US ECONOMICS

FED. April 20, 2017. Speech. Governor Jerome H. Powell, at The Global Finance Forum, Washington, D.C.

Thank you for inviting me to speak here today.1 I will begin by looking back at the global financial crisis and the great recession, which were arriving on the horizon at about this time 10 years ago. For the United States and many other countries, this would turn out to be the most painful economic crisis since the Great Depression. The fact that we had a severe recession but not another depression is a tribute to the aggressive response of those who were in a position to act at that time.2

In the event, the financial system avoided collapse but incurred severe damage and proved incapable, for a time, of performing its key functions. That was true of the largest investment and commercial banks, several of which either failed or required taxpayer support to survive. It was also true of the many pieces of the financial market infrastructure whose structural weaknesses contributed to the crisis, such as the triparty repurchase agreement (repo) market, the over-the-counter derivative market, and prime money market funds.

The financial turmoil caused heavy damage to the real economy. Payroll employment declined by almost 9 million; over 7 million people lost their homes.3 Many young people entered a terrible job market; research shows that this may adversely affect their careers for many years. Many experienced workers who lost their jobs may suffer permanently lower income prospects.4

The nation faced two big tasks after the crisis. We had to get the economy growing again so people could get back to work and rebuild their financial lives. And we had to return the financial system to good health and address the many structural weaknesses that had become apparent.

Today, the first of those tasks is well along. We have gone eight years without a subsequent recession--one of the longest recoveries on record. Employment is now almost 7 million jobs higher than its pre-crisis peak, with all of the net gains coming from the private sector. And with unemployment at 4.5 percent, we are at or close to full employment.

But all is not well. Although job growth has been strong, gross domestic product has increased only about 2 percent annually since the crisis, held down by the weakest sustained period of labor productivity growth since World War II. Labor productivity--the increase in output per hour--has increased only 1/2 percent per year since 2011, about a quarter of its post-war average. The productivity slowdown has profound implications for our national well-being. This slowdown is a worldwide phenomenon, so it is likely that there are global forces at work. The slowdown has been associated with weak investment and a decline in output gains from technological innovation.

We need a national focus on increasing the sustainable growth rate of our economy.5 That means investing in our workforce to give them the skills and aptitudes they need to compete in the global economy. It means policies that reward work, and policies that support investment and research. For the most part, these policies are not in the purview of the Federal Reserve.

What about the second goal? As with the economy, we have made great progress toward our goals. Today, our financial system is without a doubt far stronger than it was before the crisis. The largest financial institutions now hold much higher levels of higher-quality capital. They hold higher levels of liquidity as well and are much less reliant on runnable short-term funding. They are subject to rigorous, forward-looking capital stress tests that recognize the dynamic nature of financial risks. And they have submitted several rounds of resolution plans that are helping to ensure that they could be safely reorganized should all these other safeguards prove insufficient.

Our financial market infrastructures are also much stronger. The amount of intraday credit extended in the triparty repo market has been drastically reduced. Last year, the Securities and Exchange Commission implemented reforms that address weaknesses in the structure of prime money funds. And about 75 percent of interest rate and credit default swaps are now centrally cleared, which allows for greater transparency and more consistent risk management.6 While the move to central clearing has made the system safer, we need to make sure that the central counterparties have the resources and risk-management practices to withstand plausible but severe shocks.7

Many of the statutory provisions and regulations put in place to effect these changes were novel; it is not likely that we would have gotten everything exactly right on the first attempt. This is a good time to step back and ask what changes have worked and where adjustments should be made. Indeed, along with the other financial regulatory agencies, the Federal Reserve is contributing to just such an exercise by the Treasury Department. As I share some of my views on these issues, I should emphasize that I speak for myself and not for my Board colleagues or for the new colleagues who will soon join us.

A few themes can guide us in this next phase. First, after years of raising capital and liquidity standards, and of stress tests and living wills, our financial system is much stronger now. We should protect these core reforms and avoid a return to the highly vulnerable system that existed before the crisis. Second, in too many cases new regulation has been inappropriately applied to small and medium-sized institutions. We need to go back and broadly raise thresholds of applicability and look for other ways to reduce burden on smaller firms. Third, the new rule book is excessively complex. We need to look for ways to simplify the rules so that they support our goals but also improve the efficiency of regulation. For example, we need to allow boards of directors and management to spend a smaller portion of their time on technical compliance exercises and more time focusing on the activities that support sustainable economic growth. Fourth, we need to continue to strive to provide an appropriate level of transparency to supervised firms and the public regarding our expectations.

Some aspects of the new regulatory program are proving unnecessarily burdensome and should be better tailored to meet our objectives. Some provisions may not be needed at all given the broad scope of what we have put in place. I support adjustments designed to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of regulation without sacrificing safety and soundness or undermining macroprudential goals.

One example where some adjustments are warranted is our supervisory relationship with the boards of directors of banking firms. After the crisis, there was a broad increase in supervisory expectations for these boards. But it is important to acknowledge that the board's role is one of oversight, not management. We need to ensure that directors are not distracted from conducting their key functions by an overly detailed checklist of supervisory process requirements. Rather, boards of directors need to be able to focus on setting the overall strategic direction of the firm, while overseeing and holding senior management accountable for operating the business profitably, but also safely, soundly, and in compliance with applicable laws. We are currently reassessing whether our supervisory expectations for boards need to change to ensure that these principles, and not an ever-increasing checklist, are the basis of our supervisory work related to boards.

I am sure that there are other areas where laws, regulations, and supervisory practices could be adjusted in a way that preserves the gains in safety and soundness but helps financial institutions devote as much of their resources as possible to supporting economic growth. I look forward to our discussion.

1. The views I express here are my own and not those of the Federal Reserve. Return to text
2. Ben S. Bernanke, The Courage to Act: A Memoir of a Crisis and Its Aftermath (New York: Norton, 2015). Return to text
3. Source: CoreLogic, completed foreclosures. Return to text
4. See, for example, Lisa B. Kahn, "The Long-Term Labor Market Consequences of Graduating from College in a Bad Economy," Labour Economics 17(2) (April 2010): 303-16. Return to text
5. Jerome H. Powell, "Recent Economic Developments and Longer-Run Challenges" (speech delivered at the Economic Club of Indiana, Indianapolis, November 29, 2016). Return to text
6. Timothy Massad, "Remarks before the 2016 P.R.I.M.E. Finance Annual Conference" (The Hague, the Netherlands, January 25, 2016). Return to text
7. The Alternative Reference Rates Committee is working to strengthen another key segment of the financial infrastructure. The Committee will select its preferred alternative to U.S. dollar London Interbank Offered Rate (or, LIBOR) and is expected to complete its plans to promote the use of this rate this year. Return to text

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20170420a.pdf

FED. REUTERS. 20/04/2017. Kaplan, do Fed, diz que 3 altas dos juros neste ano "ainda é um bom parâmetro"

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - O presidente do Federal Reserve de Dallas, Robert Kaplan, disse nesta quinta-feira que três altas de juros neste ano continuam sendo possíveis, mas que o banco central dos Estados Unidos tem a flexibilidade de esperar e ver como a economia se desenvolve.

"A mediana de três aumentos dos juros neste ano... ainda é um bom parâmetro. Se a economia avançar um pouco mais lentamente, então podemos fazer menos do que isso, e se a economia ficar um pouco mais forte, podemos fazer mais do que isso" disse ele em uma entrevista para a Bloomberg TV.

O Fed elevou sua taxa de juros em 0,25 ponto percentual na reunião de política monetária de março.

(Por Lindsay Dunsmuir)

DoC. Census Bureau. 04/20/2017. California Takes Top Three Spots in Employment Growth Among Large Counties, Census Bureau Reports



San Francisco, Riverside and San Bernardino led the nation in annual employment growth among the top 50 U.S. counties with the most employees, according to new U.S. Census Bureau economic statistics released today. Overall, these 50 counties accounted for 34.6 percent of employment of all establishments defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).

San Francisco County, first for the second year in a row, saw its employment grow 6.6 percent from 2014 to 2015, up 37,843 employees to 611,140 employees. The information sector (NAICS 51), up 13.3 percent to 64,223 employees, led growth in that county. San Francisco also led the top 10 largest counties in annual payroll increase, climbing 12.1 percent to $59.3 billion.

Riverside County saw its employment grow 4.9 percent, up 25,284 employees to 540,169 employees in 2015. San Bernardino County’s employment grew 4.4 percent, up 24,396 employees to 578,755 employees in 2015. Santa Clara County’s employment grew 3.8 percent, up 36,807 employees to 999,906 employees in 2015.
Transportation and Warehousing Sees Large Gains in Two California Counties

Some of the top counties saw the Transportation and Warehousing sector (NAICS 48-49) driving their growth. In Riverside County, transportation and warehousing employment increased 32.3 percent, up 6,865 employees and San Bernardino County saw an increase in employment of 16.2 percent, up 8,125 employees in this sector.

Two other sectors had multiple appearances in the top 10 counties. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector (NAICS 54) was the top sector in Suffolk County, Mass., with an employment increase of 12.0 percent. Hillsborough County, Fla., had an 8.8 percent increase in this sector. Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45) was the top sector in Salt Lake County, Utah, with an employment increase of 7.3 percent. It was also the top sector in Broward County, Fla., with an employment increase of 4.2 percent.

These latest data come from the 2015 County Business Patterns, which provides the only detailed annual information on the number of establishments, employees, and first quarter and annual payroll at the national, state, county, metropolitan, congressional district and five-digit ZIP code levels for nearly 1,200 industries.

National Highlights

• Nationally, the number of establishments increased 1.3 percent to 7.7 million in 2015. Employment rose 2.5 percent to 124.1 million employees in 2015, from 121.1 million in 2014.
• Annual payroll was up 5.3 percent, from $5.9 trillion in 2014 to $6.3 trillion in 2015.
• Average payroll per employee climbed 2.7 percent, from $49,062 in 2014 to $50,396 in 2015.

State and County Highlights

• California had more establishments (908,120) and employees (14.3 million) and a larger annual payroll ($857 billion) than any other state in 2015. Texas followed in each measure (569,091 establishments, 10.2 million employees and $521.1 billion in annual payroll). New York ranked third in all three measures: 540,298 establishments, 8.0 million employees and $513.1 billion in annual payroll.
• Utah had the highest employment growth rate at 4.9 percent. The Transportation and Warehousing sector (NAICS 48-49) led growth in that state, up 20.3 percent to 58,453 employees.
• Los Angeles County, Calif., led all counties in the number of establishments (265,112) and employees (4.0 million); followed by Cook County, Ill., in both measures (132,237 establishments and 2.4 million employees).
• New York County, N.Y. (Manhattan), topped all counties in annual payroll with $239.3 billion, while ranking third in establishments (105,444) and employees (2.2 million).
• Wayne County, Mich., rounded out the top 10 large counties, with an employment increase of 3.6 percent (up 21,650 employees), led by the Manufacturing sector (NAICS 31-33) where employment increased 8.4 percent. The leading subsector was Transportation Equipment Manufacturing (NAICS 336), in which employment increased 10.8 percent.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2017/cb17-59-county-business-patterns.html

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CANADA ECONOMICS

EDC. WEEKLY COMMENTARY. APRIL 20, 2017. West Coast Shows the Way
By Peter G Hall,
Vice President and
Chief Economist

It's not what you’re thinking. Typically, British Columbia is lauded for its rapid, multi-faceted, diversified export profile, and its particular attraction to fast-growing Pacific Rim economies. Those features are still all in place, but recent shifts in the makeup of world growth have had a marked impact on the profile of BC export growth. Is the province still the pace-setter when it comes to diversification? In what sense is the West Coast showing the way?

First and foremost, BC is still an export growth leader. In the post-recession period, it has consistently been at the top of the pack among the provinces, duking it out with Ontario and Prince Edward Island for top honours. It maintained that top-three standing even in the wake of the recent commodity price plunge, demonstrating impressive resilience, and was top-ranked in merchandise export growth in 2016, notching a 9 per cent gain.

It sounds a lot like what we’ve come to expect from BC. At this point, most would conclude that it’s probably the China effect. True, it has been in the past, but not this time. Actually, BC exports to China have stalled. Torrid growth from 2000 to 2013 took the province’s trade with China from just 2 to 20 per cent of its overall exports, and from 27 per cent to two-thirds of its trade with emerging markets. But since then, merchandise exports to China have backed off slightly, resting for the last two years at a total of $6 billion.

At the same time, growth to other emerging markets has actually moved ahead. Performance to these markets was turbulent in the immediate recession period, but it resumed solid trend growth in 2013 and hasn’t looked back. India has been particularly interesting. Since 2009, it has averaged compound annual growth of 40 per cent, not because of a volatile year or two, but due to consistent, stellar annual performance. Another standout market is Indonesia. BC’s Indonesian exports faltered in the wake of the recession, but have catapulted back, racking up annual growth of 31 per cent since 2013. BC is clearly leveraging the solid potential of these ‘next’ emerging markets.

Although less dependent than most provinces on the US market, it is still the dominant one for British Columbia. Thus, it should be no surprise that the real story behind recent success is exports to the US market. Revival in the lower-48 has been good to the province, with growth up almost 11 per cent annually since 2012. Clearly the partial revival in the US housing market has had its benefits, as have an array of other key shipments of goods. Exports to European countries are more of a mixed bag; overall they haven’t fared as well, likely mirroring the sluggish performance of the Continental economies. Even so, there’s more than just hope for a turnaround in their nascent revival.

What about future growth? BC’s trade diversification will pay dividends well into the forecast horizon. Budding trade with India and Indonesia sets BC up to benefit from what promises in both cases to be a very long run of expansion. But don’t count out China; brighter times in the US and Europe will be good for China’s exports, and an invigorated Chinese consumer class will be a global force to reckon with for a long time to come. The same is generally true for other emerging markets. Their collective longer-term growth potential will be much greater than for the average OECD market, suggesting a large organic element to BC’s ongoing diversification.

Concurrently, commodity prices are expected to see a gentle lift through the forecast that will add to the swift rebound we saw in 2016. In large part due to our views of medium-term emerging market performance, there is an upside for commodities that bodes well for BC shipments to all destinations, but especially to hot-growth emerging markets.

This is exciting news, and there’s a whole lot more to say. I’ll soon be embarking on my cross-Canada Let’s Talk Exports tour, and I hope you will be able to join me at one of our 13 locations, and notably our premium event at the EXCELerate conference in Vancouver on May 5.

The bottom line? Global growth is well-illustrated by the pattern of export growth in British Columbia. Some may argue that diversification is done; if anything, it has taken a back seat to the restart of growth; the numbers suggest is it bound to resume.

BLOOBERG. 20 April 2017. Surging Toronto Home Prices Force Government Curbs on Buyers. To impose 15% tax on foreign buyers in Toronto region. Rent control expanded, will take some steps to boost supply
by Kim Chipman

Ontario announced a slew of measures including a tax on foreign buyers and expanded rent control as part of a plan to temper escalating home prices in Toronto.

The 15 percent levy will apply to non-Canadian citizens, non-permanent residents, and non-Canadian corporations buying residential properties containing one to six units in the greater Toronto area, the provincial government said in a statement Thursday. Rent control will be imposed on buildings constructed after 1991 -- effective April 20 -- which limits annual increases.

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne’s administration will also take steps to boost supply: the Ontario Fair Housing Plan includes 12 measures, such as a targeted C$125 million ($93 million) five-year program to encourage building of new rental apartment buildings by rebating a portion of development charges.

"In some ways, we have to realize that this is a good problem to have," Wynne said in a briefing. The price rises reflect confidence in Ontario’s economy but when young people cannot afford homes "we know we have a problem and we know we have to act," she said.

Preventing a Sharp Correction

The move comes a week before Ontario unveils its budget on April 27 and two days after the province’s Finance Minister Charles Sousa said the government recognizes that "now" is the time to address the issue. Toronto’s surging real-estate market has triggered debate over whether non-Canadian speculators are bidding up homes and fueling unsustainable record price gains, or if a lack of housing supply and inadequate urban planning is more to blame.

The speculation tax, which is aimed to take effect immediately, won’t apply to refugees or immigrant nominees. Ontario’s government will also work with municipalities to identify provincially owned surplus land that could be used for affordable and rental housing development.

Home prices in the Toronto region rose 6.2 percent in March, the biggest one-month gain on record, according to a benchmark price index by the Canadian Real Estate Association, and jumped almost 30 percent in the past 12 months. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz last week said there is no justification for such gains and warned of a price correction.

People "should be able to rent or enter the real estate market without making great sacrifices or taking on a huge amount of risk," Wynne said. "At the same time, we recognize the need to protect the significant investment homeowners have made. This plan balances those needs to stabilize the market and prevent a sharp correction that would be harmful to everyone."

REUTERS. Apr 20, 2017. Canadian small business lending dips in Feb: PayNet

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Lending activity to small Canadian businesses dipped in February, though borrowing by medium-sized firms rose for the fourth month in a row on strength in the construction sector and oil-related provinces, data showed on Thursday.

The PayNet Small Business Lending Index declined to 116.1 from 117.2 in January, while the gauge for medium business lending rose to 232.8 from 230.9, the highest level since January 2016.

The mild pullback for small businesses and the relatively low delinquency rate suggests companies will be poised to take advantage of stronger economic growth when it comes, said PayNet President Bill Phelan.

"They're not finding a lot of organic economic growth but they're not risking a lot, they're not putting a lot of new capital to work," Phelan said. "They're maintaining their financial resources until the day they find some more growth."

Canada was hurt in 2015 by the sharp drop in the price of oil, a major export, but stronger economic data recently has suggested the economy may be turning a corner. At the same time, oil has recovered to trade around $50 a barrel.

In oil-producing Alberta, the index of loan originations rose to 167.1 from 166.4. Activity in Saskatchewan, which is also sensitive to commodity prices, increased to 261.2 from 260.6.

Activity in the construction sector rose to 135.4 from 133.6. Housing activity in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec gave the sector a lift, Phelan said.

The number of small businesses that were 30 days behind on their loans held steady at 1.11 percent, while those that were 90 days or more late remained unchanged at 0.35 percent.

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

OPEC. REUTERS. Apr 20, 2017. Oil prices support TSX futures; inflation data awaited
REUTERS/Mark Blinch

(Reuters) - Canada's main stock index was set to open higher on Thursday as oil prices rose after leading Gulf oil producers signaled a likely extension of OPEC-led supply cuts beyond the middle of the year.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait signaled that an effort by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, to cut oil output was likely to be extended beyond June.

June futures on the S&P TSX index SXFc1 were up 0.38 percent at 7:15 a.m. ET.

Investors will look forward to the country's annual inflation rate, which is likely to have slipped to 1.8 percent in March from 2 percent in February. Statistics Canada is scheduled to report inflation numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET ECONCA.

Canada's main stock index fell on Wednesday as sliding oil prices weighed on energy stocks, while solid earnings boosted Rogers Communications Inc (RCIb.TO: Quote) and BlackBerry Ltd (BB.TO: Quote) gained on a deal to get its cyber security tools in front of more potential customers.

Dow Jones Industrial Average e-mini futures 1YMc1 were up 0.17 percent at 7:15 a.m. ET, while S&P 500 e-mini futures ESc1 were up 0.25 percent and Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures NQc1 were up 0.3 percent. [.N]

(Reporting by Nikhil Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)

OPEC. REUTERS. Apr 20, 2017. Oil prices claw back losses, but oversupply still weighs
By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices regained some ground on Thursday after steep losses the previous day, as Kuwait said it expected an OPEC-led effort to cut supplies would be extended beyond the middle of the year.

Brent crude futures were at $53.34 per barrel at 0715 GMT (3:15 a.m. ET), up 41 cents, or 0.77 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 32 cents, or 0.63 percent, to $50.76 a barrel.

Traders said that the gains followed comments by OPEC-members Saudi Arabia and Kuwait that an effort by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, including Russia, to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year would be extended beyond June.

A reduction in commercial U.S. crude stocks, which fell by 1 million barrels last week to 532.34 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), also supported prices, traders said.

The price increases on Thursday followed a more than 3.5 percent drop in both crude benchmarks during the previous session after the EIA reported surging gasoline inventories as well as another rise in U.S. crude oil production to 9.25 million barrels per day (bpd), up almost 10 percent since mid-2016.

U.S. gasoline stocks posted a counter-seasonal build of 1.5 million barrels, because of rising refining activity.

Traders said that the rising U.S. crude production posed a concern that the oil supply overhang would continue, while the jump in gasoline stocks implied a stutter in demand.

"The fact that gasoline stocks rose... worried traders that demand is not as strong as many thought," said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader.

Overall, global fuel markets remain bloated, and Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih was quoted on Thursday in an interview with the Saudi-owned al-Hayat newspaper that supplies remained elevated in part because traders were selling supplies out of tanker storage.

In China, an ongoing fuel supply overhang is persisting as there were signs that Chinese refiners were using record crude oil imports to produce more fuel like gasoline and diesel than the country can absorb.

China's March gasoline output rose 2.5 percent year on year to 11.24 million tonnes, the highest level since at least April 2014, data from China's National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday, adding fuel into an Asian market that is already well supplied.

(Reporting by Henning Gloystein; Editing by Joseph Radford and Christian Schmollinger)

StatCan. 2017-04-19. Industrial research and development characteristics, 2016 (intentions)

Based on the intentions of research and development (R&D)-performing firms, in-house R&D spending is expected to edge down from $18.5 billion in 2014 to $17.9 billion in 2015 and to $17.7 billion 2016.

Data from the newly redesigned Annual Survey of Research and Development in Canadian Industry showed that 80% of all in-house industrial R&D spending was Canadian sourced self-funded by the business performing the R&D, while 17% of these expenditures were financed by Canadian- and foreign-related firms.

Firms with R&D programs responsible for over one-half of in-house R&D spending
Businesses with R&D programs were responsible for most in-house spending on industrial R&D. Individual businesses that spent $10 million or more on in-house R&D accounted for almost 60% of in-house industrial R&D expenditures in 2014. Businesses that spent between $1 million and $10 million on R&D were responsible for 23% of in-house expenditures, while those that spent less than $1 million on R&D accounted for the remaining share of in-house spending.

Chart 1   Chart 1: Distribution of industrial in-house research and development (R&D) expenditures, by R&D expenditure size group, 2014
Distribution of industrial in-house research and development (R&D) expenditures, by R&D expenditure size group, 2014

 

Businesses located in Central Canada accounted for almost three-quarters of in-house R&D spending in 2014. Firms located in Ontario represented 44% of in-house R&D spending, while those located in Quebec accounted for 29%. Higher R&D expenditures in Ontario and Quebec were supported by the presence of R&D-performing manufacturers and technology-based service firms in these provinces.

Businesses in Alberta, supported by R&D spending in the oil and gas extraction sector, accounted for 12% of in-house R&D spending, while businesses in British Columbia were responsible for 10%.

Chart 2   Chart 2: Industrial in-house research and development spending by geographic region, 2014
Industrial in-house research and development spending by geographic region, 2014

 

Specialized research firms and software developers report highest levels of in-house R&D spending
Service-producing businesses were responsible for over half of all in-house R&D spending in 2014, led by specialized research firms, computer system designers and software publishers. Specialized research firms include start-up companies that focus on developing new goods or services before their entry onto the market, as well as contract research-based firms.

Manufacturing firms were responsible for one-third of in-house R&D spending. Aerospace product and parts manufacturers ($1.6 billion) spent the most, followed by machinery ($682 million) and pharmaceutical ($488 million) manufacturers in 2014.

Businesses engaged in R&D for oil and gas extraction purposes accounted for nearly 8% of all in-house industrial R&D spending.

Engineering and technology projects account for over three-quarters of industrial in-house R&D spending
In 2014, over three-quarters ($14.4 billion) of all industrial R&D expenditures were in engineering and technology. Spending on software-related sciences and technologies totalled $5.0 billion of in-house R&D spending. In-house R&D spending in natural and formal sciences amounted to over 10% of in-house R&D expenditures. Firms engaged in medical and health sciences accounted for nearly 10% of these expenditures, reflecting R&D activity related to medical biotechnology, basic medicine and clinical medicine.

In-house R&D spending for service-producing firms was relatively widespread across R&D fields. Service-producing firms dedicated over 75% of their in-house R&D spending to engineering and technology, with software-related engineering and technology accounting for over half this amount. In the manufacturing industry, engineering and technology (85.5%) accounted for most in-house R&D spending.

Data are now available for R&D spending in social sciences and humanities
Businesses spent $18 million on in-house R&D related to social sciences and humanities in 2014, reflecting research in geography, planning, organization and interdisciplinary fields, the humanities, and economics and business. Based on new data now available for this field of R&D, service-producing firms were responsible for over three-quarters of in-house R&D spending on social sciences.

Most firms that perform R&D report innovative outcomes
Data from the newly redesigned Annual Survey of Research and Development in Canadian Industry allowed for more detailed analysis on the nature of R&D and its impact on business outcomes.

In 2014, experimental development accounted for over two-thirds of R&D spending. Experimental development is defined as work that draws on existing knowledge and aims at producing new products or processes or substantially improving existing products or processes. Firms also allocated more than 20% of their in-house R&D spending to applied research and 5% to basic research.

Among firms investing in R&D from 2012 to 2014, about 55% reported that their R&D activities led to new or improved goods, while 43% reported that these activities led to new or improved services.

Chart 3   Chart 3: Results of research and development expenditures, 2014
Results of research and development expenditures, 2014



In 2014, firms employed 149,943 full-time equivalent R&D personnel, consisting mainly of professionals such as researchers (92,027) and technologists (51,626).

On an industry basis, service-producing firms employed just over 60% of R&D personnel and manufacturers about one-third. Researchers and research managers accounted for almost 70% of the R&D workforce in service industries and 49% of the R&D workforce in manufacturing. In the manufacturing sector, technologists performed just under half of R&D.

The redesigned survey also included data on the use of on-site R&D consultants. Just over 6,000 on-site R&D consultants were employed by R&D-performing businesses in 2014, mainly in R&D services and technology-based manufacturers.

Chart 4   Chart 4: Share of industrial in-house research and development spending by top 100 companies in decline, 1973 to 2016

Share of industrial in-house research and development spending by top 100 companies in decline, 1973 to 2016





StatCan. 2017-04-19. Energy research and development expenditures by area of technology, 2014. Two-thirds of energy research and development by businesses was related to fossil fuels

Of the $18.5 billion that companies spent on in-house research and development (R&D) in Canada in 2014, $2.1 billion was directed to energy-related technologies.

Energy-related R&D expenditures span a diverse range of technologies and industrial sectors.

In 2014, over 60% or $1.3 billion of energy-related in-house R&D spending was connected to fossil fuels energy, ranging from coal, oil and natural gas production to fossil fuels transportation.

The remaining energy-related R&D expenditures of $800 million covered a variety of technologies, including: nuclear-related technology ($319 million or 15.0%); electric power production technologies ($79 million or 3.7%); renewables ($125 million or 5.9%); hydrogen and fuel cells technology ($76 million or 3.6%); and energy efficiency technologies for industry, transportation, residences and institutions ($124 million or 5.8%).

Chart 1   Chart 1: Energy-related R&D expenditures by area of technology, 2014
Energy-related R&D expenditures by area of technology, 2014



About three-quarters of energy R&D performed by energy-intensive sectors
Utilities and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, sectors generally considered energy intensive, spent $1.5 billion on energy-related in-house R&D in 2014.

Professional services companies spent $240 million on energy-related in-house R&D, with other services companies spending an additional $204 million. Manufacturers spent $189 million on energy-related in-house R&D in 2014.

Foreign-controlled companies account for just over one-fifth of energy research and development
Firms under foreign control accounted for just over one-fifth of all energy-related in-house R&D expenditures in 2014. These companies spent $432 million on energy-related R&D, three-quarters of which was dedicated to fossil-fuel technologies.

Energy-related in-house R&D was largely self-funded, with 89% ($1.9 billion) of funds coming from these R&D performers. Energy-related, in-house R&D performed under contract or on behalf of other Canadian organizations and governments amounted to $162 million (7.6%). Foreign-funding accounted for the remaining $66 million (3.1%) in 2014.

Companies spent over half a billion dollars on research and development for clean technology
Research and development in-house spending related to clean technology such as renewable energy resources, nuclear, hydrogen and fuel cells, energy efficiency, and carbon capture amounted to more than $600 million in 2014. Of these clean technology in-house R&D expenditures, nuclear-related led ($319 million), followed by renewable energy resources ($125 million), energy efficiency related technology ($124 million), hydrogen and fuel cells ($76 million) and expenditures on carbon capture.

Chart 2   Chart 2: Energy-related research and develoment expenditures for selected clean technologies, 2014
Energy-related research and develoment expenditures for selected clean technologies, 2014



ScotiaBank. 04/19/2017. Economics Publications. GLOBAL ECONOMICS. Executive Briefing. BRAZIL. April 2017.

DOCUMENT: http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/scpt/gbm/scotiaeconomics63/brazil-execbriefing.pdf

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IBGE. 20/04/2017. Em abril, IPCA-15 fica em 0,21%

PERÍODO	TAXA
Abril	0,21%
Março	0,15%
Abril 2016	0,51%
Acumulado no ano	1,22%
Acumulado em 12 meses	4,41%

O Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo 15 (IPCA-15) teve variação de 0,21% em abril e ficou acima da taxa de 0,15% de março em 0,06 ponto percentual (p.p.). Desde 2006, quando o índice ficou em 0,17%, não há registro de índice mais baixo para os meses de abril. Com isto o resultado no ano foi para 1,22%, bem abaixo do que os 3,32% referentes ao mesmo período do ano anterior. Em relação aos últimos doze meses, o índice desceu para 4,41%, abaixo dos 4,73% registrados nos 12 meses imediatamente anteriores, constituindo-se na menor variação acumulada em períodos de 12 meses desde janeiro de 2010 (4,31%). Em abril de 2016, a taxa foi 0,51%.

No mês, os grupos Alimentação e Bebidas, com 0,31% de variação e impacto de 0,08 p.p., aliado a Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais, com 0,91% e 0,10 p.p., que, juntos, somam 0,18 p.p., foram os principais responsáveis pelo resultado do IPCA-15. A tabela a seguir mostra os resultados de todos os grupos de produtos e serviços pesquisados.

Grupo	Variação (%)		Impacto (p.p.)
	Março	Abril	Março	Abril
Índice Geral	0,15	0,21	0,15	0,21
Alimentação e Bebidas	-0,08	0,31	-0,02	0,08
Habitação	0,64	0,39	0,10	0,06
Artigos de Residência	-0,30	-0,43	-0,01	-0,02
Vestuário	-0,02	0,44	0,00	0,03
Transportes	-0,16	-0,44	-0,03	-0,08
Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais	0,48	0,91	0,05	0,10
Despesas Pessoais	0,30	0,23	0,03	0,02
Educação	0,87	0,14	0,04	0,01
Comunicação	-0,31	0,18	-0,01	0,01

Nos alimentos (0,31%), o tomate, 30,79% mais caro, se destaca na liderança no ranking dos maiores impactos no índice. Além dele, outros produtos passaram a custar mais de março para abril, a exemplo da batata-inglesa (11,63%), dos ovos (5,50%) e do leite longa vida (1,49%).

Em Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,91%), grupo que mostrou a mais elevada variação, os remédios sobressaem com alta de 0,86%, refletindo parte do reajuste anual, que passou a valer a partir de 31 de março, variando entre 1,36% e 4,76%, conforme o tipo do medicamento. Plano de saúde (1,07%), artigos de higiene pessoal (0,92%) e serviços médicos e dentários (0,89%) também exerceram influência sobre o resultado.

No grupo Habitação (0,39%) o botijão de gás ficou 3,16% mais caro, enquanto as contas de energia elétrica (0,00%) não mostraram variação em relação ao mês anterior. Isto porque, apesar do reflexo de parte do desconto referente ao Encargo de Energia de Reserva – EER, as contas de energia refletiram, também, a introdução das bandeiras amarela e vermelha, em vigor a partir de primeiro de março e primeiro de abril, respectivamente. Além disso, junto com movimentos nas parcelas referentes ao PIS/COFINS em todas as regiões pesquisadas, foi apropriada parte de reajuste ocorrido nas tarifas de uma das concessionárias do Rio de Janeiro e redução em outra.

Entre os demais grupos destacam-se as quedas registradas nos Artigos de Residência (-0,43%) e Transportes (-0,44%). Em relação ao grupo Transportes (-0,44%), apesar da alta de 15,32% nas passagens aéreas, o resultado foi influenciado pela queda nos preços dos combustíveis (-2,77%), sendo que o litro da gasolina ficou 2,24% mais barato e o litro do etanol atingiu queda de 5,48%.

Quanto aos índices regionais, conforme a tabela a seguir, a região metropolitana de Recife apresentou o maior resultado (0,53%) em razão da alta registrada na gasolina, 5,03%. O índice mais baixo foi o da região metropolitana de Belo Horizonte (-0,07%), onde os combustíveis tiveram variação de -3,32%.

Região	Peso Regional (%)	Variação Mensal (%)		Variação Acumulada (%)
		Março	Abril	Ano	12 meses
Recife	5,05	0,06	0,53	1,48	5,17
Rio de Janeiro	12,46	0,20	0,51	1,95	5,14
Brasília	3,46	-0,08	0,42	1,24	4,57
Goiânia	4,44	-0,17	0,39	0,43	2,75
Porto Alegre	8,40	0,08	0,35	1,01	4,05
São Paulo	31,68	0,27	0,17	1,08	4,40
Salvador	7,35	-0,07	0,11	1,52	4,84
Fortaleza	3,49	0,57	0,07	1,88	6,32
Curitiba	7,79	0,37	0,06	0,96	2,99
Belém	4,65	0,15	-0,03	0,94	4,26
Belo Horizonte	11,23	-0,07	-0,07	1,00	4,45
Brasil	100,00	0,15	0,21	1,22	4,41

Para o cálculo do IPCA-15 os preços foram coletados no período de 15 de março a 12 de abril de 2017 (referência) e comparados com aqueles vigentes de 14 de fevereiro a 14 de março de 2017 (base). O indicador refere-se às famílias com rendimento de 1 a 40 salários mínimos e abrange as regiões metropolitanas do Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador e Curitiba, além de Brasília e Goiânia. A metodologia utilizada é a mesma do IPCA, a diferença está no período de coleta dos preços e na abrangência geográfica.

DOCUMENTO: http://saladeimprensa.ibge.gov.br/noticias?view=noticia&id=1&busca=1&idnoticia=3415

USP. FIPE. REUTERS. 20/04/2017. IPC-Fipe acelera alta a 0,43% na segunda quadrissemana de abril

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) de São Paulo acelerou a alta a 0,43 por cento na segunda quadrissemana de abril, contra 0,31 por cento na primeira leitura do mês, de acordo com os dados divulgados nesta quinta-feira pela Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (Fipe).

O IPC-Fipe mede as variações quadrissemanais dos preços às famílias paulistanas com renda mensal entre 1 e 10 salários mínimos.

(Por Camila Moreira)

BACEN. 19/04/2017. Apontamentos, por meio de videoconferência, do presidente Ilan Goldfajn no evento "Role of Central Banks on Managing Economic Crisis Perspective of Brazil’s Central Bank President", do MIT Sloan School of Management.

DOCUMENTO: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/appron/apres/Apontamentos%20-%20MIT%2019April17%20VF.pdf

CIA VALE DO RIO DOCE. 18/04/2017. Relatório de Produção 1T17. O Sistema Norte, que compreende as operações de Carajás, Serra Leste e S11D, atingiu um recorde para um primeiro trimestre

​A Vale atingiu o recorde para um primeiro trimestre de 86,2 Mt na produção de minério de ferro[1] no primeiro trimestre de 2017 (1T17), ficando 11,2% maior do que no 1T16, devido, principalmente, ao ramp-up dos projetos S11D e Itabiritos no Sistema Sudeste.

O Sistema Norte, que compreende as operações de Carajás, Serra Leste e S11D, atingiu um recorde para um primeiro trimestre de 36,0 Mt no 1T17, ficando 11,1% maior do que no 1T16, como resultado do ramp-up de S11D, que está avançando conforme o planejado.

Os volumes blendados na Ásia totalizaram 12,4 Mt no 1T17, ficando 10,3 Mt e 6,5 Mt maiores do que no 1T15 e no 1T16, respectivamente, como resultado da estratégia em andamento, que consiste em trazer mais flexibilidade à cadeia integrada de valor através do aumento da capacidade de blendagem, permitindo respostas rápidas a mudanças de condições de mercado. As atividades de blending offshore requerem o incremento dos estoques offshore e, consequentemente, leva temporariamente a menores volumes de venda, quando comparados aos embarques do Brasil.

A produção de níquel totalizou 71,4 kt no 1T17, ficando 14,0% e 2,9% menor do que no 4T16 e no 1T16, respectivamente, devido, principalmente, a paradas de manutenção em nossas operações na Indonésia e no Japão e a dificuldades operacionais em nossas operações em Thompson.

A produção de níquel acabado de VNC atingiu o recorde de 10.200 t no 1T17, ficando 14,7% maior do que no 4T16 e 6,0% maior do que no 1T16.

A produção de cobre foi de 109.000 t no 1T17, ficando 11,0% e 2,6% menor do que no 4T16 e no 1T16, respectivamente, devido, principalmente, à menor produção de Sudbury. A produção de cobre contido no concentrado de Salobo no 1T17 atingiu o recorde para um primeiro trimestre de 42.600 t, ficando 3,6% maior do que no 1T16.

A produção de carvão em Moçambique atingiu o recorde trimestral de 2,4 Mt no 1T17, ficando 170,4% e 53,7% maior do que no 1T16 e no 4T16, respectivamente, devido, principalmente, ao forte e contínuo ramp-up da segunda planta de processamento (Coal Handling and Preparation Plant - CHPP2). A produção da CHPP2 aumentou em 86% no 1T17, quando comparada ao 4T16.

[1] Inclui aquisição de terceiros​​

Relatório: http://saladeimprensa.vale.com/Lists/Acervo/Attachments/3017/PREPORT1T17_p.pdf

BACEN. PORTAL G1. 19/04/2017. Entrada de dólares supera saída em US$ 7 bilhões na parcial de abril. Somente entre os dias 10 e 13 de abril, o país recebeu US$ 4,094 bilhões.
Por G1

O fluxo de dólares na economia brasileira segue positivo, com os ingresos de recursos superando as retiradas em U$ 7,049 bilhões no acumulado em abril até o dia 13, informou o Banco Central nesta quarta-feira (19).
Somente entre os dias 10 e 13 de abril, o país recebeu US$ 4,094 bilhões.
No acumulado no ano, a entrada de dólares superou a saída em US$ 9,019 bilhão. No mesmo período de 2016, US$ 7,217 bilhões saíram na economia brasileira.
Se confirmado o fluxo positivo no fechamento de abril, este será o segundo mês seguido de ingresso líquido de dólares na economia brasileira. Em março, a entrada de dólares superou a evasão US$ 2,87 bilhões.
Impacto no dólar
A entrada de dólares favorece, em tese, a desvalorização da moeda em relação ao real. Isso porque, com mais dólares no mercado, seu preço tenderia a cair. Em março, porém, o dólar registrou alta de 0,57%. Foi o primeiro avanço mensal desde novembro de 2016. No primeiro trimestre, porém, acumulou queda de 3,65% em relação ao real.
Segundo analistas, além do fluxo de dólares, outros fatores influenciam a cotação da moeda norte-americana, como o cenário externo (com a alta dos juros nos Estados Unidos, que tende a atrair capital para aquela economia) e o cenário político no Brasil (com o andamento das reformas no Congresso Nacional e as denúncias da Lava Jato).

OPEP. REUTERS. 20/04/2017. Arábia Saudita e Kuweit sinalizam provável extensão de cortes na produção

ABU DHABI (Reuters) - A Arábia Saudita e o Kuweit, grandes produtores de petróleo do Golfo, deram o mais claro sinal até o momento de que a Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo (Opep) planeja estender para o segundo semestre do ano um acordo com países não produtores para reduzir a oferta da commodity.

Tem crescido entre os produtores de petróleo um consenso de que o acordo de restrição da produção deve ser ampliado após o final de seu período inicial de seis meses, mas ainda não há um acordo, disse o ministro de Energia da Arábia Saudita, Khalid al-Falih, nesta quinta-feira.

"Há um consenso sendo construído, mas isso não está concluído ainda", disse ele a jornalistas nos bastidores de uma conferência nos Emirados Árabes Unidos. Questionado sobre a Rússia, que não é da Opep, Falih respondeu: "nós estamos falando com todos países. Nós não alcançamos um acordo certo, mas o consenso está sendo construído."

O ministro de petróleo do Kuweit, Essam al-Marzouq, no mesmo evento, disse que espera uma ampliação do acordo.

"Nós temos um notável aumento no cumprimento do acordo por parte dos países não membros, o que mostra a importância de estender o acordo", disse ele.

"A Rússia está dentro, preliminarmente... o cumprimento do pacto por parte da Rússia é muito bom. Todos irão continuar no mesmo nível", afirmou.

Se a Opep e os produtores não membros decidirem estender seu acordo de seis meses, os cortes podem se tornar menos profundos, uma vez que a demanda por petróleo deverá ser mais forte no segundo semestre de 2017 devido a questões sazonais, segundo Marzouq.

Ele disse ainda que os produtores estão sempre em busca de mais países não membros para se juntar ao acordo, e que um país da África mostrou interesse em participar da iniciativa, sem citar nomes.

(Por Redação Opep; reportagem adicional de Mahmoud Mourad no Cairo)

OPEP. REUTERS. 19/04/2017. Opep e produtores de fora do grupo devem se reunir em maio para decisão sobre cortes

LONDRES (Reuters) - A Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo (Opep) planeja se encontrar com produtores de fora do grupo em 25 de maio, mesmo dia de sua conferência, à medida que decide se irá ou não estender os cortes de produção para a segunda metade do ano, disseram fontes familiarizadas com os acordos.

Ministros da Opep irão se reunir na sede do grupo em Viena. As negociações conjuntas com ministros de fora da Opep também irão acontecer neste dia, disseram duas fontes.

Uma série de importantes membros da Opep, incluindo a Arábia Saudita, apoiam estender os cortes para a segunda metade de 2017 caso todos os produtores participantes, incluindo Rússia e outros países de fora do grupo, concordem, disseram fontes da Opep à Reuters.

"Tudo depende da posição da Rússia", disse um delegado da Opep nesta quarta-feira.

Moscou ainda não declarou se apoia a prorrogação dos cortes, embora o ministro da Energia, Alexander Novak, tenha dito neste mês que a Rússia logo iniciaria consultas com seus próprios produtores sobre a possibilidade de estendê-los.

O plano de fazer as duas reuniões no mesmo dia sugere que a questão será resolvida mais rapidamente do que no ano passado, quando o acordo foi alcançado. A Opep se reuniu em 30 de novembro para decidir seus próprios cortes de produção e a reunião com países de fora do grupo só ocorreu uma semana depois.

(Por Alex Lawler)

CNI. 20/04/2017. Queda dos juros e valorização do real estabilizam custos da indústria. Estudo trimestral da CNI  mostra que custos industriais tiveram alta de apenas 0,1% no quarto trimestre do ano passado. O índice de custo com capital de giro, um dos componentes do indicador, caiu 5,4%



Os custos industriais subiram 0,1% no quarto trimestre de 2016 em relação ao período imediatamente anterior, na série livre de influências sazonais. Foi o segundo trimestre consecutivo de estabilidade no indicador. Mesmo assim, os custos da indústria brasileira subiram, em média, 5,2% no ano passado em relação a 2015. As informações são do Indicador de Custos Industriais, divulgado nesta quinta-feira, 20 de abril, pela Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI).

O Indicador de Custos Industriais é formado pelos índices de custo tributário, de capital de giro e de custos com a produção. De acordo com a CNI, índice de custo tributário caiu 1,0% no quarto trimestre de 2016 na comparação frente ao período imediatamente anterior, na série com ajuste sazonal. Na mesma base de comparação, o índice de custos com capital de giro recuou 5,4%. Foi o terceiro trimestre consecutivo de queda do índice.

O índice de custo com produção subiu 0,5%, puxado pelas despesas com pessoal, que aumentaram 1,1%. Os custos de produção também incluem os custos com energia, que tiveram alta de 0,4%, e com a compra de bens intermediários, com aumento de 0,3% no quarto trimestre na comparação com o terceiro trimestre de 2016, na série de dados dessazonalizados.

A economista da CNI Maria Carolina Marques destaca que a estabilidade dos custos industriais é resultado da queda de alguns custos que subiram muito em 2015 e no início de 2016. "A valorização do real reduziu os custos com insumos importados e a queda dos juros diminuiu os custos com capital de giro. Além disso, na média anual, houve uma pequena queda nos custos com energia", afirma a economista. "Mas as quedas foram pequenas diante dos aumentos expressivos que esses custos tiveram no período anterior, entre 2014 e 2015", lembra.

MARGEM DE LUCRO - Enquanto os custos ficaram praticamente estáveis, os preços dos produtos industrializados subiram 0,5% no quarto trimestre frente ao período imediatamente anterior, com ajuste sazonal. "Esse é o quinto trimestre seguido em que os preços de manufaturados subiram mais que os custos industriais, o que não ocorria desde 2009/2010", observa a CNI. Os preços dos produtos industrializados tiveram uma alta média de 8,2% no ano passado. A diferença em relação aos custos permitiu a recomposição da margem de lucro das empresas.

"As margens de lucro das empresas foram compridas entre o final de 2014 e o final de 2015. O crescimento dos custos abaixo do aumente de preços no período recente contribuem para a indústria se recuperar dessa perda”, afirma Maria Carolina.

Além disso, com a estabilidade dos custos, os produtos brasileiros ganharam competitividade no trimestre, porque os preços em reais dos manufaturados importados subiram 0,6% no quarto trimestre de 2016. No mercado dos Estados Unidos, os preços em reais dos produtos industrializados aumentaram 1,8%. Nos dois casos, a alta, impulsionada pela valorização do real diante do dólar, foi superior aos custos industriais brasileiros, o que aumentou as chances de competição dos produtos nacionais.

Mas esse ganho de competitividade foi insuficiente para compensar as perdas registradas ao longo de 2016. Na comparação com o último trimestre de 2015, os custos industriais brasileiros caíram 0,2%, mas a queda dos preços em reais dos manufaturados importados no mesmo período foi de 19,4%. No mercado dos Estados Unidos, a queda foi de 13,7%.



Indicador de Custos Industriais. Custos industriais permanecem estáveis no 4º trimestre de 2016

O indicador de custos industriais apresentou aumento de 0,1% no quarto trimestre de 2016 em comparação com o terceiro trimestre, marcando o segundo trimestre seguido de relativa estabilidade do indicador.

Indicador de Custos Industriais: https://static-cms-si.s3.amazonaws.com/media/filer_public/5b/8f/5b8fb514-2bc1-434f-8274-a4e9215236c4/indicadordecustosindustriais_outubro-dezembro2016.pdf

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LGCJ.: