US ECONOMICS

U.S. Department of State. January 5, 2018. Secretary's Remarks: Interview With Elise Labott of CNN. Interview. Rex W. Tillerson, Secretary of State. Washington, DC

QUESTION: Secretary Tillerson, thanks so much for joining us, and Happy New Year.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Happy New Year to you and to all the Americans out there as well. It’s a pleasure.

QUESTION: Let’s start with North Korea. There was big news last night about the North and South arranging talks for next week, North Korea now coming to the table. Is that an opening maybe for talks with the U.S. or nuclear talks?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, I think it’s too early to tell. We need to wait and see what the outcome of their talks are. The President had a – President Trump had a good call with President Moon yesterday morning, which I participated in, and their intent is to talk about the Olympics – obviously, a very important upcoming event for South Korea – and the potential participation of North Korea in those Olympics. So our understanding is that’s the content of the meeting. So I think it’s a little early to draw any conclusions.

QUESTION: But it could be a positive sign maybe that North Korea wants to engage a little bit.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, we’ll see. We’ll see. Perhaps. I know some are speculating that this may be their first effort to open a channel. But as you know, we’ve had channels open to North Korea for some time, and so they do know how to reach us when – if and when they’re ready to engage with us as well.

QUESTION: Well, maybe you’ll be next.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: We’ll see.

QUESTION: If you could explain a little bit about what the U.S. policy is on North Korea, because I think Americans are a little bit confused. Do the North Koreans have to give up their nuclear program before committing to talks?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Our policy is the complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization --

QUESTION: Right.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: -- of the Korean Peninsula. That is a policy that is commonly held by everyone in the region as well.

QUESTION: Right.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: The Chinese have that as a stated policy. Russia has it as a stated policy. So regionally, all of the countries in the neighboring area, as well as the international community, are well aligned on the policy. How we achieve the ultimate endpoint, the final fully – full denuclearization, the verification of that, and the irreversibility of it, clearly that’s going to take some time. So how we begin the talks is yet to be determined, but we clearly need a signal from North Korea that they understand these talks must lead to that conclusion. The pathway of how you get there, that is the nature of the negotiation. There’ll be some give and take to achieve those objectives. So that’s – that objective has never changed.

QUESTION: Because as you said, it’s unrealistic for them to kind of sit down and say, “We’re ready to do it,” but it sounds like they’d have to show some willingness, but then the mechanics of that are able to be worked out.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: We have to have the shared view that that is the reason we’re talking, that’s the purpose of these talks, and it is through those talks that North Korea actually can chart the way for themselves of a more secure future, a more prosperous future for their people as well. So there are very positive outcomes to these talks for North Korea, as there will be positive outcomes for the security of the entire region. That is the nature of the negotiations.

QUESTION: Do you think – a lot has been made about the President’s tweet on the nuclear button, but now North Korea is talking with South Korea. Do you think that tough rhetoric has worked here?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: I think the rhetoric that North Korea understands is while it is our objective – and the President has been very clear – to achieve a denuclearization through diplomatic efforts, those diplomatic efforts are backed by a strong military option if necessary. That is not the first choice, and the President has been clear that’s not his first choice. But it is important that North Korea, as well as other regional players, understand how high the stakes are in an effort to ensure our diplomatic efforts are fully supported. And I think to date, the diplomatic efforts have been supported very well in the international community. If you look at the three UN Security Council resolutions on sanctions, the participation in those sanctions and a number of countries going well beyond the Security Council resolutions and imposing unilateral actions on their own, both economic as well as diplomatic, I think it is a recognition that the President has demonstrated to the world how high the stakes are. That’s why we must achieve a diplomatic outcome.

But the North Koreans have to understand that, and they have to understand that the penalties to them will continue and will only grow more severe in terms of sanctions actions and other actions until they do get on a pathway to achieve that objective that the entire world hopes to achieve.

QUESTION: So it sounds like this kind of good cap, bad cop, if you will – hold out the prospect of talks but if talks don’t work, military action – that might be the formula that you and the President will continue.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: I’m going to let you characterize it that way. I’m not going to necessarily show all of our cards.

QUESTION: Let’s go to Iran. You’ve said that you want to support, quote, elements in the country that will lead to a peaceful transition of government. That sounds like regime change.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, I think the Iranian people have suffered under this regime, the regime that has – it is a revolutionary government. They describe themselves as a revolutionary government. And the Iranian people have suffered under this regime. Very little good has happened for the Iranian people. Ever since this regime has taken power, they have suffered under economic sanctions because of this regime’s destabilizing activities in the region.

At some point, people will decide this is not how they want to live any longer, but we always support a peaceful transition of power. We do not support violent transitions of power, but we do support peaceful transitions of power, and we’ve seen those expressions in years past with the large demonstrations at the elections in 2009, the demonstrations that we see in the streets today. We are supportive of the Iranian people achieving their aspirations for a better quality of life, for greater freedom. We believe they deserve that, but it will be up to the Iranian people to manage that peaceful transition. We support that.

QUESTION: How do you help them facilitate that?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: I think by amplifying their voices. When they go to the street, we listen to why they are there, what are their concerns, and where there are legitimate concerns and we agree that their concerns are legitimate, we should support the expression of those. And that’s what the President has done, the White House, the Vice President, myself here at the State Department, through statements we’ve made, is to give their voice amplification. We know the regime listens to the world, and that’s why we’ve been working diligently with others in the world, including our European partners, to also amplify these voices within the country to say to the regime, you must address these concerns of these people and you should be address it by beginning a process of reform.

QUESTION: How does that factor into your decision on sanctions? Do you support waiving sanctions at this next certification?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, we’ve been very clear on our policy on Iran. The prior administration focused all of the Iranian policy around the nuclear deal, the JCPOA. Our policy is much broader. We look at the totality of Iran’s actions and behaviors. So the decisions around waiving sanctions relative to the nuclear agreement and decisions to take in terms of imposing additional sanctions on Iran that are unrelated to the nuclear agreement are – there’s a broad array when you talk about sanctions. And I think --

QUESTION: So non-nuclear sanctions, you’re talking about.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, I think some people get confused --

QUESTION: Yeah.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: -- sometimes, and it’s understandable. But Iran’s support for the Houthis in Yemen, their support for destabilization efforts in Syria, the funding of militias, the sending of foreign fighters, arming terrorist organizations in the region, Lebanese Hizballah – that has to be dealt with. And our sanctions are targeted at Iran’s destabilizing activities within the region while still maintaining all our efforts to ensure Iran never acquires nuclear weapons.

So there are sanctions regimes built around both of those efforts. And what the President has done with his policies, is he’s now looked at Iran in its totality and said Iran has to be held to account in both of these areas.

QUESTION: So it sounds like maybe, even if you certify on the nuclear issue, more non-nuclear sanctions could be coming.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: They will be coming. There were non-nuclear sanctions announced yesterday by the Treasury Department in response to Iran’s missile – ballistic missile development programs, which are in violation of earlier agreements.

QUESTION: And more to come?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: In all likelihood, unless Iran alters its behavior. And again, this is the objective of the sanctions, is to put enough pressure on these governments that they decide the price, the cost of what they’re doing, is too high.

QUESTION: Well, and also the Revolutionary Guard’s grip on the economy, right? And that’s really what you’re trying to --

SECRETARY TILLERSON: That’s a lot of what the demonstrations in the streets were about, is young people and others saying, “There’s too much of our economy and our wealth of our country going to support these destabilizing activities of the IRGC, as well as the IRGC’s involvement in our economy. We’re not seeing enough of the benefit. The elites are seeing the benefit.”

QUESTION: Let’s talk about Russia. You came in, the President wanted a better relationship. It’s been a tough year. What do you see the flashpoints next year?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, it has been a difficult year with Russia. We clearly – and I’ve said clearly, the President’s stated clearly – our two nations should have a more productive relationship. Today, it’s very strained, for all the reasons that I think the American people well understand. Having said that, we have maintained a constant engagement with Russia, very active engagement. The President’s had two face-to-face meetings with President Putin, and he’s had phone calls with him as well. I have a very active line of communication, as does DOD, with Russian counterparts.

QUESTION: But I hear you’re very – when you’re with Foreign Minister Lavrov, you’re pretty tough.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, we’re – he’s pretty tough, and I’m pretty tough, but I think this is – it’s important if we’re going to deal with these tough issues, we have to be very open and candid and frank with one another about what both of us – and I think Foreign Minister Lavrov is as committed to trying to improve this relationship as I am. These are difficult issues, and we have made it clear that the keystone is really Ukraine.

QUESTION: Right.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: We have to make progress in Ukraine. Having said that, we have found areas of cooperation in Syria that have led to the near defeat of ISIS in Syria. The U.S., along with the Iraqi forces, has completely defeated ISIS in Iraq. And now, it’s how do we stabilize and chart the path forward for a stable Syria so that it does not present opportunities for ISIS to re-emerge, or other terrorist organizations.

QUESTION: President Trump said that this whole Russia investigation has been a kind of drag on your foreign policy, that it hurts you with allies, that there is a lot of confusion. Has – how has that impacted your dealings with world leaders in terms of this cloud, if you will?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: It has had no impact. And I say that --

QUESTION: Really?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: It’s had none. It never comes up in our conversations or in my bilats or in my dialogues with world leaders elsewhere. The domestic issues in – around the Russia involvement in our elections are not part of our dialogue elsewhere. I think the rest of the world recognizes it is a domestic issue, it’s an important one. The Russians and we talk about it, and we have said to them, look, it’s a problem.

QUESTION: Do you think they’re going to try to meddle in 2018?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: I don’t know. I hope they don’t.

QUESTION: Do you have evidence that they are?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: We have none yet. But we do know that Russia has involved themselves in other elections --

QUESTION: Right.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: -- in Europe and elsewhere. So it’s – it is a message we convey to the Russians. The way I convey it is I don’t understand why you do this. I don’t understand what you think you’re getting for this. Because it’s not evident to me as to how is this benefiting you --

QUESTION: Well, chaos --

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, it’s --

QUESTION: Chaos in the United States benefits them.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: How is it damaging – but it damages Russia, because we’re not making progress --

QUESTION: Sure.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: -- and they’re not making progress with others. So we try to stay focused on the really big issues between us, which is Syria and the situation there, the situation in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, and creating stability in Eastern Europe, and recognize what Russia’s concerns are. And we have very important talks coming up on the START Treaty and the INF Treaty, as well.

QUESTION: You’ve said your redesign project is going to be the most important thing that you do here in terms of your legacy; more important than ending the conflicts in Syria or peace in North Korea. You’re a year in now. Do you still feel that way?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: I think that was taken a bit out of context. It was – my redesign for the State Department, I think, is the most important thing I can do for the State Department --

QUESTION: For the long term and --

SECRETARY TILLERSON: -- and I think it will have a very long-lasting impact on the effectiveness of the State Department for decades to come. The specific challenges of the day are clearly our highest priority.

QUESTION: Right.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Achieving a denuclearized North Korea, defeating terrorism and ISIS around the world, improving the Russian relationship, improving the relationship with China, and charting the way – those are all high-priority – but what will have a lasting effect for – because there will be other challenges that confront --

QUESTION: Right.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: -- the State Department in the future. How do we become more effective, more capable, more nimble? To use the intellectual capacity of the people in this department, what we really want to unleash – that’s what we produce here is ideas, we produce plans, we produce policies, and then we implement them. How do we unleash that human talent? And today, that human talent carries a lot of bags and weight around with it that gets in their way of being effective. That will have a very long-lasting effect here.

QUESTION: Look, there’s a lot of unease in this building. You’ve seen it and you’ve seen the op-eds – Ryan Crocker for instance, star diplomat, him and Nick Burns, who have served in both administrations saying that some of the budget cuts, some of the leadership that you’ve put in the department is going to hamper diplomacy for years to come. How do you turn that around – perception around?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, first, I don’t agree with their assessment. We’ll see where our budgets ultimately end up, but in my engagements with OMB as well as my engagements with authorizers on the Hill, I’ve made the point that the State Department’s budget – when we came to the State Department in February, we had a $55 billion budget, all-time high. It was up from what – traditionally, if you look back eight to ten years ago, we operated at around 37, 38, 39 billion dollars. It is very hard to execute a $55 billion budget and execute it well. And so --

QUESTION: Let me just stop you --

SECRETARY TILLERSON: And so part of this is what are our policy objectives, what does the Congress want us to achieve, and then what are the resources that are necessary to achieve that both in terms of dollars, but also human capability. And that’s what I’ve focused on is how do we achieve the objectives that the President wants to achieve, and then we understand we have an equal branch of government in the Congress that have objectives they want to achieve. How do we accommodate all that and then how do we resource it? That’s what’s important for me to focus on.

QUESTION: If – we’re surprised that we’re having this conversation, because if you read the papers, you should be gone by now. What is with these rumors about you leaving? How long are you planning to stay, or are you planning to stick around for a while?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: I had a – we had a very productive 2017. And the 11 months I was here was an extraordinarily challenging period, because when the President came into office we had so many policies that the President ran on in his campaign and made clear to the American people he intends to pivot those policies in a different direction. It takes a lot of effort to do that in that first year so that your partners, your allies, and your adversaries understand you’ve moved.

We had a very successful, in my view, year of 2017 pivoting our policies and helping our partners understand those policies. We’re now into the implementation and execution against those policies. I think we’re going to have a very productive 2018. Again, the State Department gets stronger every day understanding what we’re trying to do, and I look forward to having a very, very successful 2018.

QUESTION: For the whole year?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: I intend to be here for the whole year.

QUESTION: I just – I mean, look, the President said these rumors are fake news. Why are these – these rumors are persisting. Is it a Washington thing?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: You tell me.

QUESTION: I don’t know.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: You tell me.

QUESTION: Has the President given you any indication that you won’t be around for a while?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: None.

QUESTION: None so – whatsoever?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: None whatsoever.

QUESTION: Look, I’m sure you’ve heard about this new book out there about the White House. It’s the talk of the town. It describes a President whose foreign policy is uninformed, that he’s not engaged, that’s he not interested, that he gets up and leaves meetings with world leaders because he’s bored. You’re at the White House several times a week. Is that your experience?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: I think among all the cabinet secretaries I probably have spent more time with the President than perhaps Secretary of Defense Mattis, who spends a lot of time with him as well. I have never seen the President leave a meeting with a foreign leader. He is very engaged in these meetings. And in our policy deliberations and the meetings of the National Security Council with him, as I said, a big challenge was pivoting policies in a different direction than they were placed when the President took office, from North Korea to the Afghanistan/South Asia policy and Pakistan to the Defeat ISIS campaign. The President prioritized the threats early on, and that’s the sequence within which we have addressed those. And in all those deliberations – and these have been – not been easy deliberations – these are not easy decisions for a president to make – he has been very deliberative. He has listened to the arguments. He argues back, as he should --

QUESTION: The thing is all – all of these --

SECRETARY TILLERSON: He pushes back. And in the end, he makes the decision which we then implement. I would tell you on all of the major policy areas the President has made the right decision on every one of those. How we got there involves a lot of debate, and it should involve a lot of debate. It’s a very – it’s a very healthy exchange with the President and one which I think is important that we continue to have.

MODERATOR: Elise, last question.

QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, can you indulge me for just a couple more questions?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Okay, two questions.

QUESTION: Okay. Look, everybody in the – in this book questions his mental fitness. Do you – have you ever questioned his mental fitness? And describe your relationship with him, because some people would think it’s – through his tweets and stuff, it’s not a very good relationship.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: I’ve never questioned his mental fitness. I have no reason to question his mental fitness. My relationship with him – and it is a developing one, and I remind people and I think it’s well known that he and I did not know one another before he asked me to serve as Secretary of State. So we don’t have a lot of history and past, so part of this us knowing – coming to learn and understand one another.

QUESTION: You’re also two different kinds of people.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, we have different management styles. How I make decisions, how I process information, I have – I have to learn how he takes information in and processes it and makes a decision. And that’s my responsibility. I’m here to serve his presidency, so I’ve had to spend a lot of time understanding how to best communicate with him so I can serve his needs with information. I do think one of my roles is to always give him all sides of the issues even when I know it’s not the side that he really wants to consider. I think it’s part of making good decisions, is that I know he at least has had visibility to all aspects of the decision he’s about to made – make.

And that’s my role as Secretary of State, is to provide him that full 360 visibility of what these decisions mean for our foreign affairs with allies, with partners, and with adversaries. And I think what comes out sometimes, what people see then, is they think that is conflict when it’s not. It’s a normal process of having the president look at all sides and then saying I don’t like that. And that’s healthy. That’s good. I mean, people should feel good about the way decisions are made because it’s not just one of getting in to what you think the President wants, rather helping him see the full array of all the options and what the implications of those are, and then he decides. He’s the Commander-in-Chief. He’s the President. He decides. And then we’ll implement against his decisions.

QUESTION: Just last – last question. You’re a year into this job. What have you learned about yourself? You came in as a CEO, no government experience, working in an unorthodox administration. Reflecting back, what have you learned about yourself, and what might you do differently next year?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: You learn new things about yourself all the time. I was learning things about myself the last year I was chairman and CEO at ExxonMobil. You never stop growing as an individual. So in terms of what I would do different, I’m going to build on my ability to communicate with the President better, my ability to communicate with others better. As I’ve said, it’s something I’ve had to learn is what is effective with this President. He is not typical of presidents of the past. I think that’s well recognized. That’s also why the American people chose him. They were tired of what was being done in the past. They wanted something to change.

So I’ve learned over the past year better how to deal with the President to serve what I think he needs to know so he can make good decisions. And I’ve learned a lot about the interagency process, which was new to me, and that will get better all the time as well. But that is our role here at the State Department. We want to take the foreign policy back to the State Department. It’s created here, it’s developed here, then we take it into the interagency process where it gets a thorough vetting.

QUESTION: It doesn’t seem like it’s been that this year, though.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: No, that is exactly how policies have been developed. Every single one of those policies were germinated here at the State Department and then taken into the interagency process.

QUESTION: Mr. Secretary, thank you very much for joining us and good luck in the next year.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Thank you. I look forward to it.

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRFijYzmytI

FED. January 8, 2018. Consumer Credit November 2017 

In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8-3/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7-1/4 percent.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm

FED. REUTERS. 7 DE JANEIRO DE 2018. ENTREVISTA - Williams, do Fed, vê economia dos EUA forte e fala em alta das taxas de juros
Por Jonathan Spicer e Howard Schneider

FILADÉLFIA (Reuters) - O Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central dos Estados Unidos) deve elevar as taxas de juros três vezes neste ano, uma vez que a economia já forte receberá um novo impulso a partir de cortes de impostos, podendo levar a instituição a agir de maneira mais ou menos agressiva, se necessário, afirmou um representante do banco no sábado.

Em uma entrevista, o presidente do Fed de São Francisco, John Williams, desenhou uma imagem positiva para a maior economia do mundo, que estará operando ou irá operar perto de sua capacidade total nos próximos anos.

Enquanto seus colegas do banco central norte-americano veem o desemprego um pouco além de 4,1 por cento atualmente, Williams prevê que ele cairá para 3,7 por cento este ano, sem qualquer risco de um salto preocupante na inflação.

Os comentários de Williams, um veterano em política econômica em um momento sem precedentes de revisão de lideranças no Fed, sugerem que o banco central continua confiante em sua abordagem após um ano de ajuste gradual e perto dos cortes de 1,5 trilhão de dólares em impostos, aprovados no mês passado.

“Estamos em uma situação muito boa: a economia está indo bem, todos esperam que aumentemos as taxas gradualmente ... E se os dados mudarem, poderemos reagir a isso”, disse Williams, que neste ano tem direito a voto nas políticas do Fed, de acordo com o rodízio promovido pela instituição.

“Não estou preocupado com a inflação disparando de repente”, disse ele à Reuters durante o almoço na conferência da American Economic Association, na Filadélfia.

“Algo como três aumentos de taxas faz sentido para mim” neste ano, acrescentou.

Por Jonathan Spicer e Howard Schneider

________________

ORGANISMS

IMF. 01/08/2018. Fuerza en los números: Una red de protección para prevenir crisis en la economía mundial

Si uno es afortunado, cuando los tiempos se ponen duros, cuenta con un grupo de personas en quien apoyarse para atravesar la crisis. Lo mismo ocurre con los países: una red de protección que los ayude en las malas épocas económicas y financieras puede ser lo que marque la diferencia en la vida de la gente.  

Seguro contra crisis

La red mundial de seguridad financiera debería ayudar a los países de tres maneras: brindando un seguro para ayudar a prevenir las crisis, otorgando financiamiento a los países de concretarse una crisis y dando incentivos para que los países adopten las políticas correctas.

A continuación, figura un desglose rápido de la red de protección, que consta de cuatro capas principales:

• Reservas propias de los países
• Operaciones de canje bilaterales entre dos países
• Acuerdos de financiamiento regionales
• El FMI

Todas estas capas se han expandido durante los últimos 20 años.

La expansión de la red de protección

Durante las últimas décadas ha habido grandes cambios en la estructura de la economía mundial. Por ejemplo, en la actualidad economías de mercados emergentes como China, India y Brasil representan el 60% del PIB mundial. 

Las economías nacionales están más interconectadas que nunca y, por consiguiente, más expuestas a los vaivenes de las oportunidades e infortunios de la economía mundial, y todas necesitan una red de protección cuando la coyuntura económica se deteriora. 

El FMI constantemente aprende, mejora y ajusta con precisión el modo en que puede ayudar a los países, y a través de la red mundial de protección financiera el FMI y muchos otros ayudan a los países a proteger la estabilidad económica mundial. 

Desde el año 2000, las reservas mundiales han aumentado de aproximadamente USD 2 billones a USD 11 billones. En el FMI, los recursos percibidos a través de las cuotas se han duplicado a alrededor de USD 670.000 millones, y desde la crisis los países miembros han puesto a disposición otros cuantiosos fondos prestados que el FMI podría usar de ser necesario.

Por encima de estas capas, algunos países también cuentan con operaciones de canje bilaterales y acuerdos de financiamiento regionales, cuyo papel —en términos relativos— ha aumentado de manera notable durante la última década.



Las operaciones de canje bilaterales entre países comprenden principalmente dos redes diferentes:

• Canjes permanentes ilimitados entre los bancos centrales de algunos de los principales países emisores de monedas de reserva; y
• una extensa red de operaciones de canje entre China y otros países, por un monto de aproximadamente USD 500.000 millones, a fin de respaldar el comercio y la inversión.

Durante la crisis financiera mundial, ciertos países también otorgaron líneas de canje transitorias a otras economías avanzadas y de mercados emergentes, pero estas ya han caducado.

La expansión de los acuerdos de financiamiento regionales no ha sido menos llamativa. Los países han establecido nuevos mecanismos e incrementado los recursos de aquellos en vigor. En particular, los países de la zona del euro establecieron el Mecanismo de Estabilidad Europea —de carácter permanente— con una capacidad de concesión de préstamos de €500.000 millones para facilitar la resolución de crisis.

En Asia, los países convirtieron la Iniciativa de Chiang Mai en un mecanismo multilateral y duplicaron el monto de financiamiento disponible a USD 240.000 millones.

Además, Brasil, Rusia, India y China establecieron un Acuerdo de Reserva Contingente multilateral por un valor de USD 100.000 millones.

Cerrar las brechas

Pese a esta gran expansión, las brechas persisten. En 2016 el FMI analizó el estado y alcance de la red mundial de protección financiera en vigor y preparó un diagnóstico que identifica sus deficiencias.

• Su alcance es desigual, y muchos países —incluidos mercados emergentes clave— no cuentan con un acceso adecuado al financiamiento. El financiamiento también puede ser incierto para los países que se ven ante la necesidad de emplear capas recientemente ampliadas a las que aún no han recurrido.
• La mayoría de las capas carecen de las condiciones adecuadas para la obtención de préstamos, lo que puede reducir los incentivos para la adopción de políticas sólidas por parte de los países.
• Ciertas capas de la red de protección también pueden ser costosas desde el punto de vista financiero o político para los países prestatarios, o para la comunidad mundial como un todo, especialmente en caso de un autoseguro excesivo mediante reservas.

El FMI busca constantemente formas de mejorar el modo en que presta sus servicios a los 189 países miembros, y sus labores a fin de robustecer la red mundial de protección financiera no son la excepción. Teniendo esto presente, hemos procurado mejorar nuestro conjunto de instrumentos de préstamo, incluso mediante el desarrollo de una propuesta para un nuevo canje de liquidez a corto plazo, que podría servir de plan de trabajo para este canje de liquidez en el futuro, siempre y cuando se cuente con suficiente respaldo. 

El FMI también actualizó el reglamento de su Línea de Crédito Flexible y la Línea de Precaución y Liquidez a fin de que el proceso de habilitación de los países sea más previsible y transparente.  

Además, lanzamos un nuevo Instrumento de Coordinación de Políticas con el objetivo de ayudar a los países a liberar financiamiento de distintas capas de la red de protección (en particular, de los acuerdos de financiamiento regionales), y demostrar su compromiso de emprender reformas. El primer instrumento de coordinación de políticas se aprobó para Seychelles el 13 de diciembre.

El FMI publicó un documento sobre cómo mejorar la colaboración en el contexto de los acuerdos de financiamiento regionales; en dicho documento se presentan principios y un marco para esta labor. También participamos en una prueba de funcionamiento con la Multilateralización de la Iniciativa de Chiang Mai, que identificó posibles mejoras que podrían ayudar a eliminar contratiempos en el cofinanciamiento.

La economía mundial sigue evolucionando a un ritmo rápido: la tecnología de cadenas de bloques y Venmo no existían siquiera como palabras hace algunos años. El ritmo del cambio y la innovación significa que debemos mantenernos ágiles y crear una mejor red de protección que mantenga sus muchos hilos estrechamente conectados, coordinados y concentrados en las necesidades de los países.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://blog-dialogoafondo.imf.org/?p=8577&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

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INDICADORES/INDICATORS

• US ECONOMIC INDICATORS
• US INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
• CANADA INDICATORS
• BALANÇA COMERCIAL BRASILEIRA
• BACEN. BOLETIM FOCUS: RELATÓRIO SEMANAL DE MERCADO (Projeções atualizadas semanalmente pelas 100 principais instituições financeiras que operam no Brasil, para os principais indicadores da economia brasileira)
• BACEN. Indicadores Econômicos Consolidados
• BACEN. Câmbio
• BOVESPA
• INDICADORES DO BANCO MUNDIAL

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BACEN. BOLETIM FOCUS: RELATÓRIO SEMANAL DE MERCADO

(Projeções atualizadas semanalmente pelas 100 principais instituições financeiras que operam no Brasil, para os principais indicadores da economia brasileira)

ANÁLISE

BACEN. PORTAL G1. Mercado reduz previsão do PIB e de inflação de 2018, divulga BC. Pesquisa feita com analistas do mercado financeiro mostra que previsão de crescimento do PIB de 2018 caiu para 2,69%. Já a estimativa de inflação para este ano ficou em 3,95%.
Por Laís Lis, G1, Brasília

Analistas do mercado financeiro reduziram suas previsões de inflação e de crescimento da economia para 2018. Segundo dados do relatório de mercado conhecido como "Focus", os economistas ouvidos pelo Banco Central estimam uma inflação de 3,95% em 2018, contra 3,96% do último relatório.

Já a estimativa de crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) de 2018 caiu de 2,70% para 2,69%.

O Focus é feito com base em pesquisa do Banco Central, da semana passada, com mais de 100 instituições financeiras. Este foi o primeiro relatório feito em 2018.

Para 2017, o mercado elevou a previsão de crescimento do PIB de 1% para 1,01% e aumentou de 2,78% para 2,79% a inflação prevista para 2017.

Com isso, a inflação em 2017 deve ficar abaixo da meta fixada pelo governo. Pelo sistema brasileiro, a meta central é de 4,5% para este ano e para 2018, com um intervalo de tolerância de 1,5 ponto percentual para cima e para baixo, de modo que a inflação pode ficar entre 3% e 6% sem que seja formalmente descumprida.

Quando a meta de inflação é descumprida, o presidente do Banco Central tem que escrever uma carta pública ao ministro da Fazenda explicando as razões para a variação fora da previsão.

Juros

O mercado estima que no fim de 2018 a taxa básica de juros do Brasil, a Selic, esteja em 6,75%. Atualmente a Selic está em 7%.

Câmbio, balança e investimentos

Na edição desta semana do relatório Focus, a projeção do mercado financeiro para a taxa de câmbio no fim de 2018 ficou estável em R$ 3,34.

A projeção do boletim Focus para o resultado da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), em 2018, apresentou uma leve queda de US$ 52,5 bilhões para US$ 52 bilhões de resultado positivo.

Na semana passada o Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços (Mdic) divulgou que a balança comercial fechou 2017 com superávit de US$ 67 bilhões. O resultado é bem próximo da última estimativa do mercado, que previa um resultado positivo de US$ 66 bilhões para 2017.

A previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil, em 2018, permaneceu em US$ 80 bilhões. Já a estimativa para 2017 caiu de US$ 80 bilhões para US$ 78 bilhões.

BACEN. REUTERS. 8 DE JANEIRO DE 2018. Economistas veem no Focus inflação a 2,79% em 2017 e a 3,95% em 2018

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - As expectativas para a inflação e para a atividade econômica sofreram ligeiros ajustes na pesquisa Focus do Banco Central divulgada nesta segunda-feira, com a estimativa para os juros básicos neste ano permanecendo em 6,75 por cento.

A estimativa para a alta do IPCA em 2017 agora é de 2,79 por cento, de 2,78 por cento na pesquisa anterior, permanecendo abaixo da meta de inflação, que é de 4,5 por cento pelo IPCA, com margem de 1,5 ponto percentual para mais ou menos. O IBGE divulga na quarta-feira o resultado do IPCA do ano passado.

Para 2018, o ajuste também foi de 0,01 ponto percentual, mas para baixo, a 3,95 por cento. A meta de inflação para este ano é a mesma do ano passado.

Com a fraqueza da inflação e as sinalizações do BC de que deve continuar reduzindo a taxa básica de juros no início deste ano, a expectativa é de que a Selic termine 2018 a 6,75 por cento, após fechar o ano passado na mínima histórica de 7 por cento.

Já o grupo de economistas que mais acertam as previsões, o Top-5, continua vendo os juros básicos a 6,5 por cento ao final de 2017.

O Focus mostrou ainda que a conta para o Produto Interno Bruto é de expansão de 1,01 por cento em 2017, 0,01 ponto a mais do que o esperado no levantamento anterior. Para este ano, houve queda de 0,01 ponto na projeção de crescimento, a 2,69 por cento.

Por Camila Moreira

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ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRAZIL ECONOMICS

MDIC. 08 de Janeiro de 2018. Balança comercial tem superávit de US$ 513 milhões na primeira semana de janeiro. Saldo positivo é resultado de exportações de US$ 2,957 bilhões e importações de US$ 2,444 bilhões

(Brasília 8 de janeiro) - Na primeira semana de janeiro de 2018, que teve quatro dias úteis, a balança comercial brasileira teve saldo positivo de US$ 513 milhões, resultado de exportações de US$ 2,957 bilhões e importações de US$ 2,444 bilhões.

Houve crescimento de 9,1% nas exportações, se comparadas as médias da primeira semana de janeiro deste ano (US$ 739,3 milhões) com a de janeiro do ano passado (US$ 677,6 milhões). A causa foi o aumento nas vendas de produtos manufaturados (23,5%, por conta de aviões, tubos de ferro fundido, motores e turbinas para aviação, óxidos e hidróxidos de alumínio, torneiras, válvulas e partes) e de semimanufaturados (1,7%, em função de semimanufaturados de ferro e aço, celulose, ferro fundido, ferro-ligas, catodos de cobre). Por outro lado, caíram as vendas de produtos básicos (-0,05%, por conta, principalmente, de petróleo em bruto, farelo de soja, fumo em folhas, minério de manganês e minério de ferro). Em relação a dezembro de 2017, houve retração de 16%, em virtude da queda nas vendas das três categorias de produtos: manufaturados (21,1%), básicos (-15,2%) e semimanufaturados (-8,6%).

Nas importações, a média diária da primeira semana de janeiro deste ano (US$ 610,9 milhões), ficou 10,2% acima da média de janeiro de 2017 (US$ 554,4 milhões). Nesse comparativo, cresceram os gastos, principalmente, com químicos orgânicos e inorgânicos (71,1%), veículos automóveis e partes (42,4%), farmacêuticos (39,2%), plásticos e obras (28,1%), equipamentos eletroeletrônicos (20,9%). Na comparação com dezembro de 2017, houve retração nas importações de 3%, pelas diminuições das compras externas de bebidas e álcool (-77,6%), adubos e fertilizantes (-69,8%), combustíveis e lubrificantes (-30,8%), cereais e produtos da indústria da moagem (-22,5%) e farmacêuticos (-5,4%).

RESULTADOS GERAIS

Na primeira semana de janeiro de 2018 (de 01 a 07), com 4 dias úteis, a balança comercial registrou superávit de US$ 513 milhões, resultado de exportações no valor de US$ 2,957 bilhões e importações de US$ 2,444 bilhões.

ANÁLISE DO MÊS

Nas exportações, comparadas as médias da 1ª semana de janeiro/2018 (US$ 739,3 milhões) com a de janeiro/2017 (US$ 677,6 milhões), houve crescimento de 9,1%, em razão do aumento nas vendas de produtos manufaturados (+23,5%, de US$ 232,8 milhões para US$ 287,4 milhões, por conta de aviões, tubos de ferro fundido, motores e turbinas para aviação, óxidos e hidróxidos de alumínio, torneiras, válvulas e partes) e de semimanufaturados (+1,7%, de US$ 118,1 milhões para US$ 120,0 milhões, por conta de semimanufaturados de ferro/aço, celulose, ferro fundido, ferro-ligas, catodos de cobre). Por outro lado, caíram as vendas de produtos básicos (-0,05%, de US$ 308,5 milhões para US$ 308,3 milhões, por conta, principalmente, de petróleo em bruto, farelo de soja, fumo em folhas, minério de manganês e minério de ferro). Relativamente a dezembro/2017, houve retração de 16,0%, em virtude da queda nas vendas das três categorias de produtos: manufaturados (-21,1%, de US$ 364,1 milhões para US$ 287,4 milhões), básicos (-15,2%, de US$ 363,7 milhões para US$ 308,3 milhões) e semimanufaturados (-8,6%, de US$ 131,2 milhões para US$ 120,0 milhões).

Nas importações, a média diária da 1ª semana de janeiro/2018, de US$ 610,9 milhões, ficou 10,2% acima da média de janeiro/2017 (US$ 554,4 milhões). Nesse comparativo, cresceram os gastos, principalmente, com químicos orgânicos e inorgânicos (+71,1%), veículos automóveis e partes (+42,4%), farmacêuticos (+39,2%), plásticos e obras (+28,1%), equipamentos eletroeletrônicos (+20,9%). Ante dezembro/2017, houve retração nas importações de 3,0%, pelas diminuições em bebidas e álcool (-77,6%), adubos e fertilizantes (-69,8%), combustíveis e lubrificantes (-30,8%), cereais e produtos da indústria da moagem (-22,5%) e farmacêuticos (-5,4%).



FGV. IBRE. 08-Jan-2018. Índices Gerais de Preços. IPC-S. Inflação pelo IPC-S avança na primeira semana de janeiro

O IPC-S de 07 de janeiro de 2018 apresentou variação de 0,31%1, 0,10 ponto percentual (p.p.) acima da taxa registrada na última divulgação.

Nesta apuração, cinco das oito classes de despesa componentes do índice apresentaram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação. A maior contribuição partiu do grupo Alimentação (0,27% para 0,60%). Nesta classe de despesa, cabe mencionar o comportamento do item hortaliças e legumes, cuja taxa passou de -0,29% para 3,25%.

Também registraram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação os grupos: Habitação (-0,33% para -0,23%), Educação, Leitura e Recreação (0,37% para 0,47%), Comunicação (-0,07% para 0,12%) e Despesas Diversas (0,21% para 0,28%). Nestas classes de despesa, vale destacar o comportamento dos itens: tarifa de eletricidade residencial (-2,93% para -2,38%), cursos formais (0,00% para 1,19%), tarifa de telefone residencial (-1,01% para -0,30%) e alimentos para animais domésticos (1,89% para 2,67%), respectivamente.

Em contrapartida, os grupos: Transportes (0,78% para 0,71%), Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,45% para 0,43%) e Vestuário (0,11% para -0,10%) apresentaram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação. Nestas classes de despesa, as maiores contribuições partiram dos itens: gasolina (2,07% para 1,72

DOCUMENTO: http://portalibre.fgv.br/main.jsp?lumPageId=402880972283E1AA0122841CE9191DD3&contentId=8A7C82C55EC04CF10160D50E4A1420F2

DIEESE. PORTAL BRASIL. 05/01/2018. ECONOMIA E EMPREGO. Inflação. Valor da cesta básica fica menor em 21 capitais, aponta Dieese. Queda dos preços foi sentida na maioria das capitais brasileiras de janeiro a dezembro do último ano. Alimentos como feijão, arroz e carne bovina ficaram mais baratos no ano passado

Em linha com a queda da inflação, o valor acumulado da cesta básica caiu na maioria das capitais brasileiras em 2017. Dados do Departamento Intersindical de Estatística e Estudos Socioeconômicos (Dieese) mostram que os preços da cesta diminuíram em 21 capitais.

As principais quedas foram registradas em Belém (-13,16%), Manaus (-12,05%), Brasília (- 12,03%), Cuiabá (-11,62%) e Salvador (-10,84%). Outras diminuições importantes foram observadas em Belo Horizonte (-8,37%), Goiânia (-6,76%), Rio de Janeiro (-5,64%) e São Paulo (-3,31%).

De acordo com a pesquisa, alimentos como o feijão, arroz, carne bovina e feijão ficaram mais baratos em grande parte das capitais levantadas. O açúcar, contudo, foi o único produto que ficou mais barato em todas as 21 localidades, com a queda de até 40% no preço.

Uma das maiores surpresas no ano passado foi a rápida queda da inflação, que já chegou a dois dígitos no País. Agora a expectativa é que a inflação oficial encerre 2017 cotada a 2,75%, conforme a aposta de especialistas e economistas ouvidos pelo Banco Central.

DIEESE. PORTAL G1. 08/01/2018. Custo de Vida em São Paulo aumenta 2,44% em 2017, diz Dieese. Avanço de preços foi menor do que em 2016, quando o índice subiu 6,15%.
Por G1

O índice que mede o custo de vida em São Paulo subiu menos de um ano para o outro. Em 2017, o aumento foi de 2,44%, segundo informou nesta segunda-feira (8) o Departamento Intersindical de Estatística e Estudos Socioeconômicos (Dieese). Em 2016, o aumento de preços tinha sido maior, de 6,15%.

Dos 10 grupos de despesas que entram no cálculo do ICV, metade teve aumento acima da média em 2017:

• Despesas Diversas (7,78%)
• Educação e Leitura (7,16%)
• Saúde (6,02%)
• Habitação (5,76%)
• Transporte (3,36%)

Nos demais grupos foram observadas taxas menores ou negativas:

• Recreação (1,47%)
• Despesas Pessoais (1,89%)
• Alimentação (-2,15%)
• Equipamento Doméstico (-5,12%)
• Vestuário (-5,46%)

Para as famílias de baixa renda, que possuem renda média de R$ 1.500, a taxa acumulada foi de ainda mais baixa do que a geral, de 1,65%.

Para os preços de itens administrados, que são essenciais, como luz, água, gás e combustíveis, os reajustes acumularam alta de 6,79% para a todas as famílias de São Paulo e de 8,02%, para as famílias de baixa renda.

DOCUMENTO: https://www.dieese.org.br/analiseicv/2017/201712analiseicv.html

OPEP. REUTERS. 8 DE JANEIRO DE 2018. ENERGIA. Opep monitora Irã e Venezuela, mas não reagirá a pequenos cortes de oferta, diz fonte
Por Rania El Gamal

DUBAI (Reuters) - A Opep está monitorando a tensão política no Irã e a crise na Venezuela, mas o cartel só elevará a produção caso ocorram interrupções significativas e consistentes na oferta por parte desses países, disse uma fonte sênior da organização que representa um grande produtor do Oriente Médio.

Os problemas econômicos da Venezuela atingiram a produção de petróleo do país, que está no menor nível em 30 anos, mas a oferta do Irã ainda não foi afetada por uma onda de protestos contra o governo.

Operadores dizem que a tensão política no Irã, terceiro maior produtor da Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo, tem puxados para cima os preços da commodity.

A Arábia Saudita, líder de fato da Opep, quer o petróleo acima de 60 dólares por barril para impulsionar o valor da petroleira estatal Saudi Aramco antes da programada oferta pública inicial de ações (IPO, na sigla em inglês) da companhia, prevista para mais tarde neste ano, de modo a diminuir o déficit no orçamento do país, segundo fontes.

“Mesmo se houver interrupção na oferta (do Irã ou Venezuela)... a Opep não elevará a produção”, disse a fonte sênior do cartel.

“A política da Opep é trazer os estoques para níveis normais e seguirá assim, a menos que a interrupção na oferta de algo como 1 milhão de barris por dia persista por mais do que um mês e provoque restrições para os consumidores.”

A fonte também disse que o mercado de petróleo está a caminho de se reequilibras, mas até agora os estoques mundiais de permanecem acima da média de cinco anos e é necessário muito mais tempo para “drenar” o excesso da commodity.

“Qualquer alteração nos limites de produção deve ser guiada por uma mudança nos fundamentos do mercado, e não apenas por especulações de curto prazo”, adicionou a fonte.

VENEZUELA. REUTERS. 6 DE JANEIRO DE 2018. Maduro diz que Venezuela vai emitir US$5,9 bi em moeda virtual lastreada em petróleo

CARACAS (Reuters) - O presidente Nicolás Maduro disse na sexta-feira que a Venezuela emitirá 100 milhões de unidades de sua nova moeda virtual lastreada em petróleo nos próximos dias, embora não esteja claro se algum investidor irá desejar comprar a “petro” no momento em que o país-membro da Opep enfrenta uma crise econômica profunda e o governo tem pouca credibilidade.

O socialista Maduro surpreendeu no mês passado quando anunciou o lançamento da criptomoeda, lastreada pelas reservas de petróleo, gás, ouro e diamantes da Venezuela, como forma de contornar as sanções dos EUA que prejudicaram o acesso da Venezuela aos bancos internacionais.

Maduro especificou na sexta-feira que cada unidade da moeda virtual será vinculada à cesta de petróleo da Venezuela, que esta semana teve preço médio de 59,07 dólares por barril, de acordo com o Ministério do Petróleo. Isso implica que o total de criptomoeda emitida valerá pouco mais de 5,9 bilhões de dólares.

Há, porém, muita confusão sobre como o mecanismo funcionará. Os políticos da oposição já criticaram o projeto como uma idéia fantasiosa condenada ao fracasso e inútil em obter comida para os milhões que sofrem com a falta de produtos e a maior inflação do mundo.

Por Fabián Andrés Cambero e Girish Gupta

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LGCJ.: