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20 de outubro de 2017

CANADA ECONOMICS



VENEZUELA



Global Affairs Canada. October 20, 2017. Canada to host Lima Group meeting on Venezuela

Ottawa, Ontario - Canada is deeply concerned by the deteriorating political and economic crisis in Venezuela and is working intensively with like-minded countries, through the Lima Group and the international community, to advocate for the restoration of democracy and the protection of human rights for the Venezuelan people.

The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today announced that Canada will host the third ministerial meeting of the Lima Group in Toronto, Ontario, on October 26, 2017.

At the meeting, Minister Freeland, along with the foreign minister of Peru, Ricardo Luna, as co-chair, will host foreign ministers of the Lima Group to explore ways in which countries of the hemisphere can seek a solution to the Venezuelan crisis. To this end, the group will discuss options to broaden cooperation with other partners, maintain pressure on the Maduro regime, and translate its unwavering support for the Venezuelan people into further concrete actions.

On the margins of the Lima Group meeting in Toronto, Minister Freeland will also hold bilateral meetings with her counterparts, as well as participate in a panel on Venezuela hosted by the Munk School of Global Affairs and the Canadian Council for the Americas. The conference will bring together international experts to discuss the political and economic crisis in Venezuela and what can be done to promote the restoration of a prosperous and democratic Venezuela.

Quotes

“Canada has taken a leadership role in addressing the crisis in Venezuela, in cooperation with other countries in the region. Together with our like-minded partners, we will continue to increase pressure on the Maduro regime. Our objective is clear: a peaceful solution to the crisis and the restoration of democracy and human rights for all Venezuelans.”

- Hon. Chrystia Freeland, P.C., M.P., Minister of Foreign Affairs

Quick facts

  • The first Lima Group meeting was attended by Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Saint Lucia.
  • The group was established on August 8, 2017, to coordinate the countries’ efforts and bring international pressure on Venezuela.
  • This is the third ministerial meeting of the Lima Group. Signatories to the Lima declarations, in the group’s joint statements, have committed to closely monitoring events in Venezuela until the full restoration of democracy in the country is achieved.




BOMBARDIER



The Globe and Mail. 20 Oct 2017. Delta won’t pay jet tariffs, CEO says. Airline expected to receive planes from final assembly plant in Alabama in wake of Airbus acquisition of C Series stake
KELLY YAMANOUCHI, New York Times News Service

In the middle of a “Buy American” trade dispute over jets Delta Air Lines Inc. is buying from a Canadian manufacturer, Delta chief executive Ed Bastian says the airline will not pay any of the massive tariffs proposed by the Trump administration.
He now expects Delta will take delivery of the jets from a final assembly facility in Mobile, Ala., thanks to a blockbuster deal announced this week.
“I can tell you Delta is not going to pay any tariffs,” Mr. Bastian said at a media event at the company’s headquarters this week.
In wide-ranging remarks, Mr. Bastian voiced support of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax-reform plan and said Delta would continue to oppose so-called religious freedom state legislation.
Delta, one of the largest employers in Georgia, has nearly $40-billion in operating revenue annually.
The Atlanta-based company’s deal to buy 75 C Series CS100 jets has been in the crosshairs of the Trump administration.
The low prices Delta negotiated in the deal prompted rival Boeing Co. to allege that Bombardier Inc. was getting illegal subsidies and dumping its product into the U.S. market.
The Trump administration slapped Bombardier with proposed duties of nearly 300 per cent that could quadruple the price of the jets and raise the cost of flying.
This week, Airbus SE announced it will buy a majority stake in Bombardier’s C Series business and add a final assembly line for the planes at the Airbus plant in Mobile.
Mr. Bastian said he was aware of the discussions on the Airbus-Bombardier deal over the past few weeks. If the deal goes through, “I would expect we’d be taking the C Series out of Mobile,” he said. “I’m optimistic that the Airbus-Bombardier investment will help minimize some of the political concerns.”
Bombardier CEO Alain Bellemare said during a news conference Monday that the U.S. assembly line will allow the aircraft to “become a domestic product, for which you have no import duty applied to a domestic product.” That would be a route for Delta to avoid paying tariffs.
Delta plans to use the planes to fly out of its hubs in Seattle or New York, or in Texas, where Delta would go up against rivals United, American and Southwest. The CS100 could replace regional jets.
Mr. Bastian said he could not understand why Boeing filed the complaint against the deal.
“I don’t get it. I’m mystified. And I’ve said that to Boeing many times,” Mr. Bastian said.
Still, he said Delta “will be taking more Boeing aircraft into the future.”
“Boeing has every opportunity to win us,” Mr. Bastian said. “However, Boeing is going to need to continue to earn the right to win that next decade of support.”
Mr. Bellemare said Bombardier will continue to fight the Boeing petition and the deal with Airbus is not driven by Boeing’s action.
“We’ve said we’re going to look at all options to protect our access to the U.S. market, so we can protect the overall value of the C Series aircraft, and that’s what we’re doing,” Mr. Bellemare said.
Mr. Bastian has said there may be a delay when Delta gets its C Series jets “as we work through the issues,” beyond the schedule for the planes to begin arriving in spring 2018.
Airbus would acquire 50.01-percent interest in the C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, based on an agreement subject to regulatory approvals. If approved, the deal is expected to close in the second half of 2018.
While Mr. Bastian called the U.S. Commerce Department’s proposed tariffs on Bombardier “absurd” on CNBC late last month, he is in favour of the President’s proposed tax reforms and reiterated his support on Wednesday.
“There’s no question we’re unabashedly in support of finding a better way to bring our corporate rates down to a competitive level on an international scale,” Mr. Bastian said. “It will allow us to create jobs, it will allow us to grow markets, it will allow us to reinvest.”
Amid the possibility of legislation on religious freedom being reintroduced in the next session of the Georgia General Assembly, Mr. Bastian said Delta’s opposition to such measures will remain unchanged.
Such measures could limit the government from interfering with people who base their actions on religious beliefs. Opponents worry that could, for example, give business owners legal cover to refuse service to gay couples.
On Wednesday, Mr. Bastian said: “We will not tolerate discrimination of any variety, no matter how well people want to try to cloak it in protecting religious freedoms. We see it as discriminatory and our position will remain as strong as ever.”
Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Close: $52.27 (U.S.), down 59¢

The Globe and Mail. 20 Oct 2017. ARTICLE. Bombardier-Airbus deal exposes the folly of corporate welfare
MARK MILKE, Author of multiple reports on subsidies to business

“They got the money, hey/You know they got away/They headed down south/ and they’re still running today.” – From Take the Money and Run, the
Steve Miller Band, 1976

In the Orwellian language of corporate-speak, Airbus’s chief executive Tom Enders described the recent deal between his company and Bombardier Inc. on the C Series airliner as a “win-win for everybody!”
Not exactly, for taxpayers, but some context for those who missed the details: Montreal-based Bombardier just inked a proposal with Paris-based Airbus to bring the company into the C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership. That company will, assuming the deal is approved by shareholders, be owned by three parties: Airbus (50.01 per cent), Bombardier (31 per cent) and Investissement Québec (19 per cent), give or take a decimal point.
The benefit for Bombardier is that part of its C Series production will now happen at Airbus facilities in Alabama.
That will blunt the intended punitive tariffs of nearly 300 per cent that were soon to be imposed by the U.S. Commerce Department on Bombardier jets; that related to allegations from Boeing that Bombardier was unfairly subsidized by Canadian governments.
For those unaware, Investissement Québec is Quebec’s provincially owned “investment” agency. It deposited $1-billion (U.S.) in this same partnership just 16 months ago, for a 49.5-per-cent stake, while Bombardier held the remaining share.
The new agreement with Airbus, for no extra investment, thus substantially dilutes the shares of both Bombardier and the Quebec government.
That injection of cash from Quebec taxpayers came in addition to other taxpayer grants and loans over the decades. From what can be found and totalled, Bombardier’s first disbursement from the federal government arrived in 1966. In the decades since, and including merged companies and adjustments for inflation to arrive at consistent dollar figures, about $4.1-billion (Canadian) has been granted, lent or “invested” by the federal government.
That includes $350-million announced in 2008 by the Conservative government for the C-Series program and $372.5-million this past February by the Liberal government, with part of that funding also for the C Series.
No one who reads the academic, peer-reviewed economic literature on government subsidies to business can arrive at any conclusion other than what such literature routinely finds: When governments attempt to pick winners and losers with tax dollars, they inevitably lose money; the ostensible economic effects pointed to by subsidy supporters are almost always overstated; most “investment,” “targeting” or attempts to build “clusters” – “super” or otherwise – merely displace capital flows, economic outcomes and employment and tax revenues from one jurisdiction to another; government attempts to game the market often end up with negative economic outcomes. The flight of part of Bombardier’s taxpayer-subsidized C Series production to Alabama is only the latest example.
Taxpayer-financed incentives are, of course, merely another form of protectionism. So while Bombardier made this move to ward off the U.S. government’s intended tariffs, the company itself can hardly complain given Canadian government support over the decades. The Boeing ploy was just tit-for-taxpayerfinanced-tat.
One positive in all this: The Bombardier-Airbus deal finally rips away the pretense that corporate welfare is about domestic job creation.
Politicians, worldwide, have used taxpayers as a prop for their political and interventionist games at a cost to real people and over useful domestic priorities for such money, for decades.
For example, it is indefensible that Brazil, the poorest country among the jurisdictions that compete to subsidize the aerospace sector, spends tax dollars on “its” aerospace companies while richer countries such as France, Britain, the United States and Canada do the same for their so-called domestic companies.
Which points to a remedy: stronger free-trade agreements that ban taxpayer financing for corporations. That remedy would free up tax dollars for what should be domestic priorities. Here’s one Canadian example: more defence spending for a military that has been neglected for decades.
The response to this is often that governments will never change course. That is simply untrue. The 1990s-era provincial governments of Mike Harris and Ralph Klein both dramatically reduced spending on corporate welfare.
Also, governments can co-operate on ridding the planet of unhelpful policy when they choose to. Internationally, as the OECD reported just last week, governments around the world are “rapidly dismantling harmful tax incentives worldwide,” i.e., uneconomic preferential tax treatment.
In addition, since the 1940s, countries through various international bodies and agreements have steadily lowered tariffs and duties on each other’s goods and services.
Point: Progress is possible, including on ineffective, unproductive subsidies that cost taxpayers, in every country, their money. The avenue to such an end is likely through strengthened free-trade agreements.

THE GLOBE AND MAIL. THE CANADIAN PRESS. REUTERS. OCTOBER 20, 2017. BOMBARDIER-AIRBUS. Airbus has no plans to buy out Bombardier after C Series partnership
ROSS MAROWITS, MONTREAL

Airbus has no plans to buy out minority C Series partners Bombardier and the Quebec government, Airbus chief executive Tom Enders said Friday.

According to terms of the deal announced Monday, Airbus had the option to buy out Bombardier in about seven years, and the Quebec government in 2023.

Following a joint appearance with Bombardier CEO Alain Bellemare at the Montreal Board of Trade, Enders said that's not the European giant's plan.

"We have no intention to buy out the others because we know they are great partners and if they want to stay on the journey going forward they are very welcome to that," he told reporters.

Read also: How Airbus landed Bombardier's C Series

He said the priority is to close the deal next year that gives Airbus majority control, build a second assembly line in Alabama, sell more aircraft and make the program a huge success.

Earlier, Enders told business leaders that he expects Boeing won't give up easily after launching a trade action with the U.S. government against the C Series that has resulted in 300 per cent preliminary duties on imports.

"The B guys will certainly throw everything into our way they can figure so the coming months might be a little bit rough and tough but we've seen that before," he said.

Ultimately he said the C Series will weather the challenge and prevail.

Enders added that Canadians have nothing to fear from Airbus, saying the company will add to Montreal's large aerospace cluster and provide more opportunities for local suppliers, universities and aerospace training schools.

"We're not taking anything away here," he said, adding that he knows there are concerns by some members of the public.

"If anything we will add, we will add to Canada, we will add to the success of the Canadian aerospace industry, Bombardier and suppliers and certainly we will add to the world-wide success of Airbus."

Airbus has already sent lobbyists to Washington to show how the partnership will create U.S. jobs that President Donald Trump has advocated.

Bombardier CEO Alain Bellemare added that Airbus' support will assuage customers who were worried about the future of the C Series.

He says the result will be many more sales that will benefit Bombardier's Mirabel production facility even though a second assembly line will be built in Alabama.

Bellemare reacted forcefully to questions about Airbus not paying any cash for the transaction.

"The point is it's not coming from dollars, it's coming from the value that they bring to the program and that is the reason why the value of this program will more than double," he told reporters.

REUTERS. OCTOBER 20, 2017. Airbus expects to sell 'thousands' of CSeries jets: CEO
Allison Lampert

MONTREAL (Reuters) - Airbus (AIR.PA) Chief Executive Tom Enders said on Friday he believed Bombardier Inc’s (BBDb.TO) CSeries planes would capture half the market for smaller single-aisle aircraft with the sale of “thousands” of the 110-to-130 seat jets.

“I see no reason why we should not be able to capture 50 percent of that market,” Enders said in Montreal at a breakfast organized by the city’s chamber of commerce. “I think we will sell thousands.”

Europe’s largest aerospace group on Monday agreed to take a majority stake in the CSeries program for $1, a move expected to reduce costs while bolstering the plane’s sales and giving Canada’s Bombardier a possible way out of a damaging trade dispute with Boeing Co (BA.N) and U.S. regulators.

The lightweight, carbon-composite jet, which costs $6 billion to develop, has won performance accolades but failed to secure a sale in 18 months.

On Thursday, the head of a major U.S. airplane leasing company said the deal boosts confidence in the CSeries program, but is unlikely to drive a flurry of immediate sales.

Customers will likely remain cautious until the trade dispute is closer to being resolved and the venture with Airbus closes in late 2018.

Some analysts have suggested that Airbus’s 50.01 percent stake in the CSeries could reverberate throughout the aerospace industry, triggering a riposte from other planemakers, including Boeing itself.

Commercial aerospace has four main powers dominated by Airbus and Boeing, which share the market above 150 seats.

Brazil’s Embraer (EMBR3.SA) and Canada’s Bombardier compete in the market between 100 and 150 seats as well as in the market for smaller regional jets.

Enders, who addressed Montreal’s business leaders with Bombardier Chief Executive Alain Bellemare, said the industry-changing venture would have a ripple effect, but didn’t specify what he meant further. “New alliances will be formed,” he said.

Editing by Franklin Paul and Bernadette Baum

THE GLOBE AND MAIL. October 20, 2017. GRAPHIC. What's so remarkable about the C Series? A closer look
GRAPHICS BY JOHN SOPINSKI






INFLATION



StatCan. 2017-10-20. Consumer Price Index, September 2017

September 2017: 1.6% increase (12-month change)
Source(s): CANSIM table 326-0020

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in September, following a 1.4% gain in August. The all-items CPI excluding gasoline rose 1.1% year over year in September, matching the gain in both July and August.

Chart 1: The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the CPI excluding gasoline
The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the CPI excluding gasoline

Chart 1: The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the CPI excluding gasoline

12-month change in the major components

Prices were up in six of the eight major CPI components in the 12 months to September, with the transportation and shelter indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year rise. The clothing and footwear index and the household operations, furnishings and equipment index both declined on a year-over-year basis.

Chart 2: Consumer prices increase in six of the eight major components 
Consumer prices increase in six of the eight major components

Chart 2: Consumer prices increase in six of the eight major components

Transportation costs rose 3.8% on a year-over-year basis in September, following a 2.8% increase in August. For a third consecutive month, gasoline prices were the largest contributor to the gain in transportation prices and also to their acceleration. The gasoline index rose 14.1% in the 12 months to September, largely due to supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Harvey. The purchase of passenger vehicles index accelerated 1.0% year over year in September, up from a 0.7% increase in August.

Consumer prices for food were up 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in September, after increasing 0.9% in August. Prices for food purchased from stores grew 0.9% year over year in September, largely due to the price declines reported in September 2016 not counting as part of the current 12-month movement. Prices for food purchased from restaurants rose 2.7% in September, up slightly from a 2.6% year-over-year gain in August.

Recreation, education and reading costs rose 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in September, matching the increase in August. Tuition fees grew 3.0% in the 12-month period ending in September.

In September, the household operations, furnishings and equipment index (-0.4%) declined on a year-over-year basis for the third consecutive month. The telephone services index contributed the most to this continued decline, down 3.1% in the 12 months to September. Consumers also paid 3.3% less for furniture in September compared with the same month a year earlier.

The clothing and footwear index declined 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in September. Prices for women's clothing contributed the most to the decrease in this major component, falling 4.6% in September, following a 1.9% decline in August. Men's clothing prices also posted a year-over-year decrease, falling 2.7%. In contrast, prices for clothing material and notions rose 3.5% in the 12 months to September.

12-month change in the provinces

Consumer prices rose more on a year-over-year basis in September than they did in August in seven provinces, while two provinces registered decelerations.

Chart 3: Consumer prices rise at a faster rate in seven provinces
Consumer prices rise at a faster rate in seven provinces

Chart 3: Consumer prices rise at a faster rate in seven provinces

The CPI in Manitoba increased 1.5% on a year-over-year basis in September, after rising 0.9% in August. Consumers paid 3.4% more in the 12 months to September for food purchased from stores, which was a larger increase than in any other province. The fresh vegetables index (+11.7%) contributed the most to this rise in prices. Among the provinces, prices for household equipment fell the most year over year in Manitoba during September.

In British Columbia, the CPI gained 2.0% year over year, matching the increase in August. The homeowners' replacement cost index (+7.1%) contributed the most to the rise in the CPI in this province, and also matched the gain in August. The gasoline index (+8.9%) decelerated on a year-over-year basis compared with August. British Columbia was the only province to register a deceleration in this index.

Consumer prices in New Brunswick rose 1.7% year over year in September, following a 1.8% increase in August. The telephone services index fell 2.5% in the 12-month period ending in September, which contributed the most to the decline in prices in this province. The traveller accommodation index decreased by 4.5% on a year-over-year basis in September, following a 15.0% increase in August. In contrast, consumers paid more for recreational vehicles and outboard motors in September compared with the same month a year earlier.

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2% in September, matching the gain in August.

Chart 4: Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index
Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index

Chart 4: Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index

In September, five major components increased on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, while three decreased.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis in September, the transportation index (+1.1%) posted the largest gain, while the clothing and footwear index (-1.0%) posted the largest decline.

Chart 5: Tuition fees index, annual average, Canada, 1975 to 2016
Tuition fees index, annual average, Canada, 1975 to 2016

Chart 5: Tuition fees index, annual average, Canada, 1975 to 2016

FULL DOCUMENT: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/171020/dq171020a-eng.pdf

StatCan. THE GLOBE AND MAIL. OCTOBER 20, 2017. Little need for ‘urgency’ on rates as inflation still tame, analysts say
DAVID PARKINSON, ECONOMICS REPORTER

A hurricane-related surge in gasoline prices helped send Canada's inflation rate to a five-month high in September, in a key economic release that comes just days before the Bank of Canada's next interest-rate decision.

Another release, though, showed that higher pump prices weren't enough to keep Canada's retails sales from a surprise decline in August.

Statistics Canada reported that Canada's consumer price index was up 1.6 per cent year over year in September, up from August's 1.4 per cent. It was the third straight month that the country's year-over-year inflation rate has risen, after sinking to a 20-month low of 1 per cent in June. Inflation has now returned levels last seen in April.

The latest evidence of a rising inflation trend comes as the Bank of Canada's top brass prepares for a rate decision next Wednesday, its first since the two consecutive rate increases it announced in July and September. The central bank has been anticipating a pick-up in inflation in light of Canada's brisk economic pace this year – and, indeed, used that argument as part of its justification for its rate hikes. But the inflation rate remains well below the bank's target of 2 per cent, which serves as its formal guide for rate policy.

And there was little pick-up in the Bank of Canada's three preferred measures for so-called "core inflation" – gauging broad underlying price pressures in the economy, after filtering out temporary blips and isolated pockets of price volatility. On average, the three core readings came in at 1.6 per cent; two of the three measures held steady, while one edged up 0.1 percentage point.

The key driver of the overall inflation rate in September was gasoline – historically one of the most volatile components of CPI. Pump prices jumped 5.9 per cent month over month, on top of a 2.9-per-cent rise in August; both months reflected the impact of Hurricane Harvey, which forced the temporary shutdown of about one-quarter of U.S. refining capacity in late August and into September, straining North American fuel supplies. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices were up 14 per cent.

Excluding gasoline, the annual inflation rate would have been a much more modest 1.1 per cent in September, unchanged from July and August, Statscan said.

"Outside of energy prices, inflation made little progress in September," said Toronto-Dominion Bank senior economist James Marple in a research note. "With inflation still showing some signs of softness, there is little need for urgency on the monetary policy front."

Economists suggested that the rise in the Canadian dollar – which is up more than 7 per cent against its U.S. counterpart since early June, when the Bank of Canada started hinting at pending rate increases – may be cooling inflation, as it dampens the cost of imports.

At the same time as the inflation report, Statistics Canada also released retail sales numbers for August, which showed a disappointing decline of 0.3 per cent month over month, reversing much of July's 0.4-per-cent gain. And that drop came despite higher prices for retail goods, particularly gasoline; on a volume basis, excluding the impact of price changes, retail sales slumped 0.7 per cent in the month.

Gas-station sales were up 3.1 per cent month over month, largely due to the rise in pump prices. Sales in the auto sector rose 0.7 per cent. But food and beverage sales fell 2.5 per cent, snapping four straight months of increases.

As well, Statscan noted that retail segments tied to housing investment also showed declines, with the building materials and gardening equipment/supplies down 1.9 per cent, while home furnishings fell 2.4 per cent. The declines may be a symptom of the recent slowing of the red-hot housing market in Toronto and surrounding regions.

"While the retail dip doesn't destroy the bigger picture of consumer strength, it reinforces the theme that overall growth is now set to cool after a strong run," said Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, in a research note. He suggested that the latest evidence of slowing should be enough to keep the Bank of Canada on hold in next week's rate decision.

"We continue to look for GDP [growth] to ease to around a 2 per cent annual rate in the third quarter [from 4.5 per cent in the second quarter], and for the Bank of Canada to now stand aside for the remainder of this year to reassess," Mr. Porter said.

StatCan. REUTERS. OCTOBER 20, 2017. Canada annual inflation rises in September on gasoline, food costs

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to the highest in five months in September on higher prices for gasoline and food, moving closer to the central bank’s target, data from Statistics Canada showed on Friday.

The annual inflation rate rose to 1.6 percent last month from 1.4 percent in August, the highest since April and matching economists’ forecasts.

Underlying measures of inflation watched by the Bank of Canada also firmed, with CPI trim, which excludes upside and downside outliers, rising to 1.5 percent.

CPI median, which shows the median inflation rate across CPI components, held at 1.8 percent after the previous month was revised higher, while CPI common, which the central bank says is the best gauge of the economy’s underperformance, was unchanged at 1.5 percent.

The Bank of Canada, which is largely expected to hold interest rates at 1 percent next week after two back-to-back increases, has an inflation target of 2 percent.

Overall, prices were up in six of the eight major components of the consumer price index, led by a 3.8 percent annual increase in transportation costs. That was driven by higher gasoline prices amid supply disruptions due to Hurricane Harvey.

Food prices rose 1.4 percent, partly due to some of last year’s dampening effects starting to wear off. Higher shelter costs also boosted inflation, with prices up 1.4 percent.

Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama



RETAIL



StatCan. 2017-10-20. Retail trade, August 2017

Retail sales — Canada: $48.9 billion
August 2017: -0.3% decrease (monthly change)
Source(s): CANSIM table 080-0020

After increasing 0.4% in July, retail sales declined 0.3% in August to $48.9 billion. Sales were down in 8 of 11 subsectors, representing 57% of retail trade.

Lower sales at food and beverage stores more than offset higher sales at gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers. Excluding the latter two subsectors, retail sales were down 1.3%.

In volume terms, retail sales decreased 0.7%.

Chart 1: Retail sales decrease in August
Retail sales decrease in August

Chart 1: Retail sales decrease in August

Food and beverage stores post the largest decline

Following four consecutive monthly increases, sales at food and beverage stores (-2.5%) declined in August. The decrease was largely attributable to lower sales at supermarkets and other grocery stores (-2.8%). Sales at specialty food stores (+1.4%) were up for the third month in a row.

Sales were down at store types traditionally associated with housing purchases and home renovation in August. Sales at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-1.9%) and furniture and home furnishings stores (-2.4%) declined for the second consecutive month.

Gasoline stations (+3.1%) posted their first sales gain in four months, largely reflecting higher prices at the pump. According to the Consumer Price Index, on an unadjusted basis, the price of gasoline rose 2.9% in August.

Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers increased 0.7%, attributable to higher sales at new car dealers (+0.7%) and, to a lesser extent, used car dealers (+5.6%).

Sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores (+0.5%) continued their upward trend in August. Results were mixed among store types, as higher sales at clothing stores (+1.2%) more than offset the declines at shoe (-1.6%) and jewellery, luggage and leather goods (-1.8%) stores.

Retail sales down in six provinces

Retail sales were down in six provinces in August. Lower sales in Quebec and British Columbia accounted for the majority of the decline.

Quebec (-1.2%) reported the largest decrease in dollar terms, largely as a result of lower sales at new car dealers.

Following five straight monthly increases, British Columbia (-1.0%) posted lower sales in August. Sales were down across most store types.

After increasing 1.3% in July, retail sales in Saskatchewan fell 2.0%. The decline was largely attributable to lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers and food and beverage stores, and coincided with the application of the Provincial Sales Tax to insurance services.

Retail sales in Ontario (+0.3%) rose for the fifth time in six months.

In Nova Scotia (+1.7%), sales increased for the fourth consecutive month on higher sales at new car dealers. Excluding sales at this store type, retail sales in Nova Scotia decreased in August.

Retail sales decrease in two of three census metropolitan areas measured

Nearly 30% of total retail sales take place in Canada's three largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs)—Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver.

In August, seasonally adjusted retail sales declined in Vancouver (-1.1%) and Montréal (-1.0%), while Toronto reported a 2.9% gain.

E-commerce sales by Canadian retailers

The figures in this section are based on unadjusted (that is, not seasonally adjusted) estimates.

On an unadjusted basis, retail e-commerce sales were $1.2 billion in August, accounting for 2.3% of total retail trade. On a year-over-year basis, retail e-commerce increased 41.9%, while total unadjusted retail sales rose 8.8%.

FULL DOCUMENT: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/171020/dq171020b-eng.pdf

StatCan. REUTERS. OCTOBER 20, 2017. Canada's surprise Aug retail sales drop boosts bets central bank will hold rates
Leah Schnurr

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canadian retail sales unexpectedly fell in August, pointing to a slowdown in growth after a hot first half of the year and bolstering expectations the Bank of Canada will refrain from hiking interest rates again next week.

Separate data from Statistics Canada on Friday showed the annual inflation rate rose to 1.6 percent in September, matching forecasts and the highest in five months.

Markets and economists focused on the retail sales report, which showed sales fell 0.3 percent, against forecasts for a 0.5 percent increase. Volumes declined 0.7 percent, the biggest decrease since March 2016.

Analysts said the figures were in line with anticipated slower economic growth in the second half of the year after a strong performance that put Canada at the top of the Group of Seven.

“The Canadian economy is notably cooling down after the remarkable run it had up until about the middle part of the year,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

“The retail sales result does fit with that pattern of somewhat more modest activity.”

It also solidified bets the Bank of Canada will hold interest rates at 1.0 percent when it meets next week after two back-to-back increases. Market odds of no move rose to 81 percent from 72.8 percent before the data was released. [CA/POLL]

The Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback following the two reports. [CAD/]

The decline in sales was led by a 2.5 percent drop at food and beverage stores, as well as stores that are typically linked to home purchases and renovations.

The increase in September’s inflation rate was driven by higher gasoline prices amid supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Harvey, as well as more expensive food and shelter costs.

While underlying measures of inflation firmed somewhat, economists said they were still far enough away from the central bank’s 2 percent target to allow policymakers to take their time raising rates from here.

CPI trim, which excludes upside and downside outliers, rose to 1.5 percent.

CPI median, which shows the median inflation rate across CPI components, held at 1.8 percent after the previous month was revised higher, while CPI common, which the central bank says is the best gauge of the economy’s underperformance, was unchanged at 1.5 percent.

Still, many are betting the central bank will have room to hike again in December, with market odds at 47.2 percent.

Additional reporting by Susan Taylor in Toronto; Editing by Phil Berlowitz

BLOOMBERG. 20 October 2017. Retail Drop, Subdued Inflation Put Bank of Canada Rates on Hold
By Theophilos Argitis

  • August retail sales fall 0.3%, versus 0.5% gain forecast
  • Outside of gasoline, few signs of inflationary pressures

An unexpected decline in retail sales and scant evidence of inflation pressure will give the Bank of Canada little reason to press ahead with a third-straight rate increase next week.

Statistics Canada reported Friday retail sales declined 0.3 percent in August, versus a median forecast of a 0.5 percent gain. They also showed that excluding a jump in gasoline, inflation was little changed in September.

The two indicators are the last of any significance before the Bank of Canada’s Oct. 25 rate decision, and suggest no urgency for Governor Stephen Poloz to increase borrowing costs again after two hikes since July. The Canadian dollar fell 0.6 percent to C$1.2558 after the report. Odds of a rate increase next week fell to about 19 percent, from 21 percent yesterday, swaps trading suggests.

“A very slow turn in prices, and what looks like another ho-hum month for GDP augurs for a dovish take on the Bank of Canada on Wednesday next week,” Nick Exarhos, an economist at CIBC Economics, said in a note to investors.

The retail sales number was the big disappointment, and reinforces expectations the nation’s economy is heading for a slowdown after strong growth earlier this year. Monthly retail sales are little changed since touching a 2017 high in May. In volume terms, sales fell 0.7 percent in August, the biggest decline since March 2016.

Motor vehicle sales were one sector of strength, and the total number also got a boost from higher gasoline prices. But excluding those two sectors, sales were down 1.3 percent.



Canadian consumer price inflation in September jumped to its highest level since April on gasoline prices, but the gain was less than expected.

Annual inflation accelerated to 1.6 percent on the higher gas prices, versus economist expectations for 1.7 percent. Excluding gas, the annual inflation rate was unchanged at 1.1 percent. The average of the Bank of Canada’s three key core inflation measures was 1.6 percent, versus 1.57 percent in August. The core rate is the highest since January

While the inflation rate remains below the central bank’s target, the Bank of Canada has justified this year’s rate hikes by citing quickly vanishing excess capacity in the economy and by claiming the forces keeping inflation subdued are temporary.

Outside of gasoline however, the report showed inflation pressures remain muted in most sectors.

— With assistance by Erik Hertzberg, and Greg Quinn



ECONOMY



Department of Finance Canada. October 19, 2017. Finance Minister Announces Fall Economic Statement for October 24

Ottawa, Ontario – When you have an economy that works for the middle class, you have a country that works for everyone. The Government of Canada's plan to invest in people, in communities and in the economy is working. As it takes the next steps in its plan, the Government will build on successes achieved over the last two years—from the more than 400,000 jobs that have been created, to lower taxes for the middle class and for small business, to a renewed relationship with Indigenous Peoples.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau today announced that the Fall Economic Statement will be tabled on October 24, 2017.

The Statement will build on a plan that is working, and take important next steps to ensure the middle class and those working hard to join it share in the success we achieve as a country. The Statement will also affirm the Government's plan to reduce the small business tax rate to 9 per cent, while ensuring that this preferential rate is used to support growth and job creation, and not to provide tax advantages for the wealthy few.

On October 5, 2017, Minister Morneau met with private sector economists to gather their views on the Canadian and global economies, which will be reflected in the Fall Economic Statement. Canada has the fastest growing economy among G7 nations, with second-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth hitting 4.5 per cent. For the fiscal year that ended March 31, 2017, the budget deficit is $11.6 billion less than originally projected in Budget 2016.

Following consultations and open dialogue with stakeholders across the country, and with the needs of families as its highest priority, the Government is building an economy that works for the middle class and those working hard to join it.

Quick Facts

  • Canada's underlying economic and fiscal fundamentals remain sound: over the last four quarters, real GDP has grown at an average rate of 3.7 per cent—the strongest four-quarter period of expansion since 2006. The labour market has also been strong, with over 400,000 new jobs created in the last two years. 
  • The Government of Canada has taken significant steps towards helping families regain the confidence needed to help drive the economy forward. This includes cutting taxes for 9 million Canadians, introducing a new Canada Child Benefit, and strengthening the Canada Pension Plan so that future generations of workers can retire with dignity.
  • The Government is committed to sound fiscal management as it continues to make investments to support long-term economic growth and a strong middle class, while preserving Canada's low-debt advantage for current and future generations.

Quote

"Our plan to grow and strengthen the middle class is working, but there is more to do. As our economy grows we will make sure the benefits of that growth are felt by the middle class. And we will continue to listen to Canadians as we move forward to level the playing field and invest in Canada's future, while supporting the middle class and those working hard to join it."

- Bill Morneau, Minister of Finance



INTERNATIONAL TRADE



The Globe and Mail. The Canadian Press. 20 Oct 2017. Global growth boosts Canadian exports

Export Development Canada says exports are growing significantly as both the U.S. and the global economy continue to improve.
The Crown corporation said in a report out on Thursday that overall exports are expected to grow 8 per cent in 2017, led by “massive gains” in the commodity space, and 4 per cent next year.
“Things are definitely improving with respect to the U.S. and global economies, notwithstanding the issues around trade negotiations and political risk,” Todd Evans, principal at EDC Economics, said in an interview ahead of the report’s release. “When it comes to a synchronized global upturn, this is pretty good. In terms of that synchronicity it’s pretty much as good as it gets.”
At $77-billion, EDC says oil and gas exports are forecast to have grown by 31 per cent, after production was hit last year by the Fort McMurray, Alta., wildfire.


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LGCJ.:
US ECONOMICS


VENEZUELA


U.S. Department of State. October 19, 2017. Venezuela: Illegitimate Parallel InstitutionsStatement. Heather Nauert, Department Spokesperson

Washington, DC - The United States condemns the Venezuelan government’s latest anti-democratic action: requiring newly elected governors to submit to the illegitimate Constituent Assembly to be sworn into office. The use of this illegitimate, parallel institution to take over the country’s constitutional authorities is alarming. This maneuver, on the heels of the October 15, fraudulent elections, is another example of the Maduro regime’s authoritarianism and disregard for the will of the Venezuelan people. We support a complete election audit by credible, internationally recognized entities, and the establishment of an independent National Electoral Council.


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U.S. Treasury Department. Office of Management and Budget (OMB). 10/20/2017. Joint Statement of Steven T. Mnuchin, Secretary of the Treasury, and Mick Mulvaney, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2017

WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Mick Mulvaney today released details of the fiscal year (FY) 2017 final budget results. The deficit in FY 2017 was $666 billion, $80 billion more than in the prior fiscal year, but $36 billion less than forecast in the FY 2018 Mid-Session Review (MSR). As a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the deficit was 3.5 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the previous year.[1] 

Growth in spending outpaced growth in tax receipts for the second year in a row as a result of historically subpar economic growth. Rising deficits show that smart spending restraint and pursuing policies that promote economic growth, like tax reform and reductions in regulatory burden, are critically necessary to promote long-term fiscal sustainability. 

“Today’s budget results underscore the importance of achieving robust and sustained economic growth. Through a combination of tax reform and regulatory relief, this country can return to higher levels of GDP growth, helping to erase our fiscal deficit,” said Secretary Mnuchin. “The Administration’s pro-growth policies will create better, higher-paying jobs, make American businesses competitive again, and bring back cash from offshore to invest here at home. This will help place the nation on a path to improved fiscal health and create prosperity for generations to come.”

“These numbers should serve as a smoke alarm for Washington, a reminder that we need to grow our economy again and get our fiscal house in order. We can do that through smart spending restraint, tax reform, and cutting red tape,” said Director Mulvaney. 

Summary of Fiscal Year 2017 Budget Results

Year-end data from the September 2017 Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government show that the deficit for FY 2017 was $666 billion, $80 billion higher than the prior year's deficit. As a percentage of GDP, the deficit was 3.5 percent, an increase from 3.2 percent in FY 2016 and above the average of 3.1 percent over the last 40 years. 

The FY 2017 deficit of $666 billion was $63 billion greater than the estimate in the FY 2018 Budget (Budget), and $36 billion less than estimated in the MSR, a supplemental update to the Budget published in July.


Table 1. Total Receipts, Outlays, and Deficit (in billions of dollars)
 
Receipts
Outlays
Deficit
FY 2016 Actual
3,267
3,852
-586
    Percentage of GDP
17.7%
20.9%
3.2%
FY 2017 Estimates:
    2018 Budget
3,460
4,062
-603
    2018 Mid-Session Review
3,344
4,045
-702
FY 2017 Actual
3,315
3,981
-666
    Percentage of GDP
17.3%
20.7%
3.5%
Note: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.


Government receipts totaled $3,315 billion in FY 2017. This was $48 billion higher than in FY 2016, an increase of 1.5 percent, below expectations from both the Budget and the MSR. As a percentage of GDP, receipts equaled 17.3 percent, 0.4 percentage point lower than in FY 2016 and 0.1 percentage point below the average over the last 40 years. The dollar increase in receipts for FY 2017 can be attributed to higher social insurance and retirement receipts and net individual income taxes, partially offset by lower deposits of earnings by the Federal Reserve. 

Outlays grew in FY 2017, but by less than expected in the Budget and the MSR, and decreased slightly as a percentage of GDP. Outlays were $3,981 billion, $128 billion above those in FY 2016, a 3.3 percent increase. As a percentage of GDP, outlays were 20.7 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than in the prior year, but above the 40-year average of 20.5 percent. Contributing to the dollar increase over FY 2016 were higher outlays for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and interest on the public debt. In addition, one-time upward revisions in estimates of credit subsidy for outstanding Federal loans and loan guarantees, primarily in the Departments of Education and Housing and Urban Development, increased outlays relative to FY 2016 by $55 billion. Lower spectrum auction receipts and higher spending by the Federal Emergency Management Administration for hurricane relief and recovery also contributed to the increase.

Total Federal borrowing from the public increased by $498 billion during FY 2017 to $14,667 billion. The increase in borrowing included $666 billion in borrowing to finance the deficit, partly offset by $167 billion related to other transactions that on net reduced the Government’s financing requirements, such as changes in cash balances and net disbursements for Federal credit programs. As a percentage of GDP, borrowing from the public declined from 76.7 percent of GDP at the end of FY 2016 to 76.3 percent of GDP at the end of FY 2017.  

Below are explanations of the differences between estimates in the MSR and the year-end actual amounts for receipts and agency outlays.

Fiscal Year 2017 Receipts

Total receipts for FY 2017 were $3,314.9 billion, $28.7 billion lower than the MSR estimate of $3,343.6 billion. This net decrease in receipts was primarily attributable to lower-than-estimated collections of deposits of earnings by the Federal Reserve, other miscellaneous receipts, and corporation income tax receipts.  Table 2 displays actual receipts and estimates from the Budget and the MSR by source. 

  • Individual income taxes were $1,587.1 billion, $3.2 billion higher than the MSR estimate. This increase is the net effect of higher withheld payments of individual income tax liability of $2.7 billion, lower nonwithheld payments of $1.7 billion, and lower-than-estimated refunds of $2.2 billion.
  • Corporation income taxes were $297.0 billion, $5.4 billion below the MSR estimate.  This difference reflects lower-than-expected payments of 2017 corporation income tax liability of $3.2 billion and higher-than-estimated refunds of $2.2 billion.
  • Social insurance and retirement receipts were $1,161.9 billion, $1.0 billion lower than the MSR estimate. This reduction is the result of lower-than-estimated deposits by States to the unemployment insurance trust fund of $1.0 billion.
  • Excise taxes were $83.8 billion, $3.7 billion below the MSR estimate.
  • Estate and gift taxes were $22.8 billion, $0.4 billion below the MSR estimate.
  • Customs duties were $34.6 billion, roughly equal to the MSR estimate. 
  • Miscellaneous receipts were $127.7 billion, $21.5 billion below the MSR estimate. Lower-than-expected deposits of earnings by the Federal Reserve accounted for $10.3 billion of this decrease relative to the MSR. The remaining decrease was attributable to lower-than-expected collections of various fees, penalties, forfeitures, and fines.

Fiscal Year 2017 Outlays

Total outlays were $3,980.6 billion for FY 2017, $64.7 billion below the MSR estimate. Table 3 displays actual outlays by agency and major program as well as estimates from the Budget and the MSR. The largest changes in outlays from the MSR were in the following areas:
  • Department of Defense — Outlays for the Department of Defense were $568.9 billion, $9.9 billion lower than the MSR estimate. This difference is mostly due to lower-than-expected outlays for operation and maintenance, which were $7.8 billion less than the MSR estimate. Operation and maintenance disbursements were less than anticipated for Army contracts from FY 2016 and prior years, reimbursements from the Coalition Support Fund, and Defense Health Program and counter-ISIL “train and equip” contracts. Additionally, outlays were lower than expected by $1.5 billion for Army military personnel, $1.4 billion for revolving and management funds due to lower-than-expected fuel costs, and $1.0 billion for disbursements against aircraft procurement contracts. These differences were partially offset by $2.2 billion of higher-than-expected outlays for research, development, test and evaluation.
  • Department of Education — Outlays for the Department of Education were $111.7 billion, $1.8 billion higher than the MSR estimate. This difference was driven by outlays for higher education programs. In the Pell Grant program, outlays were $0.9 billion higher than projected in the MSR, due to faster-than-expected disbursement patterns. For the Federal Direct Student Loan program, because of changes in the mix of activity in direct student loans, $0.7 billion more in positive subsidy outlays for the FY 2017 loan cohort were recorded in FY 2017 than estimated in the MSR. 
  • Department of Health and Human Services — Outlays for the Department of Health and Human Services were $1,116.8 billion, $11.8 billion lower than the MSR estimate. Outlays for Medicaid spending were $3.8 billion less than projected at MSR, driven primarily by lower benefit expenditures than was anticipated during the second half of the year. National Institutes of Health (NIH)'s outlays were $1.5 billion lower than projected, due in part to lower-than-expected disbursement for research grants in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year. The Service and Supply Fund (SSF) outlaid $0.9 billion less than expected at MSR. SSF expected higher outlays in FY 2017 mainly due to an anticipated increase in contracts serviced; however many of these contracts will be outlaid starting in FY 2018 instead. Outlays for the Public Health and Social Services Emergency Fund (PHSSEF) were lower than expected due to procurements that occurred much later in the fiscal year than originally planned.
  • Department of Homeland Security — Outlays for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) were $50.5 billion, $2.2 billion lower than the MSR estimate. Outlays in a number of DHS components were below the MSR estimates. Outlays for Customs and Border Protection were $1.4 billion below the MSR estimates, due to slower-than-expected spending for procurements and construction for customs enforcement and border protection infrastructure projects. Outlays for the National Protection and Programs Directorate were $1.2 billion lower than the MSR estimate, due to slower-than-expected outlays of the agency’s cyber budget. Outlays for the Transportation Security Administration were $0.9 billion lower than the MSR estimate, due to slower-than-expected outlays from obligations for airport security construction projects. Partially offsetting these decreases, outlays for the Federal Emergency Management Agency were $2.0 billion higher than the MSR estimates because of response activities related to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
  • Department of Justice — Outlays for the Department of Justice were $31.0 billion, $3.4 billion lower than the MSR estimate. This difference is primarily due to payments from the Assets Forfeiture Program being $2.3 billion less than estimated in the MSR. Also contributing to the overall difference was higher-than-expected receipts from fines and penalties, which were $0.7 billion higher than the MSR estimate. Outlays were $0.5 billion lower than the MSR for programs within the Office of Justice Programs partially due to pending litigation. Outlays were also lower across many other programs due to delayed action on FY 2017 appropriations. 
  • Department of Labor — Outlays for the Department of Labor were $40.1 billion, $3.6 billion lower than the MSR estimate. Nearly $2 billion of this difference is attributable to lower-than-projected unemployment insurance benefit outlays because the actual unemployment rate was lower than assumed in the MSR economic forecast. Another $1.5 billion of the difference is attributable to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), due to both gross outlays being less than expected and offsetting receipts being greater than expected. The majority of the change in outlays is related to lower-than-expected payouts in the single employer program. PBGC also anticipated a substantial investment loss in FY 2017, but experienced a profit, leading to much higher offsetting receipts than anticipated in the MSR.
  • Department of State — Outlays for the Department of State were $27.1 billion, $3.0 billion lower than the MSR estimate. Outlays were lower than expected for Department of State foreign assistance programs by $1.6 billion, mostly due to lower-than-anticipated spending for Global Health Programs, which was driven primarily by a delay in lump sum payments to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. The delay was necessary due to a shortfall in confirmed statutorily required matching payments from other donors. In addition, lower-than-expected outlays for capital-intensive programs such as new overseas facility construction and delayed payments for contributions to international organizations and peacekeeping were primarily responsible for the remaining difference of $1.3 billion from the MSR estimate.
  • Department of Transportation — Outlays for the Department of Transportation were $79.4 billion, $2.2 billion lower than the MSR estimate. Nearly $0.9 billion of this difference is due to lower-than-expected outlays for highways and transit programs. Most of the remaining difference is an accumulation of lower-than-expected spending across a number of programs.  Late-year congressional action on FY 2017 appropriations delayed grant-making and hiring activity across the agency.
  • Department of the Treasury — Outlays for the Department of the Treasury were $546.4 billion, $17.3 billion lower than the MSR estimate. Virtually all of the difference is due to interest on the public debt, which was $16.4 billion lower than the MSR estimate. Interest on the public debt is paid to the public and to trust funds and other Government accounts. The difference is the result of lower-than-projected interest paid to the public on inflation-indexed securities and other marketable Treasury securities, as well as lower-than-projected interest paid to Government accounts.
  • International Assistance Programs — Outlays for International Assistance Programs were $18.9 billion, $4.1 billion lower than the MSR estimate. This difference is largely due to net outlays for Department of State Foreign Military Sales that were more than $3 billion lower than the MSR estimate due to higher-than-anticipated receipts received from foreign governments for weapons purchases.
  • Social Security Administration — Outlays for the Social Security Administration were $1,000.8 billion, $1.7 billion lower than the MSR estimate. The difference, which is relatively small in comparison to total program outlays, is primarily attributable to lower-than-expected outlays for the Disability Insurance Trust Fund and Supplemental Security Income programs.
  • United States Postal Service — Net outlays for the United States Postal Service were -$2.2 billion, $5.5 billion lower than the MSR estimate. Outlays were lower than the MSR estimate due largely to the failure of the Postal Service to make required payments for health and pension contributions.
  • Railroad Retirement Board — Outlays for the Railroad Retirement Board were $5.2 billion, $1.7 billion lower than the MSR estimate, due largely to the National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust’s unrealized gains and losses on investments. Actual returns to the Trust were much higher than projected in the MSR due to favorable market conditions in the last few months of FY 2017.
  • Undistributed Offsetting Receipts — Undistributed Offsetting Receipts were -$236.9 billion, $6.6 billion higher than the MSR estimate. Net outlays for interest received by trust funds were $3.0 billion higher than the MSR estimate (lower net collections). The difference is due largely to the interest earnings of the Military Retirement Fund, which were $4.2 billion lower than the MSR estimate, partly offset by higher-than-projected interest earnings in some other programs. This intragovernmental interest is paid out of the Department of the Treasury account for interest on the public debt and has no net impact on total Federal Government outlays. In addition, receipts for employer share, employee retirement were $2.5 billion higher than MSR estimates (lower net collections) primarily due to the failure of the Postal Service to make required accrual payments to the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefit Fund.


USDoC. USITC. U.S. Department of Commerce Initiates Antidumping Duty Investigations of Imports of Polytetrafluoroethylene Resin from India and the People’s Republic of China and a Countervailing Duty Investigation of Imports of Polytetrafluoroethylene Resin from India

Today, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross announced the initiation of new antidumping duty (AD) investigations to determine whether imports of polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) resin from the People’s Republic of China (China) and India are being dumped in the United States, and a countervailing duty (CVD) investigation to determine whether producers of PTFE resin in India are receiving alleged unfair subsidies.

“The Department will act swiftly, while assuring a full and fair assessment of the facts, to ensure that everyone trades on a level playing field,” said Secretary Ross. “The Trump administration is committed to the enforcement of America’s vital trade laws that ensure U.S. businesses and workers have a fair chance to compete.”

These AD and CVD investigations were initiated based on petitions filed by the Chemours Company FC LLC (DE) on September 28. The estimated dumping margins alleged by the petitioner range from 23.4 to 408.9 percent and 15.8 to 128.1 percent for China and India, respectively and the unfair subsidies are estimated to be above de minimis for India.

In the AD investigations, the Commerce Department will determine whether imports of PTFE resin from China and India are being dumped in the U.S. market at less than fair value.

In the CVD investigation, the Commerce Department will determine whether Indian producers of PTFE resin are receiving unfair government subsidies.

If the Commerce Department determines that PTFE resin from China and India is being dumped into the U.S. market and India is providing unfair government subsidies, and if the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) determines that dumped and/or unfairly subsidized U.S. imports of PTFE resin from China and India are causing injury to the U.S. industry, the Commerce Department will impose duties on those imports in the amount of dumping and/or unfair subsidization found to exist.

In 2016, imports of PTFE resin from China and India were valued at an estimated $24.6 million and $14.3 million, respectively.

Enforcement of U.S. trade law is a prime focus of the Trump administration. From January 20 through October 19, 2017, Commerce has initiated 73 AD and CVD investigations – a 52 percent increase over the previous year. Commerce currently maintains 412 AD and CVD duty orders which provide relief to American companies and industries impacted by unfair trade.

Next Steps:

During the Commerce Department’s investigations into whether PTFE resin is being dumped and/or unfairly subsidized, the ITC will conduct its own investigations into whether the U.S. industry and its workforce are being harmed by such imports. The ITC will make its preliminary determinations on or before November 13, 2017. If the ITC preliminarily determines that there is injury or threat of injury, then the Commerce Department investigations will continue, with a preliminary CVD determination scheduled for December 22, 2017, and preliminary AD determinations scheduled for March 7, 2018, unless these deadlines are extended.

If the Commerce Department preliminarily determines that dumping or unfair subsidization is occurring, then it will instruct U.S. Customs and Border Protection to start collecting cash deposits from all U.S. companies importing the subject PTFE resin from China and India.

Final determinations by the Commerce Department in these cases are scheduled for March 7, 2018, for the CVD investigation, and May 21, 2018, for the AD investigations, but those dates may be extended. If the Commerce Department finds that products are not being dumped or unfairly subsidized, or the ITC finds in its final determinations there is no harm to the U.S. industry, then the investigations will be terminated and no duties will be applied.

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Foreign companies that price their products in the U.S. market below the cost of production or below prices in their home markets are subject to “antidumping” duties. Companies that receive unfair subsidies from their governments, such as grants, loans, equity infusions, tax breaks and production inputs, are subject to “countervailing duties” aimed at directly countering those subsidies.

Fact sheet: http://enforcement.trade.gov/download/factsheets/factsheet-multiple-ptfe-resin-ad-cvd-initiation-101917.pdf


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ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA


FGV. IBRE. 20-Out-2017. Monitor do PIB. Monitor do PIB. Monitor do PIB sinaliza crescimento de 0,2% no mês de agosto

O Monitor do PIB-FGV sinaliza crescimento de 0,2% do PIB em agosto e de 0,6% no trimestre móvel até agosto, em comparação ao trimestre imediatamente anterior, de acordo com a série ajustada sazonalmente. Em ambas as frequências, os resultados apontam para a terceira variação positiva consecutiva do indicador.

“No mês de agosto, a economia continuou a crescer devido a não só o bom desempenho da agropecuária, mas também de segmentos que, apesar de ainda continuarem em níveis muito baixos, já começaram a mostrar sinais de melhora; este é o caso da construção civil e o da formação bruta de capital fixo que são fundamentais para uma recuperação mais consistente da economia a médio e longo prazo”, afirma Claudio Considera, coordenador do Monitor do PIB-FGV.

grafico12010

1) Na comparação com o mesmo período do ano anterior, o PIB apresentou crescimento de 1,1%, no trimestre móvel findo em agosto. Os destaques foram os desempenhos da agropecuária (+12,0%), da extrativa mineral (+3,5%), da transformação (+1,9%), do comércio (+3,5%) e dos transportes (+2,9%). A construção, embora apresente tendência ascendente, ainda se encontra em significativa retração (-6,0%) enquanto serviços de informação vem apresentando taxas mais negativas desde o trimestre findo em maio de 2017 chegando a 3,6% no trimestre findo em agosto. Na taxa mensal interanual, o PIB apresentou crescimento de 2,0% no mês de agosto, sendo esta a quarta taxa mensal positiva consecutiva.

grafico22010

2) O consumo das famílias apresentou crescimento de 1,8% no trimestre móvel findo em agosto, comparativamente ao mesmo trimestre em 2016; esta é a terceira variação positiva do componente após registrar 28 trimestres móveis consecutivos de queda. Observa-se, no Gráfico 3, que todos os bens de consumo continuam com aceleração do crescimento: o consumo de bens não duráveis cresceu 1,3%, o de semiduráveis 9,0% e o consumo de duráveis 9,3%. A única taxa negativa foi a de consumo de serviços (-0,5%) que contribuiu para com -0,3 p.p para o total do consumo das famílias.

grafico32010

3) A formação bruta de capital fixo (FBCF) apresentou retração de 3,0% no trimestre móvel jun-jul-ago, comparativamente ao mesmo trimestre em 2016. Apesar da retração, todos os componentes da FBCF apresentaram melhora com relação as taxas divulgadas no trimestre móvel até julho. O componente de máquinas e equipamentos continua na trajetória de crescimento (+5,1%), contribuindo com 1,8 p.p. para a melhora do indicador. Já o componente de construção, apesar de ainda muito negativo (-8,5%), está em trajetória ascendente pelo terceiro mês consecutivo. O mesmo ocorre com o componente de outros que apresentou queda de -4,5% no trimestre móvel até agosto após ter apresentado retração de 6,0% no 2º trimestre do corrente ano.

grafico42010

4) A taxa de investimento (FBCF/PIB), a preços constantes, após alcançar o ápice de 24,3% em outubro de 2013, declinou sistematicamente até o início de 2017 e, no mês de agosto do corrente ano, apresenta sinais de melhora chegando a 18,3%.

grafico52010

5) A exportação apresentou crescimento de 7,3% no trimestre móvel jun-jul-ago, comparativamente ao mesmo trimestre em 2016. O destaque positivo se deve ao desempenho da exportação dos produtos da agropecuária (+20,8%), da extrativa mineral (+27,7%) e de bens de consumo duráveis (+38,3%).

grafico62010

6) A importação apresentou retração de 0,3% no trimestre móvel jun-jul-ago, comparativamente ao mesmo trimestre em 2016. Chama a atenção o desempenho negativo dos produtos agropecuários (-36,9%) e dos bens de capital (-25,6%); e, de destaque positivo, o desempenho dos bens de consumo semiduráveis (+52,1%).

grafico72010

7) Em termos monetários, o PIB acumulado em 2017 até o mês de agosto, em valores correntes, alcançou a cifra aproximada de 4 trilhões, 368 bilhões, 219 milhões de Reais.

METODOLOGIA DO PIB NOMINAL

Com relação a este valor nominal chama-se a atenção que não existe ainda publicada a metodologia oficial do Monitor do PIB com relação a valores nominais. Contudo, buscou-se seguir, o mais próximo possível, a metodologia do IBGE no cálculo das Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. Dessa forma, foi feita uma meticulosa análise da adequação dos índices de preços sugeridos pela metodologia do IBGE aos deflatores efetivos da série nominal de cada produto divulgados na Tabela de Recursos e Usos (anual com último dado de 2014).

Seguindo a orientação da metodologia do IBGE foram coletadas informações de IPA, IPCA e outros, transformados em índices e aplicados nos dados de volume dos produtos calculados para o Monitor do PIB. Com as informações nominais assim obtidas, foram aplicados os pesos de cada produto dentro de cada atividade obtendo-se os índices nominais de cada atividade do Monitor do PIB. Após esse processo calcula-se o deflator implícito do PIB entre as séries nominais e reais.

Até o segundo trimestre de 2017 há informações de valores divulgadas pelo IBGE o que possibilita ajustar as informações mensais do índice nominal do Monitor do PIB ao de valor do IBGE já conhecido, reconstruindo toda a série do IBGE trimestral, em valores nominais mensais. Para os meses que ainda não há informação do IBGE (o caso de julho e agosto de 2017, por exemplo), aplica-se o deflator encontrado antes do ajuste dos dados ao IBGE. A partir do momento que o IBGE divulgar as informações do 3º trimestre de 2017, os valores de julho, agosto e setembro serão ajustados a este valor, e assim por diante.

MUDANÇAS METODOLÓGICAS

Neste número do Monitor, e que será adotado doravante até que se tenha a Tabela de Recursos e Usos de 2015, resolveu-se mudar a ponderação das atividades da indústria de transformação; como é fato conhecido, a atividade de refino de petróleo e coque apresentou nos anos de 2010 até a última TRU disponível (2014), Valor Adicionado negativo. Este sinal negativo impacta negativamente a ponderação da variação mensal desta atividade. Dessa forma, variações negativas em volume da PIM-PF, traduzida para Contas Nacionais, se transformam em variações positivas e vice-versa afetando assim as informações de 2015 em diante falseando os resultados da indústria de transformação, tendo em vista o peso da atividade de refino de petróleo e coque.

A solução para esse problema foi mudar a ponderação das atividades da indústria de transformação, que era feita pela participação do Valor Adicionado de cada atividade no total do Valor Adicionado da indústria de transformação, para a participação do valor da produção das atividades no total do valor da produção da indústria de transformação, a partir de 2010. Isto feito verificou-se uma maior aderência dos resultados da indústria de transformação assim obtidos aos dados efetivos das Contas Nacionais Trimestrais do IBGE.

Uma alteração adicional foi a mudança na metodologia de cálculo da exportação, adequando-a à metodologia de cálculo dos indicadores do comércio exterior atualmente obtidos no âmbito Núcleo de Contas Nacionais do IBRE-FGV. Esta adequação continua em estudo e será estendida para as importações.

APÊNDICE – NOTA EXPLICATIVA

O Monitor do PIB-FGV estima mensalmente o PIB brasileiro em volume e em valor. O objetivo de sua criação foi prover a sociedade de um indicador mensal do PIB, tendo como base a mesma metodologia das Contas Nacionais do IBGE. Sua série inicia-se em 2000 e incorpora todas as informações disponíveis das Contas Nacionais do IBGE (Tabelas de Recursos e Usos, até 2014, último ano de divulgação) bem como as informações do PIB-Tri do IBGE, até o último trimestre divulgado (segundo trimestre de 2017).

O indicador é ajustado ao PIB-Tri do IBGE sempre que há mudanças metodológicas e a cada trimestre divulgado. Ou seja, nos trimestres calendários, as médias trimestrais dos índices de volume do Monitor do PIB-FGV serão iguais aos indicadores trimestrais, sem ajuste sazonal, do PIB-Tri do IBGE. Nos trimestres calendário, são utilizados os mesmos modelos do IBGE para calcular todas as séries desagregadas com ajuste sazonal, tanto pela ótica da oferta, como da demanda. Para o ajuste sazonal mensal é utilizado o modelo mensal do IBC-Br; para os trimestres móveis utiliza-se uma média desses ajustes mensais.

Assim, as estimativas do Monitor do PIB-FGV antecedem o PIB-Tri do IBGE nos meses em que este é divulgado. E, nos meses em que não há divulgação, o Monitor representa uma excelente antecipação para as tendências do PIB e seus componentes.

O Monitor do PIB-FGV compõe-se de um relatório descrevendo os principais resultados com ilustrações gráficas e de uma tabela Excel com informações de volume, em valores correntes, e a preços de 1995 das 12 atividades econômicas que agrupadas formam os 3 setores de atividade (agropecuária, indústria e serviços). Apresenta, ainda, o Valor Adicionado a preços básicos, os impostos sobre os produtos e o PIB e também os componentes do PIB pela ótica da demanda. Outro ponto a ser destacado é que o Monitor torna disponíveis desagregações que não são divulgadas pelo IBGE, mas que são relevantes para um melhor entendimento da absorção doméstica e da demanda externa. As desagregações disponibilizadas pelo Monitor são:

Consumo das Famílias: bens de consumo duráveis, semiduráveis, não duráveis e serviços. Adicionalmente eles são classificados em nacionais e importados;

Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo: em máquinas e equipamentos, construção e outros. Para máquinas e equipamentos e outros, há a desagregação entre nacionais e importados;

Exportações e Importações: em produtos agropecuários, produtos da extrativa mineral, produtos industrializados de consumo (duráveis, semiduráveis e não duráveis), produtos industrializados de uso intermediário, bens de capitais e serviços.
São divulgadas as séries de base móvel, séries encadeadas, séries encadeadas dessazonalizadas, as taxas mensais, trimestrais e anuais comparadas a igual período do ano anterior e as taxas mensais e trimestrais comparadas a período imediatamente anterior, e os valores nominais correntes e a preços de 1995.

Metodologia: http://portalibre.fgv.br/main.jsp?lumPageId=4028818B3BDE4A56013C071D12034B4B&lumItemId=8A7C82C54F7DAFDC01515E1BC9904F17

DOCUMENTO: http://portalibre.fgv.br/main.jsp?lumPageId=402880972283E1AA0122841CE9191DD3&contentId=8A7C82C55EC04CF1015F3931106818C7

IBGE. 20/10/2017. IPCA-15 vai a 0,34% em outubro

O Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo 15 (IPCA-15) foi de 0,34% em outubro e ficou 0,23 ponto percentual (p.p.) acima da taxa de setembro (0,11%).

PERÍODOTAXA
Outubro0,34%
Setembro0,11%
Outubro 20160,19%
Acumulado no ano2,25%
Acumulado em 12 meses2,71%

O acumulado no ano está em 2,25%, inferior aos 6,11% do mesmo período de 2016. É o menor acumulado para um mês de outubro desde 2006 (2,22%). Nos últimos doze meses, o índice ficou em 2,71%, acima dos 2,56% registrados nos 12 meses imediatamente anteriores. Em outubro de 2016, o IPCA-15 havia sido de 0,19%.

O índice de outubro foi influenciado, principalmente, pelos combustíveis: houve alta de 5,36% nos combustíveis domésticos, pertencentes ao grupo Habitação (0,66%), e de 1,29% nos combustíveis de veículos, incluído no grupo Transportes (0,60%).

O gás de botijão, integrante do grupo Habitação, subiu 5,72% e teve o maior impacto individual no índice (0,07 p.p.). Entre setembro e outubro, a Petrobrás anunciou três reajustes nas distribuidoras para o botijão de gás de 13 kg: 12,2% a partir de 06 de setembro; 6,90% a partir de 26 de setembro e 12,9% a partir de 11 de outubro. Com isso, o item variou dos 2,10% registrados na região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro até os 7,89% da região metropolitana de Belém.

Ainda no grupo Habitação, a alta na taxa de água e esgoto (0,11%) reflete o reajuste de 4,33% na região metropolitana de Fortaleza, a partir de 23 de setembro, em complementação aos 12,90% em vigor desde junho de 2017. Já a energia elétrica apresentou queda de 0,15% e as variações oscilaram entre -1,82% da região metropolitana de Porto Alegre e 3,77% em Salvador.

O grupo Transportes (0,60%) desacelerou em relação ao índice de setembro (1,25%). Tal movimento foi influenciado pela gasolina (de 3,76% em setembro para 1,45% em outubro) e as passagens aéreas (de 21,30% em setembro para 7,35% em outubro).

Nos demais grupos de produtos e serviços pesquisados destacam-se os Artigos de residência (-0,13%) puxados pelos eletrodomésticos (-0,57%) e o grupo Comunicação, cuja alta de 0,48% reflete o reajuste no item telefone celular (1,30%).

O grupo dos alimentos recuou 0,15%, uma queda menos intensa que a de setembro (-0,94%). Curitiba (1,00%), Goiânia (0,28%), São Paulo (0,27%) e Fortaleza (0,18%) se destacaram com variações positivas de um mês para o outro. As demais áreas ficaram entre -1,05% em Recife e
-0,09% em Salvador.

Os alimentos para consumo no domicílio ficaram, em média, 0,34% mais baratos com destaque para as quedas: alho (-9,88%), feijão-carioca (-5,95%), açúcar cristal (-3,63%) e leite longa vida (-3,52%). No lado das altas, sobressaem-se as carnes (0,54%) e as frutas (1,40%).

Já a alimentação fora de casa (0,18%) teve oscilações entre -2,18% em Brasília e 2,67% na região metropolitana de Curitiba.

GrupoVariação (%)Impacto (p.p.)
SetembroOutubroSetembroOutubro
Índice Geral0,110,340,110,34
Alimentação e Bebidas-0,94-0,15-0,23-0,04
Habitação0,260,660,040,10
Artigos de Residência0,04-0,130,00-0,01
Vestuário0,310,480,020,03
Transportes1,250,600,220,11
Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais0,100,540,010,07
Despesas Pessoais0,450,500,050,06
Educação0,090,010,010,00
Comunicação-0,180,48-0,010,02

Nos índices regionais, a região metropolitana de Curitiba ficou com o resultado mais elevado (0,66%), pois lá a alimentação fora de casa subiu 2,67%, acima da média nacional de 0,18%, e a gasolina ficou 1,26% mais cara. A queda mais intensa ocorreu na região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro (-0,08%) onde destacaram-se as quedas em ônibus urbano (-3,23%) e alimentação fora de casa (-1,31%).

RegiãoPeso Regional(%)Variação Mensal (%)Variação acumulada (%)
SetembroOutubroAno12 meses
Curitiba7,790,120,662,903,24
Salvador7,35-0,190,642,472,76
Goiânia4,44-0,290,621,301,04
Fortaleza3,49-0,240,552,212,80
São Paulo31,680,110,452,513,12
Belo Horizonte11,230,150,251,732,06
Belém4,650,080,231,311,50
Brasília3,460,690,222,613,88
Porto Alegre8,400,220,191,622,06
Recife5,05-0,09-0,072,763,78
Rio de Janeiro12,460,30-0,082,252,50
Brasil100,000,110,342,252,71

Para o cálculo do IPCA-15, os preços foram coletados no período de 14 de setembro a 11 de outubro de 2017 (referência) e comparados com aqueles vigentes de 16 de agosto a 13 de setembro de 2017 (base). O indicador refere-se às famílias com rendimento de 1 a 40 salários mínimos e abrange as regiões metropolitanas do Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador e Curitiba, além de Brasília e Goiânia. A metodologia utilizada é a mesma do IPCA, a diferença está no período de coleta dos preços e na abrangência geográfica.

Gás de botijão impulsiona prévia da inflação em outubro

Com três reajustes, o preço do gás de botijão (alta de 5,72%) foi um dos principais responsáveis pela aceleração do Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo 15 (IPCA-15) de outubro, divulgado hoje pelo IBGE, que ficou em 0,34% neste mês, acima da taxa registrada em setembro (0,11%). O acumulado no ano está em 2,25%, enquanto o dos últimos 12 meses foi de 2,71%.

O gás de botijão foi o item que mais impactou individualmente o IPCA-15 de outubro, com 0,07 ponto percentual. O aumento de 5,72% foi o maior registrado para o produto desde outubro de 2015. Enquanto isso, o grupo Habitação, do qual faz parte, teve alta de 0,66% e impactou o índice total com 0,10 ponto percentual.

#PraCegoVer gráfico IPCA15 com destaque para o mês de outubro com 5,72% e imagem de botijão de gás no fundo do gráfico

No geral, a influência do setor só foi menor que a de Transportes (impacto de 0,11 ponto percentual), afetado também pelos reajustes nos combustíveis: a gasolina teve alta de 1,45% entre setembro e outubro, mesmo com a leve desaceleração em relação período anterior, quando a taxa foi de 3,76%. Pesou ainda o aumento de 7,35% nas passagens aéreas.

O grupo dos Alimentos, por sua vez, registrou nova queda em outubro (-0,15%), ainda que menor que a de -0,94% de setembro. Contribuíram para a baixa nos preços o alho (-9,88%), o feijão-carioca (-5,95%), o açúcar cristal (-3,63%) e o leite longa vida (-3,52%). Enquanto isso, carnes (0,54%) e frutas (1,40%) tiveram alta no período.

Nos índices regionais, a região metropolitana de Curitiba teve a maior alta nos preços (0,66%), seguido de perto por Salvador (0,64%). Por outro lado, as quedas mais intensas ocorreram na regiões metropolitanas de Rio de Janeiro (-0,08%) e Recife (-0,07%).

O IPCA-15 é um indicador, calculado pelo IBGE, que mede a inflação entre a segunda metade de um mês e a primeira quinzena do mês de referência. Engloba as famílias com rendimento de um a 40 salários mínimos e abrange as regiões metropolitanas do Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador e Curitiba, além de Brasília e Goiânia.

Texto: Rodrigo Paradella
Imagem: Flickr
Gráfico: J.C. Rodrigues

DOCUMENTO: https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas-novoportal/economicas/precos-e-custos/9260-indice-nacional-de-precos-ao-consumidor-amplo-15.html

FGV. IBRE. 20-Out-2017. Índices Gerais de Preços. IGP-M Segundo Decêndio. IGP-M recua na 2ª prévia de outubro

O Índice Geral de Preços - Mercado (IGP-M)registrou, no segundo decêndio de outubro, variação de 0,30%. No mês anterior, para o mesmo período de coleta, a variação foi de 0,41%.O segundo decêndio do IGP-M compreende o intervalo entre os dias 21 do mês anterior e 10 do mês de referência.

O Índice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo (IPA) apresentou variação de 0,36%, no segundo decêndio de outubro. No mesmo período do mês anterior, a taxa foi de 0,63%. A taxa de variação dos Bens Finais passou de     -0,11% para 0,39%. A maior contribuição para este movimento teve origem no subgrupo alimentos processados, cuja taxa passou de -0,86% para 0,40%.

A taxa de variação do grupo Bens Intermediários passou de 0,35%, em setembro, para 1,29%, em outubro. O destaque coube ao subgrupo materiais e componentes para a manufatura, cuja taxa passou de -0,64% para 1,68%.

O índice referente a Matérias-Primas Brutas registrou variação de -0,80%. No mês anterior, a taxa foi de        1,91%. Os itens que mais contribuíram para este movimento foram: minério de ferro (10,42% para -5,82%), bovinos (7,62% para 1,04%) e mandioca (aipim) (2,17% para -1,11%). Em sentido oposto, destacam-se: soja (em grão) (-0,66% para 2,40%), milho (em grão) (4,70% para 9,37%) e café (em grão) (-2,96% para -0,30%).

O Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) registrou variação de 0,24%, no segundo decêndio de outubro, ante -0,10%, no mesmo período do mês anterior. Cinco das oito classes de despesa componentes do índice registraram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação. A principal contribuição partiu do grupo Alimentação      (-0,84% para 0,08%). Nesta classe de despesa, cabe mencionar o item hortaliças e legumes, cuja taxa passou de -11,70% para 4,37%.

Também apresentaram acréscimo em suas taxas de variação os grupos: Habitação (-0,25% para 0,22%), Despesas Diversas (-0,03% para 0,57%), Vestuário (0,31% para 0,80%) e Comunicação (     -0,08% para 0,28%). Nestas classes de despesa, destacam-se os itens: tarifa de eletricidade residencial (-1,17% para 0,39%), cigarros (0,03% para 1,21%), roupas (0,31% para 0,99%) e tarifa de telefone móvel (-0,16% para 0,63%), respectivamente.

Em contrapartida, apresentaram decréscimo em suas taxas de variaçãoos grupos: Transportes (0,42% para 0,21%), Educação, Leitura e Recreação (0,74% para 0,37%) e Saúde e Cuidados Pessoais (0,31% para 0,27%).Nestas classes de despesa, vale mencionar o comportamento dos itens: gasolina (1,83% para 0,92%), passagem aérea (21,20% para 8,11%) e artigos de higiene e cuidado pessoal (-0,25% para -0,79%), respectivamente.

O Índice Nacional de Custo da Construção (INCC) apresentou, no segundo decêndio de outubro, variação de 0,11%. No mês anterior, este índice variou 0,22%. O índice relativo a Materiais, Equipamentos e Serviços registrou variação de 0,18%, abaixo do resultado de setembro, de 0,41%. O índice que representa o custo da Mão de Obra registrou variação de 0,05%. No mês anterior, este índice variou 0,07%.

DOCUMENTO: http://portalibre.fgv.br/main.jsp?lumPageId=402880972283E1AA0122841CE9191DD3&contentId=8A7C82C55EC04CF1015F391CD89E3093

MERCOSUL-UE. PORTAL G1. BBC. 19/10/2017. Por que 20 anos não foram suficientes para que Mercosul e UE concluíssem tratado comercial. Processo corre novamente o risco de ser paralisado a apenas dois meses da data estimada para o fim das negociações.

A dois meses da data estimada por Mercosul e União Europeia para concluir as negociações de um tratado de livre-comércio, o processo, iniciado há quase vinte anos, corre novamente o risco de ser paralisado.
O problema desta vez é o desejo do presidente francês, Emmanuel Macron, de atualizar o mandato concedido pelos governantes europeus à Comissão Europeia (braço Executivo do bloco) para negociar com o bloco sul-americano, uma ideia que ele defenderá nesta quinta-feira, em uma cúpula em Bruxelas.
Se os líderes europeus concordarem com a ideia, as negociações deverão ser suspensas até que o novo mandato seja emitido, um processo que poderá demorar mais de dois anos.
"Levará alguns anos só para negociar (entre os países europeus) o que será esse novo mandato e apresentar à outra parte (Mercosul), que também precisa aceitar os termos. Depois (o novo mandato) tem que ser aprovado pelos governos dos 28 (membros). E quando tudo isso for feito, teremos que recomeçar (as negociações) do zero", explicou Edita Hrdá, diretora para América Latina no Serviço Europeu de Ação Exterior, quem lidera as negociações, à BBC Brasil.

20 anos de desencontros

Os representantes europeus não questionam a necessidade de atualizar um mandato concedido há vinte anos, quando comércio digital, transferência de dados, desenvolvimento sustentável, aquecimento global e cibercrime ainda não eram temas relevantes nas relações bilaterais.
No entanto, devido à pressão do tempo, preferem usar "maneiras criativas" para introduzi-los nas negociações sem que seja necessário mudar oficialmente o atual mandato, afirmou outro executivo que participa do processo, que pediu anonimato porque não está autorizado a se pronunciar sobre o assunto.
Durante os quase vinte anos em que as negociações com o Mercosul avançaram, recuaram, foram suspensas (em 2012) e relançadas (em 2016), a UE foi capaz de concluir tratados comerciais com Japão, Canadá, Colômbia, Peru, América Central e está a ponto de finalizar a modernização de seu acordo com México.
No caso do Mercosul, os europeus lidaram durante anos com um bloco internamente dividido, lembra Eleonora Catella, conselheira comercial da associação empresarial europeia Business Europe.
"No passado, o Mercosul teve problemas políticos e havia diferenças entre o nível de abertura que queria cada país. Hoje vemos que esses países, pela primeira vez, estão na mesma página com alto nível de ambição."
Segundo o executivo europeu que participa das negociações, o bloco sul-americano "não é mais difícil que outros" países com os quais a União Europeia concluiu acordos recentemente.
O Mercosul está disposto a fazer concessões em matéria de serviços, indústria e licitação pública, os setores mais importantes para a UE, assegura a fonte.
Catella concorda: "O problema agora é o contexto interno em países europeus: a Alemanha ainda não formou governo e na França há um novo presidente".

Estratégia

A representante dos empresários europeus não descarta que a manobra de Macron na cúpula desta semana seja uma estratégia para ganhar tempo frente à pressão dos agricultores franceses, descontentes com a oferta de abertura para carnes e etanol sul-americanos apresentada pela UE na última rodada de negociação com o Mercosul, no início do mês, em Brasília.
"A agricultura sempre foi um ponto sensível nessas negociações. Tem havido muitos protestos. Os agricultores temem o impacto de uma maior concorrência. Macron foi eleito recentemente, está tentando acalmar a situação", afirma também Pieter Cleppe, diretor do centro de reflexão Center for Open Europe em Bruxelas.
Ele acredita que a pressão do lobby agrícola europeu, mais forte na França e na Irlanda, mas apoiado por outros nove países, é um problema recorrente nas negociações entre europeus e sul-americanos.
"Em qualquer negociação comercial, o tipo de exportação determina que tipo de lobby sairá ao ataque. No caso do Mercosul, temos o maior exportador de carne e maior produtor de etanol e de commodities (o Brasil). Não é surpresa que os agricultores peçam protecionismo", diz Cleppe.

Agricultura como vilã

Associações europeias de agricultores, como a poderosa Copa-Cogeca, afirmam que o acordo com o Mercosul causaria perdas de até 7,8 bilhões de euros para o setor agrícola da UE.
Na França, primeiro produtor agrícola europeu e segunda potência da zona euro, o setor enfrenta uma grave crise. Sua participação na economia nacional caiu pela metade desde 1980 e representa hoje 1,5 por cento do PIB, uma porcentagem que sobe para 3,6 por cento incluindo a indústria agroalimentar.
"O lobby agrícola é muito forte em qualquer parte do mundo. É de sua natureza. A alimentação é um setor estratégico. Na Europa esse lobby é muito bem organizado e usa argumentos fortes", observa o analista do Center for Open Europe.
Se a agricultura europeia desaparecer em consequência da concorrência do Mercosul, o bloco passaria a depender de importações, afirmam os produtores europeus.
"Mas o exemplo da Nova Zelândia mostra que a abertura do mercado agrícola pode, ao contrário, levar a um aumento na produção local", observa Cleppe.
Os agricultores europeus também argumentam que seus competidores sul-americanos não estão submetidos às mesmas regras e padrões sanitários e de qualidade impostos na UE e mencionam fraudes como as denunciadas no Brasil pela operação Carne Fraca.
Essa tese é refutada pela Comissão Europeia, que destaca que um eventual tratado comercial harmonizará regras e sistemas de controle.
Para Cleppe, o interesse do lobby agrícola europeu prevalece porque falta organização dos lobbies dos setores mais interessados no acordo, não só industrial ou de serviços, mas também de consumidores.
"O lobby de consumidores deveria pressionar pela abertura comercial, porque o interesse dos consumidores deve estar em primeiro lugar - e para os consumidores é bom ter mais opções", defende o analista.

MTP. RAIS. PORTAL G1. Brasil perdeu 2 milhões de empregos formais em 2016, pior resultado em 40 anos. Resultado é pior da série da pesquisa do governo, iniciada em 1976. Informações englobam CLT, temporários e servidores públicos.
Por Alexandro Martello, G1, Brasília

O Brasil perdeu 2 milhões de empregos formais em 2016, segundo dados da Relação Anual de Informações Sociais (Rais) divulgados pelo Ministério do Trabalho nesta quinta-feira (19). O resultado é o pior da série da pesquisa, iniciada em 1976.
Foi o segundo ano consecutivo de fechamento de vagas formais. Em 2015, o país já havia perdido 1,51 milhão de empregos com carteira assinada.
Segundo o Ministério do Trabalho, as demissões atingiram mais os homens do que as mulheres no ano passado. Em 2016, 1,26 milhão de homens perderam seus empregos e 736 mil mulheres foram demitidas. No ano anterior, 1,07 milhão de homens foram demitidos, contra 438 mil mulheres.
Com essa baixa no mercado de trabalho formal, o estoque de trabalhadores que era de 48,06 milhões no final de 2015 recuou para 46,06 milhões de postos no final de 2016. Para o final de um ano, é o menor estoque desde 2011 (46,31 milhões).

Crise econômica

"Em dois anos, [o país] regrediu pelo menos uns quatro anos", declarou o coordenador de Estatísticas do Ministério do Trabalho, Mário Magalhães.
Além dos dados do Cadastro Geral de Empregados e Desempregados (Caged), que englobam os trabalhadores celetistas, os números da Rais também incluem os servidores públicos federais, estaduais e municipais, além de trabalhadores temporários.
A pesquisa, divulgada anualmente, é considerada uma das principais fontes de informações sobre o mercado de trabalho formal brasileiro.
Até então, só tinham sido divulgados os dados consolidados de 2016 referentes ao Caged, que apontou a perda de 1,32 milhão de empregos formais no ano passado.
Segundo Magalhães, 2016 representou o ápice da crise financeira. Por isso, de acordo com ele, tantos empregos foram perdidos.
"Essa crise começou no final de 2014. Em 2015, se torna evidente, principalmente a partir de abril. E 2016 é um aprofundamento dessa crise. Houve um ciclo vicioso com queda do emprego, queda da massa salarial e com encolhimento do mercado interno", declarou ele.

Número de demissões em 2016 por setor

  • Agropecuária: perda de 24 mil postos de trabalho
  • Administração pública: fechamento de 373 mil vagas
  • Serviços: demissão de 442 mil trabalhadores
  • Comércio: fechamento de 268 mil empregos
  • Construção civil: perda de 437 mil vagas
  • Serviços de utilidade pública: fechamento de 18 mil postos
  • Indústria de transformação: demissão de 419 mil trabalhadores
  • Indústria extrativa mineral: perda de 19 mil empregos

Veja o saldo de empregos por estado e a variação em 2016:




MTP. RAIS. PORTAL UOL. 19/10/2017. País perdeu 2 milhões de vagas com carteira em 2016, pior saldo em 31 anos

O Brasil fechou 2 milhões de empregos com carteira assinada em 2016, segundo dados do Ministério do Trabalho. Foi o segundo ano seguido com fechamento de vagas e o pior resultado em 31 anos.

Em 2015, tinham sido perdidas 1,5 milhão de vagas, o primeiro resultado negativo desde 1992 (-738 mil vagas).

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Os dados de 2016 foram divulgados nesta quinta-feira (19) pelo ministério e fazem parte da Rais (Relação Anual de Informações Sociais), um registro declarado anualmente por todas as empresas do país.

A Rais existe desde 1976, mas o ministério afirma que o levantamento passou por mudanças metodológicas que só permitem uma comparação estatística adequada com os dados a partir de 1985.

O registro de saldo de vagas divulgado começa em 1986. Por isso, o resultado de 2016 é o pior em 31 anos.

Serviços, construção e indústria têm maiores perdas

Os setores mais afetados foram o de serviços, construção e indústria, que perderam mais de 400 mil vagas, cada um.

  • Serviços: -442 mil (-2,6%)
  • Construção civil: -437 mil (-18%)
  • Indústria de transformação: -419 mil (-5,5%)
  • Administração pública: -373 mil (-4,1%)
  • Comércio: -268 mil (-2,8%)
  • Agropecuária: -24 mil (-1,6%)
  • Extrativa mineral: -19 mil (-8%)
  • Serviços industriais de utilidade pública: -18 mil (-4%)

Amapá é único que criou vagas

Entre os Estados mais o Distrito Federal, apenas o Amapá abriu vagas em 2016, com saldo positivo de 3.678 postos (+3%).

Do ponto de vista relativo, as maiores quedas foram no Rio de Janeiro (-6,5%), Ceará (-6,4%), Pará (-6,4%), Amazonas (-6,4%), Bahia (-6,1%) e Espírito Santo (-6%).

As maiores perdas absolutas foram em São Paulo (-503 mil vagas), Rio de Janeiro (-289 mil) e Minas Gerais (-192 mil).

Todas as regiões brasileiras fecharam vagas em 2016. Proporcionalmente, os mais afetados foram o Norte (-5,3%) e o Nordeste (-5,2%). Em números absolutos, o Sudeste foi o que mais perdeu (-1 milhão de empregos).

Outra pesquisa

O ministério também divulga regularmente dados de emprego do Caged (Cadastro Geral de Empregados e Desempregados). A pesquisa Rais, porém, é mais ampla, porque leva em conta mais categorias de trabalho, inclusive servidores públicos. Já o Caged calcula apenas o número de trabalhadores regidos pela CLT (Consolidação das Leis do Trabalho).

O Caged com o número total de vagas fechadas em 2016 foi divulgado em janeiro deste ano e mostrou que o Brasil perdeu 1,32 milhão de postos com carteira assinada no ano passado.

Também nesta quinta-feira, o ministério divulgou dados do Caged de setembro deste ano, registrando abertura de 34,4 mil vagas, sexto mês seguido de saldo positivo.

MF. 20/10/2017. Apesar de resgate líquido em setembro, Tesouro Direto bate novo recorde em número de investidores. Além disso, pequenos investidores continuam ampliando a sua participação

Em setembro, foram realizadas 181.163 operações de investimento no Tesouro Direto, no valor total de R$ 1,359 bilhão. As recompras totalizaram R$ 1,845 bilhão, dos quais R$ 1,2 bilhão (63,7%) foram referentes a títulos indexados ao IPCA (Tesouro IPCA+ e Tesouro IPCA+ com Juros Semestrais); R$ 380,5 milhões (20,6%) foram relacionadas ao título indexado à Taxa Selic (Tesouro Selic) e R$ 288,5 milhões (15,6%) a prefixados (Tesouro Prefixado e Tesouro Prefixado com Juros Semestrais).

Houve, como resultado, resgate líquido de R$ 486,6 milhões. O estoque do Tesouro Direto fechou o mês de setembro em R$ 47,6 bilhões, com redução de 0,1% em relação ao mês anterior (R$ 47,7 bilhões) e aumento de 30,0% sobre setembro de 2016 (R$ 36,6 bilhões).

O acréscimo no número de investidores que efetivamente possuem aplicações foi de 10.390. Com isso, o número de investidores ativos atingiu 541.851, o maior patamar desde o início do Programa. O crescimento em relação a setembro do ano anterior foi de 56,0%. O acréscimo mensal de investidores cadastrados foi de 60.278, totalizando recorde de 1.662.449 participantes inscritos, o que representa aumento de 70,7% nos últimos 12 meses.

As aplicações de até R$ 1 mil representaram 56,0% dos investimentos realizados, com aumento de 27,4% em relação a setembro de 2016. Este foi segundo maior valor da série histórica, superado apenas pelo recorde registrado em agosto de 2017 (57,1%). Os investimentos de até R$ 5 mil corresponderam a 79,8% das vendas ocorridas no mês. O valor médio das operações no período foi de R$ 7.499,4. Esses resultados evidenciam a continuidade do processo de democratização do Programa, cada vez mais acessível a pequenos investidores.

O título mais demandado pelos investidores foi o indexado à taxa Selic (Tesouro Selic), cuja participação no volume total de investimentos atingiu 54,2%, no valor de R$ 735,9 milhões. É o segundo maior valor mensal vendido desse título na série. O primeiro, em março de 2017 (R$ 1,15 bilhão), coincidiu com vencimento desses papéis no valor de R$ 1,54 bilhão. Os títulos indexados ao IPCA (Tesouro IPCA+ e Tesouro IPCA+ com Juros Semestrais) corresponderam a 29,5% do total e os prefixados (Tesouro Prefixado e Tesouro Prefixado com Juros Semestrais), a 16,3%.

Em relação ao prazo, 18,3% dos investimentos foram feitos em títulos com vencimentos acima de 10 anos. As aplicações em títulos com prazo entre 5 e 10 anos representaram 78,3% e as com prazo entre 1 e 5 anos, 3,4% do total.

Os títulos remunerados por índices de preços respondem pelo maior volume do estoque, alcançando R$ 29,2 bilhões (61,2% do total). Na sequência, aparecem os títulos indexados à taxa Selic, com participação de 22,2%, e os títulos prefixados, com 16,6%.

A maior parte do estoque, 43,6%, é composta por títulos com vencimento entre 1 e 5 anos. Os títulos com prazo entre 5 e 10 anos correspondem a 34,6% e os com vencimento acima de 10 anos, a 17,6% do total. A parcela com vencimento em até 1 ano (4,3%) é a menor desde dezembro de 2015.

Balanço do Tesouro Direto: http://www.tesouro.fazenda.gov.br/pt/balanco-e-estatisticas

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LGCJ.: