ORGANISMS
GLOBAL ECONOMY
IMF. JULY 23, 2019. Sluggish Global Growth Calls for Supportive Policies
By Gita Gopinath
In our July update of the World Economic Outlook we are revising downward our projection for global growth to 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020. While this is a modest revision of 0.1 percentage points for both years relative to our projections in April, it comes on top of previous significant downward revisions. The revision for 2019 reflects negative surprises for growth in emerging market and developing economies that offset positive surprises in some advanced economies.
Growth is projected to improve between 2019 and 2020. However, close to 70 percent of the increase relies on an improvement in the growth performance in stressed emerging market and developing economies and is therefore subject to high uncertainty.
Global growth is sluggish and precarious, but it does not have to be this way because some of this is self-inflicted. Dynamism in the global economy is being weighed down by prolonged policy uncertainty as trade tensions remain heightened despite the recent US-China trade truce, technology tensions have erupted threatening global technology supply chains, and the prospects of a no-deal Brexit have increased.
Global growth is sluggish and precarious, but it does not have to be this way because some of this is self-inflicted.
The negative consequences of policy uncertainty are visible in the diverging trends between the manufacturing and services sector, and the significant weakness in global trade. Manufacturing purchasing manager indices continue to decline alongside worsening business sentiment as businesses hold off on investment in the face of high uncertainty. Global trade growth, which moves closely with investment, has slowed significantly to 0.5 percent (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2019, which is its slowest pace since 2012. On the other hand, the services sector is holding up and consumer sentiment is strong, as unemployment rates touch record lows and wage incomes rise in several countries.
Among advanced economies—the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the euro area—grew faster than expected in the first quarter of 2019. However, some of the factors behind this—such as stronger inventory build-ups—are transitory and the growth momentum going forward is expected to be weaker, especially for countries reliant on external demand. Owing to first quarter upward revisions, especially for the United States, we are raising our projection for advanced economies slightly, by 0.1 percentage points, to 1.9 percent for 2019. Going forward, growth is projected to slow to 1.7 percent, as the effects of fiscal stimulus taper off in the United States and weak productivity growth and aging demographics dampen long-run prospects for advanced economies.
In emerging market and developing economies, growth is being revised down by 0.3 percentage points in 2019 to 4.1 percent and by 0.1 percentage points for 2020 to 4.7 percent. The downward revisions for 2019 are almost across the board for the major economies, though for varied reasons. In China, the slight revision downwards reflects, in part, the higher tariffs imposed by the United States in May, while the more significant revisions in India and Brazil reflect weaker-than-expected domestic demand.
For commodity exporters, supply disruptions, such as in Russia and Chile, and sanctions on Iran, have led to downward revisions despite a near-term strengthening in oil prices. The projected recovery in growth between 2019 and 2020 in emerging market and developing economies relies on improved growth outcomes in stressed economies such as Argentina, Turkey, Iran, and Venezuela, and therefore is subject to significant uncertainty.
Financial conditions in the United States and the euro area have further eased, as the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank adopted a more accommodative monetary policy stance. Emerging market and developing economies have benefited from monetary easing in major economies but have also faced volatile risk sentiment tied to trade tensions. On net, financial conditions are about the same for this group as in April. Low-income developing countries that previously received mainly stable foreign direct investment flows now receive significant volatile portfolio flows, as the search for yield in a low interest rate environment reaches frontier markets.
Increased downside risks
A major downside risk to the outlook remains an escalation of trade and technology tensions that can significantly disrupt global supply chains. The combined effect of tariffs imposed last year and potential tariffs envisaged in May between the United States and China could reduce the level of global GDP in 2020 by 0.5 percent. Further, a surprise and durable worsening of financial sentiment can expose financial vulnerabilities built up over years of low interest rates, while disinflationary pressures can lead to difficulties in debt servicing for borrowers. Other significant risks include a surprise slowdown in China, the lack of a recovery in the euro area, a no-deal Brexit, and escalation of geopolitical tensions.
With global growth subdued and downside risks dominating the outlook, the global economy remains at a delicate juncture. It is therefore essential that tariffs are not used to target bilateral trade balances or as a general-purpose tool to tackle international disagreements. To help resolve conflicts, the rules-based multilateral trading system should be strengthened and modernized to encompass areas such as digital services, subsidies, and technology transfer.
Policies to support growth
Monetary policy should remain accommodative especially where inflation is softening below target. But it needs to be accompanied by sound trade policies that would lift the outlook and reduce downside risks. With persistently low interest rates, macroprudential tools should be deployed to ensure that financial risks do not build up.
Fiscal policy should balance growth, equity, and sustainability concerns, including protecting society’s most vulnerable. Countries with fiscal space should invest in physical and social infrastructure to raise potential growth. In the event of a severe downturn, a synchronized move toward more accommodative fiscal policies should complement monetary easing, subject to country specific circumstances.
Lastly, the need for greater global cooperation is ever urgent. In addition to resolving trade and technology tensions, countries need to work together to address major issues such as climate change, international taxation, corruption, cybersecurity, and the opportunities and challenges of newly emerging digital payment technologies.
FULL DOCUMENT: https://blogs.imf.org/2019/07/23/sluggish-global-growth-calls-for-supportive-policies/
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ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRAZIL ECONOMICS
INFLAÇÃO
IBGE. 23/07/2019. Em julho, IPCA-15 foi de 0,09%
O Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo 15 (IPCA-15) variou 0,09% em julho, ficando próximo à taxa de junho (0,06%). No ano, o IPCA-15 acumula alta de 2,42% e, em 12 meses, de 3,27%, resultado abaixo dos 3,84% registrados nos 12 meses imediatamente anteriores. Em julho de 2018, a taxa havia sido de 0,64%.
| Período | TAXA |
|---|---|
| Julho de 2019 | 0,09% |
| Junho de 2019 | 0,06% |
| Julho de 2018 | 0,64% |
| Acumulado no ano | 2,42% |
| Acumulado nos 12 meses | 3,27% |
O grupo dos Transportes, que havia subido 0,25% no mês anterior, recuou 0,44% em julho, exercendo o impacto negativo mais intenso no índice do mês: -0,08 ponto percentual (p.p.). No lado das altas, o destaque ficou com o grupo Habitação, com variação de 0,43% e 0,07 p.p. de impacto. Alimentação e bebidas (0,03%), por sua vez, apresentou leve alta, após registrar queda de 0,64% em junho. Outros destaques foram Despesas pessoais (0,48%) e Saúde e cuidados pessoais (0,34%), com impactos de 0,05 p.p. e 0,04 p.p., respectivamente. Os demais grupos ficaram entre a queda de 0,19% em Vestuário e a alta de 0,14% em Comunicação, conforme mostra a tabela a seguir:
| Grupo | Variação (%) | Impacto (p.p.) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junho | Julho | Junho | Julho | |
| Índice Geral | 0,06 | 0,09 | 0,06 | 0,09 |
| Alimentação e bebidas | -0,64 | 0,03 | -0,16 | 0,01 |
| Habitação | 0,52 | 0,43 | 0,08 | 0,07 |
| Artigos de residência | 0,01 | -0,06 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Vestuário | 0,09 | -0,19 | 0,01 | -0,01 |
| Transportes | 0,25 | -0,44 | 0,05 | -0,08 |
| Saúde e cuidados pessoais | 0,58 | 0,34 | 0,07 | 0,04 |
| Despesas pessoais | 0,11 | 0,48 | 0,01 | 0,05 |
| Educação | 0,09 | 0,12 | 0,00 | 0,01 |
| Comunicação | 0,00 | 0,14 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
| Fonte: IBGE, Sistema Nacional de Índices de Preços ao Consumidor | ||||
O resultado do grupo dos Transportes (-0,44%) foi influenciado pela queda nos preços dos combustíveis (-3,00%), especialmente da gasolina (-2,79%), que foi o impacto negativo mais intenso no índice do mês, -0,12 p.p. O etanol, que já havia recuado em junho (-4,57%), teve nova queda (-4,55%) em julho, contribuindo com -0,04 p.p. O óleo diesel (-1,59%) e o gás veicular (-0,49%) também caíram, após as altas de 0,86% e 1,93%, respectivamente, em junho.
Ainda em Transportes, a alta de 0,38% nos ônibus urbanos decorre do reajuste de 9,09% nas tarifas de Belém (6,20%), vigente desde 5 de junho. Já nos ônibus intermunicipais (0,08%) destacam-se os reajustes de 10,00% em Fortaleza (2,23%), em vigor desde 25 de maio, e de 6,66% em Porto Alegre (0,14%), a partir de 1º de junho. O item ônibus interestadual (2,56%) reflete o reajuste, a partir de 1º de julho, de 3,20% no coe?ciente para cálculo do valor da passagem referencial para cada mercado.
A maior contribuição individual positiva no índice do mês também veio de um item dos Transportes: as passagens aéreas (18,10% e 0,07 p.p. de impacto no índice do mês), que já haviam subido 18,98% em junho.
Em Habitação (0,43%), o maior impacto (0,04 p.p.) foi o da energia elétrica (1,13%), que acelerou em relação a junho (0,64%) e subiu pelo sexto mês consecutivo. Após a vigência, no mês anterior, da bandeira tarifária verde, sem cobrança adicional na conta de luz, passou a vigorar, em julho, a bandeira amarela, que onera as contas de luz em R$ 1,50 a cada 100 quilowatts-hora consumidos.
As variações regionais vão desde a queda de 2,00% em Recife até a alta de 4,74% em Belo Horizonte, onde houve reajuste médio de 7,89% nas tarifas a partir de 28 de maio. Em São Paulo (2,05%), houve reajuste de 7,03% em uma das concessionárias, vigente desde 4 de julho. Além disso, foram registrados também reajustes em Curitiba (0,68%) – reajuste médio de 3,41%, em vigor desde 24 de junho – e Porto Alegre (0,25%), onde duas das três concessionárias de energia da região se fundiram e, de modo a unificar suas tarifas, foram concedidos reajustes de 3,61% e 6,19%, a partir de 19 de junho.
Ainda em Habitação, o resultado do item gás encanado (4,01%) reflete o reajuste de até 27,00% nas tarifas em São Paulo (10,07%), vigente desde 31 de maio. Já o resultado da taxa de água e esgoto (1,50%) é consequência da apropriação dos seguintes reajustes: Goiânia (2,31%) – reajuste de 5,79%, a partir de 1º de julho; Porto Alegre (1,51%) – reajuste de 7,69% nas tarifas de uma das concessionárias, a partir de 1º de julho; Salvador (4,45%) – reajuste de 4,70%, a partir de 12 de junho; Brasília (1,94%) – reajuste de 3,45%, a partir de 1º de junho; Curitiba (8,38%) – reajuste de 8,38%, a partir de 24 de maio, que não havia sido incorporado nos índices anteriormente.
Em Fortaleza (-2,49%), no dia 2 de julho, houve redução, de 15,86% para 4,31%, do reajuste concedido inicialmente em fevereiro. No entanto, a partir do dia 9 de julho, a redução foi cancelada e o reajuste de 15,86% voltou a vigorar.
O grupo Alimentação e bebidas (0,03%) teve ligeira alta, após cair 0,64% no mês anterior. A batata-inglesa (8,30%) e a cebola (12,81%) subiram em julho e contribuíram, cada uma, com 0,02 p.p. no IPCA-15 de julho. No lado das quedas, o destaque mais uma vez foi o feijão-carioca (-12,47%), cujos preços caíram pelo quarto mês seguido. As frutas (-1,22%) e o leite longa vida (-0,96%) também tiveram deflação em julho, este último após uma alta de 2,80% em junho.
Em Saúde e cuidados pessoais (0,34%), houve desaceleração em relação ao mês anterior (0,58%), especialmente por conta dos itens de higiene pessoal, cuja alta passou de 1,10% em junho para 0,14% em julho. O maior impacto individual no grupo veio do plano de saúde (0,80%), com 0,03 p.p.
O grupo Despesas pessoais (0,48%), por sua vez, acelerou em relação a junho (0,11%). Contribuíram para esse resultado as altas nos preços de alguns serviços, como cabeleireiro (0,82%), empregado doméstico (0,24%) e manicure (0,25%), e também o resultado de excursão (4,47%), que havia apresentado queda de 1,08% no IPCA-15 de junho.
Duas regiões tiveram deflação em julho (tabela a seguir). O menor índice foi no município de Goiânia (-0,19%), em função da queda no preço da gasolina (-3,35%). Já o maior resultado foi na região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro (0,26%), devido à alta das passagens aéreas (22,93%).
| Região | Peso Regional (%) | Variação Mensal (%) | Variação Acumulada (%) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junho | Julho | Ano | 12 meses | ||
| Rio de Janeiro | 12,46 | -0,01 | 0,26 | 2,54 | 3,18 |
| Belém | 4,65 | -0,11 | 0,25 | 2,98 | 3,91 |
| Brasília | 3,46 | 0,30 | 0,22 | 2,01 | 2,76 |
| Fortaleza | 3,49 | 0,28 | 0,21 | 3,55 | 4,03 |
| Belo Horizonte | 11,23 | 0,10 | 0,20 | 2,55 | 3,13 |
| Curitiba | 7,79 | 0,04 | 0,18 | 1,77 | 2,41 |
| Salvador | 7,35 | 0,03 | 0,13 | 2,75 | 3,16 |
| Recife | 5,05 | -0,03 | 0,10 | 2,72 | 2,86 |
| Porto Alegre | 8,40 | -0,21 | 0,06 | 2,38 | 3,53 |
| São Paulo | 31,68 | 0,16 | -0,06 | 2,36 | 3,54 |
| Goiânia | 4,44 | -0,02 | -0,19 | 1,67 | 3,08 |
| Brasil | 100,00 | 0,06 | 0,09 | 2,42 | 3,27 |
| Fonte: IBGE, Sistema Nacional de Índices de Preços ao Consumidor | |||||
Para o cálculo do IPCA-15, os preços foram coletados entre 13 de junho e 12 de julho de 2019 (referência) e comparados com aqueles vigentes entre 16 de maio e 12 de junho de 2019 (base). O indicador refere-se às famílias com rendimento de 1 a 40 salários mínimos e abrange as regiões metropolitanas do Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador e Curitiba, além de Brasília e Goiânia. A metodologia utilizada é a mesma do IPCA, a diferença está no período de coleta dos preços e na abrangência geográfica.
IPCA-15 fica em 0,09% em julho pressionado pela queda nos preços dos combustíveis. O preço da gasolina caiu 2,79% e pressionou para baixo a prévia da inflação de julho
O Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo 15 (IPCA-15) subiu 0,09% em julho após registrar 0,06% no mês anterior. A queda nos preços dos combustíveis voltou a pressionar o índice para baixo, mesmo com os aumentos das passagens aéreas e da energia elétrica.
No ano, a prévia da inflação acumula alta de 2,42% e, em 12 meses, de 3,27%, conforme divulgado hoje pelo IBGE.
A maior influência negativa no índice de julho ficou com o grupo dos transportes, que caiu 0,44% em relação a junho, revertendo o alta de 0,25%, e contribuindo com -0,08 ponto percentual (p.p.).
Os transportes também foram responsáveis pelos principais impactos individuais tanto para baixo, devido ao preço da gasolina, com queda de 2,79%, quanto para cima, por conta das passagens aéreas, que cresceram 18,10%.
Os demais combustíveis também tiveram recuo nos preços em julho, com o etanol a -4,55%, o óleo diesel a -1,59% e o gás veicular a -0,49%.
IPCA15 - Variação mensal (%)
Clique e arraste para zoom
Fonte: IBGE - Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo 15
Já o grupo habitação, que subiu 0,43%, foi responsável pela maior influência positiva no IPCA-15, com 0,07 p.p. O maior impacto foi da energia elétrica (1,13%), que teve a sexta alta seguida. O aumento deste mês foi devido à entrada em vigor da bandeira amarela, que onera as contas de luz em R$ 1,50 a cada 100 quilowatts-hora consumidos.
Entre os demais grupos que compõem o IPCA-15, alimentação e bebidas apresentou leve alta de 0,03%, após registrar queda de 0,64% em junho. Destaque também despesas pessoais (0,48%) e saúde e cuidados pessoais (0,34%), com impactos de 0,05 p.p. e 0,04 p.p., respectivamente.
Os outros grupos ficaram entre a queda de 0,19% em vestuário e a alta de 0,14% em comunicação.
DOCUMENTO: https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/agencia-sala-de-imprensa/2013-agencia-de-noticias/releases/25059-em-julho-ipca-15-foi-de-0-09
FGV. IBRE. 23/07/19. Índices Gerais de Preços. IPC-S. Inflação pelo IPC-S avança na terceira semana de julho
O IPC-S de 22 de julho de 2019 subiu 0,18%, ficando 0,04 ponto percentual (p.p) acima da taxa registrada na última divulgação.
Nesta apuração, cinco das oito classes de despesa componentes do índice registraram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação. A maior contribuição partiu do grupo Habitação (0,37% para 0,61%). Nesta classe de despesa, cabe mencionar o comportamento do item tarifa de eletricidade residencial, cuja taxa passou de 1,31% para 3,04%.
Também registraram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação os grupos: Despesas Diversas (0,10% para 0,29%), Alimentação (0,26% para 0,29%), Transportes (-0,61% para -0,59%) e Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,32% para 0,33%). Nestas classes de despesa, vale destacar o comportamento dos itens: alimentos para animais domésticos (0,50% para 1,80%), frutas (-0,45% para 1,37%), gasolina (-2,53% para -2,28%) e produtos farmacêuticos (-0,26% para 1,37%).
Em contrapartida, os grupos Educação, Leitura e Recreação (0,55% para 0,23%), Vestuário (-0,04% para -0,30%) e Comunicação (0,04% para 0,03%) apresentaram recuo em suas taxas de variação. Nestas classes de despesa, vale citar os itens: passagem aérea (13,71% para 5,50%), roupas (-0,08% para -0,43%) e mensalidade para internet (0,49% para 0,39%).
DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/navegacao-superior/noticias/inflacao-pelo-ipc-s-avanca-na-terceira-semana-de-julho.htm
FGV. IBRE. 23/07/19. Sondagens e Índices de Confiança. Indicador de Expectativa de Inflação dos Consumidores. Resultados favoráveis da inflação de junho afetam expectativa do consumidor
A expectativa mediana dos consumidores para a inflação nos 12 meses seguintes recuou 0,1%, de 5,4% em junho para 5,3% em julho. Em relação ao mesmo mês do ano anterior houve queda de 0,1 ponto percentual.
“É provável que a ligeira queda da expectativa de inflação dos consumidores esteja refletindo os resultados favoráveis da inflação de junho, como o recuo dos preços dos alimentos, da gasolina, gás de botijão e das tarifas de energia elétrica, que compõem grande parte da cesta de consumo das famílias, principalmente daquelas de menor renda. Para os próximos meses, dado que a inflação segue controlada e que as projeções dos analistas continuam a cair, é possível que a expectativa dos consumidores mantenha a tendência de desaceleração”, afirma Renata de Mello Franco, economista da FGV/IBRE.
Analisando a frequência da inflação prevista por faixas de respostas, a parcela dos consumidores que projetam valores abaixo da meta de inflação para 2019 (de 4,25%), aumentou de 33,4% em junho para 37,7% em julho. Enquanto isso, a proporção de consumidores projetando valores igual ou superior à meta de inflação para 2019 caiu 4,3 ponto percentual (p.p.), para 62,3%.
Na análise por faixas de renda, as maiores quedas em julho nas expectativas medianas para a inflação nos 12 meses seguintes ocorreram nos extremos. Para as famílias com renda familiar mensal até R$ 2.100,00 a expectativa mediana diminuiu 0,3 p.p., para 5,9%, o menor valor desde julho do ano passado (5,8%). Para os consumidores de renda superior a R$ 9.600, o valor caiu 0,2 p.p., para 4,5%, o menor valor desde março deste ano.
DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/navegacao-superior/noticias/resultados-favoraveis-da-inflacao-de-junho-afetam-expectativa-do-consumidor.htm
COMÉRCIO EXTERIOR BRASILEIRO
MAPA. 23/07/2019. Comércio Exterior. China abre mercado para lácteos brasileiros, anuncia Tereza Cristina. Brasil poderá exportar itens como leite em pó e queijo para o país asiático
A China abriu mercado para os produtos lácteos brasileiros. Os chineses habilitaram 24 estabelecimentos brasileiros para exportação de produtos como leite em pó e queijos. O anúncio foi feito pela ministra Tereza Cristina (Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento) nesta terça-feira (23).
A ministra destacou que a abertura do mercado irá impulsionar a cadeia produtiva do leite. "Acho que é uma notícia excepcional para o setor leiteiro que passa por um momento muito difícil, sem esperança. E isso traz esperança para a indústria de leite", comemorou.
Atualmente, há 1,2 milhão de pequenos produtores de leite no Brasil. "Fiquei muito feliz e gostaria de passar essa boa notícia para os produtores brasileiros, que estão vivendo um momento difícil, acabaram de perder R$ 0,30 no litro de leite, e agora vão poder ter a perspectiva. É claro que não é para amanhã, mas é uma abertura excelente para o Brasil".
Tereza Cristina destacou que "o Brasil sempre quis ter acesso ao mercado chinês, para poder tirar o produto do Brasil, melhorando, inclusive o preço dos produtores brasileiros”.
A certificação estava acordada com a China desde 2007, mas não havia nenhuma planta brasileira habilitada a exportar. Na viagem que fez ao país em maio, o assunto foi uma das prioridades da ministra. "O Brasil é um grande produtor e a China é a o maior importador do mundo. O Brasil produz 600 milhões de toneladas de leite, mas a China importa 800 milhões de toneladas, 200 milhões de toneladas a mais do que produzimos".
Antes, em abril deste ano, o ministério havia encaminhado a lista dos 24 estabelecimentos ao país asiático. Entre os produtos que poderão ser exportados estão não fluidos, como leite em pó, queijos e leite condensado. "Queijos brasileiros poderão ser exportados e, com isso, regulamentar o mercado de leite brasileiro”, ressaltou Tereza Cristina.
Exportações
Com a habilitação dos estabelecimentos, a expectativa é o setor exportar US$ 4,5 milhões em queijos, estima a Viva Lácteos - Associação Brasileira de Laticínios. Em 2018, os chineses importaram 108 mil toneladas em queijos. A importação do produto tem crescido a uma taxa média anual de 13% nos últimos cinco anos.
No ano passado, o valor embarcado de queijo somou US$ 18 milhões, com crescimento de 65,2% nos últimos 3 anos.
O setor lácteo brasileiro exportou, em 2018, para mais de 50 destinos. Antes da abertura do mercado chinês, o setor já vinha investindo no ingresso dos produtos na China, por meio da participação em feiras.
PR. MRE. REUTERS. 23 DE JULHO DE 2019. Bolsonaro visita China e três países árabes em outubro para melhorar as relações comerciais
Por Lisandra Paraguassu
BRASÍLIA (Reuters) - Depois das dificuldades criadas no início do seu governo com os países árabes e a China, o presidente Jair Bolsonaro planeja para o final de outubro uma rodada de viagens incluindo Catar, Arábia Saudita e Emirados Árabes Unidos, e terminando na China.
O roteiro ainda está sendo finalizado pelo Palácio do Planalto e o Itamaraty, e pode incluir também o Japão, para a entronização oficial do novo imperador japonês, Naruhito, em 22 de outubro.
Bolsonaro já havia anunciado que iria a China, maior parceiro comercial do Brasil, ainda este ano, e que gostaria de visitar também alguns países árabes. A visita é uma tentativa de recuperar o desgaste nas relações criados a partir de declarações do presidente durante a campanha e também no início de seu governo.
A promessa de Bolsonaro de mudar a embaixada brasileira de Tel Aviv para Jerusalém, seguindo os passos do presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, repercutiu negativamente entre os países árabes, ameaçando prejudicar a relação comercial do Brasil com a região, uma das maiores compradoras de proteína animal brasileira, especialmente aves.
Em relação a China, o presidente, ainda em campanha, fez vários comentários sobre o que chamava de risco dos chineses “comprarem o Brasil”.
Pragmáticos, os chineses mantiveram silêncio e, recentemente, com a visita do vice-presidente Hamilton Mourão a Pequim, a relação teria mostrado avanços.
De acordo com uma fonte palaciana, o presidente quer incluir a entronização do novo imperador japonês no roteiro, mas o Planalto ainda estuda se será possível. Bolsonaro já se comprometeu à comparecer à missa de celebração da canonização de Irmã Dulce, no dia 20 de outubro, em Salvador, o que dificultaria sua chega a Tóquio a tempo da entronização.
O presidente também já confirmou sua ida a Nova York, no final de setembro, para a abertura da Assembleia Geral das Nações Unidas, em que o presidente brasileiro é tradicionalmente o primeiro a discursar.
ARRECADAÇÃO
MEconomia. RFB. 23/07/2019. Arrecadação. Receita arrecadou R$ 119,94 bilhões em junho. No período acumulado, de janeiro a junho de 2019, a arrecadação registrou o valor de R$ 757,59 bilhões
A arrecadação total das receitas federais atingiu, em junho de 2019, o valor de R$ 119,94 bilhões, registrando acréscimo real (IPCA) de 4,68% em relação a junho de 2018.
Equipe técnica apresenta resultado da arrecadação de tributos federais e contribuições previdenciárias do mês de junho. Foto: Divulgação/ME
No período acumulado, de janeiro a junho de 2019, a arrecadação registrou o valor de R$ 757,59 bilhões, representando um acréscimo real (IPCA) de 1,80% em relação ao mesmo período do ano anterior.
Quanto às receitas administradas pela RFB, o valor arrecadado, em junho de 2019, foi de R$ 116,72 bilhões, representando um crescimento real (IPCA) de 4,43%, enquanto que no período acumulado de janeiro a junho de 2019, a arrecadação alcançou R$ 726,64 bilhões, representando um acréscimo real (IPCA) de 1,17%.
RESULTADO: https://receita.economia.gov.br/dados/receitadata/arrecadacao/relatorios-do-resultado-da-arrecadacao
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US ECONOMICS
MEXICO
U.S. Department of State. 07/22/2019. Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo with Buck Sexton of iHeartMedia
QUESTION: All right, Buck Sexton here with the Buck Sexton Show. We are joined by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Mr. Secretary, we are here in Mexico City. Thank you so much for your time.
SECRETARY POMPEO: Buck, it’s great to be with you.
QUESTION: So let’s start with the migration crisis, if we can. What needs to be done by our Mexican counterparts to meet the Trump deadline? What have they done so far and where are there still some areas that might need to be further negotiated?
SECRETARY POMPEO: So we’re now just about 45 days after the agreement that the State Department worked out with Marcelo Ebrard and his ministry, foreign ministry here in Mexico. We’ve made real progress. There’s a whole lot more enforcement on the Mexican side, both on their southern border and increased enforcement on their northern border as well. We now have processes – the Migration Protection Protocols and plans – that are being executed. It has reduced the number of illegal transits coming across our border, but it’s still too high. There’s still more work that needs to be done. We need to do this cooperatively; we may have to find methodologies. There’s no silver bullet, but we need to create a model that deters these people from taking this track which is so dangerous and so harmful to so many people leaving the Northern Triangle and transiting through Mexico.
QUESTION: What is the status of the safe third country agreement right now with Mexico? Do you think it will hold? People are talking about possible court challenges. Is the Mexican Government committed to continuing to hold migrants as they try to cross through and make their way to the United States?
SECRETARY POMPEO: So I’m going to talk to Foreign Minister Ebrard today about the safe third agreement, about all the other elements of the combined plan as well. People tend to focus on one thing at a time. In fact, it’s going to be a series of things that deliver this outcome of American sovereignty, American protection at its border. It’s going to take more work on our side as well, so there are many pieces of this puzzle. I just – when folks single out a particular document or a particular theory of how we’re going to stop this, I always caution them that this is a challenging problem. We have to be aggressive on every front.
QUESTION: Is the Mexican Government sufficiently committed to helping us on this?
SECRETARY POMPEO: The only thing that matters is the numbers, right? The only thing that matters is not words, not pieces of paper, not agreements, but in the end: are we able to successfully control our border? I’ve watched their re-engagement. I applaud them for that – applaud President Obrador for taking steps that the previous government wasn’t prepared to take, and that’s good news, but we’ve got to get to a better place. We’re still not where America needs to be, and frankly, I think it’s not only better for America but I think it’s better for the people of Northern Triangle and Mexico as well.
QUESTION: I understand you’ll be in El Salvador, part of the Northern Triangle. How are they handling their end of the partnership here to deal with this crisis? What do we expect from them, what do we want from them, and what can they do?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Buck, we have broadened our diplomatic engagement with the Northern Triangle. We’ve taken this very seriously. Many of the folks that we apprehend today at our southern border are not only from those three countries but are transiting through those three countries. They have an obligation. It’s interesting – I saw some statistics on how many Guatemalans have left, how deep the level of migration is. This isn’t good for Guatemala to have their citizens leaving either. They need their people to want to stay in the country, and their leaders need to create rule of law and systems that will convince them that that’s the right thing to do.
But in the interim, we have enforcement measures and deterrence measures that we have to put in place, so I’ll be with the new leader in El Salvador and I’ll speak with the Guatemalans later this week as well by phone. There’s still a lot of work to do as they are – there are too many people leaving the Northern Triangle and transiting Mexico.
QUESTION: Now, switching to Iran for a moment, there was obviously a downed drone, Iranian drone. The Iranian foreign minister seems to think it did not happen. You’ve already confirmed that did in fact happen. The Iranians have a doorway to move away from bellicose behavior. They have a path. What is that path?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Path’s really simple. What President Trump is asking of the leadership in Iran is to behave like a normal nation. We’re not asking – I saw – last night I saw Foreign Minister Zarif say what about the things that Pompeo asked for? There were these 12 points that we laid out. Really, these are a set of simple requests – that the Iranian regime refrain from killing people in Europe, assassination campaigns around the world; release our hostages, stop your nuclear enrichment and your weapons program, cease preparing missiles that threaten Israel – some simple demands. And Foreign Minister Zarif said, well, this would be annihilation for my country. I’ll have the words a little bit off, but he said this would be national annihilation.
Nothing could be further from the truth. What we’ve asked the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran to do is to behave like a normal country – grow your economy, take care of your own people, stop arming proxy forces that are killing people all around the world and threatening American interests around the world. If they do those things, President Trump is happy to engage them in the way that we engage other countries around the world.
QUESTION: Do you think the pressure campaign has a realistic shot of making them concede to those requests?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Remember the mission set of the pressure campaign. The first priority was to deny the Iranian leadership resources. Previous administration taken a different approach. It said olly olly oxen free, here’s all the money you can possibly stand to build out your terror campaign, to build your nuclear weapons system, to take nuclear physicists, all of the things that money can deliver – terror against Israel out of Hizballah and from Syria. Our – the first proposition for our campaign was to deny wealth and resources for the Iranian leadership, and it has been enormously successful in doing so. You can see it. Hizballah is passing the tin cup.
Whether this will ultimately lead Iran to make the right, rational decision to engage in a negotiation, I’m hopeful, but ultimately the decision will have to be that of the ayatollah.
QUESTION: And what can you tell us about the status of the ongoing discussions with the Chinese to get some kind of trade agreement? Obviously, what has been called a trade war has been going on for quite some time. I know the President said there’s been some good stuff recently without a whole lot of specifics. Where are we and what are the stumbling blocks?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Buck, I can’t give you many more specifics either. I had an update earlier this week on the status of the negotiations between the Chinese and Secretary Mnuchin and Ambassador Lighthizer. They’re moving forward.
In the end, the stumbling blocks are this central set of issues. It is: how is China going to engage in the world? Are they going to continue to steal intellectual property? Are they going to continue to force American businesses that participate and invest in their economy to transfer technology? Do they want the rule of law? Are they prepared to lower their tariffs so that they’re equitable, fair, and reciprocal? Those are the things that are being negotiated. Those are sort of the set of demands that we put on every country that we trade with. We hope the Chinese will see that that’s in their 1 billion people’s best interest, but so far, the Chinese Communist Party has said that this is not something that they’re prepared to live with.
QUESTION: And sticking in roughly the same geography, the status of the ongoing talks with North Korea. What reasons should the American people have right now for optimism? Some obviously have been frustrated from the beginning; others are willing to give the President more leeway because there’s been pretty bipartisan failure on this for a while. Why should people think this is going to work?
SECRETARY POMPEO: When we came into office, it was in a bad place. President Trump made the decision to engage with them in a serious way. We’re continuing to try to do that. We hope that the working-level discussions will begin in a couple of weeks. The North Koreans have to go fill the promise that Chairman Kim made. He promised that he would denuclearize his country. He did so publicly in a written document; he said so to President Trump. He has told me that half a dozen times personally. They have to make a decision that they’re prepared to go execute that.
In exchange for that, President Trump’s been very clear: We’re prepared to provide a set of security arrangements that gives them comfort that if they disband their nuclear program, that the United States won’t attack them in the absence of that; and second, a brighter future for the North Korean people. That’s the outlines of the agreement that Chairman Kim and President Trump have made. We now need the North Korean negotiators to begin to build out on those principles that the two leaders have set forward.
QUESTION: Is there clarity on that major point of what denuclearization means?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Absolutely. I’ve talked to Chairman Kim about this many, many times. Absolute clarity. There’s no dispute. This is the fully denuclearized, verified effort that we have been talking about for all of this time. I hear people talk about whether there’s ambiguity. There’s no ambiguity.
QUESTION: And if I could just bring us back to Latin America quickly, Venezuela, a place where people have been thinking for a while maybe there would be a shift in who’s ruling the country. Who the president of the country is is obviously still in dispute. What has the U.S. been doing recently and what should our role be trying to help oust somebody who is illegitimate, Maduro, and push into power someone the Venezuelan people have already – the parliament has already decided should be in power with Guaido?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Two things, Buck. First, the transformation – you saw a little bit of it yesterday when we were in Ecuador together. The transformation here in South America – in Brazil, in Ecuador, in Paraguay – is enormous, moving towards freedom, moving towards democracy, trying to get their economies back on free market footings. That’s closely related to what we’re trying to do in Venezuela. We’re trying to get Venezuela back to that same place. You can see what socialism did there. A decade of destruction has now put the Venezuelan people in a place where as many as 5 million Venezuelans will have fled their country over the course of the next – by the time we get to the end of this year.
Our mission set is to work with allies. We have almost 60 countries now who have recognized the correct, proper, duly elected leader of Venezuela, Juan Guaido. We have the OAS and the Lima Group each working towards the same objective. It’s (inaudible). We’ll – two things. One, Maduro leaving is important. He needs to leave. He’s not the duly elected leader and there can’t be free and fair elections while he’s there in Venezuela, but second, while that’s necessary, the Cubans need to leave as well. A new leader with thousands of Cuban intelligence and defense officials still inside the country won’t have the capacity to deliver for the Venezuelan people. So we’re using tools in the American arsenal that cause the incentive system to change so that we can get to that objective.
QUESTION: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, thank you so much for your time, sir. I appreciate it.
SECRETARY POMPEO: Buck, wonderful to be with you. Thank you.
ECUADOR
U.S. Department of State. 07/23/2019. Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo With Estefani Espin of Ecuavisa
QUESTION: U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, thanks for joining us and welcome to Ecuador.
SECRETARY POMPEO: Thank you. It’s great to be with you, Estefani.
QUESTION: The United States and Ecuador have – share a story of cooperation through many years, but the last decade wasn’t in these best terms, if we could say. But now that we’re trying to rebuild, in what ways would you think we can still stand cooperations in areas of mutual interest like security and narcotrafficking?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Yeah, your point is well taken. We had a bad decade. There were many years where the relationship between the two countries wasn’t appreciated. Now it’s completely different. This is fantastic. America is excited about it. The Ecuadorian people are excited by this. This a good thing, and lots of ways we can expand it. First we think there’s more opportunities for Ecuadorian companies to come and be successful in the United States and for American companies to come here and be successful. We think there are enormous opportunities on counternarcotics, to make sure that there is less corruption here in this country and in the region, and fewer drugs coming to the United States of America. We’ve watched good work where Ecuador has come and asked the United States for help on cybersecurity and many other areas, and President Moreno has been fantastic in making sure that this cooperation benefited both countries, both the people of Ecuador and the people of the United States.
QUESTION: Now, how did he do it? We had – 2014, that security cooperation office based in the U.S. embassy was shut down, and that forced some U.S. military personnel to actually leave the country. So one thing was reestablishing an office of security cooperation, military cooperation, and then another thing is a military base. You’re not looking for that.
SECRETARY POMPEO: No, we’re not looking for that. We’re looking to do what the Ecuadorian Government asked us to do, to assist the Ecuadorian people. We’ll do this well and we’ll do it in a way that respects the rights of the people of Ecuador, and we’ll help this government deliver the things that it has promised to deliver on behalf of the Ecuadorian people, and in the same way this will be good for the people of the United States of America. This is – it is truly a new era in our relationship, but I think that is powerful and important for our two countries, and importantly, as well for the region.
QUESTION: You just had a meeting with our president. Did you – what did you discuss about those aspects?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Yeah, we talked about a lot of things. We talked about the challenges that Ecuador is facing from the crisis that is taking place in Venezuela. The Ecuadorian people have been heroic in allowing and taking care of now 350,000-plus refugees from Venezuela. This is a crisis of epic proportions in Venezuela. The United States is trying to do its part to reduce the risk in the region and around the world from the Maduro regime. It’s time for him to leave. At the same time, we’ve provided over $30 million here in Ecuador to assist in Ecuador’s ability to handle this influx of people who have left Venezuela. But we talked about a wide range of topics that ranged from good government reforms to economic cooperation, growing our two economies. Just about everything.
QUESTION: Talking about economics, the United States is Ecuador’s principal trading partner. We still benefit from doing free tariff to certain products under the GSP until 2020, but we have our neighbors like Colombia having a trade promotion agreement. How far are we from that?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Yeah, I don’t know exactly the timing, but we’re prepared. We’ll have a – what’s called the Trade and Investment Council meet here before too long, in the coming months. We’ll begin to work our way towards that. We want to make sure, as President Trump has made clear, in every country with which America does business, we want to make sure that each country has the opportunity to grow its own economy so that you can create jobs and wealth for our kids and our grandkids both places. So a trade agreement will achieve that and we’ll continue to work towards it. The timeline I think remains unknown.
QUESTION: Now, what we had with the European Union, for example, was an agreement, a multilateral agreement --
SECRETARY POMPEO: Yeah.
QUESTION: -- kind of like with Colombia, our neighbors, like that. Would you think that would work for the region also?
SECRETARY POMPEO: It might, but I think the first step would be for the two of us, the two countries, to get our bilateral agreement, an agreement just between our two countries, in the right place. At that point in time I think we can do what’s more complicated and it’ll take many more years, as those agreements did, to ultimately achieve.
QUESTION: Now, this government has expressed interest in improving bilateral relations with the United States. The country will receive 10 billion loans from multilateral institutions like the World Bank, like the Inter-American Development Bank, the IMF, and most of them were subject to approval actually in Washington also. Were those loans ever conditioned, for example, to the Ecuadorian Government’s decisions like to give up on Assange the – after seven years?
SECRETARY POMPEO: No. We – those were economic decisions made to create opportunities for the Ecuadorian people. They weren’t conditioned on second- or third-order issues. These were economic decisions. In each case – I think as you described them, if I listened correctly to your question, in each case the United States was incredibly supportive of those resources being made available to Ecuador so it could continue to grow its economy.
QUESTION: And would you say that’s because there’s actually a new idea of trusting on how Ecuador is making decisions?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Yes, I think that’s definitely true. I think President Moreno and his government have demonstrated their trustworthiness, their capacity to continue to deliver for the Ecuadorian people and to do so in a way that wasn’t corrupt, that was transparent and had all the hallmarks of good democracy. This is an important thing and you – it’s very difficult to grow an economy under conditions that are different from that, and we have great confidence in President Moreno and his team.
QUESTION: In the executive summary of the U.S. Department of State report of reviewing Ecuador – this is 2017 – the U.S. talked about investment climate statements in Ecuador. They mentioned corruption like a serious problem in Ecuador. Actually, they point at two high-profile cases we had in Ecuador with petroleum, Petroecuador and Odebrecht. Now, that was 2017. You still have same overview or things you think we still need to work on?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Well, I don’t want to comment on particular cases. I can say this: We have enormous confidence in President Moreno and his team and that they are moving this country in the right direction and acting in ways that are good for the Ecuadorian people, good for democracy, good for the things that America values. And so you can see that in all the engagements we’ve had between the United States since President Trump took office in the beginning of 2017 through today. It’s a sea change in our relationship and will prove powerful for Ecuador, for the United States, and for the region.
QUESTION: U.S. Secretary of State, thanks for coming. Thank you.
SECRETARY POMPEO: Thank you very much, ma’am.
QUESTION: Have a safe trip.
SECRETARY POMPEO: Thank you.
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LGCJ.:
