US CENSUS BUREAU. SEPTEMBER 13, 2016. Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2015
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that real median household income increased by 5.2 percent between 2014 and 2015 while the official poverty rate decreased 1.2 percentage points. At the same time, the percentage of people without health insurance coverage decreased.
Income
- Real median incomes in 2015 for family households ($72,165) and nonfamily households ($33,805) increased 5.3 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, from their 2014 medians. This is the first annual increase in median household income for family households since 2007. The most recent increase for nonfamily households was in 2009. The increases of 5.3 percent and 5.4 percent for family and nonfamily households were not statistically different.
- Real median household income in 2015 was 1.6 percent lower than in 2007, the year before the most recent recession, and 2.4 percent lower than the median household income peak that occurred in 1999. The difference between the 1.6 percent change and the 2.4 percent change was not statistically significant.
- Real median incomes in 2015 for family households ($72,165) and nonfamily households ($33,805) increased 5.3 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, from their 2014 medians. This is the first annual increase in median household income for family households since 2007. The most recent increase for nonfamily households was in 2009. The increases of 5.3 percent and 5.4 percent for family and nonfamily households were not statistically different.
- Real median household income in 2015 was 1.6 percent lower than in 2007, the year before the most recent recession, and 2.4 percent lower than the median household income peak that occurred in 1999. The difference between the 1.6 percent change and the 2.4 percent change was not statistically significant.
Race and Hispanic Origin
- The real median income of Hispanic households increased by 6.1 percent between 2014 and 2015. Non-Hispanic white and black households also saw increases of 4.4 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively. While Asian households had the highest median income in 2015, the percentage change in their real median income was not statistically significant between 2014 and 2015. The differences between the 2014 to 2015 percentage changes in median income for non-Hispanic white, black and Hispanic households were not statistically different. (See Table 1 in the report.)
- The real median income of Hispanic households increased by 6.1 percent between 2014 and 2015. Non-Hispanic white and black households also saw increases of 4.4 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively. While Asian households had the highest median income in 2015, the percentage change in their real median income was not statistically significant between 2014 and 2015. The differences between the 2014 to 2015 percentage changes in median income for non-Hispanic white, black and Hispanic households were not statistically different. (See Table 1 in the report.)
Regions
- Households in all regions experienced an increase in real median income between 2014 and 2015. Median household income increased 6.4 percent in the West, 5.1 percent in the Midwest, 4.9 percent in the Northeast and 2.9 percent in the South. The differences between the 2014 to 2015 percentage changes in median household income for all regions when compared to each other, except for the difference between the South and the West, were not statistically significant. (See Table 1 in the report.)
- Households with the highest median income were in the Northeast ($62,182) and the West ($61,442), followed by the Midwest ($57,082) and the South ($51,174). The difference between the median household incomes for the Northeast and West were not statistically significant. (See Table 1 in the report.)
- Households in all regions experienced an increase in real median income between 2014 and 2015. Median household income increased 6.4 percent in the West, 5.1 percent in the Midwest, 4.9 percent in the Northeast and 2.9 percent in the South. The differences between the 2014 to 2015 percentage changes in median household income for all regions when compared to each other, except for the difference between the South and the West, were not statistically significant. (See Table 1 in the report.)
- Households with the highest median income were in the Northeast ($62,182) and the West ($61,442), followed by the Midwest ($57,082) and the South ($51,174). The difference between the median household incomes for the Northeast and West were not statistically significant. (See Table 1 in the report.)
Earnings
- The 2015 real median earnings of men and women who worked full time, year-round between 2014 and 2015 increased 1.5 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. This is the first significant annual increase in median earnings for men and women since 2009. The difference between the 1.5 percent change and 2.7 percent change was not statistically significant.
- In 2015, the median earnings of women who worked full time, year-round ($40,742) was 80.0 percent of that for men working full time, year-round ($51,212) — not statistically different from the 2014 ratio. The female-to-male earnings ratio has not shown a statistically significant annual increase since 2007.
- The number of men and women working full time, year-round increased by 1.4 million and 1.0 million, respectively, between 2014 and 2015. An estimated 73.9 percent of working men with earnings and 61.3 percent of working women with earnings worked full time, year-round in 2015, not statistically different from 2014. The difference between the 2014 to 2015 increases in the number of men and women full time, year-round workers was not statistically significant.
- The 2015 real median earnings of men and women who worked full time, year-round between 2014 and 2015 increased 1.5 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. This is the first significant annual increase in median earnings for men and women since 2009. The difference between the 1.5 percent change and 2.7 percent change was not statistically significant.
- In 2015, the median earnings of women who worked full time, year-round ($40,742) was 80.0 percent of that for men working full time, year-round ($51,212) — not statistically different from the 2014 ratio. The female-to-male earnings ratio has not shown a statistically significant annual increase since 2007.
- The number of men and women working full time, year-round increased by 1.4 million and 1.0 million, respectively, between 2014 and 2015. An estimated 73.9 percent of working men with earnings and 61.3 percent of working women with earnings worked full time, year-round in 2015, not statistically different from 2014. The difference between the 2014 to 2015 increases in the number of men and women full time, year-round workers was not statistically significant.
Income Inequality
- The Gini index was 0.479 in 2015; the change from 2014 was not statistically significant. Since 1993, the earliest year available for comparable measures of income inequality, the Gini index has increased 5.5 percent. (Developed more than a century ago, the Gini index is the most common measure of household income inequality used by economists, with 0.0 representing total income equality and 1.0 equivalent to total inequality.)
- Changes in income inequality between 2014 and 2015 were not statistically significant as measured by the shares of aggregate household income by quintiles.
- The Gini index was 0.479 in 2015; the change from 2014 was not statistically significant. Since 1993, the earliest year available for comparable measures of income inequality, the Gini index has increased 5.5 percent. (Developed more than a century ago, the Gini index is the most common measure of household income inequality used by economists, with 0.0 representing total income equality and 1.0 equivalent to total inequality.)
- Changes in income inequality between 2014 and 2015 were not statistically significant as measured by the shares of aggregate household income by quintiles.
Poverty
- The poverty rate for families and the number of families in poverty were 10.4 percent and 8.6 million in 2015, a decrease from 11.6 percent and 9.5 million families in 2014.
- In 2015, 5.4 percent of married-couple families, 28.2 percent of families with a female householder, and 14.9 percent of families with a male householder lived in poverty. For married-couple families and families with a female householder, both the poverty rate and the number in poverty decreased. For families with a male householder, neither the poverty rates nor the number in poverty showed any statistically significant change between 2014 and 2015.
- The poverty rate for families and the number of families in poverty were 10.4 percent and 8.6 million in 2015, a decrease from 11.6 percent and 9.5 million families in 2014.
- In 2015, 5.4 percent of married-couple families, 28.2 percent of families with a female householder, and 14.9 percent of families with a male householder lived in poverty. For married-couple families and families with a female householder, both the poverty rate and the number in poverty decreased. For families with a male householder, neither the poverty rates nor the number in poverty showed any statistically significant change between 2014 and 2015.
Thresholds
- As defined by the Office of Management and Budget and updated for inflation using the Consumer Price Index, the weighted average poverty threshold for a family of four in 2015 was $24,257.
- As defined by the Office of Management and Budget and updated for inflation using the Consumer Price Index, the weighted average poverty threshold for a family of four in 2015 was $24,257.
Sex
- In 2015, 12.2 percent of males were in poverty, down from 13.4 percent in 2014. About 14.8 percent of females were in poverty in 2015, down from 16.1 percent in 2014. (See Table 3 in the report.)
- Gender differences in poverty rates were more pronounced for those ages 18 to 64. The poverty rate for women ages 18 to 64 was 14.2 percent while the poverty rate for men ages 18 to 64 was 10.5 percent. The poverty rate for women age 65 and older was 10.3 percent while the poverty rate for men age 65 and older was 7.0 percent.
- In 2015, 12.2 percent of males were in poverty, down from 13.4 percent in 2014. About 14.8 percent of females were in poverty in 2015, down from 16.1 percent in 2014. (See Table 3 in the report.)
- Gender differences in poverty rates were more pronounced for those ages 18 to 64. The poverty rate for women ages 18 to 64 was 14.2 percent while the poverty rate for men ages 18 to 64 was 10.5 percent. The poverty rate for women age 65 and older was 10.3 percent while the poverty rate for men age 65 and older was 7.0 percent.
Race and Hispanic Origin
- In 2015, 9.1 percent of non-Hispanic whites were in poverty, down from 10.1 percent in 2014. The number in poverty decreased to 17.8 million, down from 19.7 million. Non-Hispanic whites accounted for 61.4 percent of the total population and 41.2 percent of people in poverty.
- Both the rate and number of Hispanics in poverty in 2015 decreased to 21.4 percent and 12.1 million from 23.6 percent and 13.1 million in 2014.
- Both the rate and number of blacks in poverty in 2015 decreased to 24.1 percent and 10.0 million from 26.2 percent and 10.8 million in 2014.
- Asians did not experience a statistically significant change in their poverty rates nor in the number of people in poverty between 2014 and 2015.
- Table 3 in the report details 2015 poverty rates and numbers in poverty, as well as changes since 2014 in these measures, across race groups and Hispanic origin.
- In 2015, 9.1 percent of non-Hispanic whites were in poverty, down from 10.1 percent in 2014. The number in poverty decreased to 17.8 million, down from 19.7 million. Non-Hispanic whites accounted for 61.4 percent of the total population and 41.2 percent of people in poverty.
- Both the rate and number of Hispanics in poverty in 2015 decreased to 21.4 percent and 12.1 million from 23.6 percent and 13.1 million in 2014.
- Both the rate and number of blacks in poverty in 2015 decreased to 24.1 percent and 10.0 million from 26.2 percent and 10.8 million in 2014.
- Asians did not experience a statistically significant change in their poverty rates nor in the number of people in poverty between 2014 and 2015.
- Table 3 in the report details 2015 poverty rates and numbers in poverty, as well as changes since 2014 in these measures, across race groups and Hispanic origin.
Regions
- In 2015, the poverty rate and the number in poverty decreased in the South, West and Midwest to 15.3 percent, 13.3 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively. The Northeast did not experience a significant change in the poverty rate or the number in poverty between 2014 and 2015. (See Table 3 in the report.)
- In 2015, the poverty rate and the number in poverty decreased in the South, West and Midwest to 15.3 percent, 13.3 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively. The Northeast did not experience a significant change in the poverty rate or the number in poverty between 2014 and 2015. (See Table 3 in the report.)
Shared Households
- Between 2015 and 2016, changes in the number and percentage of shared households were not statistically significant. In 2016, there were 24.1 million shared households, representing 19.1 percent of all households. In 2007, prior to the recession, there were 19.7 million shared households, representing 17.0 percent of all households.
- In 2016, 7.0 million young adults ages 25 to 34 (16.0 percent) lived with their parents, an increase from 6.5 million (15.1 percent) in 2015.
- Between 2015 and 2016, changes in the number and percentage of shared households were not statistically significant. In 2016, there were 24.1 million shared households, representing 19.1 percent of all households. In 2007, prior to the recession, there were 19.7 million shared households, representing 17.0 percent of all households.
- In 2016, 7.0 million young adults ages 25 to 34 (16.0 percent) lived with their parents, an increase from 6.5 million (15.1 percent) in 2015.
Supplemental Poverty Measure
- The supplemental poverty rate in 2015 was 14.3 percent, compared to last year’s rate of 15.3 percent.
- There were 45.7 million people in poverty in 2015 using the supplemental measure, higher than the 43.5 million using the official poverty definition with the supplemental poverty measure universe.
- The poverty rate declined for many groups and no major group experienced a statistically significant increase.
- When tax credits and noncash benefits results are included, this results in lower poverty rates for some groups. For instance, the supplemental poverty rate was lower for children than the official rate: 16.1 percent compared with 20.1 percent.
- The supplemental poverty rate in 2015 was 14.3 percent, compared to last year’s rate of 15.3 percent.
- There were 45.7 million people in poverty in 2015 using the supplemental measure, higher than the 43.5 million using the official poverty definition with the supplemental poverty measure universe.
- The poverty rate declined for many groups and no major group experienced a statistically significant increase.
- When tax credits and noncash benefits results are included, this results in lower poverty rates for some groups. For instance, the supplemental poverty rate was lower for children than the official rate: 16.1 percent compared with 20.1 percent.
Health Insurance Coverage
- The Current Population Survey shows that the percentage of people with health insurance coverage for all or part of 2015 was 90.9 percent, higher than the rate in 2014 (89.6 percent).
- The uninsured rate decreased between 2014 and 2015 by 1.3 percentage points. In 2015, the percentage of people without health insurance coverage for the entire calendar year was 9.1 percent, or 29.0 million, lower than the rate and number of uninsured in 2014 (10.4 percent or 33.0 million). See Figure 1 in the report and Table 1 in the report. Over time, changes in the rate of health insurance coverage and the distribution of coverage types may reflect economic trends, shifts in the demographic composition of the population, and policy changes that impact access to health care. Several such policy changes occurred in 2014, when many provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act went into effect.
- Between 2014 and 2015, the increase in the percentage of the population covered by health insurance was due to an increase in the rates of both private and government coverage. The rate of private coverage increased by 1.2 percentage points to 67.2 percent in 2015, and the government coverage rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 37.1 percent.
- Of the subtypes of health insurance, employment-based insurance covered the most people (55.7 percent of the population), followed by Medicaid (19.6 percent), Medicare (16.3 percent), direct-purchase (16.3 percent) and military health care (4.7 percent).
- Between 2014 and 2015, the greatest change in coverage was the change in direct-purchase health insurance, which increased by 1.7 percentage points to cover 16.3 percent of people for some or all of 2015 (up from 14.6 percent in 2014).
- In 2015, the uninsured rate for children younger than age 19 was 5.3 percent, down from 6.2 percent in 2014.
- In 2015, the uninsured rate for children younger than age 19 in poverty (7.5 percent) was higher than the uninsured rate for children not in poverty (4.8 percent).
- The Current Population Survey shows that the percentage of people with health insurance coverage for all or part of 2015 was 90.9 percent, higher than the rate in 2014 (89.6 percent).
- The uninsured rate decreased between 2014 and 2015 by 1.3 percentage points. In 2015, the percentage of people without health insurance coverage for the entire calendar year was 9.1 percent, or 29.0 million, lower than the rate and number of uninsured in 2014 (10.4 percent or 33.0 million). See Figure 1 in the report and Table 1 in the report. Over time, changes in the rate of health insurance coverage and the distribution of coverage types may reflect economic trends, shifts in the demographic composition of the population, and policy changes that impact access to health care. Several such policy changes occurred in 2014, when many provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act went into effect.
- Between 2014 and 2015, the increase in the percentage of the population covered by health insurance was due to an increase in the rates of both private and government coverage. The rate of private coverage increased by 1.2 percentage points to 67.2 percent in 2015, and the government coverage rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 37.1 percent.
- Of the subtypes of health insurance, employment-based insurance covered the most people (55.7 percent of the population), followed by Medicaid (19.6 percent), Medicare (16.3 percent), direct-purchase (16.3 percent) and military health care (4.7 percent).
- Between 2014 and 2015, the greatest change in coverage was the change in direct-purchase health insurance, which increased by 1.7 percentage points to cover 16.3 percent of people for some or all of 2015 (up from 14.6 percent in 2014).
- In 2015, the uninsured rate for children younger than age 19 was 5.3 percent, down from 6.2 percent in 2014.
- In 2015, the uninsured rate for children younger than age 19 in poverty (7.5 percent) was higher than the uninsured rate for children not in poverty (4.8 percent).
Age
- For the second year in a row, the percentage of people without health insurance coverage dropped for every single year of age under 65, according to the American Community Survey.
- For the second year in a row, the percentage of people without health insurance coverage dropped for every single year of age under 65, according to the American Community Survey.
Race and Hispanic Origin
- Between 2014 and 2015, the overall rate of health insurance coverage increased for most race and Hispanic origin groups. Hispanics had the largest increase (3.6 percentage points), followed by Asians (1.9 percentage points) and non-Hispanic whites (0.9 percentage points).
- In 2015, non-Hispanic whites had the lowest uninsured rate among race and Hispanic origin groups, at 6.7 percent. The uninsured rates for blacks and Asians were higher than for non-Hispanic whites, at 11.1 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively. Hispanics had the highest uninsured rate in 2015, at 16.2 percent.
- Between 2014 and 2015, the overall rate of health insurance coverage increased for most race and Hispanic origin groups. Hispanics had the largest increase (3.6 percentage points), followed by Asians (1.9 percentage points) and non-Hispanic whites (0.9 percentage points).
- In 2015, non-Hispanic whites had the lowest uninsured rate among race and Hispanic origin groups, at 6.7 percent. The uninsured rates for blacks and Asians were higher than for non-Hispanic whites, at 11.1 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively. Hispanics had the highest uninsured rate in 2015, at 16.2 percent.
States
- According to the American Community Survey, during 2015, the state with the lowest percentage of people without health insurance at the time of the interview was Massachusetts (2.8 percent), while the highest uninsured rate was for Texas (17.1 percent).
- The American Community Survey also showed that between 2014 and 2015, the uninsured rate decreased in 47 states and the District of Columbia. The declines for the states ranged from 0.5 percentage points (Massachusetts) to 3.9 percentage points (California). Three states (North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming) did not experience a statistically significant change in their uninsured rate.
- According to the American Community Survey, during 2015, the state with the lowest percentage of people without health insurance at the time of the interview was Massachusetts (2.8 percent), while the highest uninsured rate was for Texas (17.1 percent).
- The American Community Survey also showed that between 2014 and 2015, the uninsured rate decreased in 47 states and the District of Columbia. The declines for the states ranged from 0.5 percentage points (Massachusetts) to 3.9 percentage points (California). Three states (North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming) did not experience a statistically significant change in their uninsured rate.
State and Local Estimates from the American Community Survey
2015 Drop in Poverty is Largest on Record Since 1999
Estimates released today from the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) show the official poverty rate in the United States declined to 13.5 percent in 2015, a 1.2 percentage point drop from 2014. The last time poverty rates declined this much from year to year was from 1998 to 1999 – making this the largest decline in poverty rates over the past 16 years.
Since 1959, the first year for which the U.S. Census Bureau released poverty estimates, there has been only one year with a larger decline in poverty rates, 1966, when poverty declined by 2.6 percentage points following the implementation of a revised methodology for processing income data.
Between 2014 and 2015, poverty rates declined for many different demographic groups. Poverty rates fell for both males and females. In 2015, 12.2 percent of males were in poverty while 14.8 percent of females were in poverty.
Poverty rates declined for all three major age groups between 2014 and 2015. Poverty decreased to 12.4 percent for people aged 18 to 64, to 8.8 percent for people aged 65 and older, and declined to 19.7 percent for children under 18.
Poverty rates also declined for most racial and ethnic groups in the population. In 2015, the poverty rate for non-Hispanic whites declined to 9.1 percent. Poverty rates for Hispanics decreased to 21.4 percent in 2015 while the poverty rate for blacks fell to 24.1 percent. Asians did not experience a statistically significant change in their poverty rates between 2014 and 2015.
In 2015, poverty rates decreased in three of the four regions: the South, West and the Midwest. The Northeast did not experience a statistically significant change in the poverty rate between 2014 and 2015.
Statement From U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker on the Release of 2015 Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Statistics
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker today released the following statement on the release of the 2015 Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance statistics by the U.S. Census Bureau. The report indicated the median household income was $56,500 in 2015, up 5.2 percent from 2014, and the official poverty rate fell 1.2 percent from 2014, to 13.5 percent. In addition, more of the U.S. population was covered by health insurance at some point last year.
“Today’s income, poverty and health insurance data release provides solid proof that the President’s economic policies are improving the lives of Americans across our country. For the first time since the economic recession in 2007, household income increased at significant rates. Fewer people are living in poverty, and more than 90 percent of the population had health insurance for part or all of 2015, the highest level measured by the Census Bureau since they started collecting this data in 2008."
“All these improvements were broad-based across most demographic and socioeconomic groups, but we still have more work to do. Poverty rates for women and minorities are still too high relative to the rest of the population, average salaries for women working full time is still only 80 percent of their male counterparts, and 29 million people are still without health insurance. We are committed to continuing our efforts to improve all these important areas.”
“All these improvements were broad-based across most demographic and socioeconomic groups, but we still have more work to do. Poverty rates for women and minorities are still too high relative to the rest of the population, average salaries for women working full time is still only 80 percent of their male counterparts, and 29 million people are still without health insurance. We are committed to continuing our efforts to improve all these important areas.”
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IMF. 13/09/2016. Making Globalization Work for All
Thank you for your kind introduction, John, and thank you, Bill Robson and the C.D. Howe Institute, for your invitation and for hosting this wonderful event today.
I am grateful for the opportunity to deliver a lecture in honor of Sylvia Ostry, the great Canadian economist and policymaker, and above all, the woman pioneer who broke into the closed world of high finance and sherpa-dom that still is largely a men’s world.
Dr. Ostry, who is right here in the audience, succeeded by setting the highest standards, not only for economists but for all those who believe that public service is more than just a job.
Sylvia, I would like to start off my remarks today with something important you once said: “We have one asset, and that’s people.” This message not only reflects Canada’s commitment to inclusiveness and openness, but it also captures the essence of policymaking. And as I will argue today, these issues are deeply intertwined.
Openness and international cooperation has always been part of Canada’s DNA. Your country has been one of the IMF’s strongest partners, with an incredibly positive influence on our institution and other member countries.
The ability of countries to rise above narrow self-interest has brought unprecedented economic progress over the past 70 years.
Conflicts have diminished, diseases have been eradicated, poverty has been reduced, and life expectancy has increased around the world. To paraphrase John Maynard Keynes, one of the IMF’s founding fathers: “The brotherhood of man has become more than a slogan.”
But progress has not come for everybody at the same pace. There is no doubt that the transformation of our economies has also brought dislocation and hardship.
Structural change caused by globalization and technological change has deeply affected some sectors and industries—while benefitting society as a whole. Concerns over wages, jobs, and future prospects are real and pressing for those who are not well-equipped to thrive in this new world.
This is not the first time we face this challenge. From the days of the bronze age to the industrial revolution and beyond, our ancestors have dealt with the spread of new technologies and the need to adapt. Debates about trade and access to foreign goods are as old as society itself.
But history clearly tells us that closing borders or increasing protectionism is not the way to go. Many countries have tried this route, and just as many have failed. Instead, we need to pursue policies that extend the benefits of openness and integration while alleviating their side effects.
We need to make globalization work for all. That is the focus of my remarks today.
1. Globalization—the balance sheet
Let me start with the benefits of integration—the bringing together of trade, migration, capital flows, and technology. This integration has delivered tangible—real—benefits for most people and most countries.
Real benefits
Emerging and developing economies have been the prime beneficiaries of economic openness. According to the World Bank, trade has helped reduce by half the proportion of the global population living in extreme poverty (1990-2010).
China, for instance, saw a phenomenal drop in its extreme poverty rate—from 36 percent at the end of the 1990s to 6 percent in 2011. [1] Another example is Vietnam, which—in a single generation—moved from being one of the world’s poorest nations to middle-income status—which has allowed for increased investments in health and education.
Today Vietnam can be proud of the fact that it ranks well above most of its richer peers in basic science, math, and reading skills. Its overall score in the latest OECD survey of 15-year olds was higher than that of France, Germany, the UK, and the US. [2]
But even in advanced economies, economic integration has lifted living standards—because of a more efficient allocation of capital, productivity increases, and lower prices for consumers. Research on the consumer benefits suggests that trade has roughly doubled the real incomes for a typical household. And for the poorest households, trade has raised real incomes by more than 150 percent. [3]
Along with higher incomes, millions of new jobs were created that tend to pay relatively higher wages. In the US, for instance, workers in export-intensive industries earn a premium perhaps as high as 15 percent over other industries. [4]
In the European Union, more than 30 million jobs—that is, one in every seven—depends on exports to the rest of the world. And in Canada, international trade makes up two-thirds of GDP.
Canada is also a prime example of the benefits of migration. By welcoming about a quarter million migrants per year—and by opening their homes and hearts to refugees—Canadians are supporting growth, rejuvenating their workforce, and adding to the richness and diversity of their society.
As the economist and Nobel laureate, Amartya Sen, put it: global economic integration “ has enriched the world scientifically and culturally, and benefited many people economically as well”. Many people would agree with that—but it is not the whole story.
Real side effects
The historic events of the early 1990s, when China, India, and the former communist countries entered into the global trading system, had far-reaching effects. The size of the global workforce effectively doubled, putting downward pressure on wages, especially for lower-skilled workers in advanced economies.
In the US, competition from low-wage countries has been one of the factors that have contributed to a decline in manufacturing employment, along with a wave of automation.[5] And this has not been spread evenly across the whole economy, but has been concentrated in some local labor markets that have faced deep, long-lasting effects from overseas competition. [6]
Many have also underestimated the globalization of capital. Between 1980 and 2007, global capital flows increased more than 25-fold, compared with an eight-fold expansion in global trade. This has underpinned investment, especially in emerging economies. But it has also opened the door to financial contagion and concerns about the stability of financial systems.
And lastly, growing inequality in wealth, income, and opportunity in many countries has added to a groundswell of discontent, especially in the industrialized world—a growing sense among some citizens that they “lack control,” that the system is somehow against them.
Financial institutions are being seen as unaccountable to society. Tax systems allow multinational companies and wealthy individuals not to pay what many would consider a fair share. Corruption remains endemic. And there is the challenge from uncontrolled migration flows, contributing to economic and cultural anxieties.
These concerns need to be addressed. How can we maintain the benefits from globalization while sharing them more widely? What can governments do?
2. What can governments do?
The first order of business is for governments to establish a positive environment for growth. This provides additional income to be distributed, as well as room for policy initiatives.
Unfortunately, growth has been too low for too long: 2016 is set to be the fifth consecutive year with global GDP growth below 3.7 percent, the average for nearly two decades before the 2008 financial crisis.
Growth has also been unequal: in major advanced economies, incomes for the top 10 percent increased by 40 percent in the past two decades, while growing only modestly at the bottom.[7] If we are to build support for open economies and open societies, we have to do better.
How? We know that sound macroeconomic policies and reforms lift productivity and potential growth. We also know that these policies and reforms need to be tailored to achieve the best possible results.
For example, when it comes to support for demand, central banks have done the heavy lifting in recent years. Now fiscal policy needs to play a bigger role in countries that have additional spending headroom. Canada is, in fact, leading the way by stepping up its infrastructure investment and by increasing transfers to families with children.
When it comes to economic reforms, policymakers need to do the right thing in the right sequence—and do it now. Euro Area countries, for example, can lift productivity by accelerating structural reforms—lowering barriers to entry in the services sector, including professional services, and stepping up research and development.
But to maximize the benefits of these structural reforms, they need to be combined with the right fiscal and monetary policies—a three-pronged approach. In the mid-1990s, for example, the Netherlands combined labor tax cuts with major reforms in labor and product markets—resulting in a period of strong growth.
And right now, of course, the Canadian government is following in the same path of taking bold action on fiscal policy and economic reforms.
I have made the case for this strong three-pronged policy approach to our membership and to the leaders at the recent G-20 Summit—and I hope that many countries follow Prime Minister Trudeau’s global leadership. The more countries adopt it, the greater the mutual benefits for growth.
More support and greater fairness
But how to make growth more inclusive and benefit workers across all economic sectors is a question that does not lend itself to the same clear-cut policy message. It is a challenge of a different order, because it has to do with economic incentives, but also with social, regional, and often ethnic and cultural factors that are hard to overcome—and require country-specific solutions.
Let me speak to the economic policies involved, without having any illusions about the difficulties of the task at hand. The IMF has recommended combinations of the following policy tools to its member countries over the past years:
First—step up direct support for lower-skilled workers . This means greater public investment in education, re-training, and facilitating occupational and geographic mobility.
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For example, the German apprenticeship system is often cited as a model that has provided generations of German youth a successful path into skilled work without a college education.
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Similarly, expanding vocational training partnerships between industry and educational institutions would help retool the labor force and boost employment in countries such as Canada, France, and the United Kingdom.
Second—strengthen social safety nets by providing appropriate unemployment insurance, health benefits, and portable pensions—and by stepping up tax and income policies.
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The US, for instance, could cushion labor market dislocations by increasing the federal minimum wage and expanding the earned income tax credit.
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Another example is the Nordic countries, where workers have only limited job protection, but they benefit from generous unemployment insurance that requires jobseekers to find new positions. This model makes the labor market more flexible—which is good for growth—while safeguarding the interests of workers.[8]
Third—boost economic fairness to rebuild trust and bolster support for reforms.
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This means, for example, addressing the lack of vigorous competition in key areas. Think of major industries—from banking to pharmaceuticals to social media—where some advanced economies are facing large increases in market concentration. [9]
-
Boosting fairness also means clamping down on tax evasion and preventing the artificial shifting of business profits to low-tax locations. The IMF is working on this issue intensively, often in close collaboration with the OECD, the United Nations, and the World Bank.
These measures can help create a positive feedback loop: stronger, more inclusive growth reduces economic inequality and increases support for further reforms and openness.
But as I said earlier, these policies are not sufficient—depending on each country’s situation, they need to be accompanied by steps to facilitate equal access to opportunity through education and health care, reduce ethnic and gender discrimination, and foster greater mobility, just to name a few.
3. Step up global cooperation
Let me come to my last point.
Perhaps the most important policy insight from the past 70 years is that countries and governments can do a lot to boost economic welfare, but they cannot do it alone.
As Martin Luther King once said, “ We are caught in an inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly.”
Reinvigorate trade
Nowhere are the issues of economic interdependency greater than in the area of trade.
For two decades before the 2000’s, global trade regularly grew by 7 percent, or twice the rate of the world economy. Today, however, trade growth isbelow that of the global economy—at about 2 percent. [10]
Moreover, there is a growing risk of politicians seeking office by promising to “get tough” with foreign trade partners through punitive tariffs or other restrictions on trade.
I am deeply concerned about this—not only because I was a Minister of Trade, but because trade has been at the heart of the IMF’s mandate for more than 70 years.
And for good reason. A stronger trade engine means more competitive industries that have greater incentives for innovation. It means technological innovation gets transmitted in ways that lower prices for consumers and companies.
To illustrate the consumer benefits, one analyst recently compared products listed in the 1971 edition of the Sears-Roebuck catalogue with comparable modern-day items. He found that almost everything in its pages was made in US and that, after adjusting for inflation, products are significantly cheaper today.
For example, a three-speed air conditioner was advertised for $139.95, which would come to more than $820 adjusted for inflation. Today Frigidaire[11] offers a model with the same features for $139.99. [12]
As a result, the average American worker today works only about 17 weeks to live at the annual income level of the average worker in 1915. We have seen similar progress in all countries in recent decades, and this is what trade is about: spreading and sharing economic welfare gains from better technology across the global population.[13]
New Deals
Against this background, recent news about multilateral trade negotiations have been quite discouraging. But I strongly believe that we can rebuild momentum for trade reforms if the benefits are properly explained, and if we engage in the policies to achieve stronger and more equitable growth that I outlined earlier.
There are also new 21st-century issues to explore—such as trade in services. This trade is already worth $5 trillion a year, or two-thirds of global GDP.[14] However, the barriers to trade in services are extremely high—equivalent to tariffs of some 30 to 50 percent. [15]
One way forward would be to push for so-called “plurilateral” trade agreements—that is, deals among a limited numbers of like-minded countries that agree to work within the framework of the World Trade Organization. Such deals would be open—on the same terms—to all WTO members.
Similarly, there is room to boost trade in digital products, for example, by establishing freedom of data flows that could help realize the full potential of global e-commerce.
Conclusion
Some 50 years ago, the Canadian philosopher Marshall McLuhan described how technology had shrunk the world into a “global village”.
Today’s generation of leaders and policymakers will be measured by their ability to create a global village on a human scale—a place where people can find a safe and prosperous home for themselves and their children.
The IMF—with its analytical and financial resources—will continue to push for and help in this endeavor.
Economic openness and collaboration is in our DNA, too. It is the very reason for which the IMF was founded.
Thank you very much.
[3] Pablo Fagjelbaum and Amit Khandelwal, 2016, “Measuring the Unequal Gains from Trade,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016.
[5] Justin R. Pierce and Peter K. Schott: “The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment”, NBER Working Paper , December 2012.
[6] David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson: “The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade”, NBER Working Paper, February 2016.
[9] Jason Furman: “Benefits of Competition and Indicators of Market Power”, US President’s Council of Economic Advisers Issue Brief, April 2016.
[10] IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
[11] Frigidaire is the American consumer and commercial home appliances brand subsidiary of European parent company Electrolux.
[12] Rob Cox: “Cuts like a knife”, Reuters, Breaking Views Colum.
[13] Autor, 2014, as quoted in F&D, September 2016.
[14] WTO figure.
For example, the German apprenticeship system is often cited as a model that has provided generations of German youth a successful path into skilled work without a college education.
Similarly, expanding vocational training partnerships between industry and educational institutions would help retool the labor force and boost employment in countries such as Canada, France, and the United Kingdom.
The US, for instance, could cushion labor market dislocations by increasing the federal minimum wage and expanding the earned income tax credit.
Another example is the Nordic countries, where workers have only limited job protection, but they benefit from generous unemployment insurance that requires jobseekers to find new positions. This model makes the labor market more flexible—which is good for growth—while safeguarding the interests of workers.[8]
This means, for example, addressing the lack of vigorous competition in key areas. Think of major industries—from banking to pharmaceuticals to social media—where some advanced economies are facing large increases in market concentration. [9]
Boosting fairness also means clamping down on tax evasion and preventing the artificial shifting of business profits to low-tax locations. The IMF is working on this issue intensively, often in close collaboration with the OECD, the United Nations, and the World Bank.
[3] Pablo Fagjelbaum and Amit Khandelwal, 2016, “Measuring the Unequal Gains from Trade,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016.
[5] Justin R. Pierce and Peter K. Schott: “The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment”, NBER Working Paper , December 2012.
[6] David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson: “The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade”, NBER Working Paper, February 2016.
[9] Jason Furman: “Benefits of Competition and Indicators of Market Power”, US President’s Council of Economic Advisers Issue Brief, April 2016.
[10] IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
[11] Frigidaire is the American consumer and commercial home appliances brand subsidiary of European parent company Electrolux.
[12] Rob Cox: “Cuts like a knife”, Reuters, Breaking Views Colum.
[13] Autor, 2014, as quoted in F&D, September 2016.
[14] WTO figure.
IBGE. 13/09/2016. Vendas do varejo variam -0,3% em julho
| Período | Varejo | Varejo Ampliado | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume de vendas | Receita nominal | Volume de vendas | Receita nominal | |
Julho/Junho*
|
-0,3
|
0,7
|
-0,5
|
0,7
|
Média móvel trimestral*
|
-0,3
|
0,7
|
-0,4
|
0,5
|
Julho 2016 / Julho 2015
|
-5,3
|
6,7
|
-10,2
|
-1,3
|
Acumulado 2016
|
-6,7
|
4,9
|
-9,4
|
-0,8
|
Acumulado 12 meses
|
-6,8
|
3,7
|
-10,3
|
-2,1
|
* ajuste sazonal
Em julho de 2016, o comércio varejista nacional registrou variação de -0,3% no volume de vendas, após avanço de 0,3% em junho, enquanto para receita nominal, a variação de 0,7% foi a quarta taxa positiva consecutiva, ambas as comparações em relação ao mês imediatamente anterior, na série livre de influências sazonais. Com isso, na média móvel trimestral, o volume de vendas variou -0,3%, enquanto a receita nominal permaneceu no campo positivo (0,7%).
No confronto com julho de 2015, na série sem ajuste sazonal, o total do varejo nacional apontou, em termos de volume de vendas, queda de 5,3%, acumulando redução de 6,7% nos sete primeiros meses de 2016. A taxa anualizada, indicador acumulado nos últimos doze meses, com recuo de 6,8% em julho de 2016, assinalou a perda mais intensa dessa série histórica (iniciada em 2001) para essa comparação. Para esses mesmos indicadores, a receita nominal de vendas prossegue sinalizando com variações positivas: 6,7% frente a julho de 2015, 4,9% para o acumulado no ano, e 3,7% no acumulado dos últimos 12 meses.
O comércio varejista ampliado (varejo e mais as atividades de veículos, motos, partes e peças e de material de construção) registrou variação de -0,5% em relação ao mês imediatamente anterior (série com ajuste) para o volume de vendas, enquanto a receita nominal, com taxa de 0,7%, permanece no campo positivo pelo terceiro mês consecutivo. Em relação a julho de 2015, o volume de vendas registrou queda de 10,2%. Para as taxas acumuladas, os resultados foram de -9,4% no ano e de -10,3% nos últimos 12 meses.
Seis das oito atividades pesquisadas apresentam resultados negativos
A variação de -0,3% no volume de vendas, na passagem de junho para julho de 2016, na série com ajuste sazonal, teve predomínio de resultados negativos, alcançando seis dos oito segmentos observados no comércio varejista. As atividades de Hipermercados, supermercados, produtos alimentícios, bebidas e fumo (-0,3%) e de Combustíveis e lubrificantes (-0,3%), que juntas respondem por cerca de 60% da taxa global, registraram a mesma variação do total do varejo (-0,3%). As demais atividades, com recuo no volume de vendas, registraram taxas negativas acima da média nacional: Tecidos, vestuário e calçados (-5,8%); Livros, jornais, revistas e papelaria (-1,2%); Móveis e eletrodomésticos (-1,0%), Outros artigos de uso pessoal e doméstico (-0,9%). Por outro lado, Equipamentos e material para escritório, informática e comunicação (5,9%) e Artigos farmacêuticos, médicos, ortopédicos, de perfumaria e cosméticos (0,7%) mostraram avanço no volume de vendas em relação a junho de 2016.
Considerando o comércio varejista ampliado, a variação foi de -0,5%, quinta taxa negativa consecutiva para esse tipo de comparação. Este resultado foi influenciado pela redução de 2,5% em Material de construção e de -0,3% em Veículos e motos, partes e peças, ambas comparações frente a junho de 2016.
TABELA 1
BRASIL - INDICADORES DO VOLUME DE VENDAS DO COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA E COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA AMPLIADO
SEGUNDO GRUPOS DE ATIVIDADES: PMC - Julho 2016
| ATIVIDADES | MÊS/MÊS ANTERIOR (1) | MÊS/IGUAL MÊS DO ANO ANTERIOR | ACUMULADO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taxa de Variação (%) | Taxa de Variação (%) | Taxa de Variação (%) | ||||||
MAI
|
JUN
|
JUL
|
MAI
|
JUN
|
JUL
|
NO ANO
|
12 MESES
| |
COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA (2)
|
-0,8
|
0,3
|
-0,3
|
-9,0
|
-4,8
|
-5,3
|
-6,7
|
-6,8
|
1 - Combustíveis e lubrificantes
|
-0,3
|
-0,4
|
-0,3
|
-10,8
|
-9,0
|
-9,9
|
-9,8
|
-9,8
|
2 - Hiper, supermercados, prods. alimentícios, bebidas e fumo
|
0,2
|
0,3
|
-0,3
|
-5,5
|
-1,7
|
-0,1
|
-2,9
|
-3,1
|
2.1 - Super e hipermercados
|
0,1
|
-0,4
|
-0,1
|
-5,3
|
-2,6
|
-0,9
|
-3,1
|
-3,3
|
3 - Tecidos, vest. e calçados
|
1,6
|
0,6
|
-5,8
|
-13,6
|
-3,9
|
-14,2
|
-11,6
|
-11,8
|
4 - Móveis e eletrodomésticos
|
-1,5
|
-0,4
|
-1,0
|
-15,2
|
-10,7
|
-12,4
|
-14,4
|
-15,8
|
4.1 - Móveis
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-12,1
|
-12,4
|
-12,8
|
-12,5
|
-16,4
|
4.2 - Eletrodomésticos
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-16,5
|
-9,9
|
-12,2
|
-15,2
|
-15,5
|
5 - Artigos farmaceuticos, med., ortop. e de perfumaria
|
-0,8
|
-0,1
|
0,7
|
-2,5
|
-2,1
|
-3,2
|
-0,3
|
0,2
|
6 - Livros, jornais, rev. e papelaria
|
-2,4
|
0,5
|
-1,2
|
-24,4
|
-18,3
|
-18,6
|
-17,2
|
-16,2
|
7 - Equip. e mat. para escritório informatica e comunicação
|
-2,1
|
-3,4
|
5,9
|
-14,4
|
-18,3
|
-12,9
|
-15,8
|
-14,6
|
8 - Outros arts. de uso pessoal e doméstico
|
-2,3
|
0,8
|
-0,9
|
-15,4
|
-8,4
|
-11,6
|
-12,2
|
-9,6
|
COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA AMPLIADO (3)
|
-0,4
|
-0,2
|
-0,5
|
-10,2
|
-8,1
|
-10,2
|
-9,4
|
-10,3
|
9 - Veículos e motos, partes e peças
|
0,6
|
-1,3
|
-0,3
|
-13,2
|
-15,2
|
-20,0
|
-14,7
|
-17,7
|
10- Material de Construção
|
-0,1
|
1,2
|
-2,5
|
-10,6
|
-9,6
|
-12,6
|
-12,9
|
-12,9
|
Fonte: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Séries com ajuste sazonal. (2) O indicador do comércio varejista é composto pelos resultados das atividades numeradas de 1 a 8.
(3) O indicador do comércio varejista ampliado é composto pelos resultados das atividades numeradas de 1 a 10
(1) Séries com ajuste sazonal. (2) O indicador do comércio varejista é composto pelos resultados das atividades numeradas de 1 a 8.
(3) O indicador do comércio varejista ampliado é composto pelos resultados das atividades numeradas de 1 a 10
Na comparação frente a julho de 2015, o total do comércio varejista recuou 5,3% com perfil disseminado de resultados negativos alcançando todas as oito atividades investigadas. Os resultados, por ordem de importância na formação da taxa global, foram: Móveis e eletrodomésticos (-12,4%) e Outros artigos de uso pessoal e doméstico (-11,6%) dividem o principal impacto negativo no resultado de julho, seguidos por Combustíveis e lubrificantes
(-9,9%) e Tecidos, vestuário e calçados (-14,2%) e, exercendo menores influências negativas na formação do resultado global do varejo, figuram Livros, jornais, revistas e papelaria (-18,6%); Equipamentos e materiais para escritório, informática e comunicação
(-12,9%); e Artigos farmacêuticos, médicos, ortopédicos e de perfumaria (-3,2%). O volume de vendas do setor de Hipermercados, supermercados, produtos alimentícios, bebidas e fumo (-0,1%) ficou praticamente estável frente a julho de 2015 e não pressionou, este mês, o indicador global das vendas no varejo.
(-9,9%) e Tecidos, vestuário e calçados (-14,2%) e, exercendo menores influências negativas na formação do resultado global do varejo, figuram Livros, jornais, revistas e papelaria (-18,6%); Equipamentos e materiais para escritório, informática e comunicação
(-12,9%); e Artigos farmacêuticos, médicos, ortopédicos e de perfumaria (-3,2%). O volume de vendas do setor de Hipermercados, supermercados, produtos alimentícios, bebidas e fumo (-0,1%) ficou praticamente estável frente a julho de 2015 e não pressionou, este mês, o indicador global das vendas no varejo.
TABELA 3
BRASIL - COMPOSIÇÃO DA TAXA MENSAL DO COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA,
POR ATIVIDADES: PMC - Julho 2016
(Indicadores de volume de vendas)
BRASIL - COMPOSIÇÃO DA TAXA MENSAL DO COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA,
POR ATIVIDADES: PMC - Julho 2016
(Indicadores de volume de vendas)
| Atividades | COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA | COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA AMPLIADO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taxa de variação (%) | Composição absoluta da taxa (p.p.) | Taxa de variação (%) | Composição absoluta da taxa (p.p.) | |
Taxa Global
|
-5,3
|
-5,3
|
-10,2
|
-10,2
|
1 - Combustíveis e lubrificantes
|
-9,9
|
-1,0
|
-9,9
|
-0,7
|
2 - Hiper, supermercados, prods. alimentícios, bebidas e fumo
|
-0,1
|
0,0
|
-0,1
|
0,0
|
3 - Tecidos, vest. e calçados
|
-14,2
|
-1,1
|
-14,2
|
-0,7
|
4 - Móveis e eletrodomésticos
|
-12,4
|
-1,3
|
-12,4
|
-0,8
|
5 - Artigos farmaceuticos, med., ortop. e de perfumaria
|
-3,2
|
-0,3
|
-3,2
|
-0,2
|
6 - Livros, jornais, rev. e papelaria
|
-18,6
|
-0,1
|
-18,6
|
-0,1
|
7 - Equip. e mat. para escritório informatica e comunicação
|
-12,9
|
-0,2
|
-12,9
|
-0,1
|
8 - Outros arts. de uso pessoal e doméstico
|
-11,6
|
-1,3
|
-11,6
|
-0,8
|
9 - Veículos e motos, partes e peças
|
-
|
-20,0
|
-5,7
| |
10- Material de Construção
|
-
|
-12,6
|
-1,2
| |
Fonte: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Nota: A composição da taxa mensal corresponde à participação dos resultados setoriais na formação da taxa global.
Nota: A composição da taxa mensal corresponde à participação dos resultados setoriais na formação da taxa global.
Com recuo de 12,4% no volume de vendas em relação a julho de 2015, a atividade de Móveis e eletrodomésticos exerceu o maior impacto negativo na formação da taxa global do varejo, acumulando nos primeiros sete meses do ano taxa de -14,4% e nos últimos 12 meses, de -15,8%. Por se tratar de uma atividade cujas vendas são associadas às condições de crédito, o comportamento deste setor vem sendo afetado pela elevação dos custos de financiamento.
O segmento de Outros artigos de uso pessoal e doméstico, com queda de 11,6% no confronto com julho de 2015, também exerceu a maior participação negativa no resultado geral do comércio varejista. Nos acumulados dos sete meses do ano e dos últimos 12 meses as taxas foram, respectivamente, -12,2% e -9,6%. Esse segmento contempla um mix diversificado de itens, muitos deles de reposição doméstica, tais como artigos do lar, cama, mesa e banho, isto é, um perfil de consumo que pode ser postergado.
O comércio de Combustíveis e lubrificantes, com variação de -9,9% no volume de vendas, em relação a julho de 2015, foi responsável pelo segundo maior impacto no resultado geral do varejo. Em termos de desempenho acumulado, as taxas de variação ficaram em -9,8% tanto para os sete primeiros meses do ano quanto para os últimos 12 meses. O menor ritmo da economia e os preços dos combustíveis evoluindo acima da inflação geral são alguns dos fatores que vêm influenciando o comportamento desse segmento.
O segmento de Tecidos, vestuário e calçados, que apresentou queda no volume de vendas de -14,2% com relação a igual mês do ano anterior, representou a terceira maior contribuição negativa à taxa global do varejo, mesmo com os preços do setor de vestuário crescendo abaixo da inflação geral. Em termos acumulados, os resultados foram de -11,6% para os sete primeiros meses do ano e de -11,8% para os últimos 12 meses.
O segmento de Artigos farmacêuticos, médicos, ortopédicos e de perfumaria, com redução de 3,2%, exerceu a quarta contribuição para o resultado geral. Em termos de variação acumulada, as taxas foram de -0,3% no ano, mas a comparação nos últimos 12 meses ainda permanece no campo positivo (0,2%). A correção dos preços dos produtos farmacêuticos acima do índice geral de preços é o principal fator que explica o recente desempenho negativo do setor
O segmento de Equipamentos e materiais para escritório, informática e comunicação, responsável pela quinta contribuição negativa na formação da taxa global do comércio varejista, registrou variação de -12,9% no volume de vendas na relação julho de 2016 contra julho de 2015. Os resultados nas vendas em termos acumulados foram: -15,8% no acumulado do ano e de -14,6% nos últimos 12 meses, taxas estas bem abaixo da média do varejo.
A atividade de Livros, jornais, revistas e papelaria, com taxa de -18,6% no volume de vendas sobre julho de 2015, respondeu pela sexta contribuição no resultado global. Nos acumulados dos sete meses do ano e dos últimos 12 meses as taxas foram, respectivamente, -17,2% e -16,2%. Os preços dos produtos de papelaria, com crescimento acumulado em 12 meses acima do índice geral de preços explicam em parte a trajetória declinante desta atividade, além da restrição orçamentária das famílias e, no que tange a jornais e revistas, por certa substituição dos produtos impressos pelos de meio eletrônico.
Hipermercados, supermercados, produtos alimentícios, bebidas e fumo, com variação de -0,1% em julho sobre igual mês do ano anterior, não pressionou o índice geral. Esta atividade vem tendo seu desempenho influenciado pela redução de massa salarial real habitual das pessoas ocupadas, além da influência do comportamento dos preços do grupo alimentação no domicílio que crescem bem acima do índice geral acumulado em 12 meses. Em termos de resultados acumulados, as taxas de variação foram: -2,9% para o acumulado nos sete primeiros meses do ano e de -3,1% para os últimos 12 meses.
Considerando o comércio varejista ampliado, que inclui além do varejo as atividades de Veículos, motos, partes e peças e de Material de construção, registrou em julho de 2016 queda de 10,2% no volume de vendas, comparado com o mesmo mês do ano anterior. Este desempenho refletiu, sobretudo, o comportamento das vendas de Veículos, motos, partes e peças, que apresentou recuo de 20,0% sobre julho de 2015. As taxas acumuladas desta atividade foram de -14,7% em sete meses e de 17,7% nos últimos 12 meses. Quanto ao segmento de Material de construção, as variações para o volume de vendas foram de -12,6% sobre julho de 2015, e taxas de -12,9% tanto para o acumulado em sete meses e nos últimos 12 meses. Em ambos segmentos, os resultados foram influenciados pelo menor ritmo da atividade econômica, menor oferta de crédito e pelo comprometimento da renda familiar.
Volume de vendas cai em 16 das 27 unidades da federação
Em julho de 2016, dezesseis das 27 unidades da federação mostraram recuo no volume de vendas do varejo, quando comparado ao mês imediatamente anterior, na série com ajuste sazonal. As taxas negativas variaram entre -3,5% no Mato Grosso e -0,1% em Minas Gerais. Em Sergipe, o volume de vendas manteve-se estável nessa comparação. Por outro lado, com aumento no varejo na passagem de junho para julho de 2016, destacam-se: Roraima (4,0%) e Amazonas (3,4%).
Na comparação com julho de 2015, a redução no volume de vendas também teve perfil disseminado, alcançando praticamente todas as 27 Unidades da Federação, com exceção de Roraima (3,2%). Os destaques, em termos de magnitude de taxa negativa a dois dígitos, foram: Amapá (-18,9%) e Pará (-15,5%). Quanto à participação na composição da taxa do comércio varejista, destacaram-se, pela ordem: São Paulo (-3,0%), Rio de Janeiro (-5,0%) e Bahia (-13,4%).
Considerando o varejo ampliado, a redução de 10,2% em relação a julho de 2015 foi acompanhada por todos os 27 estados da federação, com destaque, em termos de magnitude, para Amapá com recuo de 17,1%. O desempenho negativo de São Paulo (-7,9%) e Rio de Janeiro (-13,0%), Rio Grande do Sul (-10,0%) e Minas Gerais (-7,9%) foram os principais impactos sobre a formação da taxa global do varejo ampliado.
DOCUMENTO: http://saladeimprensa.ibge.gov.br/noticias?view=noticia&id=1&busca=1&idnoticia=3255
CNC. 13/09/2016. Comércio deve encerrar 2016 em seu pior momento histórico. Segmento de vestuário teve queda de 5,8% nas vendas em julho
Apesar da queda menos intensa nas vendas do comércio nos três meses encerrados em julho (-1,0%), o cenário ainda não é animador para o varejo, que deve amargar seu pior resultado histórico. A avaliação da Confederação Nacional do Comércio de Bens, Serviços e Turismo (CNC) foi feita após a divulgação dos dados de julho da Pesquisa Mensal de Comércio (PMC), divulgada em 13 de setembro pelo IBGE.
“Mesmo diante de expectativas menos desfavoráveis, dificilmente o varejo deixará de registrar seus piores resultados históricos. Para igualar 2015 – o pior ano do varejo até então –, as quedas nas vendas ante o mesmo período do ano passado não poderão ser maiores do que -0,9% e -7,5%, respectivamente”, afirmou o economista da CNC Fabio Bentes.
A percepção de que a crise vem lentamente perdendo força a reboque da suave desaceleração da inflação e da retomada gradual da confiança de consumidores e de empresários levou a CNC a revisar suas expectativas de queda do varejo restrito de -5,4% para -5,2% e do varejo ampliado de -9,8% para -9,4% ao final de 2016.
Queda do dólar e aumento da confiança influenciaram resultado de julho
A queda do dólar nos três meses encerrados em julho (-8,6%) e a reação da confiança dos consumidores, embora ainda insuficientes para permitir uma recuperação do setor, têm viabilizado perdas menores nos últimos meses.
O destaque negativo de julho ficou por conta do ramo de vestuário e acessórios, que acusou queda de 5,8% em relação ao mês anterior – o pior resultado deste segmento nessa base comparativa desde dezembro de 2014 (-6,8%). Outro segmento a sofrer perdas expressivas foi o de móveis e eletrodomésticos (-1,0%). A despeito da evolução mais favorável dos preços, em ambos os casos, a tendência de alta no custo do crédito – com nove recordes de taxas de juros nos últimos doze meses – impossibilita qualquer recuperação no curto prazo.
DOCUMENTO: http://www.cnc.org.br/sites/default/files/arquivos/analise_pmc_-_julho_2016.pdf
USP. FIPE. 13/09/2016. Inflação em São Paulo perde força, puxada por alimentos e saúde. IPC-Fipe passou de 0,11% em agosto para 0,05% na 1ª prévia de setembro. Ficaram mais caros, por outro lado, os preços de vestuário. Inflação de alimentos básicos chega a quase 50% no Sul de Minas, varginha. Inflação em São Paulo perdeu força no início de setembro.
Do G1, em São Paulo
A inflação na capital paulista, medida pelo Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC), avançou 0,05% na primeira prévia de setembro, após encerrar agosto com alta de 0,11%, segundo dados divulgados nesta terça-feira (13) pela Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (Fipe).
Subiram menos os preços relativos a alimentação (de 0,74% para 0,55%), saúde (de 1,41% para 0,69%). Ficaram mais baratos os preços relacionados a despesas pessoais (de 0,05% para -0,19%) e a educação (de -0,05% para -0,12%).
Por outro lado, caíram menos os valores de habitação (de - 0,57% para -0 ,40%). Ficaram mais caros, por outro lado, os preços de vestuário (de 0,21% para 0,36%).
O IPC-Fipe mede as variações quadrissemanais dos preços às famílias paulistanas com renda mensal entre 1 e 10 salários mínimos.
USP. FIPE. 13/09/2016. IPC-Fipe desacelera alta a 0,05% na 1ª quadrissemana de setembro
SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) de São Paulo avançou 0,05 por cento na primeira quadrissemana de setembro, após encerrar agosto com alta de 0,11 por cento, segundo dados divulgados nesta terça-feira pela Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (Fipe).
O IPC-Fipe mede as variações quadrissemanais dos preços às famílias paulistanas com renda mensal entre 1 e 10 salários mínimos.
(Por Camila Moreira)
MDIC. PORTAL UOL. AGÊNCIA ESTADO. 13/09/2016. Mudança no câmbio desafia exportador
Eduardo Laguna
O câmbio mais competitivo e a busca por mercados no exterior para escoar parte da produção não consumida pela economia doméstica em recessão produziram um crescimento de 12% no número de empresas exportadoras neste ano. Agora, no entanto, o real mais valorizado desafia esses novos participantes a se manterem no jogo.
Das 19,4 mil companhias que embarcaram produtos ao exterior nos últimos oito meses, 2,1 mil não exploravam rotas internacionais até um ano atrás, segundo balanço do Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços (MDIC). Na maioria, os novos exportadores são empresas pequenas - cujos embarques, desde janeiro, não chegam a US$ 1 milhão - que viram a oportunidade de despachar ao exterior produtos encalhados em estoque quando o dólar deu competitividade à produção nacional ao engatar trajetória de valorização a partir de julho de 2015.
Dos mais de R$ 4,00 do início do ano, o dólar ficou mais barato no embalo da melhora de humor do mercado com a troca de governo. Na média, o valor da moeda em agosto (R$ 3,21) foi o mais baixo dos últimos 14 meses, aproximando-se do patamar em que, para algumas empresas, as exportações deixam de ser competitivas e rentáveis.
Heitor Klein, presidente da Abicalçados, entidade que representa a indústria de calçados, diz que, com o dólar rondando a casa de R$ 3,20, a maioria dos associados não consegue mais formar preços para brigar com a concorrência asiática. Estados Unidos, França e a vizinha Argentina são os principais destinos do setor, que no ano passado exportou US$ 960 milhões, mas chegou a embarcar US$ 1,5 bilhão em 2010.
"No início do ano, havia confiança de que o câmbio se acomodaria em R$ 3,60 e as empresas posicionaram preços com base nessa taxa. Agora, há uma dificuldade grande para elas honrarem negócios fechados durante feiras realizadas na Europa em julho", lamenta Klein. "A tendência é que passem a exportar menos porque ninguém quer vender com prejuízo."
O dólar recuou a um patamar "perigoso",segundo Fernando Pimentel, diretor-superintendente da Abit, entidade que abriga as empresas da indústria têxtil nacional. "Essas idas e vindas do câmbio são deletérias para se criar compromissos com o mercado mundial." Segundo ele, todos os mercados ficaram mais difíceis, mas a tendência é de que as empresas deixem, primeiro, aqueles destinos que demandam maior investimento.
Sem ter um câmbio que ajude a aliviar custos de produção em moeda forte, empresas que investiram em automação industrial têm mais condições de seguirem vivas na competição internacional do que aquelas que dependem de mão de obra intensiva, como ocorre, nas indústrias têxtil e de calçados.
As grandes empresas tendem a se dar melhor do que as pequenas, as primeiras a deixar as exportações quando o real entra em trajetória firme de apreciação, segundo Pimentel.
Produtos com elevado porcentual de conteúdo importado conseguem, em maior ou menor grau, equilibrar perdas. Montadoras de carros, assim como fabricantes de eletrônicos e de produtos de alta tecnologia, como a Embraer, fazem parte de um grupo onde insumos importados representam uma espécie de hedge (proteção) natural aos choques cambiais.
OMC. REUTERS. 13/09/2016. ENTREVISTA-Brasil deve recorrer à OMC contra tarifas dos EUA sobre importações de aço
Por Marcela Ayres e Alonso Soto
SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - O Brasil deverá recorrer à Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC) contra a decisão dos Estados Unidos de elevar taxas sobre importações de aço laminado do país, afirmou à Reuters o ministro da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços (MDIC), Marcos Pereira.
"A minha disposição é que a gente vá à OMC", disse o ministro em entrevista à Reuters, explicando que pediu para a Câmara de Comércio Exterior (Camex) analisar com urgência o caso envolvendo laminados a frio em sua próxima reunião, ainda sem data marcada. "Eu acredito que (a Camex) vai aprovar. O que eles estão fazendo lá não é legal", acrescentou.
Segundo o MDIC, a Comissão de Comércio Internacional dos EUA (ITC, na sigla em inglês) já acatou recomendação do Departamento de Comércio norte-americano para aplicação de medida antidumping contra os laminados a frio do Brasil. O departamento decidiu a favor da imposição das tarifas em março deste ano.
Na avaliação dos EUA, o aço laminado a frio brasileiro está sendo subsidiado por programas de promoção às exportações como o Reintegra, que ressarce resíduos tributários na cadeia de produção aos exportadores.
O MDIC prevê a publicação dessa decisão final da ITC até quarta-feira, e um prazo de até 8 dias para emissão da ordem de cobrança para os exportadores brasileiros de aço laminado a frio, cujas vendas para os EUA somaram 285 milhões de dólares no ano passado.
O produto, produzido por empresas como Usiminas, CSN e ArcelorMittal, é majoritariamente exportado para as indústrias automotiva e de eletrodomésticos.
Para os laminados a frio, a ITC definiu tarifas contra subsídio de 11,31 por cento para a CSN e de 11,09 por cento para a Usiminas.
Na segunda-feira, a ITC também votou pela aplicação de taxas às exportações brasileiras de aço laminado a quente, que tem maior peso para a pauta comercial brasileira. No ano passado, os embarques do produto somaram 1 bilhão de dólares.
A ITC definiu tarifas contra subsídios sobre laminados a quente de 3,9 a 11,3 por cento contra a maior parte das siderúrgicas do Brasil e da Coreia do Sul. As tarifas mais altas antidumping, de 34,3 por cento, foram impostas contra a Usiminas. Todas as outras siderúrgicas do Brasil terão pela frente tarifas de 33,1 por cento.
O ministério informou que também vai contestar na OMC a decisão da ITC sobre os laminados a quente.
RENOVAÇÃO DE FROTA
Durante a entrevista, o ministro do MDIC disse que o governo segue estudando um programa de renovação da frota automotiva que a princípio incluirá caminhões, veículos leves e motos com mais de 30 anos, mas ponderou que ainda não há uma formatação concluída e que os trabalhos podem demorar mais que o inicialmente previsto.
"Gostaria de concluir os estudos este ano, para apresentar este ano e quiçá já começar o programa ano que vem. Mas como o tempo está passando tão rápido, eu não sei se a gente vai conseguir", admitiu.
Questionado sobre o posicionamento do MDIC a respeito de eventual mudança no Reintegra para diminuir os impactos do programa para as contas públicas, Pereira disse ser a favor da manutenção das alíquotas já fixadas na legislação para garantir previsibilidade às empresas.
Atualmente em 0,1 por cento num esforço para elevar as receitas tributárias, a alíquota do Reintegra --que devolve parte da receita obtida com exportações de produtos industrializados para compensar impostos acumulados-- subirá para 2 por cento em 2017, para voltar a 3 por cento em 2018.
DÓLAR/ANÁLISE
BACEN. PORTAL G1. 13/09/2016. Dólar opera em alta em meio a anúncio de pacote de concessões. Na véspera, moeda recuou 0,94% frente ao real, cotada a R$ 3,2490. No acumulado de 2016 recua 17,7% frente ao real.
Do G1, em São Paulo
O dólar opera em alta em relação ao real nesta terça-feira (13), mesmo após discurso na véspera da diretora do Federal Reserve, banco central dos Estados Unidos, Lael Brainard, suavizar a percepção de que um aumento dos juros nos Estados Unidos poderia ocorrer em breve.
O mercado está reagindo ainda a expectativas relacionadas ao anúncio do pacote do governo que deve prever leilões para concessões na área de infraestrutura, transporte e saneamento, além da privatização de ativos, principalmente no setor elétrico.
Às 13h20, a moeda norte-americana subia 1,87%, vendida a R$ 3,3099.
Acompanhe a cotação ao longo do dia:
- Às 9h10, alta de 0,67%, a R$ 3,271
- Às 9h49, alta de 1,02%, a R$ 3,2823
- Às 10h30, alta de 0,97%, a R$ 3,2807
- Às 11h, alta de 1,26%, a R$ 3,2902
- Às 11h40, alta de 1,42%, a R$ 3,2954
- Às 12h, alta de 1,55%, a R$ 3,2994
- Às 12h19, alta de 1,92%, a R$ 3,3115
O governo Michel Temer divulga nesta terça-feira um pacote que deve prever leilões para concessões na área de infraestrutura, transporte e saneamento, além da privatização de ativos, principalmente no setor elétrico, em mais uma medida para tentar tirar a economia da maior recessão de sua história e retomar os investimentos.
Taxa de juros nos EUA
Na última semana, os investidores reforçaram as apostas de um aumento dos juros nos EUA em breve depois que o presidente do Fed de Boston, Eric Rosengren, declarou que o Fed enfrenta cada vez mais riscos se esperar muito tempo para elevar as taxas.
Nesta segunda-feira, contudo, a diretora do Fed Lael Brainard defendeu cautela para não remover seus estímulos monetários muito rapidamente pela potencial fraqueza no mercado de trabalho e dos riscos de desaceleração econômica do exterior.
Autoridades do Fed entrarão divididas na reunião de 20 e 21 de setembro, com algumas preocupadas que as atuais taxas na economia alimentem um salto na inflação enquanto outras, entre elas Brainard, defendem que o Fed não deve correr para elevar os juros.
Cenário interno
No Brasil, o mercado espera o encaminhamento pelo governo de Michel Temer da proposta de reforma da Previdência até o final do mês, antes das eleições municipais, considerada pelo mercado um dos principais pontos para colocar as contas públicas do país em ordem.
O Banco Central realiza nesta manhã leilão de até 10 mil contratos de swap cambial reverso.
Na véspera, o dólar caiu 0,94%, vendido a R$ 3,2490. No mês de setembro, o dólar avança 0,6%. Contudo, no acumulado de 2016 recua 17,7% frente ao real.
BACEN. PORTAL UOL. 13/09/2016. Dólar sobe quase 2%, perto de R$ 3,31; Bolsa opera em queda de 3%
O dólar comercial operava em alta e a Bovespa caía nesta terça-feira (13). Por volta das 12h25, a moeda norte-americana subia 1,92%, a R$ 3,312 na venda, e o Ibovespa, principal índice da Bolsa brasileira, caía 2,98%, a 56.840,39 pontos. Os mercados eram influenciados pela queda do preço do petróleo. Investidores continuavam atentos à discussão sobre o aumento dos juros nos Estados Unidos. No Brasil, o mercado repercutia a cassação do ex-presidente da Câmara dos Deputados Eduardo Cunha na noite de segunda-feira (12). Investidores também monitoravam notícias sobre uma possível delação do ex-parlamentar e suas consequências sobre o governo Temer. (Com Reuters)
BACEN. REUTERS. 13/09/2016. Dólar segue moeda no exterior e sobe 1%, pressionada pelo petróleo
Por Claudia Violante
SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - O dólar operava em alta ante o real na manhã desta terça-feira, seguindo o comportamento da moeda no exterior, com o mercado pressionado pelo recuo do preço do petróleo e atento à discussão sobre o aumento dos juros nos Estados Unidos no próximo encontro de política monetária do Federal Reserve.
Às 10h52, o dólar subia 1,06 por cento, a 3,2835 reais na venda. Na mínima do dia, a moeda marcou 3,2450 reais e, na máxima, 3,2920.
O dólar futuro avançava 1,15 por cento nesta manhã.
"Acho que há muita especulação, tanto que a moeda chega a oscilar dez centavos no intradia, não vejo justificativas para essa montanha-russa que está o dólar", disse o diretor da assessoria de câmbio FB Capital, Fernando Bergallo.
"Segunda-feira caiu quase 1 por cento com a percepção de que o aperto monetário não deve acontecer tão cedo, mas essa leitura muda a cada meia hora e isso mexe com as cotações", acrescentou.
O preço do barril do petróleo caía nesta terça-feira com previsões pessimistas sobre o crescimento da demanda.
Segundo a Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA, na sigla em inglês), uma forte desaceleração no crescimento mundial da demanda por petróleo, juntamente com o acúmulo de estoques e o aumento da oferta, significam que o mercado terá excedente durante pelo menos os primeiros seis meses de 2017.
Ao petróleo se somou uma pressão compradora doméstica depois da cassação do ex-presidente da Câmara dos Deputados Eduardo Cunha na noite de segunda-feira.
O mercado monitora notícias sobre uma possível delação do ex-parlamentar e seus respingos sobre o governo Temer. Em entrevista após a cassação, na segunda-feira, Cunha negou que vá fazer delação premiada, mas culpou o governo pela perda de seu mandato.
Além disso, seguem as especulações em torno do aperto monetário norte-americano, após a diretora do Fed Lael Brainard ter feito um discurso suave na segunda-feira que esvaziou as apostas para um aumento no encontro da semana que vem.
O mercado agora ficará de olho no plano de privatizações que o governo apresentar nesta terça-feira.
O Banco Central vendeu a oferta integral de 10 mil contratos de swap cambial reverso.
BOVESPA/ANÁLISE
BOVESPA. PORTAL G1. 13/09/2016. Bovespa cai mais de 3%, de olho em exterior e pacote de concessões. Na véspera, Ibovespa fechou em alta de 1,01%, aos 58.586 pontos. Preços do petróleo recuam ao redor de 2%.
Do G1, em São Paulo
A Bovespa opera em queda nesta terça-feira (13), acompanhando o cenário externo desfavorável, onde os preços do petróleo recuam ao redor de 2%, e após o anúncio dopacote de concessões do governo federal.
Às 13h17, o Ibovespa, principal indicador da Bolsa de São Paulo, caía 2,96%, a 56.852 pontos. Veja a cotação. O índice chegou a cair mais de 3%.
Perto do mesmo horário, as ações da Petrobras caíam ao redor de 5%, Já a Vale perdia mais de 5% nas preferenciais e mais de 6% nas ordinárias.
Na véspera, o Ibovespa fechou em alta de 1,01%, aos 58.586 pontos, após a diretora do Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central dos Estados Unidos) Lael Brainard alertar contra a retirada de estímulo à economia dos Estados Unidos, o que levou investidores a suavizar a percepção de uma alta imediata nos juros na maior economia do mundo.
Em discurso, a diretora do Fed Lael Brainard defendeu cautela para não remover seus estímulos monetários muito rapidamente por causa da potencial fraqueza no mercado de trabalho e dos riscos de desaceleração econômica do exterior.
As autoridades do Fed deverão entrar divididas na reunião de 20 e 21 de setembro, com algumas preocupadas que as atuais taxas baixas alimentem um salto na inflação enquanto outras, entre elas Brainard, argumentam que o Fed não deve correr para elevar os juros.
BOVESPA. PORTAL UOL. 13/09/2016. Ações da Vale caem mais de 5%; Petrobras opera em queda de 3%
As ações da Vale e da Petrobras operavam forte queda nesta terça-feira (13). Por volta das 11h45, as ações ordinárias da Vale (VALE3), com direito a voto em assembleia, recuavam 5,15%, a R$ 16,59. As preferenciais (VALE5), com prioridade na distribuição de dividendos, tinham queda de 3,84%, a R$ 14,28. As ações ordinárias da Petrobras (PETR3) caíam 3,12%, a R$ 15,53. As ações preferenciais da estatal (PETR4) perdiam 2,22%, a R$ 13,64.
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LGCJ.:
