US ECONOMICS

ECONOMY

FED. March 03, 2020. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, to 1 to 1‑1/4 percent. The Committee is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

Implementation Note issued March 3, 2020. Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on March 3, 2020:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to set the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances at 1.10 percent, effective March 4, 2020.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective March 4, 2020, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1 to 1-1/4 percent. In light of recent and expected increases in the Federal Reserve's non-reserve liabilities, the Committee directs the Desk to continue purchasing Treasury bills at least into the second quarter of 2020 to maintain over time ample reserve balances at or above the level that prevailed in early September 2019. The Committee also directs the Desk to continue conducting term and overnight repurchase agreement operations at least through April 2020 to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation. In addition, the Committee directs the Desk to conduct overnight reverse repurchase operations (and reverse repurchase operations with maturities of more than one day when necessary to accommodate weekend, holiday, or similar trading conventions) at an offering rate of 1.00 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account that are available for such operations and by a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day.

The Committee directs the Desk to continue rolling over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and to continue reinvesting all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities received during each calendar month. Principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities up to $20 billion per month will continue to be reinvested in Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding; principal payments in excess of $20 billion per month will continue to be reinvested in agency mortgage-backed securities. Small deviations from these amounts for operational reasons are acceptable.

The Committee also directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency mortgage-backed securities transactions."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/2 percentage point decrease in the primary credit rate to 1.75 percent, effective March 4, 2020. In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Minneapolis and New York.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

U.S. Department of State. 03/03/2020. U.S. Delegation to the 77th (27th Extraordinary) Session of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Coordination Committee, March 4-5, 2020, Geneva, Switzerland

The Department of State is pleased to announce the U.S. Delegation to the 77th (27th Extraordinary) Session of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Coordination Committee in Geneva, Switzerland, on March 4-5, 2020.  At the session, the 83 members of the WIPO Coordination Committee will vote on the nomination of a candidate for appointment to the post of WIPO Director General.  United States participation in WIPO underscores America’s economic reach and dedication to positive economic impact, open markets, secure commercial opportunities, and transparent investment and innovation.

Ambassador Andrew Bremberg, U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations and Other International Organizations in Geneva, will serve as the Head of Delegation.  Ambassador Robert Wood, U.S. Permanent Representative to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, and Mr. Andrei Iancu, Under Secretary of Commerce for Intellectual Property and Director of the United States Patent and Trademark Office, will serve as the Alternate Representatives.  Mr. T. Ulrich Brechbühl, Counselor of the Department of State, will serve as the senior U.S. government official.

Other members of the U.S. delegation include Ambassador Jessye Lapenn, U.S. Ambassador to the African Union; Mr. Jonathan Moore, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of International Organization Affairs; Ambassador Todd C. Chapman, Department of State Western Hemisphere Affairs Bureau; Shira Perlmutter, Chief Policy Officer and Director for International Affairs from the United States Patent and Trademark Office; and technical experts from the Department of State and Department of Commerce.

________________

ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRAZIL ECONOMICS

CORONAVÍRUS

BACEN. COPOM. 03 Março 2020. Coronavírus

O Banco Central monitora atentamente os impactos do surto de coronavírus nas condições financeiras e na economia brasileira.

No último Copom, o 15º parágrafo da Ata da 228ª reunião afirma: “O eventual prolongamento ou intensificação do surto implicaria uma desaceleração adicional do crescimento global, com impactos sobre os preços das commodities e de importantes ativos financeiros. O Copom concluiu que a consequência desses efeitos para a condução da política monetária dependerá da magnitude relativa da desaceleração da economia global versus a reação dos ativos financeiros.”

À luz dos eventos recentes, o impacto sobre a economia brasileira proveniente da desaceleração global tende a dominar uma eventual deterioração nos preços de ativos financeiros.

O Banco Central enfatiza que as próximas duas semanas permitirão uma avaliação mais precisa dos efeitos do surto de coronavirus na trajetória prospectiva de inflação no horizonte relevante de política monetária.

GOLDMAN SACHS. PORTAL G1. Valor Econômico. 03/03/2020. Goldman Sachs revisa Selic para 3,75% e prevê alta de 1,5% no PIB em 2020. Banco esperava crescimento de 2,2% para a economia brasileira em projeção anterior.

Embora tenha indicado uma interrupção no ciclo de flexibilização da política monetária, o Banco Central do Brasil (BC) deve efetuar dois novos cortes de 0,25 ponto percentual na taxa básica de juros (Selic), diante de um cenário de menor crescimento econômico e de confluência entre grandes bancos centrais por mais estímulos à economia global.

É o que dizem os economistas do Goldman Sachs em relatório enviado a clientes. Para eles, há “uma probabilidade não negligenciável de 40% de um corte de 0,25 ponto já na reunião de 18 de março”.

Além de esperar o juro a 3,75% no fim do ano, o Goldman Sachs também reduziu sua projeção para o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do Brasil neste ano. O banco americano espera, agora, uma expansão de 1,5%, enquanto antes projetava um PIB de 2,2% em 2020.

Goldman Sachs não foi o único a rever a estimativa de crescimento para baixo de 3%. No novo cenário traçado pela Capital Economics, com as perspectivas de impacto do coronavírus, a consultoria passou a prever um avanço de 1,3% para a economia brasileira neste ano.

Corte extraordinário de juros nos EUA

Diante do temor de um impacto maior na economia por conta da epidemia de coronavírus, o Fed (banco central dos EUA) decidiu fazer um corte emergencial nos juros, de 0,5 ponto percentual, para o intervalo entre 1% e 1,25%. A redução representou a primeira decisão realizada numa reunião extraordinária desde a crise de 2008.

No relatório, o Goldman destaca que os bancos centrais da América Latina enfrentem “compromissos complexos e potencialmente desfavoráveis” ao decidir como calibrar suas respostas de política monetária.

“Caso as pressões de depreciação da moeda se intensifiquem, esperamos que a maioria dos BCs adote intervenções no mercado de câmbio com mais força, a fim de ancorar as moedas locais e evitar uma desancoragem com potencial econômico e financeiro.”

DOCUMENTO: https://www.goldmansachs.com/index.html

________________

LGCJ.: