US ECONOMICS

DoC. BEA. US Census. October 5, 2017. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES August 2017

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce,
announced today that the goods and services deficit was $42.4 billion in August, down $1.2 billion
from $43.6 billion in July, revised. August exports were $195.3 billion, $0.8 billion more than
July exports. August imports were $237.7 billion, $0.4 billion less than July imports.

The August decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of
$0.9 billion to $64.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $22.0 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $29.1 billion, or 8.8 percent, from the
same period in 2016. Exports increased $84.9 billion or 5.8 percent. Imports increased $114.0 billion
or 6.4 percent.

Goods and Services Three-Month Moving Averages (Exhibit 2)

The average goods and services deficit decreased $1.3 billion to $43.2 billion for the three months
ending in August.
     * Average exports of goods and services increased $1.0 billion to $194.9 billion in August.
     * Average imports of goods and services decreased $0.3 billion to $238.1 billion in August.

Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $1.1 billion from the three months
ending in August 2016.
     * Average exports of goods and services increased $9.4 billion from August 2016.
     * Average imports of goods and services increased $10.5 billion from August 2016.

Exports (Exhibits 3, 6, and 7)

Exports of goods increased $0.6 billion to $129.2 billion in August.
    Exports of goods on a Census basis increased $0.1 billion.
         * Consumer goods increased $1.0 billion.
             o Pharmaceutical preparations increased $0.6 billion.
         * Capital goods increased $0.4 billion.
             o Telecommunications equipment increased $0.4 billion.
         * Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.0 billion.
             o Fuel oil decreased $0.7 billion.
         * Foods, feeds, and beverages decreased $0.4 billion.
    Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.5 billion.

Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $66.1 billion in August.
         * Travel (for all purposes including education), other business services (which includes
  research and development services; professional and management services; and technical,
  trade-related, and other services), and financial services each increased $0.1 billion.
         * Transport, which includes freight and port services and passenger fares, decreased $0.2
  billion.

Imports (Exhibits 4, 6, and 8)

Imports of goods decreased $0.3 billion to $193.6 billion in August.
    Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $0.4 billion.
         * Industrial supplies and materials decreased $0.5 billion.
             o Finished metal shapes decreased $0.2 billion.
             o Copper decreased $0.2 billion.
         * Capital goods decreased $0.5 billion.
             o Computer accessories decreased $0.3 billion.
             o Civilian aircraft decreased $0.2 billion.
         * Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines increased $0.7 billion.
             o Passenger cars increased $0.5 billion.
    Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion.

Imports of services decreased $0.1 billion to $44.1 billion in August.
         * Transport decreased $0.2 billion.
         * Travel (for all purposes including education) increased $0.1 billion.

Real Goods in 2009 Dollars – Census Basis (Exhibit 11)

The real goods deficit decreased less than $0.1 billion to $61.8 billion in August.
         * Real exports of goods decreased $1.1 billion to $125.2 billion.
         * Real imports of goods decreased $1.1 billion to $187.0 billion.

Revisions

Revisions to July exports
     * Exports of goods were revised up less than $0.1 billion.
     * Exports of services were revised up $0.1 billion.
Revisions to July imports
     * Imports of goods were revised down less than $0.1 billion.
     * Imports of services were revised up less than $0.1 billion.

Goods by Selected Countries and Areas: Monthly – Census Basis (Exhibit 19)

The August figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($2.7),
Hong Kong ($2.5), Singapore ($0.8), United Kingdom ($0.6), and Brazil ($0.4). Deficits were recorded,
in billions of dollars, with China ($29.7), European Union ($10.9), Japan ($6.3), Mexico ($5.8),
Germany ($4.8), Italy ($2.5), South Korea ($2.1), India ($1.6), Taiwan ($1.5), France ($0.8),
OPEC ($0.8), Canada ($0.4), and Saudi Arabia ($0.1).

     * The deficit with China decreased $2.1 billion to $29.7 billion in August. Exports increased
       $0.8 billion to $11.6 billion and imports decreased $1.2 billion to $41.3 billion.
     * The deficit with the European Union decreased $1.2 billion to $10.9 billion in August. Exports
       increased $1.4 billion to $24.2 billion and imports increased $0.2 billion to $35.1 billion.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2017/pdf/trad0817.pdf

DoC. USITC. 10/05/2017. U.S. Department of Commerce Defers the Issuance of the Preliminary Antidumping Duty Determination on Aluminum Foil from the People's Republic of China

Today, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross announced that the Department will defer issuing its preliminary determination in the antidumping duty (AD) investigation on aluminum foil from China.  The deferral will allow the Commerce Department to fully analyze information pertaining to China’s status as a non-market economy (NME) country, which is being contemplated within the context of this AD investigation.

“In all cases, the Department conducts a full and fair assessment of the facts,” said Secretary Ross.  “This extension will ensure that the highest standards are followed in this case as we seek to guarantee fair treatment for U.S. workers and businesses.”

Enforcement of U.S. trade law is a prime focus of the Trump administration.  The antidumping duty law provides U.S. businesses and workers with an internationally accepted mechanism to seek relief from the harmful effects of unfairly priced imports into the United States.  Secretary Ross has vowed to make use of all tools available to hold our trading partners accountable and a fulsome review of China’s NME status is the bedrock of this promise.  Conducting a thorough and comprehensive inquiry on China’s NME status is critical to upholding the principle of fair trade. 

The Department intends to issue its preliminary determination in this investigation, including a decision on China’s NME status, no later than November 30, 2017.  A final determination will be made 75 days after this preliminary decision, unless postponed at a later date.

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Enforcement and Compliance unit within the International Trade Administration is responsible for vigorously enforcing U.S. trade laws and does so through an impartial, transparent process that abides by international law and is based solely on factual evidence.

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ORGANISMS

ITC. 04 Oct. 2017. Deeper and wider trade integration more beneficial for small businesses. SME Competitiveness Outlook 2017 finds that deep regional integration generates more value-chain activity and helps improve SMEs’ competitiveness. Trade agreements with investment provisions encourage greater domestic value added than stand-alone bilateral investment treaties 

(Geneva) – Comprehensive trade agreements that provide for deep regional integration are better at connecting small businesses to value chains and ultimately better for building more inclusive growth. According to the International Trade Centre’s SME Competitiveness Outlook 2017 – The Region: A Door to Global Trade, deeper regional integration turns out to be a major success factor in developing multi-country value chains, which in turn raises the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This finding is particularly interesting given the current debate on the utility of expanding the content and depth of trade agreements. 

Released today, the 2017 edition of the SME Competitiveness Outlook combines data analysis, academic insights and case studies to provide guidance for policymakers, business managers and trade and investment support institutions on how best to help SMEs navigate regional trade as a springboard to move up the value chain and increase the chances of going global. The report contains thought leader contributions from Thahirwa Dieudonné, Managing Director, Gashora Farm, Rwanda; Tony O. Elumelu, Founder, the Tony Elemelu Foundation; Mukhisa Kituyi, Secretary-General, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development; Susana Malcorra, Minister Advisor, Government of Argentina; and Ying McGuire, Global Vice-President, Technology Integration Group. 

The report finds that trade agreements – especially ‘deep integration’ deals that combine trade provisions with those on foreign investment – are associated with increased domestic value added for exports. The conclusions are drawn on novel econometric analysis of 261 bilateral and multi-country trade agreements involving more than 150 countries and territories. While trade agreements that include investment provisions are associated with a 2% increase of the domestic content in value-chain exports, stand-alone bilateral investment treaties do not have an effect on domestic value added.

Increasing value-chain activity in turn appears to boost the competitiveness of SMEs more than it does that of larger domestic companies. The report finds that for each additional policy area – such as investment, dispute settlement, competition policy, intellectual property or environmental provisions – covered by a country’s trade agreements, there is a 2.5% increase in the country’s integration into value-chain trade. 

More significantly, this leads to a 1.25% reduction in the competitiveness gap between small and large firms. This can have substantial impacts given that this reduction represents, for example, the difference between the competitiveness gap in countries like Botswana and Ecuador and that in Eastern European countries that belong to highly competitive regional value chains. 

Increased firm-level capacity of SMEs implies being in a better position to be selected by international buyers, to operate successfully within value chains and to upgrade or expand within such chains. Overall it increases SMEs’ bargaining power within the value chain and reduces the risk of being locked into the lower ends of value chains. Being able to negotiate better contracts with their buyers also puts SMEs in a position to offer better terms to their own employees. 

Gender is also a feature of the Outlook, with findings showing that there has been an increase in provisions covering gender equality and SMEs in trade agreements. In 1995-1999, 14% of trade agreements had references to gender equality; in 2010-2016, 47% of agreements referred to gender equality. SME provisions were part of only 6% of trade agreements in 1995-1999, whereas in 2010-2016, 25% of trade agreements contained SME provisions.

‘Including provisions on gender equality and SMEs has to be part of modern trade agreements,’ said ITC Executive Director Arancha González. ‘Even when they are not legally binding, they send an important signal that efforts need to be made to create a level playing-field for all. It is all about the need for greater coherence between economic and inclusiveness policies.’ 

‘The potential of SMEs to connect to foreign markets depends on the extent of value-chain activity nearby,’ González said. ‘As this report shows, most value-chain activity takes place within regional value chains, with suppliers serving lead firms in the regional hub. This means that creating an environment that facilitates regional value chain activity is important for the inclusiveness of trade.’

The report also examines recent regional infrastructure initiatives – such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative – that explicitly recognize the interaction between infrastructure, trade and regional integration. 

Regional competitiveness

In line with other research, the report shows that regional value-chain activity is highest in Europe, Asia and North America. ITC’s competitiveness analysis, based on firm-level capacity, strength of the ecosystem and the national environment, makes it possible to assess why this is the case. While trade and investment policies play an important role, they are not the sole determinant.

Among the report’s findings are that traditional ‘headquarter’ economies in Europe (for example, France and Germany) and Asia (for example, Japan and the Republic of Korea) are surrounded by countries with a strong supplier base that facilitates regional value-chain activity. Both regions are also characterized by the emergence of new headquarter economies, notably China in the Asian region. 

In contrast, the top competitiveness performers in Latin America and the Caribbean are weaker than their European and Asian counterparts, and are not fully exploiting the potential to become headquarter economies. Africa, meanwhile, remains split in two, with countries north of the Sahara serving value chains headquartered in Europe, while regional value-chain activity remains weak elsewhere on the continent.

The 50 country profiles contained in the report allow readers to develop a deeper understanding of which sectors have the potential to attract foreign investors and how national suppliers are positioned to serve or lead international value chains. In addition, the report contains five detailed stories of successful supplier integration: cocoa in Ghana, the automotive industry in Hungary, horticulture in Kenya, the electronics industry in Indonesia and the aerospace industry in Morocco. Together, they provide useful insights into the components of an effective value chain strategy. 

Key findings of the Outlook include:

• Deep regional trade integration can help deliver more inclusive economic growth. 
• Deep integration trade deals spur activity in cross-border value chains for goods and services.
• Increasing value-chain activity helps boost the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises.
• Narrowing the competitiveness gap between small and large firms helps reduce income inequality.
• Bilateral investment treaties do not measurably stimulate domestic value-added in exports through value chains. Integrating investment provisions in trade agreements does. 
• Investment into regional infrastructure has to be part and parcel of regional trade and investment strategies and cannot only come as an afterthought. 
• Lack of regional hubs means sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America (excluding Mexico) are less integrated in international value chains than Asia, Europe and North America (including Mexico). 
• China has the capacity to act as a headquarter economy in Asia and a number of Eastern European countries can move into this position in Europe.
• Regional top performers like South Africa in Africa and Chile and Colombia in South America are the most likely candidates to take up positions as ‘headquarter’ economies.

FULL DOCUMENT: http://www.intracen.org/uploadedFiles/intracenorg/Content/Publications/smeco17.pdf

IMF. IMF COUNTRY FOCUS. October 5, 2017. Missed Opportunities: The Economic History of Latin America. Latin America, home to about 600 million people, is blessed with natural resources, fertile land, and vibrant cultures, yet the region remains much poorer than its neighbors to the north. Why has no country in Latin America reached living standards like those enjoyed by other countries?
Felipe Larraín is Professor of Economics at the Catholic University of Chile and Director of Clapes UC

In a new book, The Economics of Contemporary Latin America, Beatriz Armendáriz and Felipe Larraín analyze the historical roots of Latin America’s economic and social development dating back to the colonial times.

We talked to Felipe Larraín, Professor of Economics at the Catholic University of Chile, Director of Clapes UC, and former Minister of Finance of Chile, about how the region’s legacies have shaped its economic evolution.


Latin America has vast natural resources and a talented population. Why has the region remained so poor compared with its northern neighbors?

Our book highlights five theories of why Latin America has lagged behind, some of which date back to the region’s colonial origins.

The first is geography. Over 70 percent of Latin America is in the tropics, which makes everything more difficult. The region is more exposed to disease—malaria, yellow fever, dengue, cholera, and others—and it is far from key markets.

Second, Latin America was exposed to civil law tradition after independence, as opposed to common law. A common law system—where judges have a more active role—is more conducive to economic growth and development.

Third is large-scale agricultural plantations in Latin America. In the North, there was more mixed farming centered on grains and livestock, and smaller units, which led to more democratic political institutions, a more robust protection of property rights, and a larger middle class.

Fourth, the region’s institutional legacy is a part of the story too, where institutional arrangements in the South are weaker as opposed to the North.

And finally, ethno-linguistic and cultural fragmentation in Latin America, which goes back to the colonial periods, have also held back the region, although the influence of this factor is much less important than in Africa, for example.

A few decades ago, Latin America’s per capita income was higher than in many Asian countries. Why hasn’t the region been able to grow as fast as Asia?

Indeed, in the early 1960s, Latin America’s per capita income was more than double that of East Asia. And today the region lags significantly behind. Several Asian countries that started from low levels of income 50 years ago—such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong—have become developed nations. No country in Latin America can be named developed, although a few are higher-middle income.

One important reason for this large gap is protectionism. Starting in the 1950s, Latin America tried to develop based on import substitution industrialization, which is the idea that you need to protect your industries from outside competition in order to become industrialized. Three decades later, this was a complete failure and these protected industries didn’t grow. And it left Latin America highly exposed to the debt crisis of the 1980s.

During this period, East Asia was fully into export promotion, tax incentives to exporters, low trade barriers, less protectionism, and fewer controls and regulations. In contrast to Latin America, Asian countries also had a stable macroeconomic environment during this time—smaller fiscal deficit (sometimes surpluses) and low and stable inflation rates. Asian economies also avoided overvalued currencies, something that Latin America was unable to do.

But there have been a few success stories in Latin America. Can you give us a couple of examples?

A historical example is Argentina at the end of the 19th century. During that period, Argentina was a richly endowed country whose per capita income was among the top 10 highest in the world. Unfortunately, that performance was not sustained during the 20th century.

A more recent example is Chile. Starting in the late 1980s, Chile began to grow significantly with the opening of its markets to international trade and by creating an environment that was more attractive to foreign direct investment. The government also focused more on improving social conditions. There was a dip after the Asian crisis but right now, Chile is the country with the highest per capita income in the region—about $23,000—and lowest poverty rate.

In the 1980s, a massive debt crisis sent Latin America into a severe recession. Why was the region less affected by the 2008–09 financial crisis in the United States and the more recent euro zone crisis?

The 1980s was a terrible decade for the region. We call it the lost decade because per capita income at the end of the decade was similar to what it was at the beginning. The period between 1982 and 1984 was especially difficult for many countries, with some of them in deep recessions for two and even three years.

It took Latin America a while to recover. After this experience, the region became more outward looking and more conscious of the importance of maintaining macroeconomic balances—low fiscal deficits, low and stable inflation, and avoiding overvalued exchange rates.

The region also strengthened its policies and created better institutions. For example, several countries made their central banks independent in the 1990s and 2000s, and put in place fiscal rules to help fiscal policy play a countercyclical role—to save during good times and spend more during bad times.

These improvements have helped the region be better equipped to deal with more recent crises.

Several episodes of boom and bust in global commodity markets have hurt the region. How can Latin America avoid these boom-bust cycles?

The first thing is to recognize that, no matter how much Latin America has been able to do diversify its export base, most countries continue to be highly dependent on commodities. The region therefore needs to develop an institutional framework that allows Latin Americans to live better under these conditions.

The only country in Latin America that has been able to diversify away from commodities is Mexico. In Mexico, about 25 percent of exports come from natural resources. That figure is about 60 percent or higher for the rest of the region. In cases of extreme dependence, like Venezuela, that figure is over 90 percent.

But transitioning into a more diversified economy will require a new strategy. For example, support for research and development, better education, and a more qualified labor force that can move into different sectors, including the services sector. This would help Latin America participate in the technological revolution that is under way.

Looking ahead, in your view, what are the remaining challenges facing the region?

The first challenge, as mentioned, is how to diversify, in a good way, out of commodities, so that Latin America is less dependent on the booms and busts of commodity markets.

However, diversifying will take time, and many countries will still be heavily reliant on commodities. Some countries, for example, have the ability to become very important suppliers of agricultural products to a China where private consumption will become a larger share of aggregate demand.

Thus, a second challenge is how to upgrade institutions and regulations—such as autonomous central banks, fiscal rules, sovereign wealth funds, and independent fiscal councils—to help these economies cushion the effects of the boom-and-bust cycle of commodities.

While the region has been able to make a significant dent in poverty, it has been less successful in reducing inequality. And this is the third challenge. Having adequate institutions to continue the fight against poverty and reducing inequality will be key.

• Read the book: https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/economics-contemporary-latin-america
• Latest outlook for Latin America: https://blogs.imf.org/2017/07/25/latest-outlook-for-the-americas-back-on-cruise-control-but-stuck-in-low-gear/

FAO. 5 October 2017. Vegetable oils give a lift to FAO Food Price Index. Wheat and maize quotations dip on expectations of record harvests and stockpiles

Rome - Global food prices rose slightly in September, as firmer prices of vegetable oils and to a lesser extent dairy products offset declining prices for staple cereal grains.

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 178.4 points for the month of September, up 0.8 percent from August and marking a 4.3 percent increase from a year earlier.

The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 4.6 percent, driven primarily by palm oil, although values for soy, rapeseed and sunflower oils also rose.

The FAO Dairy Price Index rose by 2.1 percent from August, driven by butter and cheese prices at a time of supply constraints in Australia, New Zealand and the European Union. Meat prices were broadly unchanged.

The FAO Cereal Price Index declined by 1.0 percent, as maize and wheat quotations fell in step with strong supply and harvest prospects. FAO expects the current growing season to yield record worldwide cereals output.

The FAO Sugar Price Index was unchanged for the month, but it was about 33 percent below its year-ago level - a decline due to oversupply in world markets and a slowdown in demand. 

Cereal inventories head for a new high

FAO updated its global cereal production forecast for 2017, raised to 2 612 million tonnes, or almost 7 million tonnes above the record set in 2016, according to the Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, also released today.

September's forecasts were raised on account of robust wheat production trends in the EU and the Russian Federation and expected maize outputs in China and the United States of America.

FAO now forecasts 750.1 million tonnes of wheat to be harvested in 2017 and 1 361 million tonnes of coarse grains, as well as 500.7 million tonnes of rice, slightly down from the previous forecast but close to last year's record output.

FAO forecasts world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2018 to reach a new all-time high of 720.5 million tonnes. That would take the stocks-to-use ratio of cereals - an indicator of the likely price direction - to 27 percent, well above the historical low of 20 percent registered exactly a decade ago. 

The ratio is even higher - 34.6 percent - for wheat due to significant inventory build-ups in China and Russia.

World trade in cereals is expected to rise slightly over the marketing year to reach 403 million tonnes, a new record, led by much larger maize imports by China, the EU and the Islamic Republic of Iran. While Russia is set to consolidate its role as the world's largest wheat exporter, Argentina and Brazil are expected to be the main beneficiaries of the projected expansion in world trade in coarse grains.

FAO Food Price Index

The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices, weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for 2002-2004. For more detailed information (in all languages) please see the special feature article of the November 2013 issue of the Food Outlook. An expanded version of the article, which contains more technical background is available in English only. Monthly release dates for 2017: 12 January, 02 February, 02 March, 06 April, 04 May, 08 June, 06 July, 03 August, 07 September, 05 October, 02 November, 07 December.

FAO Food Price Index mildly up in September

• The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 178.4 points in September 2017, up 1.4 points (0.8 percent) from August and 7.4 points (4.3 percent) above September 2016. Firmer prices in the vegetable oil and dairy sectors were behind the small month-on-month rise in the value of the FFPI.
• The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 152.2 points in September, down 1.6 points (1.0 percent) from August. While the Index declined for the second consecutive month, it remained 8 percent above the corresponding month last year. Maize prices fell in September, reacting to ample supplies in South America and harvest pressure in the northern hemisphere. Wheat values were also weaker, with continued upgrading of this year’s harvest in the Russian Federation a major factor. By contrast, seasonally tight availabilities of fragrant rice and firm demand for higher quality Indica supplies kept international rice prices firm over the month.
• The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 171.9 points in September, compared to 164.4 in August – rising for the second consecutive month and marking a 7-month high. The gain was primarily driven by palm oil, prices of which strengthened amid lower than anticipated production in Southeast Asia and firm import demand fuelled by low inventory levels in main importing countries. International soy oil prices also rose, mainly reflecting concerns about a slow start in plantings in South America, though the price increases were capped by larger than expected harvest estimates in the United States. Continued firmness in rapeseed and sunflower oil values also contributed to the rise in the index.
• The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 224.2 points in September, up 4.5 points (2.1 percent) from the previous month. At this level, the index was 27.4 percent higher than the corresponding period last year, but still 18.6 percent below its peak reached in February 2014. The increase in September reflects continued supply constraints in Australia, New Zealand and the European Union, with growth in the United States remaining timid. Butter and cheese remain the dairy products in highest demand, especially in Asia. Meanwhile, international prices of Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) and Whole Milk Powder (WMP) fell due to limited buying interests.
• The FAO Meat Price Index* averaged 173.2 points in September, unchanged from August but up 9.5 points (5.8 percent) compared to the same period last year. In September, a rise in the international prices of ovine meat countered a decline in pig meat quotations, while those of bovine and poultry meat remained largely unchanged. In the case of ovine meat, prices rose, buoyed by strong import demand, especially from the Middle East and South East Asia, coupled with continued overall supply constraints in Oceania. By contrast, pigmeat prices fell slightly, responding to improved supplies from Brazil. Poultry and bovine meat markets remained well supplied, keeping prices stable.
• The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 204.2 points in September, nearly unchanged from August but as much as 101 points (33 percent) below the same period last year.  The rapid decline in sugar quotations since the beginning of this year reflects a continuing oversupply situation prevailing in world markets, in parallel with the slow-down in demand.

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ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA

PETROBRÁS. 05.Out.2017. Decisão da ANP sobre conteúdo local em Libra

Como operadora do Consórcio Libra, fomos comunicados pela Agência Nacional de Petróleo, Gás Natural e Bicombustíveis (ANP) da decisão da reguladora sobre o pedido do consórcio de isenção de cumprimento de percentuais de conteúdo local. Solicitação feita para os itens e subitens relativos ao subsistema da plataforma do projeto Piloto de Libra.

O pedido do consórcio se fundamentou no Contrato de Partilha da Produção, que prevê cláusula de preço excessivo, além da inexistência de fornecedor capaz de atender as exigências de conteúdo local e dentro dos prazos desejados.

A decisão da ANP isenta o consórcio do cumprimento dos índices de conteúdo local para todos os itens do casco e parcialmente das plantas (exceto itens de engenharia básica e de detalhamento), além de ajustar os compromissos mínimos de alguns itens de construção de plantas, instalação e integração de módulos.

Consideramos que a flexibilização da exigência do conteúdo local é um sinal positivo para a competitividade da indústria de óleo e gás no Brasil e analisaremos junto aos nossos parceiros no consórcio o impacto dos ajustes efetuados.

ANP. PETROBRÁS. PORTAL G1. 05/10/2017. Indústria naval deve recorrer de decisão da ANP que libera Petrobras para construir casco de Libra no exterior. Agência reguladora flexibilizou regras de conteúdo local para o projeto de Libra, maior reserva do pré-sal; Petrobras alega que, com conteúdo nacional, projeto fica 40% mais caro.
Por Daniel Silveira, G1 Rio

A indústria naval brasileira saiu prejudicada com a decisão da Agência Nacional de Petróleo, Gás e Biocombustíveis (ANP) que flexibilizou as regras de conteúdo local para o projeto de Libra e vai tentar reverter a decisão. Foi o que afirmou nesta quinta-feira (5) o vice-presidente do Sindicato Nacional da Indústria da Construção e Reparação Naval e Offshore (Sinaval), Sérgio Bacci, que promete recorrer da decisão.
A decisão da ANP, divulgada na quarta-feira (4), isentou o Consórcio de Libra, operado pela Petrobras, a contratar inteiramente no exterior a construção de casco de uma plataforma do tipo FPSO para operar em Libra, considerada a maior reserva de pré-sal do mundo.
“Os estaleiros sobrevivem de fazer casco de navio. Ou seja, com a decisão a Petrobras não precisará fazer casco aqui no Brasil. Do ponto de vista da indústria naval, foi um desastre total [esta decisão]. Ela [a indústria naval] tinha capacidade de construir os cascos aqui no país”, afirmou Bacci ao G1.
O vice-presidente do Sinaval afirmou que “nenhum estaleiro foi consultado para saber se dava conta de fazer o casco”. Por isso, a entidade solicitou à ANP a documentação apresentada pelo Consórcio de Libra para saber qual foi a base de sustentação da agência reguladora ao deferir o pedido.
“Queremos uma manifestação da área técnica para saber o que levaram em consideração. Estamos cobrando insistentemente desde ontem [quarta-feira] da ANP essa documentação para saber o que subsidiou a decisão. Em cima dessa documentação, vamos ver as medidas administrativas e judiciais que podemos tomar para que a indústria naval possa ser preservada com esse projeto de Libra”, destacou.
A Petrobras havia apresentado pedido de isenção [waiver, no jargão do setor] total do cumprimento das regras de conteúdo local para o projeto de Libra. A ANP atendeu parcialmente o pedido. Para alguns itens, a agência reguladora alterou os percentuais exigidos, para outros o negou completamente, e para o item que trata da construção do casco da plataforma concedeu a isenção total.
Para o vice-presidente do Sinaval, “não é uma decisão técnica, é uma decisão política”. Isso porque, segundo ele, a decisão teve o objetivo de beneficiar o consórcio em detrimento da indústria nacional.
“O papel do órgão regulador deveria ser de mediar as partes. O problema é que aqui no Brasil a agência reguladora toma partido. O caso de Libra é claro em relação a isso”, afirmou Bacci.
Em nota, a Petrobras disse considerar que a decisão da ANP é "sinal positivo para a competitividade da indústria de óleo e gás no Brasil". Afirmou ainda, no mesmo comunicado, que "analisará junto aos seus parceiros...o impacto dos ajustes efetuados".
Custo mais caro no Brasil
Em audiência pública realizada em abril deste ano para discutir a flexibilização das regras de conteúdo local para o projeto de Libra, a Petrobras alegou que o cumprimento integral da exigência encareceria o projeto de libra em 40%.
Questionado se, de fato, os preços praticados pela indústria naval brasileira são mais caros que a concorrência estrangeira, o vice-presidente do Sinaval admitiu que sim, mas atribui a diferença dos valores ao chamado “custo-Brasil”.
“Eu estive na Petrobras e pedi a eles para me mostrarem [porque ficava 40% mais caro]. Um dos itens que eles consideram é a multa, porque sabe que vai fazer na China mais barato. Sem contar todos os impostos, tanto do ponto de vista trabalhista como outros impostos. Então, você tem um custo-Brasil que é algo estratosférico”, destacou.

ANP. PETROBRÁS. PORTAL G1. 05/10/2017. Petrobras vê como positiva flexibilização de conteúdo local em reserva do pré-sal. Na véspera, ANP flexibilizou as exigências para a construção do subsitema UEP do projeto Piloto de Libra, uma das maiores reservas de pré-sal brasileiro.

A Petrobras disse considerar a flexibilização da exigência do conteúdo local na plataforma do projeto Piloto de Libra um "sinal positivo para a competitividade da indústria de óleo e gás no Brasil", segundo comunicado divulgado ao mercado nesta quinta-feira (5).
Como operadora do Consórcio Libra, a estatal afirmou ainda, em nota, que "analisará junto aos seus parceiros...o impacto dos ajustes efetuados".
A exigência de conteúdo local é uma política do governo para tentar ampliar a participação da indústria nacional no setor, com um percentual mínimo estabelecido por lei.
Decisão da ANP
Nesta quarta-feira, a Agência Nacional de Petróleo, Gás e Biocombustíveis (ANP) flexibilizou as exigências de conteúdo local mínima do contrato para a construção subsitema UEP do projeto Piloto de Libra, uma das maiores reservas de pré-sal brasileiro.
Segundo a ANP, a diretoria do órgão negou o pedido de isenção para os itens Engenharia Básica e Engenharia de Detalhamento, bem como de extensão dos efeitos da isenção concedida no conteúdo local global.
Além disso, a agência manteve a exigência de compromissos mínimos de conteúdo local para alguns itens da execução de plantas, instalação e integração de módulos e ancoragem.
Pedido da Petrobras
O pedido de isenção do conteúdo local mínimo imposto por lei foi feito pela Petrobras, operadora do consórcio, para a construção de uma plataforma do tipo FPSO. A estatal alegava que as regras encareciam o projeto em 40%.
O pedido foi alvo de consulta pública, iniciada em 9 de fevereiro pelo prazo de 30 dias e posteriormente prorrogada por mais 15. Para o processo de consulta, a agência apresentou 45 itens e subitens compõem o sistema FPSO. Segundo a ANP, 27 entidades se manifestaram durante o período de consulta.
Além do encarecimento no preço de execução do projeto, o Consórcio de Libra alegou, segundo a ANP, a inexistência de fornecedor capaz de atender os compromissos de conteúdo local do projeto, bem como a incapacidade dos fornecedores locais em cumprirem o cronograma de extração do primeiro óleo até 2020.
A ANP destacou que a decisão da diretoria acerca do pedido já foi comunicada ao Operador do Consórcio Libra e que deve ser submetida à apreciação judicial, conforme determinação do Tribunal Regional Federal da Primeira Região na Ação Declaratória de Nulidade proposta pelo Sindicato Nacional da Indústria de Construção Naval (Sinaval).

BROOKFIELD. 5 DE OUTUBRO DE 2017. Brookfield desiste de fazer oferta maior por Renova Energia, diz fonte
Por Guillermo Parra-Bernal

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - A Brookfield Asset Management desistiu de melhorar uma oferta inicial pela Renova Energia, empresa de energia renovável controlada por Cemig e Light, após uma due diligence mostrar problemas não contabilizados, afirmou uma pessoa com conhecimento direto da situação nesta quinta-feira.

A Brookfield agora caminha para apresentar uma oferta para Cemig e sua controlada Light avaliando os 67 por cento de participação de controle das companhias na Renova em 9 reais por Unit da empresa, disse a fonte, que pediu anonimato porque a negociação permanece privada.

Uma rodada final de due diligence na Renova mostrou que um projeto apresentou um déficit que não havia sido contabilizado anteriormente, afirmou a fonte, sem dar detalhes e sem abrir o nome do empreendimento.

A Brookfield pode pagar à Cemig e Light 7 reais por Unit logo no fechamento do negócio, com o restante sendo desembolsado após a conclusão do projeto eólico Alto Sertão III, cujas obras estão em fase final, disse a fonte.

Um porta-voz da unidade brasileira da Brookfield recusou-se a comentar o assunto.

A Reuters informou na sexta-feira passada que a Brookfield estava considerando oferecer até 11,75 reais por Unit da Renova para facilitar um acordo. Cada Unit da Renova representa uma ação ordinária e duas preferenciais.

Além do problema verificado na análise de dados da Renova, a situação financeira precária da Cemig também desempenha um papel na decisão de Brookfield, disse a fonte.

A Cemig, a empresa elétrica mais endividada do Brasil, tem lutado para vender ativos este ano e enfrenta 9 bilhões de reais em vencimentos de dívidas até o final de 2018.

As Units da Renova caíram mais de 1 por cento para 9,25 reais nesta quinta-feira, após cinco sessões consecutivas de ganhos. A especulação de um acordo iminente com Brookfield levou as Units a subirem 29 por cento ao longo do último mês.

A oferta ainda não foi enviada formalmente à Cemig, Light e Renova, disse a fonte, observando que ela poderia ser submetida “dentro de alguns dias”.

A obtenção do assentimento da Cemig e da Light permitiria que a Brookfield, com sede em Canadá, assumisse o controle da Renova de forma mais assertiva e se expandisse de forma mais rápida no setor de energia renovável do Brasil.

BACEN. PORTAL G1. 05/10/2017. Depósitos da poupança superam saques em R$ 3,65 bilhões em setembro. Dados foram divulgados pelo Banco Central nesta quinta. Foi o quinto mês seguido de saldo positivo na poupança e o maior ingresso de recursos para o mês desde 2013.
Por Laís Lis, G1, Brasília

Os depósitos na caderneta de poupança superaram os saques em R$ 3,65 bilhões em setembro, informou o Banco Central nesta quinta-feira (5).
Foi o quinto mês seguido de saldo positivo da caderneta de poupança. Além disso, foi o maior ingresso de recursos para o mês desde 2013, ou seja, em quatro anos.

• No mês passado os depósitos somaram R$ 172,6 bilhões;
• Já os saques somaram R$ 168,95 bilhões;
• Os rendimentos (juros) creditados nas contas dos poupadores somaram R$ 3,36 bilhões.

No acumulado de janeiro a setembro, informou o BC, os saques da poupança superaram os depósitos em R$ 4,16 bilhões.
Em todo o ano passado, R$ 40,7 bilhões foram retirados da poupança - segundo pior resultado da série histórica, que começou em 1995.
A alta dos depósitos na poupança é reflexo da forte queda da inflação nos últimos meses, que permitiu que as cadernetas voltassem a ter rendimento real (acima da inflação). Entretanto, a redução dos juros básicos da economica, a Selic, já tem reduzido os ganhos dos poupadores. (veja mais abaixo neste texto)
Saldo aumenta
Com a entrada líquida de recursos na poupança, no final de setembro o estoque dos valores depositados, ou seja, o volume total aplicado, registrou aumento.
No fim de dezembro de 2016, o saldo da poupança estava em R$ 664,9 bilhões. Ao fim de agosto de 2017, somava R$ 686,99 bilhões. Já no final de setembro, ficou em R$ 694 bilhões.
Além dos depósitos e das retiradas, os rendimentos (juros) creditados nas contas dos poupadores também são contabilizados no estoque da poupança.
Poupança rendendo menos
Desde o dia 7 de setembro, o rendimento da poupança caiu devido ao corte na Selic, os juros básicos da economia, pelo Banco Central. A taxa vem sendo reduzida desde o ano passado e, na última reunião do Copom, chegou a 8,25% ao ano.
A regra prevê um corte nos rendimentos da poupança quando a Selic ca abaixo de 8,5%. Nessa situação, a correção anual das cadernetas fica limitada a um percentual equivalente a 70% da Selic, mais a Taxa Referencial, calculada pelo BC. A norma vale apenas depósitos feitos a partir de 4 de maio de 2012.

BACEN. REUTERS. 5 DE OUTUBRO DE 2017. Poupança tem entrada líquida de R$3,653 bi em setembro, 5º mês seguido no azul, diz BC

BRASÍLIA (Reuters) - A caderneta de poupança registrou entrada líquida de R$3,653 bilhões de reais em setembro, divulgou o Banco Central nesta quinta-feira, quinto desempenho mensal positivo consecutivo.

O resultado foi o melhor para o mês desde 2013, quando o ingresso foi de R$6,696 bilhões de reais.

Em setembro, os depósitos superaram os saques em R$3,165 bilhões de reais no Sistema Brasileiro de Poupança e Empréstimo (SBPE), enquanto na poupança rural houve entrada de 487,8 milhões de reais.

No acumulado dos nove primeiros meses do ano, no entanto, a poupança ainda acumula saldo negativo de R$4,158 bilhões de reais.

Por Mateus Maia

ANFAVEA. PORTAL G1. 05/10/2017. Produção de veículos sobe 39% em setembro, diz Anfavea. No acumulado do ano, de janeiro a setembro, o crescimento é de 27%. Exportações atingem novo patamar recorde no ano.
Por Luciana de Oliveira, G1, São Paulo

A produção de veículos no Brasil subiu 39,1% em setembro, na comparação com o mesmo período do ano passado, afirmou nesta quinta-feira (5) a associação das montadoras (Anfavea).
Foram produzidas 236.994 unidades de carros, comerciais leves (picapes e furgões), caminhões e ônibus no mês passado, enquanto em setembro de 2016 a indústria alcançou 170.304 unidades.
No acumulado do ano, de janeiro a setembro, o crescimento é de 27%, com 1.986.654 veículos, contra 1.564.485 unidades no mesmo período do ano passado.

Produção de veículos no Brasil

Em 1 ano

ago
● : 260.914

Fonte: Anfavea

As exportações seguem puxando a recuperação do setor, com 60 mil unidades enviadas para fora do país em setembro - um avanço de 52% sobre o número registrado no mesmo mês de 2016.
No ano, as exportações cresceram 55,7% e bateram recorde histórico, com 566 mil unidades. Até então, o melhor resultado era de 2005, com 547 mil.
Vendas no Brasil
A comercialização de veículos novos no país também mostrou uma retomada. Os emplacamentos de carros, comerciais leves, caminhões e ônibus novos cresceram 24,5% sobre o mesmo mês de 2016 e acumulam alta de 7,4% no ano.
No entanto, o número pode não se repetir nos próximos meses, porque a base de comparação era muito baixa, segundo Rogelio Golfarb, vice-presidente da Anfavea.
"É prematuro usar o número de setembro e entender que ele é sustentável, nessa magnitude, até o final do ano."
Empregos mantidos
O nível de emprego nas montadoras se estabilizou na comparação com agosto, somando 126.280 funcionários diretos, o que representa leve alta de 1,3% sobre os empregados em setembro do ano passado (incluindo as empresas de máquinas agrícolas).
O volume de contratos suspensos (lay-off) ou no programa que reduz a jornada e os salários (PSE) diminuiu levemente de agosto para setembro, com um total 5.831, sendo 2.964 pessoas em lay-off e 2.867 no PSE. Em julho, 12.198 trabalhadores estavam nestes programas.
Previsões para 2017
Em agosto, a Anfavea revisou para cima as projeções para o ano. De acordo com a entidade, o setor deve fechar 2017 com alta de 25,2% na produção, 7,3% nas vendas e 43% nas exportações.
As expectativas são um pouco diferentes das reveladas pela federação dos concessionários, a Fenabrave, na última terça (3). Os distribuidores agora esperam alta de 9,6% nas vendas de automóveis, comerciais leves, caminhões e ônibus.

CARTA DA ANFAVEA: http://www.anfavea.com.br/cartas/carta377.pdf

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LGCJ.: