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19 de maio de 2017

BRASIL

FITCH. 19 MAY 2017. Brazil. Fitch Affirms Brazil at 'BB'; Outlook Negative

Fitch Ratings-New York-19 May 2017: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB'. The Rating Outlook is Negative. The issue ratings on Brazil's senior unsecured Foreign and Local Currency bonds are also affirmed at 'BB'. The Country Ceiling is affirmed at 'BB+' and the Short-Term Foreign Currency and Local Currency IDRs at 'B'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS 

Brazil's ratings are constrained by the structural weaknesses in its public finances, high and rising government debt burden, weak growth prospects, weaker governance indicators compared with peers, and repeated episodes of political instability that undermine policy-making and have negative implications for the economy. These weaknesses are counter-balanced by its economic diversity and entrenched civil institutions, with its per capita income higher than the 'BB' median. The country's capacity to absorb shocks is bolstered by its flexible exchange rate, robust international reserves position, a strong net sovereign external creditor position, and deep and developed domestic government debt markets. 

In addition, the rating affirmation is supported by the recently improved economic policy environment, the ongoing external adjustment, declining inflation and better anchoring of inflation expectations and the passage of some reforms (e.g. the spending cap) that should facilitate fiscal consolidation. 

The Negative Outlook reflects continued uncertainties around the outlook for Brazil's economic recovery, the prospects for medium-term public debt stabilization given large fiscal imbalances, and the progress on the legislative agenda, specifically pertaining to the social security reform. Despite the spending cap that limits federal spending growth, a weak economic recovery may dampen revenue performance and pose risks to medium-term fiscal consolidation while the pending passage of a social security reform is a key element in making the spending cap viable and credible and supporting broader confidence in public debt sustainability. However, recent political events related to President Temer have increased uncertainty regarding the reform process and could hurt broader confidence and economic recovery prospects. 

Brazil's economic recovery prospects remain challenging after two years of recession, with Fitch forecasting growth of 0.5% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, although downside risks remain. A high and increasing unemployment rate, corporate and household de-leveraging, and lingering fiscal and political uncertainties have weighed on economic recovery. Growth could strengthen in 2018 from the impact of substantial ongoing monetary easing and some improvement in external conditions. The government is also working on measures to improve the difficult business climate, although the impact of these will likely take time to materialize. Increased international and domestic financial volatility, a setback in the domestic reform agenda that hurts confidence and a more muted impact of monetary easing on domestic demand continue to represent downside risks for the growth outlook. 

Brazil's fiscal deficits are expected to remain large and decline gradually during the forecast period. Fitch forecasts the general government deficit to average close to 8% of GDP during 2017-2018, down from close to 9% of GDP in 2016. Brazil's general government debt burden reached 69.9% of GDP in 2016 compared with around 50% of GDP for the 'BB' median and Fitch expects it to continue climbing during the forecast period to nearly 80% of GDP by 2018. 

Brazil met its public sector primary deficit target in 2016 and has announced spending adjustments and withdrawal of selective tax breaks to meet the 2017 primary deficit target of 2.1% of GDP. Fitch currently expects the government to meet its target for 2017, although downside risks persist. In light of the shallow economic recovery and revenue under-performance, the government has relaxed its medium-term fiscal consolidation goals, with a primary surplus expected only in 2020. A subdued growth outlook and the forthcoming 2018 election cycle mean that measures to accelerate consolidation are unlikely and there is risk of continued fiscal under-performance. 

Certain states are also confronting financial distress. The government is planning to address this issue by offering such states debt service relief on their loans from the central government in exchange for implementing austerity measures. 

Brazil is engaged in a reform process, which if implemented, would help contain medium-term public sector expenditure growth. The government was successful in passing the spending cap (whereby federal primary spending will grow by the previous year's inflation). Despite some dilution, a social security reform that results in medium-to-long term savings compared to the current no-reform scenario is in the midst of the approval process in congress. A social security reform would ease growth in pension spending and improve the prospects for meeting the spending cap in the medium term. 

The political environment remains challenging although the policy and reform inertia have eased over the past few months. The passage of some reforms attests to the stronger coalition base of the Temer administration. However, broader governability and the reform process remain vulnerable to the fallout from the widening scope of the Lava Jato investigations, which is now involving leading politicians. Brazil's 2018 presidential and congressional elections could also introduce uncertainty. 

On the positive side, some of Brazil's macroeconomic imbalances are progressively declining. The IPCA inflation rate is expected to fall slightly below the target of 4.5% in 2017, after exceeding the target for several years. Moreover, inflation expectations for 2018 are better anchored around the target, reflecting gains in the central bank's credibility. The faster-than-expected decline in inflation and inflation expectations has facilitated the frontloading and acceleration of the monetary easing cycle. 

On the external front, the current account deficit fell to 1.3% of GDP in 2016 from an average of 3.8% during 2014-2015 reflecting the deep recession and the BRL depreciation. Fitch projects the current account deficit to widen somewhat but remain relatively moderate, averaging 1.8% during 2017-2018. More importantly, foreign direct investment has remained resilient and continues to amply finance the current account deficit. Moreover, Brazil's international reserves remain robust and the central bank has reduced the stock of FX swaps significantly over the past year. 

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) and QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Brazil a score equivalent to a rating of 'BBB-' on the Long-Term FC IDR scale. 

Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM to arrive at the final Long-Term FC IDR by applying its QO, relative to rated peers, as follows:

  • Public Finance: -1 notch, to reflect Brazil's rapidly worsened general government debt burden which is projected to continue rising during the forecast period. Moreover, fiscal flexibility is hampered by the highly rigid spending profile and a heavy tax burden that makes adjustment to shocks difficult. 
  • Structural Features:-1 notch, to reflect Brazil's challenging political environment and corruption-related issues that have made it difficult for the country to make timely policy adjustments. In addition, the Ease of Doing Business indicators are weaker than the 'BB' median, reflecting structural constraints to growth. 

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a Long-Term FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The main factors that, individually or collectively, could lead to a downgrade are:

  • Failure to arrest the pace of increase in the government debt burden. Crystallization of contingent liabilities would be negative. 
  • Re-emergence of political volatility that detracts from effective policy making and progress on economic reforms needed to improve the outlook for public finances and growth. 
  • Erosion of international reserves and deterioration in government debt composition.

The Rating Outlook is Negative. Consequently, Fitch's sensitivity analysis does not currently anticipate developments with a high likelihood of leading to a positive rating change. Future developments that could individually, or collectively, result in a stabilization of the Outlook include:

  • Improvement in policy implementation and reform progress that supports confidence, investment and growth prospects.
  • Fiscal consolidation that leads to greater confidence in the capacity of the government to achieve debt stabilization in the medium term.
  • Maintenance of improved macroeconomic stability. 

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  • Fitch assumes that China (an important trading partner for Brazil) will be able to manage a gradual slowdown and is forecasted to grow at 6.3% in 2017 and 5.7% in 2018. Argentina's economic performance (key destination of manufacturing exports) is forecasted to improve over the forecast period, with growth averaging nearly 3% during 2017-2018. 
  • Fitch assumes that Brazil maintains international and domestic market access even if there is return of higher international financial volatility and further domestic confidence shocks. 

FITCH. PORTAL G1. 19/05/2017. Fitch mantém Brasil abaixo do grau de investimento e reafirma perspectiva negativa. Agência cita crescimento fraco e 'repetidos episódios de instabilidade política'.
Por Darlan Alvarenga, G1

A agência de classificação de risco Fitch anunciou nesta sexta-feira (19) que decidiu manter a nota de crédito soberano do Brasil em "BB" - dois degraus abaixo do grau de investimento (selo de bom pagador). Ao mesmo tempo, reafirmou a perspectiva negativa para o rating do país.
Ao manter inalterada o rating do Brasil, a agência destacou o crescimento fraco da economia e "repetidos episódios de instabilidade política" como riscos.
"O rating do Brasil é contido pela fraqueza estrutural em suas finanças públicas, peso crescente da dívida do governo, perspectivas fracas de crescimento, indicadores mais fracos de governança em relação a outros, e repetidos episódios de instabilidade política que afetam a política e têm implicações negativas para a economia", apontou a Fitch em nota.
Por outro lado, a agência destaca que as fraquezas são compensadas pela diversidade econômica do país e instituições consolidadas, citando ainda como motivo para não alterar a nota do Brasil a queda da inflação e reformas como a do teto dos gastos.
Governo diz ter compromisso com consolidação fiscal
Em nota, o Ministério da Fazenda disse estar compromissado com a busca da consolidação fiscal do país e a sustentabilidade da dívida pública. "A avaliação da agência reforça a importância das iniciativas que visam à recuperação da economia brasileira e à construção das bases para o crescimento sustentado", disse a Fazenda, destacando que a decisão da agência faz menção ""à importância e ao desafio da aprovação das reformas em curso, as quais ajudarão na reversão do cenário fiscal, contribuindo para uma trajetória benigna de endividamento público".



Incertezas
"A perspectiva negativa reflete incertezas continuadas em torno das perspectivas de recuperação econômica do Brasil, de estabilização da dívida pública e aos avanços na agenda legislativa, em especial a reforma da Previdência", acrescentou.
A Fitch prevê crescimento de 0,5% PIB do Brasil em 2017 e de 2,5% em 2018.
"Entretanto, recentes eventos políticos relacionados ao presidente Temer elevaram a incerteza em relação ao processo de reformas e podem afetar a confiança e as perspectivas de recuperação econômica", completou a agência.
O Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) autorizou abertura de investigação contra Temer depois que Joesley Batista, dono da JBS, gravou um diálogo com o presidente. Segundo o jornal "O Globo", Joesley informou aos investigadores que, nessa conversa, ele e Temer discutiram a compra do silêncio do deputado cassado Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ), preso na Lava Jato, com o objetivo de evitar que ele fizesse delação.
Fitch segue S&P
A nota do Brasil e a perspectiva seguem a mesma na classificação da agência desde maio de 2016.
A Fitch repete movimento também feito pela agência Standard and Poor's (S&P), que em fevereiro também decidiu manter inalterada a nota do Brasil e a perspectiva negativa, citando incertezas políticas e fraqueza da economia.
Entenda o que é grau de investimento
Perda do grau de investimento
Atualmente, a nota do Brasil está na mesma posição nas escalas das 3 principais agências de classificação de risco: dois degraus abaixo do grau de investimento, considerado uma espécie de selo de país bom pagador.
Na Moody´s, perspectiva foi elevada de negativa para estável em março. Em comunicado nesta sexta, entretanto, a agência afirmou que "as alegações envolvendo o presidente Michel Temer prejudicam a perspectiva de crédito do Brasil ameaçando paralisar ou reverter o positivo momento político e econômico observado recentemente".
O Brasil conquistou o grau de investimento pelas agências internacionais Fitch Ratings e Standard & Poor’s pela primeira vez em 2008. Em 2009, conseguiu a classificação pela Moody’s.
A S&P foi primeira a tirar o selo de bom pagador do Brasil, em setembro de 2015, ação que foi seguida pelas outras duas grandes agências internacionais: Fitch e Moody´s.
Segundo analistas de mercado, historicamente, países costumam levar cerca de 5 a 10 anos para recuperar o selo de país bom pagador.

FITCH. REUTERS. 19/05/2017. Fitch reafirma rating do Brasil mas cita instabilidade política como risco

(Reuters) - A agência de classificação de risco Fitch reafirmou nesta sexta-feira o rating do Brasil em "BB" com perspectiva negativa, citando os repetidos episódios de instabilidade política que têm implicações para a economia.

"O rating do Brasil é contido pela fraqueza estrutural em suas finanças públicas, peso crescente da dívida do governo, perspectivas fracas de crescimento, indicadores mais fracos de governança em relação a outros, e repetidos episódios de instabilidade política que afetam a política e têm implicações negativas para a economia", apontou a Fitch em nota.

Por outro lado, a Fitch destaca que essas fraquezas são compensadas pela diversidade econômica do país e instituições civis consolidadas, citando ainda como motivo para reafirmar o rating a queda da inflação e as reformas que devem facilitar a consolidação fiscal, como a do teto dos gastos.

A Fitch prevê crescimento de 0,5 por cento do Brasil em 2017 e de 2,5 por cento em 2018.

"Entretanto, recentes eventos políticos relacionados ao presidente Temer elevaram a incerteza em relação ao processo de reformas e podem afetar a confiança e as perspectivas de recuperação econômica", completou a nota.

O Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) autorizou abertura de inquérito contra o presidente Michel Temer em consequência da denúncia de que Temer teria dado aval ao empresário Joesley Batista para manter pagamentos ao ex-deputado Eduardo Cunha em troca de silêncio sobre denúncias contra o governo.

MOODY'S. PORTAL G1. 19/05/2017. Crise política pode interromper reformas, diz Moody´s
Em março, agência elevou perspectiva do rating do Brasil de negativa para estável.
Por G1

A agência de classificação de risco Fitch afirmou nesta sexta-feira (19) que a crise política aberta com a delação de Joesley Batista envolvendo o presidente Michel Temer prejudica a perspectiva de crédito do Brasil e pode interromper as reformas, o que é negativo para a nota do país.
"As alegações envolvendo o presidente Michel Temer prejudicam a perspectiva de crédito do Brasil ameaçando paralisar ou reverter o positivo momento político e econômico observado recentemente. Elas também desviam o foco dos esforços para a promoção das reformas fiscais. Estas reformas, que são críticas para a melhora da força fiscal do país, provavelmente serão interrompidas", destaca a Fitch.
Em março, agência elevou perspectiva do rating do Brasil de negativa para estável. Nas outras duas grandes agências, Moody´s e Standard and Poor's (S&P), a perspectiva do rating do país segue negativa.
No comunicado desta sexta, a Moody´s pondera entretanto que "ainda é muito cedo para avaliar os desdobramentos das revelações" e ressalta que o que pode ameaçar a perspectiva estável do rating do Brasil são os mesmos fatores destacados na avaliação anunciada em março pela agência, como “um ressurgimento da desarticulação política" e "especialmente atrasos na aprovação da reforma da Previdência".

MOODY'S. REUTERS. 19/05/2017. Moody's diz que alegações sobre Temer podem paralisar reformas e pressionar rating

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - A agência de classificação de risco Moody's Investors Service afirmou que as alegações envolvendo o presidente Michel Temer podem colocar pressão negativa sobre o rating do Brasil se reformas importantes paralisarem.

"Uma dinâmica de atraso de reformas que ameaçaria a implementação de reformas fiscais colocaria pressão negativa sobre o rating", disse a agência em comunicado.

(Reportagem de Tatiana Bautzer)

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IMF. May 19, 2017. IMF COUNTRY FOCUS. Latin America and the Caribbean: Bouncing Back from Recession

Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to gradually emerge from recession in 2017, but to secure strong and inclusive growth going forward the region needs to address gaps in infrastructure, improve education outcomes, strengthen the business environment, and tackle corruption, the IMF said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere.

Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2016 was the third-lowest in 30 years—contracting by 1 percent after stagnating in 2015. Growth was held back by weak domestic demand from lower commodity prices, ongoing fiscal and external adjustment in some countries, and other country-specific domestic factors.

The IMF forecasts growth to expand by 1.1 percent this year and 2 percent in 2018. Over the medium term, growth is expected to remain subdued at 2.6 percent.

According to the report, this outlook is shaped by key shifts in the global economic and policy landscape, including a modest rebound in commodity prices and partner country demand, and higher global policy uncertainty. Domestic developments will continue to play a significant role in determining growth in many economies.

“With heightened policy uncertainty at the global level but low market volatility, countries in our region should focus on insuring against downside risks, while targeting strong, sustainable, and inclusive growth,” Alejandro Werner, Director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, told a press conference in São Paulo, Brazil.

External and domestic forces

In this challenging external environment, the report pointed out that many countries in the region should advance fiscal and external adjustments to preserve or rebuild policy buffers (for example, by improving primary balances to stabilize rising public debt).

Charting a course toward higher, sustainable, and more equitable growth will also require domestic reforms. These vary by country, and include closing infrastructure gaps; improving the business environment, governance, and education outcomes; deepening regional trade integration; and encouraging female labor force participation to boost medium-term growth and foster income convergence. These policies would help raise future growth by increasing contributions from labor, capital, and productivity.

Regional roundup

Growth prospects in South America are shaped by a combination of key domestic developments and shifts in the global landscape.

In Argentina, the recovery is under way. Growth is expected to grow 2¼ percent in 2017, driven by a rebound of private consumption, stronger public capital spending, and a pickup in exports.

In Brazil, after two years of recession, growth is expected to return to positive territory—estimated at 0.2 percent in 2017—thanks to a bumper soybean crop, one-time boost to consumption, a faster-than-expected decline in inflation, and higher iron ore prices.

In Venezuela, the economy is expected to remain in a deep recession and on a path to hyperinflation. Because there is no sign of a shift in economic policies, real GDP is expected to fall by 7.4 percent in 2017.

For other commodity exporters, the modest recovery in commodity prices will provide some relief. Despite slightly better external conditions, the outlook for Chile remains subdued, reflecting lingering domestic weaknesses. As a result, growth in 2017 is projected at 1.7 percent.

In Colombia, the orderly economic slowdown continued last year as domestic demand has been adjusting to a permanent shock to national income. While one-off factors led to a weaker-than anticipated growth in 2016, a mild rebound is expected in 2017.

Peru ’s economy grew at a rapid pace in 2016. But investment continues to lag and domestic headwinds related to a political bribery probe in connection with the Brazilian company Odebrecht, along with the worst flooding and landslides in decades, may put a drag on 2017 investment and growth.

The outlook and risks for Central America and Mexico are being influenced by their exposure to the United States through trade, migration, and foreign direct investment. Mexico’s real GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 1.7 percent in 2017. Uncertainty about future trade relations with the United States and higher borrowing costs are expected to more than offset the positive effect from stronger U.S. growth.

Growth in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic is expected to remain broadly unchanged from last year in 2017. Strong U.S. growth will help support exports and remittances.

Prospects for the Caribbean region are improving, with growth in both tourism-dependent economies and commodity exporters projected to be in the 1.5-3 percent range for 2017 and 2018.

FMI. PORTAL G1. REUTERS. 19/05/2017. FMI vai monitorar cena política no Brasil para decidir se muda previsões. Órgão estima que neste ano o Brasil sairá da recessão ao crescer 0,2%.
Por Reuters

O Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) acompanhará a turbulência política em curso no Brasil para decidir se vai mudar suas perspectivas para a maior economia da América Latina, disse nesta sexta-feira o chefe do Departamento de Hemisfério Ocidental do FMI, Alejandro Werner.
Leia mais: FMI eleva previsão de crescimento do PIB do Brasil em 2018
O órgão estima que neste ano o Brasil sairá da recessão ao crescer 0,2%, e que em 2018, a economia do país terá um desempenho ainda melhor, com elevação de 1,7%, ante previsão de 1,5% em janeiro.
O Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) autorizou abertura de inquérito contra o presidente Michel Temer em consequência da denúncia de que Temer teria dado aval ao empresário Joesley Batista para manter pagamentos ao ex-deputado Eduardo Cunha em troca de silêncio sobre denúncias contra o governo.
Na conversa gravada, Joesley confessou ter pago propina a um procurador da República para ter acesso antecipado a investigações que o envolvia, reclamou de nomeações para cargos importantes no governo, defendeu queda mais acentuada da Selic e disse que "zerou" as pendências com o ex-deputado Eduardo Cunha.


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LGCJ.:
CANADA ECONOMICS


BRAZIL

BLOOMBERG. 2017 M05 19. Chaos Takes Hold in Brazil as Markets Sink, Temer Vows to Fight
by Bruce Douglas  and Raymond Colitt

  • $150 billion wiped off the value of the local stock market
  • Allegations against president exploded ‘like an atomic bomb’
  • What a New Political Crisis Means for Brazil

The impeachment of one president was traumatic. The prospect of two back-to-back spread dread and disbelief across Brazil Thursday as federal police raided politicians’ homes, helicopters droned over the capital city, markets collapsed and a defiant President Michel Temer declared he wouldn’t step down.

It has been just 12 months since the removal of his predecessor, Dilma Rousseff, on charges she broke budget laws. Allegations against Temer could end his tenure too, if what the O Globo newspaper reported is true -- that he endorsed the payment of hush-money to the imprisoned former speaker of the lower house of Congress.

The news exploded “like an atomic bomb,” in the words of Alessandro Molon, an opposition lawmaker. Calls for the president’s ouster mounted. Temer was holed up with advisers for much of the day before saying in a televised speech that he intends to hold on to power and prove his innocence. “I know what I did,” he said. “I know my actions were correct.”

For investors who bought into his pledge to push austerity measures on a nation enduring the worst recession on record, the day delivered a crushing blow, including a 15 percent drop in the shares of state-owned oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, which is at the center of the sweeping Operation Carwash corruption investigation. The stock-market losses totaled $150 billion.



Late on Thursday Temer told G1 news site that the matter had been blown out of proportion and that the crisis would be over sooner than people expect. In early trading on Friday the real bounced back 1.5 percent, after plunging over seven percent the day before. Petrobras shares were up 4 percent.
Brazilians, long familiar with scandal and upheaval, aren’t looking forward to more legal proceedings and political wrangling, maddeningly reminiscent of the tumultuous months preceding Rousseff’s impeachment. In a gritty open-air shopping arcade in downtown Brasilia, some people said they’d be better off with a return to a military dictatorship.

‘All Clowns’

Francisco Rodrigues Araujo, 41, a vendor selling clothes displayed on a blue blanket, had another idea. He suggested that Tiririca, a famous circus clown and a federal deputy who ran in 2010 on the slogan, “It can’t get any worse!,” be installed in the presidency.

“They’re all clowns anyway,” he said. “Why not put one in charge?”

The country’s tumble into its latest crisis began with the O Globo report Wednesday night that the Supreme Court had received testimony that Temer approved payment of a bribe to buy the silence of Eduardo Cunha, the former speaker and mastermind of last year’s impeachment process. On Thursday afternoon, the paper’s website posted an audiotape that purports to be of Temer discussing the alleged payoff.

The paper said the testimony was submitted by Joesley and Wesley Batista, the brothers who run the meat-packing giant JBS SA, as part of a plea-bargain deal in an Operation Carwash case. The court is looking into the allegations against Temer and others implicated by the Batistas as part of Carwash, which started three years ago as an investigation into a money-laundering scheme run out of a gas station in Brasilia and blew up into a scandal that has tarnished most of Brazil’s political establishment.

Opposition parties, which began filing for Temer’s impeachment within hours of the O Globo report, called for street protests in favor of new elections. As night fell, crowds gathered in several cities to demand the president’s ouster. In Rio, police fired stun guns and tear gas at rock-throwing demonstrators.

Outside the presidential palace in Brasilia, about 1,000 people waved flags and chanted a slogan, which rhymes in Portuguese, that calls Temer a thief who belongs in prison. Joao Bendito, 18, saw the rally as just the beginning. “It will need a lot more people to really make Temer resign,” he said, “the common people who are indignant at these spoiled children in power today.”

Resentment has been building for months against Temer, an unelected president -- he stepped into the job as Rousseff’s vice president -- with single-digit approval ratings who many Brazilians associate with shady wheeling and dealing. Eight of his cabinet ministers have been forced to resign over allegations of misconduct; three are currently under investigation. His political enemies frequently compare him to a butler in a horror movie.

As Thursday wore on, the Temer government suffered several blows, with allies jumping ship or threatening to quit if the allegations proved true. The culture minister, Roberto Freire, handed in his resignation.

In his speech, Temer said the renewed political uncertainty comes just as prospects for Brazil are improving, with inflation under control, signs of economic recovery sprouting and reform bills advancing in Congress. “All this immense effort to haul the country out of its worst recession could be in vain,” he said. “We cannot throw so much work for the good of our country into the dustbin of history.”

Janete Silva, a writer protesting outside the presidential palace, wasn’t buying it. “Temer’s speech was hypocritical, insecure, authoritarian and arrogant,” she said. “It shows that he doesn’t care what people think."

The president is facing another threat: Brazil’s top electoral court is assessing whether to annul the results of the 2014 elections on grounds the joint Rousseff-Temer campaign was financed illegally.

As it is, “Temer’s refusal to step down means that political uncertainty will remain heightened in the near term, fueling street protests and bringing Congress to a halt,” Thomaz Favaro, the chief Brazil analyst at consulting firm Control Risks, wrote in a note. “An unscheduled government change remains a credible development.”

BLOOMBERG. 2017 M05 19. For These Die-Hard Investors, Now Is the Time to Buy Brazil
by Paula Sambo

  • Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley say Ambev looks attractive
  • Some see value in bonds from JBS, company at center of crisis
  • What a New Political Crisis Means for Brazil

For months, investing in Brazil has been a breeze. Buying into any asset class delivered some of the world’s biggest gains as traders cheered on President Michel Temer’s pursuit of austerity measures designed to rein in a ballooning budget deficit.

That changed abruptly Wednesday evening, following reports that Temer approved illegal payments to a disgraced lawmaker who had orchestrated the impeachment of his predecessor. Investors smelled a disaster in the making, and markets staged a a massive selloff Thursday with everything from the real to the Ibovespa to Brazilian bonds tanking.



Yet some brave fund managers are bringing out their calculators and looking for buying opportunities amid the chaos. Sure, they acknowledge, Temer might well be on his way out and his ambitious plans to rein in the pension system and change Brazil’s labor laws seems imperiled, but Latin America’s biggest economy still holds a lot of value for investors willing to put in the work.

“In the short term, this is negative for social security reform and for sentiment, but we’re the kind of fund that when prices fall, we’re more inclined to buy,” said Adrian Landgrebe, an emerging-markets portfolio manager at Sagil Capital in London. “We see some really extreme moves and those are the kind of things that we look to buy.”

Brazilian assets staged somewhat of a recovery Friday, with the real rallying 2.8 percent to 3.2831 per dollar as of 10:21 a.m. in New York and the Ibovespa adding 3.1 percent. Sovereign bonds also advanced.

It followed a rout on Thursday. The real fell the most since 1999, the Ibovespa tumbled to the lowest since January and government bonds posted the biggest loss in emerging markets.



No one is saying it’s all smooth sailing from here. Temer stuck a defiant tone in a speech Thursday evening, saying he wouldn’t resign and denying any wrongdoing, dashing some investors’ hopes for a quick resolution. But the optimists say Brazil is a massive economy with a large middle class and abundant natural resources, and at some point it’ll regain its footing.

Brazilian assets had rallied over the past 18 months as investors gained confidence that the government would be able to tackle the excessive spending and low tax revenue that had resulted in the loss of its coveted investment-grade rating. The Ibovespa surged 69 percent in dollar terms last year, while the real strengthened 22 percent, the best performance in the world for both stocks and currencies.

Marcelo Assalin, who manages $8.5 billion as head of emerging-market debt at NN Investment Partners, said Thursday’s selloff was exacerbated by the fact that so many big investors were overweight Brazil and were quickly trying to unwind their positions. He said the outlook for markets is dependent on how fast an institutional solution takes shape.

“The time will come to search for good investing opportunities,” he said. “This is the time to be calm and wait for more clarity. Brazilian assets offer good value to investors who have a longer-term approach.”

Several analysts say that Ambev SA, the Brazilian unit of the world’s largest brewer, Anheuser-Busch InBev, could be a good stock pick. Deutsche Bank AG wrote in a note that the beermaker’s currency hedges would help protect it from a weaker real, and Morgan Stanley strategist Guilherme Paiva also cited it as a good value.

Investors should favor high-quality companies able to withstand prolonged political uncertainty and economic weakness, Paiva wrote. In addition to Ambev, he recommended shares of pulp- and paper-maker Fibria Celulose SA, dental insurer Odontoprev SA and Ultrapar Participacoes SA, a fuel distributor.

Fibria and its rivals Suzano Papel & Celulose SA and Klabin SA were some of the few bright spots among Brazilian stocks Thursday, rallying on speculation that a weaker currency will boost their competitiveness by making their exports cheaper in dollar terms.

Iron-ore miner Vale SA is also a good bet, according to Tony Robson, chairman of Global Mining Research in Sydney, who said the company’s fundamentals remain sound.

Vinicius Pasquarelli, an emerging-market debt trader at Fynsa International in Santiago, said the selloff in bonds from state-controlled oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA makes them look like a good buy.

“When a country like Brazil faces a scenario of political risk as strong as this, a good strategy is to take advantage of low prices to get active in the best credit stories,” he said.

Perhaps the unlikeliest recommendation to emerge from Thursday’s carnage was to buy bonds from the company that helped cause all the chaos, JBS SA. The allegations that Temer approved payoffs to buy the silence of lawmaker Eduardo Cunha stemmed from leaked testimony by the meatpacking giant’s executives.

The executives’ plea deals signal JBS is closer to putting the scandal behind it, according to Ian McCall, who manages $185 million in emerging-market assets at Quesnell Capital in Geneva. He recommends notes from the meatpacker and its Eldorado Brasil Celulose SA offshoot.

Jim Barrineau, the co-head of emerging markets debt for Schroder Investment Management, said he was sticking with bets on bonds from Petrobras and JBS on the view that as more of the corruption details leak out, the less risk there are for new damaging revelations.

“The cloud on top of JBS and Eldorado can begin to lift,” said McCall, who added that he was fully aware of the irony of his recommendation. “For those two names, the events of the past 24 hours can turn out to be quite constructive in the longer run.”

________________


STATISTICS

StatCan. 2017-05-19. Consumer Price Index, April 2017

Consumer Price Index
April 2017
1.6% increase (12-month change)
Source(s): CANSIM table 326-0020.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in April, matching the gain in March.

Overall, energy prices rose more year over year in April than they did in March, while declines in food prices moderated.

Excluding food and energy, the CPI was up 1.5% on a year-over-year basis in April, following a 1.7% increase in March.

Chart 1   Chart 1: The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the CPI excluding food and energy
The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the CPI excluding food and energy

Chart 1: The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the CPI excluding food and energy

12-month change in the major components

Prices were up in six of the eight major components in the 12 months to April, with the transportation and shelter indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year rise in the CPI. The food index declined on a year-over-year basis for the seventh consecutive month.

Chart 2   Chart 2: Consumer prices increase in six of the eight major components
Consumer prices increase in six of the eight major components

Chart 2: Consumer prices increase in six of the eight major components

Transportation costs rose 4.2% over the 12-month period ending in April, after increasing 4.6% in March. This deceleration was led by the purchase of passenger vehicles index, which rose less on a year-over-year basis in April than in March. Gasoline prices posted a 15.9% year-over-year increase in April, slightly larger than the 15.2% rise registered in March. On a monthly basis, gasoline prices rose 9.5% in April, partly due to supply disruptions at oil refineries, as they changed over to summer fuel blends.

Shelter costs rose 2.2% in April on a year-over-year basis, matching the increases in February and March. The homeowners' replacement cost index (+3.9%) was the main upward contributor to the 12-month change in the shelter index, despite slowing growth since November 2016. Prices for natural gas (+15.2%) rose on a year-over-year basis for the fourth consecutive month. Conversely, electricity prices posted their fourth consecutive decline, down 1.3% year over year in April.

The recreation, education and reading index grew 3.3% in the 12 months to April, following a 3.6% increase in March. The travel tours index rose 9.4% year over year in April, contributing the most to the rise in the recreation, education and reading index. Traveller accommodation costs were up 5.7% year over year in April, after rising 1.4% in March. At the same time, the video equipment index fell 8.8% on a year-over-year basis in April. Prices for video and audio subscription services rose less in the year to April than in the 12-months to March.

The household operations, furnishings and equipment index rose 0.5% year over year in April, following no change in March. This acceleration was mainly attributable to a 3.8% month-over-month rise in the prices of telephone services, as new product introductions affected the price of service plans.

12-month change in the provinces

In five provinces, consumer prices rose less on a year-over-year basis in April than in March. The 12-month increase in the CPI was unchanged in two provinces in April from a month earlier, while it accelerated in Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia.

Chart 3   Chart 3: Consumer prices rise at a slower rate in five provinces
Consumer prices rise at a slower rate in five provinces

Chart 3: Consumer prices rise at a slower rate in five provinces

In the Atlantic provinces, the gasoline index was the main contributor to the deceleration in the year-over-year change in consumer prices, due in part to smaller monthly increases this April compared with a year ago. At the national level, gasoline prices rose more on a year-over-year basis in April than in March.

Consumer prices in Ontario rose 1.9% in the 12 months to April, matching the gain in March. The homeowners' replacement cost index registered a 6.8% year-over-year increase in April, which was the largest gain among the provinces for the 10th consecutive month. Passenger vehicle insurance premiums were up 4.4% in the 12-month period ending in April, following a 3.5% increase in March. Among the provinces, Ontario registered the largest decline in men's clothing prices in the 12 months to April.

In Saskatchewan, an increase in the provincial sales tax, effective March 23, 2017, and an increase in its scope, effective April 1, 2017, both contributed to an acceleration in consumer price growth in the province. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI in Saskatchewan posted a 1.4% gain in April, after increasing 0.6% in March. Prices for food purchased from restaurants were up 7.3% year over year in April. Despite registering a 4.6% month-over-month increase, the telephone services index still declined 10.4% on a year-over-year basis in April.

In Nova Scotia, consumer prices rose 0.8% year over year in April, following a 1.3% gain in March. Among the provinces, Nova Scotia posted one of the largest declines in fresh vegetable prices in the 12 months to April. Passenger vehicle insurance premiums posted a 1.8% year-over-year decline in April; Nova Scotia was the sole province to record a decline in this index. Additionally, fuel oil prices were up 11.5% year over year in April, after posting a 15.0% gain in March.

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.5% in April after falling 0.2% in March.

Chart 4   Chart 4: Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index
Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index

Chart 4: Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index

Six major components increased on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis in April, with the transportation index (+1.3%) recording the largest increase. The clothing and footwear index declined 0.6%, while the recreation, education and reading index was unchanged.

Chart 5   Chart 5: The clothing index and its subcomponents, annual average, Canada, 1983 to 2016
The clothing index and its subcomponents, annual average, Canada, 1983 to 2016

Chart 5: The clothing index and its subcomponents, annual average, Canada, 1983 to 2016


FULL DOCUMENT: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170519/dq170519a-eng.pdf

StatCan. 2017-05-19. Retail trade, March 2017

Retail sales — Canada
$48.3 billion, March 2017
0.7% increase (monthly change)
Source(s): CANSIM table 080-0020.

Following a 0.4% decline in February, retail sales rose 0.7% in March to $48.3 billion on the strength of higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers. Sales were up in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 53% of total retail trade.

After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms rose 1.2%.

Chart 1   Chart 1: Retail sales increase in March
Retail sales increase in March

Chart 1: Retail sales increase in March

New car dealers lead gain

Motor vehicle and parts dealers (+3.2%) recorded the largest gain in dollar terms across all subsectors. The increase was largely attributable to higher sales at new car dealers (+3.8%). Used car dealers (+2.7%) and automotive parts, accessories and tire stores (+1.2%) also posted higher sales. Sales at other motor vehicle dealers (-1.4%) were down for the third month in a row.

Sales at general merchandise stores (+1.4%) were up for the third consecutive month.

Electronics and appliance stores (+3.1%) continued their upward trend in March.

Store types traditionally associated with housing purchases and home renovation showed growth in March. Sales at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+1.0%) and furniture and home furnishings stores (+0.8%) both increased for the sixth time in seven months.

Amid lower consumer prices for food purchased from stores, lower receipts were reported at food and beverage stores (-0.7%). This decrease was due in large part to weaker sales at supermarkets and other grocery stores (-0.6%) and, to a lesser extent, convenience stores (-2.9%).

Sales up in seven provinces

Retail sales were up in seven provinces in March. Higher sales in Ontario and British Columbia accounted for the majority of the increase.

In Ontario, retail sales increased 0.9%, primarily on the strength of higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers.

Sales in British Columbia rose 2.3%. Gains were widespread across most store types.

Following severe winter weather events in February, retail sales in Nova Scotia (+4.8%) rebounded on higher sales at new and used car dealers.

Sales in Saskatchewan (+2.7%) continued their upward trend in March, rising for the eighth consecutive month. Over this period, higher sales have been reported at general merchandise stores, gasoline stations, and health and personal care stores.

In Quebec, retail sales decreased 0.8%.

After increasing for seven consecutive months, sales in Alberta fell for the first time since mid-2016.

E-commerce sales by Canadian retailers

The figures in this section are based on unadjusted (that is, not seasonally adjusted) estimates.

On an unadjusted basis, retail e-commerce sales were $1.2 billion in March, accounting for 2.4% of total retail trade. On a year-over-year basis, retail e-commerce sales increased 43.2% while total unadjusted retail sales rose 9.5%.

Summary tables of unadjusted data by industry and by province and territory are now available.

FULL DOCUMENT: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170519/dq170519b-eng.pdf

StatCan. 2017-05-19. Investment in new housing construction, March 2017

Investment in new housing construction — Canada
$4,191.3 million, March 2017
9.0% increase (12-month change)
Source(s): CANSIM table 026-0017.

New housing construction investment totalled $4.2 billion in March, up 9.0% compared with March 2016. This gain was mainly the result of a $252.6 million increase in investments in Ontario.

Nationally, higher investments were observed for the four main types of dwellings. The biggest gain was observed in spending on single-family dwellings, rising $265.8 million to $2.2 billion. This accounted for just over half (51.8%) of total spending on residential construction in March.

Investments in apartment building construction totalled $1.4 billion in March, accounting for one-third (33.4%) of total spending. At the national level, investments in this type of dwelling edged up 0.2% from March 2016. Five provinces posted increases for this type of dwelling, led by British Columbia ($70.3 million), while the other provinces reported declines, with Alberta falling by $52.7 million and Ontario down $17.2 million compared with March 2016.

Investments of $438.7 million in new row housing construction represent an increase of 14.4% compared with March 2016 levels. For this type of dwelling, eight provinces posted increases, led by Ontario with a $52.5 million gain year over year.

Compared with March 2016, construction spending on double dwellings rose 12.4% to $183.9 million in March, with every province except British Columbia and Manitoba showing increases.

Chart 1   Chart 1: Investment in new housing construction, by type of dwelling
Investment in new housing construction, by type of dwelling

Chart 1: Investment in new housing construction, by type of dwelling

Ontario continues to account for much of the national increase in spending

In March, eight provinces saw higher spending in new housing construction compared with the same month a year earlier. Ontario posted the greatest increase for a total of $1.8 billion in spending. However, Alberta (-$52.7 million) and Newfoundland and Labrador (-$6.7 million) posted declines.

Ontario saw increases for all types of dwellings except apartments, which fell 3.6% compared with March 2016.

Investment in new housing construction in Manitoba rose 39.2% year over year to $116.1 million. This gain was mainly attributable to higher investments in single-family dwellings (51.6%), although increases were posted for all dwelling types other than double dwellings.

Quebec was the lone province to have posted increases for all types of dwellings. Investments in apartment building construction accounted for 56.1% of total investments, the highest proportion among the provinces.

FULL DOCUMENT: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170519/dq170519c-eng.pdf

StatCan. 2017-05-19. Pipeline transportation of oil and other liquid petroleum products, March 2017

Closing Inventories of crude oil and equivalent products
12.4 million cubic metres
March 2017

Crude oil receipts

Oil pipelines received 21.2 million cubic metres of crude oil and equivalent products from Canadian fields and plants in March, up 10.3% compared to the same month in 2016. Of this total, 20.6 million cubic metres (97%) were received from Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Chart 1   Chart 1: Pipeline receipts of crude oil from fields and plants
Pipeline receipts of crude oil from fields and plants

Chart 1: Pipeline receipts of crude oil from fields and plants

Crude oil deliveries

In March, pipelines delivered 7.2 million cubic metres of oil to Canadian refineries, a 3.5% decrease compared with the same month in 2016. Just under two-thirds (61%) of crude oil was sent to refineries in the western provinces, while the remainder (39%) was delivered to Ontario and Quebec refineries.

Exports and imports

Oil pipelines exported 14.8 million cubic metres of crude oil and equivalent products to the United States. March exports were 4.8% higher than the same month in 2016, and crude oil imports rose 9.4% to 2.3 million cubic metres.

Chart 2   Chart 2: Exports and imports of crude oil by pipeline
Exports and imports of crude oil by pipeline

Chart 2: Exports and imports of crude oil by pipeline

Closing inventories

Closing inventories of crude oil and equivalent products totaled 12.4 million cubic metres, up 1.7% compared with the same month in 2016.

Chart 3   Chart 3: Pipeline closing inventories of crude oil & equivalent products
Pipeline closing inventories of crude oil & equivalent products

Chart 3: Pipeline closing inventories of crude oil & equivalent products

FULL DOCUMENT: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170519/dq170519e-eng.pdf


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BOMBARDIER

Global Affairs Canada. May 18, 2017. Statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs on the U.S. Department of Commerce initiation of investigations into large civil aircraft from Canada

Ottawa, Ontario - The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement:

“The aerospace industries of Canada and the United States are highly integrated and support good, middle class jobs on both sides of the border.

“We strongly disagree with the U.S. Department of Commerce’s decision to initiate anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations into imports of Canadian large civil aircraft.

“Boeing’s petition is clearly aimed at blocking Bombardier’s new aircraft, the CSeries, from entering the U.S. market. Boeing admits it does not compete with exports of the CS100 aircraft, so it is all the more difficult to see these allegations as legitimate, particularly with the dominance of the Boeing 737 family in the U.S. market.

“Furthermore, many of the CSeries suppliers are based in the United States. Components for the CSeries are supplied by American companies, directly supporting high-paying jobs in many U.S. states, including Connecticut, Florida, New Jersey, Washington, New York, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Pennsylvania and Colorado.

“Canada is reviewing current military procurement that relates to Boeing.

 “Our government will defend the interests of Bombardier, the Canadian aerospace industry, and our aerospace workers.”

The Globe and Mail. May 19, 2017. Quebec open to more investors for Bombardier’s C Series, Couillard says
NICOLAS VAN PRAET

MONTREAL — Quebec says it is open to other investors in Bombardier Inc.’s C Series under certain conditions as speculation mounts about a possible Chinese investment in the airliner program.

“Any partnership attractive to Quebec that maintains the C Series head office and engineering jobs at home will be welcome,” Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard told reporters in Jerusalem, where he was taking part in a trade mission to Israel.

New questions are being raised about Bombardier plans for the C Series following a report the Canadian company held talks with Chinese state-owned aerospace manufacturer Comac about an investment in the fledgling aircraft program.

Comac is working with at least one bank on a tie-up that could see it make an investment in Bombardier’s commercial aerospace arm or take a stake in the C Series program, the Financial Times said Thursday, citing unnamed sources.

“Everything is on the table,” the newspaper quoted a source as saying. The companies have been in talks for some time although no decision is imminent, the paper reported.

Bombardier has declined to comment on the report, calling it market rumour.

Quebec made a $1-billion (U.S.) investment in the C Series last year that saved program and the plane maker from possible collapse. At the time, Montreal-based Bombardier was grappling with a cash crunch as it tried to get the 100 to 150-seat airliner to market following a two year delay and rising costs.

The C Series has since started commercial service, earning rave early reviews for its performance. The key challenge for Bombardier now is to hold the line on the aircraft’s pricing. Like other manufacturers introducing new planes, it has offered steep discounts to early buyers but will have to win better terms on new orders to boost profitability.

Quebec now owns a 49.5-per-cent stake in a limited partnership that controls the C Series program. That investment is now the subject of a trade complaint by Boeing Co. Bombardier owns 50.5 per cent and holds operational control of the program.

In exchange for the cash infusion, Bombardier agreed to maintain the strategic, financial and operational headquarters of the limited partnership in Quebec for at least 20 years. Under the deal, “assembly, manufacturing, engineering services and research and development activities” of the partnership will also remain in Quebec for the same length of time, according to a Bombardier statement explaining the terms.

Mr. Couillard said Quebec has a say in any new C Series investor Bombardier brings into the fold. “There cannot be agreement without our involvement,” the premier said. His comments were reported by Montreal’s La Presse newspaper, which had a journalist on site.

Bombardier and COMAC signed a strategic co-operation agreement in 2012 that saw the two manufacturers collaborate on common systems for the C919 and C Series planes. The partnership included working together on cockpit and electrical systems as well as the supply chain.

REUTERS. May 18, 2017. Canada links fighter jet deal to Boeing's dumping claims
By Alwyn Scott and Alana Wise

SEATTLE (Reuters) - Canada suggested on Thursday it could scrap plans to buy Boeing Co fighter jets if the United States backed Boeing's claims that Canadian plane maker Bombardier Inc dumped jetliners in the U.S. market.

"Canada is reviewing current military procurement that relates to Boeing," Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said in a statement released late on Thursday.

Canada "strongly disagrees" with the U.S. Commerce Department decision to investigate Boeing's claims that Bombardier sold planes below cost in the United States and benefited unfairly from Canadian government subsidies, the statement added.

The remarks came after the U.S. Commerce Department launched an investigation into Boeing's claims, and pointed to the potential for rising trade tension between the two countries. Boeing and Canada are in talks over the purchase of 18 Boeing Super Hornet fighters this year or in early 2018.

President Donald Trump has called for a strong stronger stance on trade with his "America First" policy that got a boost on Thursday when Commerce formally announced its intent to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The Commerce probe in Boeing's case, which was expected, parallels a probe by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) into Boeing's allegations that Bombardier sold 75 CSeries planes to Delta Air Lines Inc last year at a price well below cost. Bombardier has rejected the allegations and the two sides clashed at an ITC hearing on Thursday on whether the companies' competing plane models are even comparable.

"While assuring the case is decided strictly on a full and fair assessment of the facts, we will do everything in our power to stand up for American companies and their workers," Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a statement.

"ISN'T MUCH COMPETITION"

The Commerce investigation was announced as USITC staff heard arguments on Thursday from representatives for Boeing, Bombardier and Delta Air Lines Inc, which has sided with Bombardier against Boeing.

The former head of Boeing's commercial aircraft unit told the panel that government subsidies for Bombardier allowed the Canadian company to sell small, 100- to 150-seat jet liners at prices Boeing could not match.

"It is untenable for us to continue competing with government subsidized competitors" Boeing Vice Chairman Raymond L. Conner said. "Bombardier is very close to forcing us out of (the 100- to 150-seat market) altogether."

Bombardier representative Peter Lichtenbaum countered that Boeing's claims were overblown.

"Boeing has not suffered any lost sales or lost revenues due to competition with Bombardier," he told the panel. "There just isn't much competition between Bombardier's CSeries and Boeing's products."

Delta agreed last year to buy up to 75 Bombardier CSeries planes, a deal worth an estimated $5.6 billion based on the list price of about $71.8 million.

How U.S. regulators decide the dispute will have a significant impact on the market for small, regional jetliners in North America and globally, and on U.S.-Canadian relations.

The CSeries is critical to Bombardier's future. If the United States finds that Canadian subsidies for Bombardier have harmed Boeing and imposes duties, demand for the CSeries in the United States could suffer and airlines could pay more.

The disagreement between the two planemakers also adds frost to an increasingly chilly U.S.-Canadian trade relationship, along with disputes over Canadian softwood lumber and U.S. milk protein products.

Commerce said that if the investigations determine that CSeries planes were dumped in the U.S. market or unfairly subsidized, it would collect duties equal to the value of the benefits. Those duties would increase the cost of the Bombardier planes ordered by Delta.

(Reporting by Alwyn Scott, Alana Wise and David Lawder and Allison Lampert; Editing by Andrew Hay and Bill Trott)

REUTERS. May 19, 2017. Boeing military arm frets over Canada jets threat, seeks government talks: source

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Boeing Co's BA.N military sales division is worried about Canada's threat to scrap the proposed purchase of 18 Super Hornet jets and is seeking talks with government officials, a source familiar with the situation said on Friday.

Canada suggested on Thursday it could ditch its plans to buy the jets if the United States backed Boeing's claims that Canadian plane maker Bombardier Inc (BBDb.TO: Quote) dumped jetliners in the U.S. market.

(Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Bernard Orr)


________________


NAFTA

The Globe and Mail. May 18, 2017. Canada threatens U.S. over aerospace as NAFTA talks loom
STEVEN CHASE, ADRIAN MORROW AND GREG KEENAN

OTTAWA/WASHINGTON/TORONTO — The Trudeau government is threatening to jettison a multibillion-dollar purchase of Boeing Super Hornet fighters if the United States proceeds with damaging trade action against Montreal-based Bombardier Inc. – a warning shot fired the same day the Trump administration officially started the countdown to the renegotiation of the North American free-trade agreement.

Freeland says reworked NAFTA could have labour, environmental benefits (The Canadian Press)
The looming trade battle ratchets up the tension between Ottawa and Washington as the two sides gear up for NAFTA talks set to kick off in mid-August, and signals Canada’s willingness to stand up to President Donald Trump.

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced Thursday it will investigate accusations from Chicago-based Boeing Co. that sales of Bombardier’s new C-series jetliner constitute dumping into the U.S. market, because the plane is subsidized by the Canadian and Quebec governments. The investigation could lead to punitive U.S. duties being slapped on sales of the jet as soon as July.

Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland promptly fired back.

In a blunt statement, she said that Boeing’s complaint is aimed at blocking the jet from the U.S. market. And she warned that Boeing’s attempts to sell fighter jets to the Canadian government could be at risk as a result.

“Canada is reviewing current military procurement that relates to Boeing,” Ms. Freeland said. “Our government will defend the interests of Bombardier, the Canadian aerospace industry and our aerospace workers.”

The federal government has started negotiations this year to buy 18 Boeing Super Hornet fighter planes as an interim measure to bolster the capacity of the Royal Canadian Air Force as it seeks a longer-term solution to replace its fleet of aging CF-18 warplanes.

The dogfight comes a month after Mr. Trump blasted Canada’s softwood lumber and dairy industries for “taking advantage” of the United States under NAFTA and considered – but ultimately decided against – triggering an American withdrawal from the deal.

Earlier Thursday, United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer formally gave Congress 90 days’ notice of the administration’s intent to reopen NAFTA. His one-and-a-half page letter was short on specific negotiating objectives, sticking instead to broad themes. It steered clear of the protectionist language that permeated an earlier draft circulated in March.

The letter listed the digital economy, intellectual property protections, labour and environmental standards as possible areas of discussion. It said the United States will look for better enforcement of the provisions of the deal. “We note that NAFTA was negotiated 25 years ago, and while our economy and businesses have changed considerably over that period, NAFTA has not,” the letter read. “Many chapters are outdated and do not reflect modern standards.”

The earlier draft, by comparison, suggested that Buy-American policies and tax provisions meant to favour U.S. goods could be among the things demanded by negotiators. It also floated abolishing NAFTA trade panels – which have previously ruled in Canada’s favour in the softwood dispute.

The Canadian and Mexican governments, as well as business groups, publicly embraced the renegotiations Thursday – even though officials have privately conceded they would rather NAFTA be left the way it is.

The aim is to divert the talks into a discussion over how to improve the deal, such as by adding new provisions for e-commerce and strengthening environmental and labour regulations, while leaving the integrated market intact and pushing back against Mr. Trump’s protectionist inclinations.

“Two areas that I think could very usefully benefit from modernization in NAFTA are the labour and environment chapters,” Ms. Freeland told reporters.

Mexican Foreign Secretary Luis Videgaray, speaking after a meeting with his American counterpart Rex Tillerson in Washington on Thursday, took a similar tack: “This is a 25-year-old agreement … The world has changed.”

Perrin Beatty, CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said Canada will have to hold firm against Mr. Trump – but must also bring its own demands to the table with the goal of improving the deal. Ottawa should push for new NAFTA provisions that would make cross-border business even easier, such as more digital trade, labour mobility and regulatory co-operation, Mr. Beatty said.

“Nobody is under the illusion that these negotiations won’t be difficult. The government has to be prepared to defend Canada’s interests,” he said in an interview. “But it should go in with its own agenda, it should go in with optimism and confidence – it is possible to get a trade agreement that is better.”

The chief executive officers of two Canadian companies that have a big stake in the integrated North American economy staying that way said this week that they believe renegotiation of the trade agreement will not lead to wholesale changes.

“Mr. Trump is a businessman,” Linda Hasenfratz, president of auto parts maker Linamar Corp. said. “He will make fact-based decisions and it’s a matter of putting those facts in front of him.”

Those facts relate to the negative impact that drastic changes in NAFTA would have on the auto industry, which relies strongly on duty-free trade of parts and vehicles among the three countries.

Keith Creel, chief executive officer of Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd., said he thinks Mr. Trump’s call to revamp NAFTA is aimed at Mexico.

“I think he’s a negotiator,” Mr. Creel told The Globe and Mail earlier this week. “I think he’s trying to create leverage and at the end of the day if he does what is right for the country he understands how critical Canada is as a trading partner to the U.S.”

Still, the battle over the fighter jets signals that neither side is afraid to put its elbows out as the negotiations draw near.

Ms. Freeland noted any pain served on Bombardier by Washington would hurt Americans because many companies supplying the C-series jet program are based in the United States. “Components for the C-series are supplied by American companies, directly supporting high-paying jobs in many U.S. states, including Connecticut, Florida, New Jersey, Washington, New York, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Pennsylvania and Colorado.”

The initial purchase of these Super Hornets could cost $2-billion, but their maintenance, support and upgrades could cost as much as $10-billion over the full period of their use. That could mean billions of dollars more in parts and support for Boeing beyond the initial capital investment.

Analysts had been warning that Boeing’s actions against Bombardier could come back to bite the company, especially as it relates to the business it does with the Canadian government.

“Boeing is now part of Trump’s anti-Canada jihad,” Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group said in a recent note.

Boeing has also supported a Republican plan to impose a border tax on imports – a proposal that would hurt Canadian firms shipping products to the United States.

Renegotiating or pulling out of NAFTA was one of Mr. Trump’s central campaign pledges. He blames the deal for hollowing out the U.S. manufacturing sector in the Rust Belt.

Congressional notification, a legal requirement before talks can start, was delayed as the Senate dragged its feet on confirming Mr. Lighthizer as Trade Representative. Mr. Lighthizer was finally confirmed last week, sworn in Monday and has spent the last three days in meetings with members of Congress.

With a report from Nicolas Van Praet in Montreal

SCOTIA BANK. ECONOMICS. ANALYSIS. May 18, 2017. NAFTA: US to Pursue ‘Tweaks’ to Modernize North American Trade Pact

FULL DOCUMENT: http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/scpt/gbm/scotiaeconomics63/2017-05-18_I&V.pdf

_________________


TOURISM

The Globe and Mail. May 19, 2017. Canadian winery owners face closed trial in China
ROBERT FIFE AND STEVEN CHASE

OTTAWA — Charges of smuggling against a Canadian winery owner who has been locked up in a Chinese jail for more than a year are trumped up, his lawyers say, accusing China of criminalizing a customs dispute, one that could have far-reaching consequences for an eventual bilateral free-trade deal.

John Chang, who owns wineries in British Columbia and Ontario, will face a closed-door trial at the Shanghai High People’s Court next Friday, as will his wife, Allison Lu. Ms. Lu was released from jail in January, but is barred from leaving China and must report regularly to Chinese authorities. The couple’s Canadian passports have been seized.

China’s legal system has a 99.6-per-cent conviction rate, and the couples’ family fears Mr. Chang and Ms. Lu could receive lengthy prison sentences over what is a commercial dispute.

The legal battle casts doubt on China’s willingness to treat Canadian investors fairly – a standard foundation of any free-trade deal.

The Globe and Mail has obtained a copy of a brief prepared for the Trudeau government by the law firm Fasken Martineau – which represents the family – that takes the Canadian government to task for doing little to get Mr. Chang and his wife released.

“The arrest and continued detention of two Canadian business people and citizens, Mr. Chang and Ms. Lu, is on its face outrageous and unconscionable,” the brief says. It added the situation is urgent because Mr. Chang’s physical and mental health are deteriorating.

China has charged Mr. Chang and Ms. Lu with “smuggling of common goods” for allegedly underreporting the value of the wines they exported to China.

The trial of Ms. Lu and Mr. Chang, who has been imprisoned for more than 13 months, takes place as the federal government pursues exploratory talks on a free-trade deal with Beijing. Prime Minster Justin Trudeau has made a bilateral trade pact with China a cornerstone of Liberal foreign policy.

But Fasken Martineau argued in its presentation to the government that expanding trade with China can work only if Canadian businesses can trust Chinese authorities will treat them fairly.

“It is imperative that Canadians seeking to do business with China can do so in reliance on agreed upon rules and basic principles of justice, both substantive and procedural,” the brief stated, and noted the charges against the Canadian couple are “particularly troubling now, at a time when the government of Canada is consulting Canadians on a bilateral free trade deal with China.”

The law firm has asked International Trade Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould to engage their Chinese counterparts to secure the immediate release of Mr. Chang from prison and to allow the couple to return to Canada “pending a resolution of the customs valuation dispute.”

David Mulroney, a former Canadian ambassador to China, said what happened to Mr. Chang reminds him of issues he encountered during his posting in Beijing.

“When I was in China, we were concerned about the disturbing tendency of local officials to transform any commercial dispute between Canadian and Chinese business partners into a criminal prosecution of the Canadian,” Mr. Mulroney said.

“We saw this as an attempt to intimidate the Canadian into making some kind of confession.”

The former diplomat says this tendency is an example of “how the playing field in China is tilted against foreign passport holders and how tenuous and conditional Chinese legal protections actually are.”

Liberal MP Omar Alghabra, the parliamentary secretary for consular issues at Global Affairs, told The Globe that Ottawa is seeking to get Mr. Chang and his wife out of China and have reached out to high-ranking Chinese officials.

“Economic cases have a different flavour than criminal cases, but they are done within our consular division in consultation with the Chinese government,” he said. “We are certainly having consultations with the Chinese government and with the family about this case.”

Mr. Alghabra said he was unable to “give any prediction of what might happen” at the couple’s trial next Friday “but we are taking this case very seriously and doing what we can to assist the family and help resolve this case.”

Fasken Martineau says this is a customs dispute, and China’s conduct is a violation of its international trade obligations under the World Trade Organization Valuation Agreement.

Under international trade law, disagreement over the valuation of imported goods is supposed to be resolved under the agreement.

Instead, China is using the state’s police power – arrest, detention and eventual prosecution – to address what is fundamentally a trade and customs dispute.

“The excessive power of China Customs to unilaterally jail the owners of a reputable Canadian business on a mere allegation of non-compliance with custom valuation rules, and to detain them in jail for more than one year without hearing or any meaningful recourse to justice, is a gross violation of personal liberty and security,” the brief said.

“In Canada, the actions of China Customs would be a clear violation of Section 9 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, which guarantees the right against arbitrary detainment and imprisonment.”

Dan Brock, a lawyer for Fasken Martineau, confirmed the law firm had prepared the brief for Ottawa but would provide no further comment.

Lulu Island Winery, one of three in Canada owned by Mr. Chang and Ms. Lu, said on Tuesday it hopes Ottawa can find a way to bring them home.

“We have been without our founders … for more than one year, and remain anxious for their safe return to Canada. Lulu Island denies the allegations made by the Chinese Customs Authority, and respectfully requests that China uphold its international trade obligations,” the winery said in a statement.

“As a Canadian company we have let our federal government take the lead in resolving this matter, and we patiently await progress.”

Conservative MP Gerry Ritz called Mr. Chang “a fantastic guy and a great entrepreneur” and criticized the Canadian government for not pressing hard enough to win the couple’s freedom.

“Nobody is taking it seriously. It is disconcerting,” he said. “Global Affairs is saying it is all consular and they are not going to do anything and that is unfortunate. It is a business side. It is trade. It is not criminal.”

NDP MP Nathan Cullen said the case of Mr. Chang and his wife should give the Liberal government serious pause about concluding a free-trade deal with a country that uses its judiciary to resolve commercial disputes.

“The more times China acts in aggressive ways toward people from other countries in ways that would seem to be unfair in our country, the less and less likely they will have the Canadian public onside for a trade deal,” he said. “What Trudeau is offering is that closer ties to China means greater influence with China on cases like this.”

Mr. Chang, who was born in Taiwan, was named an RBC Top 25 Canadian Immigrant award winner in 2015. He came to Canada in 2000 and built up a wine business with principal exports to the Asian market.

Since his arrest on March 25, 2016, Mr. Chang has received one visit every three months from Canadian consular officials, but the law firm said in the brief it was advised “the Government of Canada, including the Trade Commissioner Service, cannot interfere in the judicial affairs of another country.”

The wine business – with wineries in Richmond and Kelowna, B.C., and Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ont., has been run by the couple’s 23-year-old daughter Amy, in the meantime.

China’s embassy in Ottawa said it had no “specific information” about Mr. Chang’s case and that Canadians should be assured “China is a nation with rule of law and China’s law-enforcement departments handle cases strictly according to law.”

________________


HOUSING BURBLE

BLOOMBERG. 2017 M05 19. HSBC Canada Not Interested in Home Capital Assets, CEO Says
by Doug Alexander

  • London bank has history in Canada of rescuing troubled lenders
  • Stuart says bank doesn’t want to return to subprime loans
  • Home Capital Turnaround Seen as Perilous, Getting Harder

One of the last times a Canadian bank ran into trouble, HSBC Holdings Plc came to the rescue. Don’t expect history to repeat itself in the case of Home Capital Group Inc.

HSBC Canada, which leapfrogged small Canadian competitors by acquiring failing Bank of British Columbia in 1986, wouldn’t be interested in Home Capital if the embattled mortgage lender put itself up for sale or sold off assets such as its mortgage portfolio.

“This isn’t something for us right now," Sandra Stuart, chief executive officer of HSBC’s Canadian unit said Thursday in an interview in her Vancouver office. “We were in the subprime business and we had a subprime portfolio that performed very well, and we took a decision to exit it. We understand deeply what it takes to run a subprime book, and at this stage I would say we’re not interested."

Home Capital has been seeking to stabilize itself after losing almost C$1.9 billion ($1.4 billion) in high-interest deposits since the end of March, forcing it to secure a costly C$2 billion rescue loan from a pension fund. The company also hired investment banks to advise on financing and “strategic options" that may include a sale of the company or assets.

Other Canadian financial firms earlier this month ruled out an outright purchase of Home Capital, including Canadian Western Bank and alternative lender Equitable Group Inc. HSBC’s case is noteworthy because of the bank’s history in Canada.

Bank Fails

Stuart has first-hand experience with a bank failure. She was a teller of Bank of British Columbia in Vancouver’s suburb of Burnaby when the lender ran into trouble. She became a part of HSBC when the Bank of British Columbia was acquired by the London-based lender in November 1986.

“Reflecting on it, it happened so quickly," Stuart said. “I remember when HSBC made the purchase and how exhilarating that was to have a foreign bank take over a little British Columbia bank and absolutely overnight the prospect for the whole business changed. It was really exiting."

Bank of British Columbia’s woes followed the failures of Canadian Commercial Bank and Northland Bank of Canada in 1985, when rising interest rates and a slumping dollar caused their real estate and energy-heavy loan books to deteriorate, according to a Bank of Canada report. The failure of two small Western Canadian lenders eroded the confidence of other banks that relied on wholesale deposit funding, leaving Bank of British Columbia unable to weather the storm.

The B.C. bank was run at the time by Edgar Kaiser Jr., an industrialist whose holdings included Canada’s biggest coal company, and the Denver Broncos of the National Football League, according to a New York Times obituary published when he died in 2012.

Expansion Plan

The B.C. purchase bolstered HSBC’s Canadian presence five years after entering the country, and the deal became the first of a string of purchases over 22 years in the bank’s strategy to expand across the nation.

HSBC Canada hasn’t seen much impact from Home Capital’s woes, Stuart said.

“If anything, we’ve seen our deposits increase over the last little while," Stuart said, adding that she doesn’t expect Home Capital’s troubles will spread to other financial firms. “It’s a C$20 billion book, it’s going to play out as it’s going to play out. We don’t feel any contagion to us, so I’m suspecting it’s probably going to be isolated."

Home Capital rose a second straight day, adding 5.9 percent to C$9.39 in Toronto. The stock is still down 70 percent on the year.

CIBC. ECONOMICS. ANALYSIS. May 19, 2017. A Very Different Housing Issue
by Andrew Grantham

FULL DOCUMENT: https://economics.cibccm.com/economicsweb/cds?ID=3097&TYPE=EC_PDF

________________

LGCJ.:

BRASIL


DÓLAR

BACEN. PORTAL G1. 19/05/2017. Dólar cai mais de 2% após fechar na maior alta em 18 anos. Na véspera, a moeda norte-americana subiu 8,15%, a R$ 3,3890 na venda.
Por G1

O dólar abriu o dia em queda nesta sexta-feira (19), após fechar na maior alta diária em 18 anos na véspera, diante do pânico dos mercados em relação a denúncias envolvendo o presidente Michel Temer. O movimento é de correção e também sente os efeitos da forte intervenção do Banco Central.
Às 10h09 a moeda norte-americana operava em queda de 2,47%%, cotada a R$ 3,3052 na venda, após fechar a R$ 3,3890 na sessão anterior. Veja a cotação.
Depois de ter sido atingido por denúncias, feitas pelo empresário Joesley Batista, da JBS, para comprar o silêncio do ex-deputado Eduardo Cunha, o Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) autorizou abertura de investigação contra o presidente Temer.
Para Alexandre Wolwacz, da L&S Investimentos, o recuo observado hoje no início dos negócios é natural e não tem relação com o conteúdo dos aúdios das conversas entre Temer e Joesley, divulgados na noite anterior.
"Ontem o dólar se afastou muito do preço médio dos últimos 30 dias. Quando isso acontece, é normal essa correção. O mercado ainda não teve tempo para digerir os áudios", disse ao G1.
Segundo ele, a moeda deve buscar um patamar em torno de R$ 3,22 nos próximos dias. "Mas isso [o movimento de ajuste] fica completamente anulado se o dólar romper a faixa dos R$ 3,41", completou.
Intervenção do BC
O BC manteve a oferta de até 8 mil swaps cambiais tradicionais, equivalentes à venda futura de moedas, para rolagem do vencimento de junho. Mas também anunciou que fará leilões diários de swaps cambiais até o próximo dia 23, ofertando até 40 mil novos contratos em cada atuação que decidir. Entenda o que são swaps.
Além do BC, o Tesouro Nacional também anunciou intervenção em razão da volatilidade no mercado e fará leilões nesta sessão, também até o dia 23, de compra e venda de títulos.
Véspera
Na véspera, o dólar subiu 8,15% e fechou a R$ 3,3890 na venda. Na máxima do dia, a moeda foi a R$ 3,44, segundo a Reuters, com o mercado reagindo reagindo à forte turbulência política iniciada na noite de quarta-feira (17), quando o jornal "O Globo" publicou notícia de que o dono da empresa JBS gravou o presidente da república, Michel Temer, dando aval para comprar silêncio do ex-presidente da Câmara Eduardo Cunha.





BACEN. POTAL G1. 18/05/2017. Dólar tem a maior alta em 18 anos, em dia de nervosismo pelo cenário político. A moeda norte-americana subiu 8,15%, a R$ 3,389 na venda. Este é o maior valor de fechamento desde dezembro de 2016.
Por Karina Trevizan, G1

Dólar teve nesta quinta-feira (18) a maior alta em mais de 18 anos. Na máxima do dia, o dólar foi a R$ 3,44, segundo a Reuters, com o mercado reagindo reagindo à forte turbulência política iniciada na noite de quarta-feira, quando o jornal "O Globo" publicou notícia de que o dono da empresa JBS gravou o presidente da república, Michel Temer, dando aval para comprar silêncio do ex-presidente da Câmara, Eduardo Cunha.
A moeda norte-americana subiu 8,15%, a R$ 3,389 na venda. Veja a cotação do dólar hoje. Este é o maior valor de fechamento desde dezembro de 2016, quando, no dia 16, o dólar terminou o dia vendido a R$ 3,3906. Segundo a agência Reuters, a alta desta quinta foi a maior desde o início de 1999, quando houve a maxidesvalorização do câmbio.
Homem conta notas de dólar em casa de câmbio no Cairo, Egito. (Foto: Reuters) Homem conta notas de dólar em casa de câmbio no Cairo, Egito. (Foto: Reuters)
Homem conta notas de dólar em casa de câmbio no Cairo, Egito. (Foto: Reuters)
Nesta quinta, o dólar para turismo chegou a ser vendido acima de R$ 4. Algumas casas de câmbio interromperam a venda de moedas pela manhã, enquanto outras colocaram os preços nas alturas, por causa da falta de parâmetros para as cotações em dia de turbulência do mercado.
O economista Roberto Troster credita a forte alta desta quinta-feira não apenas às incertezas geradas pelas turbulências políticas, mas também ao chamado “efeito manada”. “Não existe nada mais covarde que o dinheiro, e há uma coisa que se chama comportamento em manada”, afirma. Ele explica que a primeira reação dos investidores é comprar dólar. “Primeiro porque as pessoas buscam refúgio no dólar e segundo porque os investidores estrangeiros, que entendem menos de Brasil, estão vendendo suas ações. Essa saída de dólares da Bovespa afeta o câmbio.”
Troster diz que “tanto a Bovespa quanto o dólar devem continuar nervosos nas próximas semana”, mas avalia que do ponto de vista econômico a tendência de recuperação da economia, ainda que lenta, está mantida. “As reformas são um projeto do país, não do governo. Tudo indica que, ainda que num ritmo mais devagar, isso vai continuar.” Para o analista, “a turbulência é grande, mas o impacto na economia é menor”.
O economista chefe da Gradual Investimentos, André Perfeito, diz que o mercado já está precificando a saída de Temer da presidência, na espera apenas de detalhes de como será a transição. “A discussão do mercado agora é como vai se permitir um ciclo de transição que permita a continuidade das reformas econômicas no Brasil.”
O economista chefe da Infinity Asset, Jason Vieira, disse que o discurso de Michel Temer nesta tarde reforçou o clima de incertezas no mercado sobre o andamento das reformas econômicas. Em seu pronunciamento, Temer disse que não renunciaria ao cargo de presidente da República.
“Na verdade, nós estamos mais em dúvida do que antes. O mercado sentiu um posicionamento seguro no discurso, o que abre a primeira dúvida: ele está fazendo um movimento de autodefesa?”, diz Vieira. “O segundo ponto é: se ele [Temer] estiver certo, como é que vai ser no futuro com o PSDB pulando fora do barco rápido como pulou?”
Segundo Vieira, o ponto do discurso que agradou os investidores “talvez seja a defesa das reformas”. “É a principal preocupação. O mercado não está preocupado com a questão política. O mercado quer saber se as reformas vão passar, se os juros vão cair.”

BACEN. REUTERS. 18/05/2017. Dólar tem maior alta desde 1999, a 8,15%, e encosta em R$3,40 após denúncias contra Temer
Por Claudia Violante

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - O dólar encerrou esta quinta-feira com a maior alta em mais de 18 anos, acima de 8 por cento e aproximando-se do patamar de 3,40 reais, depois de denúncias envolvendo o presidente Michel Temer que alimentaram percepções de que as reformas serão afetadas e, consequentemente, a recuperação da economia.

O dólar avançou 8,15 por cento, a 3,3890 reais na venda, maior alta desde o início de 1999, quando houve a maxidesvalorização do câmbio. O salto do dia acabou varrendo a baixa do dólar acumulada no ano até a véspera, de 3,45 por cento.

Na máxima do dia, o dólar foi a 3,4400 reais, mas num pregão que teve como característica o baixo volume por conta dos temores dos investidores.

O dólar futuro subia cerca de 8 por cento, a 3,40 reais no final da tarde, depois de ter atingido mais cedo a máxima para o pregão, a 3,4175 reais.

"Tudo o que está ruim ainda pode piorar, é incerteza absoluta", afirmou o gerente de tesouraria do Bank of China, Jayro Rezende.

O nervosismo pairou desde a abertura, tanto que os investidores evitaram tomar posições e o mercado à vista demorou a ter negócios. Diante disso, o Banco Central fez várias intervenções.

Na noite passada, o jornal O Globo noticiou que Joesley Batista, um dos controladores do frigorífico JBS, gravou Temer concordando com pagamentos para manter o silêncio do ex-deputado Eduardo Cunha, que está preso.

Assim que a notícia chegou ao Congresso, a oposição não perdeu tempo para pedir o impeachment de Temer. Especialistas afirmaram que o governo foi fortemente abalado e, assim, as reformas consideradas essenciais, sobretudo a da Previdência, para recuperar a economia serão afetadas.

Diante da forte turbulência na cena política brasileira --que afetou até ativos no exterior, como os Treasuries norte-americanos--, o Tesouro Nacional e o BC atuaram.

O BC fez vendeu, por meio de leilões, 80 mil novos swaps cambiais tradicionais, equivalentes à venda futura de dólares, além de outros 8 mil papéis para a rolagem dos swaps que vencem em junho, no total de 4,435 bilhões de dólares.

Além dos leilões de swap pelo BC, o Tesouro suspendeu o leilão de venda de LTN e LFT programado para esta sessão e anunciou três novos leilões de compra e venda de títulos para os próximos dias.

Em setembro de 2015, BC e Tesouro atuaram conjuntamente para conter a forte volatilidade nos mercados financeiros, parceria adotada novamente no fim de 2016 após a eleição do presidente norte-americano Donald Trump.

Nas últimas semanas, os mercados financeiros estavam vivendo uma espécie de lua-de-mel com o governo Temer, apostando que ele conseguiria angariar votos suficientes para aprovar as reformas no Congresso Nacional. O dólar, nesta semana, chegou a fechar abaixo do patamar de 3,10 reais.

Além disso, a economia vinha dando alguns sinais de recuperação, depois de dois anos seguidos de forte recessão. A inflação também vinha perdendo fôlego e possibilitando que o BC fizesse reduções importantes na taxa básica de juros, o que tem potencial para estimular o consumo.


BOVESPA


BOVESPA. PORTAL G1. 18/05/2017. Bovespa despenca

A Bovespa fechou na maior baixa diária em quase 9 anos nesta quinta, após ter os negócios suspensos por 30 minutos pela manhã.
O Ibovespa, principal indicador da bolsa, caiu 8,8%, a 61.597 pontos. Veja a cotação. Foi a maior queda diária desde o dia 22 de outubro de 2008, quando a bolsa caiu 10,18%, reagindo à crise financeira internacional. É também o menor patamar desde janeiro deste ano.



Intervenção do BC no câmbio
Em meio à forte turbulência, o Banco Central anunciou nova intervenção no mercado, com leilão de swaps tradicionais, equivalentes à venda futura de dólares, e que não eram voltados para rolagem de contratos já existentes.
"Depois do pânico inicial, o mercado está aguardando novos desdobramentos. Os leilões do BC aliviaram suavemente as cotações", afirmou à Reuters o operador da Advanced Corretora, Alessandro Faganello.
Segundo a agência, o BC vendeu integralmente, em dois leilões, a oferta integral de até 40 mil swaps tradicionais. O BC também vendeu a oferta total de 8 mil swaps para a rolagem do vencimento de junho, no valor total de US$ 4,435 bilhões.
Entenda: swap cambial, leilão de linha e venda direta de dólares
Em novembro do ano passado, o BC também havia feito oferta adicional de swap para tentar conter a volatilidade do mercado após a vitória de Donald Trump à Presidência dos Estados Unidos.
Mais cedo, o Tesouro Nacional e o BC publicaram notas afirmando que estão atentos ao mercado e que atuarão para manter sua plena funcionalidade. O Tesouro suspendeu o leilão de venda de LTN e LFT programado para esta sessão.

BOVESPA. PETROBRÁS. 18/05/2017. Ação da Petrobras tem sua maior queda diária desde 1999. Levantamento foi feito pela Economatica. Bradesco teve o pior dia desde 1998.
Por Karina Trevizan, G1

Com queda de 15,7% nesta quinta-feira (18), as ações preferenciais Petrobras tiveram a maior desvalorização diária desde 1999, segundo levantamento divulgado pela Economatica. Já os papéis preferenciais tiveram seu pior dia desde 2014, com desvalorização de 11,3%.
As ações preferenciais são aquelas que dão ao acionista preferência na distribuição de dividendos, enquanto as ordinárias dão direito a voto em assembleias da empresa.
A queda aconteceu em dia turbulento para os mercados, após reportagem publicada no site do jornal "O Globo" nesta quarta (17) informar que Joesley Batista, dono do grupo JBS, entregou à Procuradoria Geral da República (PGR) gravação de conversa na qual ele e Temer falaram sobre a compra do silêncio do deputado cassado Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ), preso na Operação Lava Jato.
A ação da JBS perdeu 9,6% nesta quinta, o maior recuo desde março de 2016, ainda segundo a Economatica.
O levantamento mostra ainda que, entre as ações com mais peso no Ibovespa, os papéis do Bradesco e do Itaú Unibanco também tiveram dia de forte desvalorização. O papel preferencial do Bradesco caiu 13,1%, em seu pior desempenho diário desde 1998. Já o preferencial caiu 13%, também o maior recuo desde 1998.
A ação preferencial do Itaú Unibanco caiu 12% nesta quinta, a maior queda desde 2008. A ordinária recuou 9,9%, na maior variação negativa desde 2011. Ainda no setor de bancos, as ações do Banco do Brasil tiveram queda de 19,9%, a maior desde março de 2016.
A Cemig, que no início do pregão liderou as perdas e chegou a cair mais de 40%, terminou o dia em queda de 20,4%, na maior perda diária desde fevereiro de 2016.
Bovespa despenca
O mercado financeiro brasileiro teve um de fortes oscilações em meio à crise política. Nesta quinta, o dólar subiu 8,15%, a R$ 3,389 na venda, na maior valorização diária em 18 anos. A Bovespa também foi impactada pelas incertezas, e terminou o dia em queda de 8,8%, a 61.597 pontos - a maior baixa diária em quase 9 anos. Pela manhã, os negócios chegaram a ser interrompidos por causa da forte oscilação, com o principal indicador da bolsa caindo 10,47%.
Oscilação da Bovespa em maio (Foto: G1 ) Oscilação da Bovespa em maio (Foto: G1 )
Oscilação da Bovespa em maio (Foto: G1 )
No mercado de ações, os papéis da Eletrobras tiveram o maior tombo do dia, com recuo acima de 20% nas ordinárias (com direito a voto).
Maiores baixas do Ibovespa nesta quinta-feira:
Eletrobras: -20,96%
Cemig: -20,43%
Banco do Brasil: -19.90%
Gerdau: 17,08%
Eletrobras: 16,96%
Rumo: -16,94%
Cyrela: -16,26%
Usiminas: -16,13
Petrobras: -15,75%
Lojas Americanas: -15,43%

BOVESPA. REUTERS. 19/05/2017. Ibovespa futuro sobe em movimento de ajuste após queda forte na véspera

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) - O contrato do Ibovespa para junho subia pouco mais de 1 por cento nos primeiros negócios desta sexta-feira, após o pânico da véspera que tomou conta dos mercados financeiros brasileiros diante da repercussão negativa a denúncias envolvendo o presidente Michel Temer.

Às 09:10, o contrato para junho do Ibovespa tinha alta de 1,27 por cento, a 62.280 pontos, depois de abrir com valorização de cerca de 3 por cento.

Na véspera, o Ibovespa desabou 8,8 por cento, com o pânico disparado após notícias de que Joesley Batista, um dos controladores do frigorífico JBS, gravou Temer concordando com pagamentos para manter o silêncio do ex-deputado Eduardo Cunha.

Na conversa, Joesley Batista confessou ter pago propina a um procurador da República para ter acesso antecipado a investigações que o envolvia, reclamou de nomeações para cargos importantes no governo, defendeu uma queda mais acentuada da taxa Selic e disse que "zerou" as pendências com Cunha.

O mecanismo de circuit breaker chegou a ser acionado na véspera, interrompendo os negócios por 30 minutos, algo que não acontecia desde outubro de 2008.

(Por Flavia Bohone)

ANBIMA. PORTAL G1. 18/05/2017. Títulos públicos tiveram maior desvalorização diária desde 2003, diz Anbima. Títulos perderam 3,67% do seu valor nesta quinta-feira, segundo levantamento da Anbima iniciado em 2003; títulos que pagam a Selic se valorizaram, apontando expectativa de alta na taxa.
Por G1

Os títulos públicos tiveram nesta quinta-feira (18) uma desvalorização média de 3,67%, de acordo com dados da Associação Brasileira das Entidades dos Mercados Financeiro e de Capitais (Anbima). Trata-se da maior queda já registrada pela associação, que acompanha diariamente o valor de mercado dos títulos desde 2003.
O Índice de Mercado Anbima (IMA) reúne uma carteira de títulos públicos que é a referência da rentabilidade dos títulos de dívida brasileira. Esse valor considera o preço de mercado do título, ou seja, quanto ganha o investidor em caso de venda antecipada. Quem segurar o título até o seu vencimento, receberá os juros contratados na hora da compra.
A queda dos títulos ocorreu em dia de turbulências no mercado financeiro. O Ibovespa caiu 8,8% no pregrão de quinta-feira, dia em que os negócios chegaram a ser interrompidos na bolsa brasileira diante do caos no mercado financeiro.
O Tesouro chegou a suspender a venda de títulos públicos programados para hoje, mas as negociações continuaram no mercado secundário.
Perdas maiores
Os títulos NTN-B, que pagam uma taxa fixa mais a inflação, foram os que tiveram maiores perdas, de 7,52%, segundo a Anbima. Já os títulos prefixados se desvalorizaram 3,48% no dia.
Os únicos títulos que se valorizaram foram os que são remunerados com base na taxa a Selic. Economistas consultados pelo G1 colocaram em xeque o ritmo de redução da taxa básica de juros pelo Banco Central diante da crise política.
"Os resultados de hoje reverteram a performance positiva que os índices acumulavam no mês e reduziram as valorizações observadas neste ano", disse a Anbima.


ANÁLISE


PORTAL G1. 18/05/2017. Crise política pode afetar recuperação da economia brasileira, dizem especialistas. Mercados entraram em pânico após denúncias contra o presidente Michel Temer; há dúvidas sobre aprovação da reforma da Previdência e manutenção do ritmo de corte da Selic.
Por Luisa Melo e Pâmela Kometani, G1

A crise política pode afetar a recuperação da economia brasileira, afirmaram especialistas ouvidos pelo G1. Após a delação dos donos da JBS afirmando que gravaram o aval do presidente Michel Temer para comprar o silêncio do deputado cassado Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ), os mercados entraram em pânico na manhã desta quinta-feira (18), com o dólar cotado acima de R$ 3,40, e a Bovespa chegou a interromper os negócios depois de cair mais de 10%.
Esse cenário trouxe incertezas quanto ao andamento das reformas da Previdência e Trabalhista, que estão em análise no Congresso. Até mesmo o ritmo de queda da taxa Selic, a taxa básica de juros da economia, pode ser afetado pelas incertezas na economia e política, de acordo com os especialistas.
ACOMPANHE OS MERCADOS EM TEMPO REAL
Segundo Alexandre Wolwacz, diretor técnico da L&S Investimentos, a crise política trouxe consequências econômicas violentas e somente após a resolução disso será possível saber a direção da economia no país. “Essa situação gera uma incerteza sobre a política econômica. Não sabemos se vamos continuar reduzindo as taxas de juros, se vamos respeitar a meta de inflação ou se vamos conseguir gerar empregos”, ressalta.
"A agenda de reformas fica praticamente inviabilizada, a própria manutenção do governo é incerta e isso afeta também a retomada dos investimentos, a principal variável por trás da expectativa de retomada da economia", diz Silvio Campos Neto, economista da consultoria Tendências. Diante desse cenário, segundo ele, a queda do desemprego também fica mais distante.
Para Alex Agostini, economista-chefe da Austin Ratings, os acontecimentos políticos afetam a economia em curto, médio e longo prazo, e precisam de resolução para o andamento do mercado. "É importante ter o conhecimento dos fatos o mais breve possível para que os agentes econômicos determinem suas expectativas e atuem", afirma Alex Agostini, economista-chefe da Austin Ratings.
"Essa crise coloca praticamente em terra qualquer chance de reforma e ainda põe em dúvida a permanência do Temer", avalia Chico Pessoa, economista da LCA Consultores.
Taxa Selic
Campos Neto, da Tendências, acredita que, caso a volatilidade do mercado se prolongue, o Banco Central pode reduzir o ritmo de queda ou até mesmo estagnar a taxa Selic. "Se o dólar continuar subindo ao longo das próximas semanas, chegando a R$ 3,60, R$ 3,80, o estrago inflacionário pode ser grande e o governo vai ter que ser mais cauteloso [em relação ao corte da taxa básica de juros]", explica.
O corte na taxa Selic é embasado no ritmo de queda da inflação. Se o dólar sobe muito, o índice geral de preços acaba sendo afetado, já que muitos itens da economia têm insumos importados.
Por outro lado, Alex Agostini, economista-chefe da Austin Ratings, acredita que a Selic não deve ser afetada, na próxima reunião em maio, e a empresa projeta corte de 1 ponto percentual. Para as próximas reuniões, o especialista diz que o Banco Central vai analisar os acontecimentos para determinar se o ritmo será mantido. "O BC já acompanhava a sustentabilidade de economia e como a reforma da Previdência foi colocada em dúvida, isso coloca a sustentabilidade do equilíbrio fiscal em dúvida e as chances de reduzir a taxa depende dessa aprovação", afirma.
Rating
Sobre a nota emitida pelas agências de classificação de risco para o país, Neto diz que uma redução não é provável no curto prazo, mas a expectativa de recuperação do rating não deve se concretizar, segundo Campos Neto.
De acordo com Agostini, da Austin Ratings, as incertezas políticas que afetam a economia também impactam de forma negativa a percepção de melhora no rating, já que a aprovação da reforma da Previdência era considerada uma das etapas para melhorar o grau de investimento do país. "Isso é ruim porque mantém a limitação de investidores internacionais no Brasil".
Incertezas no mercado
A LCA espera uma maior taxa câmbio, uma queda menor na taxa de juros e um ritmo menor de crescimento do PIB. "Já a inflação vai depender do comportamento das variáveis aumento do câmbio e queda da atividade econômica", diz Pessoa.
"O mercado não gosta de incerteza. Se ele fica com medo, ele busca proteção e essa proteção normalmente vem no dólar", afirma Pessoa.
Sobre a abertura da Bovespa em circuit breaker, um mecanismo de controle de variação dos índices, Wolwacz, da L&S Investimentos, disse que isso pode ser considerado um fato raro. “Não tínhamos visto isso nem em 2008. É um fato histórico dentro da bolsa brasileira”, ressalta.
Indefinição sobre Temer
A indefinição sobre a permanência de Temer coloca em cheque não só a aprovação das reformas, mas a continuidade da política econômica, incluindo a gestão de estatais como a Petrobras, que tem capital aberto, segundo Pessoa. "E se vem alguém (um novo governo) que muda a política e congela os preços da Petrobras de novo?", avalia Pessoa.
"As perguntas que estamos fazendo agora, considerando o cenário da queda do Temer como o mais provável, é: tem eleição direta ou indireta? A equipe econômica fica até ele sair? Quem vai ganhar vai mantê-la?", questiona Pessoa.
As quedas da Petrobras, Banco do Brasil e Vale nas bolsas ao redor mundo também foram impactadas pela incerteza do comando no Brasil, já que se houver uma troca de governo, a tendência é que essas empresas tenham troca de gestores e o mercado se antecipa a prováveis mudanças. "Essas alterações podem impactar futuras decisões e o mercado age para se proteger de possíveis perdas", afirma Agostini.
Segundo Pessoa, se a equipe econômica de Temer continua no comando do país, ainda que a reforma da Previdência não seja aprovada, outras políticas como o controle do caixa, o aumento dos impostos, a PEC do teto dos gastos e as concessões a privatizações são mantidas, acalmando os investidores.

PORTAL G1. 18/05/2017. Coluna de Thais Herédia. 'Reformas estão em coma', diz analista político

Mercado financeiro e governo já ensaiavam uma comemoração pela aprovação da reforma da previdência na Câmara dos Deputados. Há menos de 12 horas antes de estourar o escândalo envolvendo Michel Temer, Aécio Neves e a JBS, os aliados do governo já contabilizavam os votos necessários para aprovação da PEC da previdência – tudo que o mercado esperava para destravar os investimentos para o Brasil.

O país amanheceu num dia obscuro, incerto e uma promessa assustadora de que viveremos tempos turbulentos, numa crise sem precedentes. A crise com o impeachment, a recessão e a Lava Jato (até aqui) perdeu peso diante do escândalo que pode decretar o final da presidência de Temer.

Como a maior preocupação do mercado, até então, era com a aprovação das reformas, em especial da previdência, perguntei ao analista político Lucas Aragão, da Arko Advice, como fica a agenda econômica da política.

“As reformas estão em coma. A chance de ressuscitá-las depende da nova maioria em torno de um novo governo que deve surgir. Temer perdeu a capacidade de tocar as reformas. Se ele ficar, ou se será o TSE a decidir sobre seu governo, ou ainda se será através de um impeachment, tudo isso vai ditar as condições para as reformas ressuscitarem ou não”, respondeu.

O cenário do momento, e mais benigno, traçado por Lucas Aragão é de renúncia de Temer e, em seguida, de Rodrigo Maia, presidente da Câmara dos Deputados, assumindo a interinidade da Presidência da República. Mesmo que seja assim, a pauta do parlamento vai estar totalmente voltada para a votação indireta para a escolha do novo presidente.

“Vamos ter que acompanhar a capacidade política do Maia. A interinidade dele dura 30 dias e neste tempo, o objetivo é tocar a eleição. Nós não temos eleição indireta desde Tancredo Neves e a Constituição Federal é muito cinzenta sobre o que pode, ou não pode. Maia deve levar esses 30 dias mais preocupado em arrumar as regras para só depois pensar nas reformas”, avalia o analista da Arko Advice.

Será que os parlamentares serão capazes, ou terão disposição, para escolher um candidato reformista? Que garanta a retomada das votações da PEC da previdência o mais rápido possível e devolver alguma calma ao mercado financeiro?

“Existe já disposição do mundo político, do setor produtivo, dos municípios, dos estados, de quase todos os envolvidos, de aprovar a reforma da previdência. O governo estava praticamente com todos os votos. Agora, isso tudo vai depender deste novo conjunto de fatores: quem será a nova maioria do governo? Que disposição, que coragem terá para enfrentar esta agenda? O próprio Maia é um candidato. Mas tudo vai depender dos desenhos que vão nascer dos 30 dias do mandato de Rodrigo Maia. Como os partidos e os possíveis candidatos vão se acomodar”, disse.

No final das contas, o país está pendurado em Michel Temer. Enquanto ele não cede, não renúncia, se ele provocar um processo mais demorado e dramático da crise, vamos assistir à irracionalidade lógica dos investidores por mais tempo – de fugirem deste barril de pólvora o quanto antes.

PORTAL G1. 18/05/2017. Coluna de Thais Herédia. Mercados abrem em pânico

As operações feitas no mercado futuro da bolsa operavam em queda de 10% por volta das 9h da manhã desta quinta-feira (18). O dólar futuro também reagindo fortemente aos escândalos na política, operando acima de R$ 3,32. No mercado futuro de juros, os chamados DI’s dispararam para cima, revertendo o movimento recente de queda pela expectativa de derrubada da taxa Selic pelo Banco Central.

“Os mercados vão abrir totalmente disfuncionais. Vamos ver o que o BC e o Tesouro Nacional vão fazer para acalmar a turma”, me disse logo cedo um alto executivo do mercado, gestor de um grande fundo de investimentos no país.

Este é apenas um tempero do que pode acontecer no mercado financeiro brasileiro em reação à delação dos executivos da JBS contra o presidente Michel Temer e o senador Aécio Neves. Os operadores já esperam que a bolsa de valores acione “circuit breaker”, medida que interrompe as negociações para evitar que os preços percam fundamento com o pânico dos investidores.

“Cadê a gravação? Quais seriam as alternativas? Os nomes que podem assumir o governo? O Banco Central soltou comunicado avisando que está monitorando os mercados e avisou também que mantem seu plano estrutural de queda dos juros. Se realmente pensa em manter os planos de redução, pode não ser mais na intensidade que o mercado esperava, acima de 1pp. E para isso, para conseguir baixar o juro mesmo diante desta crise, o BC deve estar pensando em segurar o dólar”, explicou um experiente operador do mercado, numa das maiores instituições de investimentos do país.

Ainda assim, não está descartado um adiamento da queda dos juros no próximo dia 31, se a crise não for contida nas próximas duas semanas. E não é só isso que preocupa, já que a não aprovação da reforma da previdência vai jogar muita gasolina desta fogueira e pode reverter processo de recuperação da economia.

“De hoje até a reunião do Copom falta aproximadamente um século. Precisamos entender qual vai ser o cenário, a velocidade da saída do Temer, qual vai ser o tamanho da briga. Mas é bastante razoável imaginar que, se essa situação não ficar clara, não tem queda de juros no próximo Comitê”, me disse Adeodato Netto, da Eleven Financial.

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BACEN. 19/05/2017. BC divulga Boletim Regional, com dados e indicadores econômicos de cada região do país.

A evolução recente dos indicadores da atividade
econômica no país permanece compatível com as
perspectivas de estabilização da economia no curto
prazo e sugere retomada gradual da atividade ao
longo de 2017. A economia segue operando com
alto nível de ociosidade dos fatores de produção,
refletido nos baixos índices de utilização da
capacidade da indústria e, principalmente, na taxa
de desemprego, cenário que, ao lado da desinflação
dos alimentos, favorece a desaceleração da inflação.
Nesse ambiente, após registrar recuos trimestrais
desde o primeiro trimestre de 2015, o Índice de
Atividade Econômica do Banco Central – Brasil
(IBC-Br) variou 0,8% na margem, no trimestre encerrado
em fevereiro de 2017, de acordo com dados
dessazonalizados.
No Norte, ocorreram, ao final de 2016 e início deste
ano, sinais de estabilização da atividade, processo
caracterizado por resultados mistos nos indicadores
econômicos. No trimestre encerrado em fevereiro,
houve recuperação da produção industrial - com reflexo
positivo na confiança dos agentes econômicos
e no comércio exterior -, destacando-se o desempenho
da indústria de transformação, impulsionado
pelas indústrias de outros equipamentos de transporte
e produtos de informática, eletrônicos e
ópticos no Polo Industrial de Manaus, e de minerais
não-metálicos e produtos alimentícios, no Pará. Em
sentido inverso, houve retração no volume de serviços,
repercutindo, em parte, desempenhos
desfavoráveis nos mercados de trabalho e de cré-
dito. Nesse cenário, o Índice de Atividade Econômica
Regional – Norte (IBCR-N) cresceu, na margem, 0,6%
em relação ao trimestre finalizado em novembro,
quando diminuíra 2,5%, no mesmo tipo de compara-
ção, de acordo com dados dessazonalizados.
A atividade econômica teve registrar evolução mais
favorável no Nordeste em 2017, impactada pela
recuperação da safra agrícola – a produção de grãos
da região deverá aumentar 89,1% no ano, evidenciando
resultados expressivos das culturas de milho,
feijão e soja - e pelos efeitos da conclusão de
importantes obras sobre a estrutura produtiva da
região. No mesmo sentido, concorre a recuperação
gradual dos indicadores de confiança dos agentes
econômicos e a trajetória da demanda por bens e
serviços não financeiros. Nesse contexto, em que
persiste a ociosidade dos fatores de produção, o
Índice de Atividade Econômica Regional – Nordeste
(IBCR-NE) apresentou estabilidade no trimestre
encerrado em fevereiro, em relação ao finalizado
em novembro, quando havia recuado 0,2%, no
mesmo tipo de comparação, considerados dados
dessazonalizados. Note-se que esta oscilação é
típica de períodos de acomodação da atividade.
Os principais indicadores da economia do CentroOeste
evoluíram favoravelmente no trimestre
encerrado em fevereiro de 2017. No âmbito da
demanda, as estatísticas do comércio e dos serviços
não financeiros na região sugerem momento de
inflexão, com tendência de elevação na trajetória
nos próximos trimestres, impulsionada pelo aumento
na renda agrícola, tendo em vista as estimativas
de crescimento da safra de grãos. Em relação aos
indicadores de oferta, destaque para o desempenho
da produção industrial, prejudicada em trimestres
anteriores pelos efeitos da estiagem sobre a
indústria alimentícia, que detém participação
relevante na cadeia produtiva da região. Nesse
contexto, o Índice de Atividade Econômica Regional
– Centro-Oeste (IBCR-CO) aumentou, na margem,
1,1% no período, após contração de 0,5% no trimestre
encerrado em novembro, segundo dados
dessazonalizados.
No Sudeste, a oscilação dos principais indicadores
econômicos sugere acomodação da atividade no
período mais recente. Nesse cenário, embora o mercado
de trabalho persista fragilizado, dificultando a
recuperação consistente dos indicadores de consumo,
e o reduzido dinamismo do mercado de crédito
ainda limite a recuperação dos gastos das famílias e
dos investimentos, as vendas do comércio ampliado
mostraram recuperação no trimestre encerrado em
fevereiro, em relação ao finalizado em novembro,
favorecidas pela expansão das vendas de tecidos,
vestuário e calçados. No mesmo sentido, produção
industrial do Sudeste interrompeu trajetória declinante,
sustentada, em especial, pela expansão da indústria
extrativa. Nesse cenário, o Índice de Atividade
Econômica Regional – Sudeste (IBCR-SE) cresceu
0,3% no trimestre finalizado em fevereiro, em rela-
ção ao encerrado em novembro, quando declinara
1,2%, no mesmo tipo de comparação, considerados
dados dessazonalizados.
O desempenho da economia do Sul apresentou
sinais de retomada importante no início de 2017, em
cenário de reação moderada do mercado de crédito.
No âmbito da demanda, houve reação significativa
das vendas do comércio ampliado e, em menor
escala, do volume de serviços não financeiros, em
ambiente de continuidade da recuperação das
expectativas dos consumidores. Os indicadores da
oferta também evoluíram favoravelmente. A safra
de grãos no Sul deverá aumentar 13,8% no ano,
ressaltando-se que a elevação da renda agrícola
tende a exercer desdobramentos favoráveis sobre a
indústria, e, de maneira mais abrangente, sobre toda
a cadeia produtiva da região. Em relação à atividade
industrial, é relevante enfatizar que a expansão de
4,0% registrada, neste segmento, no trimestre
encerrado em fevereiro de 2017, repercutiu
aumento na produção de catorze das dezoito
atividades pesquisadas, com destaque para a
fabricação de veículos automotores e de produtos
de fumo. Nesse contexto, o Índice de Atividade
Econômica Regional – Sul (IBCR-S) registrou, na margem,
variações respectivas de 2,8% e -0,9% nos
trimestres encerrados em fevereiro de 2017 e em
novembro do ano anterior, segundo dados dessazonalizados,
oscilação típica de períodos de
acomodação da atividade.

Boletim: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/boletimregional/port/2017/04/br201704P.pdf

CNI. 18/05/2017. Facilitação do comércio exterior ainda é desafio à competividade das exportações. O universo de encargos, taxas e contribuições que incidem sobre as importações e exportações de bens são desconhecidos pelo setor privado e até pelo governo. Empresas reivindicam a criação de um sistema de coleta único para estimular comércio internacional

O comércio exterior brasileiro vive um momento de simplificação dos procedimentos administrativos e legais, com impactos importantes na redução de prazos, custos e previsibilidade das operações de exportação e importação. Mas essa mudança ocorre lentamente por envolver pelo menos 22 órgãos públicos e centenas de processos. A avaliação faz parte da Agenda Internacional da Indústria 2017, documento elaborado pela Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI) e que reúne as prioridades do setor para a promoção da inserção internacional das empresas brasileiras.

Entre as prioridades para facilitar e desburocratizar o comércio exterior, a CNI avalia que é necessário realizar um levantamento do universo de encargos, taxas e contribuições arrecadados pelos órgãos anuentes do comércio exterior e que incidem sobre importações e exportações de bens. Atualmente, nem o setor privado e nem o governo sabem exatamente a quantidade de cobranças que existem ou o valor que movimentam.

TARIFA ILEGAL

Desde o ano passado, se intensificou a cobrança de uma tarifa para escanear os contêineres por terminais portuários. A CNI já informou ao governo sobre a cobrança ilegal do escaneamento dos contêineres nos portos brasileiros. Mas, até o momento, não obteve resposta.

Em 2016, os portos públicos movimentaram 3,9 milhões de contêineres. E o exportador pagou para escanear, por cada contêiner, entre R$ 200 e R$ 400. O valor depende de terminal para terminal. "A cobrança é ilegal. Mesmo que não fosse, a tarifa é incompatível com o serviço prestado, o que vai contra os compromissos assumidos pelo país no Acordo de Facilitação de Comércio da OMC”, diz o diretor de Desenvolvimento Industrial da CNI, Carlos Abijaodi.

Pesquisa da CNI mostra que a cobrança da "inspeção não-invasiva dos contêineres" impacta negativamente 78% dos exportadores brasileiros. Entre os 23 setores industriais mais afetados, estão o de alimentos, automotivo, café, calçados, papel e celulose e combustíveis.

AVANÇOS

Apesar das dificuldades, o diretor da CNI explica que há iniciativas bem sucedidas e que têm contribuído para ampliar as exportações. Abijaodi lembra que o Portal Único do Comércio Exterior, liderado pela Receita Federal e a Secretaria de Comércio Exterior, do Ministério de Indústria e Comércio e Serviços (MDIC), com apoio do setor privado, tem avançado.

Outra iniciativa relevante é a implementação, ainda em curso, do Programa Brasileiro de Operador Econômico Autorizado (OEA), que deve levar à assinatura de acordos de reconhecimento mútuo (ARM) com parceiros comerciais do Brasil.

PRIORIDADES PARA 2017

  • Portal Único de Comércio Exterior: Plena implantação do Portal Único de Comércio Exterior em 2017, de acordo com o orçamento, prazo e escopo planejados;
  • Programa Brasileiro de Operador Econômico Autorizado: Negociação de acordos de reconhecimento mútuo do OEA com países e blocos prioritários, incluindo Estados Unidos, Japão, União Europeia e membros do Mercosul; 
  • Mapeamento de encargos, taxas e contribuições: Levantamento do universo de encargos, taxas e contribuições arrecadados pelos órgãos anuentes do comércio exterior brasileiro que incidem sobre as importações e exportações de bens;
  • Coleta única de encargos e taxas: Criação de um sistema de coleta única de pagamentos de encargos e taxas aplicadas no comércio exterior brasileiro no âmbito do Portal Único de Comércio Exterior;
  • CONFAC: Implementação da agenda prioritária do setor empresarial em matéria de facilitação de comércio no Comitê Nacional de Facilitação de Comércio (CONFAC).

BRASIL INTERNACIONAL

Na próxima terça-feira (23), confira em mais um capítulo da série Brasil Internacional reportagem sobre Tributação no Comércio Exterior. Acompanhe abaixo cada capítulo do especial da Agência CNI de Notícias:

1ª - Série especial mostra como o Brasil pode avançar no comércio exterior
2º - 8 acordos comerciais que precisam avançar até o fim do ano
3ª - Investimento da indústria no exterior fortalece a economia brasileira
4ª - VÍDEO: Logística ineficiente dificulta competitividade do comércio exterior brasileiro
5ª - Aumento de barreiras não-tarifárias afeta indústrias brasileiras
6ª - Burocracia no sistema de financiamento e garantias às exportações é entrave ao comércio
7ª - Facilitação do comércio exterior ainda é desafio à competividade das exportações

Agenda Internacional da Indústria 2017: http://www.portaldaindustria.com.br/publicacoes/2017/4/agenda-internacional-da-industria/


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US ECONOMICS

FED. May 19, 2017. Federal Reserve Board issues Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households

Americans' overall financial well-being in 2016 continued on a modest upward path, although the improvement was less pronounced for those with less education, according to the Federal Reserve Board's latest Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households.

The report, based on the Board's fourth annual Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking conducted in October 2016, presents a picture of improving financial well-being among Americans. Overall, 70 percent of respondents said they were either "living comfortably" or "doing okay," up 1 percentage point from 2015 and up 8 percentage points from the first survey results in 2013. The improvements in well-being as reported by the survey respondents are concentrated among adults with at least some college education.

"The survey findings remind us that many American households are struggling financially, including fully 40 percent of those with a high school diploma or less," said Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard. "More broadly, 44 percent of all respondents could not cover an unexpected $400 emergency expense or would rely on borrowing or selling something to do so. The survey also shows that many adults have no savings for retirement."

The survey results also highlight differences in how those who went to college perceive the value of their education. Respondents who failed to complete at least an associate degree were less likely to report that the financial benefits exceeded the cost than were those who completed a degree. Although majorities of degree completers from a wide range of majors indicated that the financial benefits of their education exceed the costs, respondents with a degree in engineering were the most likely to report that their education was financially worthwhile. And perceived value also varied among those who attended public, non-profit, or for-profit institutions.

The survey covers several aspects of financial instability. Twenty-three percent of adults did not expect to be able to pay all of their current month's bills in full; 25 percent reported skipping medical treatments due to cost in the prior year; and, if faced with an unexpected $400 emergency expense, 44 percent of adults either could not pay the expense or would borrow or sell something to do so. This share of adults who appeared ill-prepared for a $400 emergency has declined 6 percentage points since 2013, and the share who reported missing medical treatments due to an inability to pay has declined 7 percentage points since 2013.

An additional concern among some workers was the scheduling requirements of their employer. Seventeen percent of workers, including 24 percent of those with a high-school education or less, report that their schedule varies from week to week based on employers' needs. Of those with variable schedules, two-thirds receive their schedule six days in advance or less, and 37 percent either have on-call scheduling or receive notice one day or less in advance.

In addition to the short-run challenges that some adults experience, a continued challenge that is also highlighted in the findings is a difficulty planning for the long-term needs in retirement. This includes the 28 percent of non-retired adults who lack retirement savings, and--among those who are saving--a lack of comfort in managing these savings. Fifty-three percent of adults with self-directed retirement accounts were either "not comfortable" or only "slightly comfortable" in their ability to make the right investment decisions about those accounts. Forty percent of black retirees and 50 percent of Hispanic retirees indicate that poor health contributed to their decision about when to retire, compared to 26 percent of non-Hispanic white retirees for whom health was a deciding factor.

Previous surveys have informed the Federal Reserve and other government agencies about consumer financial behavior and opinions. More than 6,600 respondents completed the survey. Topics covered in the survey and the report include individuals' overall financial well-being, employment experiences, income and savings behaviors, economic preparedness, access to banking and credit, housing and living arrangement decisions, education and human capital, student loans, and retirement planning.

Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking

Since 2013, the Federal Reserve Board has conducted the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), which evaluates the economic well-being of U.S. households and identifies potential risks to their financial stability. The survey includes modules on a range of topics of current relevance to financial well-being including credit access and behaviors, savings, retirement, economic fragility, and education and student loans.

All reports and related publications, including the most recent report, can be accessed through "Publications." In addition, the de-identified individual level data from the SHED and the corresponding documentation are available through "Data."

Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2016. May 19, 2017 - This report analyzes results of the Board's fourth Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. This survey provides insights into the well-being of households and consumers, and provides important information about how individuals and their families are faring in the economy.

FULL DOCUMENT: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2016-report-economic-well-being-us-households-201705.pdf


TPP. REUTERS. 19/05/2017. Membros do acordo comercial TPP buscam avançar sem os EUA
Por Mai Nguyen e Kaori Kaneko

HANÓI/TÓQUIO (Reuters) - Os membros remanescentes do acordo de comércio Parceria Transpacífico (TPP, na sigla em inglês) estão trabalhando em um comunicado para reafirmar seu compromisso apesar da saída dos Estados Unidos, disseram fontes próximas às discussões.

As discussões estão acontecendo durante a reunião Cooperação Econômica Ásia-Pacífico, maior encontro de comércio desde que o presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, subverteu a ordem mundial com sua política de "América Primeiro".

Enquanto o representante de comércio dos EUA, Robert Lighthizer, terá reuniões bilaterais com países importantes, a China pressionará com o acordo de comércio asiático conforme se coloca como potência global do livre comércio.

Já o Japão está liderando os países que ainda querem avançar com o acordo TPP, bem mais abrangente mas que Trump descartou em um de seus primeiros atos no cargo e que não inclui a China.

Fontes próximas às discussões disseram que os chamados Estados do TPP-11 --os 11 membros restantes depois que os EUA saíram --planejam um comunicado para domingo que dirá que estão comprometidos em avançar com o TPP.

"Haverá dois pontos principais: 1. buscar a entrada em vigor do TPP-11, 2. Ter em mente um ambiente em que um país signatário pode voltar", disse uma fonte próxima das discussões.

O acordo deve entrar em vigor no próximo ano.



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LGCJ.: