US ECONOMICS

UMCA

DoC. October 21, 2019. Export and investment promotion. Remarks by Commerce Secretary Wilbur L. Ross at the USMCA Event with Vice President Pence. 

Thank you, Jay, for that very kind introduction. Thank you, also, to SCHOTT North America for hosting us.

As all of you here know, President Trump made a promise to reinvigorate manufacturing in our country. And I’m pleased to say today, that he has kept that promise. Thanks to his policies focused on rebuilding American industry, American jobs, and American prosperity, we are heading toward a more prosperous and hopeful future.

Since the election of President Trump, the United States has added 6.4 million new jobs, including 500,000 in the manufacturing sector. Unemployment remains at the lowest level in half a century. Wage growth at more than 3 percent is the highest rate since 1969. There are 1.3 million more open jobs than there are people unemployed.

Those excellent numbers didn’t happen by chance. The Trump administration has implemented tax, regulatory, trade and workforce policies aimed at making the United States the number-one place in the world for investment in new and expanded production capacity – by both American and International companies. All of these achievements came before the U.S. Mexico Canada Trade Agreement has passed Congress!

USMCA fixes a badly flawed deal, and we call on Congress to approve it as quickly as possible. It will create an estimated 175,000 more jobs and it is also clearly better than NAFTA in terms of labor and environmental provisions. So, there are no valid excuses for stalling it any more.

The votes needed to pass it are there in both Houses. It is time for Speaker Pelosi to do something that helps the American public and the American worker. We need USMCA, not more hearings on make believe charges against the President.

Thank you, again, for having me. And I thank the Vice President for his leadership on USMCA and his relentless support of better deals on behalf of the American people. Thank you.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

DoC. USITC. October 25, 2019. Trade enforcement. U.S. Department of Commerce Issues Affirmative Preliminary Antidumping Duty Determination on Sodium Sulfate Anhydrous from Canada

Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced an affirmative preliminary determination in the antidumping duty (AD) investigation of imports of sodium sulfate anhydrous from Canada, finding that exporters from this country have dumped sodium sulfate anhydrous in the United States at a rate of 9.85 percent.

As a result of today’s decision, Commerce will instruct U.S. Customs and Border Protection to collect cash deposits from importers of sodium sulfate anhydrous from Canada based on that preliminary rate.

In 2018, imports of sodium sulfate anhydrous from China were valued at an estimated $5.7 million.

The petitioner is Cooper Natural Resources, Inc. (Fort Worth, TX), Elementis Global LLC (East Windsor, NJ), and Searles Valley Minerals, Inc. (Overland Park, KS).

The strict enforcement of U.S. trade law is a primary focus of the Trump Administration. Since the beginning of the current Administration, Commerce has initiated 184 new antidumping and countervailing duty investigations – a 235 percent increase from the comparable period in the previous administration.

Antidumping and countervailing duty laws provide American businesses and workers with an internationally accepted mechanism to seek relief from the harmful effects of the unfair pricing of imports into the United States. Commerce currently maintains 498 antidumping and countervailing duty orders which provide relief to American companies and industries impacted by unfair trade.

Commerce is scheduled to announce the final determination on or about March 10, 2020.

If Commerce’s final determination is affirmative, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) will be scheduled to make its final injury determination on or about April 23, 2020. If Commerce makes an affirmative final determination of dumping, and the ITC makes an affirmative final injury determination, Commerce will issue an AD order. If Commerce makes a negative final determination of dumping, or the ITC makes a negative final determination of injury, the investigation will be terminated and no order will be issued.

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Enforcement and Compliance unit within the International Trade Administration is responsible for vigorously enforcing U.S. trade law and does so through an impartial, transparent process that abides by international rules and is based on factual evidence provided on the record.

Foreign companies that price their products in the U.S. market below the cost of production or below prices in their home markets are subject to antidumping duties. Companies that receive unfair subsidies from their governments, such as grants, loans, equity infusions, tax breaks, or production inputs, are subject to countervailing duties aimed at directly countering those subsidies.

Fact sheet: https://enforcement.trade.gov/download/factsheets/factsheet_canada_sodium_sulfate_anhydrous_ad_prelim_102519.pdf

DoC. USITC. October 25, 2019. Trade enforcement. U.S. Department of Commerce Announces Affirmative Preliminary Circumvention Ruling on Exports of Diamond Sawblades from China

Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced an affirmative preliminary circumvention ruling involving diamond sawblades and parts thereof, finding that diamond sawblades produced in Canada, using cores and segments of Chinese origin, are circumventing the existing antidumping duty order.

This circumvention inquiry only covers one Canadian company, Protech Diamond Tools Inc. Accordingly, Commerce will instruct U.S. Customs and Border Protection to suspend liquidation and to require a cash deposit of estimated duties on unliquidated entries of diamond sawblades produced, by Protech in Canada, using Chinese cores and Chinese segments. The applicable cash deposit rate will be equal to the rate previously established for the China-wide entity – 82.05 percent.

Commerce expects to issue its final ruling by February 24, 2020.

U.S. law provides that Commerce may find circumvention of antidumping or countervailing duty orders when merchandise subject to an existing order is completed or assembled in a third country from parts and components imported from the country subject to the order.

The strict enforcement of U.S. trade law is a primary focus of the Trump Administration. Since the beginning of the current Administration, Commerce has issued 30 preliminary or final affirmative determinations in anti-circumvention inquiries – a 233 percent increase from the number of such determinations made during the comparable period in the previous administration.

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Enforcement and Compliance unit within the International Trade Administration is responsible for vigorously enforcing U.S. trade law and does so through an impartial, transparent process that abides by international rules and is based on factual evidence provided on the record.

DoC. October 22, 2019. U.S. Department of Commerce Finds Dumping and Countervailable Subsidization of Imports of Aluminum Wire and Cable from China

Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the affirmative final determinations in the antidumping duty (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations of imports of aluminum wire and cable from China, finding that exporters from this country have sold aluminum wire and cable at less than fair value in the United States at rates of 58.51 percent to 63.47 percent. In addition, Commerce determined that exporters from China received countervailable subsidies at rates of 33.44 percent to 165.63 percent.

In 2018, imports of aluminum wire and cable from China were valued at an estimated $115 million.

The petitioners are Encore Wire Corporation (McKinney, TX) and Southwire Company, LLC (Carrollton, GA).

The strict enforcement of U.S. trade law is a primary focus of the Trump Administration. Since the beginning of the current Administration, Commerce has initiated 184 new antidumping and countervailing duty investigations – a 235 percent increase from the comparable period in the previous administration.

Antidumping and countervailing duty laws provide American businesses and workers with an internationally accepted mechanism to seek relief from the harmful effects of the unfair pricing of imports into the United States. Commerce currently maintains 498 antidumping and countervailing duty orders which provide relief to American companies and industries impacted by unfair trade.

The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) is currently scheduled to make its final injury determinations on or about December 2, 2019. If the ITC makes affirmative final injury determinations, Commerce will issue AD and CVD orders. If the ITC makes negative final determinations of injury, the investigations will be terminated and no orders will be issued.

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Enforcement and Compliance unit within the International Trade Administration is responsible for vigorously enforcing U.S. trade law and does so through an impartial, transparent process that abides by international rules and is based on factual evidence provided on the record.

Foreign companies that price their products in the U.S. market below the cost of production or below prices in their home markets are subject to antidumping duties. Companies that receive unfair subsidies from their governments, such as grants, loans, equity infusions, tax breaks, or production inputs, are subject to countervailing duties aimed at directly countering those subsidies.

Fact sheet: https://enforcement.trade.gov/download/factsheets/factsheet-prc-aluminum-wire-cable-ad-cvd-final-102219.pdf

DoC. USITC. October 22, 2019. Trade enforcement. U.S. Department of Commerce Initiates a Circumvention Inquiry into Imports of Rebar from Mexico

Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the initiation of a circumvention inquiry into imports of steel concrete reinforcing steel bar from Mexico, to determine if imports of rebar that are bent at one or both ends circumvent the existing antidumping duty (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) orders.

U.S. law provides that Commerce may conduct a circumvention inquiry when evidence suggests that merchandise subject to an existing AD/CVD order undergoes a minor alteration, bringing the product outside the scope of that order.

In 2018, imports of rebar from Mexico were valued at an estimated $51 million.

This inquiry was initiated in response to requests from U.S. domestic producers of rebar: Nucor Corporation, Gerdau Ameristeel U.S. Inc., Commercial Metals Company, Cascade Steel Rolling Mills, Inc., Byer Steel Group, Inc., and Steel Dynamics, Inc.

If Commerce preliminarily determines that circumvention is occurring, it will instruct Customs and Border Protection to begin collecting cash deposits on rebar from Mexico that is subject to the inquiry. These duties will be imposed on future imports, and on any unliquidated entries since the date on which Commerce initiated this circumvention inquiry.

The strict enforcement of U.S. trade law is a primary focus of the Trump Administration. Since the beginning of the current Administration, Commerce has initiated 26 new circumvention inquiries – a 189 percent increase from the number of circumvention initiations made during the comparable period in the previous administration.

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Enforcement and Compliance unit within the International Trade Administration is responsible for vigorously enforcing U.S. trade law and does so through an impartial, transparent process that abides by international rules and is based on factual evidence provided on the record.

DoC. USITC. October 21, 2019. Trade enforcement. U.S. Department of Commerce Continues Suspended Antidumping Investigation of Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico and Issues Final Affirmative Determination of Dumping

Today, at the request of U.S. tomato producers and as required by the statute, the Department of Commerce continued the antidumping duty investigation of fresh tomatoes from Mexico. Simultaneously, Commerce issued a final affirmative determination of dumping. However, the recently negotiated suspension agreement remains in force pending the outcome of an investigation by the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC). No antidumping duties will be imposed as a result of today’s action.

“At the request of domestic producers, the Department is completing the investigation into imports of Mexican fresh tomatoes,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “Now it is up to the International Trade Commission to determine whether dumped imports harm the American tomato industry – and whether, as a consequence, the suspension agreement will remain in place.”

On September 19, 2019, Commerce and Mexican tomato growers finalized an agreement suspending the Department’s antidumping investigation of fresh tomatoes from Mexico. The agreement contains strong enforcement provisions that completely eliminate the injurious effects of unfairly priced Mexican tomatoes, prevent price suppression and undercutting, and extinguish substantially all dumping. The agreement also removes major uncertainties for the Mexican growers and their workers.

Under the antidumping law, when there is a suspension agreement in place, interested parties may request that Commerce continue the suspended antidumping investigation. The Florida Tomato Exchange, whose members are domestic producers of tomatoes, submitted such a request on October 11. Red Sun Farms, another domestic producer, submitted a similar request on October 15. Under Section 734(g) of the Tariff Act of 1930, the Department is required to continue a suspended investigation after receiving such a request.

As a result of today’s action, the ITC is expected to continue its suspended investigation of whether imports of fresh tomatoes from Mexico injure, or threaten injury, to the domestic tomato industry. The suspension agreement will remain in place, pending the outcome of the ITC’s investigation. Additionally, the Department is instructing Customs and Border Protection to lift suspension of liquidation and to return importers’ cash deposits.

If the ITC’s final determination is affirmative, then the suspension agreement will remain in place. However, if the ITC’s final determination is negative, then Commerce and ITC will terminate their investigations, and the suspension agreement will have no force or effect, allowing tomatoes from Mexico to enter the United States free of antidumping duties.

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Enforcement and Compliance unit within the International Trade Administration is responsible for vigorously enforcing U.S. trade law and does so through an impartial, transparent process that abides by international rules and is based on factual evidence provided on the record.

DoC. USITC. October 21, 2019. Trade enforcement. U.S. Department of Commerce Continues Suspended Antidumping Investigation of Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico and Issues Final Affirmative Determination of Dumping

Today, at the request of U.S. tomato producers and as required by the statute, the Department of Commerce continued the antidumping duty investigation of fresh tomatoes from Mexico. Simultaneously, Commerce issued a final affirmative determination of dumping. However, the recently negotiated suspension agreement remains in force pending the outcome of an investigation by the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC). No antidumping duties will be imposed as a result of today’s action.

“At the request of domestic producers, the Department is completing the investigation into imports of Mexican fresh tomatoes,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “Now it is up to the International Trade Commission to determine whether dumped imports harm the American tomato industry – and whether, as a consequence, the suspension agreement will remain in place.”

On September 19, 2019, Commerce and Mexican tomato growers finalized an agreement suspending the Department’s antidumping investigation of fresh tomatoes from Mexico. The agreement contains strong enforcement provisions that completely eliminate the injurious effects of unfairly priced Mexican tomatoes, prevent price suppression and undercutting, and extinguish substantially all dumping. The agreement also removes major uncertainties for the Mexican growers and their workers.

Under the antidumping law, when there is a suspension agreement in place, interested parties may request that Commerce continue the suspended antidumping investigation. The Florida Tomato Exchange, whose members are domestic producers of tomatoes, submitted such a request on October 11. Red Sun Farms, another domestic producer, submitted a similar request on October 15. Under Section 734(g) of the Tariff Act of 1930, the Department is required to continue a suspended investigation after receiving such a request.

As a result of today’s action, the ITC is expected to continue its suspended investigation of whether imports of fresh tomatoes from Mexico injure, or threaten injury, to the domestic tomato industry. The suspension agreement will remain in place, pending the outcome of the ITC’s investigation. Additionally, the Department is instructing Customs and Border Protection to lift suspension of liquidation and to return importers’ cash deposits.

If the ITC’s final determination is affirmative, then the suspension agreement will remain in place. However, if the ITC’s final determination is negative, then Commerce and ITC will terminate their investigations, and the suspension agreement will have no force or effect, allowing tomatoes from Mexico to enter the United States free of antidumping duties.

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Enforcement and Compliance unit within the International Trade Administration is responsible for vigorously enforcing U.S. trade law and does so through an impartial, transparent process that abides by international rules and is based on factual evidence provided on the record.

DoC. U.S. Census Bureau. 10/28/2019. Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods

The advance international trade deficit in goods decreased to $70.4 billion in September from $73.1 billion in August as imports decreased more than exports.

• September 2019: 70.4° $ billion
• August 2019: 73.1° $ billion

(*) The 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable for these surveys. The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders estimates are not based on a probability sample, so we can neither measure the sampling error of these estimates nor compute confidence intervals.
(r) Revised.

All estimates are seasonally adjusted except for the Rental Vacancy Rate, Home Ownership Rate, Quarterly Financial Report for Retail Trade, and Quarterly Services Survey. None of the estimates are adjusted for price changes.

CUBA

U.S. Department of State. 10/25/2019. United States Restricts Scheduled Air Service to Cuban Airports

At the request of the Secretary of State, the U.S. Department of Transportation suspended until further notice scheduled air service between the United States and Cuban international airports other than Havana’s Jose Marti International Airport to prevent the Cuban regime from profiting from U.S. air travel. U.S. air carriers will have 45 days to discontinue all scheduled air service between the United States and all airports in Cuba, except for Jose Marti International Airport.

In line with the President’s foreign policy toward Cuba, this action prevents revenue from reaching the Cuban regime that has been used to finance its ongoing repression of the Cuban people and its support for Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. In suspending flights to a total of nine airports, the United States impedes the Cuban regime from gaining access to hard currency from U.S. travelers staying in its state-controlled resorts, visiting state-owned attractions, and otherwise contributing to the Cuban regime’s coffers near these airports.

United States continues to hold Cuba accountable for its repression of the Cuban people, and its interference in Venezuela, including its unconscionable support of the illegitimate Maduro regime. The human rights situation in Cuba remains abysmal, with state authorities harassing and arbitrarily jailing activists, dissidents, artists, and others questioning regime authority with impunity. Despite widespread international condemnation, Maduro continues to undermine his country’s institutions and subvert the Venezuelan people’s right to self-determination. Empowered by Cuba, Maduro has created a humanitarian disaster that destabilizes the region.

BOLIVIA

U.S. Department of State. 10/27/2019. United States Responds to Irregularities in Bolivia’s Presidential Election. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State

The United States believes that the Bolivian people have the right to choose their leaders in free and fair elections. This right is enshrined in the Inter-American Democratic Charter and in the Bolivian constitution. We are therefore deeply concerned over the irregularities in the vote counting process of Bolivia’s October 20 election.

The United States stands with our partners in the region and the OAS observers in calling for an accurate accounting of the votes cast, or if that is not feasible in the opinion of the OAS observer mission, a second round that is credible and transparent.

In the interim, we call for calm and continued respect for the rule of law. The world is watching Bolivia’s institutions and leaders to ensure that the voice and will of the Bolivian people are honored.

________________

INDICADORES/INDICATORS

• US ECONOMIC INDICATORS
• US INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
• BALANÇA COMERCIAL BRASILEIRA
• BACEN. BOLETIM FOCUS: RELATÓRIO SEMANAL DE MERCADO (Projeções atualizadas semanalmente pelas 100 principais instituições financeiras que operam no Brasil, para os principais indicadores da economia brasileira)
• BACEN. Indicadores Econômicos Consolidados (disponível até 01/10/2019)
• BACEN. Indicadores Econômicos Selecionados (disponível a partir de 02/10/2019)
• BACEN. IBC-Br (disponível a partir de 02/10/2019)
• BACEN. Câmbio
• BOVESPA
• INDICADORES DO BANCO MUNDIAL

________________

BACEN. BOLETIM FOCUS: RELATÓRIO SEMANAL DE MERCADO

(Projeções atualizadas semanalmente pelas 100 principais instituições financeiras que operam no Brasil, para os principais indicadores da economia brasileira)

ANÁLISE

BACEN. PORTAL G1. 28/10/2019. Mercado eleva expectativa de inflação e prevê alta maior do PIB em 2019. De acordo com pesquisa feita pelo Banco Central, projeção de inflação para este ano subiu de 3,26% para 3,29%. Estimativa de crescimento do PIB em 2019 avançou para 0,91%.
Por Alexandro Martello, G1 — Brasília

Os economistas do mercado financeiro elevaram a estimativa de inflação para este ano e também passaram a prever um crescimento maior da economia brasileira.

As projeções constam no boletim de mercado conhecido como relatório "Focus", divulgado nesta segunda-feira (28) pelo Banco Central (BC). O relatório é resultado de levantamento feito na semana passada com mais de 100 instituições financeiras.

De acordo com a instituição, os analistas do mercado financeiro aumentaram a estimativa de inflação para este ano de 3,26% para 3,29%. Com isso, foi interrompida uma sequência de 11 semanas de redução.

VEJA AS EXPECTATIVAS DO MERCADO PARA O IPCA DESTE ANO

30/01/10
● : 4

Fonte: Banco Central

A expectativa de inflação do mercado para 2019 segue abaixo da meta central, de 4,25%. O intervalo de tolerância do sistema de metas varia de 2,75% a 5,75%.

A meta de inflação é fixada pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN). Para alcançá-la, o Banco Central eleva ou reduz a taxa básica de juros da economia (Selic).

Para 2020, o mercado financeiro baixou a estimativa de inflação de 3,66% para 3,60%. Foi a quinta queda consecutiva do indicador. No próximo ano, a meta central de inflação é de 4% e terá sido oficialmente cumprida se o IPCA oscilar entre 2,5% e 5,5%.

PIB

Para este ano, a estimativa de alta do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) subiu de 0,88% para 0,91%. Para 2020, a previsão de crescimento do PIB continuou em 2%.

O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços feitos no país, independentemente da nacionalidade de quem os produz, e serve para medir o comportamento da economia brasileira.

Para 2019, a previsão do Banco Central é de uma alta de 0,9%, e a do Ministério da Economia é de um crescimento de 0,85%.

Outras estimativas

• Taxa de juros - O mercado manteve em 4,5% ao ano a previsão para a taxa Selic no fim de 2019. Atualmente, a taxa de juros está em 5,5% ao ano. Com isso, o mercado segue prevendo queda nos juros neste ano. Para o fim de 2020, a projeção recuou de 4,75% para 4,5% ao ano. Com isso, o mercado passou a prever estabilidade da Selic no ano que vem.
• Dólar - A projeção do mercado financeiro para a taxa de câmbio no fim de 2019 permaneceu em R$ 4 por dólar. Para o fechamento de 2020, continuou estável em R$ 4 por dólar.
• Balança comercial - Para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção em 2019 recuou de US$ 48,85 bilhões para US$ 47,50 bilhões de resultado positivo. Para o ano que vem, a estimativa dos especialistas do mercado recuou de US$ 45 bilhões para US$ 43 bilhões.
• Investimento estrangeiro - A previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil, em 2019, subiu de US$ 80 bilhões para US$ 80,35 bilhões. Para 2020, a estimativa dos analistas permaneceu em US$ 80 bilhões.

BACEN. REUTERS. 28 DE OUTUBRO DE 2019. Projeção para taxa básica de juros em 2020 cai; Top-5 vê Selic a 4%
Por Camila Moreira

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - O mercado reduziu ainda mais suas expectativas para a taxa básica de juros em 2020, com o grupo dos que mais acertam as previsões na pesquisa Focus vendo a Selic a 4%, em meio ao ciclo de afrouxamento do Banco Central.

A pesquisa geral, realizada com mais de uma centena de economistas e divulgada pelo BC nesta segunda-feira, mostra que a expectativa agora é de que a Selic termine tanto este ano quanto o próximo a 4,5%. Na semana anterior a estimativa era de Selic a 4,75% em 2020.

Entretanto o Top-5, grupo dos que mais acertam as previsões, vê os juros ainda mais baixos no próximo ano, a 4,0%, de uma expectativa anterior de 4,25%.

O BC reúne-se na quarta-feira para definir os próximos passos da política monetária, com uma expectativa unânime em pesquisa da Reuters de corte de 0,5 ponto percentual, para nova mínima recorde de 5%, em meio às fortes sinalizações do BC de mais afrouxamento.

Para a inflação, a projeção no Focus foi elevada pela primeira vez após 11 semanas de quedas, a 3,29%, de 3,26% antes. A estimativa para a alta do IPCA em 2020, por outro lado, caiu 0,06 ponto percentual, a 3,60%.

O centro da meta oficial de 2019 é de 4,25 por cento e, de 2020, de 4 por cento, ambos com margem de tolerância de 1,5 ponto percentual para mais ou menos.

Para o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), o mercado vê crescimento em 2019 de 0,91%, contra 0,88% antes, mantendo a perspectiva de expansão de 2,00% em 2020.

________________

ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRAZIL ECONOMICS

COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA

FGV. IBRE. 25/10/19. Sondagens e Índices de Confiança. Sondagem do Comércio. Confiança do Comércio de outubro apresenta resultado positivo depois de queda no mês anterior

O Índice de Confiança do Comércio (ICOM) da Fundação Getulio Vargas subiu 1,2 ponto em outubro, ao passar de 97,2 para 98,4 pontos. Em médias móveis trimestrais, o índice avançou 1,0 ponto, terceira alta consecutiva.

“Depois de registrar queda em setembro, a confiança do comércio volta a apresentar resultado positivo. A melhora foi influenciada pela evolução positiva dos indicadores de situação atual, possivelmente impulsionados pela liberação de recursos do FGTS, e pela acomodação das expectativas. Para o final do ano, a expectativa é de manutenção desse cenário positivo de recuperação gradual, com novas rodadas de liberações de recursos e com as recentes melhoras do mercado de trabalho”, avalia Rodolpho Tobler, Coordenador da Sondagem do Comércio da FGV IBRE.

Em setembro, a confiança subiu em 7 dos 13 segmentos. A melhora do índice foi influenciada pelo resultado favorável do Índice de Situação Atual (ISA-COM), que subiu 3,0 pontos, ao passar de 92,1 para 95,1 pontos. Já o Índice de Expectativas (IE-COM) recuou 0,6 ponto, saindo de 102,5 para 101,9 pontos. Apesar da queda, esse é o quarto mês consecutivo em que as expectativas se mantém acima do nível considerado neutro.

Duráveis, semiduráveis e não duráveis

Nos últimos meses, os resultados mostram uma tendência de recuperação na confiança do comércio, como pode ser observado na série em médias móveis trimestrais. Nos últimos três meses, o ISA-COM subiu 6,4 pontos, recuperando parte das perdas sofridas entre fevereiro e julho quando havia perdido 7,5 pontos. A alta recente foi mais influenciada pelos segmentos de semiduráveis e não duráveis. Vale ressaltar que os principais segmentos que se mostraram otimistas com a liberação de recursos do FGTS1 fazem parte do grupo de semiduráveis e não duráveis (exceto móveis e eletrodomésticos que são do grupo de duráveis).

DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/navegacao-superior/noticias/confianca-do-comercio-de-outubro-apresenta-resultado-positivo-depois-de-queda-no-mes-anterior.htm

CONSTRUÇÃO CIVIL

FGV. IBRE. 28/10/19. Índices Gerais de Preços. INCC-M. INCC-M varia 0,12% em Outubro

O Índice Nacional de Custo da Construção -M (INCC-M) variou 0,12% em outubro, percentual inferior ao apurado no mês anterior, quando a taxa foi de 0,60%. A taxa do índice relativo a Materiais, Equipamentos e Serviços variou 0,27% em outubro, ante 0,19% em setembro. O índice referente à Mão de Obra não registrou variação em outubro. Em setembro, este grupo havia subido 0,95%.

Materiais, Equipamentos e Serviços

No grupo Materiais, Equipamentos e Serviços, a variação correspondente a Materiais e Equipamentos foi 0,37%, contra 0,17% no mês anterior. Dois dos quatro subgrupos componentes apresentaram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação, destacando-se materiais para instalação cuja taxa passou de 0,35% para 1,51%.

A variação relativa a Serviços passou de 0,25% em setembro para -0,08% em outubro. Neste grupo, vale destacar o recuo da taxa do item projetos, que passou de 0,74% para -0,30%.

Mão de Obra

O índice referente à Mão de Obra não variou no mês atual.

DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/navegacao-superior/noticias/incc-m-varia-0-12-em-outubro.htm

FGV. IBRE. 28/10/19. Sondagens e Índices de Confiança. Sondagem da Construção. Confiança da Construção avança em outubro

O Índice de Confiança da Construção (ICST), da Fundação Getulio Vargas, subiu 0,4 ponto em outubro, para 87,5 pontos, após ter recuado 0,5 ponto no mês passado. Em médias móveis trimestrais, o índice aumentou 0,7 ponto, mantendo a tendência ascendente pelo quinto mês.

“O indicador de Situação Atual voltou a impulsionar a confiança do empresário da construção, apesar do indicador de Expectativas ter registrado queda pelo segundo mês. Esse cenário, que aponta sinais invertidos para a percepção relativa aos negócios no momento atual e nos próximos meses, mostra que há uma recuperação em curso, mas ainda não há segurança no empresário em relação a sua continuidade. Vale destacar que entre os fatores assinalados como limitadores da melhoria dos negócios, a demanda insuficiente permanece como o de maior relevância para todos os segmentos setoriais. Ou seja, o cenário de baixo crescimento do investimento responde por parte importante dessa insegurança em relação à retomada”, avaliou Ana Maria Castelo, Coordenadora de Projetos da Construção da FGV IBRE.

O resultado positivo do ICST em outubro deveu-se exclusivamente à melhora da situação corrente. O Índice de Situação Atual (ISA-CST) avançou 1,3 ponto, para 78,9 pontos, maior nível desde fevereiro de 2015 (81,4). Contribuiu para a melhora do ISA-CST, o indicador que mede a percepção sobre a situação atual da carteira de contratos, que cresceu 2,6 pontos, para 77,7 pontos.

O Índice de Expectativas (IE-CST) cedeu pelo segundo mês, ao cair 0,5 ponto, para 96,5 pontos. Este resultado veio da queda do indicador de demanda prevista nos próximos três meses, que recuou 0,2 ponto, para 97,4 pontos, e do indicador de tendência dos negócios nos próximos seis meses, que retraiu 0,7 ponto, para 95,6 pontos.

O Nível de Utilização da Capacidade (NUCI) do setor variou positivamente 0,7 ponto percentual, para 70,1%. Em relação aos NUCIs para Máquinas e Equipamentos e NUCI para Mão de Obra, as variações foram 0,5 e 0,7 ponto percentual.

Edificações

Em outubro, a confiança do empresário do segmento de Edificações registrou uma alta de 1,9 ponto, anulando grande parte da queda de setembro (-2,0 pontos). Tanto o ISA-CST como o IE-CST registraram melhora. Na comparação com outubro de 2018, o ICST de Edificações registrou elevação de 1,8, ficando abaixo média do setor, que foi de 5,6 pontos. No entanto, ao se separar os grupos desse segmento entre os que operam com os programas governamentais (MCMV e PAC) e os que não operam, nota-se que esse movimento decorre de uma percepção mais positiva dos empresários fora dos programas com crescimento de 6,7 pontos, enquanto, o ICST das empresas de Edificações que operam com os programas caiu 4,1 pontos. “A percepção empresarial é de que a diminuição dos recursos no PAC e no MCMV está contribuindo de forma negativa na retomada do setor”, observou Ana Maria Castelo.

DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/navegacao-superior/noticias/confianca-da-construcao-avanca-em-outubro.htm

________________

LGCJ.: