US ECONOMICS
BEA. 03/21/2017. U.S. International Transactions, 4th quarter and Year 2016. Current-Account Balance, Fourth Quarter.
The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $112.4 billion (preliminary) in the fourth quarter of 2016 from $116.0 billion (revised) in the third quarter of 2016, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit decreased to 2.4 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.5 percent in the third quarter.
The $3.6 billion decrease in the current-account deficit mostly reflected a $19.9 billion
increase in the surplus on primary income that was largely offset by a $17.5 billion increase
in the deficit on goods. The changes in the surplus on services and the deficit on secondary
income were relatively small.
Current-Account Transactions, Fourth Quarter (tables 1-5)
Exports of goods and services and income receipts
Exports of goods and services and income receipts increased $4.0 billion in the fourth quarter
to $804.0 billion.
* Primary income receipts increased $4.4 billion to $207.9 billion, reflecting increases in
direct investment income, largely income on equity, and in portfolio investment income,
largely reflecting interest on long-term debt securities.
* Goods exports decreased $3.4 billion to $371.7 billion, partly offsetting the increase in
primary income receipts. The decrease reflected an $8.4 billion decrease in exports of
foods, feeds, and beverages, largely soybeans, that was partly offset by a net increase
in other major categories.
Imports of goods and services and income payments
Imports of goods and services and income payments increased $0.4 billion to $916.4 billion.
* Goods imports increased $14.1 billion to $567.9 billion. Increases were largest in
industrial supplies and materials and in consumer goods except food and automotive.
* Primary income payments decreased $15.4 billion to $146.5 billion, mostly offsetting the
increase in goods imports and small increases in secondary income payments and services
imports. The decrease reflected a $19.9 billion decrease in direct investment income
that was concentrated in earnings of U.S. affiliates in wholesale trade and mostly
resulted from charges against earnings related to legal settlements. The decrease in
direct investment income was partly offset by an increase in portfolio investment income,
primarily interest on long-term debt securities.
Financial Account, Fourth Quarter (tables 1, 6, 7, and 8)
Net U.S. borrowing measured by financial-account transactions was $92.0 billion in the fourth
quarter, a decrease from net borrowing of $224.4 billion in the third quarter. A decrease in
net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives was partly offset by a shift
to net U.S. liquidation of financial assets excluding financial derivatives and a shift to net
borrowing in financial derivatives other than reserves.
Financial assets
Transactions in financial assets excluding financial derivatives shifted to net U.S.
liquidation of $79.1 billion in the fourth quarter from net U.S. acquisition of $28.3 billion
in the third quarter.
* Net U.S. liquidation of other investment assets increased $95.5 billion, reflecting a
shift to net foreign repayment of loans from net U.S. provision in the third quarter.
* Net U.S. acquisition of direct investment assets decreased $13.9 billion to $80.7 billion,
reflecting a shift to net repayment of debt by foreign affiliates to their U.S. parents.
Liabilities
Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives decreased $246.8 billion to
$12.4 billion.
* Net U.S. incurrence of portfolio investment liabilities decreased $157.0 billion to $61.6
billion, reflecting a shift to net foreign sales of U.S. equity and investment fund
shares that was partly offset by an increase in net foreign purchases of U.S. long-term
debt securities.
* Net U.S. incurrence of direct investment liabilities decreased $91.7 billion to $33.0
billion, reflecting a decrease in net incurrence of equity liabilities and a shift to net
U.S. repayment of debt instrument liabilities.
Financial derivatives
Transactions in financial derivatives other than reserves reflected fourth-quarter net
borrowing of $0.4 billion, a shift from net lending of $6.5 billion in the third quarter.
Statistical Discrepancy, Fourth Quarter (table 1)
The statistical discrepancy shifted to $20.4 billion in the fourth quarter from -$108.4 billion
in the third quarter.
Updates to Third Quarter 2016 International Transactions Accounts Aggregates
Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
Preliminary estimate Revised estimate
Current-account balance -113.0 -116.0
Goods balance -177.7 -178.7
Services balance 61.3 62.4
Primary-income balance 43.4 41.6
Secondary-income balance -39.9 -41.4
Net lending (+)/borrowing (-) from
financial-account transactions -207.9 -224.4
Statistical discrepancy -95.0 -108.4
Current-Account Balance, Year 2016
The current-account deficit increased to $481.2 billion (preliminary) in 2016 from $463.0
billion in 2015. The deficit was 2.6 percent of current-dollar GDP in 2016, the same
percentage as in 2015.
The $18.2 billion increase in the deficit reflected a $16.2 billion increase in the deficit on
secondary income, a $12.8 billion decrease in the surplus on services, and a $1.8 billion
decrease in the surplus on primary income. These changes were partly offset by a $12.6 billion
decrease in the deficit on goods.
Current-Account Transactions, Year 2016 (tables 1-5)
Exports of goods and services and income receipts
Exports of goods and services and income receipts decreased $30.5 billion in 2016 to $3,142.2
billion.
* Goods exports decreased $50.6 billion to $1,459.7 billion, mostly reflecting decreases in
industrial supplies and materials and in capital goods except automotive.
* Primary income receipts increased $19.0 billion to $801.9 billion, partly offsetting the
decrease in goods exports. The increase in primary income reflected increases in
portfolio investment income, mostly dividends on equity other than investment fund shares,
and in other investment income, mostly interest.
Imports of goods and services and income payments
Imports of goods and services and income payments decreased $12.3 billion to $3,623.4 billion.
* Goods imports decreased $63.3 billion to $2,209.6 billion. The decrease in goods imports
was largely offset by increases in primary income payments, secondary income payments, and
services imports. The decrease in goods imports primarily reflected a decrease in industrial
supplies and materials, mostly petroleum and products.
Financial Account, Year 2016 (tables 1, 6, 7, and 8)
Net U.S. borrowing measured by financial-account transactions was $406.5 billion in 2016, an
increase from net borrowing of $195.2 billion in 2015. An increase in net U.S. incurrence of
liabilities excluding financial derivatives was partly offset by an increase in net U.S.
acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives and a shift to net lending from
net borrowing in financial derivatives other than reserves.
Financial assets
Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives increased $105.6
billion in 2016 to $331.0 billion.
* Net liquidation of other investment assets decreased $231.6 billion to $39.3 billion,
reflecting a decrease in net withdrawal of U.S. residents’ foreign deposits and a shift
to net U.S. provision of loans to foreign residents.
* Net acquisition of portfolio investment assets decreased $133.3 billion to $20.7 billion,
partly offsetting the decrease in net liquidation of other investment assets. The
decrease in net acquisition of portfolio investment assets reflected a shift to net U.S.
sales of foreign equity and investment fund shares that was partly offset by a shift to
net U.S. acquisition of foreign debt securities.
Liabilities
Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives increased $364.1 billion to
$759.4 billion.
* Transactions in other investment liabilities shifted to net incurrence of $63.2 billion
from net repayment of $235.1 billion, primarily reflecting a shift to net incurrence of
loans from foreigners.
* Net incurrence of direct investment liabilities increased $45.8 billion to $425.3 billion,
primarily reflecting an increase in net incurrence of equity liabilities.
Financial derivatives
Transactions in financial derivatives other than reserves shifted to net lending of $22.0
billion in 2016 from net borrowing of $25.4 billion in 2015.
FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/transactions/2017/pdf/trans416.pdf
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OECD. 21/03/2017. China: time to focus on financial risks and structural reform
As the Chinese economy matures to a slower but more sustainable growth path, policy efforts need to focus more on efficiency, stability and inclusiveness, according to a new OECD report.
The latest OECD Economic Survey of China projects that the Chinese economy will remain the major driver of global growth for the foreseeable future, with per capita GDP on course to almost double by 2020 from 2010 levels. The Survey recommends continued efforts to rebalance the economy from investment to consumption and to address key risks including high corporate debt, excess industrial capacity and inflated housing prices.
“After decades of breath-taking expansion, the focus should be on making growth more resilient, sustainable and inclusive, and addressing risks to stability,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría. “China’s economy should now be driven less by physical investment and more by innovation, it should deleverage and it should, above all, become greener.”
Financial risks are mounting on the back of rising enterprise debt and over-capacity in some sectors, as well as real estate price exuberance. Debt owed by non-financial firms in China, encouraged by implicit state guarantees to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and public entities, reached 170% of GDP in 2016, the highest level among leading economies. Two-thirds of enterprise debt is owed by SOEs. Steps to tackle financial risks should include gradually removing implicit guarantees to SOEs and restricting leveraged investment in asset markets.
The Survey also recommends further structural reforms in line with China’s quest to become a “moderately prosperous society” by 2020.
The tax and transfer system reduces income inequality less than in other leading economies. For example, many low-income households pay a higher share of income in social contributions than richer ones. The Survey suggests basing those contributions on actual income earned, but also broadening the personal income tax base and increasing tax progressivity.
Vast disparities also exist in access to quality education. The Survey argues for increasing public funding for childcare and encouraging the participation of rural children in early childhood education. It also advocates greater central and provincial government social assistance transfers to poorer areas.
The Survey further recommends that support for research and development, which at present is too concentrated on high-tech industries, be broadened to a wider range of sectors to boost innovation across the economy and maintain sustainable growth. Although China ranks first worldwide in terms of patents, streamlining the incentive system and removing regulatory barriers would boost the impact of innovation on productivity.
FULL DOCUMENT: http://www.oecd.org/china/economic-survey-china.htm
BANCO MUNDIAL. REUTERS. 21/03/2017. Diretora do Banco Mundial defende globalização e alerta contra protecionismo
PEQUIM (Reuters) - A diretora-gerente recém-nomeada do Banco Mundial, Kristalina Georgieva, fez uma vigorosa defesa da globalização durante sua primeira visita oficial à China, dizendo que ela ajudou países mais ricos e mais pobres e que a integração econômica dificulta que qualquer nação se afaste.
Kristalina, búlgara que assumiu o cargo no banco de desenvolvimento multilateral no início deste ano, também elogiou a China por seu compromisso com as reformas econômicas e os mercados abertos.
"Os mercados abertos, o comércio e a divisão de trabalho têm funcionado extremamente bem para os países mais pobres", disse ela à Reuters em entrevista na segunda-feira.
Mas os países mais ricos também se beneficiaram do aumento da classe média, que está exigindo mais exportações de economias avançadas, disse Kristalina, ex-vice-presidente da Comissão Europeia.
Na Alemanha, no fim de semana, ministros das Finanças e autoridades de banco centrais das nações do G20 retiraram uma promessa anterior em seu comunicado para manter o comércio global livre e aberto, ratificando uma administração cada vez mais protecionista dos Estados Unidos.
Kristalina pediu uma "conversa inteligente e calma" para compartilhar os benefícios da globalização de forma mais ampla.
Alertando sobre as políticas protecionistas, ela disse que todos os países serão prejudicados se décadas de integração e interdependência forem desfeitas.
Em vez de erguer barreiras comerciais, as economias devem encorajar a competição, o que estimula a inovação e aumenta a produtividade, disse ela.
(Por Matthew Miller)
MF. PORTAL G1. 21/03/2017. PIB pode crescer acima de 3% em 2018, prevê ministro Henrique Meirelles. Ministro da Fazenda disse ainda que, sem ajuste fiscal, rombo nas contas do governo seria de R$ 280 bilhões em 2017. Ele defendeu teto de gastos e reforma da Previdência.
Por Alexandro Martello, G1, Brasília
O ministro da Fazenda, Henrique Meirelles, declarou nesta terça-feira (21) que a economia brasileira começa a se recuperar e pode crescer acima de 3% em 2018.
De acordo com o ministro, isso pode acontecer se a economia mantiver, em 2018, o ritmo de crescimento do último trimestre de 2017 que, prevê o governo, deve resultar em alta de 2,7% em relação a igual período de 2016.
"Vivemos a maior recessão da história do pais. A boa notícia é que economia começa a se recuperar. Prevemos crescimento no primeiro trimestre, levemente positivo. Se compararmos, no último trimestre já estamos contemplando 2,7% [contra os seis últimos meses de 2016]. A taxa anualizada, se repetir a taxa prevista para o quarto trimestre, significa acima de 3% em 2018 (...) No ano que vem, vamos crescer talvez mais de 3%", declarou.
A previsão do ministro da Fazenda está um pouco acima das estimativas do mercado financeiro. Segundo pesquisa conduzida na semana passada pelo Banco Central com mais de 100 instituições financeiras, o PIB deverá crescer 2,5% no ano que vem, contra uma taxa de expansão de cerca de 0,5% neste ano.
No começo deste mês, o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) infomrou que o PIB brasileiro caiu pelo segundo ano seguido em 2016 e confirmou a pior recessão da história do país. A retração foi de 3,6% em relação ao ano anterior. Em 2015, a economia já havia recuado 3,8%. Essa sequência, de dois anos seguidos de baixa, só foi verificada no Brasil nos anos de 1930 e 1931.
Ajuste nas contas públicas
De acordo com Meirelles, o foco da equipe econômica, neste momento, é o ajuste das contas públicas, que vem registraram rombos bilionários nos últimos anos.
Para 2017, a meta fiscal é de um déficit primário (despesa maior que a receita, sem contar juros da dívida pública) de até R$ 139 bilhões.
Ele disse que o governo vem adotando medidas para controlar os gastos, como o teto para gastos, e disse que, sem essas ações, o rombo fiscal seria de R$ 280 bilhoes neste ano.
"Mantendo a tendência de despesas públicas até este ano, dos últimos anos, teríamos em 2017 um déficit que passaria de R$ 139 bilhões. Seria de R$ 280 bilhões", afirmou o ministro da Fazenda.
Ele disse ainda que, sem o teto de gastos e a reforma da Previdência Social – que ainda está sendo debatida no Congresso Nacional – as despesas seriam dez pontos percentuais do PIB superiores em 2026.
Segundo ele, se a trajetória de alta de gastos continuasse nos próximos anos, sem teto de gastos e sem reforma da Previdência, levaria as despesas totais a 25,4% do PIB em dez anos.
"Para manter o déficit onde está hoje, aumentar a tributação do país em 10% do PIB. Podem imaginar quais seriam as consequências. Com aprovação da PEC do teto e da Previdência, a previsão é ir para 15,5% [do PIB]. Temos dez pontos de diferença. Essa é a dimensão do ajuste fiscal que estamos fazendo no Brasil", afirmou.
O ministro Henrique Meirelles também avaliou que outras reformas são importantes para estimular o nível de atividade na economia e a geração de empregos, entre as quais as reformas trabalhista e tributária, além de uma racionalização na maneira de pagar impostos.
Ele também mencionou mudanças nas regras de concessões, com estabilidade de regras para os investidores, e a reforma do setor de petróleo e gás.
MF. PORTAL UOL. 21/03/2017. Meirelles diz que reformas podem fazer o crescimento sustentável do Brasil avançar a 4%
BRASÍLIA (Reuters) - - O ministro da Fazenda, Henrique Meirelles, afirmou nesta terça-feira que as reformas econômicas propostas pelo governo, como a da Previdência e trabalhista, e as medidas microeconômicas em andamento podem fazer o crescimento sustentável chegar a 4 por cento nos próximos anos.
Atualmente, de acordo com o ministro, as condições atuais permitem ao Brasil ter um crescimento sustentável em 2,5 por cento.
(Reportagem César Raizer; Texto de Luiz Guilherme Gerbelli)
MF. REUTERS. 21/03/2017. Meirelles reafirma que pode elevar imposto para garantir meta de resultado primário
BRASÍLIA (Reuters) - O ministro da Fazenda, Henrique Meirelles, reafirmou nesta terça-feira que elevará impostos se isso for necessário para garantir o cumprimento da meta fiscal e que o montante de um contingenciamento do Orçamento será definido até meados de quarta-feira.
A meta do governo central (Tesouro, Banco Central e Previdência Social) é de um déficit primário de 139 bilhões de reais. Na quarta-feira, o governo divulga o relatório bimestral de receitas e despesas, em meio às fortes expectativas do anúncio de um contingenciamento de recursos do Orçamento.
A afirmação de Meirelles foi feita após reunião com a bancada do PSDB na Câmara dos Deputados para discutir a reforma da Previdência.
Depois do encontro com os tucanos, ao participar de evento em Brasília, Meirelles voltou a reafirmar a possibilidade de aumento de imposto caso necessário.
O ministro da Fazenda também defendeu as reformas econômicas, como a da Previdência e trabalhista, encampadas pelo governo e as medidas microeconômicas em andamento para acelerar o crescimento da economia brasileira.
"Essas medidas podem fazer o crescimento sustentável chegar a 4 por cento nos próximos anos", disse Meirelles.
Atualmente, de acordo com o ministro, as condições permitem ao Brasil ter um crescimento sustentável em 2,5 por cento.
(Reportagem de Marcela Ayres e Cesar Raizer; Texto de Luiz Guilherme Gerbelli)
FORBES. MAR 20, 2017. Forbes 2017 Billionaires List: Meet The Richest People On The Planet
By Luisa Kroll and Kerry A. Dolan
It was a record year for the richest people on earth, as the number of billionaires jumped 13% to 2,043 from 1,810 last year, the first time ever that Forbes has pinned down more than 2,000 ten-figure-fortunes. Their total net worth rose by 18% to $7.67 trillion, also a record. The change in the number of billionaires -- up 233 since the 2016 list -- was the biggest in the 31 years that Forbes has been tracking billionaires globally. Gainers since last year’s list outnumbered losers by more than three to one.
Bill Gates is the number one richest for the fourth year in a row, and the richest person in the world for 18 out of the past 23 years. He has a fortune of $86 billion, up from $75 billion last year. Amazon’s Jeff Bezos had the best year of any person on the planet, adding $27.6 billion to his fortune; now worth $72.8 billion, he moved into the top three in the world for the first time, up from number five a year ago.
Warren Buffett had the second-best year, and the biggest gain since Donald Trump was elected president in November 2016. His $14.8 billion jump in 12 months was enough for him to grab back the number two spot from Amancio Ortega, founder of Spanish clothing chain Zara. Ortega’s fortune was up $4.3 billion since last year, but he still fell to fourth in the world, unable to keep up with the outsize gains of others.
Members of the 2017 Forbes list of billionaires, from top left: Chobani founder Hamdi Ulukaya, VietJet founder Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao, Bill Gates; from bottom left: Paytm founder Vijay Shekhar Sharma, Amazon.com's Jeff Bezos, Stripe cofounder John Collison. Forbes via agencies.
Members of the 2017 Forbes list of billionaires, from top left: Chobani founder Hamdi Ulukaya, VietJet founder Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao, Bill Gates; from bottom left: Paytm founder Vijay Shekhar Sharma, Amazon.com's Jeff Bezos, Stripe cofounder John Collison.
Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg moved up to number five for the first time, after his fortune rose $11.4 billion in 12 months. Meanwhile Carlos Slim Helu of Mexico, once the world’s richest man, fell to number six, the first time he’s been out of the top five in a dozen years.
There were 195 newcomers. Mainland China had the most new ten-figure fortunes with 76. The U.S. was second with 25. Notable newbies include Patagonia sportswear founder Yvon Chouinard; Viking Cruises founder Torstein Hagen of Norway; U.S. hedge fund tycoon Cliff Asness and two of his partners; and John and Patrick Collison, Irish citizens who cofounded San Francisco-based Stripe, which enables online payments. John Collison, age 26, is now the world’s youngest self-made billionaire, just two months younger than Snapchat’s Evan Spiegel. The Collisons are two of just four self-made billionaires in their 20s (the other two are the Snapchat cofounders). There are 56 billionaires under age 40, down from 66 last year, after some aged out and others dropped below the $1 billion mark.
New Australian billionaire Manny Stul may not be a familiar name yet, but his popular Shopkins, grocery-inspired plastic collectibles with names like Kris P. Lettuce and Posh Pear, are a huge hit with American kids.
There are also 15 new self-made women, all but one of whom are from Asia Pacific. That includes 10 from China and the first ever from Vietnam, Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao, who took her budget airline, VietJet Air, public in February 2017. The sole American self-made woman newcomer is Thai Lee, who was born in Thailand but moved to the U.S. as a child and now runs tech reseller SHI, reportedly the nation’s largest woman-owned business by sales. Altogether there are 227 women on list, including 10 who cofounded or own businesses with a spouse or a brother and thus share the fortune.
The U.S. continues to have more billionaires than any other nation, with a record 565, up from 540 a year ago. China is catching up with 319. (Hong Kong has another 67, and Macau 1.) Germany has the third most with 114 and India, with 101, the first time it has had more than 100, is fourth.
Seventy-eight people fell off the list, including 33 from China, 7 Americans and 9 who are still super wealthy but share their wealth among extended family members and therefore are not eligible for these ranks. Additionally, 20 billionaires died in the past year, including Enterprise car rental founder Jack Taylor and Michael Ilitch, who launched Little Caesar’s pizza with his wife, Marian.
BRAZIL: #22, Jorge Paulo Lemann, $29.2 B, age: 77, Sector: beer (AMBEV)
FULL LIST: https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/#version:static
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