Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months. Household spending has been increasing at a moderate rate, and the housing sector has improved further; however, business fixed investment and net exports have been soft. A range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market. Inflation picked up in recent months; however, it continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent.
FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160316a.htm
FED. March 16, 2016. Implementation Note issued March 16, 2016. Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation
The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on March 16, 2016:
- The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System left unchanged the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances at 0.50 percent.
- As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:
- "Effective March 17, 2016, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1/4 to 1/2 percent, including overnight reverse repurchase operations (and reverse repurchase operations with maturities of more than one day when necessary to accommodate weekend, holiday, or similar trading conventions) at an offering rate of 0.25 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account that are available for such operations and by a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day.
- The Committee directs the Desk to continue rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction and to continue reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee also directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency mortgage-backed securities transactions."
- More information regarding open market operations may be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's website.
- The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System took no action to change the discount rate (the primary credit rate), which remains at 1.00 percent.
This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.
FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160316a1.htm
FED. March 16, 2016. Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the March 15-16 FOMC meeting
The attached table and charts released on Wednesday summarize the economic projections and the target federal funds rate projections made by Federal Open Market Committee participants for the March 15-16 meeting.
The table will be incorporated into a summary of economic projections released with the minutes of the March 15-16 meeting. Summaries of economic projections are released quarterly.
Projections: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160316.pdf
Accessible Materials: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20160316.htm
FGV. IBRE. 17/03/2016. Cinco das sete capitais pesquisadas registraram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação.
O IPC-S de 15 de março de 2016 registrou variação de 0,65%, 0,03 ponto percentual (p.p.) abaixo da taxa divulgada na última apuração. Cinco das sete capitais pesquisadas registraram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação.
A tabela a seguir, apresenta as variações percentuais dos municípios das sete capitais componentes do índice, nesta e na apuração anterior.
DOCUMENTO: http://portalibre.fgv.br/main.jsp?lumPageId=402880972283E1AA0122841CE9191DD3&lumItemId=8A7C82C5519A54780153816DF3335E8E
FGV. IBRE. 18/03/2016. IGP-M desacelera na segunda prévia do mês. Índices Gerais de Preços. IGP-M Segundo Decêndio.
O Índice Geral de Preços - Mercado (IGP-M) registrou, no segundo decêndio[1] de março, variação de 0,43%. No mês anterior, para o mesmo período de coleta, a variação foi de 1,24%. O segundo decêndio do IGP-M compreende o intervalo entre os dias 21 do mês anterior e 10 do mês de referência.
O Índice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo (IPA) apresentou variação de 0,39%, no segundo decêndio de março. No mesmo período do mês anterior, a taxa foi de 1,39%. A taxa de variação dos Bens Finais passou de 1,31% para 1,38%. A maior contribuição para este movimento teve origem no subgrupo alimentos in natura, cuja taxa passou de 1,99% para 8,32%.
A taxa de variação do grupo Bens Intermediários passou de 1,13%, em fevereiro, para -0,90%, em março. O destaque coube ao subgrupo materiais e componentes para a manufatura, cuja taxa passou de 1,66% para -1,32%.
O índice referente a Matérias-Primas Brutas registrou variação de 0,76%. No mês anterior, a taxa foi de 1,82%. Os itens que mais contribuíram para este movimento foram: milho (em grão) (17,17% para 2,62%), soja (em grão) (-0,45% para -5,39%) e mandioca (aipim) (6,87% para -1,42%). Em sentido oposto, destacam-se: minério de ferro (-2,86% para 2,76%), aves (-4,24% para 3,83%) e laranja (-2,88% para 9,40%).
O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) registrou variação de 0,53%, no segundo decêndio de março, ante 1,17%, no mesmo período do mês anterior. Quatro das oito classes de despesa componentes do índice registraram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação. A principal contribuição partiu do grupo Habitação (0,86% para 0,02%). Nesta classe de despesa, cabe mencionar o item tarifa de eletricidade residencial, cuja taxa passou de -0,18% para -2,63%.
Também foram computados decréscimos nas taxas de variação dos grupos:
- Transportes(1,74% para 0,65%);
- Educação, Leitura e Recreação (2,11% para -0,14%); e
- Alimentação (1,29% para 0,81%).
As maiores contribuições para estes movimentos partiram dos itens:tarifa de ônibus urbano (3,80% para -0,07%), cursos formais (3,28% para 0,05%)e hortaliças e legumes (6,23% para -3,08%), respectivamente.
Em contrapartida, registraram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação os grupos:
- Comunicação (0,50% para 1,04%),
- Despesas Diversas (1,31% para 2,03%),
- Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,62% para 0,69%); e
- Vestuário (0,60% para 0,62%).
Nestas classes de despesa, vale mencionar: tarifa de telefone móvel (0,03% para 2,06%), cigarros (1,90% para 4,20%), artigos de higiene e cuidado pessoal (0,18% para 0,83%) e roupas (0,71% para 0,83%), respectivamente.
O Índice Nacional de Custo da Construção (INCC) apresentou, no segundo decêndio de março, variação de 0,50%. No mês anterior, a taxa foi de 0,40%. O índice relativo a Materiais, Equipamentos e Serviços registrou variação de 0,30%. No mês anterior, a taxa foi de 0,48%. O índice que representa o custo da Mão de Obra registrou taxa de variação de 0,67%. No mês anterior, este índice variou 0,33%.
DOCUMENTO: http://portalibre.fgv.br/main.jsp?lumPageId=402880972283E1AA0122841CE9191DD3&contentId=8A7C82C5519A54780153894AEBA31DB0
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LGCJ.:
