CANADA ECONOMICS
WEF
Government of Canada. PM. Itinerary for January 23 to 25, 2018 Ottawa, Ontario - January 22, 2018
Itinerary for the Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, for Tuesday, January 23, 2018:
Note: All times local
Davos, Switzerland
10:15 a.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the President and Chief Executive Officer of Thomson Reuters Corporation, James Smith.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
10:50 a.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the President and Chief Executive Officer of the ABB Group, Dr. Ulrich Spiesshofer.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
11:25 a.m. The Prime Minister will meet the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of UPS, David Abney.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
1:30 p.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the Chairman of UBS, Axel Weber.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
5:30 p.m. The Prime Minister will deliver a keynote address at the World Economic Forum annual meeting. A discussion will follow.
Congress Hall, Lower Level
Davos Congress Centre
Note for media:
Open coverage
6:15 p.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the Executive Director of Oxfam International, Winnie Byanyima.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
7:30 p.m. The Prime Minister will attend a reception co-hosted by Tina Brown of Women in the World and the Chief Executive Officer of Credit Suisse, Tidjane Thiam.
Credit Suisse Pavilion
Closed to media
8:15 p.m. The Prime Minister will attend a dinner given by the Founder and Executive Chairman of Alibaba, Jack Ma.
Steigenberger Grandhotel Belvédère
Closed to media
9:30 p.m. The Prime Minister will attend a dinner given by the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of BlackRock, Larry Fink.
InterContinental Davos
Closed to media
Itinerary for the Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, for Wednesday, January 24, 2018:
Note: All times local
Davos, Switzerland
10:30 a.m. The Prime Minister will participate in a Canada-U.S.A. Economic Roundtable.
Room Pisha 2, 1st Floor
Steigenberger Grandhotel Bélvèdere
Closed to media
12:05 p.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DP World, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
1:20 p.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the President and Chief Executive Officer of Ericsson, Börje Ekholm.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
2:30 p.m. The Prime Minister will participate in an Oceans Roundtable Discussion.
Monta 2 Room, Ground Floor
Grischa Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
4 p.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the President of Argentina, Mauricio Macri.
Bilateral Room, Ground Floor
Argentina House
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
4:45 p.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Salesforce, Marc Benioff.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
5:15 p.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell, Ben van Beurden.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
6:15 p.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the Chief Executive Officer of Microsoft Corporation, Satya Nadella.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
Itinerary for the Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, for Thursday, January 25, 2018:
Note: All times local
Davos, Switzerland
9:30 a.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the Chairman of Investor AB, Jacob Wallenberg.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
10 a.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the President and Chief Executive Officer of The Coca-Cola Company, James Quincey.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
11:50 a.m. The Prime Minister will participate in a panel discussion with the Co-Founder of the Malala Fund, Malala Yousafzai.
Congress Hall, Lower Level
Davos Congress Centre
Note for media:
Open coverage
2 p.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the President and Chief Executive Officer of IBM, Ginni Rometty.
Ski Room, Lower Ground Floor
Ameron Swiss Mountain Hotel
Note for media:
Pooled photo opportunity
3:15 p.m. The Prime Minister will hold a media availability.
Press Conference Room, Ground Floor
WEF Media Centre
Note for media:
Open coverage
4:15 p.m. The Prime Minister will meet with the Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, Klaus Schwab.
Executive Chairman Office, Ground Floor
Davos Congress Centre
Note for media:
Official photographer only
6:30 p.m. The Prime Minister will attend a Canada Reception.
Room Damoro, Ground Floor
Morosani Schweizerhof
Note for media:
Official photographer only
NAFTA
The Globe and Mail. 23 Jan 2018. Mulroney to tout benefits of NAFTA before U.S. Senate committee
ROBERT FIFE, DAVOS, SWITZERLAND
ADRIAN MORROW, MONTREAL
I think the Trump administration and the President himself need help from outside parties to envision what a win looks like.
CHRISTOPHER WILSON, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE MEXICO INSTITUTE AT THE WOODROW WILSON CENTER
Former prime minister Brian Mulroney will testify before the influential U.S. Senate foreign relations committee next Tuesday about the benefits of the troubled North American free-trade agreement, sources say.
Mr. Mulroney negotiated NAFTA and is expected to give a powerful defence of the 24-year-old treaty that U.S. President Donald Trump continues to threaten to abrogate.
As the sixth round of NAFTA talks gets under way Tuesday in Montreal, Canada is hoping to hammer out a compromise with the United States and Mexico on a key provision that allows corporations to sue governments in front of special tribunals, The Globe and Mail has learned.
Ottawa’s willingness to play ball with Washington on that aspect is part of a strategic shift for Canada.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is at the Swiss ski resort of Davos this week for the annual gathering of the World Economic Forum where he will be making the case for NAFTA with U.S. chief executives.
Where the Trudeau government previously took a hard line against every protectionist demand the Trump administration made – leading to deadlock over Washington’s key proposals at the bargaining table – Canada is now prepared to make concessions as pressure mounts to show progress in the negotiations. Along with tightening the rules around auto manufacturing to ensure more North American content is used in vehicles built in the three NAFTA countries, Canada is also targeting Chapter 11 to break the negotiating logjam, officials with knowledge of Ottawa’s game plan said.
Under Chapter 11, investors who accuse governments of making unfair policy decisions that hurt their business interests can have the dispute adjudicated by a trade tribunal.
There’s a renewed sense of engagement on the issue, one official said. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential negotiating strategy.
With mixed signals from the White House on whether it will enforce its March deadline for talks to conclude – and Mr. Trump’s State of the Union speech at the end of January presenting a potential forum to announce a withdrawal from NAFTA – the heat is on negotiators to show a path to a deal.
Canadian and Mexican offers to compromise will also test whether the United States wants to seriously negotiate, or whether its demands are poison pills meant to sink the talks.
The Trump administration wants the right for countries to opt out of the Chapter 11 process, arguing it infringes on national sovereignty. Ottawa, meanwhile, has proposed that the tribunals be made more efficient along the lines of the dispute-settlement mechanisms in Canada’s free-trade deal with the European Union. That process includes a dedicated roster of judges and an appeals process.
Now, Canada is hoping to revisit the matter to see whether it can find some middle ground with the United States, said sources briefed on Canada’s game plan for the talks.
Mexico favours Chapter 11 because it offers reassurance to U.S. corporations that they can safely make investments south of the border. Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo has previously said he is open to either rewriting Chapter 11 to make it look more like the EU process or making it optional.
But Mr. Guajardo has warned that, in the event of an optional system, Mexico would want the right to craft the rules for its Chapter 11 process.
Mexico fears that, if the Trump administration were allowed to write the rules, it would weaken them to discourage American corporations from investing in Mexico.
“We believe that if we [Mexico] are going to do an ‘opt in’ … we should do it as we please, that is, be able to develop a forceful agreement as Mexicans want,” the Mexican newspaper Reforma quoted Mr. Guajardo as saying last fall.
One source said talks over NAFTA’s other dispute-settlement mechanisms – Chapters 19 and 20, which deal with trade spats between governments – remain at an impasse, with the United States wanting to abolish Chapter 19 and gut Chapter 20, and Canada fighting to defend both.
Chapter 11 is a natural area to compromise on because weakening its provisions would not necessarily be a bad deal for Canada, some observers said. Ottawa favours an investor-state dispute mechanism because it helps protect Canadian companies that make foreign investments, but Canada has been the most frequent target of Chapter 11 cases.
A tally by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives found that Canada has paid out nearly $315-million in damages and legal fees after facing 41 Chapter 11 cases since 1994; by comparison, Mexico has been sued 23 times under the system and the United States has been sued 21 times.
“This is an issue where Canada can say ‘Okay, we’ll give it up,’ when it wasn’t really a big deal,” said Dunniela Kaufman, a Washington-based trade lawyer who specializes in U.S.-Canada business.
Unlike Chapter 20, which effectively contains the mechanisms for enforcing NAFTA, she contended Chapter 11 isn’t essential to having a free-trade deal.
Christopher Wilson, deputy director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center think tank in Washington, said Canada and Mexico have an opportunity to cut a deal by playing ball with the United States.
“I think the Trump administration and the President himself need help from outside parties to envision what a win looks like, that is both economically beneficial for region and politically beneficial for the Trump administration,” he said.
Mr. Mulroney’s mission is to make the case that NAFTA can be improved and its cancellation would harm the fast-growing U.S. economy. It will be the first time a former Canadian prime minister has testified before a congressional committee.
The former Progressive Conservative prime minister, who has served as a key adviser to Mr. Trudeau, will talk up the millions of jobs that have been created on both sides of the Canadian and U.S. border since NAFTA went into effect in 1993.
Republican Senator Bob Corker, who chairs the committee, invited Mr. Mulroney, who accepted after getting the go-ahead from Mr. Trudeau and Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland.
One high-level source says Mr. Mulroney will have a stage to “get the story out” about the benefits – including a tripling of trade – and counter the negative story from Mr. Trump and his administration’s trade team.
Mr. Trump insists the United States has a trade deficit with Canada when in fact the United States has about a $17billion surplus.
The Senate foreign relations committee would have an integral role in keeping NAFTA alive should the President give six months notice to kill the treaty. However, legislation to undo NAFTA requires congressional approval.
The Mulroney testimony comes as Canadian ministers have intensified a campaign to win support for NAFTA with travels to key states. Mr. Trudeau will go on pro-NAFTA road trip Feb. 7-11 to Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Mr. Mulroney is highly regarded by Republican politicians for his friendship with former presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He spoke at Mr. Reagan’s funeral.
Mr. Mulroney was unable to be reached for comment.
The Globe and Mail. 23 Jan 2018. EDITORIAL. When at the NAFTA table, skip the Jell-O
Chrystia Freeland’s Aunt Natalka used to be a diplomatic asset. Last summer, the Foreign Affairs Minister told The Globe and Mail that she had built such a close relationship with U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross that he had become acquainted with her aunt via his frequent phone calls to the Freeland residence.
It was evidence of the Trudeau government’s charm offensive south of the border, where cabinet ministers and the PM himself seemed to be spending every free minute pressing the Canadian case for continental free trade with their counterparts in the Trump administration, as well as with state governors and other non-federal officials.
At the time, Mr. Ross was one of Mr. Trump’s key point people on trade and seemed to have major clout in the White House. Ms. Freeland’s courtship looked like a coup.
Not any more. The U.S. news site Axios reported last week that Mr. Ross has lost much of his influence ever since Mr. Trump suddenly turned against him and began trashing him to colleagues in humiliating terms.
So much for Canada’s courtship of Mr. Ross.
This is what happens to anyone trying to sway Mr. Trump, or to forge a deal with him. It was the fate of Democratic Party leaders who repeatedly thought they were close to reaching an agreement with the President to reform immigration and prevent a government shutdown last week, only to have him back out. “Negotiating with President Trump is like negotiating with Jell-O,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Saturday. “It’s next to impossible.”
You don’t have to tell the Trudeau government. Heck, you don’t have to tell anyone at this point. That Mr. Trump is erratic has become a truism. But as NAFTA talks resume in Montreal this week, it’s worth asking why he makes such a slippery interlocutor, and what Canada can do about it.
Part of the answer begins with Mr. Ross. He is among a growing troupe of Trump administration officials who have been ejected from the President’s inner circle with terrifying force and speed, often while being bashed in the press, or on Mr. Trump’s Twitter account, on the way out.
This has led Canadian officials down all manner of blind alleys. Think of the apparent rapport between Mr. Trudeau’s principal secretary, Gerald Butts, and erstwhile Trump consigliere Steve Bannon – exiled from the White House in August and more recently torched by the President for some damaging quotes he gave to the author Michael Wolff. The once-touted cross-border relationship between top strategists has lost all value.
The trouble is, there’s no way to predict who will run afoul of Mr. Trump. He is touchy and moody in the extreme, prone to bouts of seemingly random distemper, and easily offended. He is also utterly treacherous, apparently loyal to no one except perhaps for his daughter Ivanka.
That latter fact suggests that one Canadian strategy could be fruitful: getting in with the family. Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner are close advisers to the President, and hard to fire. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has worked hard to woo Ivanka, taking her to a Broadway show and bonding over their shared feminism.
But this points to the deeper difficulty of convincing Mr. Trump that NAFTA is good for the U.S., or convincing him of anything, really: He is so prone to having his mind changed that any Friend of Canada in the Oval Office, be it Ivanka or someone else, is liable to have her work undone by the next person to brief him, or by a talking head on Fox News.
Many people who have dealt with Mr. Trump report that his position on an issue tends to align with that of the last person he spoke to. Since he reportedly likes to watch TV and make phone calls in bed, where he can’t be managed by his chief of staff, it’s impossible to know who will have his attention during eleventh-hour NAFTA negotiations, except that it won’t be someone who resides in Ottawa.
For that reason, the Trudeau government will have to work around the President from here on in. Its ministers and officials should continue to seek allies in Congress, in statehouses and in municipal governments, where people understand the economic devastation that killing NAFTA would bring, and avoid the denizens of a White House who can’t even be sure of where they will be working in six months.
Bluntly put, NAFTA is too important to Canada to perch on a plate of Jell-O.
The Globe and Mail. 23 Jan 2018. ARTICLE. Lost in the NAFTA drama: The easy movement of people
CATHERINE GLAZER, U.S. immigration attorney living in Toronto who has worked for the International Organization for Migration in Geneva
To many observers, the North American free-trade agreement is about money, transactions and trade. To others, it means movement, including the movement of people, at least as it relates to cross-border trade.
Surprisingly, NAFTA’s lesserknown immigration implications have been largely left out of the discussion around recent threats to the treaty. Many people are simply not aware that NAFTA allows certain foreign workers to enter the United States. And while it can’t help everyone make a long-term move, NAFTA certainly does open some doors. Now, we can only speculate as to whether they will soon be slammed shut.
Under NAFTA, citizens of the United States, Mexico and Canada may apply to work in any of the three countries, as long as they have a qualifying temporary employment offer. Because of the reciprocity, it is not necessary to prove that the job won’t be taken away from a citizen.
Most impressively, NAFTA does away with long waits, since some applications are reviewed right at the border. It is even possible to cross at Niagara Falls on foot. U.S. and Mexican applicants working in each other’s countries do require visas from the consulate, but the limited paperwork still makes NAFTA work permits highly attractive.
NAFTA also includes provisions for intracompany transfers and those who qualify as “Treaty Traders,” by earning substantial income from U.S. clients. NAFTA even has a category for those who wish to invest in a U.S. business.
Donald Trump’s intention behind stifling NAFTA may be to somehow benefit the United States, but he could actually inspire the opposite result, at least with respect to the loss of the positive influence of smart Canadian and Mexican NAFTA workers as they leave the U.S. work force. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico might be pleased to welcome a new influx of returning nationals, offer alternative immigration schemes to keep their own foreign workers post-NAFTA and even see “brain drain” leaks sealed off as U.S. immigration becomes less alluring.
All in all, with the travel bans and commitments to “Hiring American,” U.S. immigration policies certainly seem to be narrowing toward exclusion.
Canadian news coverage, on the other hand, has been featuring movement north. Canada recently removed the visa requirement for Mexican visitors and, unlike the United States, even allows for citizens of some countries to be issued work permits directly at the border. A new “Global Skills Strategy” is enabling employers to hire more talented international workers.
Similarly, the magnetism of Mexico has been rising in the news. Its capital has been depicted as a growing economic, artistic and cultural hotspot, drawing inspired professionals from around the globe. Mexico’s technology sector is soaring too. The state of Jalisco, for example, is receiving attention for having a supportive environment that attracts bright newcomers.
And now, with recent turmoil surrounding the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) – a program that protects “Dreamers,” hundreds of thousands of immigrants brought to the United States illegally as children – young, educated and motivated Dreamers may soon be flowing back to Mexico (or off to Canada) to enter the labour force.
To fuel the future, both Mexico and Canada have streamlined their permanent residency procedures. Canada has an effective points system that aims to welcome and keep the skilled. Mexican law allows for its own points system, as well as other useful programs.
So, as Mr. Trump eagerly goes after NAFTA, he won’t stumble upon a happy ending for the United States if his attempts to drown out his fears instead suppress one more viable avenue of movement, further adding to the steady depletion of his country’s legal international work force. The United States may even end up feeling excluded, surrounded by talent and walls that do more than just keep others out.
And for the neighbours watching it all, as the border floodgates start to tremble in the opposite direction, there may be more irony to this than we all thought.
Margaret Wente will return.
REUTERS. JANUARY 23, 2018. Crunch time for NAFTA as negotiators open Montreal round of talks
David Ljunggren, Anthony Esposito
MONTREAL (Reuters) - U.S., Canadian and Mexican negotiators opened a key week-long round of talks to modernize NAFTA on Tuesday amid persistent concerns the Trump administration is preparing to walk away from the trade deal, a move that could roil financial markets.
Time is running out for Canada and Mexico to address U.S. demands for major changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement, which President Donald Trump says has damaged the American economy.
Officials gathered in a Montreal hotel for the sixth and penultimate round of talks, which are supposed to conclude by the end of March to avoid a clash with Mexico’s general elections.
Insiders say the Canadian and Mexican governments are prepared to be flexible on a U.S. demand that the amount of North American content in autos be boosted to qualify for duty-free status in NAFTA.
But Ottawa and Mexico City strongly oppose the proposal that autos produced on the continent should have 50 percent U.S. content. Differences also remain over how to address the U.S. push for changes to various dispute resolution mechanisms.
“The Montreal round ... will be a high-noon moment I think for the agreement,” said James Moore, a former Canadian minister who is a member of a special council advising Canada’s Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland on NAFTA.
Canadian officials are downbeat about the talks amid uncertainty over whether Washington really wants to negotiate or plans to walk away.
“If you’re unsure where the other side wants to go it is really difficult to know what would please them unless you capitulate, and that’s not going to happen,” one person briefed on Ottawa’s negotiating stance said on condition of anonymity.
U.S. chief negotiator John Melle and Canadian chief negotiator Steve Verheul declined to comment on Tuesday.
Trump, who has vowed to undo what he describes as disastrous trade deals, expressed differing views in recent days on what he might do about NAFTA, unsettling investors who worry that one of the world’s largest trading blocs ultimately could be disrupted.
Canada, which sends 75 percent of its goods exports to the United States, has responded to the lack of clarity over the future of the 1994 agreement by attempting to diversify its trade. Earlier on Tuesday, Canada and 10 other nations agreed to sign a reworked Asia-Pacific trade pact. The United States pulled out of an earlier version of the deal.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is currently attending the World Economic Forum meeting to drum up investment. Next month he will spend five days in India, which Canada sees as potentially a bigger trading partner.
Writing by David Ljunggren; Editing by Paul Simao
REUTERS. JANUARY 22, 2018. NAFTA's fate uncertain ahead of Montreal round of talks
David Ljunggren
OTTAWA (Reuters) - The NAFTA trade agreement’s future hangs in the balance this week as negotiators from the United States, Canada and Mexico try to settle major differences over revamping a pact that President Donald Trump has threatened to abandon.
Senior officials from the three nations will meet in Montreal for a week starting on Tuesday in the sixth and penultimate round of talks to modernize the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement.
Trump, who entered office last year pledging to undo what he described as disastrous trade deals, has portrayed NAFTA as grossly unfair to the United States and its workers.
Canada and Mexico, which initially dismissed most of Washington’s demands as unworkable, now say there is room to maneuver. But that still may not be enough to satisfy Trump and impatient U.S. officials.
U.S. threats to walk away from NAFTA, which underpins much of the more than $1 trillion in annual trilateral trade among the three nations, have put markets on edge. The talks are supposed to wrap up by the end of March to avoid clashing with Mexico’s general elections in July.
Trump, who blames NAFTA for killing off hundreds of thousands of U.S. manufacturing jobs and says it has led to a large U.S. trade deficit with Mexico, tweeted last Thursday that “NAFTA is a bad joke!”
Over the last 10 days the Republican president has generated confusion by indicating that he might extend the deadline for talks while saying that walking away from the table would be the best idea.
A council advising Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland on NAFTA has concluded that Washington is most likely to announce that it wants out of the pact. It met with Freeland, who says a positive result is still quite possible, last week.
“There is still a shred of optimism, but I have to say the consensus around the room ... felt like it’s not if, it’s when he’s going to pull the plug,” Rona Ambrose, a council member and former Canadian minister, told CTV television.
Canadian Trade Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne stressed that Ottawa will not compromise its economic interests.
“Canada will not accept proposals that would be harmful to our economy and to Canadians,” he said in a speech in Montreal on Monday.
Nevertheless, a large majority of economists polled by Reuters are betting the treaty will be renegotiated successfully with only marginal changes.
Freeland met Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo in Toronto on Monday to iron out details of the negotiations, and they agreed it will be critical to tackle some of the most complicated issues, Mexico’s Economy Ministry said in a statement.
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
Canada and Mexico initially said they would not even discuss U.S. demands to set minimum levels of North American content for the auto sector, a clause that would terminate the deal if it is not renegotiated every five years, and to end the so-called Chapter 19 dispute mechanism.
Sources close to the talks say Canada and Mexico will now be more flexible on the auto content and dispute resolution issues.
“We have got areas we are going to fight for, obviously, but that doesn’t mean we can’t be creative, nimble, clever,” said one Canadian source familiar with Ottawa’s strategy.
“There can be very strong lines (in the sand) ... it’s not to say you don’t talk around them. Sometimes you find creative ways without necessarily compromising,” said the source, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation.
In Mexico, some of the pessimism palpable in late December has given way to cautious optimism that progress towards a deal is possible in Montreal if the Trump administration is prepared to give ground on its toughest proposals.
Jaime Zabludovsky, one of the Mexican negotiators of the original NAFTA accord and an adviser to the private sector on the current talks, said the negotiations in Montreal would be a decisive test of the countries’ ability to make progress.
“I think we’re at a make-or-break moment,” he said in an interview.
One Mexican source familiar with the process said he expected further talks through March and mentioned the possibility that final discussions could, if necessary, be postponed until after the Mexican elections.
Despite a U.S. government shutdown, Washington will send a team to the Montreal talks, a Trump administration source said.
Additional reporting by Dave Graham in Mexico City and Lesley Wroughton in Washington; Editing by Christian Plumb and Paul Simao
TPP
Global Affairs Canada. January 23, 2018. Minister of International Trade to discuss the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership
The Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of International Trade, will hold a media availability today to discuss the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Event: Media availability
Date: January 23, 2018
Time: 12:45 p.m. ET
Location: Ministers’ Regional Office, 150 King Street West, Suite 2404, Toronto, Ontario
Statement by Minister of International Trade on successful conclusion of Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership
The Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of International Trade, today issued the following statement:
“Strengthening Canada’s economic relationship with countries in the large and economically fast-growing Asia-Pacific region to support prosperity and create jobs for our middle class is a priority for Canada.
“Today, I am pleased to announce that Canada and the 10 other remaining members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership concluded discussions in Tokyo, Japan, on a new Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). We are happy to confirm the achievement of a significant outcome on culture as well as an improved arrangement on autos with Japan, along with the suspension of many intellectual property provisions of concern to Canadian stakeholders.
“Canada has always said that we would only agree to a deal that is in Canada’s best interests. To that end, Canada has been working very hard on the new CPTPP, from spearheading the first meetings of officials in May 2017 to proposing several suspensions and changes to secure better terms for Canadians throughout this burgeoning region.
“Over the past year, we have also worked collaboratively with our partners to make the necessary changes so that the agreement builds real prosperity and creates opportunities. We said from the beginning that we didn’t want just any deal; we wanted a good deal for Canada and for Canadians. Canada went to great lengths to ensure to reach a progressive agreement that will benefit Canada and Canadians for decades to come. These involved a whole-of-government approach and direct engagement at the highest levels. The agreement reached in Tokyo today is the right deal. Our government stood up for Canadian interests, and this agreement meets our objectives of creating and sustaining growth, prosperity and well-paying middle-class jobs today and for generations to come.
“Canada has shown that it can and will work hard to set the terms of trade so the middle class can compete and win on the world stage.
“Canada successfully concluded an agreement with hard-fought gains for Canadians, thanks in large part to a dedicated and hard-working negotiating team and Canada’s special envoy Ian McKay.”
- Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP): http://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/tpp-ptp/index.aspx?lang=eng&_ga=2.38509799.559563642.1516719800-14919203.15009108533
THE GLOBE AND MAIL. THE CANADIAN PRESS. JANUARY 23, 2018. TRADE. Canada, TPP members agree to revised deal without the U.S.
OTTAWA - Canada and the remaining members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreed Tuesday to a revised trade agreement without the United States.
The deal, confirmed by Singapore's government, follows two days of high-level talks in Tokyo between Canada and the 10 other remaining TPP economies. The partners will now work toward signing the agreement by early March, Singapore trade and industry ministry said in a statement.
The deal was announced just hours after a Canadian government official said Ottawa was optimistic that a revised TPP pact would be reached as early as Tuesday.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Canadian Press that Ottawa believed a deal could be struck, even though it would still like to see more progress on negotiations surrounding the automotive and cultural sectors.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau lauded the new agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership as "the right deal" for Canada, saying his Canada's insistence on making key improvements will enrich working Canadians for years to come.
In an address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Trudeau hailed the TPP as a progressive trade pact.
"Our government stood up for Canadian interests and this agreement meets our objectives of creating and sustaining growth and prosperity and well paying middle class jobs today and for generations to come?" He said.
"We are pleased with the progress we have Made to make this deal more progressive and stronger for Canadian workers in intellectual property, culture and the automotive sector"
News of the deal infuriated Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association of Canada, whose organization opposed the changes in the automotive rules of origin in the initial TPP and the subsequent deal negotiated without the Americans.
"We're signing a bad deal because we hope to sell more products that grow on four legs," Mr. Volpe said. "A progressive trade agreement that sells products we've been mastering since Samuel de Champlain."
He said he has been told by federal government officials that the rules of origin in the TPP deal, which say that automotive parts containing between 35 per cent and 45 per cent content from TPP countries can enter the markets of other countries duty-free, don't matter. That compares with North American free-trade agreement rules requiring that vehicles contain 62.5 per cent North American content in order to be travel duty-free between the three NAFTA countries. NAFTA negotiators from Canada, the United States and Mexico are meeting in Montreal this week.
"If the rules of origin don't matter, which is the argument I continue to hear, that flies in the face of the fact that the Japanese won't relent on them," Mr. Volpe said. "And if they don't matter, what are we negotiating on NAFTA right now?"
Canada opposes U.S. proposals to automotive rules of origin in NAFTA and has called those proposals non-starters.
In the auto and auto parts sectors, the Japan Automobile Makers Association of Canada and Linda Hasenfratz, chief executive officer of Linamar Corp. have supported TPP.
A senior Canadian official says the agriculture sector in the U.S. will increase pressure to stay in NAFTA as a result of the TPP deal. The official added the deal also opens Canada's beef exports to Japan at the expense of America cattle farmers.
John Manley, head of the Business Council of Canada, praised the Trudeau government for signing on to the TPP. It sends a message that Canada believes in liberalized trade with the fastest growing region of the world, he said.
"It shows we favour a set of rules with Asia. And by saying Canada is part of TPP - without saying so - the prime minister is saying 'I am not Donald Trump' and that is a good thing," Manley told reporters in Davos.
The pact was also rebranded the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Canada, the second-largest economy among the TPP partners, was widely considered the main holdout in the negotiations.
The Tokyo talks were the first high-level talks since the leaders of the TPP economies met in November on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Danang, Vietnam.
Trudeau made international headlines there by deciding not to sign an agreement-in-principle on what has become known as TPP11.
Trudeau's decision in Vietnam to continue negotiating for a better deal, rather than striking an agreement, led to the abrupt cancellation of a TPP leaders' meeting in Danang.
Many believed the original TPP took a fatal blow when Donald Trump withdrew from the deal in one of his first acts as U.S. president.
With files from The Globe's Robert Fife and Greg Keenan
REUTERS. JANUARY 23, 2018. Canada to sign onto text of revised trans-Pacific trade deal
MONTREAL (Reuters) - Canada will sign on to a revised 11-member Asia-Pacific trade pact, a government source confirmed on Tuesday, saying “Canada has secured real gains” in talks to agree a deal.
Trade officials signed off on a final text earlier in the day after a meeting in Tokyo to overcome challenges such Canada’s insistence on protection of its cultural industries.
Reporting by David LjunggrenEditing by Chizu Nomiyama
BLOOMBERG. 23 January 2018. Pacific Nations Agree to Save TPP Trade Pact After Trump Quit
By Emi Nobuhiro , Yuko Takeo , and Josh Wingrove
- Canada says it got auto, IP, culture changes after holdout
- Pacific trade deal was abandoned by Trump a year ago
The 11 remaining members of a Pacific trade pact abandoned by U.S. President Donald Trump have reached a deal on a revised agreement, with the nations to work toward signing the deal by early March, according to Singapore’s government.
Senior officials resolved outstanding issues, finalized the list of suspended provisions and completed the legal verification of the agreement, concluding negotiations on what has been renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, Singapore’s trade ministry said Tuesday in a statement.
The deal was reached after two days of talks in Tokyo, and came just hours after Trump imposed tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines -- his first major move to level what he says is a global playing field tilted against U.S. companies. The whole agreement looked like it might collapse after contentious negotiations in November, when Canada’s participation was thrown into doubt.
Japan’s Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said Canada has agreed to work toward approving the deal, and he believed they would follow through on that.
“Today, Canada and the 10 other remaining members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership concluded discussions in Tokyo, Japan, on a new Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership,” Joe Pickerill, director of communications for Canadian Trade Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, said Tuesday in an email.
Salvaging Deal
The agreement comes at a pivotal time for Canada, the second-largest economy in the pact after Trump quit. The country is in the midst of talks to update the North American Free Trade Agreement, the trilateral accord with the U.S. and Mexico that Trump is also threatening to quit. Part of the Canadian response to U.S. Nafta threats has been to push to expand trade ties elsewhere, including Asia.
Follow the Trump Administration’s Every Move
The original Trans Pacific Partnership, which would have covered 40 percent of the global economy, was seen as a guarantee of U.S. involvement in Asia and a counterweight to Chinese clout -- an idea thrown into disarray when Trump withdrew in one of his first acts as president. Japan has led a scramble to keep the deal alive, with the hope of enticing the U.S. to return at a later date.
“The CPTPP will enhance trade among countries in the Asia-Pacific, resulting in more seamless flows of goods, services, and investment regionally,” Singaporean Trade Minister Lim Hng Kiang was quoted as saying.
Of the four remaining issues left after the talks in Vietnam in November, the sections of the deal Brunei and Malaysia had a problem with will be frozen, Motegi said. Matters involving Vietnam’s labor rights and Canada’s cultural goods will be dealt with in side letters, which each country agreed to sign separately to the CPTPP deal, he said.
Pickerill said Canada achieved “a significant outcome on culture and an improved arrangement on autos with Japan along with the suspension of many IP provisions of interest to Canadian stakeholders,” referring to intellectual property provisions.
The following countries make up the agreement: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.
— With assistance by Isabel Reynolds, and Andy Sharp
INVESTMENT
Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada. January 23, 2018. Canada announces one of largest foreign direct investments at the World Economic Forum. Strategic Innovation Fund investment in $2.2 billion Nova Chemicals project helps create and maintain 2,200 jobs in Ontario and Alberta
Davos, Switzerland - The Government of Canada is creating well-paying middle-class jobs and growing the economy by investing in Canada’s chemical sector to promote innovation.
Today, the Honourable Navdeep Bains, Minister of Innovation, Science and Economic Development, announced an investment of $35 million in NOVA Chemicals under Canada’s Strategic Innovation Fund. Minister Bains made this announcement in Davos, Switzerland, as a part of his participation at the World Economic Forum.
This $2.2 billion investment in Canada by NOVA Chemicals will result in innovative and cleaner products and will help create and maintain 2,200 jobs in Alberta and Ontario.
NOVA Chemicals will also partner with local colleges and universities to conduct research and create work-integrated learning experiences that will give local students the skills they need to become job-ready.
This investment demonstrates that the Strategic Innovation Fund is attracting and supporting new high-quality business investments in Canada, accelerating areas of economic strength, and expanding the role of Canadian firms in regional and global supply chains.
Quotes
“In addition to helping create and maintain 2,200 jobs in Ontario and Alberta, the Strategic Innovation Fund investment in NOVA Chemicals will further R&D and innovation and will result in more environmentally friendly chemical production. This project demonstrates that Canada has the talent pool and the innovative economy global companies are looking for when they want to grow.”
– The Honourable Navdeep Bains, Minister of Innovation, Science and Economic Development
“We are pleased to support this major investment in Ontario’s chemical industry, which will create jobs, bolster innovation, drive R&D, and help ensure the Sarnia-Lambton region remains a global leader in chemical manufacturing for years to come.”
– The Honourable Steven Del Duca, Ontario Minister of Economic Development and Growth
“With our multi-billion dollar investment in Canada, we will expand NOVA Chemicals’ facilities in Ontario by over 50 percent, further develop our proprietary technology, and grow our already significant R&D and innovation capabilities in both Alberta and Ontario. We are grateful to the federal government for its support and are proud to enhance our asset base in Canada, provide stable, high-paying jobs and help make Canada an even bigger global player in the petrochemicals industry.”
– Naushad Jamani, Senior Vice President, Olefins and Feedstocks, NOVA Chemicals
- NOVA Chemicals employs more than 2,200 people in Canada, which includes over 200 permanent full-time staff engaged in R&D.
- The funded project involves establishing a new polyethylene facility and expanding an existing ethylene facility in Ontario, and developing new catalyst manufacturing capabilities in Alberta.
- It is anticipated that NOVA Chemicals will complete this project by 2022.
- Canada’s $47-billion chemistry industry operates in every province, with key clusters in Ontario, Alberta and Quebec.
- Each job in the industry creates five jobs in other industries. The sector directly employs more than 87,000 Canadians and supports another 435,000 Canadian jobs.
- The Strategic Innovation Fund is a flexible program that reflects the diversity of innovation in all sectors of the economy.
Strategic Innovation Fund: https://www.canada.ca/en/innovation-science-economic-development/programs/strategic-innovation-fund.html
ENERGY
REUTERS. JANUARY 22, 2018. Oil jumps on IMF growth outlook as Brent tops $70 again
David Gaffen
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil rose more than 1 percent on Tuesday with benchmark Brent crude above $70 a barrel for the first time in a week on Tuesday, boosted by healthy world economic growth prospects and expectations for continued production curbs by OPEC, Russia and their allies.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up $1.06 at $70.09 a barrel as of 11:02 a.m. EST (1602 GMT), not far off the three-year high of $70.37 reached on Jan. 15.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 rose $1 to $64.59 a barrel. WTI reached its highest since December 2014 on Jan. 16 at $64.89.
The International Monetary Fund on Monday revised upward its forecast for world economic growth to 3.9 percent for 2018 and 2019, a 0.2 percentage point increase from its last update in October.
“The IMF’s upward revision of its growth forecast is generating tailwind,” Commerzbank analysts wrote. “This further improves the already fairly rosy demand prospects on the oil market.”
The demand growth comes at a time of supply curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, which began in January 2017 and are due to run until the end of 2018.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told CNBC on Tuesday that while he is “still anxious” about the fragility of the oil market, “we think we’re on our way.”
OPEC’s main objective for the cuts is to eliminate a global surplus in oil stocks and rebalance the market. There is some expectation that OPEC will let the agreement expire at the end of 2018, but major producers have not yet suggested that this is in the offing.
In addition, the sharp plunge in Venezuelan production is offsetting increases from the United States, which is on the cusp of breaking its all-time production record of 10.04 million barrels per day.
U.S. Energy Department oil inventory figures will be released Wednesday morning; industry group the American Petroleum Institute will issue data on stocks Tuesday afternoon at 4:30 p.m. EST. [EIA/S]
Venezuela’s output fell to a meager 2 million bpd in 2017, far short of expectations for 2.5 million bpd, and the International Energy Agency said it could keep declining in 2018.
“Six months ago there was a lot of consternation about how fast (U.S.) production might grow but that’s been offset by Venezuelan volatility,” said Tony Scott, managing director of analytics at BTU Analytics in Denver.
He added that with Saudi and Iranian production likely to remain steady throughout the year, it was hard to see an increase in supply that would undermine the rally.
French bank BNP Paribas said it expects inventories to rise near the end of the year. The bank raised its 2018 oil price forecasts by $10 a barrel, expecting WTI to average $60 and Brent $65.
Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Edmund Blair
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