Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 0.7 percent. With this second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; private inventory investment decreased less than previously estimated (see "Revisions" on page 2).
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE and downturns in nonresidential fixed investment, in state and local government spending, and in exports that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, a downturn in imports, and an acceleration in federal government spending.
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the third.
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FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site.
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The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent.
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production -- increased 2.0 percent, or $88.2 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $18,148.4 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.3 percent, or $146.5 billion.
Revisions
The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected an upward revision to private inventory investment and a downward revision to imports that were partly offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending and to personal consumption expenditures. For more information, see the Technical Note. For information on revisions, see "The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
Advance Estimate Second Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter) Real GDP 0.7 1.0 Current-dollar GDP 1.5 2.0 Gross domestic purchases price index 0.2 0.4
2015 GDP
Real GDP increased 2.4 percent in 2015 (that is, from the 2014 annual level to the 2015 annual level), the same rate as in 2014.
The increase in real GDP in 2015 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, state and local government spending, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Comparing real GDP growth in 2015 with growth in 2014, real GDP increased 2.4 percent in both years, though there were offsetting movements in the components. Decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports and an acceleration in imports were offset by accelerations in PCE and in residential fixed investment, a smaller decrease in federal government spending, and accelerations in private inventory investment and in state and local government spending.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.4 percent in 2015, compared with an
increase of 1.5 percent in 2014.
Current-dollar GDP increased 3.4 percent, or $594.8 billion, in 2015 to a level of $17,942.9 billion, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent, or $684.9 billion, in 2014.
During 2015 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015), real GDP increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during 2014. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.4 percent during 2015, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent during 2014.
FULL DOCUMENT: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2016/pdf/gdp4q15_2nd.pdf
BLS. February 19, 2016. Consumer Price Index Summary. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – JANUARY 2016
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in
January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4
percent before seasonal adjustment.
An increase in the index for all items less food and energy offset a decline
in the energy index to lead to the seasonally adjusted all items index being
unchanged. The energy index fell 2.8 percent as all of its major component
indexes declined. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3
percent in January. The increase was broad-based, with most of the major
components rising, but increases in the indexes for shelter and medical care
were the largest contributors.
The food index was unchanged in January. The index for food away from home
increased, but the food at home index declined for the third consecutive
month, as five of the six major grocery store food group indexes decreased.
The all items index rose 1.4 percent over the last 12 months, compared to the
0.7-percent 12-month increase for the period ending December. The energy
index fell 6.5 percent over the past year; this was its smallest 12-month
decrease since November 2014. The food index rose 0.8 percent over the last
12 months, with the food at home index declining 0.5 percent. The index for
all items less food and energy increased 2.2 percent over the last 12 months,
a figure that has been gradually rising over the last several months.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
average
Seasonally adjusted changes from
preceding month
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. ended
2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 Jan.
2016
All items.................. .1 .0 -.1 .2 .1 -.1 .0 1.4
Food...................... .1 .2 .3 .1 -.1 -.2 .0 .8
Food at home............. .1 .2 .2 .0 -.3 -.4 -.2 -.5
Food away from home (1).. .0 .2 .5 .2 .2 .1 .3 2.7
Energy.................... .0 -1.7 -3.7 .4 .3 -2.8 -2.8 -6.5
Energy commodities....... .5 -3.4 -6.8 .9 .7 -4.8 -4.8 -8.5
Gasoline (all types).... .7 -3.4 -7.1 .9 .8 -4.8 -4.8 -7.3
Fuel oil (1)............ -3.4 -8.1 -2.4 -1.1 -1.3 -7.8 -6.5 -28.7
Energy services.......... -.6 .3 -.3 -.1 -.2 -.7 -.7 -4.7
Electricity............. -.3 .2 -.1 .1 .2 -.4 -.7 -2.4
Utility (piped) gas
service.............. -1.7 .6 -.9 -.9 -1.7 -1.9 -.6 -12.7
All items less food and
energy................. .2 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 .3 2.2
Commodities less food and
energy commodities.... -.1 -.1 .0 -.1 -.1 -.1 .2 -.1
New vehicles............ -.1 .0 .0 -.1 .0 .0 .3 .6
Used cars and trucks.... -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .1 .2 .1 .9
Apparel................. .2 .2 -.4 -.5 -.1 -.2 .6 -.5
Medical care commodities .1 .2 -.1 .2 .2 .1 .4 2.1
Services less energy
services.............. .2 .2 .3 .3 .3 .2 .3 3.0
Shelter................. .3 .2 .3 .3 .2 .2 .3 3.2
Transportation services -.1 .0 .1 .1 .5 .3 .4 2.7
Medical care services... .2 .0 .2 .7 .3 .1 .5 3.3
1 Not seasonally adjusted.
Consumer Price Index Data for January 2016
Food
The food index was unchanged in January after declining in November and
December. The index for food at home declined for the third month in a row,
falling 0.2 percent. Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes
declined in January, led by the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs,
which fell 1.3 percent. The eggs index fell sharply in January, declining 8.4
percent, its largest 1-month decline since October 2010. In contrast, the index
for fruits and vegetables increased 1.3 percent, its largest increase since
March 2011, with the fresh vegetables index rising 2.2 percent. The other major
grocery store food group indexes (cereals and bakery products, dairy and
related products, nonalcoholic beverages, and other food at home) all declined
0.2 percent. The food at home index has declined over the past 12 months,
falling 0.5 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs has fallen 3.5
percent and the dairy and related products index has declined 3.0 percent. The
other major grocery store food group indexes increased, with the fruits and
vegetables index rising 2.7 percent over the last 12 months and the remaining
indexes all advancing less than 1 percent. The index for food away from home
increased 0.3 percent in January and has risen 2.7 percent over the last
12 months.
Energy
The energy index fell 2.8 percent in January. For the second month in a row,
all the major energy component indexes declined. The gasoline index fell 4.8
percent in January. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices declined 4.4
percent in January, and the index is at its lowest level since March 2009.)
The fuel oil index fell 6.5 percent in January, while the electricity index
declined 0.7 percent and the index for natural gas decreased 0.6 percent. All
the energy component indexes have also declined over the last 12 months. The
fuel oil index has fallen sharply, declining 28.7 percent, and the index for
natural gas has decreased 12.7 percent. The gasoline index has declined 7.3
percent and the index for electricity has fallen 2.4 percent.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy percent increased 0.3 in January.
The shelter index rose 0.3 percent, with the rent index rising 0.3 percent and
the index for owners' equivalent rent increased 0.2 percent. The index for
lodging away from home also increased in January, rising 2.0 percent after
falling in December. The medical care index rose 0.5 percent in January, with
the index for prescription drugs rising 0.5 percent and the index for hospital
services increasing 0.4 percent. The apparel index turned up in January, rising
0.6 percent after a series of recent declines. The index for airline fares rose
1.2 percent after falling in December. The index for alcoholic beverages rose
0.5 percent, and the motor vehicle insurance index increased 0.4 percent. Also
increasing in January were the indexes for new vehicles (0.3 percent), tobacco
(0.2 percent), recreation (0.2 percent), used cars and trucks (0.1 percent),
and personal care (0.1 percent). The indexes for education and for communication
were both unchanged in January, while the index for household furnishings and
operations declined slightly, falling 0.1 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 2.2 percent over the past
12 months. This is its highest 12-month change since the period ending June 2012,
and exceeds the 1.9 percent average annualized increase over the last 10 years.
The index for shelter has risen 3.2 percent over the span, and the medical care
index has increased 3.0 percent. In contrast, the indexes for apparel and for
airline fares have declined over the past 12 months.
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.4 percent
over the last 12 months to an index level of 236.916 (1982-84=100). For the month,
the index increased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
increased 1.2 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 231.061
(1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal
adjustment.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 1.0
percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent on
a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12
months are subject to revision.
FULL DOCUMENT: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
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LGCJ.:
