US ECONOMICS

INTERNATIONAL TRADE / US - CHINA

USTR. 01/15/2020. Economic and Trade Agreement Between the Government of the United States and the Government of the People’s Republic of China

Washington, DC – To view the text of the agreement and fact sheets about the agreement, click on the following links:

• Economic and Trade Agreement: https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/Economic_And_Trade_Agreement_Between_The_United_States_And_China_Text.pdf
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• Fact Sheets: https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china/phase-one-trade-agreement/fact-sheets

THE WHITE HOUSE. January 15, 2020. FACT SHEETS. President Donald J. Trump is Signing a Landmark Phase One Trade Agreement with China

From day one, my Administration has fought tirelessly to achieve a level playing field for the American worker.

President Donald J. Trump

SIGNING A LANDMARK PHASE ONE TRADE AGREEMENT: Today, President Trump is signing a new, fully-enforceable Phase One Trade Agreement with China.

• President Trump is making good on his promise to fix the failed policies of the past and deliver fairer trade for the United States.
• This historic agreement will begin to rebalance our vital trade partnership with China and benefit both of our countries.
• The signing of this agreement will be an incredible boost for American businesses, farmers, manufacturers, and innovators.

ENACTING CRITICAL REFORMS: China has agreed to make significant structural reforms in a wide range of critical areas.

• This agreement will help level the playing field for America’s innovators to compete and win.
• Importantly, the reforms included in the agreement are fully enforceable and include a strong dispute resolution system to ensure effective implementation and enforcement.
• For the first time in any trade agreement, China agreed to end its practice of forcing foreign companies to transfer their technology to Chinese companies in order to gain market access.
• China will address numerous longstanding intellectual property concerns in the areas of trade secrets, trademarks, enforcement against pirated and counterfeit goods, and more.
• China agreed to strong commitments on currency practices regarding currency devaluations and exchange rates.
• The agreement addresses a wide range of trade and investment barriers that have prevented American financial services companies from being able to compete in China.
• The agreement addresses structural barriers that have unfairly limited United States food and agricultural exports.

• The agreement includes significant commitments by China on accepting United States agricultural biotechnology products.

REBALANCING TRADE: This agreement will begin rebalancing our trade relationship with China and provide new opportunity for American businesses and farmers.

• As a part of the new agreement, China has pledged to increase imports of American goods and services by at least $200 billion.

• China’s increase in United States imports will take place over the next 2 years, and the trajectory is expected to continue even after 2021.

• This increase will make important progress in rebalancing the United States-China trade relationship.

• China will be making purchases of United States manufactured goods, agriculture, energy, and services under this deal.
• China has agreed to purchase between $40 and $50 billion in American agricultural goods each year for two years – providing a massive boost to America’s hardworking farmers.

THE WHITE HOUSE.  January 15, 2020. REMARKS. Remarks by President Trump After Signing the U.S.-China Phase One Trade Agreement

THE PRESIDENT: So you have Steve Schwarzman, you have Nelson Peltz, and they will comment a little bit on the — how about my life?

MR. PELTZ:  Unbelievable.

THE PRESIDENT:  And we just found this group.

MR. PELTZ:  These are your friends, right?  (Laughs.)

THE PRESIDENT:  So the great Steve Schwarzman, the great Nelson Peltz, they’re going to comment on the deal with China.  We’re then going and having a little lunch, and you’re going to be invited in.  But you may take some questions.

Okay, Steve?  We’ll see you in a little while.  Thank you.

MR. SCHWARZMAN:  I think the new U.S.-China trade agreement is a very important thing.  It opens the door to future improvements and helps affect changing — the nature of the relationship between the two countries.  So it’s a very important day.  Both countries are enthusiastic about it.  Thank you.

MR. PELTZ:  World-shaking event today.  Really, never would I have ever imagined that we could ever do something like this and keep the tariffs in place at the same time.  But it’s also very important because it’s a major step for world peace.  Thank you very much.

MR. PILLSBURY:  Hi, Jeff.  I’m Michael Pillsbury.  I just wanted to say, the President today went around to everybody in the room — senators, congressmen, business representatives; quite a few companies were here — and he singled out each person for their contribution and how the new trade agreement will help each one of them.  So I was very impressed.

The Chinese comment was, this is a historical intersection or a crossroads.  And the Chinese commentary is really focused on the global importance for both global prosperity and global peace, the Chinese side said, coming out of the trade agreement.

So the implications of this agreement — I, as an outside adviser from Hudson Institute — the implications are being brought up by the Chinese as global, not a mere short-term or narrow trade agreement.

So thank you very much.  And I want to single out the Jeff Mason coverage of the U.S.-China trade talks, along with Bob Davis and Anna Swanson, as really quite accurate over these last 18 months.  Thanks.

Q    Thank you, sir.

END

THE WHITE HOUSE. January 15, 2020. REMARKS. Remarks by President Trump at Signing of the U.S.-China Phase One Trade Agreement

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. Please. We greatly appreciate your joining us at this White House event. This is a very important and remarkable occasion.

Today, we take a momentous step — one that has never been taken before with China — toward a future of fair and reciprocal trade, as we sign phase one of the historic trade deal between the United States and China. Together, we are righting the wrongs of the past and delivering a future of economic justice and security for American workers, farmers, and families.

I want to thank President Xi, who is watching as we speak — and I’ll be going over to China in the not-too-distant future to reciprocate — but I want to thank President Xi, a very, very good friend of mine. We’ve — we’re representing different countries. He’s representing China. I’m representing the U.S. But we’ve developed an incredible relationship. But I want to thank him for his cooperation and partnership throughout this very complex process. Our negotiations were tough, honest, open, and respectful — leading us to this really incredible breakthrough. Most people thought this could never happen. It should have happened 25 years ago, by the way. But that’s okay.

A man who also has become a good friend of mine and somebody who’s very, very talented and very capable, we’re delighted to be joined by Vice Premier Liu He, Ambassador Cui, and many other representatives from the People’s Republic of China.

We are especially proud of the efforts of Vice President Mike Pence, who is with us. And, Mike, I’d like to have you say a few words, please.

VICE PRESIDENT PENCE: Thank you, Mr. President. It’s an honor to be here with you, with Vice Premier Liu He, with our Treasury Secretary, with Ambassador Lighthizer, and with so many distinguished guests, members of Congress, and governors from around the country. This is a good day for America, China, and the world. And it’s an honor to be with you.

Mr. President, we gather here today, thanks to your leadership, at a time that the American economy is booming. With the strong support of members of Congress who are gathered here, we are now experiencing an economy that’s created more than 7 million jobs. The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low. The average American’s household income has risen by more than $5,000. That’s all a result of your commitment to cut taxes, roll back regulation, unleash American energy. But it also reflects your commitment to free, fair, and reciprocal trade.

Early in this administration, you made it clear that the era of economic surrender was over. And you took a strong stand for American jobs and American workers. You said to our friends in China that things had to change. And thanks to your leadership, today the change begins. (Applause.)

Thanks to your efforts, Mr. President, we announced today great progress on protecting intellectual property, on preventing forced technology transfer and currency manipulation. And I know it means so much to you — the greatest impact may well be on American agriculture. Some $40- to $50 billion in purchases secured in this deal that will result in greater prosperity for farmers all across the land.

And, Mr. President, your commitment to a growing and prosperous America has been the centerpiece of your leadership. And today, with the signing of phase one, it’s one more example of your commitment to put American jobs and American workers first. And we recognize, as you do, Mr. President, that differences will remain between our two nations. But today is the start of a new chapter in trade relation between the two largest economies in the world.

But I can assure the American people that this President will continue to stand firm and put America first, even as we forge a more productive relationship with China and with the world.

Mr. President, you know there’s an ancient Chinese proverb that says, “Men see only the present, but Heaven sees the future.” So let today be the beginning of a brighter future, more prosperous for the American people, the Chinese people, and the world. Thank you, Mr. President. (Applause.)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you, Mike. An incredible job. Incredible guy.

I also want to give special thanks to our U.S. Trade Representative, who’s been kept very busy. (Laughter.) He’s doing a lot of deals. We’ll have another big one next week. It should get approved very shortly, and that’ll be tremendous, with Canada and Mexico. But we’ll talk about that next week.

But Robert Lighthizer — are we keeping you busy enough? Huh? Poor guy can’t sleep. He tosses and turns. What happened to him?

AMBASSADOR LIGHTHIZER: Here. I’m sorry. That was dropped. And —

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Oh, okay. Thanks.

AMBASSADOR LIGHTHIZER: I’m all purpose. (Laughter.)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Mike. Mike. Mike said — that’s right, you are all-purpose, come to think. (Laughter.)

But Bob Lighthizer is really an outstanding guy. He gets along with people. He’s smart, he’s sharp. And he understands trade better than anybody. When I first took this, I said, “I got to get the best guy.” And all signs pointed to Robert Lighthizer. So thank you very much, Bob. Thank you very much. (Applause.)

I have one question: Was this an easier job or a tougher job than you thought?

AMBASSADOR LIGHTHIZER: It was tougher than I thought. (Laughter.)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I had a feeling you might say that. Also, our great Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, has worked with Bob hand in hand. And thank you very much, Steve. Great job. (Applause.)

So this really is a landmark agreement. But along with them, we had the exceptional efforts of Jared Kushner. Where is Jared? Where is Jared? (Applause.) Our brilliant Jared. Great job, Jared. He worked hard. He left a beautiful, nice, very prosperous real estate business, and came here. And, I can tell you, that was harder. This is harder than real estate in New York, isn’t it, Jared? Right?

MR. KUSHNER: A lot harder.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: But you’ve done a fantastic job. You don’t get people like that. So thank you very much. And, Ivanka, nice to have you here. Thank you, honey.

Also somebody that I’ve heard for 35 years. His voice is just — a great gentleman, a friend of mine, but a great gentleman. We brought him in and he has been outstanding. The only problem is he doesn’t like going on television very much. He’s a little bit shy about that. Larry Kudlow. Where’s Larry? (Applause.) Where is Larry?

We had a day where the market went down $1 trillion. Think of that. In other words, it was one of those few days, because we’ve had 141 days where we hit all-time highs. And we just broke — as you know, we just broke the 29,000 mark on the Dow, just now, as we were walking in. The market is up substantially today. (Applause.) We have all these business leaders. I’m sure they don’t care.

But Larry Kudlow went out into the beautiful lawns of the White House. Actually, he was standing in the middle of the Rose Garden. He had a beautiful scarf waving in the wind. He was everything perfect, right out of Greenwich, Connecticut. (Laughter.) And he started talking. And by the time he finished, I said, “You just made a trillion dollars. A trillion.” (Laughter.) Because the market went up like 250 points. I said, “Larry, what the hell did you say?” (Laughter.) And it didn’t matter. But we were even. We went from being a trillion down to even, and that was pretty good.

Larry, you’ve been fantastic. Thank you very much. Appreciate it. (Applause.)

And, by the way, I just see in the audience our great Ambassador to China, right? Governor. So we had the governor of Iowa, and he loves China. And he’s the long- — you’re the longest-serving governor in the history of our country. Like 24 years. And I called him. I said, “Governor, you have to do me a favor.” Because I remember one conversation I had with him. I was going in to make a speech, before the election, and he said, “Sir, please don’t say anything bad about China.” It’s the first time anyone ever said that to me. (Laughter.) And I said, “Who is this guy?” He’s the governor of Iowa. He just said, “Don’t say bad about China.” So I had to rip up about half of my speech, right? (Laughter.)

And I said, “Why?” And he said, “Well, we do a lot of business. I’ve been dealing with China for 35 years, with corn and all of the different things.” And he told me a story that was amazing. He said, “You know, 35 years ago, when I started, I met a man named Xi. He wasn’t President then; he was a young man.” And the governor came back. He told his wife, he said — this is 35 years ago. And it’s documented. He said, “I just met the future President of China.”

And nobody thought much about it. And you know what? Twenty-eight years later, you turned out to be right. And you have been an incredible ambassador. And they like each other so much. So when it came time to picking the important position of ambassador, I said, “Haven’t you had enough after 24 years being governor of Iowa?” He said, “If you want me to do that.” And it’s been a great — you’ve been a great help. Thank you very much, Ambassador. (Applause.) I appreciate it. Done a great job. Nobody could have done that job better.

A man — I think I can go on the opposite side of the spectrum, perhaps, from the governor. His attitude is a little different. Our trade advisor, Peter Navarro. (Laughter.) Right, Peter? He’s a little different. We have all types. We have all types.

A Deputy Chief of Staff, Chris Liddell, who’s been with us for a long time, and he’s done a fantastic job and had a great business career.

Commerce Secretary — a legend on Wall Street — Wilbur Ross. (Applause.) Where’s Wilbur? Thank you. Wilbur, thank you.

A man who knows agriculture as well as anybody in the world. We were looking for an agricultural person, and we wanted to go political, and we were looking for somebody that would fit perfectly. And Sonny came in, and it was over. I learned more in that half hour about agriculture than I — Joni, right? — than I could ever have learned, possibly. Sonny Perdue has been incredible. And we’re taking care of our farmers — that, I can tell you. (Applause.) So, Sonny, thank you very much. Great job. Thank you. Thank you, Sonny.

And a woman — transportation is going very well. She’s done an incredible job. We’re getting approvals down now from 20 years — 21 years to 2 years. And it may get rejected for environmental or other reasons. But we have it, Lindsey, down to about two years. A highway which would have taken 19 to 20 years to get approval, we have it down to 2. And we want to get it down to one. And if it doesn’t work, we’re going to say, “You don’t build it.” But you’re not going to wait 22 years to find out you can’t build the highway.

And she has been fantastic: Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao. (Applause.) Thank you, Elaine. Thank you, Elaine.

So we have tremendous numbers of people here, and I’m saying, “Do I introduce them?” But I think I sort of should because what the hell. This is a big celebration. And, by the way, some of the congressmen may have a vote, and I don’t — it’s on the impeachment hoax. So, if you want, you go out and vote. (Laughter.) I’d rather have (inaudible) — it’s not going to matter, because it’s gone very well. (Laughter.) But I’d rather have you voting than sitting here, listening to me introduce you, okay? (Laughter.)

They have a hoax going on over there. Let’s take care of it. So, if any of you guys want to leave, we will not be — where is Kevin McCarthy? The great Kevin McCarthy.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: (Inaudible.)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Okay, good. I’m glad. (Laughter.) Can I be honest? (Laughter.) I’m glad. I like it much better that way. And, by — the House folks, 195 to nothing. And we got three Democrats, and one of them actually left the Democratic Party, came over Republican. And what a job you’ve done. So I just want to thank you all. Really tough. I love that.

So we have some incredible people in the audience, and I’d just like to introduce a few — a very good friend of mine — two very good friends of mine: Sheldon Adelson, Miriam Adelson. Thank you very much, both, for coming. They’ve been tremendous supporters of us — (applause) — and the Republican Party. And they’re great people.

A man who always liked me — because he’s smart, so smart — (laughter) — the great Lou Dobbs. You know, at first, he said, “He’s the best since Reagan.” Then, he got to know me more and more, and he said, “He’s even better than Reagan.” (Laughter.) Then, a few weeks ago, somebody told me — and I watch all the time, but somebody has got a very important show, actually. Tremendous audience and very — everybody in this room watches.

But Lou Dobbs, he said, “He’s the greatest of them all.” I said, “Does that include Washington and Lincoln?” (Laughter.) And he said yes. Now, I don’t know if he was for real, but that’s okay. But the great — he is — the great Lou Dobbs. Thank you very much, Lou. (Applause.) Thank you. Great show, Lou.

And a man who everybody knows — he knows more than probably everybody in this room put together. He’s seen it all. And he made a statement to Jared. Jared came in and said, “You know, Henry Kissinger told me, ‘How did the President ever pull this off?'” I said, “Can I quote Henry on that?” Because Henry is outstanding. And when Henry is impressed with something, then I’m impressed. And, Henry, we’re impressed with you. Thank you very much for being here. (Applause.) Thank you, Henry. Thank you.

And, Michael Pillsbury, thank you very much. And, Susan Pillsbury, thank you very much. And you’ve been saying some fantastic things about China and about us. And we have a good partnership. This is going to be something that’s going to be very special. We’re going to talk about it in a second.

A friend of mine, Steve Schwarzman, is here. Steve, I know you have no interest in this deal at all. (Applause.) I’m surprised you’re not actually sitting over here on the ledge of the stage as opposed to — but Steve has done a great job and very good relationship with China and very good relationship with us.

Nelson Peltz is here, a friend of mine. Where’s Nelson? Nelson is around here someplace. Hi, Nelson. What are you doing sitting all the way back there, Nelson?

MR. PELTZ: (Inaudible.) (Laughter.)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: How’s General Electric doing, Nels? He’ll straighten it out. You’ll straighten it out. He came in nice and late. (Laughs.) He didn’t get in too early, that’s for sure.

Hank Greenberg is here. Hank. If they took care of Hank, they wouldn’t have had the problems that they had. Where’s Hank? Hank Greenberg. (Applause.) Oh, Hank. If Hank stayed there like he should have, you wouldn’t have had the problem that you ended up having with our economy. But it’s great to have you, Hank. Thank you very much.

We have some tremendous senators here and some really incredible people. And I want to just say, the ones that are here, if I miss your name, stand up and I will promise to say it, because a lot of people wanted to be here.

A senator who has been new to the game, and he took it up so quickly and so easily, and he ran a race that was undoable. The person he ran against was unbeatable. Nice woman, Heidi, but unbeatable. And then Kevin Cramer said, “I can beat her.” And I think he only won by about 12 points, right? And they say he’s the only man in North Dakota that can win. And I said, “We’ll do it.” And I had him in my office three times and I said, “Kevin, you got to do it.” And I said, “He’s doing it.” And he turned me down. (Laughter.) Then he came back again — well, this time, I know he’s doing it. He calls me back and he said, “Sir, I’m not going to do it.” He said, “You know, in all fairness, I’ll call you back.” But I never give up, do I? So now, instead of being a congressman, he’s a senator. And you’ve been great. And thank you very much. Kevin Cramer. (Applause.)

Mike Crapo, a friend of mine. These are all warriors. These are — incredible. Mike — thank you very much, Mike. What a job you do. Mike is one of those guys — goes unsung, but behind the scenes, there’s nobody sharper, smarter, and we all respect you and love you. Every one of these people. Thank you very much, Mike. Appreciate it.

Steve Daines. Same thing I can say for my Steve. And he’s got a hell of a football team. How did they do this year? All right? They going to be back? They won it again? They have a good team. They have a good team.

Joni Ernst. You got ethanol, so you can’t be complaining, right? (Laughter.) Steve — (laughs) — Steve, that’s good for you too.

You know, Joni would call me, along with Chuck Grassley; they’d call as a tandem. You can’t beat the two of them. All they want to know about is ethanol. Ethanol. But we got it done.

Deb Fischer — same boat, right, Deb? You want that ethanol for Nebraska.

And a friend of mine, Lindsey Graham. He’s become a great friend of mine and he’s an outstanding man. He loves our country. He really does love our country. He works like hell. Do you do anything other than politics?

SENATOR GRAHAM: Golf.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: He’s likes golf, too. He likes golf too. Much better golfer than people would understand. He likes golf. But he’s a great guy. You get it done. He brings people together.

Chuck Grassley. Where’s Chuck? Where’s Chuck? Chuck. Will you stand up for a second? This guy is the toughest guy. He can say something in a nice manner and everybody is afraid. Right? (Laughter.) He made Comey choke during the hearing. He said, “Did you leak anything to the press?” “What? What? What? What?” Comey choked like a dog, and he was being nice when he said it.

Chuck is outstanding. Unbeatable — between you and the governor, those are two pretty good ones, right? Unbeatable under any circumstance. He makes the rounds like virtually every night. I think you still have never missed a vote. Have you ever missed a vote? He was — Chuck was — huh?

SENATOR GRASSLEY: Since 1993.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Ninety-three. He was in my office a month ago, and I thought it was very rude. He said, “Sir, I’m sorry, I have to leave.” “Why?” That was right in the middle of a meeting. I said, “Why?” He said, “Because I have to vote and I’ve never missed a vote” or some- — I said, “How many years?” He said, “1993.” That’s a long time. I said, “You know what? Go leave. That’s a good record to keep.” Because he’s a solid, reliable, unbelievable person, and he’s a friend of mine. So thank you very much, Chuck. (Applause.)

And let them know also about that ethanol, Chuck. We brought home the ethanol. Man, when you have those two calling — they were not nice about it, Jerry Moran. I want to tell you — where’s Jerry? Jerry, they were not nice about the ethanol. I want to say that.

And Jerry, with what he did with — we’re working together — very closely together with the vets. And it’s incredible what’s happened with what we approved on Choice. It’s made a whole big difference. You don’t hear complaints about the VA anymore. Do you notice? They go out, see a doctor. If they have to wait two months, or if they have to wait two days, they go out and see a doctor. Jerry Moran, folks. He did a fantastic job. (Applause.)

Rob Portman, great friend of ours from Ohio. Rob, fantastic job. I just left Ohio. They love you. They love you there, and you’ve done a fantastic job. And you are my friend. Rob Portman. (Applause.) Thanks, Rob.

Pat Roberts. A man from Kansas, who is going to be leaving us. I cannot believe that you’re not running again. You have at least — at least another 12 good, solid years in the Senate if you wanted them. You have to do it. You’re sure, right? Okay. He’s made that decision. But, Pat, thank you very much. And this is very important to Pat and to Mike Rounds, because what’s happened here, if you look, it’s so much about everything you stand for, especially the farmers. And the farmers are going to be so happy.

Where is Mike Rounds? Mike? Mike? Stand up, Mike. He’s another one. He was brutal to me. He would call: “I got to get this done. You got to get it done.” Right? Thank you very much, Mike. Fantastic job.

And Dan Sullivan, from the great state of Alaska. And I stop there every time I can, right? And I won by a lot. They like me in Alaska, right? But they like you too, Dan. And thank you very much.

Kevin McCarthy, as you know, left for the hoax. (Laughter.) Well, we have to do that, otherwise it becomes a more serious hoax. And Mark Meadows is a friend of mine, right from the beginning. Thank you, Mark, very much. Special guy. Special friend. Great wife, too. His wife actually supported me long before him, but he thinks I don’t know that. (Laughter.) She went on “Women for Trump,” when it wasn’t so fashionable. Like, on the worst day of my life, she was doing “Women for Trump” tours with 50 women on buses all over the great state of North Carolina. She’s fantastic.

Vern Buchanan. Thank you very much. Thank you, Vern. Great job you’ve done.

Mike Conaway. Thanks, Mike. Thank you, Mike.

By the way, Kristi, thank you for being here. I didn’t know you were going to be here. Thank you. Stand up. We’re going to do a big fireworks display, right? Mount Rushmore. We’re going over — I think I’m going to try and be there on July 4th.

So, the governor called. She ran a great race, a tough race. That was a tough competitor you had, right? A big star. And — but she was a bigger star, it turned out, Lindsey. But she said, “Do you think we can get fireworks back at Mount Rushmore?” I said, “Why?” They haven’t been there for — like for 20 years. I said, “Why?” “Environmental reasons.” I said, “You mean you can’t have fireworks because of the environment?” “Yeah, environmental reasons.” I said, “What can burn? It’s stone.” You know, it’s stone. It’s granite. (Laughter.)

So nobody knew why; they just said, “Environmental reasons.” So I called up our people. And within about 15 minutes, we got it approved, and you’re going to have your first big fireworks display at Mount Rushmore, and I’ll try and get out there if I can. (Applause.) Okay? Right? That’ll be great. Thank you very much for being here. Thanks, Kristi.

Mike Kelly. Where’s Mike? Mike, thank you very much, Mike. What a friend.

Drew Ferguson. What a friend. These are great people, I’m telling you.

Darin LaHood. Darin. Thank you very much, Darin. Great job.

Michael McCaul. You did a phenomenal job three, four days ago, Mike, with your speech on the floor. That was incredible. Very inspiring.

Patrick McHenry. He’s a — number one, he’s a great guy. And number two, he’s got the best name in politics. If I had that name, I would have won 20 years ago. (Laughter.) Patrick McHenry.

A man who’s got such courage — honestly, he deserves a medal. He’ll probably get one. We still have to win to get medals though, right? We can’t give medals if we don’t win. But this guy has never lost in his life. He is so tough and so smart. Devin Nunes. Thank you. Stand up, Devin. Everybody knows him. (Applause.)

What they put him through — (applause) — what these phony people, what these dirty cops and all of the others put you through — and, man, you survived it better than ever, and everyone respects you. And even Meadows respects you, and he respects very few people. (Laughter.) So, thank you, Devin, very much. Great job.

Adrian Smith. Thank you, Adrian. Thank you very much. And don’t feel — again, you guys are all set. I’ve introduced you — not much more for you, but you know. But you’re going to hear some great things about China, and you’re going to hear some also great things now because we have a who’s who of the world of business with us today.

David Abney, of UPS. David? Where are you, David? You can stand up, if anybody wants to. If you don’t want it — you know, if your company is not doing well, you may not want to stand up. (Laughter.) But UPS is doing very well. There will be a couple that will just sort of slink back into their chair. They’ll pretend they’re not here. Thank you, David. Great job you’ve done.

Darius Adamczyk, of Honeywell. A great company. Thank you very much. Great equipment you make. I have a lot of it. I use a lot of it, and the country uses a lot of it.

Ajay Banga, of Mastercard. Thank, Ajay. Fantastic job.

Josh Bolten, Business Roundtable. Thank you, Josh. Great job.

David Calhoun. He’s got a very easy company to run. He just took over Boeing. Where’s David? David. Where’s David?

MR. CALHOUN: Right here.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Stand up, David. See, he didn’t want to stand. Let me tell you: It’s not your fault. You just got there. (Laughter.) You’ll straighten it out quickly, please.

MR. CALHOUN: We will.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Okay. I have no doubt. It’s a great company.

Les Daniels, USTR, ACTPN. Okay?

Dan DiMicco. We’ve been fighting the steel things for 20 years together, Dan. I’d like to say “30,” but I don’t want to do that. Right? We’ve been fighting together for a lot longer than 20 years on the —

MR. DIMICCO: We’re winning.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: And now we’re winning. Finally. It took 25, 30 years. It took a little change at the top, didn’t it? But you’ve been a warrior for — for getting really taken advantage of as a country. And you’ve been a warrior, and I appreciate it. Right from the beginning, Dan and I — we — it was a fight of two people against the world.

Tom Donohue, U.S. Chamber of Commerce. And that’s — where’s Tom? Thank you, Tom. Great job.

Brian Duperreault, of AIG. Do you know that company, Hank? AIG. Did you ever hear of AIG, Hank Greenberg? Thank you very much. I appreciate it, Brian.

Mary Erdoes, JPMorgan Chase. They just announced earnings, and they were incredible. Where — where are you? They were very substantial. Will you say, “Thank you, Mr. President” at least? Huh? (Laughter.) I made a lot of bankers look very good. But you’re doing a great job. Say hello to Jamie. I think we’re seeing him tomorrow.

Nancy Falotico, of Ford. Nancy, where are you? Hi, Nancy. So young. So young. That’s very impressive. Thank you very much. You’re doing a good job.

Jim Fitterling, Dow Chemical. Incredible company. Jim. Thank you, Jim.

Jack Fusco, Cheniere. Jack, thank you. Great.

Meg Gentle, Tellurian. Where are you? Hi. Congratulations.

Ken Griffin, Citadel. What a guy he is. Where are you, Ken? Where the hell is he? He’s trying to hide some of his money. Look, he doesn’t want to stand up. Where the hell is Ken? See, Steve, you’ll stand, and he’s very quiet about it. He’s in here someplace; he just doesn’t want to stand.

Harold Hamm. He puts a straw into the ground, and oil pours out. (Laughter.) It’s true. Other guys spend billions and billions of dollars; they can’t find oil. This guy takes a straw, he goes like this, and oil pops up. Harold, my friend. He’s been with me from the beginning. Right, Harold? He was with me from the day I came down the escalator with our First Lady.

By the way, do I see John Thune in this audience? John — how the hell do I not introduce John? They didn’t have your name down. I can’t believe it. Will you stand up? What a great guy he is. (Applause.)

VICE PRESIDENT PENCE: Kevin Brady and Shelley Moore Capito.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I also see Kevin Brady. Thanks, Kevin. Great job on the tax cuts.

Al Kelly, Visa. Al Kelly. Al Kelly, thank you.

Ryan Lance, ConocoPhillips. Ryan, great. You’re doing fantastically well.

Most of you, I can say, you’re doing fantastically well. “Thank you, Mr. President.” (Laughter.) Don’t worry about it. Don’t feel guilty.

Alan MacDonald, Citibank. Citibank. (Applause.) Good. Boy, you brought that back so far. I remember seven, eight years ago. But Citibank is doing fantastically well.

Raymond McDaniel, Moody’s. Good. Are you giving us good ratings, Raymond, please? Okay? We’re doing pretty good, right?

Sanjay Mehrotra, of Micron. Incredible company, the job you’re doing. Sanjay. Thank you, Sanjay, very much.

Steve Mollenkopf, Qualcomm. They had a merger going, and I said they should let that merger go by. I called up President Xi, and I — they rejected it. Remember? And then they accepted it. By that time, you were off to another deal. You didn’t even want it. But nobody else could have done that, right? But you could have had it.

Jim Morrison, of Jeep. What a great brand Jeep is. What a job they’ve done. That is a great brand. And congratulations.

Larry Nichols, Devon Energy. Larry? Larry. Thank you, Larry. Great job. These are great people.

Jason Oxman, ITI. Jason, thank you. Great job you’re doing.

Scott Schenkel, eBay. I sign things, and the next night, I see them on eBay. They’re sold. (Laughter.) They’re sold for a lot of money. I said, “Sir, could I have you just — would you sign my sneaker?” “Yes.” Then, two nights later, I see it on eBay, selling for $5,000. I say, “What kind of people are these, Lindsey?” Terrible. (Laughter.) Sometimes it’s the senators and the congressmen that do it. That’s — (laughter).

Gary Shapiro, CTA. Gary. Great job, Gary.

Greg Smith, of Boeing, also. And, Greg, get that going. Work together. Get it going. You know, Boeing makes a tremendous portion of our GDP. I had no idea it was such a big company. It was — I mean, I know it was big, but it could have up to a half a point of GDP. Some people say even more. So we’ve got to get that one moving fast, and it’s going to be better than ever, I think.

Mike Sommers, API. Mike? Thank you, Mike.

Paul Taylor, of Fitch. That’s another good ratings group. Are we doing okay at Fitch? Good. Otherwise, I wouldn’t have introduced you, if I thought — (laughter).

Robert Thornson [Thomson], News Corp. Where’s Rupert? Is Rupert not here? I can’t believe Rupert is not here. Is he the greatest though, or what? He was going to get $40 billion for his thing. He sold all the stuff he didn’t want. He sold it to some group that doesn’t like Trump as much; that’s the only problem. But he was going to get $40 billion, and he said, “I don’t know, they keep bidding this thing up.” They end up paying what? Seventy-five billion? And he kept the best stuff. So Rupert is doing right, huh? Rupert is fantastic, and that whole family is just a great family. So say hello, Robert.

And John Thornton. Oh, John. Where’s John? Where’s John? John is great. Good job, John. (Applause.) Thank you for all the help, too. Great job, John.

Jay Timmons, NAM. Jay, thank you very much. Thanks, Jay.

Stephen Vaughn, King and Spalding. Stephen. King and Spalding. I could use some good legal advice. Do you have some good lawyers over there? I could use some good lawyers, right? Ah, to hell with it. I just have to suffer through it the way I have all my life. (Laughter.) Somewhere along the line, they must be pretty good, right?

Jonathan Ward, Atlas Organization. Jonathan, thank you. Great job you’ve done.

Kevin Warsh. Kevin. Where’s Kevin? I don’t know, Kevin. I could have used you a little bit here. Why weren’t you more forceful when you wanted that job? Why weren’t you more forceful, Kevin? You’re a forceful person. In fact, I thought you were too forceful, maybe, for the job. And I would have been very happy with you.

But, Kevin, thank you for being here. You understand that very well, right? It bothers me when Germany and other countries are getting paid to borrow money. This is one — I don’t know where that all leads, but we have to pay. We’re the number one in the world, by far, and we have to pay for our money. Our interest rates are set high by the Fed. Our dollar is very high, and — relatively speaking. But when other countries get — literally, they’re under. They have negative rates — meaning, they’re under. They get paid. I love this. This concept is incredible. Again, you don’t know where the hell it leads. But you borrow money, and when you have to pay it back, they pay you. This is one that I like very much. And I’m going to talk to you about that, Lou Dobbs.

So we’re set at two. Tell me, why are we paying and other countries are getting money when they get paid back? I really want to know: Who are the people that buy this stuff? Who puts money into something when they say, “This is a guaranteed loss”? But that’s a whole different group of people than I know.

Glenn Youngkin, of Carlyle. Carlyle Group. Great group.

So, for decades, American workers, farmers, ranchers, manufacturers, and innovators have been hurt by the unfair trade with China. Forced technology transfer and intellectual property theft have been huge problems. Since China joined the World Trade Organization two decades ago, we have racked up nearly $5 trillion — the Vice Premier, I hope he’s not listening to this — (laughter) — in trade deficits, lost millions and millions of manufacturing jobs, and saw tens of thousands of factories close. And that had to do, also, with Mexico, and, to an extent, Canada.

What they did to this country with trade and trade deals — NAFTA. We had no deal with China. I mean, we had no deal. And it was like just easy pickings.

For years, politicians ran for office, promising action to remedy these practices, only to do nothing but allow them to continue. And it was pillage.

As a candidate for President, I vowed strong action. It’s probably the biggest reason why I ran for President, because I saw it for so many years. And I said, “How come nobody is doing something about it?” In the meantime, immigration, and building our military — also important. But that’s probably the biggest reason.

In June of 2016, in the great state of Pennsylvania, I promised that I would use every lawful presidential power to protect Americans from unfair trade and unfair trade practices. Unlike those who came before me, I kept my promise. They didn’t promise too hard but — (applause) — they didn’t do anything. And I actually think I more than kept my promise.

Now our efforts have yielded a transformative deal that will bring tremendous benefits to both countries. We have a great relationship with China, we have a great relationship with the leadership of China, and China fully understands that there has to be a certain reciprocity. There has to be. It cannot continue like this. It would be dangerous for it to continue like it was.

The agreement we signed today includes groundbreaking provisions in an area of critical importance to the United States: protecting intellectual property. So the deal you’re seeing today is a much bigger deal than — we have it very much guarded. They asked one of our Democratic — Cryin’ Chuck Schumer — “What do you think of the deal?” — two weeks ago. He had no idea what the deal was. Never saw the deal; it’s totally guarded.

“I don’t like it. I don’t like the deal,” he said. “Well, have you seen it?” “Yeah, I think I know what…” “Well, why don’t you like it?” “Well, they took the tariffs off.” Actually, we didn’t. He didn’t know anything about the deal. He just said exactly what probably you should say, as a politician. “How do you like the deal?” “I don’t like the deal.” “Do you know the deal?” “Uh, uh, sort of.” He never saw the deal. He knew nothing about it. He would love the deal, but he can’t say it, because he’s on the other party. But maybe Patrick would do the same thing, right?

But you know what? I would say that you shouldn’t. This is an unbelievable deal for the United States. And, ultimately, it’s a great deal for both countries. And it’s going to also lead to even a more stable peace throughout the world.

China is helping us with North Korea. China is helping us with a lot of the things that they can be helping us with — which you don’t see in a deal, but they have been very, very helpful with respect to Kim Jong Un, who has great respect for President Xi.

And it’s all a very, very beautiful game of chess, or a game of poker, or — I can’t use the word “checkers” because it’s far greater than any checker game that I’ve ever seen. But it’s a very beautiful mosaic.

But China is giving us a lot of help, and we’re giving them a lot of help on things that we help them with. And one of the things that we are also talking about is fentanyl. And President Xi has already instituted very strong penalties and arrested large numbers of people who are sending fentanyl into our country. That never happened before. (Applause.)

So China has made substantial and enforceable commitments regarding the protection of American ideas, trade secrets, patents, and trademarks. This was not, according to most — they didn’t know we covered any of this. We’ve covered a lot of this. It’s phase one. But they’re doing many more things in phase one than anyone thought possible.

China has also pledged firm action to confront pirated and counterfeit goods, which is a big problem for many of the people in the room — the counterfeiting. We’ll make sure that this happens, and we have very, very strong protection.

In addition, the agreement addresses forced technology transfer policies that can require companies to give away their know-how and trade secrets. So now, when Boeing has some work done over in China or wants to sell planes over in China, they don’t have to give up every single thing that they’ve ever — you know, that they’ve worked so hard to — to develop and to come up with. Are you guys hearing that? You don’t have to give up anything anymore. Just be strong. Just be strong. Don’t let it happen. But you don’t have to do that.

It was a terrible — it was a terrible situation going on there. And a lot of it was because our co- — our companies, I have to say this, were very weak. You were very weak. You gave up things that you didn’t have to give up. But now, legally, you don’t have to give them up.

Under this deal, transfers and licensing of technology will be based on market terms that are fully voluntary and reflect mutual agreement.

Phase one will also see China greatly expand imports of the — to the United States. We want to buy a lot of their product inexpensively.

But we have an additional $200 [billion]. They are going to be what — what is, to me, very important. Number one, they’re going to be spending much more than $200 billion over the next two years, including up to $50 billion just on agriculture alone.

And some of the numbers that I wrote down — on manufacturing, they’ll be spending $75 billion. They’ll be putting into our country, okay? They’re going to be putting into our country $75 billion on manufacturing. Fifty billion dollars’ worth of energy. So that’s great for our energy people. We’re the number one in the world now; we weren’t. We’re now the number-one energy group in the world. We’re bigger than Saudi Arabia, and we’re bigger than Russia. We’re bigger than everybody. (Applause.)

And for those people that are in the room that are very much into it, of which we have a lot of the oil and gas folks in the room: I’m approving some pipelines in Texas momentarily, which will give you — which would’ve taken 15 more years to get. But you’re going to have them very quickly. I mean, we take from a 15-year period to about a 2-month period, and I’m angry at my people for taking so long. Right?

But if we do that, we’ll be up about another 22 percent in oil and natural gas. So we have $50 million for — $50 billion for energy, $50 billion for agriculture, and $40- to $50 billion on services, including, Rob, financial services. So the banks are going to be doing great. Credit cards — all of the things that you do so well. You’re going to be able to now go into China and really do a job. And they’re going to be working with you.

One of the other things I have to say is that protection of intellectual property — we have very strong protection of intellectual property. A lot of people thought this deal was just a simple deal for — the farmers are going to get $50 billion. Remember I said, Lindsey, they have to go out and buy larger tractors?

China was doing $16 billion with the farmers. And they stopped. Why not? You know, they’re in a negotiation. So our people agreed to $20 [billion], and I said, “No, make it $50 [billion]. What difference does it make? Make it $50 [billion].” They say, “Sir, our farmers can’t produce that much.” I said, “I love our farmers. Let them tell me they can’t do it.” And I said, “Tell them to go out and buy a larger tractor. Buy a little more land.” But they’ll be able to do it. I have no doubt they’ll be able to do it. (Applause.)

So, the other thing that I think we have is the currency devaluation standards. We have a very strong standard for currency devaluation. And, in all due respect, China was one of the greats in history at doing that, and we’re going to work on it together. But currency devaluation will now have some very, very strong restrictions and very powerful restrictions. And we have just full — again, the word — one of the strongest things we have: total and full enforceability. And you know what that means: total, full enforceability on all of this.

So, the agreement tears down major market barriers for U.S. food and agricultural exports. China will now welcome American beef and pork, poultry, seafood, rice, dairy, infant formula, animal feed, biotechnology, and much, much more. Because frankly, you know, they were not doing things that they were supposed to be. And that’s okay. Because now they will. The deal will also benefit energy, manufacturing services, and all sectors of the economy.

And I will say this: This deal — again, they thought it was a 50-billion-dollar agricultural deal. Now it’s much more than $200 billion, of which 50 is agricultural. But the rest is in all of the other things that we just discussed, especially for financial. And you should really look at it. And you have a free pass. And you don’t have to worry about the 49 percent where you can’t own, because you’re going to be able to own now. And you’re not going to have to take partners that are forced upon you. It’s an incredible deal from that standpoint, too.

We’re delighted that the Chinese consumers will now enjoy the greater access to the best products on Earth — those made, grown, and raised right here in the USA.

So phase one, which has been really incredible — you know, we almost had the whole deal done, but this is better. This is a more detailed deal for this aspect of the deal. It was such a big deal before. And this is a much more — much more targeted, much more powerful deal for everything we’re doing, which is a very large part of the deal.

But we’re going to be starting phase two, as soon as this kicks in. We’ll be starting phase two. We’re leaving tariffs on, which people are shocked, but it’s great. But I will agree to take those tariffs off, if we are able to do phase two. In other words, we’re negotiating with the tariffs. We have 25 percent on $250 billion worth of goods. And then we’re bringing the 10 percent down to 7.5 percent on $300 billion worth of goods plus.

So — but I’m leaving them on, because otherwise we have no cards to negotiate with. And negotiating with Liu is very tough. But they will all come off as soon as we finish phase two. And that would be something that some people on Wall Street will love, but from what I see, they love this deal the way it is now. But we have very strong cards. And, frankly, China and I are going to start negotiating with Bob and Steve and everybody very, very shortly.

So, from this nation’s vibrant heartland to our gleaming cities, millions of workers and farmers and innovators have waited decades for this day. We never even had a deal with China. In all fairness, I don’t blame China. I blame the people that stood here before me. I don’t blame China. I told that to President Xi. I was in Beijing, making a speech, saying how they’re ripping us off. And guess what? He wasn’t too happy. I looked at him. I said, “He’s not happy.” And I said, “I better change the speech quickly.”

So I said, “I don’t blame him. I blame our Presidents.” And I’m right. We should’ve done the same thing to them, but we didn’t. We didn’t. We never had a deal with them. They’d do whatever they wanted it.

With this signing, we mark more than just an agreement; we mark a sea change in international trade. At long last, Americans have a government that puts them first at the negotiating table. First in trade. First in every deal, every decision, and every action we take with incredible enforceability.

As we move on to phase two, I look forward to continuing to forge a future of greater harmony, prosperity, and, really, commerce — commerce and — far beyond commerce, between the United States and China. This is something that — far beyond even this deal — it’s going to lead to a even stronger world peace.

We now have — we now have a big investment in each other and in getting along with each other. And this deal is phase one. We’ll probably be able to conclude it with phase two. We don’t expect to have a phase three. But it’s something that we all want to get done, and it’ll be a tremendously big deal. This is something that’s going to be so special, however, to our manufacturers, our farmers, our bankers, our service people. Nobody has ever seen anything like it. This is the biggest deal there is anywhere in the world, by far. And that’s good.

We’re doing another big one next week. But this is the biggest deal anybody has ever seen. And it can lead to being a deal that’s unprecedented, because China has 1.5 billion people, and ultimately, in phase two, we’re going to be opening up China to all of your companies. So I hope you folks can handle it.

So now I’d like to ask Ambassador Lighthizer and Secretary Mnuchin to say a few words, please. Thank you. (Applause.)

AMBASSADOR LIGHTHIZER: Mr. President, Mr. Vice President, Mr. Vice Premier: It is an honor to be here for this momentous event. The President has long fought for fair and balanced trade for Americans. He has, for years, complained about our enormous trade deficit with China and the unfair practices which have, in part, contributed to it.

Indeed, solving the trade crisis was a major objective of his campaign and of his administration. The United States and China are two great countries with two great economies, but two very different economic systems. It is imperative that we develop trade and economic rules and practices that allow us both to prosper. The alternative is not acceptable for either of us.

This phase one agreement is the result of over two years of hard work. It is an important part of the President’s economic plan, and it is a big step forward in writing the rules needed and developing the practices that we must have going forward.

This agreement will benefit both the United States and China. I am grateful to the President for allowing me to be part of this plan. I am grateful to Secretary Mnuchin, my friend with whom I have worked so closely on this and on so many other matters.

Finally, I would like to thank and acknowledge the more than 60 men and women at USTR and other agencies who have worked so hard on this, day and night, for so many months.

I should begin with Ambassador Jeffrey Gerrish, who’s my deputy, who led this effort. Thank you for your patriotism. (Applause.)

I would also like to single out Ambassador Gregory Doud, who is my agriculture deputy — (applause) — and the Assistant USTR responsible for this enormous effort, Terry McCartin. (Applause.)

This was a great — this was a great team effort by my office, as well as the Departments of Treasury, Agriculture, Commerce, and many others.

I should all also acknowledge the hard work of the Chinese side. Vice Premier Liu He is a leader who is diligent; patriotic; as near as I can tell, always working; and has proven himself honorable.

To appreciate — (applause) — we appreciate also the efforts of Minister Zhong. Thank you to Liao Min, his principal — the Vice Premier’s Principal Deputy, and the rest of your team. Once again, congratulations, President Trump. And congratulations, President Xi. (Applause.)

SECRETARY MNUCHIN: Thank you very much. Mr. President, Mr. Vice President, under your leadership, the economic policies of this administration are working. Tax cuts, regulatory relief, and now great trade deals are making the U.S. economy stronger and helping American business and workers and farmers.

This is an incredible accomplishment. I want to particularly thank Ambassador Lighthizer. You’ve done an extraordinary job leading this effort across, literally, in enormous resources. Every single agency contributed to this. The White House. This was a real team effort. So thank you very much for your extraordinary job.

I’d also like to thank the Vice Premier and his team. We could not have done this without all of you. This was a lot of hard work. And again, I’d like to thank you and President Xi. A great step forward, momentous agreement between our two countries. Thank you. (Applause.)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: By the way, I have to just tell you that a woman is in the room who loves her state so much. And I didn’t introduce her before because I wanted to say for — you have been so great. Would you please stand up, Shelley? West Virginia Senator. Thank you. Great. Thank you, Shelley. (Applause.)

So I want to, again, thank the Vice Premier for the work we’ve done together. It’s been — it’s been an incredible number of months. It was stop and go. And it looked like it was pretty much going to be stop and never go.

But I’d like to now invite you, on behalf of the great nation — and it is indeed a great nation. In fact, I’d like you to just relax a little while. Take it easy. Go out, see a movie. Tell President Xi I said, “President, go out. Have a round of golf. See a movie.” “No, no, no. I am too busy.”

But they are workers. This China is an incredible, incredible nation. And I’d like to have you say a few words. Mr. Vice Premier, please. (Applause.)

VICE PREMIER LIU: (Inaudible.) (Off-mic.)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Yes. Yes.

The Vice Premier would like to read a letter that was just sent to me, I found out, from President Xi. And we’ll ask the interpreter to come up, please. Okay? Thank you very much. That’s very nice.

VICE PREMIER LIU: (As interpreted.) Thank you, President Trump. Now, may I read out the message from President Xi Jinping to President Donald J. Trump?

(In English.) Sorry. (Laughter.)

(As interpreted.) Mr. President, as China and the United States sign the phase one trade agreement, I asked Vice Premier Liu He to bring to you my warm greetings.

As I said during our phone call on the 20th of December, last year, conclusion of the phase one trade agreement between China and the U.S. is good for China, for the U.S., and for the whole world.

It also shows that our two countries have the ability to act on the basis of equality and mutual respect, and work through dialogue and consultation to properly handle and effectively resolve relevant issues.

In the next step, the two sides need to implement the agreement in real earnest and optimize its positive impact so as to make even greater progress in China-U.S. trade and economic cooperation.

To maintain healthy and steady growth of China-U.S. relations serves the interest of both countries and requires joint efforts from both sides.

In that spirit, I hope the U.S. side will treat fairly Chinese companies and their regular trade and investment activities, and give support to the collaboration between enterprises, research institutes, and schools and colleges of the two countries as it will help enhance mutual trust and cooperation between us.

China is prepared to work with the U.S. in that direction. And I will stay in close touch with you personally.

I believe that under our guidance, China-U.S. relations will deliver more results and bring greater benefits to our peoples in the year ahead.

The Chinese Lunar New Year is just a few days away. I and my wife Peng Liyuan extend our season’s greetings to you, to Melania, and your family. May you all enjoy happiness and success in the New Year.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you very much. (Applause.) That’s beautiful. Thank you.

VICE PREMIER LIU: (As interpreted.) Honorable President Donald Trump, Honorable Vice President Mike Pence, Ambassador Lighthizer, Secretary Mnuchin, colleagues, friends, ladies and gentlemen: Good afternoon. Today, China and the United States will be officially signing the phase one trade agreement.

First of all, allow me to pay tribute to our two presidents.

I also want to thank the U.S. principals, our two economic teams, and all those who have made their contribution to this phase one trade agreement.

As two great countries with important responsibilities in world affairs, China and the United States, with the larger picture in mind, have taken a serious approach to our differences and worked to manage them appropriately, reaching phase one trade agreement. It is good for China, for the United States, and for the world.

This is a mutually beneficial and win-win agreement. It will bring about stable economic growth, promote world peace and prosperity, and is in the interest of the producers, consumers, investors in both countries.

At the same time, this agreement is not directed at, nor will it affect, the lawful rise in interest of any third country. It is in line with WTO rules.

A cooperative economic and trade relationship is the propeller of the overall China-U.S. relations. Over the past two years, the two sides encountered some difficulties in the economic and trade field. At times, there were setbacks in our trade talks because, on some issues, we don’t see eye to eye. However, our two economic teams do not give up with relentless efforts from both sides. On the basis of equality and mutual respect, we have reached this phase one trade agreement.

As we Chinese often say, one should not be daunted by difficult problems because there are always more solutions than problems. (Applause.)

This is an extensive agreement. After it is signed, China will work with the U.S. at — in the principle of equality and mutual respect, strictly honor the agreement, accommodate each other’s core concerns, and ensure the good implementation of the phase one trade agreement. It is the pressing need and will also play an important role in the growth of bilateral economic and trade relations in the future.

As to where we will go from here, there is a Chinese proverb that goes, “The beginning is the most difficult part.” There is a similar saying in English: “A good beginning is half the success.” They mean the same thing. It means that we need to continue to be problem-oriented and focus on implementing the phase one trade agreement so as to bring about a good start in the sound economic and trade relations going forward.

As the living standards of the Chinese people rises, we will import fine-quality agricultural products from countries across the world.

As the two sides have agreed based on the market demand in China, in line with market terms, Chinese businesses will purchase 40 billion U.S. dollars of agricultural products from the United States annually. If the demand is strong, the companies may buy more.

To make it happen, the two governments need to foster a sound marketing environment for businesses to expand trade activities.

Ladies and gentlemen, friends: The Chinese economy is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development. A new philosophy is governing our development across the board. Reform and opening-up is picking up speed. This year we’ll build a moderately prosperous society in all respects.

China’s per capita GDP has exceeded 10,000 U.S. dollars. A 400 million-strong middle-income group is emerging, and a massive domestic market is taking shape. China welcomes investors from around the world to China, including those from the United States. And we’ll expand imports of fine-quality products and services from other countries.

China will continue to enhance the legal environment, step up the protection of property rights and intellectual property, apply a management system of pre-establishment national treatment, plus the negative list, and create a level playing field. China will open itself even wider. (Applause.)

Ladies and gentlemen, friends: The world is now at a critical historical crossroads. We are faced with the major strategic choice of how to promote major country cooperation and international cooperation.

China has developed a political system and a model of economic development that suits its national reality. This doesn’t mean China and the United States cannot work together. On the contrary, our two countries share enormous common commercial interests, and we are faced with multiple common challenges like terrorism, counter-narcotics, widening income gap, an aging population, major diseases, resources, and protecting the environment. There is a real need for closer cooperation.

President Xi Jinping points out that there are a thousand reasons to make China-U.S. relations succeed and not a single one to let it fail. We must seek common ground while putting aside differences and find a path toward win-win cooperation. This has important implications for China, the United States, and the world at large.

It has been, and will continue need to be, proved that we both stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. Cooperation is the only right choice. We need to act in the overall interest of world peace and development and shared future of humanity, pursue equal consultation with mutual respect, and take forward China-U.S. relations based on coordination, cooperation, and stability, and fulfill the great historic mission that we shoulder together.

While I see many visionary people here in the audience who have made an important contribution to the sound development of China-U.S. relations, please accept my most sincere appreciation. (Applause.)

The Lunar Chinese New Year is coming soon. I extend season’s greetings to you. I wish you good health and all the success. Again, thank you very much, President Trump, and thank you all. (Applause.)

Now I’d like to invite Ambassador Cui Tiankai to say a few words. Thank you. (Applause.)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: And just prior to signing, we’ll ask Ambassador Cui to come up and say a few words. Thank you. (Applause.) Yes, please.

AMBASSADOR CUI: (As interpreted.) Honorable President Trump, Vice President Pence, Secretary Mnuchin, Ambassador Lighthizer, Your Excellency, Vice Premier Liu He, Minister Zhong Shan, and Governor Yi Gang, ladies and gentlemen: Just now, Vice Premier has given us the comprehensive elaboration on China’s principled position on the China-U.S. phase one trade agreement.

Given the highly complex international environment, reaching a China-U.S. phase one trade agreement based on equality and mutual respect is good for China and the U.S., and good for the peace and prosperity of the whole world.

We hope both sides will abide by and implement the agreement with earnest to keep the China-U.S. trade relations in the right direction of mutual benefit and win-win, and deliver greater benefits to the people of our two countries.

China’s development is a result of the wisdom and hard work of 1.4 billion Chinese people. And the rights of the Chinese people to pursue a better life is what should be there.

There is great potential for greater China-U.S. cooperation, and the defining feature of this economic cooperation between our two countries is mutual benefit. People of both countries benefit from such cooperation. These facts haven’t and will not change.

The China-U.S. relationship is now at a crucial juncture. As we have reached the phase one trade agreement, it is now important that we leverage the opportunity earnestly, implement the strategic consensus reached between our two Presidents, and keep our bilateral relations in the right direction.

We need to strengthen strategic communication and dialogue on various levels to build trust, reduce misgivings and misunderstandings and misjudgment, and properly manage differences so as to build a China-U.S. relationship based on coordination, cooperation, and stability.

To conclude, I want to take this opportunity to thank you again, friends from all the communities in the United States for your support to the healthy growth of China-U.S. relations. Let’s work together in the New Year. Thank you. (Applause.)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, just in closing — and we’re going to sign right now, but it just doesn’t get any bigger than this — not only in terms of a deal, but really in terms of what it represents.

Keeping these two giant and powerful nations together in harmony is so important for the world — not only for us, for the whole world. And the world is watching today.

So it’s a great honor to be involved. It’s a great honor, Mr. Vice Premier, to be with you. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. (Applause.)

(The agreement is signed.)

END

HOUSING

FED. January 16, 2020. Speech. The Outlook for Housing. Governor Michelle W. Bowman. At the 2020 Economic Forecast Breakfast, Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri

Few sectors are as central to the success of our economy and the lives of American families as housing. If we include the amount families spend on shelter each month as well as the construction of new houses and apartments, housing generates about 15 cents out of every dollar of economic activity. As homebuilders, you set the foundation that supports the work of architects, bankers, electricians, carpenters, plumbers, furniture makers, and many others. In our time together today, I'd like to discuss the outlook for housing at the national level and also look at the labor force and credit challenges facing your industry.1

Let me start with just a few words about the overall economic picture. I'm pleased to say that the U.S. economy is currently in a good place, and the baseline outlook of participants on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is for continued moderate growth in gross domestic product (GDP) over the next few years. Unemployment is the lowest it has been in 50 years, and FOMC participants expect it to remain low. Inflation has been muted and is expected to rise gradually to the FOMC's 2 percent objective.

One of the most remarkable features of the current economic expansion has been the vitality and resilience of the U.S. job market. More than 22 million jobs have been created since the low point for employment at the end of the last downturn, and the pace of job gains has been amazingly consistent. Until this expansion, even in good times, scarcely a year went by without at least one month when payrolls shrank. Yet during the past 10 years, we haven't had a single month with a decline in the overall number of jobs. I should note that I would not necessarily consider a single month of job losses as saying much about the direction of the economy. But the unbroken string of job gains that we have experienced during this recovery highlights how our economy has kept humming along during this past decade, weathering the occasional lull. Let me also add here that, as good as the national numbers for the job market look, things seem even better here in the Kansas City area, where job growth has been steady and the unemployment rate has consistently run around 1 percentage point below the national average—at last count, it was 2.8 percent.

Let me now turn to the main topic of my talk today. My colleagues and I at the Federal Reserve pay close attention to developments in the housing sector, in part because it has historically been such an important driver of economic growth. In the national economic data, the part of GDP that includes homebuilding activity is referred to as residential fixed investment. This measure summarizes a variety of housing-related activities, including spending on the construction of new single-family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, real estate brokers' fees, and a few other smaller components.

If we look at the growth of residential fixed investment in periods since World War II that are defined as economic expansions, we see that this broad category has increased at an average rate of around 7 percent per year, faster than the roughly 4 percent pace of GDP growth in those same periods. And, as many of you know from experience, the opposite is true as well—that housing activity tends to experience relatively large declines in economic downturns. In particular, residential fixed investment declined an average of about 15 percent annually during periods defined as recessions, compared with an average annual rate of decline in GDP of just 2 percent in those same periods.

These numbers illustrate that residential fixed investment is particularly sensitive to where we are in the business cycle. The strong economy we are experiencing now has an obvious upside for the housing sector: A robust job market translates into higher incomes, greater confidence, and more people looking to buy a new home or considering whether to make a change from their current home.

Yet even though the financial crisis and the bursting of the real estate bubble occurred more than a decade ago, all of us here are no doubt aware of the lasting imprint that those developments left on the housing market. On an annual basis, both new and existing home sales did not increase again until 2012, and they remained at modest levels for several years thereafter. Given the large and persistent inventory overhang of unsold homes in the aftermath of the crisis, the construction of new homes was also sluggish for many years into the recovery.

Part of the weak recovery in the housing market during the first few years of this expansion can be traced to extremely tight mortgage credit conditions. Despite the fact that the Fed slashed interest rates and kept them low for many years, many households were underwater on their existing mortgages, with more owed on their housing than their homes were worth, while others were unable to obtain a loan to finance a new purchase. As a result, housing demand remained very weak for an extended period.

Another factor that played a role in the slow housing recovery was the low rate of household formation, which dropped significantly during the recession and remained low for most of the following decade. Much of this drop was due to a larger share of young people continuing to live with their parents, though this is not unusual when the economy is weak and jobs are hard to find.2

In the past few years, though, we have seen some encouraging signs that the broader strength in the economy has eased these housing market headwinds. Along with ongoing improvements in households' balance sheet conditions, mortgage credit conditions appear to be less of a constraint for creditworthy borrowers. I should add that housing activity is also being supported by interest rates that remain quite low by historical standards, with the fixed rate charged on a 30-year mortgage now below 4 percent, substantially lower than the rates observed just before the last recession. As you well know, activity in the housing sector is highly sensitive to interest rates and other factors that have a powerful effect on the overall cost of owning a home.

In addition, amid the strong job market of the past few years, we have seen a rise in the rate at which young adults are moving out of their family homes and forming households of their own. Even so, millions of young adults are still living with their parents who likely wouldn't have been before the crisis. While their reasons for doing so are probably varied, there is potential for many more individuals to shift back to forming new households.

Although the effects may evolve slowly, the higher rate of household formation will eventually result in higher demand for housing and encourage further increases in homebuilding. Home sales have been rising in recent years, the percentage of homes that are vacant has been falling, and inventories of both new and existing homes for sale have drifted back down to relatively low levels. In fact, at this point, the residential real estate market is quite tight in some areas of the country and by enough that I have heard that the volume of home sales is being restricted by the low inventory of homes on the market.

The most recent housing data have been encouraging: Both new and existing home sales moved up strongly in the second half of 2019, and traffic of prospective buyers in new homes for sale and expected sales within the next six months have approached all-time highs. Permits for new residential construction, which had been sluggish early last year, recently moved up to highs for this expansion. In all, the national indicators suggest a positive growth outlook for the housing sector over the next several quarters.

Before I conclude, I'd like to address two challenges currently facing the housing sector. The first relates to the difficulties that some employers face, including homebuilders, in finding and retaining qualified and skilled workers. To provide some context, the national data show that the unemployment rate in the private construction industry is now well below the rate we observed in the early 2000s, a time when the housing market was booming. In addition, the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment in the construction industry—a measure of labor market strength—shot up to historic highs at the end of 2018, and it has remained near those levels. These indicators confirm what I have been hearing from construction industry employers during my visits to different parts of the country—it's extremely difficult to find and hire workers, skilled or otherwise.

In response to these hiring-related challenges, we have seen a renewed and broad focus on workforce development initiatives by the public and private sector, a development we have followed closely at the Federal Reserve. I recently heard a very encouraging presentation from representatives of vocational training organizations about progress they are making in connecting young adults, students, and high school grads with skilled trades. I am hopeful that these efforts, along with a continued strong job market, will encourage more people to join—or, in some cases, rejoin—the construction trades.

The second challenge I want to highlight relates to the declining presence of community banks in the consumer real estate mortgage market. As regulatory burdens have risen, many community banks have significantly scaled back their lending or exited the mortgage market altogether. These developments concern me for several reasons. Home mortgage lending has traditionally been a significant business for smaller banks, and the decline in this business threatens a part of the banking industry that plays a crucial role in communities. Bankers who are present and active in their communities know and understand their customers and the local market better than lenders outside the area. Because of their local knowledge and customer relationships, they are often more willing to help troubled borrowers work their way through difficult times.

These two challenges notwithstanding, I remain optimistic about the outlook for housing. I expect construction to continue advancing to meet the underlying expansion in housing demand from population growth and the strong economy. In addition, low interest rates will continue to be a key factor supporting growth in housing activity. As reported in the latest Summary of Economic Projections, released in December, most FOMC participants see the current target range for the federal funds rate as likely to remain appropriate this year as long as incoming information remains broadly consistent with the economic outlook I described earlier.

In closing, let me say that I would also appreciate hearing what is on your minds. As a policymaker, I particularly value opportunities to travel outside of Washington to hear your perspectives on the national and local economies. These conversations improve our work at the Fed by helping us make better-informed decisions.

Notes

1. These remarks represent my own views, which do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.
2. See, for example, Aditya Aladangady, Laura Feiveson, and Andrew Paciorek (2019), "Living at Home Ain't Such a Drag (on Spending): Young Adults' Spending in and out of Their Parents' Home," FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 5).

GUATEMALA

DoC. January 15, 2020 . Secretary of Commerce Leads U.S. Delegation to Guatemala. United States Welcomes Giammattei Administration with Commitment to Work Together to Catalyze Up to One Billion Dollars to Invest in Economic Development

WASHINGTON – From January 13th to the 14th, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross led a Presidential delegation to attend Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei’s inauguration and congratulate the Guatemalan people on a successful democratic transition of power. The delegation underscored the United States’ commitment to development and prosperity across the country and intends to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to catalyze up to $1 billion in private sector investment in Guatemala over the next three years. This investment is part of America Crece, a U.S.-government program designed to spur economic growth throughout Latin America. Other delegation members included U.S. Ambassador to Guatemala Luis Arreaga, Acting Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Chad Wolf, and U.S. International Development Finance Corporation CEO Adam Boehler.

“Guatemala is one of the United States’ closest partners in Latin America, and under President Giammattei’s leadership, we expect our partnership to deepen,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “Moreover, our commitment to catalyze up to $1 billion in economic development is evidence of our continued faith in this key relationship.”

The delegation met with President Giammattei to express the United States’ commitment to partner with Guatemala to spur economic growth and support good governance. Additionally, the delegation noted its appreciation for Guatemala’s efforts to stem illegal immigration and underscored that these efforts are key to the relationship.

Later this week, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) intends to sign a MOU to work with the Government of Guatemala to mobilize up to $1 billion in private sector-led economic development projects. Secretary Ross and DFC CEO Adam Boehler met with leaders from the private sector and non-governmental institutions to discuss how they could partner on important areas such as critical infrastructure, agriculture, border protection, technology and innovation, women’s economic empowerment, and small and medium-sized enterprises. Boehler stressed DFC will coordinate with the Guatemalan government to target support in areas of highest need, starting with Quetzaltenango and the surrounding highlands. Boehler added that, “Private sector growth can help stem the migration flow by improving people’s livelihoods. We are here to invest and create jobs, and we look forward to working with the Giammattei administration to do so.”

While in the country, Acting Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf carried out a series of meetings with senior law enforcement and security officials. Wolf commented, “Our meetings today were productive and positive. I look forward to working with President Giammattei and his team to continue our already strong partnership to reduce illegal immigration to the United States.”

LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN

U.S. Department of State. 01/16/2020. Secretary Pompeo’s Visit to Germany, Colombia, Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Florida. Morgan Ortagus, Department Spokesperson

Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo will travel to Germany, Colombia, Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Florida January 18-23.

Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo will travel to Berlin on January 19 to attend the jointly hosted German-UN international conference on Libya, as part of the three-point plan UN Special Representative Salamé outlined to the UN Security Council.

Secretary Pompeo will then arrive in Bogota, Colombia on January 20, where he will speak at the Third Western Hemisphere Counterterrorism Ministerial and meet with President Duque and other regional leaders. The Secretary will also discuss our strong counternarcotics cooperation with Colombia.

On January 21, the Secretary will arrive in San Jose, Costa Rica, where he will meet with President Carlos Alvarado and visit the Joint Operations Center, which facilitates regional law enforcement cooperation. Costa Rica, an important partner of the United States, supports democracy and the rule of law throughout the hemisphere, including in Nicaragua and Venezuela.

Later that day, Secretary Pompeo will arrive in Kingston, Jamaica. While there, he will meet with Prime Minister Holness, conduct a multilateral roundtable discussion with Caribbean leaders, and deliver remarks on U.S. Caribbean relations.

On January 23, Secretary Pompeo will travel to Miami to meet with Governor DeSantis. The Secretary will then travel to Bushnell, Florida to deliver a speech on President Trump’s foreign policy before returning to Washington, D.C.

________________

ORGANISMS

SECURITY

IMF. 01/16/2020. The High Cost of Crime in Central America
By Dmitry Plotnikov

In Central America, the human costs of crime remain one of the highest in the world. El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras—referred to as the Northern Triangle— account for about four-and-a-half percent of homicides worldwide despite only having about one-half-percent of the world's population.

The economic costs are also high. In Honduras and El Salvador, for example, widespread criminal activity is costing these countries 16 percent of GDP, which includes 13 percent of GDP directly (such as business closures) and three percent of GDP indirectly (such as lack of job opportunities). And Guatemala might be losing seven percent of GDP from crime—six percent directly and one percent of GDP indirectly.

Because these economic losses are severe for Central America, which is facing widespread poverty and inequality, bringing down crime rates can pay off. Our latest research from a staff study  finds that a one percent increase in output per capita implies about a one-half percent decline in crime, while a decrease of about five percent in crime leads to about one percent increase in output per capita.

High crime

Latinobarometro surveys show that crime and corruption surpass employment and other economic challenges (such as income inequality) as the most pressing issue in the Northern Triangle.

Drug trafficking, availability of firearms, and youth violence are often cited as reasons for these high crime levels. However, as Nobel Laureate Gary Becker suggested in 1968, criminals are rational individuals who compare the expected cost and benefit of committing crimes with those of legal activities.

Given widespread poverty and lack of economic opportunities, as well as perceived corruption, it is not surprising that criminal activity becomes a viable option for some, potentially explaining why crime is high in Northern Triangle countries.

How large are the estimated costs of crime (indirect and direct)?

Crime has direct and indirect costs. The direct costs include output (goods) and resources (time and wages of both victims and criminals) lost due to criminal activity, and resources spent on security costs—both public and private—that otherwise could have been used for productive purposes.

Indirectly, crime lowers economic activity as individuals internalize the harmful effects of crime. Examples of the indirect costs include lower investment and employment opportunities, higher outward migration, the erosion of institutions, and corruption. All these outcomes, in turn, exacerbate crime, generating a vicious cycle.

While direct crime costs can be measured (for example by number of business closures), quantifying indirect costs can be challenging, because it requires a hypothetical state of the economy in which crime is absent, but all other economic mechanisms are present.

Our latest research fills this gap of how to measure indirect costs. By investigating the behavior patterns and rationale of unemployed individuals who weigh the costs and benefits of entering the workforce versus becoming a criminal within a conceptual framework, we find that the indirect crime costs are large. The good news is that once crime levels decrease, indirect costs decline as well, leading to a positive “multiplier” effect from fighting crime.

In Honduras, we find that in 2016, the indirect costs of crime amount to 3 percent of GDP and the direct costs are about 13 percent of GDP. In El Salvador in 2015, the indirect costs are 7 percent and direct costs are 20 percent, and in Guatemala from 2015-2017 the indirect costs of crime amounted to 1 percent of GDP, with the direct costs at 6 percent of GDP. This means, that, for example for Honduras, on top of observed costs of violence, estimated at 13 percent of observed GDP, the level of GDP could have been additionally 3 percent higher if crime did not alter economic incentives.

Policy recommendations

If individuals can choose between productive and criminal activities, crime becomes an equilibrium feature of the economy rather than an exogenous characteristic of individuals: if criminal opportunities still exist, somebody would accept them dampening the benefits of lower crime on economic activity.

For a country like Honduras in 2016 with a homicide rate of about 60 per 100,000 individuals, a decrease of about 5¼ percent in crime via a better judicial system leads to only a one percent increase in output per capita. However, a one percent increase in output per capita driven by higher labor productivity implies a ½ percent decline in crime. Importantly, these positive effects are larger if the corresponding change is larger, due to presence of significant but unobserved indirect costs.

Taken together, a virtuous circle exists between better economic conditions and lower crime—with a stronger spillover effect from improvements in both the macroeconomy and security. Therefore, improving policing effectiveness and the criminal justice system is important—especially for high crime levels. Likewise, a combination of stable and inclusive growth, higher returns to legal activities (including better labor productivity and higher quality prevention interventions), together with lower barriers to entry and friendlier business regulations to generate job opportunities are also paramount to consistently lower crime over time.

________________

ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRAZIL ECONOMICS

PIB

BACEN. 16 Janeiro 2020. BC divulga o Índice de Atividade Econômica do Banco Central IBC-Br de novembro de 2019

DOCUMENTO: https://www.bcb.gov.br/detalhenoticia/16951/nota

BACEN. PORTAL G1. 16/01/2020. 'Prévia' do PIB do BC registra alta de 0,18% em novembro. Foi o quarto mês seguido de alta do indicador. No ano, alta é de 0,95% e, em doze meses até novembro, expansão de 0,9%.

O nível de atividade da economia brasileira registrou crescimento em novembro. É o que indicam os resultados de outubro do Índice de Atividade Econômica do BC (IBC-Br) divulgados nesta quinta-feira (16) pelo Banco Central (BC).

O indicador é considerado uma "prévia" do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), que é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país e serve para medir a evolução da economia.

O IBC-Br apresentou uma expansão de 0,18% em novembro, na comparação com o mês anterior. O resultado foi calculado após ajuste sazonal (uma espécie de "compensação" para comparar períodos diferentes).

Na comparação com novembro do ano passado, o índice apresentou crescimento de 1,10%.

Os números do BC mostram que novembro foi o quarto mês seguido de crescimento da atividade econômica, com uma leve aceleração na comparação com outubro, quando foi registrado um aumento 0,09%, segundo dados revisados – no mês passado, o BC havia apontado uma alta de 0,17% naquele mês.

De acordo com o Banco Central, na parcial do ano, foi registrada uma alta de 0,95% e, em 12 meses até novembro, um crescimento de 0,90% do IBC-Br. Esses valores foram calculados sem ajuste sazonal, pois consideram períodos iguais.

PIB e IBC-Br

O IBC-Br foi criado para tentar antecipar o resultado do PIB, que é divulgado pelo IBGE. Os resultados do IBC-Br, porém, nem sempre mostraram proximidade com os dados oficiais do PIB.

O cálculo dos dois têm diferenças. O índice do BC incorpora estimativas para a agropecuária, a indústria e o setor de serviços, além dos impostos. Os dados oficiais de PIB são divulgados apenas trimestralmente – e a próxima divulgação, referente ao quarto trimestre de 2019, está prevista para o início de março.

Definição dos juros básicos da economia

O IBC-Br ajuda o Banco Central na definição dos juros básicos da economia. Com o menor crescimento da economia, por exemplo, teoricamente haveria menos pressão inflacionária.

Atualmente, a taxa Selic está em 4,5% ao ano, na mínima histórica, e a avaliação do mercado é de que o ciclo de corte dos juros está próximo do fim.

Pelo sistema que vigora no Brasil, o BC precisa ajustar os juros para atingir as metas preestabelecidas de inflação. Quanto maiores as taxas, menos pessoas e empresas ficam dispostas a consumir, o que tende a fazer com que os preços baixem ou fiquem estáveis.

Para 2019, a meta central de inflação é de 4,25%, com um intervalo de tolerância de 1,5 ponto percentual para mais ou para menos. Desse modo, o IPCA, considerado a inflação oficial do país e medida pelo IBGE, pode ficar entre 2,75% e 5,75%, sem que a meta seja formalmente descumprida.

ECONOMIA

BACEN. 15 Janeiro 2020. Apresentação do Presidente Roberto Campos Neto na 24th Santander Latin American Conference, em Cancun, México.

DOCUMENTO: https://www.bcb.gov.br/detalhenoticia/16950/nota

INFLAÇÃO

FGV. IBRE. 16/01/20. Índices Gerais de Preços. IGP-10. IGP-10 varia 1,07% em janeiro

O Índice Geral de Preços – 10 (IGP-10) variou 1,07% em janeiro. No mês anterior, a taxa havia sido de 1,69%. Com este resultado, o índice acumula alta de 7,81% em 12 meses. Em janeiro de 2019, o índice havia registrado queda de 0,26% no mês e alta de 6,80% em 12 meses.

O Índice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo (IPA) variou 1,38% em janeiro. No mês anterior, o índice havia registrado alta de 2,26%. Na análise por estágios de processamento, os preços dos Bens Finais subiram 1,68% em janeiro, após registrar alta de 2,70% em dezembro. A principal contribuição para este resultado partiu do subgrupo alimentos processados, cuja taxa passou de 5,89% para 2,93%. O índice relativo a Bens Finais (ex), que exclui os subgrupos alimentos in natura e combustíveis para o consumo, variou 1,23% em janeiro. No mês anterior, a taxa foi de 2,16%.

A taxa do grupo Bens Intermediários avançou de 0,20% em dezembro para 1,18% em janeiro. A principal contribuição para a alta da taxa do grupo partiu do subgrupo combustíveis e lubrificantes para a produção, cuja taxa passou de -0,69% para 4,78%. O índice de Bens Intermediários (ex), obtido após a exclusão do subgrupo combustíveis e lubrificantes para a produção, subiu 0,54% em janeiro, ante 0,36% no mês anterior.

O índice do grupo Matérias-Primas Brutas passou de 4,12% em dezembro para 1,26% em janeiro. As principais contribuições para este recuo partiram dos seguintes itens: bovinos (21,31% para -1,68%), soja (em grão) (3,29% para -0,84%) e mandioca (aipim) (9,60% para -2,22%). Em sentido ascendente, os movimentos mais relevantes ocorreram nos itens minério de ferro (-0,84% para 0,71%), cana-de-açúcar (-0,93% para 1,55%) e milho (em grão) (8,23% para 9,33%).

O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) variou 0,51% em janeiro. Em dezembro, o índice havia registrado alta de 0,75%. Quatro das oito classes de despesa componentes do índice registraram recuo em suas taxas de variação, com destaque para o grupo Despesas Diversas, cuja taxa passou de 4,62% para 0,20%. Nesta classe de despesa, vale citar o comportamento do item jogo lotérico, que não registrou variação em janeiro, após subir 39,04% em dezembro.

Também apresentaram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação os grupos Habitação (0,03% para -0,61%), Educação, Leitura e Recreação (1,09% para -0,29%) e Comunicação (0,28% para 0,22%). As contribuições para estes movimentos partiram dos seguintes itens: tarifa de eletricidade residencial (-0,26% para -3,41%), passagem aérea (21,33% para -12,00%) e mensalidade para internet (0,79% para 0,22%).

Em contrapartida, os grupos Transportes (0,56% para 1,09%), Vestuário (0,05% para 0,45%), Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,25% para 0,34%) e Alimentação (1,47% para 1,96%) apresentaram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação. Nestas classes de despesa, as maiores contribuições partiram dos itens gasolina (1,70% para 3,00%), acessórios do vestuário (-0,27% para 1,06%), artigos de higiene e cuidado pessoal (0,09% para 0,52%) e hortaliças e legumes (-2,69% para 3,81%).

O Índice Nacional de Custo da Construção (INCC) subiu 0,24% em janeiro, ante 0,06% em dezembro. Os três grupos componentes do INCC registraram as seguintes variações na passagem de dezembro para janeiro: Materiais e Equipamentos (-0,02% para 0,27%), Serviços (0,09% para 0,26%) e Mão de Obra (0,11% para 0,23%).

DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/navegacao-superior/noticias/igp-10-varia-1-07-em-janeiro.htm

FGV. IBRE. 16/01/20. Índices Gerais de Preços. IPC-S. Inflação pelo IPC-S recua influenciado pelo comportamento do item carnes bovinas

O IPC-S de 15 de janeiro de 2020 variou 0,48%, ficando 0,09 ponto percentual (p.p) abaixo da taxa registrada na última divulgação.

Nesta apuração, seis das oito classes de despesa componentes do índice registraram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação. A maior contribuição partiu do grupo Alimentação (2,30% para 1,61%). Nesta classe de despesa, cabe mencionar o comportamento do item carnes bovinas, cuja taxa passou de 11,07% para 5,47%.

Também registraram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação os grupos: Transportes (1,16% para 0,94%), Vestuário (0,62% para 0,34%), Despesas Diversas (0,39% para 0,13%), Comunicação (0,24% para 0,13%) e Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,38% para 0,37%). Nestas classes de despesa, vale destacar o comportamento dos itens: gasolina (3,12% para 2,56%), roupas (0,67% para 0,25%), jogo lotérico (2,85% para 0,00%), combo de telefonia, internet e tv por assinatura (0,50% para 0,15%) e artigos de higiene e cuidado pessoal (0,73% para 0,54%).

Em contrapartida, os grupos Habitação (-0,76% para -0,33%) e Educação, Leitura e Recreação (-0,30% para -0,11%) apresentaram quedas menos intensas em suas taxas de variação. Nestas classes de despesa, vale citar os itens: tarifa de eletricidade residencial (-4,08% para -2,26%) e cursos formais (1,20% para 2,02%).

DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/navegacao-superior/noticias/inflacao-pelo-ipc-s-recua-influenciado-pelo-comportamento-do-item-carnes-bovinas.htm

CONSUMO

CNDL. SPC-BRASIL. PORTAL G1. 16/01/2020. Inadimplência cai pelo 2º mês seguido, mas ainda atinge 61 milhões de brasileiros. Pesquisa da CNDL e do SPC Brasil mostra que a maior queda ocorreu no Nordeste e entre população de 18 a 29 anos.

A inadimplência caiu pelo segundo mês seguido em dezembro e encerrou o ano de 2019 com um recuo de 0,2%, na comparação com o ano anterior, segundo divulgou nesta quinta-feira (16) a Confederação Nacional de Dirigentes Lojistas (CNDL) e o Serviço de Proteção ao Crédito (SPC Brasil)

Em novembro, a inadimplência do consumidor já havia registrado queda de 0,3%, a primeira em mais de dois anos. Em dezembro do ano passado, houve alta de 4,4% na comparação anual.

Apesar do recuo, a estimativa é que 61 milhões de brasileiros tenham começado o ano de 2020 com alguma conta em atraso e com o CPF restrito para contratar crédito ou fazer compras parceladas. No final de 2018, a pesquisa chegou a estimar o número de inadimplentes em mais de 63 milhões.

Indicador de inadimplência CNDL/SPC

Variação (%) anual - mês contra igual mês do ano anterior

Dez/19
-0,2

Fonte: CNDL / SPC

Segundo o SPC Brasil, a inadimplência mais bem-comportada reflete um cenário de recuperação de crédito e de melhora gradual da conjuntura econômica, e também algumas ações pontuais, como campanhas de renegociação de dívidas e a liberação dos saques do FGTS.

"A expectativa é de que a inadimplência siga em queda pelos próximos meses, mas a passos lentos. A aceleração desse quadro passa pela continuidade da melhora econômica e, em especial, daquilo que toca diretamente o bolso do consumidor: emprego e renda. Mesmo com a inadimplência caindo aos poucos, as famílias ainda enfrentam dificuldades para honrar seus compromissos em dia, tanto é que há um estoque elevado de pessoas com contas sem pagar”, afirmou o presidente do SPC Brasil, Roque Pellizzaro Junior.

Nordeste lidera queda da inadimplência

Segundo o levantamento, o Nordeste apresentou a queda mais expressiva na quantidade de inadimplentes, com recuo de 3,2% na comparação com dezembro de 2018. No Sudeste, o recuo foi de 0,7%, ao passo que no Norte e no Centro-Oeste, houve alta de 4,8% e de 3,8%, respectivamente.

O Norte segue como a região com a maior inadimplência em termos proporcionais. A estimativa é que 47,2% dos adultos, ou 5,9 milhões de consumidores estejam com o CPF negativado. Em seguida aparece o Centro-Oeste (42,4% ou 5,1 milhões de inadimplentes), Nordeste (40,2% ou 16,6 milhões de negativados), Sudeste (37,4% ou 25,2 milhões de pessoas com contas em atraso) e Sul (35,5% ou 8,2 milhões de inadimplentes.

Inadimplência por idade

O indicador mostra também que a maior queda da inadimplência foi entre a população mais jovem. Na faixa de 18 a 24 anos, houve recuo de 21%. Também houve uma diminuição significativa do número de devedores entre os que têm de 25 a 29 anos (-11,2%) e entre 30 e 39 anos (-3,2%).

Já entre os idosos de 65 a 84 anos, a inadimplência cresceu 3,7%. Considerando as pessoas de 50 a 64 anos, houve uma alta de 1,8% na inadimplência. Na faixa entre 40 e 49 anos, o aumento foi menor, de 0,8%.

53% dos inadimplentes tem dívidas em atraso de menos de R$ 1 mil

Segundo a pesquisa, cada consumidor inadimplente deve, em média, R$ 3.257,91.

Do total de inadimplentes, mais da metade (52,8%) têm dívidas em atraso de até R$ 1.000.

Em dezembro, o recuo mais expressivo da inadimplência se deu nas dívidas com o setor de comunicação, que englobam contas de telefonia, internet e TV por assinatura, com uma redução de 16,4%.

Na sequência, as maiores quedas na inadimplência ocorreram nas dívidas bancárias (-1,9%), que levam em conta cartão de crédito, cheque especial, empréstimos e financiamentos.

Já o as dívidas contraídas no comércio via crediário subiram 0,9%, enquanto as pendências básicas com água e luz cresceram 2,1%.

AGRICULTURA

CONAB. 16 de Janeiro de 2020. Bienalidade positiva impulsiona safra de café no país e aumenta produção

O 1º Levantamento da Safra 2020 de Café mostra que país poderá colher entre 43,2 e 45,98 milhões de sacas beneficiadas de arábica e entre 13,95 a 16,04 milhões de sacas de conilon. Divulgado nesta quinta-feira (16) pela Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), o boletim aponta que o fenômeno atuou sobretudo no café do tipo arábica, em relação a 2019.

A produção de café arábica, influenciada pela bienalidade, deverá ter um aumento entre 26% e 34,1%, respectivamente, em comparação ao volume produzido na safra passada. Mas, em relação a 2018, haverá um decréscimo entre 3,2 e 9%. A floração da atual safra ocorreu sob um clima desfavorável, com altas temperaturas e baixos índices pluviométricos. Entretanto, o clima favoreceu no período da formação do chumbinho e os enchimentos dos frutos do arábica.

A produção de conilon no país tem sido favorecida pelo clima e subiu de 14,2 milhões de sacas em 2018, para 15 milhões em 2019. Com a expectativa para 2020, o país poderá colher uma safra total, somando conilon ao arábica, entre 57,2 milhões e 62,02 milhões de sacas beneficiadas de café este ano. Já a área total, será de 1,89 milhão de hectares, com crescimento de 4%.

Produção regional – Entre os estados cafeicultores, Minas Gerais deve produzir entre 30,71 e 32,08 milhões de sacas. No sul de Minas a quantidade oscila entre 17,03 e 17,79 milhões de sacas. No Cerrado Mineiro a produção ficará entre 5,82 e 6,07 milhões de sacas, enquanto na Zona da Mata Mineira oscila entre 7,21 a 7,53 milhões de sacas. No Norte de Minas deve ficar entre 655,7 mil e 684,9 mil sacas beneficiadas.

Na previsão para os outros estados a estimativa mostra o seguinte cenário: Espírito Santo, 13,02 a 15,44 milhões de sacas; São Paulo, 5,71 a 6,1 milhões; Bahia, 3,6 a 4,1 milhões; Rondônia, 2,34 a 2,39 milhões; Paraná, 880 a 970 mil sacas; Rio de Janeiro, 316 a 350 mil sacas; Goiás, 265,2 a 276 mil sacas e Mato Grosso, 159 a 168,8 mil sacas.

Mercado – No mercado internacional, os preços futuros dos contratos dos cafés arábica e conilon recuaram neste início de ano após as fortes altas verificadas nos meses de novembro e dezembro/19. A normalização do clima com o retorno das chuvas nas regiões cafeeiras do Brasil e a entrada de produto de origem colombiana e de países da América Central tem contribuído para o arrefecimento das cotações.

Boletim de Café de Janeiro-2020: https://www.conab.gov.br/info-agro/safras/cafe/boletim-da-safra-de-cafe

POLÍTICA FISCAL

MEconomia. SPE. 16/01/2020. ECONOMIA. Prisma fiscal. SPE divulga Prisma Fiscal de janeiro de 2020. Estatísticas para as previsões das variáveis fiscais e a distribuição de frequência

A Secretaria de Política Econômica do Ministério da Economia (SPE/ME) divulgou nesta quinta-feira (16/1) o Relatório Mensal e a Distribuição de Frequência do Prisma Fiscal de janeiro de 2020.

"Dois pontos que chamam atenção nos resultados do Prisma Fiscal-SPE de janeiro são a redução dos valores projetados para a Dívida Bruta do Governo Geral, em porcentagem do PIB, para 2020 e 2021, e a relativa estabilidade desse indicador no período", afirmou Marco Antônio Cavalcanti, subsecretário de Política Fiscal da SPE.

Segundo o subsecretário, essas projeções estão em linha com as estimativas oficiais e refletem confiança crescente dos agentes privados no esforço de ajuste fiscal em curso e na convergência rumo a uma trajetória de sustentabilidade das contas públicas. Cavalcanti destacou, ainda, que as expectativas de mercado indicam queda da razão dívida-PIB nos anos subsequentes.
Acesse os relatórios na íntegra:

Prisma Fiscal

O Prisma Fiscal é um sistema de coleta de expectativas de mercado elaborado pela SPE/ME para acompanhar a evolução das principais variáveis fiscais brasileiras: arrecadação das receitas federais, receita líquida do governo central, despesa total do governo central, resultado primário do governo central e dívida bruta do governo geral.

Ele oferece uma oportunidade para o aprimoramento dos estudos fiscais no país, além de facilitar o controle social a partir de uma ancoragem das expectativas quanto ao desempenho destas variáveis.

Publicações

O Relatório Mensal reúne as estatísticas das previsões enviadas pelas instituições participantes (mediana, média, desvio padrão, mínimo e máximo). Nele também pode ser consultada a média das instituições com o melhor nível de acerto para cada variável.

Já o relatório de distribuição de frequência apresenta, em formato gráfico, a frequência das projeções para cada variável nos últimos três meses.

Ranking

A SPE divulga, ainda, a relação das cinco instituições com maior precisão em suas previsões para cada variável fiscal, o Podium. A elaboração e divulgação dos rankings, além de trazer reconhecimento às instituições com melhores previsões, busca incentivar o aprimoramento dos modelos preditivos contribuindo para a robustez dos dados divulgados.

Painel do Prisma Fiscal

Pela consulta ao Painel do Prisma Fiscal, disponível no site da Economia, é possível ter acesso facilitado às expectativas de mercado para as principais variáveis fiscais brasileiras e acompanhar as projeções para arrecadação das receitas federais, despesa total do governo central, resultado primário e dívida bruta do governo geral. A elaboração do painel é mais uma medida para aumentar a transparência e o controle da sociedade sobre as ações do governo.

Relatório Mensal – janeiro 2020: http://www.economia.gov.br/noticias/2020/01/arquivos/relatorio_mensal_janeiro_2020.pdf

Distribuição de Frequência – janeiro 2020: http://www.economia.gov.br/noticias/2020/01/arquivos/frequencia_janeiro_2020.pdf

MERCADO DE IMÓVEIS

USP. FIPE. ZAP IMÓVEIS. 16/01/2020. Preço do aluguel residencial novo subiu acima da inflação em 2019, diz FipeZap. Os valores dos contratos não avançavam mais que o IPCA desde 2013.
Por Paula Salati, G1

O preço médio dos novos contratos de aluguéis residenciais anunciados em 25 cidades brasileiras subiu 4,93% em 2019, acima da inflação do período, que acumulou alta de 4,31%. Os dados são do Índice FipeZap divulgados nesta quinta-feira (16).

Os valores das locações não subiam acima do IPCA desde 2013. Ao descontar a inflação, o preço médio dos contratos registra alta real de 0,60%.

Variação do aluguel em relação ao IPCA

Em %

2019
● IPCA: 4,31

Fonte: FipeZap e IBGE

Entre as 25 capitais monitoradas, Florianópolis encerrou o ano com alta de 14,79%, o maior aumento nominal (sem considerar a inflação), seguida por Curitiba (+12,39%) e Brasília (+7,81%).

Já Salvador foi a única das capitais monitoradas a registrar queda no preço do aluguel residencial (-1,96%) em 2019.

Quanto às cidades mais representativas no Índice FipeZap, São Paulo encerrou 2019 com alta de 7,60% no valor médio da locação. Esse avanço superou a alta de 7,30%, no ano passado, do Índice Geral de Preços do Mercado (IGP-M), que reajusta os contratos de aluguel.

Em outra grande capital, no Rio de Janeiro, a variação observada foi de 1,47%.

Preço por metro quadrado

Considerando as 25 cidades monitoradas, o preço médio de locação encerrou 2019 em R$ 29,95 por metro quadrado. Entre as 11 capitais, o município de São Paulo se manteve como a capital com o preço médio de locação residencial mais elevado em R$ 40,10 por metro quadrado.

Em seguida, está Brasília (R$ 31,02/m²), que ultrapassou o registrado para o Rio de Janeiro (R$ 30,65/m²).

Já entre as capitais com menor valor de locação residencial em dezembro, destacaram-se: Goiânia (R$ 16,82/m²), Fortaleza (R$ 17,73/m²) e Curitiba (R$ 20,74/m²).

Preço médio do aluguel (por m²)

Valores para locação residencial nas cidades

Salvador (BA)
21,18

ESPECIAL / NIGÉRIA

DIÁRIO DO PODER. 16/01/2020. 50 anos do fim da Guerra de Biafra

Pedro Luiz Rodrigues Pedro Luiz Rodrigues

Há 50 anos um sangrento (um milhão de mortos) e prolongado (julho de 1967 a janeiro de 1970) conflito civil na Nigéria – a chamada Guerra de Biafra – chegou ao fim.  O país, que havia conquistado sua independência seis anos antes, viu-se surpreendido pelo movimento de secessão de sua região Sudeste, onde até hoje se concentra a produção nigeriana de petróleo.

Desde então, a Nigéria trilhou um árduo caminho para transformar-se de mera expressão geográfica em uma Nação. Sofreu, como outros países da região, o drama deixado como herança pelos colonizadores europeus, que desenharam as fronteiras de suas ex-colônias com régua e esquadro, sem a menor preocupação em preservar unidades étnicas, linguísticas ou culturais. A Nigéria, com 250 diferentes etnias, foi bem sucedida em conseguir que o  sentimento de nacionalidade predominasse entre os grupos animistas ou cristãs do Sul, e aqueles, muçulmanos, do Norte.

A Guerra de Biafra marcou profundamente os nigerianos.   Manter junta toda essa gente tão diversa, em torno de um projeto nacional, é obra de uma sofisticada engenharia política, particularmente no que diz respeito à partição do poder não apenas entre os três principais grupos étnicos (os iorubas, no Sul, os hauçá-fulanis, no Norte e os Ibos, no Sudoeste), mas também entre as autoridades formais do Estado e aquelas dos dirigentes tradicionais, que incluem reis, emires, e uma miríade de chefes e baronetes hierarquicamente subordinados.  A formação da nacionalidade não é um tema menor numa parte do mundo onde  a família, o clã, a tribo, a etnia formam – nessa ordem de prioridade-, os fundamentos das substruturas social, política e religiosa.

Vale recordar que os iorubas representam apenas um quinto da população da Nigéria (que hoje está na casa dos 200 milhões de habitante) cuja etnia predominante é a dos hauçá-fulanis, com cerca de 28% do total da população, de religião muçulmana, que ocupam as regiões mais áridas do centro e norte do país. Convivem esses os dois grupos humanos com 250 outros, cada qual com sua língua e costumes próprios, sendo numericamente mais importantes os ibos, os ijós, os canúris e os ibibios.

Com o retorno da democracia – e com a receita gerada pela exploração do petróleo – estabeleceu-se no país um modelo relativamente estável, onde o poder do Estado (exercido pelo governo federal e governos estaduais) encontrou formas de conviver de maneira harmônica com o mundo real dos líderes tradicionais, aos quais já nops referimos. Tensões existem – como as geradas pelo extremismo islâmico (Boko Haram) – mas não comprometem a integridade nacional, o sentimento de nacionalidade e, até certo ponto, a ordem interna.

***

Meu processo particular de descoberta da Nigéria – onde servi como embaixador do Brasil entre 2006 e 2008 teve início exatamente quando se concluía o acordo de paz em Biafra, tema que acompanhei como estagiário no Jornal do Brasil, no processamento do material produzido pelas agências noticiosas internacionais e que chegava à Redação .  Quanto mais lia sobre a Nigéria, mais se ampliava meu interesse pelo país e pelo continente africano. Ao longo do tempo esse interesse sempre se manteve. impulsionado por  quatro notáveis brasileiros, todos impregnados do ‘vicio’ nigeriano, profundos conhecedores daquele país africano.

Abre a lista o escritor Antônio Olinto, o primeiro a atiçar-me a curiosidade pela Nigéria, em 1969. Anos depois, na mesma vertente literária – mas com mais forte tintura histórica e sociológica -, receberia impulso decisivo da obra de meu colega (e antecessor na chefia do posto), o Embaixador Alberto da Costa e Silva. No mundo das concretudes, da política, da economia, das relações diplomáticas da Nigéria com o mundo e com o Brasil, decisiva foram as contribuições de dois amigos: o economista e empresário Roberto Giannetti da Fonseca e do Embaixador Pedro Fernando Brêtas Bastos, meu colega de turma no Instituto Rio Branco e autor da excepcional obra Nigéria: Ilusão de Grandeza e Real Vocação de Liderança. Considerações sobre as Relações com o Brasil, a aguardar publicação.

Dentre os países africanos não lusófonos, é com a Nigéria que o Brasil mantém as relações mais ativas nas esferas da cultura, da economia e do comércio. Trata-se de entendimento antigo, sustentado pelo intenso tráfico de escravos que existiu entre o Brasil e a Costa da Mina (Gana, Togo, Benin e Nigéria).

A antiguidade desses vínculos relacionados ao tráfico, as afinidades culturais (em particular da cultura nagô), vívidas ainda na Bahia, somam-se aos desafios e oportunidades da Nigéria como país independente para atrair a curiosidade de nossos pensadores, artistas e empresários.

Toma-se de encanto o brasileiro que desembarca em Lagos em primeira viagem (depois, claro, de vencer o choque do contato inicial a pujança um tanto desorganizada daquela megalópole), pelas semelhanças de usos e costumes da cultura africana baiana com os dos iorubas – ou nagôs- do Sudoeste do país, da arquitetura de velhas casas e sobrados de escravos retornados, no Brazilian Quarters.

Mas essa sensação de identidade logo se dissipará. A Nigéria é um país complexo e multifacetado. Tentar compreendê-la não é tarefa simples.

Há muito o que se falar da Nigéria e da África, de modo geral.  Prometo voltar ao tema.

Pedro Luiz Rodrigues foi embaixador do Brasil na Nigéria entre 2006 e 2008.

________________

LGCJ.: