US ECONOMICS
INFLATION
DoL. BLS. April 10, 2019. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – MARCH 2019
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent
in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in February,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,
the all items index increased 1.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The energy index increased 3.5 percent in March, accounting for about 60
percent of the seasonally adjusted all items monthly increase. The gasoline
index increased sharply, and the electricity index also rose, although the
natural gas index declined. The food index also increased in March, with the
indexes for food at home and food away from home both continuing to rise.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in March,
the same increase as in February. The indexes for shelter, medical care, new
vehicles, recreation, education, and tobacco were among those that increased
in March, while the indexes for apparel, used cars and trucks, and airline
fares all declined.
The all items index increased 1.9 percent for the 12 months ending March, a
larger increase than the 1.5-percent rise for the period ending February. The
index for all items less food and energy rose 2.0 percent over the last 12
months. The food index rose 2.1 percent over the past year, its largest 12-month
increase since the period ending March 2015, while the energy index declined
0.4 percent over the past year.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average
Seasonally adjusted changes from
preceding month
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. ended
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 Mar.
2019
All items.................. .1 .3 .0 .0 .0 .2 .4 1.9
Food...................... .1 .0 .2 .3 .2 .4 .3 2.1
Food at home............. -.1 -.1 .1 .3 .1 .4 .4 1.4
Food away from home (1).. .2 .1 .3 .4 .3 .4 .2 3.0
Energy.................... -1.0 2.1 -2.8 -2.6 -3.1 .4 3.5 -.4
Energy commodities....... -1.1 2.6 -5.0 -5.7 -5.3 1.5 6.2 -.6
Gasoline (all types).... -1.2 2.7 -5.2 -5.8 -5.5 1.5 6.5 -.7
Fuel oil................ -.7 3.2 -2.9 -9.4 -1.3 2.6 2.1 -.4
Energy services.......... -.9 1.3 .2 1.5 -.5 -.8 .3 -.1
Electricity............. -.7 1.8 .2 .4 -.6 -.3 .4 .3
Utility (piped) gas
service.............. -1.5 -.5 .2 5.1 -.3 -2.4 -.1 -1.4
All items less food and
energy................. .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .1 .1 2.0
Commodities less food and
energy commodities.... -.1 .3 .2 .0 .4 -.2 -.2 .0
New vehicles............ .0 -.2 .0 .0 .2 -.2 .4 .7
Used cars and trucks.... -2.1 2.5 2.5 -.5 .1 -.7 -.4 .4
Apparel................. .9 .2 -.6 .0 1.1 .3 -1.9 -2.2
Medical care commodities -.2 -.1 .5 -.4 .1 -1.0 .4 -.6
Services less energy
services.............. .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .3 2.7
Shelter................. .2 .2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .4 3.4
Transportation services .5 .1 .0 -.1 -.2 -.1 .0 1.0
Medical care services... .3 .2 .4 .4 .3 .0 .3 2.3
1 Not seasonally adjusted.
Food
The food index rose 0.3 percent in March following a 0.4-percent increase in
February. The index for food at home rose 0.4 percent in March, the same increase
as the prior month. The index for fruits and vegetables rose 1.6 percent, with
the index for fresh vegetables increasing 2.0 percent and the index for fresh
fruits rising 1.2 percent. The dairy and related products index increased 0.6
percent, and the cereals and bakery products index rose 0.3 percent. The index
for other food at home also increased in March, rising 0.1 percent.
The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs was the only major grocery store
food group index to decline in March, falling 0.2 percent after rising 0.2 percent
in February. The index for nonalcoholic beverages was unchanged in March after
increasing in each of the prior 3 months.
The index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in March after increasing 0.4
percent in February. The index for limited service meals rose 0.2 percent and the
index for full service meals increased 0.1 percent.
The food at home index rose 1.4 percent over the last 12 months. Five of the six
major grocery store food group indexes rose over the span, with the fruits and
vegetables index posting the largest increase at 3.9 percent. The index for meats,
poultry, fish, and eggs was the only one to decline, falling 0.2 percent over the
last 12 months. The index for food away from home increased 3.0 percent over the
past 12 months, with the index for limited service meals increasing 3.1 percent
and the index for full service meals rising 2.8 percent.
Energy
The energy index rose 3.5 percent in March. The gasoline index rose 6.5 percent
in March after increasing 1.5 percent in February. (Before seasonal adjustment,
gasoline prices rose 9.0 percent in March.) The electricity index also increased
in March, rising 0.4 percent after falling in January and February. The index for
natural gas declined for the third month in a row, falling 0.1 percent in March.
Despite the increase in March, the energy index fell slightly over the last 12
months, declining 0.4 percent. The index for gasoline fell 0.7 percent, while the
index for natural gas declined 1.4 percent. The electricity index, in contrast,
increased 0.3 percent over the last 12 months.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in March, the
same monthly increase as in February. The shelter index continued to rise, increasing
0.4 percent. The index for rent rose 0.4 percent, while the index for owners’
equivalent rent increased 0.3 percent.
The medical care index, which declined in February, rose 0.3 percent in March. The
index for prescription drugs increased 0.6 percent in March following a 1.0-percent
decline in February. The index for hospital services also increased in March, rising
0.3 percent, but the index for physicians’ services declined, falling 0.4 percent.
The index for new vehicles increased 0.4 percent in March after declining in February.
The recreation index rose 0.3 percent, and the education index advanced 0.5 percent.
The index for tobacco increased 1.6 percent, its largest increase since April 2017.
In contrast, the index for apparel declined 1.9 percent in March after rising in
February. The index for used cars and trucks fell for the second month in a row in
March, declining 0.4 percent. The index for airline fares fell in March, decreasing
0.6 percent after rising in February. Also declining in March were the indexes for
communication and for motor vehicle insurance.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.0 percent over the past 12 months,
a slightly smaller increase than the 2.1-percent rise for the period ending February.
The shelter index rose 3.4 percent over the span, and the medical care index increased
1.7 percent. The indexes for apparel, airline fares, and communication all declined
for the 12 months ending March.
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.9 percent over the
last 12 months to an index level of 254.202 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index
increased 0.6 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased
1.8 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 247.768 (1982-84=100). For the
month, the index increased 0.6 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 1.7 percent
over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.6 percent on a not
seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months
are subject to revision.
FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
INTEREST RATE
FED. April 10, 2019. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 19-20, 2019
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on March 19-20, 2019. A summary of economic projections made by Federal Reserve Board members and Reserve Bank presidents for the meeting is also included as an addendum to these minutes.
The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes and in the Summary of Economic Projections are based solely on the information that was available to the Committee at the time of the meeting.
Meeting calendars, statements, and minutes (2014-2019)
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision. Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of the year.
FOIA
The FOMC makes an annual report pursuant to the Freedom of Information Act. The FOMC FOIA Service Center provides information about the status of FOIA requests and the FOIA process.
FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
IMF
U.S. Department of the Treasury. 04/10/2019. IMFC Statement of Secretary Mnuchin
Washington – U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin issued the following statement at the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank:
I welcome the opportunity to discuss the state of the United States and global economy at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings. While growth in the United States remains robust, growth abroad has softened materially, with risks of a further slowdown if countries do not take action to reduce uncertainty and bolster confidence. Countries should also undertake stronger efforts to address underlying structural impediments and help raise medium-term growth. A well-functioning IMF can play a key role in supporting these efforts, promoting policies aimed at more balanced and durable global growth, and strengthening economic capacity and governance.
Strong underlying fundamentals helped power the U.S. economy to its best growth performance in over a decade in 2018, with real GDP expanding by 3 percent over the four quarters of last year. One year after the passage of tax reform, business investment has surged and productivity growth has begun to pick up. American families are enjoying key benefits afforded by lower tax rates. Labor markets have continued to strengthen, with the participation rates for all workers and prime-age employees rising, suggesting that tax reform has drawn workers back into the labor force in numbers that are more than offsetting downward pressure from demographics. The number of job openings exceeds the number of unemployed persons, and wage growth has accelerated to its fastest pace in 10 years.
Beyond the United States, global growth has slowed since we last met, and determined action is needed to return the global economy to strong, broad-based expansion. Disappointing economic data across most regions of the global economy raise questions about the extent and depth of current weaknesses. While this may prove to be a temporary soft patch, a more widespread downturn creates risks of a prolonged stagnation. Countries with weak economic activity or muted growth need to proactively deploy macroeconomic policies and pursue productivity-enhancing reforms in order to bolster both near-term and medium-term growth.
To that end, the United States continues in its efforts to address restrictive trade practices around the world that are impeding stronger and more balanced U.S. and global growth. To achieve a balanced and fair trading system, we must address the significant imbalances in global trade that stem in part from unfair trade policies and high trade barriers.
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is an example of progress and cooperation across borders that will move us in the right direction as we look to rebalance North American trade. Working with Mexican and Canadian counterparts, we negotiated the strongest financial services provisions of any U.S. trade agreement and secured new commitments on currency issues, boosting transparency and accountability. This trade agreement is key to ensuring positive outcomes for businesses and workers across North America.
Continuing large global trade and current account imbalances also pose risks to the strength and stability of future global growth. While imbalances narrowed following the global financial crisis, they have been broadly unchanged at close to 2 percent of global GDP since 2013. Persistent imbalances are intensifying these risks across major economies. In order to support stronger and more sustainable global growth – particularly at a juncture where global activity is flagging – countries reliant upon large and persistent external surpluses to drive domestic growth should reorient their macroeconomic policies to boost domestic demand.
The current state of affairs reinforces the importance of IMF reforms to maintain its relevance and effectiveness. This will not be the first time the international community has looked closely at the IMF. Over the years, the IMF has undergone a series of transformations, responding to fundamental changes in the world economy and international monetary system, and it should continue to evolve to respond to the challenges ahead.
Of most immediate concern is ensuring the IMF has sufficient financial resources to respond to potential crises. In our view, the IMF currently has ample resources to achieve its mission, and countries also have considerable complementary resources should a crisis emerge. Thus, we do not see a need for a quota increase at this time and support closure of the 15th General Quota Review as soon as possible. At the same time, we recognize that the IMF’s borrowed resources, including the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB) and bilateral borrowing arrangements, are set to expire in the next few years. We look forward to working closely with the IMF and other members to identify options for extending a portion of these borrowed resources so that the IMF can maintain adequate resources to deliver on its mission. We also look forward to agreeing on a reasonable timeframe for the 16th General Quota Review.
Just as members need to assure that the IMF maintains adequate resources, the IMF also needs to assure its members that it is delivering effectively on its core mission. A key aspect of that mission remains the promotion of debt transparency and sustainability, and here the IMF has a leading role to play. Debt owed to emerging creditors is at a critical juncture, with debt levels rising among both low income/emerging and advanced economies. Increasingly, opaque or unsustainable lending practices weaken investor confidence, erode governance and accountability, and create a drag on economic growth. We welcome continued progress on the IMF/World Bank multi-pronged work agenda on debt. While the broad contours of this agenda are now in place, the IMF’s effectiveness will rest in the details. The IMF should continue to promote greater transparency of borrowing from all creditors in its programs, laying a benchmark for future programs to build upon. In its bilateral surveillance, the IMF must also proactively identify data gaps and promote disclosure of all current and potential public liabilities by member countries. Upcoming IMF policy reviews to update the debt sustainability analysis of market access countries, reexamine the data requirements for surveillance, and strengthen Special Data Dissemination Standards, will play a key role in reinforcing this objective of debt transparency and sustainability.
Other policy reviews will also provide invaluable opportunities for the IMF to improve its effectiveness. The ongoing review of program conditionality should result in reforms aimed at strengthening program design, with focused program conditions that prioritize broad-based growth and median real income. For example, in the case of Argentina, a focused set of conditions aimed at addressing weaknesses in monetary and fiscal policies helped to stabilize financial markets, putting the economy on track to return to growth. The review of conditionality should also address parsimony and criticality of conditions, and help solidify the need for close coordination with other international financial institutions. The IMF should leverage the upcoming review of its surveillance framework to better deliver on its core mandate, prioritizing such issues as resolving data gaps and transparency, enhancing surveillance of debt sustainability and external sector assessments, and addressing surveillance challenges in low income countries.
Central to any reforms to improve the IMF, and key to the IMF’s future as an institution, is the IMF’s continued ability to attract exceptional talent. We are pleased to see the Fund tackle the challenge of modernizing salaries and benefits head-on with a comprehensive compensation and benefits review, also known as the CCBR. As we look forward to the results of the CCBR later this year, we expect to see reforms that promote fiscal discipline, facilitate more career progression, streamline under-utilized benefits, and support the needs of today’s working families. Just as we need to modernize and increase efficiencies of IMF staff, the IMF Executive Board should also leverage this review to examine ways in which it can streamline its own activities and Board costs, and demonstrate to its staff and the international community that IMF members are leading by example in an era of competing priorities and shrinking budgets.
We look forward to working with other members and the IMF to execute on these reforms in the coming year. Not only are these measures key to maintaining the Fund’s effectiveness and relevance, they will also lay the foundation for long-term financial sustainability, position the Fund as a leader among financial institutions, and bolster its credentials as a public institution funded by IMF shareholders.
VENEZUELA
U.S. Department of State. April 10, 2019. United States Provides Additional Humanitarian Aid to Venezuelans Who Have Fled Their Country
Washington, DC - Today, Vice President Pence announced that the United States is providing nearly $61 million in additional humanitarian assistance to support the regional response for the 3.4 million Venezuelans who have fled the man-made crisis in their country. The Vice President recognizes the need to increase support for these vulnerable Venezuelans, and announced the new funding during a meeting of the United Nations Security Council focused on the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela.
The United States has provided more than $213 million in humanitarian assistance to provide life-saving aid and critical basic social services – including shelter, emergency food and health assistance, safe drinking water, protection from violence and exploitation, and access to work and education opportunities – to the most vulnerable Venezuelans living in 16 countries in the region. This assistance complements the efforts of host countries to help those who have fled repression and chaos in Venezuela.
The funding from today’s announcement, provided by the Department of State and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), complements the relief supplies that the United States and its partners have pre-positioned in Brazil, Colombia, and Curaçao since February 7, 2019.
- In Colombia, U.S. partners provide reception support to Venezuelans, including basic food, medical care, shelter, water and sanitation, and hygiene services, while humanitarian organizations funded by the U.S. Government help provide legal documentation and help establish housing or offer relocation support. At a recently inaugurated reception center in La Guajira, for example, approximately 200 households are sheltering as of early April.
- In Brazil, the U.S.-funded organizations are providing vulnerable Venezuelans with safe drinking water and access to hygiene and sanitation services. In addition, U.S. partners are helping to relocate Venezuelans in Brazil to locations where they can access employment. Our partners are also funding local housing and transportation costs.
- In Ecuador, the United States finances partners to deliver food assistance, provide shelter, and offer livelihood training to vulnerable Venezuelan migrants.
- In Trinidad and Tobago, the United States is providing temporary shelter and cash assistance to the most vulnerable Venezuelan households. As children of registered asylum-seekers are unable to attend school, U.S. partners are providing education through a temporary learning facility, while continuing to engage the local government find a more sustainable solution that would allow the approximately 800 children of Venezuelan asylum-seekers to enroll in classes.
- In Peru, the United States is providing hot meals and nutritional support. S.-financed partners are meeting Venezuelan refugees at the border and helping connect them to organizations that can help them with shelter, health care, and other social services. U.S. partners are also providing direct assistance to families, offering them the flexibility to secure what they need most – whether food or household items from local markets, personal supplies, or a place to stay.
As the Vice President reiterated at the UN today, we continue to commend the contributions of the governments and communities in Latin America and the Caribbean that are generously hosting Venezuelan refugees and permitting the pre-positioning of humanitarian assistance during this time of crisis. The United States calls on other donors to contribute to meeting the growing needs in Venezuela and the region.
CARIBBEAN
U.S. Department of State. April 10, 2019. Deputy Secretary Sullivan To Host U.S.-Caribbean Resilience Partnership Ministerial
Washington, DC - Deputy Secretary of State John J. Sullivan will travel to U.S. Southern Command headquarters in Miami, Florida from April 11–12 to host a ministerial with Caribbean leaders launching the U.S.-Caribbean Resilience Partnership, a new collaborative effort to build regional capacity to confront disaster response and promote resilience. Leaders will discuss new opportunities for collaboration to enhance the region’s preparedness and response efforts.
Senior leaders from eighteen countries in the Caribbean will participate, including Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and the Dutch islands of Aruba, Curacao, and Sint Maarten. The Caribbean Emergency Disaster Management Agency and the Regional Security System will also attend.
Senior officials from U.S. Southern Command, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Federal Aviation Administration, the Federal Communications Commission, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Department of Energy, the Inter-American Foundation, and the U.S. Geological Survey will also participate in the ministerial.
Deputy Secretary Sullivan’s engagement with our Caribbean neighbors, with the support of a broad coalition of the U.S. government, will reaffirm the United States’ strong commitment to the Caribbean.
________________
ORGANISMS
IMF. APRIL 10, 2019. Weak Spots in Global Financial System Could Amplify Shocks
By Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci
In the United States, the ratio of corporate debt to GDP is at record-high levels. In several European countries, banks are overloaded with government bonds. In China, bank profitability is declining, and capital levels remain low at small and medium-size lenders.
Vulnerabilities like these are on the rise across advanced and emerging market economies, according to the IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report. They aren’t all setting off alarm bells just yet. But if they continue to build, especially with still-easy financial conditions, they could amplify shocks to the global economy, raising the odds of a severe economic downturn a few years down the road.
With the right mix of policies, countries can sustain growth while keeping vulnerabilities in check.
This poses a dilemma for policymakers seeking to counter a slowing global economy, as discussed in the World Economic Outlook. By taking a patient approach to monetary policy, central banks can accommodate growing downside risks to the economy. But if financial conditions remain easy for too long, vulnerabilities will continue to build, and the odds of a sharp drop in economic growth at some later point will be higher.
The good news: short-term risks to global financial stability are still low by historical standards, though they are slightly higher than we found in our October 2018 Global Financial Stability Report . In the medium term, however, risks remain elevated. But with the right mix of policies, countries can sustain growth while keeping vulnerabilities in check.
Why do we worry about financial vulnerabilities? Because they can amplify the impact of sudden shocks—such as a sharper-than-anticipated economic slowdown, an unexpected shift in monetary policy, or an escalation of trade tensions. Higher vulnerabilities give rise to greater financial stability risks.
The latest Global Financial Stability Report introduces a way to quantify vulnerabilities in the financial system, so policymakers can monitor them in real time and take preventive steps if needed to mitigate risks. The framework encompasses six sectors: corporates, households, governments, banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions—some of which are what we call “shadow banks.”
The framework tracks both the level and the pace of change along a variety of vulnerabilities, including leverage and mismatches in the maturity and liquidity of assets and liabilities, as well as currency exposures. These vulnerabilities are tracked at regional and global levels, aggregating across 29 systemically important countries.
Here are some of the most serious vulnerabilities:
Advanced economies. Corporate debt and financial risk-taking have increased, and the creditworthiness of borrowers has deteriorated. The stock of bonds with BBB ratings has quadrupled, and the stock of speculative-grade credits has almost doubled in the United States and the euro area since the crisis. A sharp tightening of financial conditions or a severe downturn could make it harder for indebted firms to repay their loans and force them to cut back on investment or employment. So-called leveraged loans to highly indebted borrowers are an area of particular concern, as we explained in an earlier blog and discuss further in the current GFSR.
- Euro area. Fiscal challenges in some countries could drive bond yields sharply higher, resulting in significant losses for banks with large holdings of government debt. Insurance companies could also face losses. This dynamic, known as the sovereign-financial sector nexus, was at the heart of the euro crisis in 2011. Still, banks have higher capital ratios today, and policymakers have taken steps to address nonperforming loans on banks’ balance sheets.
- China. A decline in profits and low levels of capital at small and medium-sized banks is restraining credit to smaller private firms. Further monetary and credit support may increase financial stability risks, as continued credit growth makes it harder for smaller banks to clean up their balance sheets.
- Emerging markets. Increasingly, overseas portfolio investments in emerging markets are run by managers who seek to match the returns of popular indexes. The value of fixed-income, benchmark-driven investments has quadrupled in the past ten years to $800 billion. While index-driven funds expand the universe of investors for emerging market economies, they also leave them more vulnerable to sudden reversals of capital flows in response global trends.
Fortunately, there are ways to address such vulnerabilities:
- So-called macroprudential tools can cool credit growth and make the financial system more resilient. One example: countercyclical capital buffers, which require banks to increase capital when credit is growing.
- Countries with high corporate debt could develop tools to limit the riskiness of credit to firms—especially credit provided by nonbank lenders.
- In the euro zone, lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio among highly indebted governments is a priority to curb risks. So is further repairing banks’ balance sheets, including by reducing non-performing loans.
- China needs to continue reducing leverage in the financial sector, especially in shadow banking, and ensure that lenders build capital buffers. Authorities should also promptly carry out announced reforms to address risks in investment products.
- Emerging market economies coping with volatile capital flows could limit reliance on short-term overseas debt and ensure adequate foreign currency reserves and fiscal buffers. Countries can also use flexible exchange rates to absorb shocks.
In some circumstances, countries with strong economies and inflation at or above target can also consider using monetary policy to “lean against the wind.” With the right combination of policies, countries can keep their economies humming while also limiting risks to financial stability.
AUDIO: https://soundcloud.com/imf-podcasts/vulnerabilities-in-a-maturing
FULL DOCUMENT: https://blogs.imf.org/2019/04/10/weak-spots-in-global-financial-system-could-amplify-shocks/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
FISCAL POLICY
IMF. APRIL 10, 2019. High Debt Hampers Countries’ Response to a Fast-Changing Global Economy
By Vitor Gaspar, John Ralyea, and Elif Ture
Economic growth is slowing and public debt remains high across the world. Meanwhile, demographic changes and technological advances are reshaping the global economy.
Everyone’s opportunities for a good education, along with their job prospects, healthcare, and retirement income depend on the tax and spending choices governments make as they respond to these challenges.
What should policymakers do?
In the new Fiscal Monitor, we argue that they can take a long-term view to foster higher and more inclusive growth. This means getting their fiscal houses in order by gradually lowering debt to prepare for the next downturn and upgrading fiscal policy to invest in people’s futures. This requires better allocating spending, creating more room in the budget, and improving tax policy.
Preparing for the next downturn
High debt can handicap policymakers’ ability to increase spending or cut taxes to offset weak economic growth, as creditors may be less willing to finance larger budget deficits. Interest payments on debt also crowd out spending on education, health, and infrastructure, which are all investments that help a country grow for many years to come.
Each country will have to identify an appropriate strategy to make room in its budget to help the economy during the next downturn.
Countries with high debt will have to increase revenues or curb excessive spending. This is especially relevant where current economic growth exceeds long-run potential growth, as in the United States, or where borrowing costs are high and financing needs are large, such as in Brazil and Italy.
Yet, these countries should maintain investments in education, health, and infrastructure, either by reprioritizing spending or broadening the tax base, for example, by removing tax exemptions and improving tax administration.
Where financing is less of a concern, such as in Germany and Korea, policymakers could increase investment in infrastructure or education to support the economy in the near term, and foster inclusive growth over the next few decades.
Investing in people’s futures
Fiscal policy must also look beyond preparing for the next economic downturn. The shift in demographics along with new technologies are having a profound impact on economic growth and the distribution of incomes and wealth. These trends also impact public finances.
For example, in advanced economies, whose populations are rapidly aging, we project that age-related public spending, such as pensions and healthcare, will consume a quarter of GDP by 2050.
Conversely, emerging market and low-income developing economies’ populations are much younger and growing fast. To make progress toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals on infrastructure and public services, these countries will require additional public spending.
What can countries do to adapt to these global trends and reduce their debt?
They can pursue smarter and more agile policies to facilitate change. This means upgrading fiscal policy on three fronts.
Shift spending
First, countries should shift spending toward growth-enhancing investment in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, while cutting wasteful spending, such as inefficient energy subsidies.
For example, gradually removing fuel subsidies, while protecting the most vulnerable, could provide up to 4 percent of global GDP in additional resources for countries to invest in people and growth.
Focusing more on policies that foster lifelong learning and continuous upgrading of skills are also important in a more digital and automated world. For example, Singapore offers training grants to all adults throughout their working lives, and the Netherlands offers tax deductions for workforce training.
Curbing corruption would also help raise additional resources and reduce waste, as we show in Chapter 2 of the Fiscal Monitor.
Create more room in the budget
Second, steps to improve public financial management and raise revenues could create more room in the budget. In advanced economies, better management of government financial assets could yield up to 3 percent of GDP a year in additional revenue, as shown in the October 2018 Fiscal Monitor.
Emerging market and low-income developing economies should raise their revenue collection. For example, sub-Saharan African countries could raise, on average, 3 to 5 percent of GDP in additional revenue over the next five years if they improve the efficiency of their current tax systems.
Improve tax policies
Third, advanced economies should return to more progressive income taxes, which will help reduce inequality. Most also have room to raise revenue significantly from taxing inheritances, land, and real estate.
Also, governments should cooperate to reform taxation of large multinational corporations, in particular digital ones. This would help raise revenues, including for low-income developing countries, by limiting profit-shifting and global tax competition.
These actions would help raise long-term economic growth, which is a key ingredient to reduce the burden of high public debt. They would also spread economic benefits more widely within and across countries, and restore the public trust in institutions necessary for economic stability.
FULL DOCUMENT: https://blogs.imf.org/2019/04/10/high-debt-hampers-countries-response-to-a-fast-changing-global-economy/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
MIDDLE CLASS
OECD. 10/04/2019. Governments must act to help struggling middle class
Governments need to do more to support middle-class households who are struggling to maintain their economic weight and lifestyles as their stagnating incomes fail to keep up with the rising costs of housing and education, according to a new OECD report.
Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class says that the middle class has shrunk in most OECD countries as it has become more difficult for younger generations to make it to the middle class, defined as earning between 75% and 200% of the median national income. While almost 70% of baby boomers were part of middle-income households in their twenties, only 60% of millennials are today.
The economic influence of the middle class has also dropped sharply. Across the OECD area, except for a few countries, middle incomes are barely higher today than they were ten years ago, increasing by just 0.3% per year, a third less than the average income of the richest 10%.
“Today the middle class looks increasingly like a boat in rocky waters,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría, launching the report in New York with Luis Felipe Lopéz-Calva, Assistant Secretary General, Latin America and the Caribbean, United Nations Development Programme. “Governments must listen to people’s concerns and protect and promote middle class living standards. This will help drive inclusive and sustainable growth and create a more cohesive and stable social fabric.”
Gabriela Ramos, OECD Chief of Staff and Sherpa overseeing the Organisation’s work on Inclusive Growth, presented in more details the main findings of the report, saying “our analysis delivers a bleak picture and a call for action. The middle class is at the core of a cohesive, thriving society. We need to address their concerns regarding living costs, fairness and uncertainty.”
The cost of a middle class lifestyle has increased faster than inflation. Housing, for example, makes up the largest single spending item for middle-income households, at around one third of disposable income, up from a quarter in the 1990s. House prices have been growing three times faster than household median income over the last two decades.
More than one in five middle-income households spend more than they earn and over-indebtedness is higher for them than for both low-income and high-income households. In addition, labour market prospects have become increasingly uncertain: one in six middle-income workers are in jobs that are at high risk of automation, compared to one in five low-income and one in ten high-income workers.
To help the middle class, a comprehensive action plan is needed, according to the OECD. Governments should improve access to high-quality public services and ensure better social protection coverage. To tackle cost of living issues, policies should encourage the supply of affordable housing. Targeted grants, financial support for loans and tax relief for home buyers would help lower middle-income households. In countries with acute levels of housing-related debt, mortgage relief would help overburdened households get back on track.
As temporary or unstable jobs - often offering lower wages and job security - increasingly replace traditional middle-class jobs, more investment is needed in vocational education and training systems. Social insurance and collective bargaining coverage for non-standard workers, such as part-time or temporary employees or self-employed, should be extended.
Finally, to foster fairness of the socio-economic system, policies need to consider shifting the tax burden from labour income to income from capital and capital gains, property and inheritance, as well as making income taxes more progressive and fair.
Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class is the latest in a series of OECD reports that have documented over the past decade how inequalities have increased in our societies, making it harder for many citizens to make ends meet.
Document and more information, including country notes for Australia, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States: http://www.oecd.org/social/under-pressure-the-squeezed-middle-class-689afed1-en.htm
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ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRAZIL ECONOMICS
INFLAÇÃO
IBGE. 10/04/2019. IPCA foi de 0,75% em março de 2019
O Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo - IPCA de março foi de 0,75% e ficou 0,32 ponto percentual (p.p.) acima da taxa de fevereiro (0,43%). Esta foi a maior taxa para um mês de março desde março de 2015 (1,32%). A variação acumulada no ano foi de 1,51%, a maior para o período desde 2016 (2,62%). O acumulado dos últimos doze meses foi para 4,58%, contra os 3,89% nos 12 meses imediatamente anteriores. Em março de 2018, a taxa foi de 0,09%.
| Período | Taxa |
|---|---|
| Março de 2019 | 0,75% |
| Fevereiro de 2019 | 0,43% |
| Março de 2018 | 0,09% |
| Acumulado no ano | 1,51% |
| Acumulado nos 12 meses | 4,58% |
O resultado do IPCA de março sofreu forte influência dos grupos Alimentação e bebidas (1,37%) e Transportes (1,44%). Juntos, estes dois grupos, que representam cerca de 43% das despesas das famílias, responderam por 80% do índice do mês, com impactos de 0,34 p.p. e 0,26 p.p., respectivamente. Comunicação, com -0,22%, foi o único grupo que apresentou deflação em março. Os resultados de todos os grupos de produtos e serviços pesquisados estão na tabela a seguir.
| IPCA - Variação e Impacto por grupos - mensal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grupo | Variação (%) | Impacto (p.p.) | ||
| Fevereiro | Março | Fevereiro | Março | |
| Índice Geral | 0,43 | 0,75 | 0,43 | 0,75 |
| Alimentação e Bebidas | 0,78 | 1,37 | 0,19 | 0,34 |
| Habitação | 0,38 | 0,25 | 0,06 | 0,04 |
| Artigos de Residência | 0,20 | 0,27 | 0,01 | 0,01 |
| Vestuário | -0,33 | 0,45 | -0,02 | 0,02 |
| Transportes | -0,34 | 1,44 | -0,06 | 0,26 |
| Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais | 0,49 | 0,42 | 0,06 | 0,05 |
| Despesas Pessoais | 0,18 | 0,16 | 0,02 | 0,02 |
| Educação | 3,53 | 0,32 | 0,17 | 0,02 |
| Comunicação | 0,00 | -0,22 | 0,00 | -0,01 |
| Fonte: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços | ||||
O grupo Alimentação e bebidas se destacou com o maior impacto (0,34p.p.) e a segunda maior variação (1,37%) dentre os grupos de produtos e serviços pesquisados. O grupamento dos alimentos para consumo no domicílio registrou alta de 2,07%, com as regiões variando desde o 0,80% de Rio Branco ao 3,38% de São Luís. Os itens que sobressaíram são: o tomate (31,84%), a batata-inglesa (21,11%), o feijão-carioca (12,93%) e as frutas (4,26%).
Nos Transportes, após a deflação (-0,34%) de fevereiro, o índice apresentou forte aceleração (1,44%), a maior variação dentre os grupos de produtos e serviços pesquisados. Os combustíveis (3,49%) foram os principais responsáveis pela alta, com a gasolina custando, em média, 2,88% a mais. As variações ficaram entre os -2,47% de Goiânia e os 8,54% da região metropolitana de Fortaleza. Quanto ao etanol, cuja alta foi de 7,02%, novamente Goiânia foi a única área a registrar queda de preços (-4,37%). A maior variação foi de 8,57% na região metropolitana de São Paulo.
Outras contribuições positivas no grupo dos Transportes vêm dos itens passagem aérea (7,29%) e do ônibus urbano (0,90%), ambos com 0,03 p.p. Este último contempla os reajustes de 9,30% nas tarifas em Porto Alegre (5,12%), em vigor desde 13 de março, de 7,81% em Recife (7,19%) e de 5,88% em Curitiba (5,41%), ambos a partir de 02 de março. Destaca-se também o trem (2,07%), em razão do reajuste de 27,30% nas tarifas em Porto Alegre (14,85%), em vigor desde 13 de março.
No item energia elétrica (0,04%), do grupo Habitação (0,25%), as regiões pesquisadas apresentaram variações entre a queda (-5,89%) na região metropolitana de Belo Horizonte, motivada, principalmente, pela redução na alíquota do PIS/COFINS, e a alta de 4,72% da região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, em virtude dos reajustes médios de 11,53% e de 9,72% nas concessionárias, partir de 15 de março. Cabe destacar que permanece vigente a bandeira tarifária verde, em que não há cobrança adicional por quilowatt-hora consumido.
Ainda em Habitação, a variação de -0,79% no item gás encanado ocorreu devido à redução do reajuste na tarifa em São Paulo (-2,10%). O reajuste médio inicial era de 11,00% a partir de 1º de fevereiro e passou a ser de 9,00% em 1º de março.
No item taxa de água e esgoto (0,46%), também do grupo Habitação, ocorreu a apropriação da variação de 22,29%, em São Luís, que reproduz o reajuste médio de 22,29%, em vigor desde 09 de fevereiro, ainda não apropriado nos índices. Considere-se também os reajustes de 15,86%, em Fortaleza (3,07%), em vigor desde 24 de março, e de 5,89% em Aracaju (5,51%), a partir de 1º de março.
O grupo Vestuário também deixou para trás a queda de fevereiro (-0,33%), registrando, em março, alta de 0,45%. Os destaques são as roupas masculinas (de -0,01% em fevereiro para 0,68% em março), roupas femininas (de -0,56% em fevereiro para 0,34% em março), roupas infantis (de -0,16% em fevereiro para 0,41% em março) e os calçados (-0,54% em fevereiro para 0,38% em março).
Em Saúde e cuidados pessoais (0,42%), o destaque fica com o item plano de saúde (0,80%).
Em Comunicação (-0,22%), a variação negativa do mês deveu-se à queda no preço dos aparelhos telefônicos (-1,44%) e ao item telefone fixo (-0,75%), por conta da redução média de 7,50% no valor das tarifas de fixo para móvel, a partir de 25 de fevereiro. Já o resultado do item correio (2,23%) reflete os reajustes de 13,90% e 5,47%, em vigor a partir de 06 de março, em um dos serviços no Rio de Janeiro (2,60%) e em Vitória (0,43%), respectivamente.
Quanto aos índices regionais, conforme mostra a tabela a seguir, Goiânia (0,12%) apresentou a menor variação no IPCA de março, em razão das quedas observadas nos preços do etanol (-4,37%) e da gasolina (-2,47%). O maior índice ficou com o município de São Luís (1,36%), cujo resultado foi influenciado, principalmente, pelo item taxa de água e esgoto (22,29%), que reproduz o reajuste médio de 22,29%, em vigor desde 09 de fevereiro, ainda não apropriado nos índices, e pela gasolina (4,11%).
| IPCA - Variação por regiões - mensal e acumulada em 12 meses | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Região | Peso Regional (%) | Variação (%) | Variação Acumulada (%) | ||
| Fevereiro | Março | Ano | 12 meses | ||
| São Luís | 1,87 | 0,43 | 1,36 | 1,88 | 4,58 |
| Aracaju | 0,79 | 0,54 | 1,21 | 2,05 | 4,75 |
| Porto Alegre | 8,40 | 0,15 | 1,18 | 1,41 | 5,18 |
| Fortaleza | 2,91 | 0,69 | 1,04 | 1,89 | 4,26 |
| Brasília | 2,80 | -0,18 | 0,93 | 0,80 | 3,83 |
| Rio de Janeiro | 12,06 | 0,48 | 0,83 | 1,80 | 4,85 |
| Curitiba | 7,79 | 0,18 | 0,83 | 1,05 | 3,99 |
| Recife | 4,20 | 0,59 | 0,82 | 1,69 | 4,59 |
| Rio Branco | 0,42 | 1,12 | 0,78 | 1,82 | 5,32 |
| São Paulo | 30,67 | 0,44 | 0,78 | 1,61 | 4,59 |
| Salvador | 6,12 | 0,18 | 0,76 | 1,32 | 4,75 |
| Campo Grande | 1,51 | 0,52 | 0,70 | 1,42 | 4,49 |
| Belém | 4,23 | 0,93 | 0,49 | 1,72 | 4,07 |
| Vitória | 1,78 | 0,58 | 0,39 | 1,25 | 4,89 |
| Belo Horizonte | 10,86 | 0,51 | 0,29 | 1,52 | 4,61 |
| Goiânia | 3,59 | 0,87 | 0,12 | 0,82 | 3,84 |
| Brasil | 100,00 | 0,43 | 0,75 | 1,51 | 4,58 |
O IPCA é calculado pelo IBGE desde 1980, se refere às famílias com rendimento monetário de 01 a 40 salários mínimos, qualquer que seja a fonte, e abrange dez regiões metropolitanas do país, além dos municípios de Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju e de Brasília. Para o cálculo do índice do mês foram comparados os preços coletados no período de 27 de fevereiro a 29 de março de 2019 (referência) com os preços vigentes no período de 30 de janeiro a 26 de fevereiro de 2019 (base).
INPC em março foi de 0,77%
O Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor - INPC do mês de março apresentou variação de 0,77%, 0,23 p.p. acima da taxa de 0,54% registrada em fevereiro. Foi a maior taxa para um mês de março desde março de 2015 (1,51%). O acumulado no ano foi para 1,68%, o maior para o período desde 2016 (2,93%). O acumulado dos últimos doze meses foi para 4,67%, contra 3,94% nos 12 meses imediatamente anteriores. Em março de 2018, a taxa foi de 0,07%.
Os produtos alimentícios tiveram alta de 1,50% em março, contra 0,94% em fevereiro. O agrupamento dos não alimentícios foi para 0,45%, contra 0,37% em fevereiro.
Regionalmente, conforme mostra a tabela a seguir, o menor índice foi em Goiânia (0,32%), em razão das quedas nos preços do etanol (-4,37%) e da gasolina (-2,47%). O maior índice ficou com o município de São Luís (1,39%), influenciado, principalmente, pela taxa de água e esgoto (22,29%), que reproduz o reajuste médio de 22,29%, em vigor desde 09 de fevereiro, ainda não apropriado nos índices, e pelo tomate (27,20%).
| INPC - Variação por regiões - mensal e acumulada em 12 meses | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Região | Peso Regional (%) | Variação (%) | Variação Acumulada (%) | ||
| Fevereiro | Março | Ano | 12 meses | ||
| São Luís | 3,11 | 0,52 | 1,39 | 2,09 | 4,50 |
| Porto Alegre | 7,38 | 0,05 | 1,27 | 1,40 | 5,29 |
| Aracaju | 1,29 | 0,63 | 1,08 | 2,18 | 4,55 |
| Fortaleza | 5,42 | 0,75 | 1,02 | 2,04 | 4,23 |
| Recife | 5,88 | 0,60 | 0,99 | 1,99 | 4,60 |
| Curitiba | 7,29 | 0,29 | 0,92 | 1,19 | 4,32 |
| Rio de Janeiro | 9,51 | 0,72 | 0,91 | 1,96 | 4,93 |
| Salvador | 8,75 | 0,22 | 0,75 | 1,21 | 4,68 |
| Brasília | 1,88 | 0,07 | 0,72 | 0,90 | 3,10 |
| São Paulo | 24,24 | 0,53 | 0,70 | 1,79 | 4,79 |
| Campo Grande | 1,64 | 0,65 | 0,67 | 1,62 | 4,85 |
| Rio Branco | 0,59 | 1,17 | 0,66 | 1,71 | 5,50 |
| Vitória | 1,83 | 1,04 | 0,53 | 1,89 | 5,46 |
| Belém | 6,44 | 0,97 | 0,45 | 1,78 | 3,63 |
| Belo Horizonte | 10,60 | 0,58 | 0,35 | 1,78 | 4,90 |
| Goiânia | 4,15 | 0,88 | 0,32 | 1,11 | 4,19 |
| Brasil | 100,00 | 0,54 | 0,77 | 1,68 | 4,67 |
Para o cálculo do índice do mês foram comparados os preços coletados no período de 27 de fevereiro a 29 de março de 2019 (referência) com os preços vigentes no período de 30 de janeiro a 26 de fevereiro de 2019 (base).
O INPC é calculado pelo IBGE desde 1979, se refere às famílias com rendimento monetário de 01 a 05 salários mínimos, sendo o chefe assalariado, e abrange dez regiões metropolitanas do país, além dos municípios de Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju e de Brasília.
Inflação acelera e chega a 0,75% em março, a maior para o mês desde 2015
O preço das frutas subiu 4,26% em março, de acordo com o IPCA - Foto: Luiz Agner/IBGE
Influenciada pela alta nos preços dos alimentos e dos transportes, a inflação chegou a 0,75% em março, segundo o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA), divulgado hoje pelo IBGE. Essa foi a maior taxa para um mês de março desde 2015, quando chegou a 1,32%. Com isso, o índice acumula altas de 1,51% no primeiro trimestre do ano e de 4,58% nos últimos 12 meses.
IPCA - Variação mensal (%)
Clique e arraste para zoom
Fonte: IBGE - Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo
A aceleração da inflação no mês foi determinada pelas altas de 1,37% no grupo Alimentação e bebidas e de 1,44% nos Transportes. Juntos, esses grupos responderam por 80% do índice do mês. Todos os grupos pesquisados no IPCA subiram de preço, exceto Comunicação, que com -0,22% foi o único com deflação.
O preço dos alimentos subiu pressionado pelo tomate (31,84%), pela batata-inglesa (21,11%), pelo feijão-carioca (12,93%) e pelas frutas (4,26%). Segundo o gerente da pesquisa, Fernando Gonçalves, em razão de problemas na safra e dos estoques baixos, o preço do feijão carioca mais que dobrou no primeiro trimestre, a maior alta desde o Pano Real para esse período. “São produtos importantes na mesa do brasileiro e que têm grande peso no índice de inflação”, ressalta Fernando Gonçalves.
Já o grupo Transportes, após deflação de 0,34% em fevereiro, acelerou 1,44% em março, devido à alta de 3,49% nos combustíveis. O resultado foi influenciado pelo aumento no preço da gasolina (2,88%) e do etanol (7,02%). Outras contribuições para a taxa positiva no grupo Transportes vieram do aumento nos preços nas passagens aéreas (7,29%) e ônibus urbanos (0,90%).
“O índice de março reflete em parte o aumento de 10,82% no preço da gasolina na refinaria, concedido pela Petrobrás entre 27 de fevereiro e 29 de março, período de coleta do IPCA”, explica Gonçalves.
DOCUMENTO: https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/agencia-sala-de-imprensa/2013-agencia-de-noticias/releases/24183-ipca-foi-de-0-75-em-marco-de-2019
FGV. IBRE. 10/04/19. Índices Gerais de Preços. IPC-3i. Inflação entre idosos cresce e fica acima da taxa acumulada pelo IPC-BR
O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor da Terceira Idade (IPC-3i), que mede a variação da cesta de consumo de famílias majoritariamente compostas por indivíduos com mais de 60 anos de idade, registrou no primeiro trimestre de 2019, variação de 1,49%. Em 12 meses, o IPC-3i acumula alta de 5,37%. Com este resultado, a variação do indicador ficou acima da taxa acumulada pelo IPC-BR, que foi de 4,88%, no mesmo período.
Na passagem do quarto trimestre de 2018 para o primeiro trimestre de 2019, a taxa do IPC-3i registrou acréscimo de 0,69 ponto percentual, passando de 0,80% para 1,49%. Quatro das oito classes de despesa componentes do índice registraram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação. A principal contribuição partiu do grupo Habitação, cuja taxa passou de -0,89% para 1,46%. O item que mais influenciou o comportamento desta classe de despesa foi tarifa de eletricidade residencial, que variou 3,09%, no primeiro trimestre, ante -8,12%, no anterior.
Contribuíram também para o acréscimo da taxa do IPC-3i os grupos: Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (1,14% para 1,28%), Transportes (-0,20% para 0,14%) e Despesas Diversas (0,31% para 0,69%). Para cada uma destas classes de despesa, vale citar o comportamento dos itens: plano e seguro de saúde (1,99% para 1,91%), gasolina (-4,92% para -1,32%) e cartório (0,23% para 3,62%).
Em contrapartida, os grupos Educação, Leitura e Recreação (2,85% para 1,09%), Vestuário (1,46% para -0,32%) e Comunicação (0,22% para 0,17%) apresentaram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação. Nestas classes de despesa, os maiores recuos foram observados nas taxas dos seguintes itens: passagem aérea (30,61% para -11,18%), roupas (1,73% para -0,18%) e tarifa de telefone residencial (-0,02% para -0,73%).
O grupo Alimentação repetiu a taxa de variação de 3,49% registrada na última apuração. As principais influências partiram dos itens: laticínios (-6,91% para 1,56%), em sentido ascendente, e hortaliças e legumes (52,48% para 21,69%), em sentido descendente.
DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/navegacao-superior/noticias/noticias-1456.htm
FGV. IBRE. 10/04/19. Índices Gerais de Preços. IGP-M Primeiro Decêndio. IGP-M varia 0,62% na 1ª prévia de abril
O Índice Geral de Preços - Mercado (IGP-M) subiu 0,62% no primeiro decêndio de abril, registrando variação abaixo da apurada no mesmo período de março, quando o índice havia variado 0,71%.
O Índice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo (IPA) variou 0,65% no primeiro decêndio de abril. No mesmo período do mês de março, o índice havia subido 0,90%. Na análise por estágios de processamento, os preços dos Bens Finais variaram 0,64% em abril, ante 1,25% em março. A principal contribuição para este recuo partiu do subgrupo alimentos in natura, cuja taxa passou de 10,36% para -1,32%. O índice correspondente aos Bens Intermediários variou 0,11% no primeiro decêndio de abril, contra 0,27% no mês anterior. Contribuiu para o movimento o subgrupo combustíveis e lubrificantes para a produção cuja taxa passou de 5,13% para -0,37%.
O índice referente as Matérias-Primas Brutas subiu 1,30% no primeiro decêndio de abril, contra alta de 1,25% no mês anterior. Contribuíram para a elevação da taxa do grupo os seguintes itens: cana-de-açúcar (-1,45% para 2,75%), mandioca (aipim) (1,45% para 5,25%) e leite in natura (1,29% para 2,65%). Em sentido oposto, vale citar milho (em grão) (3,75% para -2,78%), laranja (7,53% para -0,25%) e soja (em grão) (1,85% para 1,06%).
O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) variou 0,65% no primeiro decêndio de abril, ante 0,47% no mês anterior. Cinco das oito classes de despesa componentes do índice registraram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação, com destaque para o grupo Transportes (0,17% para 1,38%). Nesta classe de despesa, vale mencionar o comportamento do item gasolina, cuja taxa passou de -0,06% para 4,10%.
Também foram computados acréscimo nas taxas de variação dos grupos Habitação (0,18% para 0,50%), Vestuário (0,66% para 1,29%), Comunicação (-0,01% para 0,21%) e Despesas Diversas (0,08% para 0,15%). Nestas classes de despesa, as maiores influências observadas partiram dos seguintes itens: tarifa de eletricidade residencial (0,47% para 1,86%), roupas (0,69% para 2,13%), pacotes de telefonia fixa e internet (0,00% para 0,58%) e cigarros (-0,52% para 0,00%).
Em contrapartida, os grupos Alimentação (0,95% para 0,69%), Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,52% para 0,09%) e Educação, Leitura e Recreação (0,63% para 0,38%) apresentaram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação. Nestas classes de despesa, vale mencionar o comportamento dos itens restaurantes (1,06% para 0,30%), artigos de higiene e cuidado pessoal (1,32% para -0,81%) e show musical (7,53% para 3,77%).
O Índice Nacional de Custo da Construção (INCC) subiu 0,36% no primeiro decêndio de abril, taxa superior a apurada no mês anterior, quando o índice havia variado 0,02%. Os três componentes do INCC registraram as seguintes taxas na passagem do primeiro decêndio de março para o primeiro decêndio de abril: Materiais e Equipamentos (-0,03% para 0,54%), Serviços (0,29% para 0,25%) e Mão de Obra (0,01% para 0,25%).
DOCUMENTO: https://portalibre.fgv.br/navegacao-superior/noticias/noticias-1457.htm
MERCADO DE IMÓVEIS
IBGE. 10/04/2019. Índice Nacional da Construção Civil varia 0,52% em março
O Índice Nacional da Construção Civil (Sinapi), calculado pelo IBGE, subiu 0,52% em março, ficando 0,31 ponto percentual acima da taxa de fevereiro (0,21%). O acumulado em 12 meses ficou em 4,86%, acima dos 4,47% registrados nos 12 meses imediatamente anteriores. Em março de 2018, o índice foi 0,14%. A publicação e o material de apoio estão à direita desta página.
O custo nacional da construção, por metro quadrado, que em fevereiro fechou em R$ 1.120,99, subiu para R$ 1.126,82 em março, sendo R$ 588,23 relativos aos materiais e R$ 538,59 à mão de obra.
A parcela dos materiais subiu 0,79%, com alta de 0,24 ponto percentual em relação ao mês anterior (0,55%) e de 0,30 ponto percentual frente a março de 2018 (0,54%).
O valor da mão de obra subiu 0,23%, ficando 0,38 ponto percentual acima do mês anterior (-0,15%) e 0,45 ponto percentual acima de março de 2018 (-0,22%).
O primeiro trimestre do ano fechou em 1,54% (materiais) e 0,76% (mão de obra), sendo que os acumulados em doze meses ficaram em 6,30% (materiais) e 3,36% (mão de obra).
Região Sul tem maior variação mensal
A Região Sul, com 0,82%, e taxas positivas em todos os seus estados, ficou com a maior variação regional em março. As demais regiões apresentaram os seguintes resultados: 0,42% (Norte), 0,49% (Nordeste), 0,57% (Sudeste) e 0,10% (Centro-Oeste).
Os custos regionais, por metro quadrado, foram: R$ 1.129,10 (Norte); R$ 1.045,73 (Nordeste); R$ 1.177,76 (Sudeste); R$ 1.172,08 (Sul) e R$ 1.129,42 (Centro-Oeste).
Bahia registra a maior alta
A Bahia, com 1,73%, foi o estado que apresentou a maior variação mensal, em decorrência de pressão exercida pelo reajuste salarial do acordo coletivo.
O SINAPI, criado em 1969, tem como objetivo a produção de informações de custos e índices de forma sistematizada e com abrangência nacional, visando a elaboração e avaliação de orçamentos, como também acompanhamento de custos.
SISTEMA NACIONAL DE PESQUISA DE CUSTOS E ÍNDICES DA CONSTRUÇÃO CIVIL
Março/2019 considerando a desoneração da folha de pagamento de empresas do setor
da construção civil
Março/2019 considerando a desoneração da folha de pagamento de empresas do setor
da construção civil
| ÁREAS GEOGRÁFICAS | CUSTOS MÉDIOS | NÚMEROS ÍNDICES | VARIAÇÕES PERCENTUAIS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R$/m2 | JUN/94=100 | MENSAL | NO ANO | 12 MESES | |
| BRASIL | 1126,82 | 563,92 | 0,52 | 1,15 | 4,86 |
| REGIÃO NORTE | 1129,10 | 562,63 | 0,42 | 0,63 | 5,68 |
| Rondônia | 1164,28 | 649,16 | 0,08 | 0,83 | 4,52 |
| Acre | 1240,64 | 658,60 | 0,34 | 0,57 | 5,55 |
| Amazonas | 1090,43 | 533,92 | 0,41 | 0,57 | 5,67 |
| Roraima | 1185,47 | 492,26 | 0,77 | 0,94 | 6,39 |
| Pará | 1122,07 | 537,81 | 0,54 | 0,79 | 6,55 |
| Amapá | 1086,86 | 527,95 | 0,06 | -0,16 | 3,29 |
| Tocantins | 1164,57 | 612,32 | 0,32 | 0,28 | 3,83 |
| REGIÃO NORDESTE | 1045,73 | 564,88 | 0,49 | 0,80 | 4,34 |
| Maranhão | 1067,04 | 562,12 | -0,07 | -0,06 | 4,10 |
| Piauí | 1078,05 | 716,37 | 0,14 | 2,16 | 3,79 |
| Ceará | 1038,32 | 599,70 | -0,36 | 0,28 | 3,31 |
| Rio Grande do Norte | 1038,73 | 523,56 | 0,39 | 1,36 | 4,68 |
| Paraíba | 1086,51 | 600,86 | -0,04 | 0,13 | 4,40 |
| Pernambuco | 1014,34 | 542,36 | 0,18 | 0,08 | 2,74 |
| Alagoas | 1030,68 | 515,01 | 0,49 | 0,83 | 3,63 |
| Sergipe | 982,79 | 522,26 | 0,03 | 1,38 | 4,65 |
| Bahia | 1053,17 | 557,44 | 1,73 | 1,77 | 6,19 |
| REGIÃO SUDESTE | 1177,76 | 563,87 | 0,57 | 1,69 | 5,13 |
| Minas Gerais | 1077,67 | 593,05 | 0,66 | 3,45 | 7,49 |
| Espírito Santo | 1020,92 | 566,23 | 0,43 | 0,75 | 4,25 |
| Rio de Janeiro | 1244,18 | 567,01 | 0,49 | 1,57 | 4,18 |
| São Paulo | 1223,92 | 552,80 | 0,56 | 0,88 | 4,31 |
| REGIÃO SUL | 1172,08 | 560,50 | 0,82 | 1,26 | 5,53 |
| Paraná | 1144,64 | 547,37 | 0,92 | 1,13 | 5,97 |
| Santa Catarina | 1268,14 | 686,92 | 0,95 | 1,62 | 4,62 |
| Rio Grande do Sul | 1125,57 | 510,86 | 0,52 | 1,12 | 5,79 |
| REGIÃO CENTRO-OESTE | 1129,42 | 576,61 | 0,10 | 0,46 | 3,92 |
| Mato Grosso do Sul | 1091,50 | 513,32 | -0,32 | -0,10 | 2,65 |
| Mato Grosso | 1135,98 | 648,15 | 0,17 | 0,87 | 5,67 |
| Goiás | 1103,82 | 583,11 | 0,26 | 0,65 | 2,71 |
| Distrito Federal | 1182,39 | 522,14 | 0,05 | 0,02 | 4,12 |
| FONTE: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços. Nota: Estes resultados são calculados mensalmente pelo IBGE através de convênio com a CAIXA – Caixa Econômica Federal | |||||
SISTEMA NACIONAL DE PESQUISA DE CUSTOS E ÍNDICES DA CONSTRUÇÃO CIVIL Março/2019 não considerando a desoneração da folha de pagamento de empresas do setor
da construção civil
da construção civil
| ÁREAS GEOGRÁFICAS | CUSTOS MÉDIOS | NÚMEROS ÍNDICES | VARIAÇÕES PERCENTUAIS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R$/m2 | JUN/94=100 | MENSAL | NO ANO | 12 MESES | |
| BRASIL | 617,54 | 974,70 | 0,21 | 2,79 | 2,79 |
| REGIÃO NORTE | 575,75 | 928,31 | 0,03 | 2,70 | 2,70 |
| Rondônia | 595,22 | 1360,14 | 0,00 | 3,98 | 3,98 |
| Acre | 630,23 | 1297,70 | 0,00 | 3,49 | 3,49 |
| Amazonas | 565,27 | 852,54 | 0,11 | 5,38 | 5,38 |
| Roraima | 670,23 | 819,04 | -0,34 | 4,95 | 4,95 |
| Pará | 560,42 | 779,81 | 0,00 | 0,97 | 0,97 |
| Amapá | 544,50 | 942,94 | 0,30 | 0,79 | 0,79 |
| Tocantins | 603,94 | 1085,59 | 0,00 | 2,83 | 2,83 |
| REGIÃO NORDESTE | 543,66 | 1051,83 | 0,87 | 2,84 | 2,84 |
| Maranhão | 542,98 | 1343,62 | 0,00 | 2,76 | 2,76 |
| Piauí | 542,77 | 1429,61 | 0,00 | 4,13 | 4,13 |
| Ceará | 510,82 | 1156,36 | 0,00 | 1,16 | 1,16 |
| Rio Grande do Norte | 530,32 | 987,18 | 0,00 | 1,74 | 1,74 |
| Paraíba | 538,95 | 1052,43 | 0,00 | 0,04 | 0,04 |
| Pernambuco | 531,75 | 1062,44 | -0,28 | 1,24 | 1,24 |
| Alagoas | 522,17 | 833,44 | 0,00 | 2,50 | 2,50 |
| Sergipe | 509,09 | 1024,29 | -0,02 | 3,09 | 3,09 |
| Bahia | 582,26 | 951,54 | 3,18 | 5,47 | 5,47 |
| REGIÃO SUDESTE | 679,03 | 947,92 | -0,09 | 2,79 | 2,79 |
| Minas Gerais | 592,25 | 1019,24 | 0,00 | 7,08 | 7,08 |
| Espírito Santo | 556,33 | 1072,69 | -0,14 | 1,47 | 1,47 |
| Rio de Janeiro | 731,70 | 1000,52 | 0,00 | 1,60 | 1,60 |
| São Paulo | 719,93 | 911,35 | -0,17 | 1,34 | 1,34 |
| REGIÃO SUL | 675,60 | 988,54 | 0,00 | 3,27 | 3,27 |
| Paraná | 687,80 | 916,57 | 0,00 | 3,15 | 3,15 |
| Santa Catarina | 760,02 | 1264,34 | 0,00 | 2,75 | 2,75 |
| Rio Grande do Sul | 573,75 | 928,90 | 0,00 | 4,18 | 4,18 |
| REGIÃO CENTRO-OESTE | 578,05 | 954,20 | 0,08 | 2,16 | 2,16 |
| Mato Grosso do Sul | 560,88 | 863,09 | 0,00 | 2,48 | 2,48 |
| Mato Grosso | 600,68 | 1029,50 | 0,00 | 3,11 | 3,11 |
| Goiás | 555,90 | 1009,88 | 0,00 | 1,08 | 1,08 |
| Distrito Federal | 590,51 | 829,11 | 0,35 | 2,07 | 2,07 |
| FONTE: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços. Nota: Estes resultados são calculados mensalmente pelo IBGE através de convênio com a CAIXA – Caixa Econômica Federal | |||||
Custos da construção civil sobem 0,52% em março. Custos da construção acumulam alta de 1,15% no primeiro trimestre
O Índice Nacional da Construção Civil (Sinapi) aumentou 0,52% em março, na comparação com o mês anterior, e ficou acima dos 0,21% em fevereiro. O índice, divulgado hoje pelo IBGE, acumula altas de 1,15% no primeiro trimestre e de 4,86% nos últimos 12 meses.
Com esse crescimento, o custo por metro quadrado do setor subiu para R$ 1.126,82, sendo R$ 588,23 relativos aos materiais, com alta de 0,79%, e R$ 538,59 referentes à mão de obra, com aumento de 0,23%. De acordo com o gerente da pesquisa, Augusto Oliveira, a alta dos materiais exerceu maior pressão no resultado.
“Apesar das variações positivas nos dois segmentos, os materiais estão com participação maior que a mão de obra, que tem mais influência quando ocorrem dissídios coletivos”, explica o gerente. É o caso da Bahia, que teve a maior alta nos custos da construção entre os estados, de 1,73%, puxada pelo reajuste salarial promovido por acordo coletivo.
O Sul do país teve a maior alta entre as grandes regiões, de 0,82%, atingindo R$ 1.172,08 por metro quadrado. O crescimento foi influenciado pelos aumentos nos custos da construção de Paraná e Santa Catarina, puxados pelos materiais, e Rio Grande do Sul, com alta na mão de obra.
Nas demais grandes regiões, os custos do setor aumentaram 0,57% no Sudeste (R$ 1.177,76), 0,49% no Nordeste (R$ 1.045,73), 0,42% no Norte (R$ 1.129,10) e 0,10% no Centro-Oeste (R$ 1.129,42).
DOCUMENTO: https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/agencia-sala-de-imprensa/2013-agencia-de-noticias/releases/24181-indice-nacional-da-construcao-civil-varia-0-52-em-marco
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LGCJ.:
