US ECONOMICS

VENEZUELA

U.S. Department of State. JULY 5, 2019. Venezuela’s Independence Day. STATEMENT. MICHAEL R. POMPEO, SECRETARY OF STATE

On behalf of the people of the United States of America, I congratulate interim President Juan Guaido, the National Assembly, and the people of Venezuela as you celebrate the anniversary of your independence.

Once again, the Venezuelan people are besieged by dictatorship, undesired foreign presence, and profiteers.  As in the time of Bolivar, Venezuela’s path to democracy is not easy, but you inspire the world with the strength of your voices and tremendous courage.  We are with you in your struggle to reclaim your democratic self-governance and free it from those who have betrayed, oppressed, and robbed the Venezuelan people of the wealth of your great nation.

The United States is unwavering in our commitment to realizing the restoration of your democratic future and the establishment of a government chosen by the Venezuelan people through free and fair elections.  You will have our support until then — and beyond as your recovery begins.

U.S. Department of State. 07/05/2019. UN Human Rights Report Documents Maduro Regime’s Human Rights Abuses

The United States remains deeply concerned by the gross human rights abuses and violations detailed in the UN Human Rights report.  This report on Venezuela illustrates the depth of the despair and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela.  It confirms that Nicolás Maduro and his thugs are committing gross violations of the human rights of the Venezuelan people and depriving them of their basic rights and freedoms through systemic repression, torture, and intimidation.

One of the most unsettling statistics is that the former Maduro regime’s Special Action Forces killed at least 5,287 people in 2018 and, at minimum, another 1,569 by mid-May, 2019.

This report follows the alleged torture and killing of Capitán de Corbeta Rafael Acosta Arévalo, a Venezuelan Naval Officer, who died while in the custody of Maduro’s thugs and their Cuban minders.  We renew our deepest condolences to his family and loved ones.

No dictatorship lasts forever.  Venezuela will soon be free, and those responsible for abuses and violations of human rights in Venezuela will be held accountable. The international community should condemn the illegitimate Maduro regime and stand together to fight against its willful disregard for human rights and impunity.

We appeal to the countries that have not yet formally recognized Interim President Guaido to do so as soon as possible, and withdraw any lingering support for the former Maduro regime’s de facto hold on power.

MONETARY POLICY

FED. July 5, 2019. Monetary Policy Report

The Federal Reserve Act requires the Federal Reserve Board to submit written reports to Congress containing discussions of "the conduct of monetary policy and economic developments and prospects for the future." This report⁠—called the Monetary Policy Report⁠—is submitted semiannually to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and to the House Committee on Financial Services, along with testimony from the Federal Reserve Board Chair.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/20190705_mprfullreport.pdf

XP Investimentos. PORTAL G1. 05/07/2019Economia dos Estados Unidos está muito bem, diz ex-presidente do Fed. Embora números da economia norte-americana estejam sólidos, integrantes do BC dos EUA já indicaram que devem começar a reduzir as taxas de juros.
Por Luiz Guilherme Gerbelli

O ex-presidente do Federal Reserve (Fed, banco central dos Estados Unidos) Ben Bernanke afirmou nesta sexta-feira (5) que a economia norte-americana está indo “muito bem” e que não há nada de errado com ela, apesar da preocupação dos agentes do mercado de uma possível recessão no futuro.

“A economia (dos Estados Unidos) está indo muito bem, crescendo no seu (patamar) potencial, não tem nada de errado com ela”, afirmou Bernanke, durante evento da XP Investimentos em São Paulo.

Bernanke foi presidente do Fed entre 2006 e 2014. Durante a sua presidência, a economia mundial enfrentou o maior período de recessão desde a Grande Depressão de 1929.

Embora os números da economia dos EUA estejam sólidos, o Fed tem sinalizado que pode iniciar um ciclo de redução das taxas de juros - seria o primeiro em uma década. O temor é de que os EUA possam enfrentar uma recessão no futuro. A próxima reunião do BC norte-americano está marcada para o fim deste mês.

O mercado observa os passos do Fed porque o comportamento dos juros nos EUA tem potencial para movimentar recursos aplicados em outras praças, sobretudo das economias emergentes, como é o caso do Brasil.

Trump e Fed

O ex-presidente do Fed também disse que hoje o Banco Central recebe mais pressão da Casa Branca do que no passado. “E isso é não uma coisa boa. Espero que mude”

O presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, tem feito sucessivas críticas ao Fed, cobrando uma queda das taxas dos juros.

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ORGANISMS

GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT

ILO. 04 July 2019. Labour Income Share and Distribution. Just 10 per cent of workers receive nearly half of global pay. An ILO assessment gives the first global estimates of the distribution of labour income, and shows that pay inequality remains pervasive in the world of work. The findings are drawn from a new database which includes national, regional and global data.

GENEVA (ILO News) – Ten per cent of workers receive 48.9 per cent of total global pay, while the lowest-paid 50 per cent of workers receive just 6.4 per cent, a new ILO dataset reveals.

What’s more, the lowest 20 per cent of income earners – around 650 million workers – earn less than 1 per cent of global labour income, a figure that has hardly changed in 13 years.

The new dataset shows that overall global labour income inequality has fallen since 2004. However, this is not due to reductions in inequality within countries – at the national level, pay inequality is actually increasing. Rather, it is because of increasing prosperity in large emerging economies, namely China and India. Overall, the findings say, income inequality remains pervasive in the world of work.

The Labour Income Share and Distribution dataset , developed by the ILO Department of Statistics, contains data from 189 countries and is drawn from the world’s largest collection of harmonized labour force survey data. It offers two new indicators for major trends in the world of work, at national, regional and global levels. One provides the first internationally comparable figures of the share of GDP that goes to workers – rather than capital – through wages and earnings. The second looks at how labour income is distributed.

The Key Findings  show that, globally, the share of national income going to workers is falling, from 53.7 per cent in 2004 to 51.4 per cent in 2017.

“The data show that in relative terms, increases in the top labour incomes are associated with losses for everyone else, with both middle class and lower-income workers seeing their share of income decline."

Steven Kapsos, Head of the ILO’s Data Production and Analysis Unit

Looking at the average pay distribution across countries, it finds that the share going to the middle class (the middle 60 per cent of workers) declined between 2004 and 2017, from 44.8 per cent to 43 per cent. At the same time, the share earned by the top 20 per cent of earners increased, from 51.3 per cent to 53.5 per cent. Countries where these top earners saw their share of national pay rise by at least one percentage point include Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Pakistan, the United Kingdom and the United States.

“The data show that in relative terms, increases in the top labour incomes are associated with losses for everyone else, with both middle class and lower-income workers seeing their share of income decline,” said Steven Kapsos, Head of the ILO’s Data Production and Analysis Unit. “However, when the labour income shares of the middle or lower income workers increase, the gains tend to be widespread, favouring everyone except the top earners.”

Poorer countries tend to have much higher levels of pay inequality, something that exacerbates the hardships of vulnerable populations. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the bottom 50 per cent of workers earn only 3.3 per cent of labour income, compared to the European Union, where the same group receives 22.9 per cent of the total income paid to workers.

Roger Gomis, Economist in the ILO Department of Statistics, said: “The majority of the global workforce endures strikingly low pay and for many having a job does not mean having enough to live on. The average pay of the bottom half of the world’s workers is just 198 dollars per month and the poorest 10 per cent would need to work more than three centuries to earn the same as the richest 10 per cent do in one year.”

The release of the new dataset follows a recommendation in the report of the ILO Global Commission on the Future of Work , which highlighted the need for new indicators to more accurately track progress on well-being, environmental sustainability, equality and a human-centred development agenda. The new dataset will also be used to monitor progress towards the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals  (SDGs).

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_712234/lang--en/index.htm

ARGENTINA

IMF. July 5, 2019. IMF Acting Managing Director Statement on Argentina 

Mr. David Lipton, the International Monetary Fund’s Acting Managing Director issued the following statement today on Argentina:

“I am pleased to announce that IMF staff and the Argentine authorities reached an agreement on the fourth review of the economic program supported by the Stand-By Arrangement. Subject to the approval of the Executive Board, Argentina would have access to about US$ 5.4 billion (SDR 3.9 billion).

“I commend the Argentine authorities on their continued efforts and steadfast implementation of their economic policy program. The authorities completed all their fiscal, monetary and the social expenditure targets under the IMF-backed program in the context of this review.

“Argentina’s economic policies are yielding results. Financial markets stabilized in May and June. Inflation – while still at high levels – is expected to continue to fall in the coming months. The fiscal and external positions continue to improve. There are also signs that the economy is improving in the second quarter.

“I fully support Argentina’s efforts to bolster confidence, lay the foundation for sustainable growth and protect the most vulnerable. Steadfast implementation of the commitments and policies underlying the authorities’ IMF-backed program will be critical for continued progress. I look forward to discussing this review with the IMF’s Executive Board on July 12.”

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Mr. Roberto Cardarelli visited Argentina during May 11–22, 2019 to conduct discussions on the fourth review of Argentina’s IMF-supported program under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Talks continued in Washington DC after the end of the mission. During its visit to Buenos Aires, the mission met with the Minister of the Economy Nicolas Dujovne, the Governor of the Central Bank Guido Sandleris, as well as other government officials and members of the private sector and trade union representatives.

BRICS

MRE. AIG. NOTA-177. 05 de Julho de 2019. Comunicado Conjunto dos Vice-Ministros e Enviados Especiais do BRICS para o Oriente Médio e o Norte da África – Brasília, 5 de julho de 2019

1. The BRICS Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) met on 5 July 2019 in Brasília, Brazil, to exchange views on the current situation in the Middle East and North African regions.

2. They expressed concern over continued conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, which undermine stability and security, provide fertile ground for terrorist and extremist activities and result in internally displaced persons (IDPs) and large movements of refugees and migrants. They agreed that the conflicts in the region should be addressed both through political mechanisms that include dialogue and negotiations and also through a prospect of social development and prosperity for the peoples living in the conflicted areas. They also opposed illegal use of force or interference by external powers in the region.

3. The Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys reaffirmed their commitment to the basic principle that international peace and security should be achieved and sustained solely in accordance with, and in full respect of, international law, including the UN Charter and the role of the UN Security Council. They stressed the need to stand for multilateralism and oppose unilateralism and uphold the international order and international system with the purposes and principles enshrined in the UN Charter with the aim of promoting peace, stability and development in the MENA region. Underlying their deliberations was the conviction that lasting peace could only be achieved with due respect for the independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty of each of the countries of the region.

4. The Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys agreed that in each of the countries in the region, citizens have legitimate aspirations to enjoy full civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights and fundamental freedoms.

5. The Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys strongly condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations from all quarters and in the name of any cause. They reiterated their countries’ commitment to supporting inter-BRICS and other evolving multilateral efforts under UN auspices in countering the global threat of terrorism. They stressed that the fight against terrorism, including counter-terrorism measures, must be conducted in accordance with international law, including the Charter of the United Nations and relevant UNSC Resolutions and opposing double standards. They called for an expedited adoption of the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism in the UN General Assembly.

6. The BRICS Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys, regarding the situation in the Syrian Arab Republic, reaffirmed their strong commitment to the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the country. They expressed their conviction that there can be no military solution to the Syrian conflict. They also reaffirmed their commitment to advancing a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned, UN-facilitated political process in line with the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254 (2015), which is to culminate in constitutional reform and free and fair elections. They expressed their support to the creation as soon as possible of the Constitutional Committee, in accordance with decisions of the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi and welcomed in this regard the efforts of the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General for Syria, Mr. Geir Pedersen. While welcoming the Memorandum on stabilization of the situation in the Idlib de-escalation area, they expressed deep concern with the escalation of violence in the region, continued attacks of the terrorist groups and called on all parties to fully implement the Memorandum on Idlib, including a sustainable ceasefire regime and allowing for unhindered humanitarian aid. They reaffirmed the international obligations to fight terrorism in all its forms and highlighted the importance of unity in the fight against terrorist organizations in Syria as designated by the UN Security Council. They emphasized the fundamental importance for post-conflict reconstruction and rehabilitation of Syria: such a commitment will build conditions for the safe and voluntary return of refugees as well as internally displaced persons and will provide ground for achieving a sustainable and long-lasting peace. They also expressed concern with vulnerable populations, especially the religious minorities.

7. The Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys expressed their serious concern about the political, humanitarian and security situation in Libya. They urged all parties to immediately cease all military action to avoid an escalation of violence and to engage with the Special Representative of the UN's Secretary General, Ghassan Salamé, the AU High Level Committee on Libya and relevant international and regional stakeholders, to ensure a peaceful dialogue and a political solution to the conflict through a Libyan-led and Libyan-owned process in pursuance of the Libyan Political Agreement and the UN Action Plan for Libya. They reaffirmed their conviction that the absence of a political commitment undermines the security and stability of the neighboring countries, leading to terrorism and transnational crime in the region. They expressed their support for the sovereignty, independence and territorial unity of Libya and stressed the critical importance of convening the Libyan national conference at the earliest possible opportunity, in order to promote national reconciliation and draw up a road map for Libya’s political transition and subsequent elections.

8. The BRICS Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys reaffirmed their full support for efforts made by the Iraqi Government towards national reconstruction and development. They acknowledged the importance of stability in Iraq for regional and international security. They further condemned in the strongest possible terms the heinous and inhumane acts of violence perpetrated by terrorist and extremist groups, such as the self-styled ISIL, in the territory of Iraq and reiterated the need for strong international support to the Iraqi Government and people in their relentless efforts to fight against terrorism, to revitalise their economy and to implement reconstruction and development projects.

9. The Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys reaffirmed their grave concern about the ongoing conflict and consequent humanitarian crisis in the Yemen Republic and called on the parties to facilitate the rapid, safe and unhindered access to humanitarian personnel and supplies across the country. They recognised that the Yemeni conflict has a significant impact on the security and stability of the region. They welcomed the Stockholm Agreement and the establishment of the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) through UNSC Resolution 2452 (2019) and reiterated their support for the efforts being made by the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, towards a peaceful resolution to the conflict. They expressed their concern about the delay in the full implementation of the Stockholm Agreement and urged all parties to refrain from measures that lead to ceasefire breaches and to an escalation of violence.

10. The Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys were unanimous in their resolve that the conflicts elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa should not be used as pretext to delay resolution of the long-standing Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys, guided by the international legal framework previously in place, such as the relevant UN resolutions, the Madrid principles and the Arab Peace Initiative, reiterated that the two-state solution will enable Israelis and Palestinians to live side by side, in peace and security. In this regard, they expressed, furthermore, the need for new and creative diplomatic efforts to achieving a just and comprehensive settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, in order to achieve peace and stability in the Middle East.

11. The Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys expressed their serious concern about the ongoing crisis in the Gulf region, including one-sided actions. They reaffirmed their support for the resolution of the existing disagreements through negotiations and diplomatic engagement. They stressed the need for promoting a positive, constructive agenda in that part of the world, in which all countries of the region jointly respond to common threats and challenges.

12. Regarding the Republic of the Sudan, the Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys acknowledged the Sudanese people’s strong aspiration for social and political reform and the pursuit of a better life, and highlighted the importance of stability for peace in Sudan and the neighbouring countries. They emphasized the importance of the principle of non-interference and called on the Sudanese stakeholders to work together in good faith to develop an inclusive and consensual solution for political transition, which contemplates the swift implementation of a civilian government. They, furthermore, expressed their serious concern of the recent episodes of violence in the country and called upon all the parties to preserve peace and nurture national dialogue. The Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys indicated their support for the role of the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), in overcoming the current crisis. In this regard, they took note of the power sharing agreement reached on 4 July 2019 between the Military Council and the opposition coalition to establish a sovereign council to be run on rotation during a 3-year transition period until elections, as well as the launch of a transparent and independent investigation into the violence that began on 3 June 2019, and expressed their hope that it will lead to the sustainable stabilization of the situation in the country.

13. The Deputy Ministers/Special Envoys took note of the recent political developments in Algeria. They expressed their hope that the ensuing transition would culminate in a social compact that addresses Algeria’s socio-economic and political aspirations.

14. The participants committed themselves to convene again at the level of Deputy Foreign Ministers/Special Envoys of BRICS countries in Russia during its rotating Chairship in BRICS in 2020. They also agreed on the advisability of holding regular consultations on the Middle East and North Africa at various venues, including the UN. They confirmed their support for the hosting of informal meetings of their representatives when required.

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ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRAZIL ECONOMICS

INFLAÇÃO

FGV. IBRE. 05/07/19. Índices Gerais de Preços. IPC-C1. Inflação para famílias com renda até 2,5 salários mínimos recua em junho

O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor -Classe 1 (IPC-C1) de junho caiu 0,07%, ficando 0,33 ponto percentual (p.p.) abaixo de maio quando o índice registrou taxa de 0,26%. Com este resultado, o indicador acumula alta de 2,72% no ano e 3,85% nos últimos 12 meses.

Em junho o IPC-BR variou -0,02%. A taxa do indicador nos últimos 12 meses ficou em 3,73%, nível abaixo do registrado pelo IPC-C1.

Nesta apuração, quatro das oito classes de despesa componentes do índice registraram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação: Habitação (0,79% para -0,24%), Transportes (0,28% para -0,38%), Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,75% para 0,31%) e Despesas Diversas (0,08% para -0,23%). Nestas classes de despesa, vale destacar o comportamento dos itens: tarifa de eletricidade residencial (2,60% para -2,30%), gasolina (1,69% para -2,67%), medicamentos em geral (1,63% para -0,01%) e alimentos para animais domésticos (0,16% para -1,36%).

Em contrapartida, os grupos Educação, Leitura e Recreação (0,03% para 0,78%), Alimentação (-0,26% para -0,16%), Vestuário (0,13% para 0,60%) e Comunicação (-0,12% para 0,07%) apresentaram avanço em suas taxas de variação. Nestas classes de despesa, vale citar os itens: passagem aérea (-7,17% para 22,85%), hortaliças e legumes (-3,91% para -0,30%), calçados (-0,05% para 0,58%) e pacotes de telefonia fixa e internet (-0,70% para 0,46%).

DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/navegacao-superior/noticias/noticias-139.htm

ENERGIA

OPEP. REUTERS. 5 DE JULHO DE 2019. Produção da Opep atinge patamar mais baixo em cinco anos após sanções de Trump
Por Alex Lawler

LONDRES (Reuters) - A produção de petróleo da Opep caiu para uma nova baixa de cinco anos em junho, já que o aumento na oferta não compensou perdas no Irã e na Venezuela devido a sanções dos Estados Unidos e outras paralisações em outros locais do grupo, segundo uma pesquisa da Reuters.

A Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo, com 14 membros, bombeou 29,6 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) no mês passado, mostrou a pesquisa, com queda de 170 mil bpd em relação ao resultado revisado de maio e se tornando a menor produção da Opep desde 2014, mostrou a pesquisa.

A pesquisa da Reuters sugere que, embora a Arábia Saudita esteja elevando a produção devido à pressão do presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, para reduzir os preços, o reino ainda está bombeando voluntariamente menos do que um acordo de oferta liderado pela Opep permite. A Opep renovou o pacto de oferta em reuniões nesta semana.

“A decisão da Opep e aliados, no início da semana, de estender seus cortes de produção não fez nada para mudar isso”, disse Carsten Fritsch, analista do Commerzbank, sobre a queda nos preços desta semana.

“Uma série de dados econômicos decepcionantes dos Estados Unidos, China e Europa provocou novas preocupações sobre a demanda”.

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LGCJ.: