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October 13, 2017

CANADA ECONOMICS



MERCOSUR-CANADA



REUTERS. OCTOBER 13, 2017. Canada set to open Mercosur trade talks in December: sources
Lisandra Paraguassu

BRASILIA (Reuters) - Canada and the South American trade bloc Mercosur will announce in December the opening of negotiations for a free-trade deal during the World Trade Organization’s annual meeting in Argentina, two sources told Reuters this week.

The governments of all four full members of Mercosur - Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay - have approved entering into talks, said the sources, who requested anonymity as the details of the deliberations are private.

In Canada, the talks still need to be approved by the cabinet of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, though that step is considered a formality, one of the sources added.

Consulted by Reuters, a spokesman for Canadian Minister of International Trade Francois-Philippe Champagne said that the country “reaffirms that there exists an opportunity for an agreement with the Mercosur and that we’re going to continue with exploratory conversations.”

Brazil’s foreign ministry, which negotiates trade talks for the government, did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

Brazilian Foreign Minister Aloysio Nunes met with Champagne at a WTO meeting in Morocco this week. After the meeting, the Brazilian foreign ministry issued a statement saying it “recognized there exists strong potential for the development of a more ambitious commercial relationship.”

Trade between Mercosur in Canada is currently small, though there are significant areas for potential growth, the sources said. According to the Brazilian government, trade in 2016 between the parties was $5.88 billion, about a tenth the size of trade between Mercosur and the United States.

The Brazilian government has identified opportunities in the industrial sector, as well as in agriculture where significantly different climates mean complimentary rather than competing exports, one of the sources added.

Reporting by Lisandra Paraguassu; Writing by Gram Slattery; Editing by Marguerita Choy



NAFTA



The Globe and Mail. Reuters. 13 Oct 2017. With reports from Adrian Morrow in Washington and Campbell Clark in Mexico City and from Canada, Mexico vow to remain at NAFTA negotiating table. Trudeau’s first official visit to meet with Pena Nieto comes after Trump talked of killing agreement
LAURA STONE, MEXICO CITY
ROBERT FIFE, OTTAWA

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Mexican counterpart said they won’t abandon NAFTA negotiations because of hardline bargaining positions taken by the United States, but behind the scenes Canadian officials said they are growing increasingly doubtful that a deal can be struck.
Mr. Trudeau and President Enrique Pena Nieto were asked Thursday at a press conference about the Trump administration’s proposal that a sunset clause be included in a renegotiated NAFTA – a provision that would automatically terminate the deal in five years unless the U.S., Canada and Mexico agreed to keep it in place. That demand comes amid escalating protectionist rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump, who threatened Wednesday to scrap the agreement and pursue bilateral talks with Mexico or Canada.
“We will not be walking away from the table based on proposals put forward,” Mr. Trudeau said, adding he is committed to a “winwin-win” deal. “We will discuss those proposals. We will counter those proposals, and we will take seriously these negotiations.”
Mr. Pena Nieto said he did “tackle” the topic of bilateral agreements with Mr. Trudeau, but reiterated his desire for an updated NAFTA.
Both leaders said they remain dedicated to a modern NAFTA agreement. But Mr. Pena Nieto also said he wouldn’t be “held hostage” by the talks. »
“It cannot be good for just one country, and we cannot be held hostage from a bad situation,” he said.
Mexico is working on plans that include tariff measures and finding substitute markets in case NAFTA talks are unsatisfactory, Finance Secretary Jose Antonio Meade said on Thursday.
The Prime Minister’s first official visit to Mexico, where he was celebrated in a lavish welcoming ceremony at the National Palace, comes after U.S. President Donald Trump told Mr. Trudeau on Wednesday in a face-to-face meeting at the White House that he might kill NAFTA and pursue a separate trade deal with either Canada or Mexico.
Canadian officials are increasingly pessimistic that a revamped North American free-trade agreement is possible despite Mr. Trudeau’s best efforts to persuade Mr. Trump that the 23-year-old trilateral trade deal is in America’s economic interests.
A high-level Canadian source said Mr. Trudeau’s intervention with Mr. Trump in the Oval Office on Wednesday was positive and that he did nothing to “damage personal relations” with the mercurial President.
But the source said there were no signals from Mr. Trump that he is backing off his strong protectionist stand, which has been amplified at the NAFTA bargaining table by hardline demands from U.S. negotiators, with tough U.S. content requirements for cars and trucks expected as early as Friday.
As the fourth round of talks continues in Arlington, Va., the Trump administration demanded a sunset clause be included in a renegotiated NAFTA.
“The negotiations so far, with the exception of the easy stuff, are not going well,” said the source, who was not authorized to speak on the record. “They are not going well because you are negotiating a free-trade agreement with a protectionist Donald Trump. It is the most protectionist administration since the early 1930s.”
Although it is still too early to determine, the source said it may be that Canada will end up pursuing bilateral negotiations with the United States and leave Mexico to fend for itself.
One Canadian government source said Mr. Trudeau’s Wednesday meeting with the U.S. House ways and means committee was in part a safety measure to get legislators on side if Mr. Trump attempts to kill NAFTA. If the President tried to withdraw the United States from the pact, Congress would have to pass legislation to roll back its provisions. This could allow legislators significant power in restraining the White House.
U.S. negotiators formally tabled the sunset clause proposal late on Wednesday during NAFTA talks in a Washington-area hotel, said a source with knowledge of the closed-door discussions, speaking on condition of anonymity to reveal confidential details.
U.S. officials have been informally floating such a proposal for months. At a September forum organized by news website Politico, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said a sunset clause would allow the countries to evaluate whether the deal was working and kill it if it wasn’t.
Canadian and Mexican officials have publicly disparaged the idea, which they argue would make it hard for companies to make long-term investments because they could not be guaranteed that their access to other NAFTA markets would remain intact. It could also force the three countries to go through another contentious NAFTA renegotiation five years from now.
Mr. Meade said on Thursday that the country is working on plans that include tariff measures and finding substitute markets in case NAFTA talks are unsatisfactory.
Experts say Mr. Trudeau is facing increased pressure from Mexico to follow the country’s hard line on keeping NAFTA a threeway deal.
Former Mexican ambassador to Canada Francisco Suarez said that the Mexican government will want to see Mr. Trudeau “clarify” that Canada is committed to North America, and he won’t drop the trilateral NAFTA to strike a bilateral trade deal with the United States.
“There’s this ambiguity. I hope that’s clarified,” said Mr. Suarez, who was Mr. Pena Nieto’s envoy to Canada from 2013 to 2016. “I think that’s something the President himself will say: I think it’s important that we clarify that.”
The Mexican government will also be looking for Canada to join Mexico in its warning to Mr. Trump that if he triggers the sixmonth notice period for withdrawal from NAFTA, the talks will stop. Mexico has said it won’t negotiate under those conditions, but Mr. Trudeau has not.
“On the basic approach, we should be taking the same position. Because Mr. Trump will try to split us.”

The Globe and Mail. 13 Oct 2017. Forget TPP until NAFTA deal is done: auto groups. Autos: Trudeau government says it is able to manage more than one trade negotiation
GREG KEENAN
STEVEN CHASE

Two major auto-industry groups in Canada are urging the federal government to hold off negotiating a massive pan-Pacific trade deal while the country is in the midst of trying to renegotiate the North American free-trade agreement with the United States and Mexico.
Some of the automotive sections of the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal will harm Canada’s auto-parts makers and the Canadian units of the Detroit Three auto makers, groups representing those companies say.
Agreement on the TPP, which included Canada, the United States, Mexico, Japan, Chile and seven other countries, was reached in 2015, but the Americans withdrew last January in one of President Donald Trump’s first acts after being sworn in.
The remaining 11 countries are considering setting up a new round of negotiations, although part of the attraction of being in the deal for some of the countries was that it would have given them duty-free access to the U.S. market.
The possibility of resurrecting the TPP comes amid fears that NAFTA will fall apart as Mr. Trump reiterates his long-standing criticism that the deal has been bad for Americans.
“The No. 1 priority should be NAFTA,” said Mark Nantais, president of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association, which represents the Detroit Three auto makers in Canada. “We should be negotiating these [other] agreements as a NAFTA bloc because of the high integration of our industry.”
The level of content in vehicles necessary for duty-free shipment was substantially lower under the TPP than in NAFTA and thus is “very negative for Canadian auto parts,” said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association of Canada.
NAFTA, which is being renegotiated with talks in their fourth session near Washington this week, requires that vehicles contain 62.5 per cent North American content in order to qualify for duty-free shipment. U.S. negotiators are expected to demand that that number be raised to 85 per cent in a new NAFTA – a demand that could be formally made as soon as Friday.
For some components, the TPP requirement was as low as 30-per-cent content, Mr. Volpe said, and that includes content from some low-cost Asian countries.
“It not only means that you have to do less to qualify [for duty-free treatment], you can do it in Vietnam,” he said.
The Trudeau government is defending the fact it’s actively considering new free-trade talks on a pan-Pacific deal even while renegotiating NAFTA.
Trade Minister François-Philippe Champagne’s office says the government has the capacity to manage more than one big trade negotiation.
Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland is overseeing NAFTA talks while Mr. Champagne handles other trade matters.
“We have a strong and deep bench of officials, respected and admired the world over,” said Joseph Pickerill, spokesman for Mr. Champagne.
“The discussions now on whether and how to proceed … are being led by an entirely different team responsible for Asian trade engagement, so there isn’t a draw down on resources.”
Critics say, however, that NAFTA talks and TPP negotiations could conflict with each other, particularly on thorny matters such as the regional content rules for autos.
No decision has been made yet to embark on new TPP talks, but Mr. Pickerill said it’s important Canada be at the TPP table.
A TPP deal would likely mean greater access to the historically sheltered Japanese market.
“Now more than ever, diversification is important and our priority is to be ambitious and seize the opportunities while being mindful of the sequencing, timing and approach to any new markets in such a way as to maximize the opportunities for middle-class Canadians across the board,” Mr. Pickerill said.
The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association of Canada supports a new TPP agreement, president David Worts said.
“We need a trade agreement with Japan to create a level playing field for us with [South] Korea and with Europe,” he said.
The Canada-South Korea and Canada-EU agreements eliminate the 6.1-per-cent duty Canada levies on vehicles imported into this country from outside NAFTA.
Without a TPP or a Canada-Japan bilateral trade agreement, Japan-based auto makers still face that tariff even though two of them operate assembly plants in Canada and have made capital investments of billions of dollars since the plants were opened in the 1980s.

The Globe and Mail. 13 Oct 2017. Canadian business needs a NAFTA ‘Plan B’
RUSS CRAWFORD
ANGELOS XILINAS

The fourth round of NAFTA negotiations opened this week with more questions than answers. While the teams announced a new North American free-trade agreement competition chapter, the U.S. President again used a number of events and vehicles to talk about the need to terminate the deal. The Prime Minister, for his part, acknowledged that the outcome was unpredictable. That said, other signals from the Trump administration and Congress would point to support for a modernized NAFTA.
With so many conflicting messages about the state of the negotiations, Canadian business leaders are getting increasingly nervous about the outcome. Despite announcements in recent weeks on new chapters around competition, supporting trade opportunities for small and medium-sized businesses (SME), and developments regarding core procedural issues such as automatic declarations of origin, the absence of any formal proposals to amend the deal’s most contentious issues is raising growing concerns.
Of particular concern is the emergence of new proposals from the United States that Canada and Mexico are unlikely to accept, and that could cause significant issues for businesses on all sides of the borders. The United States has taken a harsher tone on rules of origin; proposed a sunset clause that would terminate the agreement after five years, unless all countries agreed to extend; and suggested new seasonal restrictions on imports of agricultural goods.
As well, some in the trade community believe that the Trump administration has not submitted text on key contentious areas because it plans to submit a letter withdrawing the United States from NAFTA. While difficult to believe that a deal won’t be struck that works for all three countries, it is incumbent on Canadian business leaders to start considering their options and plan for various contingencies.
One of the biggest risks to business in these negotiations is not a renewed NAFTA with less favourable terms, but a dissolution of the agreement without a replacement – or a new agreement that expires every five years. Businesses need to know the rules of the game are going to remain consistent and predictable. The lack of a trade agreement or one that can be rewritten every five years could make it impossible to secure needed financing to make the investments necessary to keep their companies sustainable and competitive.
Uncertainty regarding the application of NAFTA provisions will affect smaller enterprises the most. SMEs likely won’t have the resources or infrastructure necessary to adapt to a world of unpredictable rule changes.
On the positive side, the trade representatives from all three countries know that continuing predictability and clarity in the agreement is of utmost importance. What is not clear is whether they will be able to be in a position to finalize a deal.
Given this environment, Canadian business leaders need a “Plan B” to be ready for a wide range of outcomes to the current trade and customs rules.
A U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA: As there is a six-month phase-out period from the time written notice is provided, the impact of a withdrawal will not be immediate. After the sixmonth period, businesses may be able to apply the provisions of the Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement, which was superseded when NAFTA came into force. Further, if the United States were to withdraw from NAFTA, the agreement would still apply between Mexico and Canada. In all cases, businesses need to examine their supply chains and what new duties could be imposed, understand the flowthrough impact on prices and their competitive position in the marketplace. They also need to understand if there will be impacts on their ability to send people to the United States to work with suppliers and provide after-sales service to American customers.
Changes to the NAFTA rules of origin: If changes to the rules of origin make them too onerous and costly to administer, or if preferential rates between the United States and Canada are no longer available, businesses should assess the costs associated with paying duty at the higher most-favoured nation rate. If these costs are prohibitive, businesses need to assess supplychain changes to take advantage of other preferential tariff regimes, assess whether changing the structure of their import transactions can lower the customs value and examine their customs transactions to identify any other potential duty-savings opportunities.
Other preferential tariff regimes: Canada currently has access to preferential tariffs for certain goods under the General Preferential Tariff, the Least Developed Country Tariff, the Commonwealth Caribbean Country Tariff, the Australia Tariff and the New Zealand Tariff. There are also 11 free-trade agreements currently in force (not including NAFTA), as well as other agreements either concluded, in negotiations or in exploratory discussions. These agreements could provide comparable or better trade options.
For example, Canadian companies can look to trade more with the European Community and benefit from preferential rates under CETA, which came into force provisionally on Sept. 21, 2017. Most goods moving between Canada and the 28 European Union countries are now eligible for duty-free treatment. Upon coming into force, CETA eliminated approximately 98 per cent of all tariffs between Canada and the EU, with another 1 per cent to be phased out over a period of up to seven years.
Uncertainty about NAFTA may be the trigger to get Canadian businesses to seriously think about leveraging the country’s ties to international markets to build new supply-chain opportunities and diversify trade.
Russ Crawford is a Tax Partner and NAFTA leader with KPMG in Canada. Angelos Xilinas is a partner, trade and customs, with KPMG in Canada.

THE GLOBE AND MAIL. TRADE. OCTOBER 13, 2017. No more NAFTA: How Canada could thrive without the trade pact
BARRIE MCKENNA, OTTAWA

For months now, the prospect of the United States pulling out of NAFTA has seemed like a bad dream.

President Donald Trump made the menace much more real this week, warning Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the White House that the deal may be "terminated" if the U.S. doesn't get what it wants.

This is the nightmare scenario long feared by many Canadians after almost three decades of free trade with our southern neighbour.

Or is it?

Obviously, the end of the North American free-trade agreement – the foundation of Canada's relationship with the U.S. and Mexico – is not this country's preferred option. There would be economic pain and dislocation, at least initially. Untold numbers of jobs would be lost and investments delayed or cancelled if the world no longer perceived Canada as a gateway to the vast U.S. market. Complex supply chains, particularly in the auto sector, would be disrupted.

But it wouldn't have to be an economic catastrophe. If Canada plays its cards right, the death of NAFTA could become a catalyst for making the Canadian economy stronger, more outward-looking and less tethered to an increasingly unreliable partner.

"If NAFTA were to cease, I don't think it would be a complete disaster. And in some respects, it actually has a silver lining," argues David Emerson, a former lumber executive and federal minister of both foreign affairs and trade.

The troubled NAFTA talks are a "wake-up call" for Canada, says Mr. Emerson, who insists he's speaking for himself and not the numerous corporate boards and advisory groups he sits on. Among other things, he says, Canada should use this time to forge closer ties with China, Japan and other Asian nations, ease the regulatory burden at home and invest heavily in the kind of infrastructure that will make trade easier – all to hedge against the risk of an increasingly protectionist and inward-looking U.S.

"If it isn't Trump, it will be somebody else," Mr. Emerson warns. "There is a strong protectionist, self-serving sentiment that runs deep through the American legislative and regulatory process. Ultimately, we're going to have to diversify our economic linkages in ways that ensure our whole economy is not dangerously vulnerable to those protectionist, Make America Great Again actions."

In fact, Canada may be looking at a decade or more of "antipathy to globalization" in the U.S. that outlasts the Trump administration, according to Gary Hufbauer, a former top U.S. trade and investment official who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. To counter that mood, he says, Canada should stay the course, open its borders wider to trade and investment and pursue free-trade deals in Asia.

"Canada could survive and even thrive [in a post-NAFTA world]," he says.

The reality for companies is that tariffs aren't as important as they were when Canada and the U.S. struck their first free-trade agreement in 1989. Costs related to transportation, logistics, data flows and supply chains are far more important now than duty rates.

Canada's economy would take a hit from the demise of NAFTA, but the impact would be "fairly small in the long run," according to Dan Ciuriak, a former deputy chief economist at Foreign Affairs and International Trade. The shock to Mexico would be larger, but relatively muted for the U.S., says Mr. Ciuriak, who is currently modelling the economic impact of what he calls a "NAFTA requiem" for an upcoming C.D. Howe Institute study.

A lot will depend on how NAFTA comes apart and what replaces it – a reversion to the original Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement (CUSFTA), prevailing World Trade Organization rules and tariff rates or some new arrangement. Mr. Trump mused this week about forging a new bilateral Canada-U.S. deal if NAFTA fails.

"I'd be surprised if teams of Canadian officials were not already gaming out these scenarios," says Roland Paris, a former foreign policy adviser to Mr. Trudeau and a professor of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa.

The CUSFTA remains on the books, and some experts argue it would automatically kick in if the U.S. terminates NAFTA, salvaging at least some preferential access to the U.S. market for Canada.

But Toronto trade lawyer Mark Warner warns that the original free-trade deal could prove to be no better than the deep concessions the Trump administration is seeking in the current NAFTA talks. It could lead to more fractious relations and more trade disputes. "People need to go back and read it," he says.

Then again, Mr. Trump could terminate both agreements, leaving Canada in the same boat as most other countries.

The gap between WTO tariff levels and the generally duty-free NAFTA border has narrowed substantially over the years. Under WTO rules, for example, the U.S. tariff on cars would climb to 2.5 per cent from zero and to 3.5 per cent from zero on many parts.

"People would have to do a lot of number crunching," acknowledges Dennis Darby, president and chief executive of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, which speaks for more than 2,500 companies. "Companies are looking at their competitive advantage on costs all the time."

It's unlikely that manufacturers with substantial investments in Canada would immediately pull up stakes if NAFTA wasn't there. But Mr. Darby says a dark cloud would hang over future investments as companies scramble to figure out if it makes more sense to supply the large U.S. market from plants in Canada or in lower-cost countries such as China or Taiwan.

"Industries will react as they always do: They'll make rational decisions," Mr. Darby explains.

Canada would lose access to NAFTA's dispute-settlement regime – Chapter 19 – as well as the deal's government purchasing rules. But those losses would be mitigated by WTO rules, including access to dispute-settlement panels.

There is also a very real possibility that even if Mr. Trump terminates NAFTA, Congress would balk at passing the necessary legislation to take the U.S. out of the deal. Congress' pivotal role was underscored this week in Washington when Mr. Trudeau met with members of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, which has responsibility for trade.

It's also worth remembering that the Trump era is not entirely unprecedented. Canada has been here before, in the 1980s, when there was another populist in the White House (Ronald Reagan), widespread angst about the overvalued U.S. dollar and rising protectionism.

"It's a very similar environment to the 1980s, and we came out of that with the original free-trade agreement," Mr. Ciuriak points out. "It's not as scary as it seems today if you know the history."

Being highly dependent on the U.S. may have made a lot of sense for Canada for 30 years. But it has left Canada underexposed to the fastest-growing regions of the world, including China and India.

NAFTA also entrenched Canada's historic dependency on the U.S. In 2016, roughly 76 per cent of Canada's merchandise exports went to the U.S. – a slightly larger proportion than in 1990. It is a testament to the fact that loading products on a tractor-trailer and hauling them across the Canada-U.S. border has always seemed easier than tapping distant overseas markets.



Two-way trade totalled more than $1-trillion last year, worth roughly 42 per cent of Canada's GDP.

Whatever happens, Canada would be wise to diversify its trade relationships. The trade deal reached with the European Union will help a lot.

But there is much more Ottawa could do. It could salvage what's left of NAFTA with Mexico. It could also aggressively pursue the Trans-Pacific Partnership with Japan, Australia, Mexico, Malaysia, Vietnam and others – the so-called TPP 11 – or pursue bilateral deals modelled on the deal with the European Union.

With NAFTA gone, Canada could also kick into high gear ongoing trade negotiations with China and India.

"We have to think differently," Mr. Emerson says. "A lot of that is unilateral – we can do that ourselves. A lot is not."

There is another way to diversify Canada's trade. Mr. Ciuriak says Canada could unilaterally remove all of its existing tariffs, declaring itself a free-trade zone. The hit to government revenues would be in the range of $5-billion a year, spread broadly across industries. But it would make Canada a much more attractive destination for investment, according to Mr. Ciuriak.

"We would simply return to a more normal pattern of trade – one that's more economically optimal," he says.

Even in a world of higher tariff walls, Canada will do okay if it maintains its capacity to "play in the knowledge-based economy," Mr. Ciuriak says. That means having a skilled and educated work force and creating an environment that encourages innovation.

The demise of NAFTA may prove to be less of a dead end than an unpredictable trip down a road less travelled.

BLOOMBERG. 13 October 2017. Trudeau and Pena Nieto Pledge Trade Unity as Trump Threatens Nafta
By Nacha Cattan  and Josh Wingrove

  • Trudeau says Canada will counter contentious U.S. proposals
  • Mexican president hosts Canadian prime minister in visit

The leaders of Mexico and Canada presented a united front for trade talks with President Donald Trump, committing to continued trilateral negotiations after U.S. negotiators put forward a contentious proposal for a Nafta “sunset clause.”

Enrique Pena Nieto and Justin Trudeau spoke Thursday night in Mexico City as the fourth round of North American Free Trade Agreement talks continued in Washington. After Trump mused Wednesday about breaking Nafta into bilateral deals, his two counterparts called for the pact to be preserved and modernized and praised each other for aid provided during natural disasters.

“As we move forward with re-negotiations, we will continue to work toward our shared goal of a win-win-win agreement to ensure that the new provisions are fair and beneficial to all three countries involved,” Trudeau said, adding he and Pena Nieto are “confident” the three countries can find a Nafta “framework” to drive economic growth.

The U.S. proposed its sunset clause for Nafta on Wednesday, while so-called rules of origin -- which determine how much of a product must come from Nafta countries to receive the pact’s benefits -- are due for discussion beginning Friday. The rules of origin, particularly for autos, are among the most controversial subjects as Trump aims to repatriate manufacturing jobs from Mexico by rewriting trade rules. The U.S. president has regularly threatened to walk away from the pact.



‘Can’t Be Hostage’

Pena Nieto, who began by thanking Trudeau for his support of September’s earthquake recovery efforts, said the countries are working to boost bilateral ties and to improve Nafta. “Prime Minister Trudeau and myself will continue to work to reach a beneficial and positive upgrading for the three countries,” the Mexican president said, before later appearing to downplay Trump’s threats.

“I would not pay much attention to any statements other than that which happens at the negotiation tables,” Pena Nieto said, adding the talks can make North America a more competitive economic region by including, for instance, e-commerce. The deal “cannot be good for just one country and we can’t be hostage to only one position,” he said.

Trudeau said Canada wouldn’t walk away from the negotiating table based on proposals so far.

“We are pleased to be talking about ways we can improve Nafta,” Trudeau said. “We will discuss those proposals, we will counter those proposals and we will take seriously these negotiations.” He also said the countries “stand firm” in a commitment to implement the Paris Agreement on climate change, from which Trump has withdrawn the U.S.

Fallback Position

Trump would need to clear several hurdles to actually kill Nafta. He’d need to give six months’ notice of withdrawal, having not yet done so, and then proceed with the withdrawal after that point. Observers expect he’d then find himself in a legal and political battle with, among others, the U.S. Congress, which holds sway over trade and would at least need to change or repeal the laws that enact the pact. Powerful industries, such as agriculture, are also pressing to save the deal.

If Trump does reach that point and pulls out, Canada has a fallback that Mexico doesn’t -- the old Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, a bilateral predecessor to Nafta. It too would need to be updated and reimplemented, which would likely spur a separate round of negotiations. Trudeau has steadfastly downplayed the significance of that fallback, saying his preference is to modernize and update Nafta.

The Canadian leader flew to Mexico City Thursday morning directly from Washington, where he got mixed signals from Trump on Nafta. Speaking Wednesday at the White House, Trump said it’s possible that they could reach a deal or that talks could fail. The same day, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross defended some of the core controversial proposals.

Pena Nieto called Nafta “a good mechanism” that is not the “only one” to develop North America, and said Mexico doesn’t want to stake its competitiveness on having low salaries. The current round of talks outside Washington is set to continue through Oct. 17.

Road Ahead


“I think the window’s still very much open” to reach a deal, Robert Holleyman, a former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative under President Barack Obama, said in an interview Thursday before Trudeau and Pena Nieto spoke. His advice to the Mexican and Canadian leaders “would be simply to continue to reaffirm that they too believe Nafta needs to be renegotiated. And all three leaders accept, and have long accepted, that these need to be modernized.”

Trudeau has downplayed the significance of Trump’s threats and has regularly put a positive spin on talks. His government’s strategy continued Thursday in Washington, when Finance Minister Bill Morneau predicted Canada-U.S. trade will endure.

“It’s important not to let the spectacle of a trade negotiation disguise what we’re trying to get to,” Morneau said Thursday during a panel discussion at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington. “There are a huge number of jobs in the three countries that are related to this relationship we have. That is going to continue."

THE GLOBE AND MAIL. OCTOBER 13, 2017. NAFTA. U.S. puts contentious NAFTA auto demands on the table
PETER POWER
GREG KEENAN
ADRIAN MORROW

The U.S. government has put its demand that vehicles contain at least 85 per cent North American content and 50 per cent U.S. content on the table at negotiations on the North American free-trade agreement, auto industry and government sources say.

The tougher requirements than the current deal are a key proposal as the Trump administration seeks to reduce the flow of billions of dollars in investment to Mexico, which has led to the creation of tens of thousands of auto jobs in that country.

Canadian and Mexican officials have said they will fight any U.S. proposal that requires country-specific content.

The current rules require vehicles to have 62.5 per cent North American content to travel duty-free, but the content can come from any of the three countries. There is no rule requiring a specific percentage of parts or components from a single country.

Both aspects of the U.S. plan to force more investment in vehicle assembly and parts into the United States are opposed by major auto makers and the parts industry in all three countries.

American negotiators threw down the proposal first thing Friday morning at the fourth round of NAFTA talks, unfolding at a hotel in a Washington suburb, three sources familiar with the negotiations told The Globe and Mail. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential details of the tense talks.

In addition to the content percentages, the U.S. is also demanding that far more components in autos be added to the tracing list that specifies which auto parts count toward the percentage and which do not, said one source with knowledge of the American demands. The source said the U.S. wanted to ensure such components are "verified" rather than "deemed," a much tougher standard for car companies to meet.

Deemed parts are those not on the tracing list but are "deemed" to be originating in the NAFTA countries.

For example, transmissions that are assembled in North America but have some content that comes from outside the three NAFTA countries can be "rolled up" to qualify as 100 per cent North American. The U.S. proposal on tracing would require that the value of any non-NAFTA parts be subtracted from the final value of the component.

The rules of origin matter is scheduled for three days of discussion, with talks continuing all day Friday and on Sunday and Monday.

This round of NAFTA talks, which lasts until Tuesday, is shaping up to be the toughest and tensest yet. In addition to the rules of origin proposal, the U.S. made another contentious demand Thursday when it tabled a sunset clause that would automatically terminate NAFTA in five years unless all three countries agree to keep it. Such a measure, if inserted into the deal, would set the stage for another NAFTA renegotiation in five years and is staunchly opposed by both Canada and Mexico.

The Americans are expected to table demands this weekend that Canada open up its protected dairy, poultry and egg markets to more U.S. imports. It is also expected to formally demand the abolition of Chapter 19 dispute resolution panels, which settle trade disputes between countries, and the right of countries to opt out of Chapter 11, which allows corporations to sue governments for decisions that hurt their business.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to pull his country out of NAFTA if Canada and Mexico do not agree to major NAFTA changes.

The auto industry in all three countries is certain to fight back against the tough U.S. demands. The industry has argued that the current system set up over the 23 years NAFTA has been in force works well and allows North America to compete with Asia and Europe. Mexico serves as the low-cost assembly area for such labour-intensive parts as wiring harnesses and fabric for automotive seats and is the assembly location for a majority of the small vehicles sold in North America.

Parts and components that go into vehicles assembled in all three countries cross borders several times.

The cost of unwinding the system would be prohibitive if the U.S. proposal becomes the rule, industry officials say.

One industry source said it would be a non-starter.

The source and others have noted that a rule requiring 85 per cent North American content will cause many auto makers to simply opt out of NAFTA and ship vehicles into the U.S. market using the most favoured nation U.S. tariff of 2.5 per cent instead.

An 85-per-cent rule limits auto makers' ability to source products effectively to North America, said another source with intimate knowledge of manufacturing costs. Many of the electronics system used in vehicles are imported from Asia and then installed in vehicles at assembly plants in Canada, Mexico and the United States.

"If the cost of compliance rise above the 2.5 per cent most favoured nation alternative, you'll see more automotive trade that doesn't use the NAFTA preference," said Kristin Dzizcek, director of the industry labour and economics group at the Center for Automotive Research, an industry think-tank located in Ann Arbor, Mich.

Flavio Volpe, President of Canada's Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association, said tougher rules for building cars and trucks – such as a U.S. content requirement – would make life harder for auto companies in all three countries and give their overseas competitors an edge.

"It takes away flexibility, and makes all of North America less competitive against Europe," he said in an interview.

Despite the tough demands, Mr. Volpe downplayed speculation that the talks would unravel. He said it is unlikely that Canada or Mexico would walk away from the negotiating table. Mr. Volpe, who travelled with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Mexico this week, said there was also little chance Canada would throw Mexico under the bus and cut a two-way deal with the U.S.

"There is no appetite to walk away from the talks," he said. "Our interests are still aligned with Mexico's. There is no fissure in the relationship. Canada fully understands how invested Canadian industry is in Mexico and the value of Mexico as a fully-vested partner in NAFTA."

Earlier this week, Mr. Trump speculated at an Oval Office meeting with Mr. Trudeau that he might pull his country out of NAFTA, or do separate deals with Canada and Mexico.

Unifor President Jerry Dias, whose union represents Canadian auto workers, told reporters at NAFTA talks earlier this week that "this thing is going into the toilet."

REUTERS. OCTOBER 13, 2017. U.S. unveils NAFTA autos content proposal, fate of talks unclear
Dave Graham
David Ljunggren

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States on Friday unveiled hotly contested proposals for higher regional autos content in the North American Free Trade Agreement, three sources said, casting further doubt on the chances of reaching a deal to modernize the pact.

Washington made its move a day after insisting that NAFTA contain a sunset clause that could mean the deal expires in five years.

Canada and Mexico, the two other members of the pact, strongly oppose both ideas. A Mexican source with direct knowledge of the talks called the auto content proposal “absurd.”

Sources familiar with the talks say the mood is bad and question whether the negotiations can be wrapped up by the end of the year as planned.

President Donald Trump, who complains that NAFTA has been a disaster for the United States, is threatening to walk away from the deal unless major changes are made.

The U.S. side made its auto proposal during the fourth of seven planned rounds of talks on the treaty. Ensuring that autos need more regional content to qualify for NAFTA tariff-free access is one of the Trump administration’s key demands.

Canada and Mexico say such a move would disrupt the highly integrated continental auto industry.

One of the sources said the United States wants to increase the North American content requirement for trucks, autos and large engines to 85 percent from 62.5 percent. Furthermore, Washington insists 50 percent of content must be U.S.-made.

Trump administration officials say current content rules are too lax and have allowed auto companies to bring in too many cheap parts from China and other low-wage Asian countries. They are also seeking to halt the migration of vehicle production and manufacturing jobs to Mexico from the United States.

Auto industry groups say substantially increasing local content requirements would raise costs, hurt regional competitiveness and cause many companies to forego NAFTA’s benefits and simply pay the 2.5 percent U.S. tariff for imported cars and many parts.

Trump has made no secret that he prefers bilateral trade deals, and skeptics wonder whether the U.S. demands are part of a strategy designed to ensure the current talks fail.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce had listed the U.S. autos demands among a number of “poison pill” proposals that it said would torpedo the talks. {nL4N1ML4JW]

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto on Thursday for talks, and later said Canada would not walk away from the table. Both men said they were committed to a “win-win-win” deal.

Canadian officials say it is too soon to write off the talks. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo are due to meet in Washington on Tuesday to take stock of the negotiations.

Other people briefed on the talks told Reuters that the U.S. autos proposal would require automakers to verify the use of North American steel, aluminum, copper and plastic resins in their vehicles.

A spokeswoman for Lighthizer declined to comment. Canadian and Mexican government officials were not immediately available for comment.

Additional reporting by David Lawder and Ana Isabel Martinez; Editing by Bernadette Baum, Marguerita Choy and Jonathan Oatis

BLOOMBERG. 13 October 2017. U.S. Demands America-Specific Auto Content in Nafta
By Josh Wingrove , Eric Martin , and Andrew Mayeda

The U.S. has delivered one of its most high-profile Nafta demands, proposing to boost how much American and regional content must be in cars and trucks to qualify for duty-free access under the pact, according to an official.

The U.S. proposed late Thursday raising the so-called auto rules of origin to 85 percent from the current 62.5 percent, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. The rules govern what share of a product must be sourced within Nafta to receive the pact’s benefits.

The U.S. also proposed adding a new, U.S.-only content requirement of 50 percent, meaning it wants half of every car traded under Nafta to be built in the U.S., the official said. The U.S. also proposed phasing in the 85 percent requirement over multiple years, the official said.

“The Nafta’s rule of origin for autos is already the highest in any trade agreement in the world but the administration reportedly would like to raise it to 85 percent,” U.S. Chamber of Commerce Senior Vice President for International Policy John Murphy said on Friday in a statement. “However, higher requirements for North American content would actually incentivize manufacturers to cease trading under the agreement and instead simply pay the low U.S. most-favored nation tariff (just 2.5%).”

Rules of origin will be negotiated in sessions Friday, Sunday and Monday during the fourth round of talks outside Washington. The auto sector has warned that a substantial change to rules of origin would upend supply chains and be costly for the industry.

A spokeswoman for U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

THE GLOBE AND MAIL. OCTOBER 12, 2017. OPINION. Mexico looks to Canada for signs of commitment on NAFTA
CAMPBELL CLARK, Columnist

MEXICO CITY - The Mexican government gave Justin Trudeau a warm welcome as a friend, but what it really wants is a commitment.

This is a time when Mexicans are feeling beaten up by U.S. President Donald Trump, so the Canadian Prime Minister is a relief for Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto: a North American friend who isn't talking about putting up walls or tearing down NAFTA.

There was pomp, with big Maple Leaf banners and a military band at the National Palace, and when the two leaders reviewed the honour guard, Mr. Trudeau reached an arm across Mr. Pena Nieto's back, and the Mexican President briefly returned the bro gesture. Mr. Trudeau was the PM who pleased Mexico by lifting visitor-visa requirements the Mexicans had bitterly resented for seven years. He's got a bit of glam that foreign counterparts like. On Friday, Mr. Trudeau will address the Mexican Senate, an honour that, according to former Mexican ambassador to Canada Francisco Suarez, is reserved for "major players."

But what the Mexicans really want is Canada to commit to sticking with them through trade-talk travails. Mexico has warned that if Mr. Trump triggers the six-month notice for withdrawal from NAFTA, it'll walk away from negotiations. It has said if Mr. Trump pulls out of NAFTA, it won't do a bilateral trade deal. It would like Canada to take the same unequivocal stands.

For the Mexicans, there's a fear that Canada is going to dump them when it gets tough, to do a bilateral trade deal with the Americans. "There is an element of doubt there," said Mr. Suarez. President Pena Nieto, he said, will certainly be asking him to "clarify."

Mr. Trudeau isn't willing to rule that out. Mexico would like Canada to say they, too, are for NAFTA 2.0, or bust.

"It was a topic that I tackled with the Prime Minister of Canada," Mr. Pena Nieto said as the two held a joint press conference. But this was an event to highlight friendship, so he didn't say what the outcome was. Neither did Mr. Trudeau really. Both said they wanted an updated NAFTA. "Obviously we know that we are in a somewhat unpredictable context," Mr. Trudeau said, but added that both he and the Mexican President agreed they had to stay focused on working seriously for the benefits of their citizens: "On that we're in perfect agreement."

Mr. Trudeau wasn't going to promise he's in that alliance to the bitter end.

For Canada, there's always been an uncertain question about whether the death of NAFTA might lead to a fallback on the old Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement from 1988; maybe, if the trilateral NAFTA dies, Canada would negotiate a new bilateral deal with the U.S.

Now, with Mr. Trump's negotiators tabling poison-pill proposals in the NAFTA talks that appear designed to kill them, Mr. Trudeau's team has to be wondering whether a bilateral deal will be Plan B. The Mexicans view it as buckling under.

There is a more visceral feeling about the NAFTA talks in Mexico, too. The Mexicans have been Mr. Trump's target on trade and many other things. Mr. Pena Nieto's government insists it won't negotiate with a gun to its head – Mr. Trump has said he wants to trigger the six-month notice for terminating NAFTA to get a better deal out of Canada and Mexico. The Mexicans don't think they'd get a workable bilateral deal, so they don't want Canada to jump at one. "Bilaterally, I think the United States can do pretty much whatever they want with us," said Mr. Suarez, who was President Pena Nieto's envoy in Ottawa from 2013 to 2016.

He argues that Mexico and Canada have more power together. When the U.S. imposed special labelling requirements for Mexican and Canadian beef and pork, the two countries successfully fought it together, he noted; when the U.S. and Japan moved to open the North American auto market to Asian competitors in the now-defunct Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks, Canada and Mexico worked together to roll the move back significantly.

That's not lost on Mr. Trudeau's team. It has joined forces with Mexicans to lobby American policy-makers in Congress and state capitals, so they'll lobby against killing NAFTA. But in this friendship, Mexico is asking for commitment, and Mr. Trudeau is keeping his options open.

The Globe and Mail. 13 Oct 2017. GM looks to Mexican plants as Ontario strike drags on. GM: Cami plant strike has nothing to do with NAFTA, source says. Auto maker mulling different ways to increase output of Chevrolet Equinox
GREG KEENAN,  AUTO INDUSTRY REPORTER

General Motors Co., facing declining inventories of one of its most popular vehicles because of a strike at a plant in Ingersoll, Ont., has told Unifor that it plans to increase production of the Chevrolet Equinox in Mexico as the strike continues.
The auto maker is looking at different ways to increase output of the Chevrolet Equinox – the bulk of which normally comes out of its Cami plant – by boosting output in Mexico or making use of excess capacity available at some of its U.S. assembly plants, a source familiar with GM’s plans said.
The warning to Unifor raises the temperature in a strike that is now in its fourth week with GM and the union, representing about 2,800 workers, in a deadlock over the issue of job security.
The union is seeking a commitment that GM identify Cami as the lead plant for Equinox production, which would put it first in line for new investment when the vehicle is redesigned and last in line for layoffs or shutdowns if the market slows or the vehicle’s popularity declines.
Job security at Cami arose as an issue after GM shifted production of the GMC Terrain to Mexico earlier this summer. The Terrain, as with its Equinox twin, is one of the GM entrants in the hot-selling crossover segment in both the U.S. and Canadian markets.
The union said that led to the elimination of 600 jobs at Cami, although the number of layoffs was reduced to about 400 through retirement incentives.
The union fears GM could make a similar move with the Equinox, which is produced at factories in Ramos Arizpe and San Luis Potosi in Mexico “We just want to make sure that if there’s a decline in [Equinox] volume, we’re going to be okay,” Unifor president Jerry Dias said. “They’re not giving us that.”
Mr. Dias confirmed that GM told union officials during a phone call Wednesday that it needs to find a way to meet demand if the strike continues.
“They told us they’re going to start to ramp up production [at the two plants] in Mexico,” he said.
He said the union plans to ratchet up the pressure on GM, but would not say what moves it will make.
Unifor could picket General Motors of Canada Co. dealerships, call for a boycott of GM products or picket other GM plants in Canada, including a factory in St. Catharines, Ont., that supplies engines and transmissions to some U.S. assembly plants.
Mr. Dias has argued that shifting the Terrain to Mexico to take advantage of labour rates that are about 10 per cent of the approximately $32 an hour paid to workers in Ontario makes Cami a poster child for what is wrong with the North American freetrade agreement.
The source familiar with GM’s thinking said the strike has nothing to do with NAFTA.
An $800-million investment GM made at Cami for the redesign of the Equinox for the current model year and the fact that the plant is operating on three shifts a day indicate that the company is confident about Cami’s future, the source said.
Mr. Dias said GM made verbal commitments about job security at a plant in Oshawa, Ont., during a set of negotiations five years ago, then shifted a vehicle out of Oshawa to a factory in Lansing, Mich. The company announced the closing of a pickup-truck plant in Oshawa in 2008, a few weeks after concluding negotiations with the Canadian Auto Workers union, Unifor’s predecessor.
Hot sales last month of the Equinox in both Canada and the United States reduced inventories to 41 days supply, well below the 60 to 70 days worth of vehicles auto makers typically want to have on hand.
AutoForecast Solutions LLC, an automotive consulting firm, estimated that the two Mexico plants produced 11,200 Equinox models last month, while Cami turned out 16,000 before the strike.
General Motors (GM) Close: $44.89 (U.S.), down 58¢ General Motors (GMM.U) Close: $44.90, down 58¢



BOMBARDIER



The Globe and Mail. The Canadian Press. 13 Oct 2017. Bombardier to miss deadline for streetcars
ROSS MAROWITS

Bombardier Transportation is reigniting disappointment in Toronto by notifying the city’s transit operator Thursday that it won’t meet this year’s target for delivering streetcars.
The company’s rail division says it informed the Toronto Transit Commission that because of supply-chain issues, it will deliver 65 vehicles by the end of the year, short of its original target of 70.
Bombardier says it has met every quarterly delivery commitment since launching its turnaround plan last year to get production back on track.
It expanded the production line in Thunder Bay, hired more employees, invested in developing its manufacturing sites and called upon the expertise of its global work force. Consequently, it will increase production by doing final assembly at two sites and adding additional suppliers.
TTC chairman Josh Colle and chief executive Andy Byford said there should be 146 new streetcars in service, instead of just 45.
Bombardier maintains that it remains on track to deliver the entire order of 204 streetcars by the original contract deadline of 2019.
Bombardier (BBD.B) Close: $2.32, down 3¢



INTERNATIONAL TRADE



EDC. OCTOBER 12, 2017. Decision Time!
Peter G Hall, Vice President and Chief Economist

Confusion seems to be hitting an apex. Political uncertainty is rife. Following a long run of disturbing natural events, this year’s storm season in the mid-Atlantic hit Biblical proportions. Then there are the structural weaknesses, a more-or-less permanent monument to the Great Recession – and the related sluggish growth, with which restless populations the world over are all too familiar. To make matters worse, there is a rising chorus of economists who believe we are on the verge of recession. If we’re really this shaky, how could it possibly be decision time?

Economists believe it’s decision time for policymakers. At their conferences, the hot topics are a lineup of today’s structural woes, and how to deal with them: fixes for the banking sector; fixes for fiscal policy; how to unwind (fix) extraordinary monetary stimulus; how to assess and address the economic effects of climate change; and how to make growth more inclusive. These are all key, relevant issues, and the proposals to address them, clever and noble. But they seem to universally appeal to a basic thread: that our long run of sluggish growth is our new, and absent a brilliant, original policy change, unending reality.

Regular folk have grown weary of waiting for the magic wand – just when it seems to be staring us in the face. No, it’s not an out-of-box policy solution. It’s an economic reality that has either been forgotten, or dismissed as dead: the business cycle. Slow post-recession growth might look permanent, but it was preceded by all the regular elements of the economy’s natural cycle: recovery, growth phase, peak and recession. What frustrates analysts is the absence of true recovery this time. But it’s not really absent, just delayed. Why? Well, it seems that globalization has stretched out the business cycle. Last time around, it produced a longer long, a higher high, and clearly a lower low. And a protracted recovery period.

If this is true, then the next phase isn’t recession; quite the opposite, it’s true recovery. And if that phase is here, there should be supporting evidence. Consider this first fact: after years of consistently revising forecasts downward, key international institutions have recently revised projections upward. A second development is the inclusion of workers – notably millennials – who until recently, were the casualty of meager global growth. A third occurrence is a notable improvement in key leading indicators. A critical fourth element is evidence of pent-up demand – both at the consumer level, which has been held back by a post-crisis neo-prudence, and at the business level, where investment has been on hold for a decade.

These developments and others have led us to remain upbeat in EDC’s latest Global Economic Outlook. Leading the charge is the vibrant US economy, forecast to rise 2.7 per cent in 2018 following this year’s 2.2 per cent performance. The European Union is projected to maintain growth above its long-term potential, rising 2.2 per cent this year and 1.9 per cent in 2018, with a ‘risk’ that growth will actually be higher. Increasingly, this developed-market growth is expected to spill into the emerging world, and there are already nascent signs of uptake. Our forecast calls for emerging markets to post 4.7 per cent growth for 2017, with next year reaching 4.9 per cent. Notably, India is taking the lead.

Increased momentum has generally favoured the outlook at the industry level. In the commodity space, which has been wracked by the mid-2014 price plunge, tightening growth has not only put a solid floor under prices, but has given them some recent – and needed – lift. An investment revival will not only benefit the construction industry, but also producers of machinery and equipment. The auto sector, already booming, is expected to continue at a high level.

Improved world growth has led to another key change: higher interest rates. Many think of this as an economy-killing, recession-inducing move. Not at this phase of the cycle; rate hikes are actually meant to keep the expansion orderly, and if you like are one of today’s clearest signals of true recovery.

The bottom line? If true recovery really is here, then now is decision time. After a long lull, time to make that key new investment. Time to make that foray into a new foreign market. Time to lock in financing before it gets more expensive. And time to move before everyone else catches on.



ECONOMICS SANCTIONS



Global Affairs Canada. October 13, 2017. Global Affairs Canada publishes Consolidated Special Economic Measures Act Sanctions List

Ottawa, Ontario - Canada uses economic sanctions as an important and strategic foreign policy tool to respond to rapidly developing international crises or violations of international peace and security. The Government of Canada is making changes to facilitate the implementation and enforcement of its economic sanctions.

Global Affairs Canada today published the Consolidated Special Economic Measures Act Sanctions List. The list contains the individuals and entities named in the schedules of sanctions regulations made under the Special Economic Measures Act (SEMA). The list is available on Global Affairs Canada’s Canadian Economic Sanctions website.

The consolidated list is one of the commitments the government made in July in response to recommendations made by the House of Commons Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development in its review of the Special Economic Measures Act and the Freezing Assets of Corrupt Foreign Officials Act. The list is easily accessible and seeks to assist those responsible for implementing and enforcing sanctions in Canada.

The prohibitions may not apply to each individual or entity in the same way, and each applicable sanctions regulation specifies the prohibitions that apply to a particular individual or entity. Users seeking accurate information on which provisions apply to a specific individual or entity must therefore refer to the relevant regulation.

The Consolidated SEMA Sanctions List is for administrative purposes only. The list is not a regulation, and it does not have the force of law.



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LGCJ.:
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