4%), equipamentos eletroeletrônicos (+30,6%), plásticos e obras (+25,5%), equipamentos mecânicos (+23,5%), químicos orgânicos e inorgânicos (+13,2%).

RESULTADOS GERAIS

Na terceira semana de janeiro de 2020, a balança comercial registrou déficit de US$ 816 milhões e corrente de comércio de US$ 5,864 bilhões, resultado de exportações no valor de US$ 2,524 bilhões e importações de US$ 3,340 bilhões. No mês, as exportações somam US$ 8,847 bilhões e as importações, US$ 7,913 bilhões, com saldo positivo de US$ 934 milhões e corrente de comércio de US$ 16,760 bilhões.

ANÁLISE DA SEMANA

A média das exportações da 3ª semana chegou a US$ 504,8 milhões, 44,1% abaixo da média de US$ 903,3 milhões até a 2ª semana, em razão da diminuição nas exportações das três categorias de produtos: semimanufaturados (-49,1%, de US$ 141,5 milhões para US$ 72,0 milhões, em razão de semimanufaturados de ferro ou aço, celulose, ouro em formas semimanufaturadas, couros e peles, ferro-ligas); básicos (-43,3%, de US$ 453,7 milhões para US$ 257,3 milhões, por conta de minério de ferro, petróleo em bruto, algodão em bruto, carnes bovina, suína e de frango, minério de cobre) e manufaturados (-43,0%, de US$ 308,1 milhões para US$ 175,5 milhões, em razão, principalmente, de aviões, álcoois acíclicos e seus derivados halogenados, óleos combustíveis, máquinas e aparelhos para terraplanagem, óxidos e hidróxidos de alumínio).

Do lado das importações, apontou-se crescimento de 2,2%, sobre igual período comparativo (média da 3ª semana, US$ 668,0 milhões sobre média até a 2ª semana, US$ 653,4 milhões), explicado, principalmente, pelo aumento nos gastos com combustíveis e lubrificantes, farmacêuticos, cobre e suas obras, bebidas e álcool, siderúrgicos.

ANÁLISE DO MÊS

Nas exportações, comparadas as médias até a 3ª semana de janeiro/2020 (US$ 737,3 milhões) com a de janeiro/2019 (US$ 822,0 milhões), houve queda de 10,3%, em razão da diminuição nas vendas de produtos manufaturados (-21,0%, de US$ 320,1 milhões para US$ 252,8 milhões, por conta de plataforma para extração de petróleo, partes de motores e turbinas para aviação, laminados planos de ferro ou aço, automóveis de passageiros, motores e turbinas para aviação) e semimanufaturados (-14,3%, de US$ 131,4 milhões para US$ 112,5 milhões, por conta de celulose, semimanufaturados de ferro/aço, ferro-ligas, ferro fundido, alumínio em bruto). Por outro lado, cresceram as vendas de produtos básicos (+0,4%, de US$ 370,5 milhões para US$ 371,9 milhões, por conta, principalmente, de algodão em bruto, carnes bovina, suína e de frango, minério de ferro, petróleo em bruto). Relativamente a dezembro/2019, houve diminuição de 14,7%, em virtude da retração nas vendas de produtos básicos (-22,3%, de US$ 478,6 milhões para US$ 371,9 milhões) e manufaturados (-12,0%, de US$ 287,5 milhões para US$ 252,8 milhões), enquanto cresceram as exportações de produtos semimanufaturados (+14,2%, de US$ 98,5 milhões para US$ 112,5 milhões)

Nas importações, a média diária até a 3ª semana de janeiro/2020, de US$ 659,4 milhões, ficou 11,5% abaixo da média de janeiro/2019 (US$ 744,9 milhões). Nesse comparativo, diminuíram os gastos, principalmente, com aeronaves e peças (-34,6%), adubos e fertilizantes (-31,4%), combustíveis e lubrificantes (-17,9%), cereais e produtos da indústria da moagem (-16,3%), veículos automóveis e partes (-7,6%). Ante dezembro/2019, houve crescimento de 10,3%, pelos aumentos em farmacêuticos (+41,4%), equipamentos eletroeletrônicos (+30,6%), plásticos e obras (+25,5%), equipamentos mecânicos (+23,5%), químicos orgânicos e inorgânicos (+13,2%).

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LGCJ.: