Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in March, and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Employment increased in retail trade, construction, and health
care. Job losses occurred in manufacturing and mining.
Household Survey Data
In March, the unemployment rate (5.0 percent) and the number of unemployed
persons (8.0 million) were little changed. Both measures have shown little
movement since August. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.5 percent),
adult women (4.6 percent), teenagers (15.9 percent), Whites (4.3 percent), Blacks
(9.0 percent), Asians (4.0 percent), and Hispanics (5.6 percent) showed little or
no change in March. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was
essentially unchanged at 2.2 million in March and has shown little movement since
June. In March, these individuals accounted for 27.6 percent of the unemployed.
(See table A-12.)
In March, the labor force participation rate (63.0 percent) and the employment-
population ratio (59.9 percent) changed little. Both measures were up by 0.6
percentage point since September. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (also referred to
as involuntary part-time workers) was about unchanged in March at 6.1 million and
has shown little movement since November. These individuals, who would have
preferred full-time employment, were working part-time because their hours had been
cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In March, 1.7 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down
by 335,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These
individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and
had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as
unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 585,000 discouraged workers in March,
down by 153,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.)
Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they
believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.1 million persons
marginally attached to the labor force in March had not searched for work for
reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in March. Employment gains
occurred in retail trade, construction, and health care, while job losses
occurred in manufacturing and mining. (See table B-1.)
Retail trade added 48,000 jobs in March. Employment gains occurred in general
merchandise stores (+12,000), health and personal care stores (+10,000), building
material and garden supply stores (+10,000), and automobile dealers (+5,000).
Over the past 12 months, retail trade has added 378,000 jobs.
Construction employment rose by 37,000 in March. Job gains occurred among
residential specialty trade contractors (+12,000) and in heavy and civil
engineering construction (+11,000). Over the year, construction has added
301,000 jobs.
Employment in health care increased by 37,000 over the month, about in line with
the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. In March, employment rose
in ambulatory health care services (+27,000) and hospitals (+10,000). Over the
year, health care employment has increased by 503,000.
Over the month, employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking
places (+25,000) and in financial activities (+15,000).
In March, employment in professional and business services changed little for the
third month in a row. In 2015, the industry added an average of 52,000 jobs per
month.
Employment in manufacturing declined by 29,000 in March. Most of the job losses
occurred in durable goods industries (-24,000), including machinery (-7,000),
primary metals (-3,000), and semiconductors and electronic components (-3,000).
Mining employment continued to decline in March (-12,000) with losses concentrated
in support activities for mining (-10,000). Since reaching a peak in September 2014,
employment in mining has decreased by 185,000.
Employment in other major industries, including wholesale trade, transportation
and warehousing, information, and government, changed little over the month.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged
at 34.4 hours in March. The manufacturing workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 40.6
hours. Factory overtime was 3.3 hours for the fourth month in a row. The average
workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls
was unchanged at 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls
increased by 7 cents to $25.43, following a 2-cent decline in February. Over the
year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.3 percent. In March, average hourly
earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by
4 cents to $21.37. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from
+172,000 to +168,000, and the change for February was revised from +242,000 to
+245,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February
combined were 1,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job
gains have averaged 209,000 per month.
DoL. 04/01/2016. STATEMENT OF US LABOR SECRETARY PEREZ ON MARCH EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS
WASHINGTON – U.S. Secretary of Labor Thomas E. Perez issued the following statement about the March 2016 Employment Situation report released today:
“The remarkable U.S. recovery continues, as total nonfarm employment increased by 215,000 in March. Beginning just a year after President Obama inherited the worst economic crisis in generations, businesses have been adding jobs at an extended, record-setting clip: a total of 14.4 million jobs over the last 73 consecutive months of private-sector job growth. The March unemployment rate was little changed at 5.0 percent. The labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio are trending up, reaching two-year and seven-year highs respectively.
“Other indicators continue to demonstrate a vibrant, growing economy. Consumer confidence increased last month; the labor market continues to strengthen, with 5.5 million job openings as of the end of January; weekly initial unemployment insurance claims remain consistently low in a way we haven’t seen in more than four decades. Meanwhile, the recovery began at just about the moment the Affordable Care Act was signed into law, six years ago last week. So much for the doomsday predictions that the ACA would wreck the economy – all it’s done is bring the uninsured rate at or near an all-time low, with more than nine in 10 Americans now enjoying health coverage.
“There are so many reasons to be bullish about our economic future, but we can’t become complacent about the challenges that remain. Continued weakness in manufacturing, for example, is a reminder that we must keep working to restore balance to the economy, to ensure that the recovery benefits people in all communities, up and down the income spectrum.
“As I make house calls in my travels across the country, I meet with people whose hard work isn’t rewarded with fair pay, who can barely get by, let alone get ahead. Average hourly earnings increased by 7 cents in March. But the long-range trend of flat wages, pre-dating the Great Recession by several decades, remains our greatest barrier to shared prosperity. That’s why the recent decision by two of the nation’s largest states to adopt the nation’s highest minimum wage, $15 per hour phased in over time, is such good news. This historic step will give millions of New Yorkers and Californians a raise.
“We continue to do everything possible to strengthen the middle class and give working people the economic stability they deserve. We are investing aggressively in the skills and talents of our people – most recently taking steps to help low-income seniors, migrant farmworkers, the people of Flint, Michigan, and young adults involved in the criminal justice system get the training that will lead to good jobs. During the last month, we have also completed final regulations providing important workplace protections – one to reduce exposure to deadly silica dust in construction and other industries, and another to provide workers with better information as they decide whether to join a union.
“The wind is once again at our back; now we have to make sure it propels everyone forward. Building an economy that works for everyone – helping working people get a bigger slice of a growing pie they helped bake – is the unfinished business we will continue tackling in the remaining months of this administration.”
The White House. CEA. The Employment Situation in March
Summary:
The economy added 215,000 jobs in March, extending the longest streak of private-sector job growth on record, as labor force participation rose.
The robust pace of job creation continued in March as labor force participation rose for the fourth consecutive month and hourly wages increased. The private sector has now added 14.4 million jobs over 73 straight months of job growth, the longest streak on record, and wage growth has accelerated over the past year. While these trends speak to the strength of the labor market recovery, more work remains to drive even faster wage growth, including investing in infrastructure and job training, implementing high-standards free trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and raising the minimum wage.
FIVE KEY POINTS ON THE LABOR MARKET IN MARCH 2016
1. U.S. businesses have now added 14.4 million jobs over 73 straight months, extending the longest streak on record. Today we learned that private employment rose by 195,000 jobs in March. Total nonfarm employment rose by 215,000 jobs in March, in line with the pace of recent months and well above the pace necessary to maintain a low and stable unemployment rate given longstanding demographic trends in labor force participation, which CEA estimates at 80,000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0 percent in March, while the labor force participation rate rose to 63.0 percent, reaching the same level as November 2013. Over the past six months, the labor force participation rate has increased by 0.6 percentage point, the largest six-month increase since 1992. Average hourly earnings for private employees increased by 7 cents in March, more than reversing their drop in February, and have grown 2.3 percent over the past year.
2. Growth in aggregate weekly earnings has accelerated in the past two years, with rising real wages accounting for nearly all of the pickup. Aggregate weekly earnings are the total wages and salaries paid to all private employees on nonfarm payrolls. Changes in aggregate earnings can be driven by changes in employment, by changes in the length of the average workweek, or by changes in hourly earnings. Aggregate earnings reached a cyclical trough in December 2009. Over the following year-and-a-half, the increase in aggregate earnings was more than accounted for by a combination of rising employment and a longer workweek, as real wages declined. Over the next three years, increased employment accounted for over 80 percent of the growth in aggregate earnings. Conversely, over the past two years real wage growth—due both to rising nominal wages and to slow inflation as oil prices have declined—has been the main contributor to the speed-up in aggregate earnings, accounting for over 40 percent of overall real aggregate earnings growth. Meanwhile, strong employment growth has continued, offset slightly by reductions in hours.
3. To mark Equal Pay Day (April 12), we note the progress that has been made in closing the earnings gap since the Great Recession, as well the work that remains. Since late 2007, women’s usual weekly earnings have grown at a slightly faster pace than those of men, and the weekly earnings gap has narrowed as a result. The ratio of women’s usual weekly earnings to men’s was 80.8 percent at the end of 2015, up from 79.5 percent at the end of 2007. Many factors—including education, experience, occupation, and industry—contribute to the wage gap, but according to recent research by economists Francine Blau and Lawrence Kahn, about 38 percent of the wage gap is still unexplained by these (and other) observable factors. The ratio of women’s usual weekly earnings to men’s is slightly greater than the commonly cited figure of 79 percent, which is the ratio of annual earnings for the typical woman working full-time, full-year compared to those of a typical man. The difference between these two measures—which reflects differences in the number of weeks that men and women work during the year—highlights the challenges that many women face in balancing work and family. Policies like paid family leave and paid sick leave that ensure that workplaces better reflect the needs of working families would build on the progress made since the recession in closing the wage gap.
4. The labor force participation rate rose to 63.0 percent in March, the same level as in November 2013, having risen 0.6 percentage point over the last six months. As this increase shows, the strengthening recovery has led more individuals to decide to enter the workforce and search for a job, which in recent months has more than offset longstanding declines in labor force participation from the aging of the U.S. population and other preexisting trends. Overall changes in the labor force from month to month are the net effects of individuals moving from one labor market state (employed, unemployed, not in the labor force) to another. Thus, the recent increase in labor force participation reflects an increase in the net flow of individuals from “not in the labor force” into either employment or unemployment. As shown in the chart below, net flows into employment from “not in the labor force” have risen faster recently than net flows into unemployment; net flows into employment are above their prerecession average, while net flows into unemployment are below their prerecession average. A number of policies—including increasing investments in training and apprenticeships, providing wage insurance for unemployed workers, and reforming our broken criminal justice system—would help address some of the causes behind longstanding trends in labor force participation.
5. The distribution of job growth across industries in March generally followed recent trends, with global headwinds continuing to restrain job growth in certain industries, especially manufacturing and mining. Above-average gains relative to the past year were seen in industries such as State and local government (+18,000), retail trade (+48,000), and construction (+37,000). Manufacturing (-29,000) had a noticeably weak month in March, while employment in mining and logging, which includes oil extraction, continued to decline (-12,000). Slowing global growth has weighed on job growth in both of these industries, as weaker foreign demand has put pressure on U.S. exports and has contributed to the decline in oil prices. Across the 17 industries shown below, the correlation between the most recent one-month percent change and the average percent change over the last twelve months was 0.98, well above the average correlation over the previous three years.
As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and payroll employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data as they become available.
FIVE KEY POINTS ON THE LABOR MARKET IN MARCH 2016
1. U.S. businesses have now added 14.4 million jobs over 73 straight months, extending the longest streak on record. Today we learned that private employment rose by 195,000 jobs in March. Total nonfarm employment rose by 215,000 jobs in March, in line with the pace of recent months and well above the pace necessary to maintain a low and stable unemployment rate given longstanding demographic trends in labor force participation, which CEA estimates at 80,000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0 percent in March, while the labor force participation rate rose to 63.0 percent, reaching the same level as November 2013. Over the past six months, the labor force participation rate has increased by 0.6 percentage point, the largest six-month increase since 1992. Average hourly earnings for private employees increased by 7 cents in March, more than reversing their drop in February, and have grown 2.3 percent over the past year.
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LGCJ.:
