Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-1/4 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/2 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 4 percent.
DOCUMENT: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm
BEA. 08/05/2016. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2016
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $44.5 billion in May, up $3.6 billion from $41.0 billion in May, revised. June exports were $183.2 billion, $0.6 billion more than May exports. June imports were $227.7 billion, $4.2 billion more than May imports.
DOCUMENT: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2016/pdf/trad0616.pdf
DoC. 08/05/2016. Statement from U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker on International Trade in Goods and Services in June 2016
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker issued the following statement today on the release of the June 2016 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services monthly data. U.S. exports of goods and services increased to $183.2 billion in June from $182.5 billion in May. New monthly export records were set in Telecommunications, Computer, and Information Services -- $3.1 billion; in Maintenance and Repairs Services -- $2.3 billion; and in Insurance Services -- $1.6 billion. Year-to-date, the goods and services trade deficit decreased $5.8 billion, or 2.3 percent, from the same period in 2015. In addition, year-to-date, the United States has goods trade surpluses with the United Kingdom, OPEC, and CAFTA-DR.
“Despite global economic headwinds, today's data show that U.S. goods and services are in high demand," said Secretary Pritzker. "Year-to-date, we have seen a decrease in the goods and services trade deficit, as well as goods trade surpluses with some of our key partners. To build on this success, our entire Administration is committed to a trade agenda that promotes high-standard, 21st century trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which will grow our exports, strengthen our nation's economy, and support job creation here at home."
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a transformational trade agreement with 11 other countries bordering the Pacific, home to some of the fastest-growing markets in the world. Combined, the current TPP members represent nearly 40 percent of the global GDP. TPP levels the playing field for American workers and American businesses, supporting more Made-in-America exports and higher paying American jobs. A report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics shows that if TPP is delayed by just one year, the United States will see an estimated one-time national loss of $94 billion. That translates to a loss of $700 on average for every U.S. household.
The TPP will foster the type of economic integration that currently enhances trade with our free trade agreement (FTA) partners. Since 2009, U.S. goods exports to FTA partners have grown faster (52 percent) than our exports to the rest of the world (34 percent).
BLS. August 5, 2016. Employment Situation Summary. THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION - JULY 2016.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 255,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was
unchanged at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in professional and business services, health care, and financial activities.
Employment in mining continued to trend down.
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate held at 4.9 percent in July, and the number of unemployed persons
was essentially unchanged at 7.8 million. Both measures have shown little movement, on
net, since August of last year. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates in July were little changed for adult
men (4.6 percent), adult women (4.3 percent), teenagers (15.6 percent), Whites, (4.3
percent), Blacks (8.4 percent), Asians (3.8 percent), and Hispanics (5.4 percent). (See
tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In July, the number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks decreased by 258,000. At
2.0 million, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more)
was about unchanged over the month and accounted for 26.6 percent of the unemployed.
(See table A-12.)
Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.8 percent, and the employment-population
ratio, at 59.7 percent, changed little in July. (See table A-1.) The number of persons
employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time
workers) was little changed at 5.9 million in July. These individuals, who would have
preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut
back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In July, 2.0 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about unchanged
from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not
in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime
in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched
for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 591,000 discouraged workers in July, little
different from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged
workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are
available for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor
force in July had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family
responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 255,000 in July. Job gains occurred in
professional and business services, health care, and financial activities. Mining
employment continued to trend down. (See table B-1.)
Professional and business services added 70,000 jobs in July and has added 550,000 jobs
over the past 12 months. Within the industry, employment rose by 37,000 in professional
and technical services in July, led by computer systems design and related services
(+8,000) and architectural and engineering services (+7,000). Employment in management
and technical consulting services continued to trend up (+6,000).
In July, health care employment increased by 43,000, with gains in ambulatory health care
services (+19,000), hospitals (+17,000), and nursing and residential care facilities
(+7,000). Over the past 12 months, health care has added 477,000 jobs.
Employment in financial activities rose by 18,000 in July and has risen by 162,000 over
the year.
Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up in July (+45,000). Employment
in food services and drinking places changed little in July (+21,000); this industry has
added an average of 18,000 jobs per month thus far this year, compared with an average
monthly gain of 30,000 in 2015.
Government employment edged up in July (+38,000).
Employment in mining continued to trend down over the month (-6,000). Since reaching a
peak in September 2014, employment in this industry has fallen by 220,000, or 26 percent.
Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale
trade, retail trade, and information, showed little or no change over the month.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour
to 34.5 hours in July. In manufacturing, the workweek was unchanged at 40.7 hours, while
overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and
nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls also increased by 0.1 hour to 33.7
hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased
by 8 cents to $25.69. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.6 percent.
Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees
increased by 7 cents to $21.59 in July. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +11,000 to
+24,000, and the change for June was revised from +287,000 to +292,000. With these
revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 18,000 more than previously
reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 190,000 per month.
DoL. 08/05/2016. STATEMENT OF US LABOR SECRETARY PEREZ ON JULY EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS.
WASHINGTON – U.S. Secretary of Labor Thomas E. Perez issued the following statement about the July 2016 Employment Situation report released today:
“With the addition of 255,000 jobs in July, American businesses have created a total of 15 million jobs since February 2010. This month’s report confirms that the Great Recession is indeed in the nation’s rearview mirror – the economy has added jobs for 70 consecutive months, the longest streak on record. The unemployment rate in July held steady at 4.9 percent, down from 10 percent during the depths of the recession. Wages have risen 2.6 percent over the year. All in all, the July report indicates widespread growth and a strong, balanced recovery.
“Just seven years since the auto industry was on life support, auto sales remain near record highs. We have seen 74 consecutive weeks of initial unemployment claims at or below 300,000 – the last time we saw a streak like that was December 1973. Consumer confidence is strong.
“While this sustained progress is encouraging, we have more work to do to ensure that everyone gets a chance to share in this recovery. We must raise the federal minimum wage so that no one who works full-time in America lives in poverty. We must expand access to paid leave so that people don’t have to choose between the job they need and the family they love. We must continue to invest in our most precious natural resource – our human capital – so that everyone gets the skills and training they need to compete.
With fewer than 200 days left in this administration, we remain as committed as ever to ensuring that the prosperity we’ve created in the last eight years is sustained and broadly shared.”
DoC. 08/05/2016. Statement from U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker on U.S. Employment Report for July 2016
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker today released the following statement on the July jobs report, which showed that U.S. employment rose by 255,000 while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%.
“Today’s jobs report underscores the steadiness and breadth of our economic expansion. With 255,000 jobs added in July, we marked our record 70th straight month of job growth. U.S. businesses have now added 15 million jobs since early 2010, the unemployment rate remains low at 4.9 percent, and growth in hourly earnings has increased 2.6 percent in the past year.
“However, we have more to do to ensure that this progress continues and that the benefits of growth are broadly shared. This includes making critical investments in our infrastructure and our workforce, implementing high-standards trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and raising the minimum wage.”
The White House. August 5, 2016. The Employment Situation in July
Summary:
The economy added 255,000 jobs in July, as the unemployment rate held steady and labor force participation rose, and wage growth picked up.
The economy added 255,000 jobs in July following robust job growth in June, as the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent and labor force participation rose. U.S. businesses have now added 15.0 million jobs since private-sector job growth turned positive in early 2010, and the longest streak of total job growth on record continued in July. So far in 2016, job growth has averaged a solid 186,000 jobs a month, well above the pace needed to maintain a low and stable unemployment rate, and nominal hourly earnings for private employees have increased at an annual rate of nearly 3 percent so far in 2016, much faster than the pace of inflation. Nevertheless, more work remains to sustain faster wage growth and to ensure that the benefits of the recovery are broadly shared, including investing in infrastructure, implementing the high-standards Trans-Pacific Partnership, raising the minimum wage, and guaranteeing access to paid parental leave.
FIVE KEY POINTS ON THE LABOR MARKET IN JULY 2016
1. U.S. businesses have now added 15.0 million jobs since private-sector job growth turned positive in early 2010. Today, we learned that private employment rose by 217,000 jobs in July, following a similarly robust gain of 259,000 jobs in June. Total nonfarm employment rose by 255,000 jobs in July, above the pace of recent months and substantially higher than the pace of about 80,000 jobs per month that CEA estimates is necessary to maintain a low and stable unemployment rate given the impact of demographic trends on labor force participation. Total job growth for May and June was revised up by a combined 18,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent in July, and the labor force participation rate ticked up to 62.8 percent—the same rate as in October 2013 despite the aging of the U.S. population putting downward pressure on the participation rate. So far in 2016, nominal earnings for private-sector workers have increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent, and wage growth over the past year is tied for the fastest twelve-month pace since the start of the recovery.
2. Nominal hourly earnings for private-sector workers have risen at an annual rate of 2.9 percent so far in 2016, well above the pace of inflation. Over the past twelve months, nominal hourly earnings for all private-sector workers have increased 2.6 percent, while consumer prices have risen just 1.0 percent over the past year (through June, the most recent data available). As the chart below shows, nominal hourly earnings have grown faster than consumer prices each year since 2012, translating into real wage gains for American workers. While nominal wage growth has been faster so far in 2016 than in 2015, consumer price inflation has picked up slightly as energy prices have moderated somewhat after falling sharply in 2014 and 2015. Nevertheless, real wage growth—a key component of rising living standards—has broadly picked up over the last three years as the recovery in the U.S. labor market has strengthened.
3. Broader measures of labor underutilization have steadily improved, and most are below pre-recession averages, although the broadest measure remains slightly elevated. The headline unemployment rate, the U-3 rate—which includes unemployed persons who have looked for work in the last month—has fallen from a peak of 10.0 percent in 2009 to 4.9 percent in July, below its pre-recession average. Broader measures of labor underutilization tell a similar story. These measures each include a progressively broader group of individuals: U-4 counts discouraged workers in addition to the unemployed, U-5 adds in others who are marginally attached to the labor force, and U-6 also includes people working part-time who would prefer a full-time job (“part-time for economic reasons”). All of these measures also saw large increases during the recession, with the U-6 rate in particular reaching a record high. However, U-3, U-4, and U-5 all recovered fully to their respective pre-recession averages in the summer of 2015 and have fallen further since. The U-6 rate—which ticked up to 9.7 percent in July—is now the only broader measure of labor underutilization that remains above its pre-recession average. This remaining elevation is entirely attributable to the fact that, despite steady improvement, the large increase in people working part-time for economic reasons in the recession has not been fully reversed.
4. The college earnings premium—the ratio of earnings for those with a college degree to earnings for those with a high school degree—has risen over the last four decades, highlighting the continued importance of investing in higher education. As discussed in a recent CEA report, the college earnings premium has reached historical highs in recent years, reflecting a trend over several decades of increasing relative demand for skilled workers. In 2014, the median full-time, full-year worker over age 25 with a bachelor’s degree earned nearly 70 percent more than a similar worker with just a high school degree. Moreover, those with a college degree are more likely to be employed: in July 2016, Americans with a bachelor’s degree or higher were 18 percentage points more likely to be employed than high school graduates. As a result, higher education may be the single most important investment that young Americans can make in their futures. While these data suggest that the overall return to a college education is near historic highs, there is meaningful variation across individuals, largely related to the schools students attend and the programs they select. In particular, evidence suggests that the relatively low returns at for-profit colleges are increasingly becoming a cause for concern, especially given the high rates of borrowing by students at those schools. The rise in student loan debt in recent years has created challenges for some borrowers, and the Administration has taken steps—including creating options like the Pay as You Earn (PAYE) plan, which caps monthly student loan payments at 10 percent of discretionary income—to help borrowers manage debt after college.
5. The distribution of job growth across industries in July was consistent with recent trends. Above-average gains relative to the past year were seen in industries such as financial activities (+18,000), professional and business services (+53,000, excluding temporary help services), and State and local government (+35,000). Most other industries grew in July at roughly the same pace as in the last twelve months, though private educational services (-14,000) and wholesale trade (+2,000) saw weaker-than-average growth. Manufacturing still faces global headwinds, but showed somewhat better growth in July (+9,000) compared to the past year, and mining and logging (which includes oil extraction) posted a smaller loss (-7,000) than in recent months. Across the 17 industries shown below, the correlation between the most recent one-month percent change and the average percent change over the last twelve months was 0.84, somewhat above the average correlation over the last two years.
As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and payroll employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data as they become available.
FIVE KEY POINTS ON THE LABOR MARKET IN JULY 2016
1. U.S. businesses have now added 15.0 million jobs since private-sector job growth turned positive in early 2010. Today, we learned that private employment rose by 217,000 jobs in July, following a similarly robust gain of 259,000 jobs in June. Total nonfarm employment rose by 255,000 jobs in July, above the pace of recent months and substantially higher than the pace of about 80,000 jobs per month that CEA estimates is necessary to maintain a low and stable unemployment rate given the impact of demographic trends on labor force participation. Total job growth for May and June was revised up by a combined 18,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent in July, and the labor force participation rate ticked up to 62.8 percent—the same rate as in October 2013 despite the aging of the U.S. population putting downward pressure on the participation rate. So far in 2016, nominal earnings for private-sector workers have increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent, and wage growth over the past year is tied for the fastest twelve-month pace since the start of the recovery.
2. Nominal hourly earnings for private-sector workers have risen at an annual rate of 2.9 percent so far in 2016, well above the pace of inflation. Over the past twelve months, nominal hourly earnings for all private-sector workers have increased 2.6 percent, while consumer prices have risen just 1.0 percent over the past year (through June, the most recent data available). As the chart below shows, nominal hourly earnings have grown faster than consumer prices each year since 2012, translating into real wage gains for American workers. While nominal wage growth has been faster so far in 2016 than in 2015, consumer price inflation has picked up slightly as energy prices have moderated somewhat after falling sharply in 2014 and 2015. Nevertheless, real wage growth—a key component of rising living standards—has broadly picked up over the last three years as the recovery in the U.S. labor market has strengthened.
3. Broader measures of labor underutilization have steadily improved, and most are below pre-recession averages, although the broadest measure remains slightly elevated. The headline unemployment rate, the U-3 rate—which includes unemployed persons who have looked for work in the last month—has fallen from a peak of 10.0 percent in 2009 to 4.9 percent in July, below its pre-recession average. Broader measures of labor underutilization tell a similar story. These measures each include a progressively broader group of individuals: U-4 counts discouraged workers in addition to the unemployed, U-5 adds in others who are marginally attached to the labor force, and U-6 also includes people working part-time who would prefer a full-time job (“part-time for economic reasons”). All of these measures also saw large increases during the recession, with the U-6 rate in particular reaching a record high. However, U-3, U-4, and U-5 all recovered fully to their respective pre-recession averages in the summer of 2015 and have fallen further since. The U-6 rate—which ticked up to 9.7 percent in July—is now the only broader measure of labor underutilization that remains above its pre-recession average. This remaining elevation is entirely attributable to the fact that, despite steady improvement, the large increase in people working part-time for economic reasons in the recession has not been fully reversed.
4. The college earnings premium—the ratio of earnings for those with a college degree to earnings for those with a high school degree—has risen over the last four decades, highlighting the continued importance of investing in higher education. As discussed in a recent CEA report, the college earnings premium has reached historical highs in recent years, reflecting a trend over several decades of increasing relative demand for skilled workers. In 2014, the median full-time, full-year worker over age 25 with a bachelor’s degree earned nearly 70 percent more than a similar worker with just a high school degree. Moreover, those with a college degree are more likely to be employed: in July 2016, Americans with a bachelor’s degree or higher were 18 percentage points more likely to be employed than high school graduates. As a result, higher education may be the single most important investment that young Americans can make in their futures. While these data suggest that the overall return to a college education is near historic highs, there is meaningful variation across individuals, largely related to the schools students attend and the programs they select. In particular, evidence suggests that the relatively low returns at for-profit colleges are increasingly becoming a cause for concern, especially given the high rates of borrowing by students at those schools. The rise in student loan debt in recent years has created challenges for some borrowers, and the Administration has taken steps—including creating options like the Pay as You Earn (PAYE) plan, which caps monthly student loan payments at 10 percent of discretionary income—to help borrowers manage debt after college.
5. The distribution of job growth across industries in July was consistent with recent trends. Above-average gains relative to the past year were seen in industries such as financial activities (+18,000), professional and business services (+53,000, excluding temporary help services), and State and local government (+35,000). Most other industries grew in July at roughly the same pace as in the last twelve months, though private educational services (-14,000) and wholesale trade (+2,000) saw weaker-than-average growth. Manufacturing still faces global headwinds, but showed somewhat better growth in July (+9,000) compared to the past year, and mining and logging (which includes oil extraction) posted a smaller loss (-7,000) than in recent months. Across the 17 industries shown below, the correlation between the most recent one-month percent change and the average percent change over the last twelve months was 0.84, somewhat above the average correlation over the last two years.
As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and payroll employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data as they become available.
_______________
LGCJ.:
