BRASIL

CORONAVÍRUS

MRE. 10/06/2020. Ministro Ernesto Araújo. Repatriação de brasileiros durante a pandemia

VÍDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=236&v=YjRO8oYr-jY&feature=emb_logo

________________

US ECONOMICS

CORONAVIRUS

U.S. Department of State. 06/11/2020. Secretary Pompeo’s Call with Austrian Foreign Minister Schallenberg

The below is attributable to Spokesperson Morgan Ortagus:‎

Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo spoke with Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg today about the U.S.-Austrian shared commitment to combatting the COVID-19 pandemic and to countering campaigns that spread disinformation, distort reality, and undermine trust in our democracies.  Secretary Pompeo and Foreign Minister Schallenberg also discussed the President’s Vision for Peace between Israel and the Palestinians and efforts to hold Iranian terrorism proxy Hizballah accountable for its malign activities in Europe.

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX / INFLATION

DoL. BLS. June 11, 2020. PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES - MAY 2020

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This increase followed declines of 1.3 percent in April
and 0.2 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index
decreased 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

In May, the advance in the final demand index is attributable to prices for final demand goods,
which climbed 1.6 percent. In contrast, the index for final demand services fell 0.2 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1 percent in May,
following three consecutive declines. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final
demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved down 0.4 percent, the largest 12-month
decrease since the index began in August 2013.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on May 2020 Producer Price Index Survey Data

The Producer Price Index (PPI) response rates for May were consistent with those of April and

no changes in estimation procedures were necessary. Additional information is available at

www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-producer-price-index.htm.

Final Demand

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods rose 1.6 percent in May, the largest increase
since the index began in November 2009. Nearly two-thirds of the advance can be traced to prices for
final demand foods, which increased 6.0 percent. The index for final demand energy climbed 4.5
percent, while prices for goods less foods and energy were unchanged.

Product detail: Two-thirds of the May increase in the index for final demand goods is attributable to
a 40.4-percent jump in meat prices. The indexes for gasoline, processed young chickens, light motor
trucks, liquefied petroleum gas, and carbon steel scrap also moved higher. Conversely, prices for
chicken eggs fell 41.2 percent. The indexes for diesel fuel and for plastic resins and materials also
decreased. (See table 4.)

Final demand services: The index for final demand services fell 0.2 percent in May, the same as in
April. The May decrease can be attributed to margins for final demand trade services, which declined
0.8 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) In
contrast, prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services advanced 1.5 percent. The
index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing was unchanged.

Product detail: Leading the May decline in the index for final demand services, margins for fuels and
lubricants retailing dropped 13.1 percent. The indexes for loan services (partial); securities
brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; truck transportation of freight;
machinery and vehicle wholesaling; and automobile and automobile parts retailing also moved lower.
Conversely, prices for transportation of passengers (partial) rose 12.2 percent. The indexes for dental
care and apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing also increased.

Table A. Monthly and 12-month percent changes in selected final demand price indexes, seasonally adjusted

Month	Total final demand	Final demand less foods, energy, and trade	Final demand goods				Final demand services				Change in final demand from 12 months ago (unadj.)	Change in final demand less foods, energy, and trade from 12 mo. ago (unadj.)
			Total	Foods	Energy	Less foods and energy	Total	Trade	Transportation and warehousing	Other
2019
May	0.2	0.3	-0.2	-0.3	-0.5	-0.1	0.3	0.0	0.6	0.4	2.1	2.4
June	-0.2	-0.1	-0.5	0.5	-3.0	-0.1	0.0	0.2	0.1	-0.1	1.6	2.1
July	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	1.6	1.9
Aug.	0.1	0.1	-0.3	-0.6	-1.4	0.0	0.3	0.9	-0.2	0.2	1.9	1.9
Sept.	-0.3	0.0	-0.2	0.4	-1.4	-0.1	-0.3	-0.9	-0.2	0.0	1.5	1.7
Oct.	0.3	0.0	0.5	1.4	1.8	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.0	1.0	1.5
Nov.	-0.1	0.1	0.3	1.3	-0.1	0.1	-0.3	-1.2	-0.2	0.1	1.0	1.4
Dec.	0.3	0.2	0.2	-0.2	1.1	0.0	0.3	0.6	1.6	0.1	1.4	1.5
2020
Jan.(1)	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	-1.3	0.5	2.0	1.5
Feb.(1)	-0.4	-0.1	-0.9	-1.8	-3.8	0.0	-0.2	-0.2	-0.4	-0.2	1.3	1.4
Mar.	-0.2	-0.2	-1.0	0.0	-6.7	0.2	0.2	1.4	-3.3	0.0	0.7	1.0
Apr.	-1.3	-0.9	-3.3	-0.5	-19.0	-0.4	-0.2	1.6	-3.5	-0.9	-1.2	-0.3
May	0.4	0.1	1.6	6.0	4.5	0.0	-0.2	-0.8	1.5	0.0	-0.8	-0.4
Footnotes (1) Some of the figures shown above and elsewhere in this release may differ from those previously reported because data for January 2020 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents.

Intermediate Demand by Commodity Type

Within intermediate demand in May, prices for processed goods rose 0.1 percent, the index for
unprocessed goods increased 8.9 percent, and prices for services fell 0.4 percent. (See tables B and
C.)

Processed goods for intermediate demand: The index for processed goods for intermediate
demand moved up 0.1 percent in May after five consecutive declines. Leading the increase, prices for
processed foods and feeds climbed 6.4 percent. The index for processed energy goods rose 0.1
percent. In contrast, prices for processed materials less foods and energy decreased 0.6 percent. For
the 12 months ended in May, the index for processed goods for intermediate demand dropped 6.8
percent.

Product Detail: The index for processed young chickens rose 14.4 percent. Prices for meats,
gasoline, lubricating oil base stocks, and softwood lumber (not edge worked) also advanced.
Conversely, the index for basic organic chemicals declined 5.2 percent. Prices for diesel fuel, steel
mill products, and natural cheese (except cottage cheese) also fell.

Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand: The index for unprocessed goods for intermediate
demand rose 8.9 percent in May, the largest advance since a 9.0-percent increase in February 2007.
Three-fourths of the broad-based increase in May can be traced to a 26.5-percent jump in prices for
unprocessed energy materials. The indexes for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs and for
unprocessed nonfood materials less energy moved up 4.5 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. For
the 12 months ended in May, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand dropped 19.4
percent.

Product Detail: Over one-third of the May increase in the index for unprocessed goods for
intermediate demand can be traced to a 36.5-percent jump in prices for natural gas. The indexes for
crude petroleum, slaughter chickens, slaughter barrows and gilts, slaughter steers and heifers, and
carbon steel scrap also rose. In contrast, the index for raw milk dropped 22.4 percent. Prices for corn
and aluminum base scrap also fell.

Table B. Monthly and 12-month percent changes in selected intermediate demand price indexes for goods by commodity type, seasonally adjusted

Month	Processed goods for intermediate demand					Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand
	Total	Foods and feeds	Energy goods	Less foods and energy	Total, change from 12 months ago (unadj.)	Total	Foodstuffs and feedstuffs	Energy materials	Nonfood materials less energy	Total, change from 12 months ago (unadj.)
2019
May	-0.5	-0.5	-1.3	-0.2	-0.7	-3.0	-2.0	-3.4	-3.7	-8.2
June	-1.0	-0.2	-4.2	-0.3	-2.3	-3.0	-0.5	-6.5	-0.6	-10.0
July	0.1	0.1	1.1	-0.2	-2.3	1.4	0.4	2.0	1.5	-9.7
Aug.	-0.5	0.3	-1.4	-0.3	-3.0	-1.6	-0.5	-3.1	-0.6	-7.7
Sept.	-0.1	0.8	-0.5	-0.2	-3.5	0.0	-0.9	1.5	-0.9	-8.9
Oct.	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.3	-3.8	0.3	5.4	-4.1	-0.8	-11.2
Nov.	0.2	1.4	1.4	-0.2	-2.9	3.1	0.6	7.8	-0.1	-5.1
Dec.	-0.1	0.0	0.5	-0.2	-1.7	1.2	0.5	0.8	3.1	-7.3
2020
Jan.(1)	-0.2	-0.2	-1.0	0.1	-1.0	-1.1	0.2	-5.9	5.0	-3.7
Feb.(1)	-0.9	-0.6	-4.0	-0.2	-2.1	-7.2	-6.2	-12.0	-1.2	-8.2
Mar.	-1.1	-0.8	-5.9	-0.1	-3.7	-8.0	-3.6	-19.1	1.3	-15.4
Apr.	-3.7	-0.1	-15.1	-1.5	-7.3	-13.7	-9.7	-27.5	-4.3	-28.2
May	0.1	6.4	0.1	-0.6	-6.8	8.9	4.5	26.5	0.6	-19.4
Footnotes (1) Some of the figures shown above and elsewhere in this release may differ from those previously reported because data for January 2020 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents.

Services for intermediate demand: The index for services for intermediate demand moved
down 0.4 percent in May, the fourth consecutive decline. The May decrease is attributable to
prices for services less trade, transportation, and warehousing for intermediate demand, which
fell 0.9 percent. Conversely, the index for trade services for intermediate demand increased 0.6
percent, and prices for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand moved
up 0.5 percent. For the 12 months ended in May, prices for services for intermediate demand
decreased 1.6 percent, the largest 12-month decline since the index began in November 2009.

Product Detail: Seventy percent of the May decrease in prices for services for intermediate
demand can be traced to a 10.0-percent decline in the index for securities brokerage, dealing,
investment advice, and related services. The indexes for nonresidential real estate rents, loan
services (partial), broadcast and network television advertising time sales, truck transportation of
freight, and fuels and lubricants retailing also declined. In contrast, margins for machinery and
equipment parts and supplies wholesaling rose 1.7 percent. The indexes for portfolio
management and transportation of passengers (partial) also increased.

Table C. Monthly and 12-month percent changes in selected intermediate demand price indexes for services by commodity type, seasonally adjusted

Month	Services for intermediate demand
	Total	Trade	Transportation and warehousing	Other	Total, change from 12 months ago (unadj.)
2019
May	0.1	-0.6	0.4	0.2	2.8
June	0.0	-0.1	0.2	0.0	2.6
July	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.0	2.3
Aug.	0.4	1.4	0.2	0.2	2.7
Sept.	0.2	1.0	0.2	0.0	2.5
Oct.	-0.6	-0.8	0.1	-0.6	1.4
Nov.	-0.1	-0.3	-0.1	-0.1	1.3
Dec.	0.5	1.0	0.7	0.3	1.7
2020
Jan.(1)	0.2	0.2	-0.5	0.2	1.7
Feb.(1)	-0.2	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1	1.4
Mar.	-0.1	0.7	-1.3	-0.1	1.0
Apr.	-1.6	-0.4	-1.4	-2.0	-1.2
May	-0.4	0.6	0.5	-0.9	-1.6
Footnotes (1) Some of the figures shown above and elsewhere in this release may differ from those previously reported because data for January 2020 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents.

Intermediate Demand by Production Flow

Stage 4 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 4 intermediate demand moved up 0.2 percent in
May following three consecutive declines. In May, the index for total goods inputs to stage 4
intermediate demand increased 0.5 percent. Conversely, prices for total services inputs decreased
0.2 percent. (See table D.) Advances in the indexes for beef and veal, portfolio management,
gasoline, machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling, transportation of passengers
(partial), and staffing services outweighed falling prices for nonresidential real estate rents;
diesel fuel; and securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services. (See table
6.) For the 12 months ended in May, the index for stage 4 intermediate demand decreased 1.7
percent.

Stage 3 intermediate demand: The index for stage 3 intermediate demand rose 0.3 percent in
May following four consecutive decreases. In May, prices for total goods inputs to stage 3
intermediate demand moved up 1.2 percent. In contrast, the index for total services inputs fell 0.4
percent. Rising prices for gasoline, slaughter poultry, slaughter barrows and gilts, slaughter steers
and heifers, machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling, and beef and veal
outweighed decreases in the indexes for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and
related services; raw milk; and diesel fuel. For the 12 months ended in May, prices for stage 3
intermediate demand declined 8.0 percent.

Stage 2 intermediate demand: The index for stage 2 intermediate demand moved up 1.9
percent in May, the largest increase since a 2.0-percent rise in December 2016. In May, prices
for total goods inputs to stage 2 intermediate demand advanced 5.0 percent, and the index for
total services inputs edged up 0.1 percent. Rising prices for gas fuels, crude petroleum, portfolio
management, staffing services, transportation of passengers (partial), and lubricating oil base
stocks outweighed decreases in the indexes for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice,
and related services; plastic resins and materials; and steel mill products. For the 12 months
ended in May, prices for stage 2 intermediate demand declined 8.3 percent.

Stage 1 intermediate demand: The index for stage 1 intermediate demand fell 0.6 percent in
May, the fourth consecutive decline. Prices for total goods inputs to stage 1 intermediate demand
fell 0.7 percent, and the index for total services inputs decreased 0.7 percent. Declines in the
indexes for diesel fuel; basic organic chemicals; loan services (partial); securities brokerage,
dealing, investment advice, and related services; nonresidential real estate rents; and fuels and
lubricants retailing outweighed increases in prices for transportation of passengers (partial),
gasoline, and gas fuels. For the 12 months ended in May, prices for stage 1 intermediate demand
fell 8.5 percent.

Table D. Monthly percent changes in selected intermediate demand price indexes by production flow, seasonally adjusted

Month	Stage 4 intermediate demand			Stage 3 intermediate demand			Stage 2 intermediate demand			Stage 1 intermediate demand
	Total	Goods inputs	Services inputs	Total	Goods inputs	Services inputs	Total	Goods inputs	Services inputs	Total	Goods inputs	Services inputs
2019
May	-0.1	-0.3	0.1	-0.3	-0.6	0.0	-0.5	-1.7	0.4	-1.0	-1.7	0.0
June	-0.2	-0.4	0.1	-0.9	-2.0	0.2	-1.3	-2.8	-0.3	-1.2	-2.3	-0.1
July	0.3	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.2	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.3	0.5	-0.2
Aug.	0.1	-0.4	0.6	0.1	-0.4	0.5	-0.5	-1.4	0.3	-0.4	-1.0	0.7
Sept.	0.1	0.1	0.2	-0.3	-0.9	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.1	-0.2	-0.5	0.3
Oct.	-0.2	0.2	-0.6	0.5	1.6	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-0.5	-0.2	0.3	-0.8
Nov.	0.1	0.3	-0.1	0.0	0.3	-0.2	1.1	2.4	0.2	0.2	0.6	-0.5
Dec.	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.7
2020
Jan.(1)	0.2	-0.1	0.2	-0.1	-0.2	0.0	-0.6	-1.6	0.2	0.1	0.4	-0.2
Feb.(1)	-0.5	-0.5	-0.3	-1.4	-2.9	-0.2	-2.0	-5.1	0.0	-1.5	-2.4	-0.3
Mar.	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	-1.4	-2.9	0.2	-2.6	-6.3	-0.1	-1.2	-2.2	-0.2
Apr.	-1.8	-1.9	-1.8	-5.1	-9.7	-1.1	-4.7	-9.5	-1.7	-4.6	-6.9	-1.8
May	0.2	0.5	-0.2	0.3	1.2	-0.4	1.9	5.0	0.1	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7
Footnotes (1) Some of the figures shown above and elsewhere in this release may differ from those previously reported because data for January 2020 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf

UNEMPLOYMENT

DoL. BLS. REUTERS. 11 DE JUNHO DE 2020. Pedidos de auxílio-desemprego nos EUA caem, mas milhões seguem desempregados
Por Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As demissões nos Estados Unidos estão diminuindo, mas milhões de pessoas que perderam o emprego por causa da Covid-19 continuam obtendo benefícios de desemprego, sugerindo que o mercado de trabalho pode levar anos para se recuperar da pandemia, mesmo quando as empresas retomarem a contratação de trabalhadores.

Os novos pedidos de auxílio-desemprego caíram para 1,542 milhão na semana encerrada em 6 de junho, segundo dado com ajuste sazonal, ante 1,897 milhão na semana anterior, informou o Departamento do Trabalho na quinta-feira.

Com isso, os pedidos para o auxílio afastaram-se de um recorde de 6,867 milhões registrado no final de março.

Economistas consultados pela Reuters previam 1,55 milhão de pedidos no última semana.

Mas o número de pessoas que têm recebido os benefícios permaneceu alto, com o chamado número de reivindicações continuadas em 20,929 milhões na semana encerrada em 30 de maio, os dados mais recentes disponíveis para essa métrica.

O número ainda representa queda ante os 21,268 milhões na semana anterior.

O relatório semanal de reivindicações de auxílio-desemprego, que traz dados importantes sobre a saúde da economia, vem após notícia na sexta-feira sobre um aumento surpreendente de 2,5 milhões de vagas fora do setor agrícola em maio.

O número reforçou visões de que o mercado de trabalho resistiu ao pior da turbulência. Mas os pedidos de auxílio-desemprego ainda estão em nível que representa mais do que o dobro do seu pico durante a Grande Recessão de 2007-09.

O Federal Reserve sinalizou na quarta-feira que poderá fornecer anos de apoio extraordinário à economia, projetando uma taxa de desemprego de 9,3% no final do ano. A taxa de desemprego dos EUA saltou de 3,5% em fevereiro para 13,3% em maio.

O presidente do Fed, Jerome Powell, disse a repórteres na quarta-feira que haverá um “período prolongado” durante o qual seria “difícil para muitas pessoas encontrar trabalho”.

________________

ORGANISMS

GLOBAL ECONOMY

IMF. 06/11/2020. THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESET—PROMOTING A MORE INCLUSIVE RECOVERY
By Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF

The COVID-19 crisis is inflicting the most pain on those who are already most vulnerable. This calamity could lead to a significant rise in income inequality. And it could jeopardize development gains, from educational attainment to poverty reduction. New estimates suggest that up to 100 million people worldwide could be pushed into extreme poverty, erasing all gains made in poverty reduction in the past three years.

That is why policymakers must do everything in their power to promote a more inclusive recovery, one that benefits all segments of society.

Our new research, prepared jointly with the World Bank for the G20, focuses on how to increase people’s access to opportunities, no matter who they are and where they are from. More equitable access to opportunities is associated with stronger and more sustainable growth and higher income gains for the poor. But unlocking the full potential of all individuals is not an easy task.

The reality is that low-income households face higher health risks from the virus. They bear the brunt of record-high unemployment and are less likely to benefit from distance learning. Children’s nutrition may also be harmed by the disruption to school-provided meals. According to UN estimates, more than half a billion children worldwide have lost their access to education as a result of coronavirus lockdowns. Many won’t return to the classrooms after the pandemic, with girls more likely than boys to drop out.

These inequalities are truly shocking, but not unexpected. We know from experience and recent IMF analysis that major epidemics often exacerbate pre-existing income inequality.

A policy response like no other

The good news is that governments around the world have deployed extraordinary policy measures to save lives and protect livelihoods. These include extra efforts to protect the poor, with many countries stepping up food aid and targeted cash transfers. Globally, fiscal actions so far amount to about $10 trillion.

But given the severity of the crisis, significant further efforts are essential. This includes taking the measures needed to avoid a scarring of the economy, including from job losses and higher inequality. It is clear that increasing access to opportunities is now more critical than ever if we are to avoid persistent increases in inequality.

With this in mind, I would like to highlight three priorities:

1. Use fiscal stimulus wisely

Substantial fiscal stimulus will have to be deployed during the recovery phase to boost growth and employment. We know from the global financial crisis that countries that experienced larger output losses relative to the pre-crisis trend tended to have higher increases in inequality.

Yet securing a return to growth is not enough. Let’s remember the post-financial crisis reforms and investments that made banking systems more resilient. We will need a similar surge in reforms and investments during the recovery phase to significantly improve the economic prospects of the most vulnerable.

So, we will need a fiscal stimulus that delivers for people. This means scaling up public investment in health care to protect the most vulnerable and minimize the risks from future epidemics. It also means strengthening social safety nets; expanding access to quality education, clean water, and sanitation; and investing in climate-smart infrastructure. Some countries could also expand access to high-quality childcare, which can boost female labor force participation and long-term growth.

These efforts are critical to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. But how can we significantly scale up spending when so many countries are now facing rising public debt? Public debt in emerging markets has risen to levels not seen in 50 years.

The IMF and the World Bank have championed debt service suspension as a fast-acting measure for countries that lack the financial resources to adequately respond to the crisis. The G20 has responded by agreeing to suspend repayment of official bilateral credit for the poorest countries, from May 1 through the end of 2020.

Over the medium term, there will be room to improve the efficiency of spending and mobilize higher public revenue. There will also be room for tax reform: for example, some advanced and emerging economies could raise their top personal income tax rates without slowing growth. Countries could ensure that the corporate tax system captures an appropriate part of the unusual gains received by the “winners” of the crisis, including perhaps from digital activities. And there should be a concerted effort to combat illicit flows and close tax loopholes, both domestically and internationally.

2. Empower the next generation through education

The virus-related disruption to education has left millions of children at risk of “learning poverty,” which means being unable to read and comprehend a simple text by age 10. Driven by poor access to quality schooling, learning poverty is already too high, especially in emerging markets and low-income nations.

We are also concerned about the long-term effects of the crisis on income and education gaps. In our research, we looked at the link between education and inequality. A 10-point increase in a country’s Gini coefficient (with such increases observed in some economies around the time of the global financial crisis) is associated with significantly lower educational attainment of about half a year. This could reduce lifetime earnings and cause income and opportunity gaps to become persistent across generations.

In other words, safeguarding our future means safeguarding our children. That is why we need more investment in education—not just spending more on schools and distance-learning capacity, but also improving the quality of education and the access to life-long learning and re-skilling.

These efforts can pay large dividends in terms of growth, productivity, and living standards. Simulations, based on a model reflecting an economy like Brazil, show that reducing the educational attainment gap by a quarter, relative to the OECD average, could boost economic output by more than 14 percent.

3. Harness the power of financial technology

COVID-19 has triggered a mass migration from analog to digital. But not everyone has seen the benefits; and the growing digital divide is set to become one of the legacies of the crisis.

What can policymakers do? A key priority must be to broaden the access of low-income households and small businesses to financial products, which will allow households to smooth consumption in the face of shocks and businesses to undertake productive investments. This “inclusion revolution” is now gaining momentum as governments are providing emergency cash transfers in record amounts. For example, in Pakistan and Peru, new support programs cover one-third of the population.

Reaching the most vulnerable can be challenging in developing economies, where nearly 70 percent of employment is informal. But this is where fintech opportunities abound. Think of the fact that about two-thirds of all unbanked adults (1.1 billion people) have a mobile phone, and one-quarter have access to the internet. Moving routine cash payments by governments into accounts could reduce the number of unbanked adults by 100 million globally, and even bigger opportunities exist in the private sector.

Of course, governments also need to manage fintech risks. Reforms are needed to promote competition, enhance consumer protection, and fight money laundering. Finding the right balance will be critical for lower inequality and growth.

Our research shows that greater access to finance and technology is associated with higher intergenerational income mobility. And we have estimated that there is a 2- to 3-percentage-point GDP growth difference over the long term between financially inclusive countries and their less inclusive peers.

In all these areas, the IMF is working with the World Bank and many other partners to support countries in this time of crisis. We are deeply committed to helping vulnerable groups through our hands-on technical assistance, policy advice, and lending programs. And we have increased our focus on social spending issues, including safety nets, health and education.

As they move forward, all governments will need to gear up for a more inclusive recovery. This means taking the right measures, especially on fiscal stimulus, education, and fintech. And it means sharing ideas, learning from others, and fostering a greater sense of solidarity.

If there is one lesson from this crisis, it’s that our society is only as strong as its weakest member. This should be our compass to a more resilient post-pandemic world.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/11/the-global-economic-reset-promoting-a-more-inclusive-recovery/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

FMI. 06/11/2020. Fortalecer las instituciones económicas para que la recuperación sea resiliente
Por Antoinette Sayeh

Los tiempos excepcionales exigen medidas excepcionales. En respuesta a la COVID 19, el FMI ha movilizado, con una velocidad y en una magnitud sin precedentes, asistencia financiera para ayudar a los países a proteger vidas y medios de vida. Sin embargo, lograr que la economía se estabilice y la recuperación sea sostenible exigirá algo más que asistencia financiera. Para que la recuperación sea sostenible, las autoridades económicas tendrán que fortalecer las instituciones económicas que posibilitan políticas inclusivas y resilientes.

Integrar el fortalecimiento de las capacidades con el apoyo financiero

Actualmente, los gobiernos se enfrentan a decisiones difíciles en materia de políticas, pero muchos de ellos carecen de bases sólidas de conocimientos económicos y técnicos para diseñar e implementar las políticas necesarias. Observemos, por ejemplo, el impacto de la COVID-19 sobre los presupuestos nacionales, que incluye grandes presiones de gasto, la pérdida de ingresos fiscales y un mayor nivel de deuda. Esto hace que sea aún más difícil avanzar hacia los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible, en especial para los países más frágiles y vulnerables.

Por esta razón, el FMI ha proporcionado un apoyo inmediato y en tiempo real, en forma de fortalecimiento de las capacidades y asesoramiento de política económica, a más de 160 países para que hagan frente a problemas urgentes, por ejemplo en materia de gestión de tesorería, supervisión financiera, ciberseguridad y gobernanza económica. El apoyo financiero del FMI está siempre vinculado a conversaciones directas y regulares con las autoridades económicas a fin de fortalecer la capacidad para abordar estos problemas. Hasta la fecha, más del 90% de los países que han solicitado financiamiento de emergencia relacionado con la pandemia han recibido también apoyo para el fortalecimiento de las capacidades en forma de asesoramiento técnico activo, herramientas prácticas y capacitación orientada a la formulación de políticas.

Fortalecer las finanzas públicas y la gestión de la deuda

La continuidad de las operaciones y la protección del flujo de ingresos son fundamentales para que los gobiernos movilicen con rapidez sus recursos internos y puedan mantenerlos. Además, a medida que los países aumentan su gasto de emergencia, también quieren tener marcos institucionales sólidos y una buena gobernanza, para que el dinero llegue rápidamente a quienes más lo necesitan, en especial cuando se trata de gastos sanitarios y sistemas de protección social. El FMI ha trabajado con administraciones tributarias y oficinas presupuestarias de muchos países para ayudarlos a restablecer las operaciones y fortalecer el apoyo a las empresas y a las personas, sin comprometer las salvaguardias ni la rendición de cuentas.

Un reto incluso mayor para las autoridades económicas es la gestión de la deuda, debido al deterioro de las finanzas públicas y al aumento de los costos de financiamiento. El FMI ha proporcionado un alivio inmediato del servicio de la deuda a 27 de sus países más pobres y, junto con el Banco Mundial, ha liderado la petición para que los principales acreedores bilaterales suspendan los pagos del servicio de la deuda para los países más pobres. Administradores de deuda de todo el mundo tratan de resolver cuestiones estratégicas, de registro y de gestión en el contexto de la COVID-19, y trabajan con expertos técnicos del FMI para revisar y actualizar sus sistemas y estrategias de gestión de la deuda. Un elemento importante de este proceso son los datos, ya que proporcionan información fundamental para analizar la crisis y las consiguientes necesidades de financiamiento. Para poder gestionar bien la deuda, las estadísticas son fundamentales. También, se han elaborado breves videos de microaprendizaje para el canal de YouTube del Instituto del FMI que abordan cuestiones relacionadas con los datos de la deuda del sector público.

Los gobiernos empiezan a moverse hacia la reapertura con prudencia, y contar con instituciones económicas más sólidas les permitirá analizar mejor los retos generados por la pandemia y reanudar los esfuerzos mediante políticas que promuevan oportunidades para toda su población, como la lucha contra la desigualdad, la adopción de medidas frente al cambio climático y el aprovechamiento de las tecnologías digitales.

Mantener una colaboración estrecha

La adaptación a nuevas formas de trabajar es territorio desconocido para todos. El FMI es consciente de ello y está poniendo en marcha plataformas virtuales que faciliten el intercambio de conocimientos, entre otras, un observatorio de políticas que recopila las medidas adoptadas por 196 economías para contrarrestar el impacto de la COVID-19. Sobre la base de las décadas de trabajo conjunto con los países, hemos elaborado 45 notas de series especiales que ofrecen a los países una orientación práctica sobre los elementos básicos de los desafíos comunes de política económica relacionados con la crisis. Hemos ampliado los cursos en línea gratuitos para aumentar el acceso global a los conocimientos especializados del FMI en temas como la política fiscal, la inclusión financiera y la gestión macroeconómica. El FMI también está haciendo uso de su red mundial de centros regionales de capacitación para responder con rapidez a las necesidades de emergencia de los países y asegurar una coordinación más estrecha con otras entidades que apoyan su desarrollo.

Por mis funciones anteriores como responsable de la formulación de políticas, conozco de primera mano el importante papel que pueden desempeñar las instituciones económicas en el diseño de políticas que tengan un impacto en la gente. La ardua tarea de fortalecer la base de conocimientos económicos no es glamorosa, pero es la que puede tener un mayor impacto a largo plazo en el bienestar económico y social de las personas. A medida que el mundo emerge del Gran Confinamiento, las autoridades económicas y los socios que apoyan el desarrollo de los países deben tener como principal prioridad la reconstrucción de instituciones más sólidas y resilientes.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://blog-dialogoafondo.imf.org/?p=13562&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

CORONAVIRUS

THE WORLD BANK GROUP. 06/11/2020. Global economy expected to shrink by 5.2% in 2020 due to COVID-19

The swift and massive shock of the coronavirus pandemic and shutdown measures to contain it have plunged the global economy into a severe contraction. According to World Bank forecasts, the global economy will shrink by 5.2% this year.

• Global Poverty: Using the newly launched growth forecasts of June from the Global Economic Prospects, updated global estimates of the impact of coronavirus forecast 71-100 million people will be pushed into extreme poverty.
• New Series: Recovery from COVID-19 will be an opportunity for countries to build resilience, improve inclusion and ensure economic growth. In this new series, we will focus on the ideas and actions that will help countries as they look beyond the pandemic. We will be joined by David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group, Henrietta Fore, Executive Director of UNICEF and African Union Commissioner Josefa Sacko to discuss how food security has been impacted by COVID-19. Join us live!
• Gender and COVID-19: In Pakistan, women and girls must be at the center of the country’s COVID-19 recovery. This is how the World Bank is helping.
• Making eyesight digital: As a result of a devastating earthquake in 2017, Salauno - a leading eye care provider in Mexico - was forced to close its new surgical hub and find creative ways to continue serving patients. Three years later, that experience is helping the company adapt to COVID-19 and offer services to patients through digital and mobile technologies.
• Sustainable recovery: Natural hazards and climate events don’t stop during a health crisis. As countries around the world are in different stages of responding to the COVID-19 emergency, here are a few lessons from experience in disaster risk management.
• Lending and finance: Alternative lenders using fintech—such as crowdfunding platforms and marketplace lenders— have been an increasingly important source of financing for small and medium businesses.
• Disaster risk management: Both disasters and health emergencies can come without warning. A constant dialogue between the entities in charge of finance, risk management and health emergencies will allow for better preparation and planning for a timely response and recovery.
• Impact on learning: At the peak of the crisis, about 1.6 billion children across the world were not at school. As schools look to re-open, here are four clear messages education systems should deliver to school leaders to improve student well-being and engagement.
• A regional perspective: World Bank’s calculations suggest that around 20 million jobs will be destroyed in the Latin America and Caribbean region this year. The current crisis, although deep and painful, offers the unique opportunity to reach broad social and political agreements to move toward these goals.
• Food security: Even before the global COVID-19 pandemic broke out, food insecurity was a serious concern throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Countries must take action now to build more resilient and productive food systems in the region to support food security during this pandemic and beyond.
• Go deeper: Learn how the World Bank Group is responding to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. Explore our multilingual portal.

Pandemic, Recession: The Global Economy in Crisis

COVID-19 has triggered the deepest global recession in decades. While the ultimate outcome is still uncertain, the pandemic will result in contractions across the vast majority of emerging market and developing economies. It will also do lasting damage to labor productivity and potential output. The immediate policy priorities are to alleviate the human costs and atenuate the near-term economic losses. Once the crisis abates, it will be necessary to reaffirm credible commitment to sustainable policies and undertake the necessary reforms to buttress long-term prospects. Global coordination and cooperation will be critical.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects?cid=ECR_E_NewsletterWeekly_EN_EXT&deliveryName=DM67636

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ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRAZIL ECONOMICS

INVESTIMENTO

MEconomia. 11/06/2020. INVESTIMENTOS. Privatizações e concessões vão ajudar o Brasil a superar a crise, diz secretária especial do PPI. Reunião do Conselho do PPI apontou que há interesse de investidores por projetos no país no período pós-coronavírus

A agenda de redução da presença do Estado na economia segue a pleno vapor e as concessões e privatizações ganharão força neste ano – como estratégia de atração de investimentos, de geração de empregos e reforço na arrecadação do governo – apoiando o Brasil na superação da crise provocada pela chegada da pandemia do novo coronavírus ao país. A mensagem foi dada pela secretária especial do Programa de Parcerias de Investimento (PPI) do Ministério da Economia, Martha Seillier, em entrevista coletiva realizada nesta quarta-feira (10/6) no Palácio do Planalto.

“Há, sim, muito apetite para a retomada de projetos no Brasil. O PPI está em permanente contato com investidores. O mundo inteiro vive momento de excesso de liquidez, com muito dinheiro parado, juros baixos. E os projetos do Brasil são muito atrativos quanto às possiblidades de retorno. O Brasil é um mercado consumidor muito relevante”, Martha Seillier
“Há, sim, muito apetite para a retomada de projetos no Brasil. O PPI está em permanente contato com investidores. O mundo inteiro vive momento de excesso de liquidez, com muito dinheiro parado, juros baixos. E os projetos do Brasil são muito atrativos quanto às possiblidades de retorno. O Brasil é um mercado consumidor muito relevante”, disse a secretária especial.

A privatização da Eletrobras é a “prioridade 01”, com expectativa de que o projeto de lei que permite a venda da empresa seja aprovado ainda este ano pelo Congresso Nacional, com leilão da companhia em 2021, destacou Seillier. Leilões de áreas em oferta permanente de óleo e gás deverão ocorrer no segundo semestre, apontou a secretária especial.

A entrevista ocorreu logo após o encerramento da 13ª reunião do Conselho do Programa de Parcerias de Investimentos (CPPI), com a presença do presidente da República, Jair Bolsonaro, e do ministro da Economia, Paulo Guedes, que o preside, para deliberar sobre novos empreendimentos a serem qualificados no âmbito do programa. O total da carteira de projetos presentes no PPI alcança cerca de R$ 350 bilhões, sendo  possível estimar, referente à 13º reunião, o montante de R$ 37 bilhões de investimentos, pendente ainda o valor de avaliações de projetos que ainda não têm os estudos financeiros iniciados.

Além de Martha Seillier, participaram da coletiva o secretário-executivo do Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações (MCTIC), Julio Francisco Semeghini Neto; o secretário adjunto de Fomento, Planejamento e Parcerias do Ministério da Infraestrutura, Fábio Rogério Teixeira Dias de Almeida Carvalho; e o assessor-chefe da Assessoria Especial de Apoio ao Investidor e Novos Negócios do PPI, Robson Eneas de Oliveira.

Destaques

Martha Seillier apresentou os projetos que foram destaques na reunião do CPPI. Foram analisados, entre outros pontos, projetos de sete arrendamentos portuários (AL, CE, RN e SP), estudos para a desestatização do porto de Itajaí (SC); lançamento de áreas em oferta permanente para exploração e produção de petróleo e gás natural, novas licitações dos aeroportos de São Gonçalo do Amarante (RN) e de Viracopos (SP), concessões de empreendimentos turísticos e parques nacionais, dissolução societária do Centro Nacional de Tecnologia Eletrônica Avançada (CEITEC) e contratação de estudos especializados sobre a Telebrás.

Seillier destacou que atrações ao ar livre vão ganhar ainda mais importância no período pós-Covid e que, diante disso, o momento é extremamente oportuno para oferecer à iniciativa privada a possibilidade de exploração de atrações turísticas e parques. Foram incluídos na lista de concessões, entre os empreendimentos turísticos, o Forte de Nossa Senhor dos Remédios e o Forte Orange (PE); a Fortaleza de Santa Catarina (PB) e a Fazenda Pau D’Alho (SP); além dos parques nacionais de São Joaquim (SC) e de Brasília (DF).

O Conselho do PPI aprovou também a política de apoio ao licenciamento ambiental de projetos de investimentos para a produção de minerais estratégicos, o “Pró-Minerais Estratégicos”. “Temos muita dependência de potássio, de fosfato, e dispomos desses minerais no país. Só temos que explorá-los”, disse a secretária

Ainda foram aprovadas regras para a realização de audiências públicas de projetos integrantes da carteira do PPI, inclusive de forma virtual. A meta é dar agilidade ao encaminhamento dos projetos, em adaptação a procedimentos diante do atual cenário da Covid-19.

ENERGIA

FGV. 10/06/2020. Impactos da COVID-19Panorama do petróleo com a crise

Desde o início da pandemia, o mercado do petróleo vem sendo prejudicado por causa do isolamento social, que causou uma redução de consumo de combustíveis no mundo inteiro. Houve uma tensão entre a Arábia Saudita e Rússia, além de uma oferta muito grande de petróleo no mercado internacional, o que desequilibrou o mercado e jogou os preços para baixo. Depois de dois meses, esse preço começa a dar sinais de subida. Quem fala sobre o assunto é a professora e pesquisadora Fernanda Delgado, da FGV Energia.

VÍDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7-vSuWiWGk&feature=youtu.be

CORONAVÍRUS

FGV. IBRE. 10/06/2020. Assistência

A intenção do Ministério da Economia recentemente sinalizada de reformular o Bolsa Família e expandir seus beneficiários após a vigência do auxílio emergencial – que, pelos planos do governo, deveria ser estendido por mais dois meses, com valor reduzido – pode ser uma oportunidade de resgatar o debate sobre reformas do sistema de proteção social brasileiro em bases mais adequadas para uma política de longo prazo. A avaliação é do economista Vinicius Botelho, reincorporado recentemente à Economia Aplicada do FGV IBRE como pesquisador associado, após atuar como secretário nacional nos ministérios de Desenvolvimento Social e da Cidadania.

Botelho ressalta que a urgência e o impacto da pandemia alteraram o curso das conversas que vinham sendo travadas no ano passado sobre a reformulação das políticas de assistência, trazendo à pauta legislativa propostas que excedem o propósito de ajuda emergencial, como o do estabelecimento de uma renda básica universal – que, conforme declarou à Conjuntura Econômica na edição de junho, considera menos eficiente para a redução da pobreza extrema no Brasil do que o programa Bolsa Família.

“Ainda não temos clareza do programa Renda Brasil, como anunciado pelo ministro Paulo Guedes. Não há detalhes de como vai funcionar, quais programas seriam fundidos ou alterados. Mas uma agenda que fortaleça a rede de estrutura de proteção social – tanto do ponto de vista orçamentário quanto de desenho – vem em um excelente momento”, afirma. Ele lembra desde a criação do Cadastro Único, em 2001, as políticas de assistência social ganharam instrumentos mais finos para identificação da população mais pobre, o que torna medidas como o abono salarial – um dos mais visados para corte, com gastos anuais da ordem de R$ 19 bilhões – sejam menos eficientes. No caso do abono salarial, este foca uma camada da população com emprego formal que em geral não é a mais vulnerável.

Outro ponto que deve ser tema no debate em torno do Renda Brasil é como este se integraria na proposta do ministro Guedes de aumentar a formalização da economia. “A princípio, é difícil dar o mesmo tratamento para quem está na pobreza extrema e quem está na informalidade. Portanto, espera-se que esse novo programa dialogue com outros, incentivando à participação no mercado de trabalho”, analisa. Algumas alternativas possíveis, cita o pesquisador, são conexões do Renda Brasil com iniciativas de qualificação e políticas específicas de cotização de emprego, ou os que constarão do também anunciado programa Verde Amarelo, do qual tampouco há detalhes.

Botelho reconhece normal a desconfiança gerada em torno de mudanças no Bolsa Família, que é uma política de eficácia mundialmente reconhecida, com 90% dos beneficiários entre os 40% mais pobres do país. “É natural a preocupação de que se alterem os eixos do programa. Mas considero que nesse ponto há clareza do que funciona bem e o que deve ser aprimorado, ainda que o risco político sempre exista”, diz.

Um dos elementos que indicarão a intenção de melhoria, cita, será a forma como as informações obtidas dos beneficiários do auxílio emergencial que estavam fora do Cadastro Único serão tratadas. A ideia passada pelo ministro Guedes de que o programa “tirou 38 milhões de brasileiros da invisibilidade, que também merecem ser incluídos no mercado de trabalho” deve ser tomada com cautela. “É preciso tomar cuidado antes de assumir esses dados como adequados para operar uma política social nova e permanente, como uma leitura de quem são os informais no Brasil”, alerta Botelho. Até o último levantamento disponível, os habilitados ao auxílio fora do cadastro eram 20 milhões de pessoas. “Podemos chegar aos 30 milhões, mas para definir bem esse grupo ainda é necessário cruzar as informações com outras bases, discutir a caracterização socioeconômica a ser usada, bem como de rendimento das famílias”, cita o pesquisador.

DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/noticias/assistencia

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LGCJ.: