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April 15, 2019


US ECONOMICS



SPRING MEETING IMR - THE WORLD BANK GROUP



U.S. Department of the Treasury. 04/15/2019. Readouts from a Treasury Spokesperson of Secretary Mnuchin’s Bilateral Meetings at the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, DC

Brazilian Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes

 U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin met with Brazilian Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes on Thursday. Secretary Mnuchin and Minister Guedes reaffirmed the importance of the U.S.-Brazil economic relationship and cooperation on regional security issues, as well as their shared commitment to implementing pro-growth economic reforms.

Italian Minister of Economy and Finance Giovanni Tria

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin met Thursday with Italy’s Minister of Economy and Finance Giovanni Tria. The Secretary and Minister reaffirmed the continued significance of the longstanding relationship between the United States and Italy, and discussed the importance of strong economic and trade relations between the two nations. Secretary Mnuchin and Minister Tria also discussed ongoing security issues of mutual concern, foreign investment screening, Venezuela, and the need for consensus-based approaches to international tax.

Austrian Finance Minister Hartwig Löger

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin met Friday with Hartwig Löger, Austria’s Minister of Finance. The Secretary and Minister reaffirmed the continued significance of the longstanding relationship between the United States and Austria, and discussed the importance of strong economic and trade relations between the two nations. Secretary Mnuchin and Minister Löger also discussed economic developments in the euro area and international tax issues.

United Kingdom Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin met Friday with U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond. Secretary Mnuchin and Chancellor Hammond reaffirmed the longstanding special relationship between the United States and United Kingdom, as well as the importance of free, fair, and reciprocal trade. The Secretary and Chancellor also discussed recent developments pertaining to Brexit, as well as recent security issues of mutual concern.

Swiss President and Finance Minister Ueli Maurer

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin met Saturday with Swiss President and Finance Minister Ueli Maurer. The Secretary and Minister reaffirmed the continued significance of the longstanding relationship between the United States and Switzerland, and discussed the importance of strong economic and trade relations between the two nations. Secretary Mnuchin and President Maurer also discussed ongoing security issues of mutual concern.



LATIN AMERICA / VENEZUELA



U.S. Department of State. April 15, 2019. Remarks to the Press. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State. Dallas, Texas

SECRETARY POMPEO: How are you all today?

QUESTION: Thank you, sir. I’m good.

SECRETARY POMPEO: ...

...

I’ve spent the previous days in South America – Chile, Peru, and Paraguay, and then last night in Cucuta, Colombia, with President Duque, where we talked not only about Venezuela and the importance of Nicolas Maduro leaving Venezuela, but about the opportunity there is between the United States and South America. We now have democratic nations with free and open markets who are prepared to compete and participate in our economy, in our – and the United States in their economy. So we talked about the relationships not only how we’re going to work together to restore democracy and the fundamental rights of the people in Venezuela, but how our countries can work together on a broader range of issues.

...

MS MARTIN: Dallas Morning News, do you have one?

QUESTION: Sure. You just came back from discussing Venezuela. We have a growing population of Venezuelan expatriates here in Texas. Is there any pressure from the opposition groups in Venezuela to maybe extend TPS to the Venezuelans here or do anything for the ones who are – they kind of – it’s been a mix of people now leaving Venezuela the past few years. Is there any pressure on the U.S. Government from them to do something for the people already here?

SECRETARY POMPEO: The opposition groups are very focused on one thing: Making sure that Nicolas Maduro doesn’t continue to wreak enormous havoc. I was there yesterday. I saw the human suffering that is taking place – thousands of people crossing from Venezuela. Now it’s a million-five in Colombia and three quarters of a million in Peru. These people are suffering tremendously. They – literally, they’re coming across the border to try and work a job, make a couple of dollars, buy some diapers and some food for their baby so that they can eat every other day, every other day. This is the Maduro regime’s legacy and it needs to end. That’s what the opposition forces are focused on. That’s what I hear them talk about when we communicate with them.

...

U.S. Department of State. April 15, 2019. Fact Sheets. Nicolas Maduro: Corruption and Chaos in Venezuela. Washington, DC

“Maduro usurped power; he’s not the duly elected president. Juan Guaido is the person that the Venezuelan people chose. America and now 54 other nations simply have ratified that, have said, ‘Yep, we recognize that’s what Venezuelans want.’”
 – U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, March 19, 2019.

Venezuela’s former regime, led by Nicolas Maduro, has consistently violated the human rights and dignity of its citizens, plundered the country’s natural resources, and driven a once prosperous nation into economic ruin with his authoritarian rule and socialist economic policies. Maduro’s thugs have engaged in extra-judicial killings and torture, taken political prisoners, and severely restricted freedom of speech, all in a brutal effort to retain power.

MADURO’S UNCONSTITUTIONAL ACTS:

  • In 2015, pro-democracy opposition parties resoundingly defeated the Maduro regime in legislative elections. Shortly thereafter, Maduro began dismantling various branches of government. Lame-duck National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello rushed to stack the country’s courts with unqualified party hacks to serve as Maduro’s guarantors of power.
  • On January 11, 2016, when the National Assembly proceeded to seat three legitimately elected deputies, the Supreme Court declared the National Assembly in contempt, rendering all subsequent legislation approved by this democratically elected body null and void. Maduro has deliberately sidelined this constitutionally legitimate Assembly ever since.
  • Maduro’s National Electoral Council (CNE) cronies oversee the conduct of all elections and declare the winners. Since 2015, they have tilted the playing field to ensure that Maduro can’t lose. They have disqualified every major opposition party and most opposition candidates since 2017.
  • In 2017, acting on Maduro’s orders, the CNE organized widely contested elections for the National Constituent Assembly, whose primary objective was to draft a new constitution. Instead, Maduro used the Assembly to usurp the powers of the legitimate National Assembly, ratify his orders, and enact laws, many of which vilify and disparage opposition figures and their policy proposals.
  • This sham electoral system culminated in the May 20, 2018 presidential elections. With most opposition figures arrested, exiled, or banned from running, Maduro faced a weakened field of candidates in a rigged election. To drive pro-Maduro turnout, the regime bribed voters with desperately needed food and other subsidies in exchange for their votes.
  • On January 10, 2019, Maduro unlawfully assumed the presidency at a ceremony deemed illegitimate by many Venezuelans and more than 50 countries, including most of Venezuela’s neighbors and the majority of the European Union.

In this context, Juan Guaido, elected on January 5, 2019, as President of the National Assembly, the only remaining democratically elected and legitimate institution in the country, invoked relevant articles of the Venezuelan constitution and became Venezuela’s Interim President.

MADURO’S CORRUPTION:

  • Maduro’s most egregious corruption scheme involved embezzlement from the state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PdVSA). In 2015, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) issued a finding under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act. A European bank accepted exorbitant commissions to process approximately $2 billion in transactions related to Venezuelan third–party money launderers, shell companies, and complex financial products to siphon off funds from PdVSA.
  • In 2018, a $1.2 billion money-laundering scheme involving Matthias Krull, a German national and Panamanian resident, and Gustavo Adolfo Hernandez, a Colombian national and naturalized U.S. citizen, exploited PdVSA and took advantage of the corruption in Venezuela’s foreign currency exchange systems by trading U.S. dollars for Venezuelan bolivars at market rate and then back again.
  • In 2016, Maduro declared approximately 12% of the country to be a part of an “Orinoco Mining Arc” and awarded himself broad authorities to oversee the exploitation of resources for personal gain. In 2017, the regime ejected legitimate foreign companies doing business and replaced them with unregulated miners who operate with the backing of senior Venezuelan military officers.
  • In 2017, after a seven month investigation, Venezuela’s National Assembly uncovered instances where the regime “spent” $42 for a box of food, which it then distributed in exchange for votes, at a time when the food items cost less than $13. Maduro’s inner circle kept the difference, which totaled more than $200 million dollars in at least one case.
  • Venezuela ranks 169 out of 180 countries on the Transparency International’s 2017 Corruption Perception Index.

MADURO’S HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS:


  • In October 2018, Caracas Councilman Fernando Alban traveled to New York to denounce the Maduro regime’s brutality on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Upon his return to Venezuela on October 5, Maduro’s secret police arrested him at the airport. He died in custody a few days later when he mysteriously fell from a 10th floor window of a maximum-security prison in Caracas.
  • Maduro has increasingly relied on the Special Action Force of the National Police (FAES) that he created in 2017 to carry out illegal raids and extrajudicial killings.
  • The FAES, comprised of 1,300 officers, stands accused of killing more than 100 people in low-income neighborhoods from June to December 2018. (January 26, 2019 NGO Provea report)
  • On March 20, 2019, according to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet, FAES executed 37 people in connection with illegal home invasion raids in January.
  • The regime has deployed the National Guard and civil militias known as colectivos to crack down on peaceful protestors. According to the National Assembly, the former regime is responsible for at least 40 protest-related deaths so far this year.
  • 175 protest-related detentions and 7 deaths reported on January 23, 2019 (NGO Foro Penal)
  • 1,255 persons detained since January 21, 2019 (NGO Foro Penal)
  • 864 prisoners of conscience, including 95 military members (NGO Foro Penal, as of 4/1/19)
  • On April 5, 2019, human rights NGO PROVEA announced the discovery of several clandestine detention centers, including three allegedly run by colectivos, police, state security forces, and intelligence agencies, where the former regime extralegally detained and abused Venezuelan citizens.
  • On April 4, 2019, police raided the home of National Assembly Deputy Roberto Alcala in an effort to prosecute him on trumped-up terrorism charges.
  • On March 21, 2019, Maduro’s police raided the home of Interim President Juan Guaido’s chief of staff Roberto Marrero, and arrested him. Maduro’s Cuban-supported intelligence agency, SEBIN, continues to detain him. SEBIN has a record of using cruel and inhumane treatment to coerce confessions.

U.S. Department of State. April 15, 2019. Fact Sheet. Secretary Pompeo Visit to Cucuta, Colombia, April 14, 2019. Washington, DC

“….We are desperately trying to get humanitarian assistance to the people of Venezuela. We are committed to helping Venezuela, the region, deny Maduro the opportunity to engage in this thuggish behavior that has been so harmful to ordinary Venezuelans. We’re determined to achieve this outcome, and we’re optimistic that we can get there.”
- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, March 22, 2019.

On April 14, Secretary Pompeo traveled to Cucuta, Colombia. During this visit, he met with organizations supporting Venezuelans fleeing the oppressive Maduro regime, and assessed the challenges of delivering humanitarian aid into Venezuela itself, given the regime’s closure of the Venezuela-Colombia border. The United States remains committed to supporting the people of Venezuela as they demand the restoration of their democracy.

  • The United States has responded to Interim President Juan Guaido’s request for immediate international humanitarian assistance. From February to March 2019, the United States pre-positioned approximately 208 metric tons of critical relief supplies in Cucuta to help the people of Venezuela.
  • U.S. military C-130 and C-17 cargo planes transported the relief supplies from Homestead Air Reserve Base in Florida to Cucuta, Colombia as part of the Trump Administration’s whole-of-government response to the Venezuelan crisis.
  • To date, with our partners in the Western Hemisphere, the United States has pre-positioned nearly 546 metric tons of assistance in Colombia, Brazil and Curacao to help tens of thousands of Venezuelans. The aid includes food, medical supplies, hygiene kits, nutrition products, and water purification and storage units.
  • This U.S.-provided aid is part of the $20 million of initial humanitarian assistance to the people inside of Venezuela as announced by Secretary Pompeo on January 24, 2019.
  • Since Fiscal Year 2017, the United States also has provided more than $256 million – including more than $213 million in humanitarian assistance and approximately $43 million in development and economic assistance – to complement the efforts of host countries in the region to meet the humanitarian needs of Venezuelan refugees.
  • Interim President Juan Guaido and Venezuela’s National Assembly are prioritizing the need for large-scale, impartial humanitarian assistance for vulnerable Venezuelans. The United States will continue to respond to this request and support the ongoing peaceful transition to democracy in Venezuela.

U.S. Department of State. April 14, 2019. Interview With Jorge Gil of EFE. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State. Cucuta, Colombia

QUESTION: Okay. Mr. Secretary, (inaudible) visit to the border, do you think that the fall of Nicolas Maduro is getting closer? And what do you think about what you saw on the Simon Bolivar Bridge?

SECRETARY POMPEO: So it was really quite something today to see. We visited one of the migration centers, got to talk to some of the children, some of the families that fled the horrible conditions that had been imposed on them by Maduro and his military thugs. It was really quite something to get a chance to talk to them, hear what their lives were like before and then how bad they’ve gotten under Maduro.

To your first question, yes, I think every minute, every hour, is one step closer to Maduro leaving. All the Venezuelan people want is democracy restored and a chance to live, to work, to be with their families, and Maduro is denying them that. The Russians are no help. The Cubans are worse. I hope, hope, there’ll be a change here soon.

QUESTION: Okay. You talk about Russia and – well, does the USA have a plan to – against the growing presence of Russia in Venezuela, and Cuba, of course? And is Washington worried about – about that Russian presence?

SECRETARY POMPEO: The Russians are responsible for allowing Maduro to stay in power, the Cubans even more so. They’ve been in there longer; they’re more deeply committed. How the Cuban Government can watch the faces of these people, to watch their starvation when there’s food in the building in which we’re sitting; to see the kids not get medicine, vaccines, when there’s medicine sitting right here in this building; how the Cubans and the Russians permit that to happen is beyond me just as a human being, and the United States is committed to restoring democracy in Venezuela.

QUESTION: Okay. Will the USA support (inaudible) to remove Maduro from power?

SECRETARY POMPEO: We’ve said all along those who behave well, those who land on the side of the right side of history, on the right side of freedom, they can be part of the government moving forward. Those who don’t, those who commit acts of aggression, those who commit violence, those who act in ways that are inconsistent with it, those who support Maduro to the end, will face a very different fate.

QUESTION: Okay. Well, I will like to know if the USA will sanction the Spanish-owned company Repsol for its – for making business in Venezuela.

SECRETARY POMPEO: We never get in front of announcing sanctions before we do them, and we have made very clear what is lawful and what is unlawful. And each day that goes by we are further tightening that set of restrictions, not only the political restrictions but economic restrictions as well.

QUESTION: Okay. Well, Secretary Mnuchin previewed today that the USA is working with other countries to create a fund with $10,000 million to help the next Venezuelan government. I will like to know which impact – which impact will have this fund in the fall of Maduro.

SECRETARY POMPEO: We are fully prepared for the day after, not only to provide the economic support that Secretary Mnuchin spoke of, but to help provide the infrastructure, the political infrastructure. We want freedom and fair elections. Juan Guaido is the interim president who wanted to lead the path forward to democracy so the Venezuelan people can have the basic freedoms that they so richly deserve. That’s the mission for the day after Maduro leaves.

QUESTION: Okay. Mr. Secretary, I will like to know how is the relationship with Colombia. President Trump has criticized twice this month President Duque for the drug war. What can you tell me about it?

SECRETARY POMPEO: I think you saw it today. I was with President Duque. The relationship is excellent. We have economic relationships, we have political relationships, we are working incredibly closely to restore democracy in Venezuela. We have been working for years to reduce coca production here in Colombia. President Duque is working on that as well. We want it to go faster. I think President Duque wants it to go faster as well, and we’re committed to doing what we can to support that.

QUESTION: Okay. Well, how do you think that the withdrawal of assistance to the countries of the Northern Triangle will contribute towards the flow of migrants to the USA?

SECRETARY POMPEO: Yeah, here’s what we know. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been provided to the Northern Triangle countries, and we have an enormous migration problem, people fleeing El Salvador, people fleeing Honduras, people fleeing Guatemala. What we’re trying to do is get those governments to take this seriously, to assist their people of their countries so they won’t have to make this long, dangerous trek across Mexico.

President Trump is committed to securing our southern border, and that effort in the Northern Triangle is to get them to do what those countries need to do to have not only the will, but to demonstrate that will, in closing down the capacity of their people to flee their countries.

QUESTION: Okay. Well, the U.S. Government has said that the safety crisis – the safety crisis in its southern border is caused by criminal bands, by drug dealers. So do you think that (inaudible) those migrant kids from their parents in order to fight that crisis?

SECRETARY POMPEO: We’re going to stop the flow across our southern border, period, full stop. President Trump’s made that – every country, every country, has the right to determine who comes into their country, and we have to stop the flow of drugs, and we have to stop the flow of migrants. You watch these people who are traversing Mexico. They’re being preyed upon by drug cartels inside of Mexico. This is morally wrong, and President Trump is determined to stop that.

QUESTION: Okay. Well, I will like to know the – what do you think about the thing that said yesterday the Cuban president, Miguel Diaz-Canel, who said yesterday that the USA pushed back to (inaudible) bilateral relations, and to the worst level. What do you think about that?

SECRETARY POMPEO: I didn’t see the quote.

QUESTION: Yeah. He said (inaudible) that the USA pushed back (inaudible) bilateral relations to the worst level. What do you think about that?

SECRETARY POMPEO: I don’t have anything to say about that. I’m not sure I understand what his point was.

QUESTION: Okay. Is the White House intensifying the blockade to come – to Cuba, as Havana government says?

SECRETARY POMPEO: We need the Cubans to stop supporting the murderous tyrant Nicolas Maduro. That’s our goal. That’s our objective. We’re going to use the tools that we have available to create incentives so that the Cubans will see, that the Cuban people will see, that it is not in their best interest to control Venezuela and to keep Nicolas Maduro in power. That’s our simple goal. That’s our mission.

QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. Secretary.

SECRETARY POMPEO: Great, thank you.

QUESTION: Thank you very much.

SECRETARY POMPEO: It’s wonderful to meet.

QUESTION: Nice meeting you.

U.S. Department of State. April 14, 2019. Interview With Sandra Ramirez of El Tiempo. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State. Cucuta, Colombia

QUESTION: (In progress) with President Duque, indeed, the first (inaudible) issue and the advancing that (inaudible) the United States. What do you (inaudible)?

SECRETARY POMPEO: We have a great relationship with Colombia. I think you saw that on full display today. It is absolutely the case that President Trump and the United States share President Duque’s goal of reducing coca production as quickly and as rapidly as can be done. That’s what the president was communicating. It’s important. It’s important to the United States. We need to do our part to reduce drug demand, but it’s important to the United States that coca production – not only here but in other places in South America – be reduced as quickly as possible.

We have deep economic relationships. We work closely, as you see today, on the issue of restoring democracy inside of Venezuela. You see that the United States has been enormously generous, providing tens and tens of millions of tons of food into the building in which we are sitting. The United States is committed to this objective, and our partnership with Colombia is strong.

QUESTION: Okay. Does Colombia have to worry about (inaudible) as partner of the United States in the fight against drugs?

SECRETARY POMPEO: Colombia needs to do all that it can, and I know President Duque is doing everything he can. He inherited a terrible problem, the growth of coca. So we’re going to do what we can to support President Duque’s efforts in this regard.

QUESTION: Okay. The United States have been increasing the economic and the diplomatic pressures so that Nicolas Maduro leaves power, but he refuses to do so. Is the strategy not working?

SECRETARY POMPEO: Every thug, every tyrant, remains in power until the moment that they do not. That pressure and the pressure on the regime is working. We’re closer today than we were yesterday. We’ll be closer again tomorrow. We’re going to continue to increase that pressure.

We’re working, too, to try to convince the Russians and the Chinese to stop their activity, which is boosting Maduro, giving Maduro more power, more capacity, and then the Cubans as well. The Cubans are largely providing the security for Nicolas Maduro. That’s morally wrong, and we hope that the Cubans will recognize that that’s not in their best interest, and we will do the things we need to do to make sure the Cubans understand that it’s not in their – it’s not in their best interest to continue to support Nicolas Maduro.

The progress that has been made to date is important, but as you can see from the people who are fleeing the country, the individuals who I had a chance to speak with today, the tragedy, the human suffering that has been imposed by the Russians and the Cubans and Nicolas Maduro, is truly tragic.

QUESTION: Tons of humanitarian aid are right here inside Colombia. It has been sent by the United States. It didn’t go through (inaudible) because it was not possible. (Inaudible) what is the United States going to do to make or to get it over?

SECRETARY POMPEO: We’re going to keep trying.

QUESTION: All right.

SECRETARY POMPEO: Look, we’ve done an enormous amount of work. Other countries, too, have joined in this effort. Colombia has been an incredible partner to host this food aid here. Other countries have been prepared to do that as well.

What needs to change is Nicolas Maduro needs to leave. When that leaves, the Venezuelan people will get the medicine they need for their sick kids. I saw some of them today. They’ll have the food for their starving children. I had a chance to see some of them today. We’re determined to create a better humanitarian condition not only for those fleeing but for everyone inside of Venezuela. The thing that has to happen is Maduro must go.

QUESTION: One of the techniques that Mr. Maduro has been using to undermine the (inaudible) opposition in Venezuela is wear them down. What is the United States going to --

SECRETARY POMPEO: Yeah, it’ll be Maduro that’s worn down. Nicolas Maduro is being worn down. We are – Maduro is not winning this fight. Don’t let anybody fool you. Don’t let anybody fool the people of Colombia or Peru or Chile or the people of the United States, nor fool the Venezuelan people. The effort that the Lima Group will make tomorrow in Santiago, the good news out of the OAS this past week, these are all important diplomatic efforts that continue to tighten the screws on Maduro and his thugs.

QUESTION: (Inaudible) Mr. Guaido (inaudible) and it seems like if the possibility for (inaudible) close, would a decision that maybe accelerate the possibility of military intervention in Venezuela?

SECRETARY POMPEO: We’ve said all options are on the table. The arrest of Juan Guaido would be a major, major (inaudible) on behalf of Nicolas Maduro. We hope that he will not take that. We hope he won’t invoke violence. We hope he won’t arrest other senior leaders inside of Venezuela. Those are all things that I think the world would see as major steps in continuing to deny the Venezuelan people the rights that they deserve.

QUESTION: Vice President Pence asked this week at the United Nations that President Guaido was recognized as such, but China and Russia are supporting Nicolas Maduro. When or how soon is this recognition of Mr. Guaido going to happen?

SECRETARY POMPEO: You’ll have to ask the Chinese and the Russians.

QUESTION: All right. Okay. And the last question will be (inaudible) the fact that on the 23rd of February, the humanitarian aid didn’t make it to Venezuela, but now Maduro has agreed to get humanitarian aid from the international community if the Red Cross is bringing it into the country.

SECRETARY POMPEO: We want to make sure that people are fed and that sick children get medicine.

QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. Secretary.

SECRETARY POMPEO: Thank you.

U.S. Department of State. April 14, 2019. Joint Statement With Colombian President Ivan Duque. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State. Cucuta, Colombia

SECRETARY POMPEO: Good evening. It’s truly an honor to be here with you, President Duque. I want to commend your government and the people of Colombia for the support that you’ve offered to the Venezuelans in their true hour of need. The United States and freedom-loving nations around the world stand by you.

I also want to thank Interim President Juan Guaido and his ambassador to Colombia, Humberto Calderon, and his representative to the Lima Group, Julio Borges. The ambassador and Julio Borges were here today. Thank you for joining us.

And I want to thank all the people who made my visit possible. I want to thank the workers at the Migration Transition Assistance Center and here at Tienditas at the warehouse. It was today incredibly moving to walk on that bridge and to witness the important work that’s being done to address the enormous humanitarian crisis. It’s a special day, too, because this is Palm Sunday. To see the need, to see the hurt in these people’s eyes on this important day, was truly something.

To date, 3.4 million Venezuelans have fled their country. By the end of the year, that figure will exceed 5 million. They include people like I saw today. They include people like Geraldine, a Venezuelan mother who has crossed the border now roughly 20 times. She is torn; she is unwilling to abandon her family and friends, but also unable to provide for them in her home country. So Geraldine goes back and forth across the bridge, across the border. She leaves Venezuela seeking medicine for her children. She’s gone searching for simple items, items like medicine, like diapers, that which under normal circumstances in any normal country would be readily available, but she can no longer find them in Venezuela. She finds them here, here in Colombia, and she can count on community kitchens here in Colombia to provide meals for her and for her children every single time that she passes through.

Geraldine’s story, sadly, isn’t unique. We saw that today. Cucuta is just their first step for many. It’s a long journey for these Venezuelans. These caminantes travel hundreds of miles on foot in Colombia and throughout the region. And despite the risks that they face and the love they retain for Venezuela, they truly feel like they have no choice.

Their collective plight is why the United States since 2017 has provided $213 million in humanitarian assistance, and why just this past Wednesday Vice President Pence announced approximately $60 million in additional aid and assistance. This funding provides shelter, safe food and drinking water, protection against violence and exploitation, and access to work and education opportunities.

But actually getting this aid into Venezuela is a whole ‘nother story, because Nicolas Maduro refused to accept it. He refuses to allow this aid to get across. To paraphrase a president who faced similar circumstances: Mr. Maduro, open these bridges, open these borders. You can end this today. I hope that you care. I hope that you will care enough when you see the horror, when you see the tragedy, to change your ways and to leave your country.

Colombia and the United States want a better future for the Venezuelan people under the leadership of Interim President Guaido and the democratically elected National Assembly. There is a plan in place for free and fair elections inside of Venezuela and for a return to private sector-led growth, for a restoration of normal life and economic opportunity and prosperity inside of Venezuela.

But before these things happen, Maduro’s usurpation must end. All Venezuelans and the world should reject the illegitimate authoritarian rule imposed on the Venezuelan people, including the Venezuelan military leadership. The United States will continue to utilize every economic and political means at our disposal to help the Venezuelan people. Using sanctions, visa revocations, and other means, we pledge to hold the regime and those propping it up accountable for their corruption and their repression of democracy.

We are deeply aware of the recent intimidation tactics used by the Maduro regime this past Thursday. Maduro should know we are watching, and our support will not waiver. Democratic actors in Venezuela will not be deterred. And as I said on this trip to the Chilean, Peruvian, and Paraguayan partners this week, we are grateful for the leadership of our South American friends and allies. They have shown tremendous energy to help ordinary Venezuelans who want nothing more than democracy and prosperity in their own country.

Thank you, President Duque, for your commitment to restoring democracy in Venezuela. And thank you, too, Mr. President, for your cooperation on regional issues like counternarcotics and regional security. The United States will continue to work with you to stem the problem of coca production that you inherited. We know what we must do, and the United States will do its part to reduce the demand for illegal drugs in our own country. But it’s also very important to acknowledge that our unique, important bilateral relationship goes far beyond fighting common foes. It can be seen only – this can be seen most clearly through the promotion of trade and trade agreements and economic contacts – commitments between our two nations.

Thank you, Mr. President, and thank you to the Colombian people for your friendship with the United States of America. Muchas gracias.

(Applause.)

PRESIDENT DUQUE: (Via interpreter) Thank you very much for your words, for your visit, for your friendship with Colombia. It has been a pleasure having you again in our country. I would like to express that there is one common cause of the countries of his hemisphere, the countries that gave life to the inter-American system, and it’s the defense, (inaudible) defense of democratic principles. That’s why in 2001 we all signed the Inter-American Democratic Charter so that our – in our region we would never again have the terrible consequences of dictatorship.

And what joins us, what unites us with the Venezuelan people, is many causes. One of them is defending democracy, re-establishing the full exercise of freedoms, and the constitutional reconstruction of that country. We are also united by a binational brotherhood, and as you can see, Secretary Pompeo, Colombia has received over a million migrants in our territory with fraternity, of course. They are fleeing from the brutal dictatorship, hungry, with diseases. And here, amidst our difficulties and amidst our fiscal restrictions, tax restrictions, we have been giving them our love and care and attention.

Today I want to celebrate that once again our commitment is ratified, the commitment between our countries, with your presence here today to do all necessary efforts to re-establish democracy, freedom, and institutional order in Venezuela. Today also we would like to express that what was achieved this week within the OAS is very important by accepting the representation of President Guaido, and tomorrow when a group meeting of the Lima Group is held we will again, once again, emphasize that all sanctions – political sanctions, economic sanctions, and diplomatic sanctions – must be used to isolate the dictatorship and to allow for transition in Venezuela.

I would like to tell you, Secretary Pompeo, that the cause has also been a very personal cause to me for over six years now. When I was senator of the republic, I submitted to congress what was back then a proposal to request the freedom of political prisoners. I then denounced Nicolas Maduro vis-a-vis the International Criminal Court with support of Chilean and Colombian senators. Today we have nine heads of states supporting our cause, and I also hope that a trial is opened against Nicolas Maduro so that he is convicted for the terrible crimes that he has committed.

There is a third element nonetheless, which is humanitarian aid. Colombia told the world that we are willing to receive humanitarian aid, to warehouse it and to provide logistics, and to allow for it to be transported to Venezuela by Venezuelan people who want to take this to their families. The past February the world was able to see the brutalities by the regime to avoid that such aid was able to save lives. And despite the fact that they tried to hinder this, what occurred was a moral and ethic defeat in the eyes of the world. And this allows us all to continue with this task because it’s a moral duty to re-establish democracy in Venezuela.

Your presence here ratifies the commitment of the countries that share this vision, and I also would like to express, Mr. Secretary, that Colombia and the United States have had a long-lasting relationship, a relationship in which there are many topics that bring us together. And without any doubt, the fight against terrorism, the fight against narcotics, has always been present there. You know that between 2012 and the moment in which I took over, we saw an exponential growth of illegal crops, of less than 60,000 hectares to over 200,000 hectares.

In addition, the Colombian people elected me to tackle that phenomenon, and since August 7 and to date we have done nothing but tackle this cause, because it’s our moral duty and our commitment with the Colombian people, but it is also a shared work, as you have very well said. And we hope to continue working hand-in-hand to dismantle all these cartels that affect the populations of our countries.

I also believe, Mr. Secretary, that the tasks ahead in that front are many, but we must continue building based on trust this joint effort, because that’s what this is about. From the side of demand, from the side of supply, from the side of cartels and money laundering, both countries produce the results required because it is a common threat. It is also important to say that our country’s agenda goes beyond facing common enemies. It is based on our values. We have a commercial agenda. We have a science and technology agenda, entrepreneurship, culture, energy, which is very broad, and we ratified that today also with your visit, Mr. Secretary.

Today we are giving a clear message to the Venezuelan people: We are with you to defeat dictatorship. We are with you for you to recover your freedom. And we also want to convey a message to the Colombian people, and the message is that the United States and Colombia in this joint effort and this effort of co-responsibility will continue working to defeat narcotics, terrorism. And we also tell the Colombian people that our duty is to continue strengthening this relationship in a more innovative agenda of trade strategies in the agrarian sector of supporting production chains, and today with your presence this is very evident. Thank you very much. Mr. Secretary.

(Applause.)

U.S. Department of State. April 14, 2019. Interview With Christina Ruffini of CBS. Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State. Cucuta, Colombia

QUESTION: On the bridge as we were walking out, there were people shouting, “Liberty,” and “Maduro must go.” And with the help of Mark, my fabulous bilingual cameraman, I asked them what they wanted from the United States. And they said, “Intervention.”

My question is: I understand you said that all options are on the table, but has the State Department asked the Pentagon to prepare any kind of indirect military intervention to put additional pressure on Maduro, things like joint military exercises with the Colombians or with the Brazilians, or maybe putting pressure on Russia in another venue, the Mediterranean, to try to get them, as you say, to get out of Venezuela?

SECRETARY POMPEO: So it’s remarkable to be here in this place where the Venezuelans are – you can see them as you drove in today, thousands of Venezuelans every day fleeing Nicolas Maduro. I’m not going to talk about discussions that are happening inside the United States Government. We’ve made clear that all options are on the table. And you watched; you watched the political and diplomatic noose tighten around Maduro’s neck. We will begin to do the same thing. The Cubans must understand, too, that there will be a cost associated with their continued support of Nicolas Maduro, and we’re going to have that same conversation with the Russians as well.

QUESTION: Are you considering those kinds of non-direct intervention measures?

SECRETARY POMPEO: I never talk about things that we’re working on.

QUESTION: What would you say to the people who were asking the U.S. for intervention on the bridge?

SECRETARY POMPEO: Oh, I’d say several things. First, you can see (inaudible) this warehouse filled with taxpayer – U.S. taxpayer-supported food and medicine. We’re here to help them. We’re here to provide the humanitarian assistance that they need. We were in the shelters today. We saw children that were sick. We saw families that were eating only every other day.

This is a tragedy foisted upon them by their leader in Venezuela, by Nicolas Maduro. The United States is committed to continuing to restore democracy and to try as best we can to get food to the starving and medicine to those kids that are sick. It was truly something to see these families that have been displaced. They want to go back to Venezuela. They want to go back home. But today, the Cubans and Nicolas Maduro are preventing them from doing that.

QUESTION: You’ve spoken very passionately throughout our trip about the generosity of countries taking in Venezuelan migrants and the treatment and how much they have welcomed them. But as you know and as we’ve talked about, the U.S. is facing its own immigration crisis at the border, and I’m wondering if you really don’t see any kind of disconnect or inconsistency with the way the administration treats different groups of displaced desperate people, because I would imagine if you went to the southern border, a lot of people would have similar stories as to the ones you heard today.

SECRETARY POMPEO: There is nothing like what’s taking place at the hands of Nicolas Maduro anywhere in Central or South America. To compare the two is ludicrous. Nicolas Maduro is denying food that’s sitting here. These aren’t people that are starving because the country doesn’t have wealth. These are people that are starving because the political leadership, the military thugs inside of Venezuela, have destroyed their capacity to produce crude oil, they have destroyed the capacity to grow crops, they have denied their people aid that is sitting right at the border. You saw the bridge today – welded trucks preventing food from getting in. This is horrific. There is nothing else in South America that compares to this. This is the largest movement of migrants in the history of the world absent war. This is at the hands of Nicolas Maduro and no one else, and to compare it to situations anywhere else I think just belies any true knowledge of the facts on the ground.

QUESTION: But if President Duque said to these people because it’s such a strain on their resources and as – as we’ve talked about throughout this trip, if he said, I’m sorry, we just can’t take you anymore and stopped them at the border, as we’ve been doing in Mexico, I don’t think you’d be okay with that policy.

SECRETARY POMPEO: We are trying in every instance to keep people capable of staying in their own country. That’s the common theme. We want these Venezuelans to return home. We want the people in the Northern Triangle to be able to live in their own countries as well. Every nation, every nation, has the right to make decisions about who comes in and out of their country. President Duque today wants these people to have food and shelter. But when Maduro falls, he wants them to go home. That’s the same thing that we’re trying to do along our southern border. We want those people to have good lives in Guatemala and El Salvador and Honduras. We want that for the Venezuelan people that I saw today here, too.

QUESTION: Have you spoken to President Guaido recently? Where is President Guaido?

SECRETARY POMPEO: I haven’t spoken to him (inaudible).

QUESTION: Anything else you’d like to add? Thank you, sir.

SECRETARY POMPEO: No, I think that’s it. All right.



CAPITAL DATA



U.S. Department of the Treasury. 04/15/2019. Treasury International Capital Data for February

Washington – The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for February 2019.  The next release, which will report on data for March 2019, is scheduled for May 15, 2019.

The sum total in February of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $21.6 billion.  Of this, net foreign private outflows were $11.5 billion, and net foreign official outflows were $10.2 billion.

Foreign residents increased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in February; net purchases were $42.4 billion.  Net purchases by private foreign investors were $52.8 billion, while net sales by foreign official institutions were $10.4 billion.

U.S. residents decreased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, with net sales of $9.5 billion.

Taking into account transactions in both foreign and U.S. securities, net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $51.9 billion.  After including adjustments, such as estimates of unrecorded principal payments to foreigners on U.S. asset-backed securities, overall net foreign purchases of long-term securities are estimated to have been $33.1 billion in February.

Foreign residents increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bills by $6.6 billion.  Foreign resident holdings of all dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities and other custody liabilities decreased by $11.0 billion.

Banks’ own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents decreased by $43.7 billion.



   TIC Monthly Reports on Cross-Border Financial Flows
   (Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)
        12 Months Through    
      20172018Feb-18Feb-19NovDecJanFeb
  Foreigners' Acquisitions of Long-term Securities        
              
1  Gross Purchases of Domestic U.S. Securities31501.736563.532908.336922.13296.53103.03453.83198.6
2  Gross Sales of Domestic U.S. Securities31096.336409.632438.336865.33300.13194.53473.43156.2
3  Domestic Securities Purchased, net (line 1 less line 2) /1405.4153.9470.056.7-3.6-91.4-19.642.4
              
4   Private, net /2510.5254.6498.3208.125.1-68.6-6.452.8
5    Treasury Bonds & Notes, net169.3181.1172.2192.220.1-52.512.336.4
6    Gov't Agency Bonds, net93.0140.297.5140.714.413.010.113.1
7    Corporate Bonds, net129.856.1116.271.9-4.4-10.03.112.2
8    Equities, net118.3-122.8112.5-196.8-4.9-19.1-31.9-9.0
              
9   Official, net /3-105.1-100.7-28.4-151.3-28.6-22.8-13.1-10.4
10    Treasury Bonds & Notes, net-149.4-179.5-80.0-234.1-33.3-24.8-24.3-16.5
11    Gov't Agency Bonds, net42.089.946.6100.55.22.012.99.4
12    Corporate Bonds, net1.7-4.14.3-9.30.2-0.8-2.4-1.6
13    Equities, net0.5-7.00.7-8.4-0.70.80.7-1.7
              
14  Gross Purchases of Foreign Securities from U.S. Residents13711.017128.214662.817217.51550.21240.11540.81366.8
15  Gross Sales of Foreign Securities to U.S. Residents13584.116759.514559.516817.41514.71197.01528.51357.3
16  Foreign Securities Purchased, net (line 14 less line 15) /4126.9368.7103.3400.135.543.112.39.5
              
17    Foreign Bonds Purchased, net233.2324.8211.3341.826.331.120.71.1
18    Foreign Equities Purchased, net-106.343.9-107.958.39.311.9-8.48.3
              
19  Net Long-term Securities Transactions (line 3 plus line 16):532.3522.6573.3456.832.0-48.4-7.251.9
              
20  Other Acquisitions of Long-term Securities, net /5-224.9-112.4-196.9-115.2-12.9-12.7-12.3-18.8
              
21 Net Foreign Acquisition of Long-term Securities        
     (lines 19 and 20):307.4410.2376.3341.619.0-61.1-19.533.1
              
22 Increase in Foreign Holdings of Dollar-denominated Short-term        
     U.S. Securities and Other Custody Liabilities: /6190.2419.7263.1329.131.415.5-12.2-11.0
23  U.S. Treasury Bills34.342.671.012.419.82.1-12.56.6
24   Private, net14.749.538.731.014.73.5-7.2-3.6
25   Official, net19.5-6.832.3-18.65.2-1.4-5.310.2
26  Other Negotiable Instruments        
     and Selected Other Liabilities: /7155.9377.0192.1316.711.513.50.2-17.7
27   Private, net154.9381.0194.5320.512.015.7-1.1-17.3
28   Official, net1.0-4.0-2.4-3.8-0.4-2.31.4-0.4
              
29 Change in Banks' Own Net Dollar-denominated Liabilities80.2-109.9-30.7-284.4-18.3-62.4-111.9-43.7
              
30Monthly Net TIC Flows (lines 21,22,29) /8577.7720.0608.7386.432.1-107.9-143.7-21.6
  of which         
31  Private, net758.7875.0703.3618.551.7-77.1-123.7-11.5
32  Official, net-181.0-155.0-94.6-232.2-19.6-30.8-20.0-10.2
              
              
/1  Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities (+)        
/2  Includes international and regional organizations        
/3  The reported division of net purchases of long-term securities between net purchases by foreign official institutions and net purchases
    of other foreign investors is subject to a "transaction bias" described in Frequently Asked Questions 7 and 10.a.4 on the TIC website.
/4



________________



INDICADORES/INDICATORS




________________




BACEN. BOLETIM FOCUS: RELATÓRIO SEMANAL DE MERCADO
(Projeções atualizadas semanalmente pelas 100 principais instituições financeiras que operam no Brasil, para os principais indicadores da economia brasileira)



ANÁLISE



BACEN. PORTAL G1. 15/04/2019. Mercado baixa de novo estimativa de alta do PIB e volta a prever inflação acima de 4% para 2019. Na sétima queda seguida, previsão de alta do PIB recuou de 1,97% para 1,95% neste ano. Estimativa de inflação para 2019 subiu de 3,90% para 4,06%.
Por Alexandro Martello, G1 — Brasília

Os analistas das instituições financeiras baixaram, pela sétima vez seguida, a estimativa para o crescimento da economia neste ano e também voltaram a prever que a inflação ficará acima da marca dos 4% em 2019.

As previsões constam no boletim de mercado, também conhecido como relatório "Focus", divulgado nesta segunda-feira (15) pelo Banco Central (BC). O relatório é resultado de levantamento feito na semana passada com mais de 100 instituições financeiras.

Para 2019, os economistas do mercado financeiro elevaram a expectativa de inflação de 3,90% para 4,06%. Foi o segundo aumento seguido do indicador. A meta central deste ano é de 4,25%, e o intervalo de tolerância do sistema de metas varia de 2,75% a 5,75%.

Com a alta, a previsão do mercado financeiro para o IPCA deste ano voltou a superar a marca dos 4% - algo que não acontecia desde o início de fevereiro deste ano.

VEJA A PREVISÃO DO MERCADO FINANCEIRO PARA O IPCA DE 2019
INDICADOR ESTAVA ABAIXO DE 4% DESDE O INÍCIO DE FEVEREIRO
25/05/201824/09/201803/12/201802/01/201901/02/201901/03/201905/04/201812/04/20193,83,944,14,24,3

01/02/2019
● : 3,94
Fonte: FOCUS - BANCO CENTRAL

O aumento aconteceu após a divulgação do IPCA de março, que veio mais alto, acima da previsão dos economistas do mercado. A inflação somou 0,75% no mês passado, a maior taxa para março desde 2015.

A meta de inflação é fixada pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN). Para alcançá-la, o Banco Central eleva ou reduz a taxa básica de juros da economia (Selic).

Para 2020, o mercado financeiro manteve em 4% a estimativa de inflação – em linha com a meta central, de 4% para o próximo ano. No ano que vem, a meta terá sido oficialmente cumprida se a inflação oscilar entre 2,5% e 5,5%.

Produto Interno Bruto

Para o crescimento do PIB deste ano, a previsão do mercado financeiro recuou de 1,97% para 1,95% na semana passada. Foi a sétima queda seguida do indicador.

O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país e serve para medir a evolução da economia.

Na semana passada, o próprio Banco Central estimou uma expansão de 2% para a economia brasileira neste ano. Na última revisão do orçamento deste ano, o Ministério da Economia projetou um crescimento de 2,2% para 2019.

O início das revisões para baixo na expectativa de crescimento do mercado financeiro para o PIB deste ano começou após a divulgação do resultado do ano passado – quando a economia avançou 1,1%.

Para o ano que vem, a expectativa do mercado financeiro para expansão da economia recuou de 2,70% para 2,58%. Nesse caso, foi a quarta queda seguida do indicador.

Os economistas dos bancos não alteraram a previsão de expansão da economia para 2021 e para 2022 – que continuou em 2,5% para os dois anos.

Outras estimativas

  • Taxa de juros - O mercado manteve em 6,5% ao ano a previsão para a taxa Selic no fim de 2019. Atualmente, o juro básico da economia está neste patamar. Com isso, o mercado segue prevendo juros estáveis neste ano. Para o fim de 2020, a previsão continuou em 7,5% ao ano. Deste modo, os analistas continuam prevendo alta dos juros no ano que vem.
  • Dólar - A projeção do mercado financeiro para a taxa de câmbio no fim de 2019 permaneceu estável em R$ 3,70 por dólar. Para o fechamento de 2020, subiu de R$ 3,75 para R$ 3,78 por dólar.
  • Balança comercial - Para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção em 2019 recuou de US$ 50,28 bilhões para US$ 50,14 bilhões de resultado positivo. Para o ano que vem, a estimativa dos especialistas do mercado para o superávit permaneceu estável em US$ 46 bilhões.
  • Investimento estrangeiro - A previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil, em 2019, subiu de US$ 81,89 bilhões para US$ 82 bilhões. Para 2020, a estimativa dos analistas avançou de US$ 83,38 bilhões para US$ 84,36 bilhões.



__________________



ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRAZIL ECONOMICS



PIB



BACEN. 15 Abril 2019. BC divulga o Índice de Atividade Econômica do Banco Central (IBC-Br) referente ao mês de fevereiro de 2019.

DOCUMENTO: https://www.bcb.gov.br/detalhenoticia/16728/nota

BACEN. PORTAL G1. 15/04/2019. Prévia do PIB mostra que em fevereiro economia teve maior recuo desde a greve dos caminhoneiros. Prévia do PIB do Banco Central, IBR-Br registrou queda de 0,73% em fevereiro, maior recuo mensal desde maio de 2018, quando recuou 3,11% por conta da greve dos caminhoneiros.
Por Alexandro Martello, G1 — Brasília

Em fevereiro, o nível de atividade da economia brasileira registrou a maior retração desde maio de 2018, quando ocorreu a greve dos caminhoneiros, indicam números divulgados nesta segunda-feira (15) pelo Banco Central.

O chamado Índice de Atividade Econômica do BC (IBC-Br) – considerado uma "prévia" do resultado do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) – registrou em fevereiro um recuo de 0,73%, na comparação com janeiro deste ano. O resultado foi calculado após ajuste sazonal (uma espécie de "compensação" para comparar períodos diferentes).

O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país e serve para medir a evolução da economia.

Nesta comparação, fevereiro registrou o maior recuo mensal dos últimos nove meses. Maio de 2018 foi marcado pelos efeitos da greve dos caminhoneiros, que resultou em um tombo da prévia do PIB de 3,11%.

PRÉVIA DO PIB DO BANCO CENTRAL (IBC-Br)
COMPARAÇÃO COM O MÊS ANTERIOR, COM AJUSTE SAZONAL
0,620,62-3,11-3,113,163,160,330,330,430,43-0,14-0,14-0,09-0,090,270,270,090,09-0,31-0,31-0,73-0,73ABR/18MAI/18JUN/18JUL/18AGO/18SET/18OUT/18NOV/18DEZ/18JAN/19FEV/19-4-2024
Fonte: BANCO CENTRAL

No entanto, quando o Banco Central comparou fevereiro deste ano com o mesmo mês de 2018 identificou uma alta de 2,49% no indicador (indicador sem ajuste sazonal, pois considera períodos iguais).

No acumulado do primeiro bimestre deste ano, ainda de acordo com números do Banco Central, ocorreu uma expansão de 1,66% e, em 12 meses até fevereiro, houve uma alta de 1,21% na "prévia" do PIB.

Em 2018, o PIB teve uma expansão de 1,1%. O desempenho da economia brasileira no ano foi decepcionante diante das expectativas iniciais, repetindo o avanço registrado em 2017.

Para este ano, o mercado financeiro estima uma expansão do PIB de 1,95%, segundo pesquisa feita pelo Banco Central com mais de 100 instituições financeiras na semana passada.

PIB X IBC-Br

O IBC-Br foi criado para tentar antecipar o resultado do PIB, que é divulgado pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Os resultados do IBC-Br, porém, nem sempre mostraram proximidade com os dados oficiais do PIB.

A metodologia de cálculo dos dois índices é um pouco diferente. O IBC-BR, por exemplo, incorpora estimativas para agropecuária, indústria e setor de serviços, além dos impostos.

O IBC-Br é uma das ferramentas usadas pelo Banco Central para definir a taxa básica de juros do país. Com o menor crescimento da economia, teoricamente, haveria menos pressão inflacionária.

Definição dos juros básicos da economia

O IBC-Br também ajuda o Banco Central na definição dos juros básicos da economia. Atualmente, a taxa Selic está em 6,5% ao ano, na mínima histórica, e a estimativa do mercado é de que permaneça neste patamar até o fim do ano.

Pelo sistema que vigora no Brasil, o BC precisa ajustar os juros para atingir as metas pré-estabelecidas de inflação. Quanto maiores as taxas, menos pessoas e empresas ficam dispostas a consumir, o que tende a fazer com que os preços baixem ou fiquem estáveis.

Para 2019, a meta central de inflação definida pelo Banco Central é de 4,25%, com um intervalo de tolerância de 1,5 ponto percentual para mais ou para menos. Considerado o índice de inflação oficial do país, o IPCA calculado pelo IBGE pode ficar entre 2,75% e 5,75%, sem que a meta seja formalmente descumprida.

BACEN. REUTERS. 15 DE ABRIL DE 2019. Atividade econômica do Brasil tem em fevereiro maior contração em 9 meses, indica BC

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - O ritmo fraco da economia brasileira estendeu-se para fevereiro com a maior contração em nove meses, segundo dados do Banco Central divulgados nesta segunda-feira, ampliando as projeções de uma queda no primeiro trimestre e corroborando as preocupações com as perspectivas de crescimento do país.

O Índice de Atividade Econômica do Banco Central (IBC-Br), espécie de sinalizador do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), teve recuo de 0,73 por cento em fevereiro na comparação com o mês anterior, segundo dado dessazonalizado divulgado pelo BC.

O resultado mensal foi o segundo negativo após recuo de 0,31 por cento em janeiro, em dado revisado pelo BC depois de divulgar contração de 0,41 por cento. E é também a pior leitura para o indicador desde a queda de 3,1 por cento vista em maio de 2018.

“Indicadores de atividade econômica conhecidos até o momento seguem sugerindo uma leve queda de 0,1 pro cento do PIB no primeiro trimestre deste ano”, afirmou o Bradesco em nota.

Na comparação com fevereiro de 2018, o IBC-Br apresentou crescimento de 2,49 por cento e, no acumulado em 12 meses, teve alta de 1,21 por cento, segundo números observados.

Em fevereiro, a produção industrial do Brasil mostrou alguma recuperação ao avançar 0,7 por cento sobre o mês anterior, devolvendo as perdas vistas em janeiro.

Entretanto, as vendas no varejo ficaram estáveis no mês, com as compras voltadas para o Carnaval compensando perdas em supermercados e combustíveis. E o volume de serviços recuou 0,4 por cento em fevereiro, na segunda queda seguida.

O cenário permanece sendo de lentidão da economia e mercado de trabalho fraco, com cerca de 13 milhões de desempregados no país, ainda que a inflação e taxa de juros baixas proporcionem alguma expectativa de melhora do consumo.

As expectativas de crescimento para o Brasil vêm sofrendo sucessivas reduções. A mais recente pesquisa Focus realizada semanalmente pelo BC junto a uma centena de economistas mostra que a expectativa para a atividade neste ano é de crescimento de 1,95 por cento, indo a 2,58 por cento em 2020.

Na semana passada, o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) reduziu a estimativa de expansão da economia brasileira em 2019 a 2,1 por cento, citando a necessidade de cortes de gastos com funcionalismo público e da reforma da Previdência para conter as crescentes despesas.

Por Camila Moreira



INFLAÇÃO



FGV. IBRE. 15/04/19. Índices Gerais de Preços. IGP-10. IGP-10 varia 1,00% em abril

O Índice Geral de Preços – 10 (IGP-10) subiu 1,00% em abril, após alta de 1,40% em março. Com este resultado, o índice acumula alta de 2,55% no ano e de 8,46% em 12 meses. Em abril de 2018, o índice havia registrado elevação de 0,56% no mês e de 1,31% em 12 meses.

O Índice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo (IPA) variou de 1,93% em março para 1,19% em abril. Na análise por estágios de processamento, os preços dos Bens Finais subiram 1,48% em abril, após alta de 1,97% em março. A principal contribuição para este resultado partiu do subgrupo alimentos in natura, cuja taxa passou de 19,90% para 4,73%. O índice relativo a Bens Finais (ex), que exclui os subgrupos alimentos in natura e combustíveis para o consumo, subiu 0,53% em abril. No mês anterior, a taxa foi de -0,06%.

A taxa do grupo Bens Intermediários passou de 0,54% em março para 0,62% em abril. A principal contribuição para o avanço da taxa do grupo partiu do subgrupo materiais e componentes para a manufatura, cuja taxa passou de -0,31% para 0,26%. O índice de Bens Intermediários (ex), obtido após a exclusão do subgrupo combustíveis e lubrificantes para a produção, subiu 0,29% em abril, ante -0,28% no mês anterior.

O índice do grupo Matérias-Primas Brutas variou 1,53% em abril, após alta de 3,60% em março. A contribuição para este movimento partiu dos seguintes itens: minério de ferro (8,05% para 1,83%), milho (em grão) (4,52% para -2,12%) e laranja (13,11% para -1,55%). Em sentido ascendente, os movimentos mais relevantes ocorreram nos itens cana-de-açúcar (-0,10% para 1,32%), bovinos (0,67% para 1,45%) e algodão (em caroço) (1,65% para 4,90%).

O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) subiu 0,73% em abril. Em março, o índice havia sido de 0,48%. Sete das oito classes de despesa componentes do índice registraram avanços em suas taxas de variação, com destaque para o grupo Transportes, cuja taxa passou de 0,44% para 1,33%. Nesta classe de despesa, vale citar o comportamento do item gasolina, que registrou taxa de 3,15% em abril, após queda de 0,36% em março.

Também apresentaram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação os grupos Vestuário (0,13% para 0,76%), Habitação (0,35% para 0,49%), Educação, Leitura e Recreação (-0,11% para 0,17%), Despesas Diversas (-0,05% para 0,26%), Comunicação (-0,02% para 0,11%) e Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,47% para 0,48%). As contribuições para estes movimentos partiram dos seguintes itens: roupas (0,22% para 0,91%), tarifa de eletricidade residencial (0,79% para 1,75%), passagem aérea (-5,20% para -2,87%), bilhete lotérico (0,00% para 10,75%), pacotes de telefonia fixa e internet (0,00% para 0,93%) e medicamentos em geral (0,13% para 0,58%).

Em contrapartida, o grupo Alimentação (1,05% para 1,04%) apresentou decréscimo em sua taxa de variação. Nesta classe de despesa, a maior contribuição partiu do item arroz e feijão, cuja taxa passou de 10,82% para 3,80%.

O Índice Nacional de Custo da Construção (INCC) subiu 0,35% em abril, após elevação de 0,07% em março. Os três grupos componentes do INCC registraram as seguintes variações na passagem de março para abril: Materiais e Equipamentos (0,03% para 0,60%), Serviços (0,49% para 0,48%) e Mão de Obra (0,02% para 0,15%).

DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/navegacao-superior/noticias/noticias-1469.htm



COMÉRCIO EXTERIOR BRASILEIRO



MAPA. 12/04/2019. Balança comercial. Participação do agronegócio nas exportações brasileiras cresce 1,5% em março. Valor da exportações diminui 5,3% em comparação com o mesmo mês de 2018. Houve redução de preços dos produtos vendidos pelo Brasil. Soja continua liderando as exportações do agro brasileiro

No mês de março, as exportações do agronegócio somaram US$ 8,64 bilhões, valor 5,3% inferior aos US$ 9,12 bilhões exportados em março de 2018. A queda do valor exportado ocorreu em função, principalmente, da queda dos preços internacionais dos produtos exportados pelo Brasil. O índice de preço dos produtos exportados pelo agronegócio teve redução de 6,4%, porcentagem que foi em parte compensada pela elevação de 1,2% no volume das exportações.

A participação dos produtos do agronegócio nas exportações brasileiras, teve elevação de 1,5 ponto percentual, chegando a 47,6% de participação. O aumento da participação ocorreu apesar da queda de 5,3% nas vendas externas dos produtos do agronegócio, pois as exportações dos demais produtos apresentaram queda superior, de 14,2%.

As importações de produtos do agronegócio também tiveram redução no mês, passando de US$ 1,29 bilhão em março de 2018 para US$ 1,14 bilhão em março de 2019 (-11,9%).

Os cinco principais segmentos exportadores do agronegócio brasileiro foram: complexo soja (US$ 3,98 bilhões; 46,0% do valor exportado); carnes (US$ 1,23 bilhão; 14,3% do valor exportado); produtos florestais (US$ 1,10 bilhão; 12,7% do valor exportado); café (US$ 467,39 milhões; 5,4% do valor exportado); complexo sucroalcooleiro (US$ 392,70 milhões; 4,5% do valor exportado).

A participação desses cinco principais segmentos foi de 83% do valor total exportado pelo agronegócio brasileiro em março. No mesmo mês do ano anterior, as exportações desses setores tiveram participação de 84,2% do valor total exportado em produtos do agronegócio. Ou seja, houve desconcentração nas exportações do setor.

O valor das exportações dos vinte demais setores do agronegócio foi de US$ 1,47 bilhão, cifra 2,3% superior àquela de março de 2018, que foi de US$ 1,44 bilhão.

O principal segmento exportador do agronegócio em março foi o complexo soja, que aumentou sua participação para 46% do valor total das exportações, com vendas externas de US$ 3,98 bilhões. O volume exportado de soja em grão foi recorde para os meses de março, atingindo 9,1 milhões de toneladas (+3%). Porém, a queda do preço internacional da commoditie em 6,8% fez com que o valor exportado caísse 3,9%, chegando a US$ 3,30 bilhões.

As exportações de carnes caíram de US$ 1,35 bilhão em março de 2018 para US$ 1,23 bilhão em março de 2019 (-8,5%). Todos os tipos de carnes apresentaram queda no valor exportado: carne de frango (US$ 557,96 milhões; -3,9%); carne bovina (US$ 529,45 milhões; -10,5%); carne suína (US$ 105,70 milhões; -8,9%); e carne de peru (US$ 4,98 milhões; -72,2%).

O setor cafeeiro foi o único dentre os cinco principais segmentos do agronegócio brasileiro que apresentou crescimento das exportações em março de 2019. As exportações do produto subiram para US$ 467,39 milhões (+12,3%), fruto do expressivo incremento de 38,9% no volume exportado. O preço médio de exportação, porém, teve queda de 19,1%.



SETOR PÚBLICO



IPEA. 15/04/2019. Gastos com pessoal nos estados cresceram quase três vezes mais que o PIB em 2018. Indicadores Ipea de Gastos com Pessoal mostram que apenas RJ e SE não elevaram as despesas com inativos no ano passado

Os gastos com pessoal em 23 Unidades da Federação tiveram um aumento real médio de 2,9% em 2018, na comparação com 2017. Esse resultado é quase três vezes superior ao crescimento de 1,1% verificado no Produto Interno Bruto (soma de toda a riqueza produzida pelo Brasil) no ano passado, segundo os Indicadores Ipea de Gastos com Pessoal divulgados nesta segunda-feira, 15. As despesas com inativos mantiveram uma trajetória ascendente, alcançando uma taxa média de crescimento de 7,6% em 2018 – dez vezes mais que os gastos com ativos, que fecharam o ano em 0,7%.

A análise refere-se a 23 Unidades da Federação (UFs) porque não foi possível construir indicadores com os dados disponíveis para Amapá, Rio Grande do Norte e Roraima, nem com os existentes sobre inativos no Piauí. Esse conjunto de 23 estados gastou com pessoal, em valores reais, mais de R$ 373 bilhões em 2018. O montante inclui servidores ativos e inativos.

Rondônia (22,8%) e Tocantins (17,1%) foram os estados que registraram maior crescimento nos gastos com inativos. Das 23 UFs consideradas, apenas Rio de Janeiro e Sergipe não apresentaram aumento em 2018. Considerando apenas servidores ativos, 14 estados tiveram crescimento nos gastos: lideram a lista Ceará (12,79%) e Pará (8,52%).

Cláudio Hamilton dos Santos, um dos autores do estudo e pesquisador do Grupo de Conjuntura do Ipea, explica que, ao se considerar os números de servidores, o crescimento dos gastos com inativos não surpreende. “Esse cenário reflete o alto número de novas aposentadorias, fenômeno que já vem ocorrendo há alguns anos.” Chama mais a atenção, segundo Santos, o fato de vários estados terem apresentado elevações nos gastos com ativos, o que não vinha ocorrendo em anos recentes. “Talvez por ter sido um ano eleitoral, o fato é que vários estados apresentaram pequenos aumentos nos quadros de servidores estatutários em 2018.”

Na análise do quantitativo de servidores em 2018, dois estados apresentam número de inativos maior que o de ativos: Minas Gerais e Rio Grande do Sul. Os mineiros fecharam o ano com 283.614 inativos e 245.319 ativos. Já os gaúchos encerraram o mesmo período com 167.532 inativos e 107.906 ativos.

Estudo: http://www.ipea.gov.br/cartadeconjuntura/index.php/2019/04/15/indicadores-ipea-de-gastos-com-pessoal-nos-estados/



CONSUMO



FECOMÉRCIO-SP. PORTAL G1. 15/04/2019. Inadimplência das famílias paulistanas volta ao patamar de 20%. Segundo a FecomercioSP, essa proporção de dívidas em atraso demostra a fragilidade da situação financeira das famílias.

A inadimplência entre as famílias paulistanas, que desde outubro do ano passado não atingia 20%, em março deste ano chegou a 20,1%, alta de 0,3 ponto percentual em relação a fevereiro e de 0,8 p.p. na comparação com março de 2018. No total, 2,16 milhões de famílias permanecem com algum tipo de dívida e 787,3 mil estão com contas em atraso.

A proporção de lares paulistanos endividados passou de 53,6% em fevereiro para 55,1% em março, elevação de 1,5 ponto porcentual no mês e 0,3 ponto porcentual no comparativo anual.

Os dados são da Pesquisa de Endividamento e Inadimplência do Consumidor (PEIC), realizada mensalmente pela Federação do Comércio de Bens, Serviços e Turismo do Estado de São Paulo (FecomercioSP).

Segundo a entidade, a inadimplência acima dos 20% é um sinal de alerta aos empresários, pois demonstra que a fragilidade da situação financeira das famílias. Em relação ao endividamento, apesar da elevação vista no mês, ainda é considerado natural e comprova os gastos excedentes de dezembro, sem planejamento das tradicionais despesas do início de ano.

O principal tipo de dívida das famílias continua sendo o cartão de crédito (70,1%). Na segunda posição, ficaram os carnês, com 14,7%, ante os 13,5% de fevereiro.

De acordo com a assessoria econômica da FecomercioSP, o crescimento do carnê como modalidade de pagamento pode indicar uma redução por parte dos bancos do acesso ao crédito, fazendo com que os consumidores recorram aos parcelamentos das compras diretamente com as lojas, normalmente menos restritivas na avaliação de dados pessoais.

Por renda

As famílias com rendimentos abaixo de 10 salários mínimos impulsionaram o endividamento, 58,7%, ante os 56,4% de fevereiro. Para o grupo com renda superior a 10 salários, o endividamento registrou leve queda, de 45,4% para 44,6%. O porcentual de inadimplência se manteve estável em ambos os grupos.

O porcentual de famílias que disseram não ter condições de pagar dívidas registrou aumento de 8,5% em fevereiro para 8,7% em março - 16,9 mil famílias a mais em relação a 2018. Ao todo, são 342,6 mil lares nessa situação atualmente.

Em relação ao tempo de dívida em atraso, houve elevação, passando de 68 dias em fevereiro para 69 dias em março. Na comparação com o mesmo período do ano passado, o avanço foi de cinco dias. O maior porcentual é o de longo prazo (acima de 90 dias), com 56,4% - no mesmo período de 2018, era de 52,2%.


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LGCJ.:
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