US ECONOMICS

DoL. BLS. February 2, 2018. THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JANUARY 2018

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in January, and the unemployment
rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places,
health care, and manufacturing.

Household Survey Data

In January, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The
number of unemployed persons, at 6.7 million, changed little over the month. (See
table A-1. For information about annual population adjustments to the household survey
estimates, see the note at the end of this news release and tables B and C.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Blacks increased to 7.7 percent
in January, and the rate for Whites edged down to 3.5 percent. The jobless rates for
adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (13.9 percent), Asians
(3.0 percent), and Hispanics (5.0 percent) showed little change. (See tables A-1, A-2,
and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little
changed at 1.4 million in January and accounted for 21.5 percent of the unemployed.
(See table A-12.)

The civilian labor force and total employment, as measured by the household survey,
changed little in January (after accounting for the annual adjustments to the
population controls). The labor force participation rate was 62.7 percent for the
fourth consecutive month and the employment-population ratio was 60.1 percent for the
third month in a row. (See table A-1. For additional information about the effects of
the population adjustments, see table C.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as
involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 5.0 million in January.
These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time
because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time
job. (See table A-8.)

In January, 1.7 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little
changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals
were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a
job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they
had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 451,000 discouraged workers in January, little
changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers
are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available
for them. The remaining 1.2 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in
January had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family
responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 200,000 in January. Employment continued to trend
up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing.
(See table B-1. For information about the annual benchmark process, see the note and
table A.)

Construction added 36,000 jobs in January, with most of the increase occurring among
specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Employment in residential building construction
continued to trend up over the month (+5,000). Over the year, construction employment
has increased by 226,000.

Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in January
(+31,000). The industry has added 255,000 jobs over the past 12 months.

Employment in health care continued to trend up in January (+21,000), with a gain of
13,000 in hospitals. In 2017, health care added an average of 24,000 jobs per month.

In January, employment in manufacturing remained on an upward trend (+15,000). Durable
goods industries added 18,000 jobs. Manufacturing has added 186,000 jobs over the past
12 months.

Employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, retail trade,
transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, professional and
business services, and government, changed little over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.2 hour
to 34.3 hours in January. In manufacturing, the workweek declined by 0.2 hour to 40.6
hours, while overtime remained at 3.5 hours. The average workweek for production and
nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.6
hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose
by 9 cents to $26.74, following an 11-cent gain in December. Over the year, average
hourly earnings have risen by 75 cents, or 2.9 percent. Average hourly earnings of
private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 3 cents to $22.34
in January. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised down from
+252,000 to +216,000, and the change for December was revised up from +148,000 to
+160,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December combined
were 24,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional
reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published
estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process
also contributed to the November and December revisions.) After revisions, job gains
have averaged 192,000 over the last 3 months.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

DoS. February 1, 2018. U.S. Engagement in the Western Hemisphere. Remarks. Rex W. Tillerson, Secretary of State. University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Thank you, thank you so much. And thank you, Greg, for that very kind, warm introduction, inviting me back home today. And I want to thank those at the Clements Center of National Security and the Robert Strauss Center for International Security and Law for hosting the event as well.
As Greg mentioned to you, today does mark my one-year anniversary as Secretary of State. A year ago this time, I had entered the State Department, stood on the steps in the foyer, and had my first chance to have a conversation with my newest colleagues and friends in the State Department about things that are important to me and values that I wanted to bring to the State Department. And it’s been a very busy, whirlwind year, but it’s really nice to celebrate it among friends back home as well. So I’m just delighted to be here.

Of course, it’s always a special honor and pleasure to get to speak at your alma mater, and in particular, an institution that houses the presidential library of one of our most storied Texans to serve in Washington.

LBJ bemoaned, as some of you may know, what he considered an East Coast, elitist approach to foreign policy. He once said, “I don’t believe I’ll ever get credit for anything I do in foreign affairs, no matter how successful it is, because I didn’t go to Harvard.” (Laughter.)

I didn’t either, and worse, I’m an engineer. (Laughter.) But I got one up on LBJ: He didn’t go to the University of Texas. (Laughter.)

I have said before that this University shaped me in so many ways, both personal and professional. An interesting story: When I was a freshman in the Longhorn Band, a group of about one hundred members of the band flew down to Peru for a special mission trip. There had been a major earthquake in Peru, and enormous refugee problem coming out of the mountains into the area of Lima. And a group of Texans went down to help raise money and bring awareness to the situation.

It was an extraordinary trip – interestingly, first passport I got. Went to the passport office, got my first passport, first foreign country I ever visited was with the University of Texas Longhorn Band to Peru. And it was interesting; it was a very successful trip. The band was a huge hit down in Lima, and the U.S. ambassador to Peru even expressed he had some concerns that “The Eyes of Texas” was going to replace “The Star Spangled Banner” as the official – (laughter) – anthem at the events. Regrettably, we left for that trip after a loss at the Cotton Bowl, but the Showband of the Southwest won in Peru, I assure you.

So as I look to the coming weeks, when I will return to Peru on my first multi-stop visit to Latin America as Secretary of State, it does feel a bit like coming full circle.

And I’m proud today UT Austin’s Teresa Lozano Long Institute of Latin American Studies, its Mexico Center, and its host of international programs do contribute to educate students about this very important region of the world.

This trip comes at an important time for the Western Hemisphere. This diverse region – which includes Canada, Mexico, South America, and the Caribbean – is a priority for the United States for reasons other than simply our geographic proximity.

We share an interwoven history and chronology. Our nations still reflect the New World optimism of limitless discovery. And importantly, we share democratic values – values that are at the core of what we believe, regardless of the color of our passport.

And for generations, U.S. leaders have understood that building relationships with Latin American and Caribbean partners is integral to the success and prosperity of our region.

In 1889, at the urging of then-Secretary of State James Blaine, the United States hosted the First International Conference of American States – the precursor to today’s OAS, or Organization of American States.

At the beginning of the 20th century, President Teddy Roosevelt visited Panama – the first foreign visit of a U.S. sitting president in our history.

And during the 1960s, President Kennedy established the Alliance for Progress – his ambitious plan to strengthen economic cooperation among the United States and the hemisphere, and to, in his words, “eliminate tyranny from a hemisphere in which it has no rightful place.”

Today, we share these same goals as the visionary leaders before us: to eliminate tyranny and to further the cause of economic and political freedom throughout our hemisphere. As 2018 begins, we have an historic opportunity to do just that.

A few weeks ago, the United States cohosted a ministerial with our counterparts in Canada in Vancouver. Twenty countries joined us to discuss the global threat posed by North Korea.

In April, Peru will host the Summit of the Americas to highlight our region’s commitment to fighting corruption. Two months later, Canada will host the 44th G7 Summit. And at the end of this year, the G20 states will convene in Buenos Aires, the first South American city ever to host.

So in many ways, 2018 marks the year of the Americas. Many of the world’s leaders will be in this hemisphere, and as such, the eyes of the world will turn to the Americas.

So today I want to focus on three pillars of engagement to further the cause of freedom throughout our region in 2018 and beyond: economic growth, security, and democratic governance.

The hemisphere has significant potential for greater economic growth and prosperity. We will build upon the solid foundation of economic cooperation with our Latin American and Caribbean partners. Brazil, for instance, is the region’s largest economy and the ninth largest in the world. The United States is Brazil’s second-largest trading partner, with two-way trade at record highs in recent years totaling more than $95 billion in 2015.

The United States has free trade agreements with 20 countries; 12 of those countries are in the Western Hemisphere. And every year, the United States trades almost $2 trillion worth of goods and services with Latin America and Caribbean nations, supporting more than 2.5 million jobs here at home. Instead of a trade deficit, we actually have a $14 billion trade surplus with the hemisphere.

But today we have an opportunity to further our economic partnership and the prosperity of the peoples in this hemisphere.

An important step to strengthen North American economic prosperity and integration is to modernize the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA.

I’m a Texan, former energy executive, and I’m also a rancher. I understand how important NAFTA is for our economy and that of the continent. But it should come as no surprise that an agreement put into place 30 years ago, before the advent of the digital age and the digital economy, before China’s rise as the world’s second-largest economy – that NAFTA would need to be modernized.

Our aim is simple: to strengthen our economy and that of all of North America, to remain the most competitive, economically vibrant region in the world.

We appreciate the hard work of our Mexican and Canadian counterparts throughout these negotiations. Last week, we concluded round six, and we will continue to work toward a modernized agreement with another round scheduled next month.

Building greater prosperity by integrating the wealth of energy resources within the hemisphere is an opportunity that is unique in the world to the Americas.

Over the past decade, North America has been leading an energy renaissance.

By 2040, North America is expected to add more oil production to the global markets than the entire rest of the world combined and more gas production than any other single region. The flow of crude oil, natural gas, refined products, and electricity already crosses our borders in both directions, leading to greater reliability, more efficiency, and lower costs to consumers.

Our continent has become the energy force for this century, thanks in large part to rapid expansion in natural gas and tight oil production, and, of course, thanks to some great engineers, many produced right here at UT.

The rest of the hemisphere can use the North American experience as a model. We see a future where energy connectivity from Canada to Chile can build out and seize upon energy integration throughout the Americas, delivering greater energy security to the hemisphere and stability to growing economies.

South America is blessed with abundant energy resources. Colombia, Peru, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina all have significant undeveloped oil and natural gas. The United States is eager to help our partners develop their own resources safely, responsibly, as energy demand continues to grow.

Excuse me.

Our hemispheric energy trade is already beginning to meet these needs: 36 percent of U.S. liquefied natural gas exports since 2016 have landed in Latin America. That’s more than any other region in the world.

Between now and 2030, Latin America is expected to spend at least $70 billion on new electric power generation plants to fuel economic growth. Many of those plants will be powered by natural gas. The United States should be a substantive and reliable supplier.

By building out a more flexible and robust energy system in our hemisphere, we can power our economies with affordable energy. We can lift more people out of poverty. And we can make our hemisphere the undisputed seat of global energy supply. To support and capture this opportunity requires the opening of more market economies.

The opening of energy markets in Mexico, for example, has led to greater private investment, more competition, and more energy trade with the United States than ever before. Truly, a win-win.

Further south, we are partnering with Central America to strengthen its regional electricity market and modernize its grid. Creating stronger Central American economies by lowering energy cost is critical to building a more secure Central America.

We have the chance to develop an energy partnership that spans the Western Hemisphere, to the benefit of all of our citizens. We cannot afford to squander this moment.

A transition to more market-based economic reforms are not limited to the energy sector. Argentina, under President Macri’s leadership, has made monumental strides in delivering reforms to open the Argentine economy and pursue growth for all Argentinians. Its historically high inflation rate is finally decreasing. GDP is going up, spurred on by investment and soaring consumer confidence.

And one week after the U.S. Congress passed landmark tax reform policy, Argentina’s legislature took action to overhaul their tax system as well. All of these efforts are making the second-largest economy in South America ripe for more investment and growth. We hope more countries take a similar path – to help the entire hemisphere grow in prosperity.

But for prosperity to take root, we must create the conditions for regional stability.

Economic development and security reinforce each other. When individuals are living in poverty, a life of crime can look like the only opportunity available to make a living. Legal and illegal immigration increases as people look for more opportunity elsewhere. And innocent people are more likely to become victims of drug cartels, human traffickers, and corrupt law enforcement authorities.

The United States approach is holistic – we must address security and development issues side by side. You cannot expect to have one without the other.

The most immediate threat to our hemisphere are transnational criminal organizations, or TCOs. In their pursuit of money and power, TCOs leave death and destruction in their wake. As humans, weapons, opioids, and other drugs are smuggled, law enforcement and civilians become the targets.

Here at home, Americans do not necessarily see the day-to-day violence that is – violence that is so common in other parts of our hemisphere. But U.S. demand for drugs drives this violence and this lawlessness.

We acknowledge our role as the major market for illicit drug consumption and the need for shared approaches to address these challenges. The opioid epidemic we are facing in this country is a clear, tragic representation of how interconnected our hemisphere truly is. Violence and drugs do not stop at our southern border.

That is why we continue to employ a coordinated, multilateral approach to diminish the influence of these groups. It is time we rid our hemisphere of the violence and devastation that they promote.

I co-chair a high-level dialogue with Foreign Secretary Videgaray of Mexico to discuss new and strategic ways to disrupt TCOs. We must take new approaches to disrupt their business models – models of cartels which operate much like any other business organization that maximizes their value chain from feedstock to manufacturing to distribution to marketing and sales.

The second meeting of our dialogue was held in Washington this past December, which included Secretary Nielsen of the Department of Homeland Security and Attorney General Jeff Sessions, as well as our Mexican counterparts. We also had with us law enforcement representatives from both countries.

Dismantling TCOs is not just a diplomatic issue. Obviously, it requires integrating the skills and expertise of law enforcement to interdict shipments of illegal drugs, attack the revenue streams and the weapons feeding TCOs, and to track down and prosecute the middlemen who enable them.

Close collaboration among multiple agencies – within our own government, and with our international partners – is essential. The way we combat threats to our southern border security is to work collaboratively with Mexico to strengthen Mexico’s southern border.

Through the Merida Initiative – a partnership between the United States and Mexico focused on improving security and the rule of law – the United States is providing assistance to build the capacity of Mexican law enforcement and judicial institutions. By providing inspection equipment, canine units, and training, we equip law enforcement officers with tools to eradicate opium poppy production, tighten border security, and disrupt trafficking activities – not just in drugs but in trafficking of humans. By improving cross-border communications, we make both sides of the border safer.

And our security partnerships extend beyond just our southern border or Mexico’s southern border.

Colombia has been one of our strongest partners in the region. Following decades of long internal battle with Revolutionary Forces of the FARC, Colombia has charted a pathway to peace. We continue to support this sustainable peace, but challenges do remain. Colombia is the world’s largest producer of cocaine – the source of 92 percent of the cocaine seized in the United States.

Last year, and with U.S. support, Colombian police and military forces eradicated 130,000 acres of coca fields – the highest number since 2010. The same year, Colombian forces seized nearly 500 metric tons of cocaine.

There is more work ahead. Regrettably, coca cultivation has skyrocketed in recent years. In 2016, more than 460,000 acres in Colombia were used for coca cultivation – a record. We remain a very – we remain and keep a very open and frank dialogue with the Government of Colombia to address the eradication of this very large feedstock for cocaine and to identify alternative cash crops to support rural Colombian farmers.

In Central America, through the Alliance for Prosperity, we support countries as they address security and economic development in tandem. Last June in Miami, the State Department and the Department of Homeland Security, along with our Mexican counterparts, cohosted the Conference on Prosperity and Security in Central America. Through many productive conversations with public and private sector leaders across the region, opportunities were identified to help Central American countries grow their economies, strengthen their institutions, and better protect their people. More opportunities for Central Americans will weaken the hold of transnational criminal organizations, address the underlying causes of legal and illegal immigration, and result in less violence. That makes their nations stronger, and it makes ours safer.

And through the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative, partners along our third border, the Gulf of Mexico, are increasing their ability to perform maritime interdictions, rein in illegal firearms, counter corruption, and prosecute criminals. Over the summer we submitted our Caribbean 2020 Plans. This comprehensive strategy fosters closer security cooperation and reaffirms our commitment to encourage private sector growth and diversification of energy resources, creating energy security in the Caribbean. We also maintain our partnerships in education and health initiatives, including PEPFAR, the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

The United States knows that our country – and the rest of the region – benefits from greater regional stability and the prospect of a growing economy throughout the hemisphere.

The United States’ partnership with nations in the hemisphere is founded on shared values and democratic governance, but we cannot take it for granted. Many still live under the oppression of tyranny.

The corrupt and hostile regime of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela clings to a false dream and antiquated vision for the region that has already failed its citizens. It does not represent the vision of millions of Venezuelans – or in any way comport with the norms of our Latin American, Canadian, or Caribbean partners.

Our position has not changed. We urge Venezuela to return to its constitution – to return to free, open, and democratic elections – and to allow the people of Venezuela a voice in their government. We will continue to pressure the regime to return to the democratic process that made Venezuela a great country in the past.

Venezuela stands in stark contrast to the future of stability pursued by so many others in the hemisphere. The great tragedy is that although Venezuela could be one of the most prosperous countries in the region, it is one of the poorest in the world. Venezuela GDP growth in 2004 was as high as 18 percent. Ten years later, it is nearly a negative 4 percent – all the result of man-made collapse.

Venezuela boasts the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but riches are reserved only for the ruling elites. As a consequence, the people suffer. Venezuelans are starving, looting is common, and the sick do not receive the medical attention they desperately need. Venezuelans are dying of malnutrition and disease.

There has been no natural disaster – nothing like that earthquake that took me to Peru. The Venezuelan people suffer because of a corrupt regime that steals from its own people. The Maduro regime is squarely to blame and must be held to account.

The United States has imposed sanctions on more than 40 current or former Venezuelan government officials – individuals who support Maduro and his efforts to undermine democracy.

Over the past year, we have worked with many of our Latin American partners – through the Lima Group and the Organization of American States in particular – to build support for coordinated action to counter the country’s slide into dictatorship. We appreciate the Lima Group of major regional leaders who have met regularly to support the Venezuelan people’s quest to regain their country.

Canada too has sanctioned dozens of Venezuelan leaders, including Maduro himself.

And recently, the European Union joined the growing global chorus to sanction leaders in the regime for human rights abuses.

The world is waking to the plight of the Venezuelan people.

We encourage all nations to support the Venezuelan people. The time has come to stand with freedom-loving nations, those that support the Venezuelan people, or choose to stand with the Maduro dictatorship, if that is your choice.

Elsewhere we will continue to encourage others in the region, like Cuba, who disregard their people and ignore this democratic moment in Latin America, to give their people the freedom that they deserve.

Cuba has an opportunity in their own transfer of power from decades of the Castro regime to take a new direction. In June, President Trump laid out a new vision for our approach to Cuba – one that supports the Cuban people by steering economic activity away from the military, intelligence, and security service which disregard their freedom.

The administration’s policy – as written in the National Security Presidential Memorandum – also seeks to, quote, “ensure that the engagement between the United States and Cuba advances the interests of the United States and that of the Cuban people.”

It includes advancing human rights and encouraging the nascent private sector in Cuba. The future of our relationship is up to Cuba – the United States will continue to support the Cuban people in their struggle for freedom.

Venezuela and Cuba remind us that for our hemisphere to grow and thrive, we must prioritize and promote democratic values.

We must root out corruption in all of its forms. Ineffective, corrupt governance damages countries. The economy suffers. People lose faith in institutions. And crime increases.

Recent steps taken against corruption in Guatemala, Peru, the Dominican Republic, and Brazil underscore the importance of directly addressing it.

In Guatemala, we continue to support the CICIG – a UN body created in 2006 – to uphold the rule of law, strengthen accountability, and independently investigate illegal, corrupt activity affecting government institutions.

2018 should be the year countries in the Western Hemisphere restore their trust with their people, the people they represent, and take serious anti-corruption action.

Earlier as I mentioned the Summit of the Americas, hosted by Peru – will be hosted by Peru in April. We wholeheartedly support this year’s theme: “Democratic Governance Against Corruption.” And we encourage every nation in the region to fully embrace it.

Encouraging transparency, increasing accountability, rooting out corruption – all of these are essential to creating a sound economy for the region, promoting security, and protecting our values.

Strong institutions and governments that are accountable to their people also secure their sovereignty against potential predatory actors that are now showing up in our hemisphere.

China – as it does in emerging markets throughout the world – offers the appearance of an attractive path to development. But in reality, this often involves trading short-term gains for long-term dependency.

Just think about the difference between the China model of economic development and the United States version.

China’s offer always come at a price – usually in the form of state-led investments, carried out by imported Chinese labor, onerous loans, and unsustainable debt. The China model extracts precious resources to feed its own economy, often with disregard for the laws of the land or human rights.

Today, China is gaining a foothold in Latin America. It is using economic statecraft to pull the region into its orbit. The question is: At what price?

China is now the largest trading partner of Chile, Argentina, Brazil, and Peru. While this trade has brought benefits, the unfair trading practices used by many Chinese have also harmed these countries’ manufacturing sectors, generating unemployment and lowering wages for workers.

Latin American – Latin America does not need new imperial powers that seek only to benefit their own people. China’s state-led model of development is reminiscent of the past. It doesn’t have to be this hemisphere’s future.

Russia’s growing presence in the region is alarming as well, as it continues to sell arms and military equipment to unfriendly regimes who do not share or respect democratic values.

Our region must be diligent to guard against faraway powers who do not reflect the fundamental values shared in this region.

The United States stands in vivid contrast.

We do not seek short-term deals with lopsided returns. We seek partners with shared values and visions to create a safe, secure, and prosperous hemisphere.

The U.S. approach is based on mutually beneficial goals to help both sides grow, develop and become more prosperous, and do so by respecting international law, prioritizing the interests of our partners, and protecting our values.

With the United States, you have a multidimensional partner – one that benefits both sides with engagement to support economic growth, education, innovation, and security.

This year the United States is eager to create even deeper relationships with Latin America and Caribbean partners, with the aim of expanding freedom to more people.

We have a tremendous opportunity to build upon our shared history, culture, and values to generate more opportunity, more stability, more prosperity, and more resilient governance in South America, Central America, North America, and the Caribbean.

In this year of the Americas, the United States will continue to be the Western Hemisphere’s steadiest, strongest, and most enduring partner. Thank you for your kind attention. (Applause.)

MR INBODEN: Well, as many of you know, my name is Will Inboden. I’m the executive director of the Clements Center and a professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs, a couple of your hosts for today. And honored to have so many of our students here in the audience, and we’re going to be hearing from a few of those students in a little bit.
Mr. Secretary, as you and I were visiting out back beforehand, we were remembering the first time we met was a couple years ago, and at that time, you were in the private sector and I had given a foreign policy speech to a group of UT alums, of whom you were in the audience. And as we recalled, you asked me some very probing questions in that – after my lecture, and I don’t --

SECRETARY TILLERSON: (Laughter.) What goes around comes around, I guess.

MR INBODEN: That’s right. I – the tables have turned, sir. I don’t think either of us expected two years later we’d be here on the one-year anniversary of being Secretary, so, anyway, so my turn to ask some questions. I’m going to ask the Secretary a few questions, we’ll have a colloquy here, and then we’re going to hear from a few of our students as well.

So, Mr. Secretary, I’m a historian by training, and whenever I’m looking at current foreign policy issues, I always like to think about the historical context. And as our history students here will know, in a few years, we celebrate the 200th anniversary of the Monroe Doctrine, which, for a very young United States, was our assertion of – our efforts to keep European colonial powers out of the Western Hemisphere to protect our security but also to promote the three pillars of the speech you talked about today: security, liberty, and prosperity.

So, you as Secretary, you kind of inherit that 200-year tradition. Looking back, how would you regard the Monroe Doctrine? Has it been more of a success or a failure, especially as you look at our challenges today?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, I think it clearly has been a success, because as I mentioned at the top, what binds us together in this hemisphere are shared democratic values, and while different countries may express that democracy not precisely the same way we practice democracy in this country, the fundamentals of it – respect for the dignity of the human being, respect for the individual to pursue life, liberty, happiness – those elements do bind us together in this hemisphere. So I think it clearly was an important commitment at the time, and I think over the years, that has continued to frame the relationship.

Having said that, it’s easy for the United States as a country, because of our size and our engagements with so many countries and regions around the world, to, through nothing more than just perhaps a period of neglect, to let certain relationships atrophy a bit. And we’ve gone – I think we’ve gone through those periods of time in our history as well, and if you look back and whether – you can go by individual country or regionally as well, due to other events, sometimes I think we have forgotten about the importance of the Monroe Doctrine and what it meant to this hemisphere and maintaining those shared values. So I think it’s as relevant today as it was the day it was written.

MR INBODEN: Okay, cool. John Quincy Adams would be happy to hear that, so. (Laughter.) You mentioned in your speech NAFTA and the ongoing renegotiations and efforts to bring it up to speed, and it was on the presidential campaign trail in 1980 that candidate Ronald Reagan was the first American political leader to call for a North American free trade accord, which soon thereafter became NAFTA.

So as you mentioned, we’ve been living with this vision and this reality for quite a while. As we’re – as our country is in the midst of the NAFTA renegotiations, what would you describe as the – what have been the strengths and the weaknesses of NAFTA as currently constituted?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, I think – again, and as I mentioned, when it was put in place 30 years ago, the world was a bit of a different place. Supply chains didn’t function the way they do today – again, I mention the advent of the digital age, the digital economy, which has completely disrupted supply chains and how they function. The rise of China now as the second largest economy in the world, and China growing its economy by spreading out its own trading relationships – all of those have had an impact on NAFTA’s ability to respond – the agreement.

And that’s why I think – we think about it as a need to modernize the agreement. I think the strength of building upon the fact that with shared borders, there are clear efficiencies to be gained that serve all three countries well and creates more value, and that’s – in the global world of competition and trade, and whether you’re building automobiles or whatever you’re manufacturing or whatever you’re doing agriculturally, you are competing with others. And when we can integrate the strengths of these three countries that share this border – if we can lower our cost of supply by that much, we just won, we just beat the other trading partners.

And I think – and that was always the vision in the beginning, and I think where it’s – where it’s having trouble and struggling today is because it’s not been able to respond to that outside competitive force as effectively as perhaps it should. So we’re hoping we can get to a modernized agreement. I’m not directly engaged in those negotiations; I stay close to them because they do intersect with our foreign policy agenda as well. I can tell you it’s – these are tough negotiations, and I’m sure some of you are hearing about that, but the parties are continuing to work, I think, towards a solution that serves all three countries’ interests well, but then collectively achieves the subjective of collectively making us the most competitive trading entity in the world.

MR INBODEN: So I want to come back to another country that you mentioned towards the end of your – end of your speech, and that’s Cuba, one of the two remaining tyrannies in the region along with Venezuela. President Trump has been quite critical of the Obama administration’s previous normalization process with Cuba, with the Castro regime. But as you mentioned in June when the President announced some new regulations – or a few months ago, in November when he announced some new regulations, some Cuban American groups worried that those didn’t go far enough in reversing the previous administration’s policies. So what would you say are your strategic priorities towards Cuba going forward?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, as I mentioned, they’re – they will be going through a transfer of power – supposed to this year, we’ll see whether it happens this year or not, but – and this will be, in all likelihood, the first transfer of power that Cuba has not been led under a Castro regime, so that we think there are opportunities, perhaps, for – an opportunity to shift towards a more open and democratic future. That’s what we’re hoping.

With respect to our objectives with Cuba, and the – I think President Trump’s analysis – and I agree with it – of the terms with Cuba that were in place when we took office, that an awful lot had been given to the Cuban Government, and not much had been received in return, other than a clear economic opportunity for U.S. business interests, which is great.

But that was coming on the backs of the Cuban people, who are still very repressed. So we have taken a shift, we preserved a lot of that, but basically said, “Yes, we do want to support the Cuban people.” We’re not interested in supporting the Cuban regime. And as you know, the government and the security forces and others have a significant presence in almost all economic activity. So one of our objectives was to separate that and allow the Cuban people to have a more full, rewarding participation in that economy, and limit what we’re – what the government is benefiting from through their ownership.

So that was one of the significant changes, but again, it’s all – it’s all directed at how do we help the Cuban people. That’s what we want to do is help the Cuban people, and we are hopeful, and we stay – we do stay engaged with the Cuban authorities that – in this transition, can they find their way to maybe a different future? I don’t know. We’ll see.

MR INBODEN: Yeah, we’ll see. Great. Well, as a professor, I could go on all day with more and more of my questions, this and that, but I think we’ll all be a little more interested to hear from some of our students. So we’ve got a number of students with questions for you.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Okay.

MR INBODEN: And we’ve got microphones that are coming down the alleys, and all the rest of you, if you’re not a student, sorry, no questions from you. (Laughter.)

All right, let’s see. First one up, we’ve got Patricia Zavala, so – Patricia, where are you? So – that’s right, there you go. Galen, the mike to Patricia, so – and please identify your degree program and school, that’s right.

QUESTION: Hello, Secretary Tillerson. My name is Patricia Zavala. I’m a dual-degree master’s student at the LBJ School of Public Affairs, and the Lozano Long Institute of Latin American Studies. And my question is about corruption in Latin America, which is something that you touched on in your speech. Given the effect that corruption has in undermining public institutions and impeding the effective implementation of the administration’s policy priorities, what can the U.S. do to combat the endemic corruption in the region?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, now I mentioned a number – we have a number of initiatives and funding programs working directly with individual countries – the U.S. directly but also using other UN and other international organizations to, first and foremost, strengthen the judicial systems. If we can get judicial systems and judges that are not corruptible, then you can begin to prosecute cases of corruption and punish people, and then that begins to dissuade them. And that is – that’s the approach. Now, that does then raise significant risk for those judges, so hand in glove with it goes strengthening law enforcement and security in the region and in those countries to protect those who are taking action to eradicate corruption. And there is – without question, there’s an intersection of a lot of the trans-criminal organizations with the corruption as well to facilitate their narcotics activities, their human trafficking activities, other kind of illicit smuggling.

So it is quite – it’s quite challenging, but we’ve made a lot of progress in Central America with these initiatives using – and in Mexico with the Merida Initiative that I mentioned – those are all specifically targeted at exactly the issue that you’re asking about, but it is strengthening judicial systems, getting judges in place that will act in accordance with their law, in some cases passing new prosecutorial laws that make it easier to prosecute corruption. A lot of these are evidentiary laws. If you don’t have good evidentiary laws, you can’t make the case for a prosecution – and then creating an environment where these judges can do their job, recognizing that some of them are going to come under threat.

So it’s very targeted, and we try to go country by country as to what is best needed there. But both in Mexico and in Latin America, it’s a significant undertaking. That really is what’s necessary to create the kind of environment then to allow economic prosperity, growth, job creation. That’s what keeps everybody at home.

MR INBODEN: All right, thanks. All right, our next question from Juan Gonzalez-Rivera.

QUESTION: Hello, Mr. Secretary of State.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Hello, Juan.

QUESTION: My question is – first, I’m a Fulbright student from Colombia. I’m a candidate for PhD in chemical engineering, so my question is about --

MR INBODEN: Future ExxonMobil. (Laughter.)

QUESTION: My question is about your science --

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Or future State Department. (Laughter.)

MR INBODEN: That’s right, that’s right. Okay.

QUESTION: About your science diplomacy agenda. So in your upcoming travel to Latin America, will there be a science strategic agenda to foster scientific cooperation in topics of interest to the region, or other topics of interest to the region such as food security, infectious diseases, and, of course, the environment?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, I think, as you point – you just touched on areas that are obvious for cooperation and scientific investigation, and certainly the – South America in particular has some incredibly rich ecology areas, things that we can learn a lot about what’s happening with the environment, what’s happening with the planet, what is the effect of climate change that we’re seeing. And so yes, there are important joint scientific efforts for us to fund, send our own scientists there, but also bring scientists from Latin and South America to our institutions in the United States – and like yourself – to study and share, grow, and either go back home to continue that work or stay here. So it’s – there are environmental issues of interest, there are diseases that are of particular interest in certain environments in particular, and that’s why we have a very active PEPFAR program. As you know, it’s AIDS, but it’s also malaria and a few other infectious diseases that are important.

So it is an opportunity for us to talk about how are those collaborations that are in place going, what could we do to either strengthen those or expand them, and what new areas of investigation might be of interest to both of us. Certainly, the strong educational ties between our two countries and the fact that you’re here studying at the University of Texas – and congratulations on being a Fulbright scholar – those are the strong connections that down the road – and these are the people-to-people connections – that are going to keep our countries very, very close together in terms of our values as well. And all the best to you.

MR INBODEN: All right. Okay, another student question. We’ve got Sean Salome there. The microphone’s coming down. And Mr. Secretary, Sean, who’s about to ask you the question, he’s one of our Clements Center undergraduates. He’ll tell you what he’s studying, but he’s also a Marine vet who did a couple of deployments in Colombia.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: God bless you.

QUESTION: Thank you. Good afternoon, Secretary. Thank you for having us. Colombia’s facing a crossroads right now. Its neighbor to the east, Venezuela, is deteriorating as its continued government is strangulating the people. We’re having mass migration of Venezuelans enter Colombia. Internally, Colombia’s government and the ELN have failed peace talks, and these issues may very well lead to social unrest and economic turmoil for Colombians. How does this U.S. plan – or U.S. aid plan on aiding the Colombian people, and should the FARC be part of this process? Thank you.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, as you know, they have a very prescribed process to work through the implementation of the peace accord, and I would share your observation that it has stalled a bit. They were making good progress and now some areas that are important seem to have hit a pause. That’s one of the areas we will be talking with the Santos government about: How can we get those restarted, continue the – we think it’s important to continue to implement the peace accord if we’re going to secure the peace that has been negotiated with the FARC, FLN[1].

You are correct in terms of Colombia is probably the most impacted country from the Venezuelan crisis. Something between 200- and 300,000 Venezuelans have now left Venezuela, living in Colombia as refugees, basically, but another couple of hundred thousand that are going back and forth all the time, just seeking food and medical treatment in particular. We have attempted to provide certain medical equipment – vaccines and others – to the Venezuelan Government so these people don’t have to leave to get their treatments. The Venezuelan Government refuses to take that aid. Maduro does not want to appear that he needs it. We’re going to continue to work at that.

So it is a – it’s a real problem for Colombia and it has the potential to destabilize Colombia, which is why continuing to move forward on the peace implementation is so important, so it doesn’t create a new area of instability and all the parties go back to their corners and we’re right where we were.

We have a lot of confidence in the Santos government, and we know they have elections coming up, but we believe the government is very committed to following through on implementing the peace accord. We need to encourage them and help where we can in that regard.

The problem with the coca production is – it’s a significant problem. It’s a problem to us, it’s a shared problem. As I said in my remarks, we don’t like to admit it, but we’re the market. The United States accounts for the vast, vast, vast majority of illicit drug consumption in the world. And until we address that problem at home, it’s a bit awkward to hold them solely accountable for being the supplier. So that’s why we’re working through these integrated dialogues to put the whole supply chain together. Let’s own the consumption problem. We have to own that. They need to own the supply side.

So in Colombia we’ve got a lot of issues to deal with, but we also think Colombia is an enormous country of opportunity, and they have everything they need to be wildly successful, and we believe they can be and they will be, and we just need to support them and encourage them to get on with implementing the peace accords.

Thank you for the question.

MR INBODEN: All right. And then next question is from Alyson (ph), Alyson (inaudible). Yeah. The mike is going to you. Remember, please identify your degree program. Thanks.

QUESTION: Hi, Secretary Tillerson. Thanks so much for taking our questions. My name is Alyson Swadic (ph). I’m a second-year master of public affairs student at the LBJ School of Public Affairs. My question is about the Merida Initiative, the security partnership between the U.S. and Mexico that you alluded to in your speech. You mentioned the importance of rule of law and fighting organized crime. Congress appropriated $2.8 billion to the Merida Initiative in 2008, but there’s $1 billion left to spend. How do you think the U.S. should best spend that money in order to promote security for both nations?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, in order to spend the money we also need the cooperation with the Mexican Government of where – where do they agree we can help them the most. So oftentimes the pace of that is coming to agreement with them on where they are willing, and we can work with them.

We continue to believe that we can provide them significant training in law enforcement because they need – they need more law enforcement personnel, training of people to build their forces up, and new kinds of training to deal with the cartels in particular. Regrettably, the cartels are – have become more powerful. They are extremely well armed. Most of those arms are coming from the United States. So we have a huge weapons interdiction effort underway as well. This is why we have Department of Homeland Security involved. Interestingly, for about every 10 trucks that we inspect coming north, because we’re worried about what’s coming to see us, we only inspect one truck going south. And so we have committed to them that we will do a better job of interdicting weapons flowing in.

So I think it’s – it is through this joint dialogue we’re having with them to identify looking at what is – what are all elements of this supply chain? Where can we best attack that? What are the capabilities we need? And then we have some funds to address that. So it is going to be, I think, law enforcement, some ability to – for them to collect intelligence themselves on where these labs are. We destroyed, I think, about 134 labs last year through some information sharing, and when we identify them, the Mexican forces have been going in to destroy those. So I think we have a – or we’ve got, unfortunately, too many opportunities where we can apply the joint effort, and we have the resources, the money, to do that. Thank you.

MR INBODEN: Thanks. All right. All right. Another student question. Yeah, Evan.

QUESTION: Secretary Tillerson, thank you very much. My name is Evan McCormick. I’m a post-doctoral fellow at the Clements Center. During the political crisis in Venezuela last year, the State Department vocally backed the Organization for American States’ criticisms of the Venezuelan electoral system. In December, however, the State Department recognized the re-election of Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez in spite similar – in spite of similar criticisms from the OAS regarding electoral irregularities and calling for or recommending a new election.

My question is: What is the Trump administration’s policy regarding support for free and fair democratic elections in the Americas, and will it work with the OAS in ensuring that those democratic standards are respected equally across the hemisphere?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, our position’s the same in every country. And in the case of the Honduran elections, we also looked at other organizations’ assessment of the election in terms of was it conducted in a free and fair way, was the election legitimate. In terms of why the OAS came to a different conclusion – which was actually different than the original conclusion they came to, they changed their position – I’d refer you to the OAS to ask them. But we did look at the circumstances of the election. We concluded it was conducted fairly. And I think there’s no – and I want to be clear here. There can be no comparison between the election process that was conducted in Honduras and the election process that’s going on in Venezuela. They’re nowhere close to one another. Thank you for the question, though.

MR INBODEN: All right, okay. And one more student question. Let’s do Abigail (ph). Right there, Diana (ph). Yeah, thanks.

QUESTION: Good afternoon, Mr. Secretary, and thank you for spending part of your day with us. My name is Abigail Griffin and I am senior studying Plan II Honors government and Middle Eastern languages and cultures. I have a question regarding Venezuela. So a commonly proposed solution to a lot of the problems in the country is the removal of President Maduro from power. In your opinion, is this removal necessary, and what could the U.S.’s role be in the possible regime change, especially considering the turmoil that could surmount from such a change?

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, President Maduro could choose to just leave. I mean, that would – (laughter). That’d be the easiest. We have not advocated for regime change or removal of President Maduro; rather, we have advocated that they return to the constitution. We do not recognize the constituent assembly as legitimate, and they need to get back to the constitution and follow the constitution.

We – I think there will be a change. We want it to be a peaceful change. Peaceful transitions, peaceful regime change is always better than the alternative of violent change. In the history of Venezuela and in fact the history in other Latin American and South American countries, oftentimes it’s the military that handles that, that when things are so bad that the military leadership realizes they just – they can’t serve the citizens anymore, they will manage a peaceful transition. Whether that will be the case here or not, I do not know. Again, our position is Maduro should get back to his constitution and follow it. And then, if he is not re-elected by the people, so be it. And if the kitchen gets a little too hot for him, I’m sure that he’s got some friends over in Cuba that can give him a nice hacienda on the beach, and he can have a nice life over there. (Laughter.)

MR INBODEN: All right. Well, our time is drawing to the close. I know the Secretary needs to head off on the next leg of his very ambitious journey here. But Mr. Secretary, one final question from the moderator here.

As a native Texan, you know here that here in Texas we have very strong concerns about border security, and I can – I think I can speak for almost everyone here in the room that when we look at our state’s borders, especially SUT folks, our biggest concern is the threat from Oklahoma. (Laughter.) So especially the Sooners football team. So you’ve got a captive audience. What advice do you have for Coach Herman, and what are we going to do to beat OU this fall? (Laughter.)

SECRETARY TILLERSON: Well, I think I can help him. (Laughter.) We just need to get in place a visa program for the Red River – (laughter) – and we just won’t issue any visas to the Oklahoma football team. (Laughter and applause.)

MR INBODEN: Thank you.

SECRETARY TILLERSON: I’m really not worried. I’m really not worried because University of Texas is going to beat Oklahoma this year.

MR INBODEN: There’s tomorrow’s headline. All right, okay. (Applause.) All right, okay. All right, all right. Everybody please join me in welcoming and thanking Secretary Tillerson. Thank you so much, sir. That was awesome. (Applause.)

And everybody, before you leave, we’ve got a little sendoff for you from the Secretary’s – the Secretary’s old bandmates, his old friends. So stay with us for a couple minutes. Can’t leave without a song. So that’s right.

________________

BALANÇA COMERCIAL BRASILEIRA EM JANEIRO/2018

MDIC. PORTAL BRASIL. 01/02/2018. ECONOMIA E EMPREGO. Balança comercial. Balança comercial registra melhor janeiro em 12 anos, diz MDIC. Dados divulgados nesta quinta-feira (1°) pelo Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços mostram que os bons desempenhos comerciais do Brasil continuam em 2018

Depois de registrar recorde histórico na balança comercial no ano passado, com um saldo de US$ 67 bilhões, a balança comercial brasileira voltou a registrar resultados positivos. Em janeiro, o saldo comercial atingiu US$ 2,768 bilhões, o maior valor para o mês em 12 anos.

Isso significa que as exportações de produtos brasileiros superaram as importações ao longo do mês de janeiro. Segundo dados divulgados pelo Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços (MDIC), isso ocorreu devido a um aumento de 13,8% nas exportações na comparação com o mesmo mês do ano passado.

Em janeiro, tiveram destaque o aumento de vendas de aviões (+474,4%), óleos combustíveis (+323,4%), açúcar refinado, algodão em bruto (+166,1%), milho em grão (+92,4%), cátodos de cobre (+207,1%), madeira serrada (+103%), entre outros.

MDIC. 01 de Fevereiro de 2018. Exportações crescem puxadas por bens industrializados em janeiro. Embarques totalizaram US$ 17 bilhões, valor recorde histórico para o primeiro mês do ano. O resultado foi impulsionado pela venda de manufaturados, cuja elevação atingiu 23,6%

Brasília, 1º de fevereiro – No primeiro mês do ano, o superávit da balança comercial alcançou US$ 2,8 bilhões, o segundo melhor resultado da série histórica, iniciada em 1989, para meses de janeiro. Os dados foram divulgados hoje pelo Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços (MDIC). As exportações totalizaram US$ 16,968 bilhões, resultado recorde para o período e que representou um crescimento de 13,8% em relação a janeiro de 2017. As importações somaram US$ 14,199 bilhões, com um aumento de 16,4% na comparação o mesmo mês do ano passado.

As exportações tiveram crescimento tanto em relação aos preços (0,81%) quanto às quantidades (12,9%), em todas as categorias de produtos. Entretanto, o resultado positivo foi puxado especialmente pela venda de manufaturados, que no período registraram alta de 23,6%. “Esse aumento das quantidades exportadas está principalmente relacionado ao aquecimento da demanda mundial”, explica o diretor de Estatísticas e Apoio às Exportações, Herlon Brandão. “O PIB mundial cresceu mais de 3% em 2017 e espera-se que ocorra crescimento nessa ordem em 2018”, acrescenta.

Houve crescimento nos embarques de aviões (474%), óleos combustíveis (323%), açúcar refinado (294%) e máquinas para terraplanagem (171%), entre outros produtos. “A economia mundial aquecida demanda produtos brasileiros. Por outro lado, o Brasil tem aumentado a sua produção, principalmente de bens agrícolas, de petróleo, de minério. O investimento nessas áreas faz com que o país tenha excedente para ser exportado”, afirma Brandão.

O mês de janeiro também apresentou resultado expressivo nas importações, que tiveram aumento, em volume, de cerca de 10%. Cresceram nesse período as compras de combustíveis e lubrificantes (96,3%), de bens de consumo (19,2%), de bens de capital (11,4%) e de bens intermediários (5,8%).

A expectativa é que as importações se mantenham aquecidas ao longo do ano.  “Esperamos que as importações cresçam a taxas superiores a das exportações em 2018. A expectativa de crescimento do PIB é de 3%, o que deve incentivar a importação de bens. Isso vai fazer com que o saldo anual diminua, mas ainda positivo e entre os maiores da história, na casa dos US$ 50 bilhões”, explica Brandão.

Destinos e origens

Os cinco principais compradores de produtos brasileiros foram China (US$ 3,366 bilhões), Estados Unidos (US$ 2,247 bilhões), Argentina (US$ 1,205 bilhão), Países Baixos (US$ 871 milhões) e Chile (US$ 540 milhões). Os principais mercados fornecedores, em janeiro, foram China (US$ 2,844 bilhões), Estados Unidos (US$ 2,390 bilhões), Alemanha (US$ 876 milhões), Argentina (US$ 727 milhões) e Coreia do Sul (US$ 540 milhões).



NOTA TÉCNICA: http://www.mdic.gov.br/index.php/comercio-exterior/estatisticas-de-comercio-exterior/balanca-comercial-brasileira-semanal

MDIC. PORTAL G1. 01/02/2018. Balança tem superávit de US$ 2,76 bilhões em janeiro, maior para o mês em 12 anos. As exportações somaram US$ 16,98 bilhões, recorde para meses de janeiro, e, as importações, US$ 14,19 bilhões, informou o Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços.
Por Alexandro Martello, G1, Brasília

A balança comercial brasileira apresentou um superávit de US$ 2,76 bilhões em janeiro deste ano, informou nesta segunda-feira (1º) o Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços (MDIC).

Isso significa que as exportações brasileiras superaram as importações em US$ 2,76 bilhões no mês passado. Foi o melhor resultado para meses de janeiro desde 2006 (US$ 2,83 bilhões), ou seja, em 12 anos.

O superávit de janeiro também foi o segundo maior da série histórica, que tem início em 1989. Em janeiro do ano passado, foi registrado um superávit de US$ 2,72 bilhões.

As exportações somaram US$ 16,98 bilhões em janeiro deste ano, com média diária de US$ 771 milhões. Foi o melhor resultado para meses de janeiro desde o início da série histórica, em 1989. Em relação a janeiro de 2017, houve aumento de 13,8%.

Nesta comparação, avançaram as exportações de produtos básicos (+11,2%), seminanufaturados (+1,1%) e também de manufaturados (+23,6%).

As importações totalizaram US$ 14,19 bilhões no mês passado, com média diária de US$ 645 milhões, uma alta de 16,4% sobre janeiro de 2017.
Avançaram, nesta comparação, as importações de bens intermediários (+5,8%), de combustíveis e lubrificantes (+96,3%), de bens de consumo (+19,2%), e de bens de capital, que são as máquinas e equipamentos para produção (+11,4%).

Estimativas para 2018

A expectativa do mercado financeiro para este ano é de piora do saldo comercial na comparação com 2017, segundo pesquisa realizada pelo Banco Central com mais de 100 instituições financeiras na semana passada.

A previsão dos analistas dos bancos é de um superávit de US$ 54,5 bilhões nas transações comerciais do país com o exterior para 2018. Para o Ministério da Indústria, o saldo positivo ficará em cerca de US$ 50 bilhões neste ano.

O Banco Central, por sua vez, prevê um superávit da balança comercial de US$ 59 bilhões para este ano, com exportações em US$ 225 bilhões e importações no valor de US$ 166 bilhões.

Conta petróleo

O Ministério do Desenvolvimento informou que a chamada conta petróleo, que engloba este produto e seus derivados, registrou um superávit de US$ 579 milhões em janeiro, contra um saldo positivo de US$ 1,06 bilhão em janeiro do ano passado.

A queda no saldo positivo está relacionada com o aumento de 64,1% nas importações de petróleo e derivados, ao mesmo tempo em que as vendas externas destes produtos avançaram menos: 12,1%.

"O aumento de importações decorre da maior atividade econômica, que demanda insumos. Mas o Brasil continua investindo em petróleo, com novas plataformas entrando em operação, e a produção vai continuar crescendo", disse o diretor do departamento de Estatísticas e Apoio à Exportação do MDIC, Herlon Brandão.

Ele estima que a conta petróleo feche o ano de 2018 com superávit, mas em valor abaixo do registrado em 2017 (cerca de US$ 4 bilhões).

MDIC. REUTERS. 1 DE FEVEREIRO DE 2018. Brasil tem superávit comercial de US$2,768 bi em janeiro, 2º melhor para mês da história

BRASÍLIA (Reuters) - O Brasil teve superávit comercial de 2,768 bilhões de dólares em janeiro, segundo melhor resultado para o mês da série iniciada em 1989, ajudado pelo resultado recorde obtido nas exportações, informou o Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços (MDIC) nesta sexta-feira.

O dado veio um pouco pior que expectativa de saldo positivo em 3,026 bilhões de dólares, segundo pesquisa Reuters com analistas. Olhando para os meses de janeiro, ficou atrás apenas do superávit obtido em 2006, de 2,835 bilhões de dólares.

No primeiro mês do ano, as exportações cresceram 13,8 por cento sobre igual mês do ano passado, pela média diária, a 16,968 bilhões de dólares, melhor desempenho para o período desde o início da série histórica.

As importações, por sua vez, cresceram em um ritmo ainda mais acentuado, na esteira da retomada econômica. Na comparação com janeiro do ano passado, o aumento foi de 16,4 por cento, a 14,199 bilhões de dólares.

Após a balança comercial brasileira ter encerrado 2017 com superávit recorde de 67 bilhões de dólares, o MDIC projeta que neste ano o saldo ficará positivo em 50 bilhões de dólares, já que a aceleração da atividade em 2018 deve elevar as importações. [nL1N1OX0TA]

DESTAQUES

Em janeiro, as exportações foram puxadas pelos manufaturados, que cresceram 23,6 por cento sobre um ano antes, a 6,327 bilhões de dólares, com destaque para a elevação de 474,4 por cento nas vendas de aviões, para 198 milhões de dólares.

As exportações nas demais categorias também subiram. A alta foi de 11,2 por cento nos produtos básicos, a 7,544 bilhões de dólares, e de 1,1 por cento em semimanufaturados, a 2,625 bilhões de dólares.

Já as importações em janeiro foram impulsionadas pelos combustíveis e lubrificantes, que registraram aumento de 96,3 por cento sobre igual mês do ano passado. Também subiram as compras de bens de consumo (+19,2 por cento), bens de capital (+11,4 por cento) e bens intermediários (+5,8 por cento).

Por Marcela Ayres e Mateus Maia


MDIC. PORTAL G1. 01/02/2018. Após fim do Inovar Auto, importação de automóveis cresce 38% em janeiro. No mês passado foram importadas 15.409 unidades, contra 11.117 do mesmo mês de 2016. Alta ocorre após fim do regime automotivo, que taxava carros produzidos fora do Mercosul e México.
Por Alexandro Martello, G1, Brasília

O número de automóveis importados cresceu 38,6% em janeiro deste ano, para 15.409 unidades, segundo informações divulgadas nesta segunda-feira (1º) pelo Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Servicos (MDIC). No mesmo mês do ano passado, as importações haviam somado 11.117 unidades.

Os dados oficiais do governo mostram ainda que o valor total das importações avançou para US$ 271,9 milhões em janeiro deste ano, alta de 58% na comparação com os US$ 171,9 milhões registrados no mesmo mês de 2017.

Segundo o diretor do Departamento de Estatísticas e Apoio à Exportação do MDIC, Herlon Brandão, esse crescimento das compras de automóveis do exterior pode estar relacionado com o fim Inovar Auto e com a maior demanda interna, reflexo do reaquecimento da economia.

No programa Inovar Auto, que vigorou até o fim do ano passado, era cobrado um adicional de 30 pontos percentuais de Imposto sobre Produtos Industrializados (IPI) para veículos importados não produzidos em países do Mercosul ou no México - que possuem acordo com o Brasil.

O governo brasileiro negocia um novo regime automotivo, o Rota 2030, que deve ser anunciado até o fim de fevereiro, mas o IPI para estes países não deve subir para o patamar anterior, uma vez que essa política foi condenada pela Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC).

Questionado se esse crescimento de importações de veículos é uma tendência, Herlon Brandão, do MDIC, afirmou que ainda é "cedo para avaliar", mas acrescentou que "espera-se que sim".

"Assim como as importações como um todo vão crescer [com o crescimento da economia], as de automóveis também", declarou ele.

Veja abaixo a variação das importações por país:

• Argentina: com o qual o Brasil já possuía acordo automotivo: alta de 53,7%, para US$ 114,5 milhões
• México: com o qual o Brasil já possuía acordo automotivo: queda de 17,3%, para US$ 49,7 milhões
• Coreia do Sul: que não possui acordo automotivo e tinha IPI maior até dezembro: alta de 445% em janeiro, para US$ 24 milhões
• Japão (que tinha IPI maior até dezembro): alta de 176% em janeiro, para US$ 21 milhões
• Alemanha (que tinha IPI maior até dezembro): alta de 204% em janeiro, para US$ 26,8 milhões
• China (que tinha IPI maior até dezembro): alta de 87% em janeiro, para US$ 3 milhões
• Suécia (que tinha IPI maior até dezembro): alta de 408% em janeiro, para US$ 6,1 milhões

MDIC. REUTERS. 1 DE FEVEREIRO DE 2018. Depois de fim de Inovar Auto, importações de veículos saltam 58% em janeiro
Por Marcela Ayres e Mateus Maia

BRASÍLIA (Reuters) - As importações de automóveis para passageiros saltaram 58 por cento em janeiro sobre igual mês do ano passado, a 272 milhões de dólares, num movimento que pode guardar reflexo com o fim do Inovar Auto, divulgou o Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços (MDIC) nesta quinta-feira.

Concebido no governo da ex-presidente Dilma Rousseff, o Inovar Auto elevou em 30 pontos percentuais o Imposto sobre Produtos Industrializados (IPI) sobre veículos importados, com prazo de vigência até dezembro. Em janeiro, portanto, os veículos importados passaram a não arcar mais com a sobretaxa.

Segundo o diretor de Estatísticas e Apoio às Exportações do MDIC, Herlon Brandão, a expiração do programa pode explicar parte do avanço na compra de automóveis vindos de fora.

“Ele pode estar relacionado com o fim do IPI do Inovar Auto, e também com a maior demanda interna”, disse. Na véspera, o vice-presidente de assuntos governamentais e de estratégia para América do Sul da Ford, Rogelio Golfarb, afirmou que as vendas de veículos novos no Brasil em janeiro até o dia 29 subiram quase 23 por cento sobre o mesmo período de 2017.

Na comparação com janeiro do ano passado, a importação de veículos da Alemanha, por exemplo, subiu de 8,8 milhões para 26,8 milhões de dólares.

Em relação aos automóveis vindos da Coreia do Sul, o aumento foi de 4,4 milhões para 24 milhões de dólares. As compras de veículos do Japão, por sua vez, cresceram de 7,6 milhões para 21 milhões de dólares em janeiro deste ano. As da Suécia passaram de 1,2 milhão para 6,1 milhões de dólares e, da China, de 1,6 milhão para 3 milhões de dólares.

Brandão ressalvou, por outro lado, que em termos de unidades, foram comprados 4.292 veículos a mais em janeiro sobre um ano antes, sendo mais da metade -- 2.415 -- vindos da Argentina, que não é afetada pelo fim do Inovar Auto, pois, assim como o México, é um país com o qual o Brasil já possui acordo automotivo.

Diante do aumento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) e crescimento da renda, “é natural que aumente a demanda por importação de automóveis”, ressaltou Brandão.

Em 2017, a fatia dos importados nas vendas de veículos novos no Brasil caiu a 10,9 por cento, menor nível desde pelo menos os 10 anos anteriores. A expectativa da associação de montadoras, Anfavea, é que a participação cresça para 15 por cento neste ano.

Brandão lembrou que apesar da expansão da importação sobre janeiro de 2017, as compras de veículos importados na realidade caíram em relação à dezembro, quando somaram 291,1 milhões de dólares, e novembro, quando alcançaram 328,7 milhões de dólares. Nestes meses, o Inovar Auto ainda seguia em vigência.

O governo do presidente Michel Temer iniciou discussões sobre um novo regime automotivo, o Rota 2030, de mais longo prazo que o Inovar Auto, mas até agora não conseguiu acordo sobre as novas diretrizes em meio a críticas do Ministério da Fazenda, que tenta controlar o quadro de desequilíbrio fiscal do país.

O Inovar-Auto foi considerado fora das regras pela Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC) por diferenciar veículos produzidos no Brasil e importados.

MDIC. REUTERS. 1 DE FEVEREIRO DE 2018. Brasil inicia ano com exportação maior de soja, milho e café; açúcar cai

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - O Brasil iniciou o ano com exportações maiores de soja, milho e café, enquanto as de açúcar diminuíram, mostraram dados da Secretaria de Comércio Exterior (Secex), do Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços, nesta quinta-feira.

Os embarques do cereal saltaram 108,3 por cento em janeiro, para 3,02 milhões de toneladas, enquanto os da soja cresceram 71,5 por cento, para 1,56 milhão de toneladas. As comparações são com janeiro de 2017.

As vendas externas de ambas as commodities se seguem a exportações fortes desde o fim do ano passado.

Os embarques de soja permanecem firmes até agora, meses após a colheita do ciclo 2016/17, em razão da produção recorde vista em tal temporada, de 114 milhões de toneladas, segundo a Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab).


Isso garantiu oferta suficiente para que os produtores do país rivalizassem, inclusive, com os norte-americanos no segundo semestre, em uma janela de negócios geralmente dominada pelos Estados Unidos.

A colheita da nova safra (2017/18) está apenas começando, mas as empresas contaram com estoques da temporada anterior para impulsionar os embarques em janeiro.

Já as vendas de milho demoraram a engrenar por causa da competição com a soja nos portos do Brasil e também em razão dos preços considerados pouco atrativos por produtores. Os embarques no ano passado, apesar da safra recorde, ficaram abaixo das projeções iniciais.

CAFÉ E AÇÚCAR

Outro produto cujos embarques demoraram a ganhar ritmo foi o café, também em virtude de preços baixos, tanto que o desempenho de 2017 ficou aquém do esperado pelo Conselho dos Exportadores de Café do Brasil (Cecafé).

Em janeiro, as exportações de café verde somaram 2,61 milhões de sacas, ante 2,46 milhões um ano atrás. A quantidade também superou os 2,58 milhões de sacas de dezembro.

Já as vendas de açúcar bruto diminuíram 28,5 por cento no mês passado, para 1,27 milhão de toneladas.

Maior produtor e exportador de açúcar do mundo, o Brasil está atualmente em entressafra de cana, o que por si só já reduz a oferta para venda ao exterior.

Neste ano, porém, o centro-sul, principal região produtora do país, vem de uma segunda metade de safra marcada por maior fabricação de etanol, dada a competitividade do biocombustível ante a gasolina.

Por José Roberto Gomes

MDIC. REUTERS. 1 DE FEVEREIRO DE 2018. Petróleo lidera pauta de exportações de commodities do Brasil em janeiro

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - As exportações de petróleo pelo Brasil em janeiro lideraram a pauta de vendas de produtos básicos do país, avançando quase 20 por cento na comparação com o mesmo mês do ano anterior, para cerca de 2,1 bilhões de dólares, de acordo com dados do governo divulgados nesta quinta-feira.

O avanço na receita ocorre em meio a preços mais elevados do produto, o que compensou uma ligeira redução no volume dos embarques na mesma comparação. As cotações do petróleo embarcado pelo Brasil subiram 20,4 por cento, para 381,6 dólares por tonelada.

O total exportado somou 5,497 milhões de toneladas em janeiro, ante 5,566 milhões de toneladas no mesmo mês do ano passado.

Na comparação com dezembro, os embarques avançaram 78,6 por cento em valores e cerca de 81,5 por cento em volumes.

As exportações estão crescentes no país em momento em que o consumo de combustíveis está fraco, enquanto o Brasil amplia sua produção, especialmente a partir das reservas do pré-sal.

A produção média de petróleo do Brasil em 2017 cresceu 4 por cento ante o ano anterior, para 2,622 milhões de barris por dia (bpd), de acordo com dados da Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP).

Já a exportação de petróleo do Brasil no ano passado avançou 24,8 por cento, para 363,7 milhões de barris, segundo a ANP.

MINÉRIO

O minério de ferro apareceu em segundo lugar entre as commodities que geraram maior receita de exportação para o Brasil em janeiro, com 1,53 bilhão de dólares.

Os embarques de celulose ficaram na terceira colocação, com 713,3 milhões de dólares, enquanto as exportações de soja em grão somaram 594,3 milhões de dólares no mesmo mês.

No início do ano, as exportações de soja --que tem sido o principal produto de exportação do Brasil-- são menores, uma vez que a colheita ainda não ganhou força nesta época.

Ainda assim, os embarques de soja superaram os de janeiro do ano passado, com operadores vendendo o produto da safra recorde da temporada anterior.

Por Roberto Samora

MDIC. ABPA. REUTERS. 2 DE FEVEREIRO DE 2018. Exportação de carne de frango do Brasil cai 8,8% em janeiro, diz ABPA

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - As exportações brasileiras de carne de frango somaram 330,9 mil toneladas em janeiro, queda de 8,8 por cento ante igual mês do ano passado, informou nesta sexta-feira a Associação Brasileira de Proteína Animal (ABPA).

”As exportações de janeiro deste ano apresentaram excelente desempenho quando comparamos com o histórico dos embarques registrados no período, exceto diante dos números de janeiro de 2017, quando houve uma alta histórica, disse o presidente-executivo da ABPA, Francisco Turra, em nota.

Segundo ele, as vendas para os Emirados Árabes Unidos, Japão e África do Sul foram os destaques positivos neste início de ano, e ajudaram o país a exportar mais do que o total embarcado em dezembro (321,1 mil toneladas).

Conforme a ABPA, a receita com as exportações em janeiro chegou a 521,9 milhões de dólares, queda 13,3 por cento frente janeiro do ano passado e praticamente estável ante dezembro.

Os números consideram todos os produtos, entre in natura e processados.

RÚSSIA PESA

Em paralelo, as exportações de carne suína in natura totalizaram 45,2 mil toneladas em janeiro deste ano, queda de 17 por cento na comparação anual. A receita foi de 97,5 milhões de dólares, recuo de 21,8 por cento.

“As fortes vendas para a China e Hong Kong diminuíram os impactos causados pelo embargo russo à carne suína brasileira. O mercado chinês, por exemplo, incrementou suas compras em mais de 120 por cento em relação a janeiro de 2017”, disse Turra.

Por José Roberto Gomes

FENABRAVE. REUTERS. 1 DE FEVEREIRO DE 2018. Vendas de veículos novos no Brasil sobem 23% em janeiro sobre um ano antes, diz Fenabrave

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - As vendas de veículos novos no Brasil cresceram 23 por cento em janeiro sobre o mesmo período de 2017, para 181,26 mil carros, comerciais leves, caminhões e ônibus, informou a associação de concessionários, Fenabrave, nesta quinta-feira.

Na comparação com dezembro, mês em que as vendas costumam ser mais fortes que janeiro, os licenciamentos tiveram queda de 14,75 por cento.

Na véspera, o vice-presidente de assuntos governamentais e de estratégia para América do Sul da Ford, Rogelio Golfarb, afirmou que no acumulado dos 29 primeiros dias de janeiro, as vendas de veículos novos no Brasil tinham subido quase 23 por cento sobre o mesmo período de 2017.

Segundo o presidente da Fenabrave, Alarico Assumpção Júnior, o cenário econômico deste início de ano é diferente do início de 2017.

“As expectativas renovadas em função da melhora dos índices econômicos, refletem, diretamente, na confiança do consumidor e favorecem o mercado de veículos”, afirmou o executico em comunicado à imprensa.

O segmento de caminhões, um dos indicadores de saúde da economia, teve alta de 56,3 por cento nos emplacamentos de janeiro sobre o mesmo mês de 2017, enquanto na comparação com dezembro houve queda de 25,6 por cento. As vendas de ônibus subiram 57,7 por cento na comparação anual e caíram 30,4 por cento ante o mês anterior.

Por Alberto Alerigi Jr.

_______________

ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA / BRAZIL ECONOMICS

MPOG. 02/02/2018. Orçamento de 2018 terá bloqueio de R$ 16,2 bilhões. Medida foi anunciada em coletiva de imprensa nesta sexta-feira (02)

O Poder Executivo fará um bloqueio no Orçamento de 2018 no valor de R$ 16,2 bilhões. A informação foi dada pelo ministro do Planejamento, Desenvolvimento e Gestão, Dyogo Oliveira, em coletiva à imprensa nesta sexta-feira (2). O bloqueio será feito considerando os seguintes fatores:

• As receitas primárias decorrentes do processo de desestatização da Eletrobrás/S.A. serão acomodadas em reserva, pois aguardam ainda a apreciação e aprovação do Projeto de Lei nº 9.463/2018, em tramitação no Congresso Nacional.
• Atualização dos parâmetros econômicos e base de projeção (realização final de receitas e despesas de 2017).
• Em função da majoração de determinadas despesas primárias obrigatórias, o orçamento deverá sofrer realocações, mediante remanejamento entre órgãos.

O montante bloqueado de R$ 16,2 bilhões constituirá reserva no decreto de programação, sendo que R$ 8 bilhões serão realocados para outras finalidades:

A reavaliação de receitas e despesas primárias, por sua vez, foi realizada com base na arrecadação de 2017 e parâmetros macroeconômicos atualizados, e não sinaliza necessidade de contingenciamento para cumprimento da meta fiscal, indicando uma sobra em relação à meta de resultado primário de R$ 4,2 bilhões.

A reestimativa da receita líquida prevista para o corrente ano apresentou elevação de R$ 1,4 bilhão, devido aos fatores abaixo discriminados:

A estimativa da despesa primária apresentou redução de R$ 1,8 bilhão em relação à avaliação anterior, cujas principais alterações foram:

O ministro destacou, em relação aos itens da despesa, a queda “significativa” no pagamento do desemprego no ano passado. Oliveira explicou que isso ocorreu em razão de um mercado de trabalho mais aquecido, com a taxa de desemprego caindo e uma rotatividade menor.

As estimativas dos principais parâmetros econômicos de 2018 foram atualizadas. As previsões para o PIB real e nominal não sofreram alterações significativas, enquanto observou-se o declínio da taxa de inflação do IPCA, agora projetado em 3,9%.



O ministro afirmou ainda que as projeções anunciadas são sólidas. “São projeções bem justificadas e dão margem para a gestão da política fiscal ao longo do ano”, concluiu.

APRESENTAÇÃO: http://www.planejamento.gov.br/apresentacoes/2018

FGV. IBRE. 02-Fev-2018. Índices Gerais de Preços. IPC-S Capitais. Inflação pelo IPC-S avança em cinco das sete capitais pesquisadas

O IPC-S de 31 de janeiro de 2018 registrou variação de 0,69%, 0,10 ponto percentual (p.p.) acima da taxa divulgada na última apuração. Cinco das sete capitais pesquisadas registraram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação.

A tabela a seguir, apresenta as variações percentuais dos municípios das sete capitais componentes do índice, nesta e na apuração anterior.



DOCUMENTO: http://portalibre.fgv.br/main.jsp?lumPageId=402880972283E1AA0122841CE9191DD3&contentId=8A7C82C5610B87CF016155E3274B61F6

USP. FIPE. REUTERS. 2 DE FEVEREIRO DE 2018. IPC-Fipe desacelera alta a 0,46% em janeiro com queda de preços em Habitação e Vestuário

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) de São Paulo desacelerou a alta a 0,46 por cento em janeiro, após ter encerrado dezembro com avanço de 0,55 por cento, com queda nos preços de Habitação e Vestuário.

O dado divulgado nesta sexta-feira pela Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (Fipe) mostrou que os preços do grupo Habitação recuaram 0,17 por cento, após uma alta de 0,73 por cento em dezembro.

Também registraram queda no primeiro mês do ano os preços de Vestuário, de 0,18 por cento, após avanço de 0,11 por cento no período anterior.

Na outra ponta, o maior impacto de alta foi exercido por Educação, com avanço de 3,02 por cento num efeito sazonal de início de ano por conta do retorno às aulas, contra variação positiva de 0,08 por cento antes.

Já o grupo Alimentação acelerou a alta a 1,15 por cento em janeiro, de 0,31 por cento no mês anterior.

O IPC-Fipe mede as variações quadrissemanais dos preços às famílias paulistanas com renda mensal entre 1 e 10 salários mínimos.

Por Camila Moreira

FECOMÉRCIO. 02/02/2018. ECONOMIA. Confiança do empresário do comércio volta subir em janeiro, aponta FecomercioSP. Segundo a Federação, a alta de 1,4% na confiança do comerciante paulistano reflete o bom desempenho das vendas do Natal e indica otimismo em 2018

A confiança do empresário paulistano iniciou o ano em ritmo de retomada, apontando a recuperação do nível de atividade econômica em curso, baseada nas melhoras do emprego e da renda. Esses fatores impulsionaram as vendas e abriram espaços para novos investimentos no comércio. É o que mostra o Índice de Confiança do Empresário do Comércio (ICEC), que subiu 1,4% ao passar de 109,1 pontos em dezembro para 110,7 pontos em janeiro. Na comparação com o mesmo mês de 2017, o ICEC teve alta de 18,2%, quando atingiu 93,7 pontos.

Apurado mensalmente pela Federação do Comércio de Bens, Serviços e Turismo do Estado de São Paulo (FecomercioSP), o ICEC varia de zero (pessimismo total) a 200 pontos (otimismo total).

Na segmentação por porte, o ICEC das empresas com até 50 funcionários atingiu 110,2 pontos em janeiro, alta de 1,3% em relação ao mês anterior. A confiança das companhias com mais de 50 empregados registrou alta de 5,9%, passando de 124,8 pontos em dezembro para 132,2 pontos em janeiro, a maior pontuação desde maio de 2014. No comparativo anual, tanto as pequenas como as grandes empresas registraram crescimento na confiança, de 18,3% e 13,3%, respectivamente.

Indicadores

Entre os três quesitos que integram o indicador, apenas o que mede as expectativas dos empresários em relação ao futuro registrou queda na passagem de dezembro para janeiro, de 0,4%, com o Índice de Expectativas do Empresário do Comércio (IEEC) recuou 0,4%, passando de 151,6 pontos em dezembro para 151 pontos em janeiro. Entretanto, na comparação com janeiro de 2017, houve alta de 6,8%.

O Índice das Condições Econômicas Atuais (ICAEC) subiu pelo terceiro mês consecutivo, atingindo 86,6 pontos, alta de 5,6% na comparação mensal, a maior pontuação desde fevereiro de 2014. No comparativo anual, o índice avançou 53,2%, quando em janeiro de 2017 alcançava 56,6 pontos.

O Índice de Investimento do Empresário do Comércio (IIEC), responsável por medir a propensão a investir avançou 0,6% ao passar de 93,8 pontos em dezembro para 94,4 pontos em janeiro. Em relação a janeiro de 2017, o indicador apresentou elevação de 13,6%.

Para a assessoria econômica da FecomercioSP, a alta na confiança dos empresários registrada em janeiro é reflexo do bom desempenho nas vendas de Natal em 2017. Para 2018, as perspectivas permanecem otimistas, e a previsão é de que o comércio varejista apresente um crescimento ainda mais robusto ao longo do ano, baseado nas melhores condições de emprego e renda. A tendência é de que esse ritmo contagie positivamente outros segmentos, como já vem ocorrendo na indústria.

De maneira geral, o indicador confirmou as previsões da FecomercioSP e segue o mesmo ritmo das demais pesquisas da Entidade, as quais permitiram antever a retomada mais vigorosa da economia e das vendas - inclusive de emprego e renda - com um ano de antecedência em relação a outras entidades e institutos. O grau de acerto das projeções da Entidade foi algo impressionante e tudo indica que se manterá assim neste ano.

BNDES. PORTAL BRASIL. 01/02/2018. ECONOMIA E EMPREGO. Recursos. Projetos no Nordeste receberam R$ 14,2 bilhões do BNDES em 2017. Apoio do banco de desenvolvimento a ações na região gerou mais de 235 mil postos de trabalho

Os desembolsos do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) para a região Nordeste cresceram 24% no ano passado, na comparação com 2016, e atingiram R$ 14,2 bilhões. A região respondeu por 20% do total nacional liberado pelo banco, maior percentual desde o início da série histórica, em 1995.

No ano passado, o segmento que mais recebeu recursos do BNDES no Nordeste foi a geração de energia elétrica a partir da fonte eólica: R$ 6,6 bilhões, somando mais de R$ 23,8 bilhões desembolsados desde 2012. Somente em 2017, estima-se que a implantação de projetos tenha sido responsável pela geração e manutenção de mais de 235 mil postos de trabalho, o que corresponde a 20% do total de empregos associados a projetos apoiados pelo banco no período.

BNDES. 1 de fevereiro de 2018. Institucional. Desembolsos do BNDES para o Nordeste crescem 24% em 2017 e atingem R$ 14,2 bilhões. Participação da região nas liberações do Banco chegou a 20%. É o maior percentual desde o início da série histórica, em 1995. Principais responsáveis pelo desempenho foram projetos de geração de energia eólica, que receberam R$ 6,6 bilhões no ano passado

Os desembolsos do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) para a região Nordeste cresceram 24% no ano passado, na comparação com 2016, e atingiram R$ 14,2 bilhões. De acordo com o diretor de Planejamento e Crédito do BNDES, Carlos Alexandre Da Costa, a região respondeu por 20% do total nacional liberado pelo Banco, maior percentual desde o início da série histórica, em 1995. O resultado também supera a participação relativa da região no PIB, que é de 14,2%, segundo dados do IBGE. De 2012 a 2017, os desembolsos para o Nordeste acumulam R$ 119,2 bilhões.

O segmento que mais recebeu recursos do BNDES no Nordeste em 2017 foi a geração de energia elétrica a partir da fonte eólica: R$ 6,6 bilhões no ano passado, somando mais de R$ 23,8 bilhões desembolsados desde 2012. A região concentra 83,4% da matriz eólica nacional, com 10.543,2 megawatts de capacidade instalada, o suficiente para abastecer mais de 23 milhões de domicílios. Os parques em construção e/ou contratados somam mais 4.642,9 MW.

Os Estados nordestinos que apresentaram maior crescimento de desembolso em relação ao ano anterior foram Piauí (154,7%), Maranhão (81,9%) e Paraíba (73,6%), impulsionados por operações de implantação de parques eólicos — e, no caso maranhense, também em função de operações com a Vale S.A. e com o governo do Estado.

Os Estados que mais receberam a maior parte dos recursos liberados para a região, entre 2012 e 2017, foram Bahia (29,4% do total do Nordeste), Pernambuco (17,2%), Maranhão (16,1%) e Ceará (14,1%). Dentre os projetos apoiados no período, destacam-se a ampliação do metrô de Salvador, com expansão da linha 1 e construção da linha 2, infraestrutura de saneamento (BA), investimentos da indústria naval (PE) e da indústria automotiva (BA e PE) e implantação de parques eólicos (BA e CE).

Empregos e desenvolvimento regional – Somente em 2017, estima-se que a implantação de projetos com desembolso do BNDES para o Nordeste tenha sido responsável pela geração e manutenção de mais de 235 mil postos de trabalho, o que corresponde a 20% do total de empregos associados a projetos apoiados pelo BNDES no período.

“A atuação do BNDES no desenvolvimento do Nordeste foi responsável por 3% das vagas de trabalho com carteira assinada na região. Além do foco em infraestrutura, nossa atuação tem grandes impactos sobre o fortalecimento das cadeias produtivas locais”, afirma Carlos Alexandre Da Costa.

Atuação socioambiental - O BNDES aprovou, no fim do ano passado, a destinação de R$ 100 milhões do Fundo Social para a instalação de 6.800 cisternas de segunda água (modelo de 52 mil litros) no semiárido brasileiro. Desde 2013, o Banco já destinou R$ 271 milhões, em recursos não reembolsáveis do seu Fundo Social, para a construção de 25 mil cisternas de segunda água, que captam e armazenam água da chuva para uso em irrigação e criação de animais. Seus destinatários são famílias rurais de baixa renda atingidas pela seca ou pela falta regular de água no semiárido brasileiro — uma região que abrange 8 Estados do Nordeste (AL, BA, CE, PB, PE, PI, RN e SE) e MG, onde vivem cerca de 24 milhões de brasileiros.

Desempenho nacional e MPMEs – Considerando o desempenho para todo o País, o BNDES no ano passado desembolsou R$ 70,8 bilhões. O destaque foram os desembolsos para micro, pequenas e médias empresas, que cresceram 9% e atingiram R$ 29,7 bilhões (42% do total liberado pelo Banco, recorde histórico de participação).

Na região Nordeste, os Estados da Paraíba e do Ceará acompanharam a tendência nacional também neste aspecto. O primeiro apresentou crescimento de 3,4% em desembolsos para as empresas de menor porte, que receberam R$ 98,7 milhões. Já as MPMEs do Ceará receberam R$ 316,7 milhões do BNDES no ano passado, crescimento de 2,5% em relação a 2016.

APRESENTAÇÃO: https://www.bndes.gov.br/wps/wcm/connect/site/b3823607-8f28-48c0-b265-06e450ccc841/Desempenho_NE_2017.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=m5jata6

PETROBRAS. 02.Fev.2018. ENERGIA. Consórcio de Libra inicia processo de contratação de novo FPSO para Campo de Mero

A Petrobras, operadora do Consórcio de Libra, deu início ao processo competitivo para a contratação do afretamento do segundo sistema de produção definitivo do Campo de Mero. O Campo de Mero está localizado na área noroeste do bloco de Libra, a cerca de 180 km da costa do Rio de Janeiro, no pré-sal da Bacia de Santos.

A plataforma será um FPSO (unidade que produz, armazena e transfere óleo e gás) com capacidade para produzir 180 mil barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e processar 12 milhões de m3/dia de gás e será instalado no projeto Mero 2, em lâmina d’água de cerca de 2.000 metros.

A unidade, com características similares ao projeto Mero 1 - primeiro sistema de produção definitivo do campo – terá algumas otimizações implementadas. O início da produção da plataforma está previsto para 2022.
A produção no bloco de Libra teve início em novembro de 2017, com a entrada em operação do FPSO Pioneiro de Libra, dedicado a testes de longa duração e sistemas de produção antecipada.

O consórcio de Libra é liderado pela Petrobras – com participação de 40% - em parceria com a Shell (20%); Total (20%); CNPC (10%) e CNOOC Limited (10%), tendo a Pré-Sal Petróleo S.A. (PPSA) como gestora do Contrato de Partilha da Produção.

EMBRAER. BOVESPA. PORTAL G1. 02/02/2018. AVIAÇÃO. Bovespa opera em queda de mais de 1%; Embraer tem forte alta. Na véspera, Ibovespa subiu 0,69%, a 85.495 pontos. Embraer lidera altas com expectativa maior por acordo com a Boeing.

O principal índice de ações da B3 opera em queda de mais de 1% nesta sexta-feira (2), na esteira de perdas em praças acionárias no exterior, com as ações preferenciais dos bancos Itaú Unibanco e Bradesco entre as maiores pressões negativas do Ibovespa. Na outra ponta, as ações da Embraer eram destaque de alta, em meio a expactativa maior por acordo nas negociações entre a fabricante de aviões brasileira e a norte-americana Boeing.

Às 12h01, o Ibovespa caía 1,46%, a 84.267 pontos.

A Embraer liderava os ganhos do Ibovespa, com alta de mais de 4%, após disparar 7% mais cedo. Em seu blog, a jornalista Miriam Leitão disse que a empresa brasileira e a Boeing vão criar uma terceira empresa, que ficará encarregada da operação comercial da fabricante de aviões. Pela proposta, segundo o blog, a parte militar do negócio continuará sob o comando exclusivo do governo brasileiro.

Ibovespa em 2018

Pontuação de fechamento

17/1
● : 81.189

Fonte: B3

De acordo com profissionais da área de renda variável, investidores aproveitavam o quadro externo ruim para embolsar lucros recentes com a forte alta das ações brasileiras neste começo de 2018.

Até a véspera, o Ibovespa acumulava elevação de 11,9% no ano. Na quinta-feira, o índice fechou em alta de 0,69%, a 85.495 pontos.

No exterior, o humor dos agentes financeiros era minado por resultados corporativos que desagradaram, incluindo os números do banco alemão Deutsche Bank, e alta dos rendimentos dos títulos do Tesouro norte-americano.

EMBRAER. BOVESPA. REUTERS. 2 DE FEVEREIRO DE 2018. AVIAÇÃO. Bovespa recua mais de 1% com exterior negativo; Embraer sobe mais de 7%
Por Paula Arend Laier

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - A bolsa brasileira iniciou esta sexta-feira no terreno negativo, na esteira de perdas em praças acionárias no exterior, com as ações preferenciais dos bancos Itaú Unibanco e Bradesco entre as maiores pressões negativas do Ibovespa.

As ações da Embraer eram destaque de alta, em meio a notícia sobre acordo relacionado às negociações entre a fabricante de aviões brasileira e a norte-americana Boeing.

Às 11:15, o principal índice de ações da B3 caía 1,39 por cento, a 84.309 pontos, com alta em apenas cinco das 64 ações da carteira.

O volume financeiro no pregão somava 1,46 bilhão de reais.

De acordo com profissionais da área de renda variável, investidores aproveitavam o quadro externo ruim para embolsar lucros recentes com a forte alta das ações brasileiras neste começo de 2018.

Até a véspera, o Ibovespa acumulava elevação de 11,9 por cento no ano.

No exterior, o humor dos agentes financeiros era minado por resultados corporativos que desagradaram, incluindo os números do banco alemão Deutsche Bank, e alta dos rendimentos dos títulos do Tesouro norte-americano.

Investidores também estão na expectativa de dados do mercado de trabalho norte-americano.

DESTAQUES

• BRADESCO PN perdia 1,99 por cento, em dia negativo no setor bancário do Ibovespa, com ITAÚ UNIBANCO em queda de 1,94 por cento. .
• VALE caía 1,15 por cento, também pesando no índice, apesar da alta nos preços do minério de ferro à vista na China.
• EMBRAER liderava os ganhos do Ibovespa, com alta de mais de 7 por cento. Em seu blog, a jornalista Miriam Leitão disse que a empresa brasileira e a Boeing vão criar uma terceira empresa, que ficará encarregada da operação comercial da fabricante de aviões.
• CIELO subia 0,74 por cento, revertendo perdas da abertura, tendo no radar resultado do quarto trimestre, com lucro líquido ajustado de 1,1 bilhão de reais e estimativas para 2018.
• PETROBRAS PN e PETROBRAS ON caíam 1,56 e 1,13 por cento, respectivamente, após altas fortes na véspera, em sessão sem viés claro para os preços do petróleo no mercado internacional.
• GRUPO PÃO DE AÇÚCAR cedia 2,96 por cento, entre as maiores quedas, engatando a quinta sessão consecutiva no vermelho.

Por Paula Arend Laier

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LGCJ.: