US ECONOMICS
FED. March 01, 2017. Beige Book. Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District
Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis.
National Summary
This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York based on information collected on or before February 17, 2017. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
Overall Economic Activity
Reports from all twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that the economy expanded at a modest to moderate pace from early January through mid-February. Consumer spending expanded modestly since the last report. Retail sales increased at a subdued pace across most of the nation, with a number of Districts noting an ongoing shift from in-store to internet purchasing. Auto sales varied widely, but were said to be up in most Districts. Tourism activity was mixed but mostly stronger. Manufacturing activity accelerated somewhat, with most Districts characterizing the pace of growth as moderate. The energy sector showed modest growth in early 2017, and transportation activity was steady to somewhat higher across the nation. Home construction and sales continued to expand modestly in most Districts, while residential rental markets were mixed. Home prices were steady to up modestly in most Districts, and a number of Districts noted low inventories of existing homes. Commercial real estate construction grew modestly, and sales and leasing activity grew moderately. Lending activity was steady to somewhat higher. Businesses were generally optimistic about the near-term outlook but to a somewhat lesser degree than in the prior report.
Employment and Wages
Labor markets remained tight in early 2017, with some Districts noting widening labor shortages. Employment grew moderately in most of the nation, though three Districts characterized growth as modest and two reported that it was little changed. A number of Districts noted that staffing firms were seeing brisk business for this time of year, and one noted more conversions from temporary to permanent workers. In general, wages in most Districts rose modestly or moderately, with a few reporting some pickup in the pace of wage growth. A number of Districts noted that shortages of skilled workers--particularly engineers and IT workers--were driving up their wages, and there were also some reports of labor shortages in the leisure and hospitality, construction and manufacturing industries.
Prices
Pricing pressures were little changed from the prior report. Most Districts reported that selling prices were up modestly or moderately, though four indicated that prices had largely leveled off. Input prices were up modestly, on balance. Energy prices and farm prices were mixed but mostly steady, on balance, while prices for construction materials climbed in a number of Districts. Overall, businesses said they expected both input prices and selling prices to increase modestly in the months ahead.
Highlights by Federal Reserve District
Boston
Business contacts in most sectors reported modest to moderate year-over-year increases in activity in recent weeks. Staffing firms, by contrast, cited modest declines in revenues. Some respondents expressed concern about policy changes in the new administration and associated uncertainty. Most contacts nevertheless cited a positive outlook.
New York
Economic activity has accelerated to a modest pace. Labor markets have strengthened, hiring has picked up, and wages continued to rise modestly. Input cost increases have become more widespread, and selling prices have accelerated somewhat. Housing markets have continued to weaken at the high end, while commercial real estate markets have picked up.
Philadelphia
Overall, economic activity continued to rise modestly with pickups to growth emerging from manufacturers and homebuilders. However, activity was essentially flat in several other sectors. Many contacts remained cautiously optimistic even as their uncertainty increased. In general, employment, wages, and prices continued to rise at a modest pace.
Cleveland
Economic activity, which had picked up some after the election, continued to rise at steady pace into February. The expansion was attributed to rising consumer and business confidence, although this confidence is only reflected in a limited increase in business spending. Retaining high-skilled workers is increasingly difficult. Product pricing pressures diminished slightly.
Richmond
Economic activity grew moderately since the previous Beige Book. Manufacturers reported increased shipments, along with stronger growth in new orders and greater capacity utilization. Additionally, record volumes of container traffic passed through the ports in recent weeks. Commercial leasing increased, particularly for industrial and retail space. In commercial construction, multi-family and mixed use development dominated.
Atlanta
Economic activity expanded modestly. The labor market remained tight. Overall, wages and non-labor cost pressures were subdued. Retailers cited flat sales, while auto sales increased. Home prices increased modestly. Demand for commercial real estate continued to improve. Manufacturers noted an increase in new orders and production.
Chicago
Growth picked up to a moderate pace. Employment, wages, business spending, and manufacturing production all grew at moderate rates, consumer spending increased modestly, and construction and real estate activity rose slightly. Financial conditions were little changed, prices increased modestly, and farm incomes improved slightly.
St. Louis
Economic conditions have continued to expand at a modest pace. Manufacturing contacts reported an uptick in activity in the first quarter, while auto dealers reported a slight decline in sales. The general outlook for 2017 among business contacts remained optimistic, even improving slightly since mid-November.
Minneapolis
Economic activity grew modestly. Employment rose, but certain retail sectors saw significant closures and layoffs. Activity in North Dakota slowed, though activity in the Bakken was improving. Winter tourism conditions were spotty. Manufacturing activity and outlook improved. Commercial construction slowed, but residential construction had a strong January. Home sales were mixed across metro regions.
Kansas City
Economic activity continued to expand modestly, and contacts in most sectors expected additional gains in the months ahead. Retailers and auto dealers anticipated a pickup in sales in the next few months, and manufacturers' expectations for future activity were at their highest levels in over twelve years. The energy sector continued to expand, but the agriculture sector remained weak.
Dallas
Economic activity grew moderately, and outlooks remained optimistic. The energy sector noted improved demand and signs of a pickup in hiring. Manufacturing and service-sector activity continued to expand, although there was increased uncertainty surrounding the new administration's policy changes. Loan activity increased and housing demand remained solid.
San Francisco
Economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace. Sales of retail goods picked up, and activity in the consumer and business services sector slowed slightly to a moderate pace. Manufacturing conditions remained mixed, and activity in the agriculture sector was largely unchanged. Activity in the housing market was unchanged from the prior period, but remained strong.
FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/files/Beigebook_20170301.pdf
BEA. March 1, 2017. PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS, JANUARY 2017
Personal income increased $63.0 billion (0.4 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $40.1 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $22.2 billion (0.2 percent).
Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in January and Real PCE decreased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.
2016 2017
Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3
Chained (2009) dollars 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2
Chained (2009) dollars 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.3
Price indexes:
PCE 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4
PCE, excluding food and energy 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
PCE 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.9
PCE, excluding food and energy 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7
The increase in personal income in January primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries and personal current transfer receipts that were partially offset by an increase in contributions for government social insurance, a subtraction in the calculation of personal income (table 3).
The decrease in real PCE in January primarily reflected decreases in spending for services, notably
utilities, and durable goods (table 7).
Personal outlays increased $24.0 billion in January (table 3). Personal saving was $795.7 billion in January and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 5.5 percent (table 1).
2016 Personal Income and Outlays
Personal income (table 6) increased 3.6 percent in 2016 (that is, from the 2015 annual level to the 2016 annual level), compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in 2015. DPI increased 3.9 percent in 2016, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent in 2015. In 2016, PCE increased 3.8 percent, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent in 2015.
Real DPI increased 2.8 percent in 2016, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent in 2015. Real PCE (table 8) increased 2.7 percent, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent.
Annual estimates of personal income and disposable personal income were revised up 0.1 percentage point from the estimates presented last month; annual estimates of personal consumption expenditures were unrevised.
Updates
Estimates have been updated for July through December. The percent change from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar DPI and PCE -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.
Change from preceding month
November December
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars 9.2 27.9 0.1 0.2 50.2 47.5 0.3 0.3
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 9.3 26.5 0.1 0.2 43.6 42.0 0.3 0.3
Chained (2009) dollars 1.7 16.6 0.0 0.1 19.0 16.2 0.1 0.1
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars 28.8 32.1 0.2 0.2 63.1 65.0 0.5 0.5
Chained (2009) dollars 19.8 22.3 0.2 0.2 38.2 38.7 0.3 0.3
FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2017/pdf/pi0117.pdf
DoL. BLS. February 28, 2017. Regional and State Unemployment, 2016 Annual Average Summary. REGIONAL AND STATE UNEMPLOYMENT -- 2016 ANNUAL AVERAGES
Annual average unemployment rates decreased in 38 states and the District of
Columbia, increased in 9 states, and were unchanged in 3 states in 2016, the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment-population ratios
increased in 36 states and the District, decreased in 12 states, and were
unchanged in 2 states. The U.S. jobless rate declined by 0.4 percentage point
from the prior year to 4.9 percent, and the national employment-population ratio
rose by 0.4 point to 59.7 percent.
Regional Unemployment
All four regions had statistically significant unemployment rate decreases from
2015: the West (-0.6 percentage point), Northeast (-0.5 point), South (-0.4 point),
and Midwest (-0.1 point). The Midwest, at 4.7 percent, had the only jobless rate
significantly lower than that of the U.S. in 2016, while the West, at 5.1 percent,
had the only rate significantly above the national figure. (See table 1.)
Six of the 9 geographic divisions had statistically significant over-the-year
unemployment rate changes in 2016, all of which were declines. The largest of these
occurred in New England (-0.8 percentage point) and the Pacific and South Atlantic
(-0.7 point each). The West North Central had the lowest jobless rate among the
divisions, 3.9 percent. New England, at 4.1 percent, and the Mountain division, at
4.6 percent, also had rates significantly below the U.S. average. The East South
Central and Pacific, at 5.3 percent each, had unemployment rates that were measurably
higher than that of the U.S.
State Unemployment
Twenty-seven states and the District of Columbia had statistically significant
unemployment rate decreases in 2016. The largest declines occurred in Massachusetts
and South Carolina (-1.2 percentage points each), closely followed by Arkansas and
Nevada (-1.1 points each). Three states had significant over-the-year rate increases:
Wyoming (+1.1 percentage points), Oklahoma (+0.5 point), and North Dakota (+0.4 point).
The remaining 20 states had annual average jobless rates in 2016 that were not
appreciably different from those of the previous year, though some had changes that
were at least as large numerically as the significant changes. (See table A.)
New Hampshire and South Dakota had the lowest unemployment rates, 2.8 percent each
in 2016. New Mexico and Alaska had the highest jobless rates, 6.7 percent and 6.6
percent, respectively. Overall, 19 states had unemployment rates that were
significantly lower than the U.S. figure of 4.9 percent, while 12 states and the
District of Columbia had rates measurably above it. Arkansas had the lowest unemployment
rate in its series in 2016, 4.0 percent, while Oregon matched its series low of 4.9
percent, last recorded in 1995. (All region, division, and state series begin in 1976. See
table B.)
Regional Employment-Population Ratios
In 2016, three regions had statistically significant changes in their employment-
population ratios--the proportion of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years
of age and over who are employed--all of which were increases. These occurred in the
West (+0.5 percentage point) and the Midwest and South (+0.4 point each). The Midwest
had the highest ratio, 62.2 percent, while the South, at 58.3 percent, had the lowest.
These two regions had the only ratios that were significantly different from the
national figure of 59.7 percent. (See table 2.)
Among the nine geographic divisions, all of the significant changes in employment-
population ratios from 2015 to 2016 were increases: the East South Central (+0.7
percentage point) and the East North Central, Pacific, and South Atlantic (+0.6
point each). The division with the highest employment-population ratio in 2016 was
the West North Central, at 65.4 percent, followed by New England, at 62.7 percent.
These two divisions, along with the East North Central and Mountain, at 60.8 percent
and 60.5 percent, respectively, had employment-population ratios measurably above
that of the U.S. The East South Central had the lowest proportion of employed persons,
55.0 percent. The ratios in the South Atlantic (58.6 percent), Middle Atlantic
(59.0 percent), and Pacific (59.2 percent) also were appreciably below the national
average.
State Employment-Population Ratios
In 2016, the largest employment-population ratio increases among the states occurred
in Oregon (+1.5 percentage points) and Georgia (+1.1 points). Twelve other states also
had statistically significant increases in their ratios. Three states had significant
over-the-year decreases in their employment-population ratios: Louisiana and Wyoming
(-1.2 percentage points each) and Nebraska (-0.4 point). (See table C.)
North Dakota had the highest proportion of employed persons, 69.2 percent in 2016.
Four other states in the West North Central division had the next highest ratios:
Nebraska, 67.3 percent; Iowa and South Dakota, 67.0 percent each; and Minnesota, 66.8
percent. West Virginia had the lowest employment-population ratio among the states,
50.0 percent. (West Virginia has had the lowest employment-population ratio each year
since the series began in 1976.) Overall, 24 states and the District of Columbia had
employment-population ratios that were significantly above the U.S. ratio of 59.7
percent and 16 states had ratios that were appreciably below it. Alaska and New
Mexico, at 61.7 percent and 53.7 percent, respectively, had the lowest employment-
population ratios in their series in 2016. (See table D.)
_____________
The State Employment and Unemployment news release for January 2017 is scheduled
to be released on Monday, March 13, 2017, at 10:00 a.m. (EDT). The Metropolitan
Area Employment and Unemployment news release for January 2017 is scheduled to be
released on Friday, March 17, 2017, at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).
Table A. States with statistically significant unemployment rate changes,
2015-16 annual averages
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Rate |
|-------------------------| Over-the-year
State | | | rate change
| 2015 | 2016 |
--------------------------------|------------|------------|---------------
Arizona ........................| 6.0 | 5.3 | -0.7
Arkansas .......................| 5.1 | 4.0 | -1.1
California .....................| 6.2 | 5.4 | -.8
Colorado .......................| 3.9 | 3.3 | -.6
Connecticut ....................| 5.7 | 5.1 | -.6
District of Columbia ...........| 6.9 | 6.0 | -.9
Florida ........................| 5.4 | 4.9 | -.5
Georgia ........................| 6.0 | 5.4 | -.6
Hawaii .........................| 3.6 | 3.0 | -.6
Idaho ..........................| 4.2 | 3.8 | -.4
| | |
Maine ..........................| 4.4 | 3.9 | -.5
Maryland .......................| 5.1 | 4.3 | -.8
Massachusetts ..................| 4.9 | 3.7 | -1.2
Michigan .......................| 5.4 | 4.9 | -.5
Mississippi ....................| 6.4 | 5.8 | -.6
Missouri .......................| 5.0 | 4.5 | -.5
Nevada .........................| 6.8 | 5.7 | -1.1
New Hampshire ..................| 3.4 | 2.8 | -.6
New Jersey .....................| 5.8 | 5.0 | -.8
New York .......................| 5.3 | 4.8 | -.5
| | |
North Carolina .................| 5.8 | 5.1 | -.7
North Dakota ...................| 2.8 | 3.2 | .4
Oklahoma .......................| 4.4 | 4.9 | .5
Oregon .........................| 5.6 | 4.9 | -.7
Rhode Island ...................| 6.0 | 5.3 | -.7
South Carolina .................| 6.0 | 4.8 | -1.2
Tennessee ......................| 5.6 | 4.8 | -.8
Vermont ........................| 3.6 | 3.3 | -.3
Virginia .......................| 4.5 | 4.0 | -.5
West Virginia ..................| 6.8 | 6.0 | -.8
Wyoming ........................| 4.2 | 5.3 | 1.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table B. States with unemployment rates significantly differ-
ent from that of the U.S., 2016 annual averages
--------------------------------------------------------------
State | Rate
--------------------------------------------------------------
United States .......................| 4.9
|
Alabama .............................| 6.0
Alaska ..............................| 6.6
Arkansas ............................| 4.0
California ..........................| 5.4
Colorado ............................| 3.3
District of Columbia ................| 6.0
Georgia .............................| 5.4
Hawaii ..............................| 3.0
Idaho ...............................| 3.8
Illinois ............................| 5.9
|
Iowa ................................| 3.7
Kansas ..............................| 4.2
Louisiana ...........................| 6.1
Maine ...............................| 3.9
Maryland ............................| 4.3
Massachusetts .......................| 3.7
Minnesota ...........................| 3.9
Mississippi .........................| 5.8
Montana .............................| 4.1
Nebraska ............................| 3.2
|
Nevada ..............................| 5.7
New Hampshire .......................| 2.8
New Mexico ..........................| 6.7
North Dakota ........................| 3.2
Pennsylvania ........................| 5.4
South Dakota ........................| 2.8
Utah ................................| 3.4
Vermont .............................| 3.3
Virginia ............................| 4.0
Washington ..........................| 5.4
West Virginia .......................| 6.0
Wisconsin ...........................| 4.1
--------------------------------------------------------------
Table C. States with statistically significant employment-population
ratio changes, 2015-16 annual averages
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Ratio |
|-------------------------| Over-the-year
State | | | ratio change
| 2015 | 2016 |
--------------------------------|------------|------------|---------------
Arkansas .......................| 55.1 | 55.8 | 0.7
California .....................| 58.3 | 58.9 | .6
Florida ........................| 55.8 | 56.3 | .5
Georgia ........................| 57.9 | 59.0 | 1.1
Hawaii .........................| 59.8 | 60.8 | 1.0
Indiana ........................| 60.8 | 61.8 | 1.0
Louisiana ......................| 56.7 | 55.5 | -1.2
Maryland .......................| 63.5 | 64.2 | .7
Michigan .......................| 57.2 | 58.2 | 1.0
Nebraska .......................| 67.7 | 67.3 | -.4
| | |
New Hampshire ..................| 66.2 | 66.7 | .5
North Carolina .................| 57.7 | 58.7 | 1.0
Oregon .........................| 58.0 | 59.5 | 1.5
South Carolina .................| 55.8 | 56.3 | .5
Tennessee ......................| 56.2 | 57.2 | 1.0
Washington .....................| 59.6 | 60.2 | .6
Wyoming ........................| 64.7 | 63.5 | -1.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table D. States with employment-population ratios significantly
different from that of the U.S., 2016 annual averages
----------------------------------------------------------------
State | Ratio
----------------------------------------------------------------
United States .......................| 59.7
|
Alabama .............................| 53.4
Alaska ..............................| 61.7
Arizona .............................| 57.1
Arkansas ............................| 55.8
California ..........................| 58.9
Colorado ............................| 64.7
Connecticut .........................| 62.6
District of Columbia ................| 65.9
Florida .............................| 56.3
Idaho ...............................| 61.5
|
Illinois ............................| 61.4
Indiana .............................| 61.8
Iowa ................................| 67.0
Kansas ..............................| 64.3
Kentucky ............................| 54.7
Louisiana ...........................| 55.5
Maryland ............................| 64.2
Massachusetts .......................| 62.5
Michigan ............................| 58.2
Minnesota ...........................| 66.8
|
Mississippi .........................| 52.8
Missouri ............................| 62.4
Montana .............................| 61.2
Nebraska ............................| 67.3
New Hampshire .......................| 66.7
New Mexico ..........................| 53.7
New York ............................| 57.7
North Carolina ......................| 58.7
North Dakota ........................| 69.2
Oklahoma ............................| 58.2
|
Rhode Island ........................| 61.0
South Carolina ......................| 56.3
South Dakota ........................| 67.0
Tennessee ...........................| 57.2
Texas ...............................| 60.7
Utah ................................| 66.4
Vermont .............................| 64.8
Virginia ............................| 62.2
West Virginia .......................| 50.0
Wisconsin ...........................| 65.4
Wyoming .............................| 63.5
----------------------------------------------------------------
FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/srgune.pdf
DoC. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur L. Ross, Jr. Addresses Department of Commerce Employees
Thank you, Ellen, for that kind introduction. And thank all of you for joining me today for the beginning of what will be a period of revival across our country and a special renaissance for the Department of Commerce.
Let me first introduce my lovely wife Hilary. She has been incredibly supportive during the whole confirmation process that took some several months – seemed like a couple hundred years.
I am the only Commerce Secretary ever to have been an enumerator before. And in fact before I became an enumerator, while working my way through school, I didn’t know what one was. But now I do.
So I am particularly honored to have been given the opportunity to serve along-side all of you as we work to make America more competitive and to improve the lives of working men and women across this country.
Wasn’t that a great speech from the President last night?
I thought it was one of the most inspiring speeches I’ve ever heard, and I think it augers well for the new administration.
President Trump laid down a challenge we must all meet: to dream big, to renew the American spirit that made this country great, and to pursue a bold agenda that will create opportunity across America.
I have known President Trump for many years, and I have seen first-hand his deep love for this country. Under his leadership, we are going to implement policies that finally put American workers first – a simple idea that has taken a back seat for far too long.
To that end, President Trump has already given us at the Department more responsibility than ever before. If we perform well both at our normal tasks and at our new assignments, I have no doubt that our scope will continue to expand.
To start, we will be more involved with rebalancing a trade system that has gutted American manufacturing and left families across America without work and without hope.
The President has announced that we will play a major role in renegotiating bad trade deals like NAFTA as the Administration seeks to institute a system of both free and fair trade that protects American workers and American companies.
Since the signing of NAFTA, America has lost more than a quarter of its manufacturing jobs and we have run up a trade deficit in goods, globally, that reached 800 billion dollars last year.
But under President Trump’s leadership, we will work to realize the imperative put forth by Benjamin Franklin that is enshrined on the side of this particular building.
The inscription reads, quote, “commerce among nations must be fair and equitable.”
Those are wise words for the 21st century.
President Trump has also said that we will play a key role in his historic effort to relieve the crushing burden of regulation that has shifted American economic growth overseas and made us uncompetitive on the world stage.
For every new regulation the government creates, we will eliminate two old ones.
Charged with being the voice of American business, our Department has the important task of identifying where the burdens on our economy are too great and where our innovators need more latitude in order to unleash their ingenuity.
As impactful as these efforts will be for working families across America, there are many more crucial functions that our Department performs.
Our team of 47,000 devoted staff members cannot neglect the challenges of:
- changed methodology for the 2020 census;
- launching more satellites for NOAA;
- getting FirstNet universally accepted;
- finding and auctioning more spectrum;
- enforcing trade agreements;
- obtaining maximum sustainable yield for our fisheries;
- improving the timeliness, accuracy, breadth and depth of our data output;
- providing the expertise and capital necessary to spur growth and innovation in communities across America;
- setting standards for our increasingly technical society; and
- protecting intellectual property rights.
We must build upon the hard work many of you have done in support of Privacy Shield, and, as we move from Black History Month into Women’s History Month, we must amplify our impact in underserved communities.
One of the first steps in supporting these efforts will be securing adequate appropriations from the Congress. In a period of budgetary constraint, that will be a major challenge.
With that in mind, I was very impressed by the way Ellen has performed as Acting Secretary, and I think we should give her a big hand for stepping into the breach.
I especially strongly support her initiative to improve the quality and value of our H.R. functions. We must accelerate this process and set an example for other departments to follow.
Commerce is already regarded as one of the best places at which to work in the entire federal government. My goal is to overcome NASA as the very best employer.
But that doesn't mean we won't also strive for greater operational efficiency. We must and, with your help and your commitment to excellence, we will.
A few rules of the road are essential.
First, there will be no tolerance for any kind of prejudice or inappropriate behavior of any sort – None!
Second, material in preparation for meetings must be concise. A few pages that are substantive will get you much farther with me than thick binders with lots of repetition, pretty blue pages, and fluff.
Third, if a problem is developing, we will work together to solve it ourselves. I can take bad news if I learn about it from inside our Department and I will stand alongside all of you as we confront whatever challenges may arise.
Similarly, I will be quite open to dissent at meetings, but once the decision has been made, we must act with unanimity, both internally and externally.
As John Hancock famously said, “We must hang together because, if we do not, we shall surely all be hanged separately.”
Finally, I expect people will be on time for meetings. All of us are too busy to waste time on late comers.
Of course, the Senate has kept us all waiting these last few weeks for my confirmation, so now let’s all get to work!
Thank you very much.
FED. REUTERS. 01/03/2017. Autoridades do Fed agitam mercados ao falar sobre alta iminente dos juros
Por Ann Saphir e Jonathan Spicer
SANTA CRUZ, EUA/NOVA YORK (Reuters) - Autoridades do Federal Reserve, banco central dos Estados Unidos, levaram os mercados a ampliar as expectativas de uma alta da taxa de juros em março com declarações sugerindo que estão preocupadas em esperar tempo demais diante do aguardado estímulo econômico de Washington.
O presidente do Fed de Nova York, William Dudley, entre os mais influentes membros do Fed, afirmou na CNN que o momento para apertar a política monetária se tornou "muito mais premente" desde a eleição do presidente norte-americano, Donald Trump.
John Williams, presidente do Fed de San Francisco, afirmou que, com a economia em pleno emprego, a inflação avançando e riscos dos potenciais cortes de impostos, "eu pessoalmente não vejo qualquer necessidade de adiar" a alta dos juros.
"Na minha opinião, um aumento dos juros está na mesa para uma avaliação séria em nossa reunião de março", disse ele.
Em declarações ao Congresso, Trump ofereceu poucos detalhes sobre os planejados cortes de impostos ou gastos com infraestrutura além das pinceladas que deu durante a campanha eleitoral --deixando as autoridades do Fed com pouco a avaliar além de suas análises.
Williams, diferente de Dudley, não tem voto sobre a política monetária este ano, mas as visões dele são consideradas influentes entre seus colegas.
As declarações provocaram vendas nos mercados de títulos, com o rendimento do Treasury de dois anos saltando para o nível mais alto desde dezembro.
Os juros futuros indicavam na terça-feira que os operadores veem quase 57 por cento de chances de o Fed elevar os juros na reunião de 14 e 15 de março, contra cerca de 31 por cento na segunda-feira e 20 por cento há uma semana, segundo dados da Reuters.
PORTAL UOL. 01/03/2017. EUA: inflação anual registra maior nível em 4 anos
AFP
Washington, 1 Mar 2017 (AFP) - A inflação nos Estados Unidos acelerou em janeiro e registrou o maior nível em quase quatro anos, de acordo com o índice PCE publicado nesta quarta-feira pelo Departamento do Comércio.
O índice de preços baseado nos gastos de consumo, medição preferida pelo Federal Reserve (Fed, banco central) para observar a evolução da inflação, registrou alta de 1,9% nos 12 meses concluídos em janeiro, depois de um aumento de 1,6% em dezembro.
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PETROBRÁS. 01/03/2017. Aliança Estratégica com a Total com a assinatura de contratos definitivos
Assinamos nesta terça-feira (28/2) com a Total os contratos de compra e venda relacionados aos ativos da Aliança Estratégica definidos no Acordo Geral de Colaboração (Master Agreement), firmado em 21/12/2016.
Os contratos selam a Aliança Estratégica entre as duas companhias, criando novas parcerias nos segmentos de upstream e downstream, juntamente com o fortalecimento da cooperação tecnológica que abrange as áreas de operação, pesquisa e tecnologia. Essa Aliança Estratégica permite que ambas as empresas combinem suas experiências, reconhecidas mundialmente, em todos os segmentos da cadeia de petróleo e gás natural, no Brasil e exterior.
Os contratos firmados foram:
- Cessão de direitos de 22,5% da Petrobras para a Total, na área da concessão denominada Iara (campos de Sururu, Berbigão e Oeste de Atapu, que estão sujeitos a acordos de unitização com a área denominada Entorno de Iara, sob regime de cessão onerosa, na qual detemos 100% de participação), no Bloco BM-S-11. Continuaremos como operadores e a deter a maior participação nessa área, com 42,5%. A parceria com a Total trará como benefícios a desoneração de investimentos e a incorporação de soluções tecnológicas para o seu desenvolvimento a serem estudadas em conjunto, maximizando a rentabilidade e o volume de óleo a ser recuperado. A BG E&P Brasil – companhia subsidiária da Royal Dutch Shell plc, com 25% e a Petrogal Brasil, com 10%, também fazem parte desse consórcio.
- Cessão de direitos de 35% da Petrobras para a Total, assim como a operação, na área da concessão do campo de Lapa, no Bloco BM-S-9, ficando a Petrobras com 10%. O campo de Lapa encontra-se em fase de produção, tendo iniciado sua operação em dezembro de 2016. A Total, como operadora deste campo, trará benefícios para o consórcio, ao incorporar sua valiosa experiência em projetos de águas profundas para as próximas fases do desenvolvimento desafiador de Lapa, que possui características distintas dos demais campos do pré-sal em operação. A BG E&P Brasil – companhia subsidiária da Royal Dutch Shell plc, com 30% e a RepsolSinopec Brasil, com 25%, também integram esse consórcio.
- Venda de 50% da nossa participação para a Total na Termobahia, incluindo as térmicas Rômulo de Almeida e Celso Furtado, localizadas na Bahia. As duas térmicas estão ligadas ao terminal de regaseificação, localizado em São Francisco do Conde, na Bahia, onde a Total terá acesso à capacidade de regaseificação visando o suprimento de gás para as térmicas. Essa iniciativa constitui-se em uma parceria inovadora no mercado térmico brasileiro.
Os contratos acima se somam a outros acordos já firmados em 21/12/2016, que são: (i) Carta que concede à Petrobras a opção de aquisição de 20% de participação no bloco 2 da área de Perdido Foldbelt, no setor mexicano do Golfo do México, assumindo apenas as obrigações futuras proporcionais à sua participação; (ii) Carta de Intenção para estudos exploratórios conjuntos nas áreas exploratórias da Margem Equatorial, e na Bacia de Santos; e (iii) Acordo de parceria tecnológica nas áreas de petrofísica digital, processamento geológico e sistemas de produção submarinos.
Com as transações firmadas ontem, a Total nos pagará o valor global de US$ 2,225 bilhões, composto de US$ 1,675 bilhão à vista, pelos ativos e serviços, uma linha de crédito que pode ser acionada por nós no valor de US$ 400 milhões, representando parte dos nossos investimentos nos campos da área de Iara, além de pagamentos contingentes no valor de US$ 150 milhões.
Após a assinatura, Pedro Parente e Patrick Pouyanné, presidentes da Petrobras e da Total, declararam: “Estamos entusiasmados com a nossa aliança estratégica se tornando realidade. Essa nova parceria, em conjunto com uma forte cooperação tecnológica, criará sinergias e valor, combinando nossa excelência operacional e reduzindo custos em nossos projetos, em benefício de ambas as companhias”.
As conclusões das operações estão sujeitas às aprovações dos órgãos reguladores competentes e ao potencial exercício do direito de preferência dos atuais parceiros na área de Iara, além de outras condições precedentes.
Parcerias
Para nós, a realização dessa Aliança Estratégica é uma parte importante do Plano de Negócios e Gestão 2017-2021, ao intensificar o compartilhamento de informações, experiências e tecnologias, avançar no fortalecimento da governança corporativa, além de melhorar a nossa financiabilidade, através de mitigação dos riscos, entrada de caixa e desoneração dos investimentos.
Para a Total, as novas parcerias com a Petrobras reforçam sua posição no Brasil, através da sua participação em novos campos da Bacia de Santos e da sua entrada na promissora cadeia de valor do gás natural.
Atualmente, a Petrobras e a Total são parceiras em 19 consórcios de exploração e produção. No Brasil, são parceiras na área de Libra, primeiro contrato pelo regime de partilha de produção, localizada no pré-sal da Bacia de Santos. No exterior, são parceiras no campo de Chinook, no Golfo do México nos EUA, no campo de águas profundas Akpo, na Nigéria, e nos campos de gás de San Alberto e San Antonio/Itau, na Bolívia, além de serem sócias no gasoduto Bolívia-Brasil.
REUTERS. 01/03/2017. Rússia corta produção de petróleo para 11,1 mi bpd em fevereiro, dizem fontes
MOSCOU (Reuters) - A produção russa de petróleo caiu em fevereiro para cerca de 1,515 milhões de toneladas por dia, ou 11,10 milhões de barris por dia (bpd), contra 11,247 milhões de bpd em outubro, disseram à Reuters nesta quarta-feira duas fontes familiarizadas com os dados.
As estatísticas de produção de outubro foram usadas como linha de base para um acordo global para reduzir a produção de petróleo, a fim de suportar preços de petróleo. A Reuters usa a relação tonelada/barris de 7,33.
Em janeiro, a produção russa de petróleo ficou em 11,11 milhões de bpd.
A Rússia prometeu reduzir a produção em 200 mil bpd no primeiro trimestre de 2017 e em 300 mil bpd a partir de abril.
O acordo com a Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo (Opep) e outros produtores liderados pela Rússia, alcançado em dezembro, prevê cortes totais na produção de petróleo de quase 1,8 milhão de bpd e está em vigor até o fim do primeiro semestre deste ano.
(Por Redação de Moscou)
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BACEN. BOLETIM FOCUS: RELATÓRIO SEMANAL DE MERCADO
(Projeções atualizadas semanalmente pelas 100 principais instituições financeiras que operam no Brasil, para os principais indicadores da economia brasileira)
ANÁLISE
BACEN. PORTAL G1. 01/03/2017. Em 8ª queda seguida, mercado baixa estimativa de inflação em 2017 para 4,36%. Expectativa dos analistas de mercado financeiro foi coletada na semana passada e divulgada nesta quarta (1º) pelo Banco Central.
Por Alexandro Martello, G1, Brasília
Os analistas das instituições financeiras reduziram a estimativa de inflação para este ano, com base no Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA), de 4,43% para 4,36%. Foi a oitava redução seguida do indicador.
As expectativas dos analistas do mercado financeiro foram coletadas pelo Banco Central na semana passada e divulgadas nesta quarta-feira (1º) por meio do relatório de mercado, também conhecido como Focus. Mais de cem instituições financeiras foram ouvidas.
Com isso, o mercado financeiro manteve a expectativa de que a inflação em 2017 ficará abaixo da meta central para ano, que é de 4,5%. A meta de inflação é fixada pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN) e deve ser perseguida pelo Banco Central, que para isso eleva ou reduz a taxa de juros (Selic).
A meta central de inflação não é atingida no Brasil desde 2009. Naquele momento, o país ainda sentia os efeitos da crise financeira internacional de forma mais intensa, que acabou se espalhando pelo mundo. A piora da crise financeira veio após o anúncio de concordata do banco norte-americano Lehman Brothers, em setembro de 2008.
Pelo sistema vigente no Brasil, a meta de inflação é considerada formalmente cumprida quando o IPCA fica dentro do intervalo de tolerância também fixado pelo CMN. Para 2017, esse intervalo é de 1,5 ponto percentual para baixo ou para cima do centro da meta. Assim, o BC terá cumprido a meta se o IPCA terminar este ano entre 3% e 6%.
No ano passado, a inflação ficou acima da meta central, mas dentro do intervalo definido pelo CMN. Já em 2015, a meta foi descumprida pelo BC - naquele ano, a inflação superou a barreira dos 10%.
A previsão de que a meta central será atingida neste ano está relacionada com a forte recessão, embora indicadores comecem a apontar para uma melhora do nível de atividade nos últimos meses. Mesmo assim, o desemprego e a inadimplência permanecem altos.
Para 2018, a previsão do mercado financeiro para a inflação permaneceu estável em 4,50%. O índice está em linha com a meta de inflação do período (4,5%) e também abaixo do teto de 6% para o ano que vem.
Produto Interno Bruto
Para o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) de 2017, o mercado financeiro manteve a previsão de um crescimento de 0,48% - mesma expectativa da semana anterior.
O governo estima uma alta de 1%, mas o ministro da Fazenda, Henrique Meirelles, já confirmou que deverá revisar este número para baixo.
O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços feitos no país, independentemente da nacionalidade de quem os produz, e serve para medir o comportamento da economia brasileira.
Em 2015, houve uma contração de 3,8%, a maior em 25 anos. O resultado de 2016 ainda não foi divulgado pelo IBGE, mas a previsão do mercado é de um "tombo" próximo de 3,5%. Essa será a primeira vez que o país registra dois anos seguidos de retração no nível de atividade da economia – a série histórica oficial, do IBGE, tem início em 1948.
Para 2018, os economistas das instituições financeiras subiram sua estimativa de expansão do PIB de 2,30% para 2,37%.
Taxa de juros
O mercado financeiro baixou sua previsão para a taxa básica de juros da economia, a Selic, de 9,50% para 9,25% ao ano no fechamento de 2017 - ou seja, passou a prever um corte maior dos juros neste ano. Atualmente, a Selic está em 12,25% ao ano.
Para o fechamento de 2018, a estimativa dos economistas dos bancos para a taxa Selic continuou em 9% ao ano. Com isso, estimaram que o processo de corte dos juros terá continuidade no ano que vem.
A taxa básica de juros é o principal instrumento do BC para tentar conter pressões inflacionárias. A instituição tem de calibrar os juros para atingir índices pré-determinados pelo sistema de metas de inflação brasileiro.
As taxas mais altas tendem a reduzir o consumo e o crédito, o que pode contribuir para o controle dos preços. Entretanto, também prejudicam a economia e geram desemprego.
Câmbio, balança e investimentos
Na edição desta semana do relatório Focus, a projeção do mercado financeiro para a taxa de câmbio no fim de 2017 permaneceu em R$ 3,30. Para o fechamento de 2018, a previsão dos economistas para o dólar ficou estável em R$ 3,40.
A projeção do relatório Focus para o resultado da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações) em 2017 subiu de US$ 47,3 bilhões para US$ 47,6 bilhões de resultado positivo. Para o próximo ano, a estimativa dos especialistas do mercado para o superávit permaneceu em US$ 40 bilhões.
A projeção do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil em 2017 subiu de US$ 71 bilhões para US$ 72 bilhões. Para 2018, a estimativa dos analistas recuou de US$ 75 bilhões para US$ 73,5 bilhões.
BACEN. PORTAL UOL. 01/03/2017. Analistas reduzem projeção para inflação e taxa de juros no final de 2017
Do UOL, em São Paulo
Economistas consultados pelo Banco Central reduziram mais uma vez a previsão para a inflação no final de 2017. Agora, a projeção para a alta dos preços é de 4,36%, abaixo da meta do governo, de 4,5%.
A estimativa para a taxa básica de juros (Selic) também caiu, enquanto as previsões para o PIB (Produto Interno Bruto) e dólar foram mantidas.
Veja as projeções para 2017 do Boletim Focus, divulgado nesta quarta-feira (1º) pelo BC:
- PIB: foi mantido em 0,48%;
- Inflação: caiu de 4,43% para 4,36%;
- Taxa de juros: caiu de 9,5% para 9,25% ao ano;
- Dólar: foi mantido em R$ 3,30.
A projeção de 4,36% na alta dos preços deixaria a inflação abaixo do centro da meta do governo. O objetivo é manter a inflação em 4,5% ao ano, com uma tolerância de 1,5 ponto para mais ou menos (ou seja, variando de 3% a 6%).
Para os próximos 12 meses, a projeção de inflação caiu de 4,62% para 4,55%.
Para manter o nível de inflação esperado, o governo faz uso da política monetária, por meio da taxa básica de juros, a Selic. Na última reunião, o Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do Banco Central (BC) reduziu os juros de 13% para 12,25% ao ano, no quarto corte seguido.
A inflação fechou 2016 em 6,29%, dentro do limite máximo da meta do governo.
Entenda o que é o boletim Focus
Toda semana, o BC divulga um relatório de mercado conhecido como Boletim Focus, trazendo as apostas de economistas para os principais indicadores econômicos do país.
Mais de 100 instituições são ouvidas e, excluindo os valores extremos, o BC calcula uma mediana das perspectivas do crescimento da economia (medido pelo Produto Interno Bruto, o PIB), perspectivas para a inflação e a taxa de câmbio, entre outros.
Mediana apresenta o valor central de uma amostra de dados, desprezando os menores e os maiores valores.
(Com Reuters)
BACEN. REUTERS. 01/03/2017. Economistas reduzem projeção para taxa básica de juros em 2017 a 9,25%
SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - A perspectiva para a taxa básica de juros no final deste ano foi reduzida na pesquisa Focus divulgada nesta quarta-feira pelo Banco Central, com projeção mais baixa para a inflação.
Os economistas consultados reduziram a conta para a Selic a 9,25 por cento no final deste ano, de 9,5 por cento no levantamento anterior, depois que o BC reduziu a taxa básica de juros em 0,75 ponto percentual novamente, para os atuais 12,25 por cento.
Os dados do levantamento mostram que a expectativa é de novos corte de 0,75 ponto percentual nas reuniões de abril junho do BC, seguidos de duas reduções de 0,50 ponto e de outras duas de 0,25.
Para o fim de 2018 permanece a projeção de Selic a 9,0 por cento.
Entretanto, o grupo que reúne as instituições que mais acertam as projeções no médio prazo, o Top-5, continua vendo a taxa básica de juros a 9,5 por cento ao final de 2017. Mas para o ano que vem a estimativa foi reduzida a 9,25 por cento, de 9,38 por cento antes na mediana das projeções.
Os especialistas aguardam agora a divulgação da ata da última reunião do BC, que será divulgada na quinta-feira, para calibrar suas apostas.
Com o afrouxamento monetário, as expectativas de inflação permanecem em declínio e os especialistas veem agora uma alta do IPCA de 4,36 por cento este ano, 0,07 ponto percentual a menos do que no levantamento anterior.
A projeção para 2018 continua sendo de um avanço de 4,5 por cento. Para ambos os anos a meta de inflação é de 4,5 por cento, com margem de tolerância de 1,5 ponto percentual.
O IPCA-15 subiu 0,54 por cento em fevereiro, mas no acumulado em 12 meses atingiu 5,02 por cento, menor nível desde junho de 2012.
Para a expansão do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), o levantamento continou mostrando 0,48 por cento neste ano, mas o cenário para 2018 melhorou com expectativa de crescimento de 2,37 por cento, 0,07 ponto a mais.
(Por Camila Moreira)
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LGCJ.:
