US ECONOMICS
U.S. Department of State. 12/28/2017. Press Releases: "I Am Proud of Our Diplomacy". Op-Ed. Rex W. Tillerson, Secretary of State. Published at The New York Times on. December 27, 2017
Over the past year, the United States has faced immense challenges in its dealings with North Korea, China and Russia, and in its efforts to defeat international terrorism. But Americans should be encouraged by the progress the State Department and United States Agency for International Development have made in pushing for global peace and stability.
When President Trump took office, he identified North Korea as the United States’ greatest security threat. He abandoned the failed policy of strategic patience. In its place we carried out a policy of pressure through diplomatic and economic sanctions. This year, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted three of the strongest sanctions resolutions in history, including bans on a wide array of North Korean exports such as coal, iron, seafood and textiles.
The United States has asked allies and partners to exert unilateral pressure against North Korea in order to force the regime to change its behavior. Many have responded with positive steps like shutting down trade, severing diplomatic ties and expelling North Korean laborers. Our peaceful pressure campaign has cut off roughly 90 percent of North Korea’s export revenue, much of which is used to fund illegal weapons development.
We hope that this international isolation will pressure the regime into serious negotiations on the abandonment of its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. A door to dialogue remains open, but we have made it clear that the regime must earn its way back to the negotiating table. Until denuclearization occurs, the pressure will continue.
A central component of our North Korea strategy is persuading China to exert its decisive economic leverage on Pyongyang. China has applied certain import bans and sanctions, but it could and should do more. We will also continue to pursue American interests in other areas of our relationship, including trade imbalances, intellectual property theft and China’s troubling military activities in the South China Sea and elsewhere. China’s rise as an economic and military power requires Washington and Beijing to consider carefully how to manage our relationship for the next 50 years.
Defeating terrorism remains one of the president’s highest priorities. The administration’s aggressive strategy to counter the Islamic State delegates greater authority to American military commanders on the battlefield, giving our forces more freedom and speed to do what they do best, in partnership with indigenous fighting forces. As a result, the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS has accelerated operations and has recaptured virtually all of previously held Islamic State territory in Iraq and Syria. While our military was helping clear Iraq and Syria of Islamic State forces, our diplomats were following up with humanitarian aid and assistance, such as clearing land mines, restoring water and power, and getting children back in school.
A commitment to stopping Islamist terrorism and extremism also motivated the administration’s decision to adopt a new South Asia strategy, which focuses on Afghanistan. That country cannot become a safe haven for terrorists, as it was in the days before the Sept. 11 attacks. Pakistan must contribute by combating terrorist groups on its own soil. We are prepared to partner with Pakistan to defeat terrorist organizations seeking safe havens, but Pakistan must demonstrate its desire to partner with us.
On Russia, we have no illusions about the regime we are dealing with. The United States today has a poor relationship with a resurgent Russia that has invaded its neighbors Georgia and Ukraine in the last decade and undermined the sovereignty of Western nations by meddling in our election and others’. The appointment of Kurt Volker, a former NATO ambassador, as special representative for Ukraine reflects our commitment to restoring the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Absent a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine situation, which must begin with Russia’s adherence to the Minsk agreements, there cannot be business as usual with Russia.
While we are on guard against Russian aggression, we recognize the need to work with Russia where mutual interests intersect. Nowhere is that more evident than in Syria. Now that President Vladimir Putin has committed to the United Nations-backed Geneva political process for providing a new future for Syria, we expect Russia to follow through. We are confident that the fulfillment of these talks will produce a Syria that is free of Bashar al-Assad and his family.
Lastly, the flawed Iran nuclear deal is no longer the focal point of our policy toward Iran. We are now confronting the totality of Iranian threats. Part of this strategy entails rebuilding alliances with our partners in the Middle East, and in November we helped re-establish diplomatic ties between Iraq and Saudi Arabia. We will continue to work with our allies and with Congress to explore options for addressing the nuclear deal’s many flaws, while building a like-minded effort to punish Iran for its violations of ballistic missile commitments and its destabilizing activities in the region.
I am proud of what our State Department and Agency for International Development teams around the world have accomplished this year, and our progress will continue in 2018 and beyond. To that end, we have undertaken a redesign of the State Department to strengthen our teams’ ability to deliver on our mission.
Our redesign doesn’t involve simply shifting boxes on an organizational chart. Our changes must address root problems that lead to inefficiencies and frustrations. By making changes like streamlining our human resources and information technology systems, better aligning personnel and resources with America’s strategic priorities, and reforming duplicative processes, we are giving our people more opportunities to flourish professionally and spend more time confronting the global problems they have dedicated their careers to solving.
When I wake up each morning, my first thought is, “How can I and my colleagues at the State Department use diplomacy to prevent people around the world from being killed, wounded or deprived of their rights?” In spite of the challenges, I remain optimistic about the power of diplomacy to resolve conflicts and advance American interests. My confidence comes from the knowledge that our efforts are carried out daily by patriotic and dedicated State Department employees who make sacrifices to serve with patience and persistence and who, by advancing democratic values the world over, are protecting our citizens’ rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
U.S. Census Bureau. 12/28/2017. Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods
The advance international trade deficit in goods increased to $69.7 billion in November from $68.1 billion in October as imports increased more than exports.
- November 2017: 69.7° $ billion
- October 2017: 68.1° $ billion
(*) The 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
(°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable for these surveys. The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders estimates are not based on a probability sample, so we can neither measure the sampling error of these estimates nor compute confidence intervals.
(r) Revised.
All estimates are seasonally adjusted except for the Rental Vacancy Rate, Home Ownership Rate, Quarterly Financial Report for Retail Trade, and Quarterly Services Survey. None of the estimates are adjusted for price changes.
DoC. BEA. December 28, 2017. U.S. Net International Investment Position, Third Quarter 2017
The U.S. net international investment position increased to -$7,768.7 billion (preliminary) at the end of the third quarter of 2017 from -$8,004.1 billion (revised) at the end of the second quarter, according to statistics released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The $235.4 billion increase reflected a $1,001.2 billion increase in U.S. assets and a $765.8 billion increase in U.S. liabilities (table 1).
The $235.4 billion increase in the net investment position reflected net financial transactions of –$87.4 billion and net other changes in position, such as price and exchange-rate changes, of $322.8 billion (table A).
The net investment position increased 2.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in the second quarter, and an average quarterly decrease of 5.3 percent from the first quarter of 2011 through the first quarter of 2017.
U.S. assets increased $1,001.2 billion to $26,854.9 billion at the end of the third quarter, mostly reflecting increases in portfolio investment and direct investment assets that were partly offset by a decrease in financial derivatives.
- Assets excluding financial derivatives increased $1,227.5 billion to $25,149.7 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $869.2 billion and financial transactions of $358.2 billion (table A). Other changes in position mostly reflected foreign equity price increases that raised the equity value of portfolio investment and direct investment assets, and the appreciation of major foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar that raised the value of foreign-currency-denominated assets in dollar terms. Financial transactions mostly reflected net acquisition of portfolio investment assets.
- Financial derivatives decreased $226.2 billion to $1,705.1 billion, mostly in single-currency interest rate contracts.
| Position, 2017:II | Change in position in 2017:III | Position, 2017:III | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Attributable to: | ||||
| Financial transactions | Other changes in position 1 | ||||
| U.S. net international investment position | -8,004.1 | 235.4 | -87.4 | 322.8 | -7,768.7 |
| Net position excluding financial derivatives | -8,041.2 | 238.7 | -106.0 | 344.7 | -7,802.5 |
| Financial derivatives other than reserves, net | 37.1 | -3.3 | 18.6 | -21.9 | 33.8 |
| U.S. assets | 25,853.6 | 1,001.2 | (2) | (2) | 26,854.9 |
| Assets excluding financial derivatives | 23,922.3 | 1,227.5 | 358.2 | 869.2 | 25,149.7 |
| Financial derivatives other than reserves | 1,931.3 | -226.2 | (2) | (2) | 1,705.1 |
| U.S. liabilities | 33,857.8 | 765.8 | (2) | (2) | 34,623.6 |
| Liabilities excluding financial derivatives | 31,963.5 | 988.8 | 464.2 | 524.6 | 32,952.3 |
| Financial derivatives other than reserves | 1,894.3 | -223.0 | (2) | (2) | 1,671.3 |
| 1 Disaggregation of other changes in position into price changes, exchange-rate changes, and other changes in volume and valuation is only presented for annual statistics released in June each year. | |||||
| 2 Financial transactions and other changes in financial derivatives positions are available only on a net basis; they are not separately available for U.S. assets and U.S. liabilities. | |||||
- Liabilities excluding financial derivatives increased $988.8 billion to $32,952.3 billion. The increase resulted from other changes in position of $524.6 billion and financial transactions of $464.2 billion (table A). Other changes in position mostly reflected U.S. equity price increases that raised the equity value of portfolio investment and direct investment liabilities. Financial transactions mostly reflected net incurrence of portfolio investment liabilities.
- Financial derivatives decreased $223.0 billion to $1,671.3 billion, mostly in single-currency interest rate contracts.
| Preliminary estimate | Revised estimate | |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. net international investment position | -7,934.9 | -8,004.1 |
| U.S. assets | 25,937.6 | 25,853.6 |
| Direct investment at market value | 8,202.0 | 8,125.2 |
| Portfolio investment | 11,210.6 | 11,206.8 |
| Financial derivatives other than reserves | 1,931.3 | 1,931.3 |
| Other investment | 4,157.9 | 4,154.6 |
| Reserve assets | 435.7 | 435.7 |
| U.S. liabilities | 33,872.5 | 33,857.8 |
| Direct investment at market value | 8,162.1 | 8,134.5 |
| Portfolio investment | 18,451.0 | 18,462.6 |
| Financial derivatives other than reserves | 1,894.3 | 1,894.3 |
| Other investment | 5,365.1 | 5,366.3 |
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ECONOMICA BRASILEIRA/BRAZIL ECONOMICS
FGV. IBRE. 28-Dez-2017. Indicador de Incerteza da Economia. Incerteza da Economia tem ligeiro avanço no mês
O Indicador de Incerteza da Economia (IIE-Br) da Fundação Getulio Vargas avançou 0,8 ponto entre novembro e dezembro de 2017, ao passar de 112,8 pontos para 113,6 pontos.
“Terminamos o ano com o indicador de incerteza com 1 desvio-padrão acima da média histórica. Como já havíamos ressaltado anteriormente, as dificuldades para aprovar as reformas estruturantes, o desequilíbrio fiscal e as divisões político-partidárias parecem criar dificuldades para que a incerteza econômica volte para o seu nível histórico. Para 2018, fica difícil imaginar que o patamar do IIE-BR fique abaixo dos 110 pontos e, devido as eleições, espera-se que o indicador fique ainda mais volátil.”, afirma o economista Pedro Costa Ferreira da FGV\IBRE
O avanço discreto do IIE-Br em dezembro de 2017 foi determinado pela componente mídia, que registrou alta de 3,7 pontos no mês, contribuindo com 3,3 pontos para o comportamento do índice geral. O IIE-Br mercado e o IIE-Br expectativa apresentaram comportamento inverso, registrando queda de 6,2 pontos e contribuição de -0,8 ponto para o componente mercado e queda de 6,8 pontos e contribuição de -1,7 para a componente expectativa.
FGV. IBRE. 28-Dez-2017. Sondagens e Índices de Confiança. Sondagem da Indústria. Confiança da indústria avança e atinge maior nível desde janeiro de 2014
O Índice de Confiança da Indústria (ICI) da Fundação Getulio Vargas avançou 1,3 ponto em dezembro de 2017, para 99,6 pontos, o maior desde janeiro de 2014 (100,1 pontos). Após seis altas consecutivas, o ICI encerra o ano 14,9 pontos acima do mesmo mês do ano anterior.
“O resultado de dezembro traz boas notícias. A indústria percebe melhora no ambiente de negócios e acredita na manutenção dessa trajetória favorável nos próximos meses. Ao passar de 100 pontos, o Índice de Expectativas retrata otimismo quanto ao futuro próximo – pela primeira vez desde setembro de 2013, há prevalência de respostas otimistas na pesquisa, o que reforça a perspectiva do setor de continuidade da recuperação da confiança em 2018”, afirma Tabi Thuler Santos, coordenadora da Sondagem da Indústria da FGV IBRE.
Melhora no ambiente de negócios
A alta da confiança industrial alcançou 11 dos 19 segmentos industriais em dezembro de 2017. O Índice de Expectativas (IE) subiu 1,4 ponto, para 100,8 pontos, o maior desde junho de 2013 (105,1). O Índice da Situação Atual (ISA) subiu 1,3 ponto, para 98,5 pontos, o maior desde fevereiro de 2014 (99,5).
A melhora na percepção sobre os negócios foi o principal fator a contribuir para a alta do ISA em dezembro. O indicador de situação atual dos negócios subiu 3,4 pontos, para 95,2 pontos pontos – o maior desde abril de 2014 (98,0). A parcela de empresas que avaliam a situação como boa caiu de 15,8% para 14,8% do total, mas a parcela das que a consideram ruim caiu em maior proporção, de 25,2% para 20,2% do total.
O indicador de expectativas com a evolução dos negócios nos seis meses seguintes avançou 5,4 pontos, para 103,1 pontos – o maior desde junho de 2013 (105,3), sendo a principal contribuição para a alta do IE no mês. Houve aumento da proporção de empresas prevendo melhora nos negócios, de 42,7% para 45,7% do total, e diminuição da proporção das que esperam piora nos negócios, de 14,8% para 9,0% do total.
O Nível de Utilização da Capacidade Instalada (NUCI) aumentou 0,3 ponto percentual (p.p.) entre novembro e dezembro, para 74,5%, o maior desde julho deste ano. Na métrica trimestral, o NUCI avança 0,1 p.p. no quarto trimestre em relação ao trimestre anterior, para 74,3%.
A edição de dezembro de 2017 coletou informações de 1.101 empresas entre os dias 01 e 22 deste mês.
DOCUMENTO: http://portalibre.fgv.br/main.jsp?lumPageId=402880972283E1AA0122841CE9191DD3&contentId=8A7C82C55EC04CF101609C80E68653FA
FGV. IBRE. 28-Dez-2017. Índices Gerais de Preços. IGP-M. IGP-M avança em dezembro
O Índice Geral de Preços – Mercado (IGP-M) variou 0,89%, em dezembro. Em novembro, o índice variou 0,52%. Em dezembro de 2016, a variação foi de 0,54%. A variação acumulada em 2017, de janeiro a dezembro, foi de -0,52%. Em 2016, para igual período, o IGP-M registrou alta de 7,17%. O IGP-M é calculado com base nos preços coletados entre os dias 21 do mês anterior e 20 do mês de referência.
O Índice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo (IPA) apresentou taxa de variação de 1,24%. No mês anterior, a taxa foi de 0,66%. O índice relativo aos Bens Finais variou 0,48%, em dezembro. Em novembro, este grupo de produtos mostrou variação de 0,50%. Contribuiu para esta desaceleração o subgrupo combustíveis para o consumo, cuja taxa de variação passou de 9,17% para 3,67%. Excluindo-se os subgrupos alimentos in natura e combustíveis para o consumo, o índice de Bens Finais (ex) registrou variação de 0,42%. Em novembro, a taxa foi de 0,27%.
O índice referente ao grupo Bens Intermediários variou 1,01%. Em novembro, a taxa foi de 1,93%. O principal responsável por este movimento foi o subgrupo combustíveis e lubrificantes para a produção,cuja taxa de variação passou de 4,78% para 1,47%. O índice de Bens Intermediários (ex), calculado após a exclusão do subgrupo combustíveis e lubrificantes para a produção, variou 0,93%, ante 1,49%, em novembro.
No estágio inicial da produção, o índice do grupo Matérias-Primas Brutas variou 2,50%, em dezembro. Em novembro, o índice registrou variação de -0,68%. Os itens que mais contribuíram para este movimento foram: minério de ferro (-9,41% para 9,48%), bovinos (-1,33% para 2,92%) e leite in natura (-3,76% para -0,33%). Em sentido oposto, destacam-se: soja (em grão) (3,69% para 1,46%), mandioca (aipim) (5,91% para 0,71%)e milho (em grão) (5,09% para 2,92%).
O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) registrou variação de 0,30%, em dezembro, ante 0,28%, em novembro. A principal contribuição em sentido ascendente partiu do grupo Alimentação (-0,19% para 0,13%). Nesta classe de despesa, vale citar o comportamento do item laticínios, cuja taxa passou de -1,46% para 0,42%.
Também apresentaram acréscimos em suas taxas de variação os grupos: Educação, Leitura e Recreação (-0,10% para 0,87%), Vestuário (-0,32% para 0,61%), Transportes (0,62% para 0,78%), Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,40% para 0,44%) e Despesas Diversas (-0,03% para 0,18%). Nestas classes de despesa, os destaques partiram dos itens: passagem aérea (-7,63% para 13,77%), roupas (-0,46% para 0,77%), tarifa de táxi (0,00% para 5,83%), serviços de cuidados pessoais (0,41% para 0,68%) e alimentos para animais domésticos (-1,57% para 1,20%), respectivamente.
Em contrapartida, apresentaram decréscimo em suas taxas de variação os grupos: Habitação (0,77% para -0,06%)e Comunicação (0,32% para -0,19%).Para cada uma dessas classes de despesa, vale citar o comportamento dos itens: tarifa de eletricidade residencial (3,93% para -1,49%) e tarifa de telefone móvel (0,59% para -0,02%), respectivamente.
O Índice Nacional de Custo da Construção (INCC) registrou, em dezembro, taxa de variação de 0,14%. No mês anterior, este índice variou 0,28%. O índice relativo a Materiais, Equipamentos e Serviços registrou variação de 0,22%. No mês anterior, a taxa havia sido de 0,61%. O índice que representa o custo da Mão de Obra registrou variação de 0,07%. No mês anterior, este índice não variou.
DOCUMENTO: http://portalibre.fgv.br/main.jsp?lumPageId=402880972283E1AA0122841CE9191DD3&contentId=8A7C82C55EC04CF101609C6FA1F67152
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LGCJ.:
